EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT THU APR 29 1999
A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HIGH
VALLEY... AND DESERTS. IT WILL BE DRIER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LOW QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. ONE IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND LOW JUST EXITING COUNTY WARNING AREA AT THIS TIME.
LAST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS ENDED ABOUT 2 HOURS AGO. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
NWSFO OXNARD WILL LOWER POPS FOR REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND LOW BRUSHING MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS OF SRN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST FWC GUIDANCE
DOUBLED POPS ACROSS INLAND EMPIRE AND MOJAVE DESERT FROM PREVIOUS
RUN... TO 75-80 PERCENT. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS VIEWED VIA AWIPS FOR
INLAND EMPIRE SHOW WARMING ALOFT...ABOVE 800 MB...IMPLYING A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE INCREASING AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME... CONSENSUS IS TO LET THE
CLOUD/PRECIP FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY RIDE AND HANDLE WITH NOWCASTS IF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO INDEED DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TO MOJAVE
DESERT FRIDAY MORNING. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES COME UP ABOUT 30
METERS PER DAY AND 1000-500 MB ABOUT 60 METERS PER DAY. FRIDAY
FORECASTS FOR INTERIOR ZONES ARE CURRENTLY A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAYS
HIGHS...WILL ADJUST UPWARD ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES.
AN INTERESTING SIDE NOTE...THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE RUC AND ETA...AND
THE 18Z MESO ETA ALL INDICATED A COASTAL EDDY DEVELOPING WITHIN NEXT
12 HOURS. INVERSION IN LOW LEVELS NOT YET IN PLACE OR EXPECTED TO BE
LOW AND STRONG ENOUGH TO CAP MARINE LAYER. SAN DIEGO COAST AND VALLEY
ZONES ALREADY HAVE MENTION OF INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING SO EITHER WAY ITS COVERED.
SAN 1330
.SAN...NONE.
BALFOUR
FXUS66 KSTO 290401 ca
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
931 AM EDT FRI APR 30 1999
12Z RAOBS SHOW DISTINCT LOWERING OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AS IS BORNE
OUT BY SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOPS AS WELL. WITH A SW TO W SURFACE
WIND FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CENTRAL FLORIDA...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD SYSTEM WEAK AND LIMITED AND POPS PERCENTAGE WILL
BE LOWERING THROUGH DAY. BUT UPSTREAM ROABS INDICATING AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 09Z RUC INDICATES ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING
SE INTO GUFMEX AND IMPINGING SW FL LATE IN AFTERNOON. PLAN TO JUST
TWEEK ZFP S FL ZONES A SMIDGE BUT REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR
THE CURRENT PACKAGE. NO CHANGES TO CWF ZONES AT THIS TIME.
.MIA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FLAGLER BEACH...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TARPON SPRINGS TO APALACHICOLA...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FLAGLER BEACH.
FXUS62 KTBW 300751 fl
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
955 AM EDT FRI APR 30 1999
FORECAST BASICALLY LOOKS GOOD. MESOETA AND RUC MODELS SHOWS
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THEN
CURRENTLY FORECAST SO WILL INCREASE THEM THERE SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.
.CRW...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.
.END / AAR
FXUS63 KLMK 300728 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED WARNING SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
950 AM EDT FRI APR 30 1999
MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY WEAK INVERTED TROF OVR THE MTNS AND
SFC HIGH NOSING INTO THE AREA E OF THE MTNS. MEANWHILE...CUTOFF
500MB LOW IS FAR ENUF S OF THE AREA TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE REGION. THAT IS CERTAINLY A RELIEF GIVEN THE FACT THAT
BEACH MTN NC WAS 28F WITH MODERATE SNOW AND 6 INCHES ON THE GROUND
THIS MORNING AT 7AM. CUTOFF LOWS...SPRING...AND MOUNTAINS OFTEN PAINT
AN UGLY PICTURE.
MORNING SOUNDINGS...LAMP DATA AND 00Z MOS GIVE THE AREA MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RUC SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. IN
ADDITION...MOS NUMBERS HAVE BEEN RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEG TOO COOL DURING
THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS FAR AS CLOUDS ARE CONCERNED...ONLY SOME PATCHY
THIN CIRRUS AND PERHAPS SOME SCT STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT
SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO RUIN A M/S FCST.
.LWX...SMALL CRAFT ADVSY MD PORTION OF THE CHES BAY S OF DRUM PT.
WALSTON
FXUS61 KLWX 301317 md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
935 AM EDT FRI APR 30 1999
WITH 950MB WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS...LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP
BEFORE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS THIS AM ABOUT 2 DEGS BELOW EVEN RUC
FORECAST. EVEN WITH LOWER 850 TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL THINK 65 TO 70
WILL BE GOOD FOR HERE...FEW PLACES SOUTH OF GLR IN THE INTERIOR COULD
GET INTO LOW 70S.
WILL WAIT FOR WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE TO UPDATE TO TAKE OUT THE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THIS MORNING. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP SOME TEMPS TO
OUR SOUTH.
.APX...NONE.
FARINA
FXUS63 KDTX 300818 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
928 AM MDT FRI APR 30 1999
UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED IN MANY INSTANCES DUE MAINLY TO PERSISTENCE OF
COLD AIR DOME FROM ABOUT BILLINGS WEST AND RESULTANT
FOGGY...STRATUS...AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS.
AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FOR BILLINGS AROUND 1420Z SHOWS COLD AIR DOME GOING AT
LEAST TO 8,000 FEET MSL AND ARGUABLY TO 12,000 FEET MSL (THE SAME HEIGHT
AS YESTERDAY). WIND PROFILE TODAY FROM SOUNDING IS STILL MAINLY SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY. FREEZING LEVEL IS ABOUT 10,000 FEET MSL. LAPSE RATE
ABOVE THE COLD AIR DOME IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. HENCE...AM NOT
ANTICIPATING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE BILLINGS AREA.
CAPES THAT THE 12Z RUC REVEALS ARE RATHER HIGH BOTH OUT EAST AND OVER
SHERIDAN. MODIFICATION OF THIS FOR SHERIDAN BASED ON THE RIW SOUNDING
THIS MORNING REDUCE CAPES AT SHR TO PRACTICALLY ZERO. SOME POSITIVE
CAPES DO EXIST EXTREME EAST WITH MODIFICATIONS...SO WILL INTRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME NORTHEAST OVER THE BILLINGS AREA...THIS MAY
BRING IN SLIGHT DRYING AT LOWER LEVELS. MIXING TEMPERATURES DOWN USING
THE AIRCRAFT SOUNDING INDICATES THAT NO TEMPERATURE MODIFICATIONS NEED
BE DONE HERE...BUT WILL BE NECESSARY FARTHER WEST. FARTHER
EAST...ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES NEED TO BE DONE IN THE ZONES
CLOSE TO THE LOW CLOUD BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST HIGHS THERE.
ZONE GROUPINGS AS GIVEN PRESENTLY LOOK GOOD. CHB
BIL LE 051/041 068/044 066 52734
LVM .. 042/036 062/... ... 52434
HDN .. 054/039 070/... ... 52734
MLS .. 070/049 075/045 ... 52334
4BQ .. 062/045 073/... ... 52334
BHK .. 067/047 070/... ... 52334
SHR EB 058/043 069/041 066 52434
FXUS65 KGGW 301524 mt
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
220 AM EDT FRI APR 30 1999
.DISC...3 MAJOR SHT RANGE MDLS INDICATE INCREDIBLY STRG OMEGA BLCK WL
CONT AT LST THRU THE WEEKEND. REX BLCK OVR SERN US WITH TMPS SOME 20
DEGS COOLER THAN HERE YSTDY! ALL MDLS STL KEEP SERN LO WELL S AND E
OF FA. WHILE OVRALL PTN WL CHANGE LTL THERE ARE 2 POT FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT. 1ST IS BTCH OF AC CURRENTLY MVG FM GULF OF ME...SWRD THRU
CT VLY AND EVN TRYING TO WRK INTO HUDSON VLY. SO FAR THESE CLDS APPR
2B DRYING OUT ONCE THEY REACH THE HUDSON VLY AND SHOW NO SIGNS OF
PROGESSING FRTHR W. CURRENT RUC (AS WELL AS OTR MDLS) KP US BASICALLY
CLD FREE. AT WORST...MAY START THE DAY OUT WITH SOME PTCHY CLDS BUT
THAT SHLD BE IT. THE ONLY OTR FLY IN THE OINTMENT WB THE POT FOR A
BCK DR CLD FNT WHICH CLD WRK THRU THE CT AND EVN HUDSON VLYS LTR ON
SUN INTO MON. F60 AVN DOES NOT FAVOR THE POT BCK DR 2 REACH OUR RGN
(WHICH IS WHAT I WL FOLLOW) BUT NEVERTHELESS POSS WL CERTAINLY HV 2B
WATCHED.
DESPITE THESE 2 OINTMENTS...NO REAL CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE RA
ANYTIME SOON. OBVIOUSLY WE NEED SOME H20 AND THAT NEED WL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AS 2 THINGS HAPPEN. TMPS ELEVATE (EVN IF
BCKDR SIT UNFOLDS) AND ALSO NEW GROWTH SHLD REALLY BEGIN TO GROW.
SINCE THE TOP SOIL IS DRY MOISTURE WL HV 2B TAPPED FRTHR DWN INTO THE
GRND. ALSO FLKS WB WATERING THEIR LAWNS AND CLEANING THEIR CARS WHICH
CLD DEPLETE THE WATER TABLE A BIT. STL NOT OFFICIALLY A DROUGHT IN
OUR HSA BUT GETTING CLS.
.FIRE WX DANGER...FORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT WIND WL RELAX A BIT DRG
THE NXT FEW DAYS AND SFC GRAD RELAXES. THE SAME WL HAPPEN ALFT SO EVN
WITH EXCELLENT MIXING THE NXT CPL DAYS DON/T SEE OVRALL WIND MUCH
EXCEEDING 15 MPH. HOWEVER WITH THE DRY GRND AND STRG HEATING LOCAL
THERMALS CLD REACH HIER AMNTS ESP NR THE EDGE OF THE VLY FLR AND RISE
TO THE MTNS. A FIRE WX STATEMENT WB ISSUED 2 CONTINE IMPENDING DANGER
AND STRESS LOCAL THERMAL GUSTS.
OVERALL CONTINUITY FM PREVIOUS FCST IS FOLLOWED EXCEPT WL TEND 2
RAISE TMPS A CAT TDY. FWC/FANS HV APPRD 2 CAUGHT ON BETTER 2 CURRENT
TRNDS BUT I STL THINK WITH DRY SOIL MAY B A TAD LO TDY. ALSO WL BEND
WND NE IN ELEVATED AREAS.
WRKZFP AVBL BUT MAY BE FINE TUNED DEPENDING ON WHAT CLDS IN NE DO NXT
CPL OF HRS. STL LKG AT DRIEST APRIL IN ALB THIS CENTURY!
.ALB...NONE.
HWJIV
FXUS71 KOKX 300610 ny
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH/DURHAM, NC
1000 AM EDT FRI APR 30 1999
RAIN SHIELD OVER SRN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NC GRADUALLY SHIFTING S.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EWD. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACES...DEPICTING STRONG
DOWNGLIDE OVER AREA. THUS WILL MENTION RAIN DIMINISHING EARLY IN FAR
SOUTHERN REACHES OF CWA.
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...STILL EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BUT
MAY NOT BE UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE EXPECTING SOME SUN
LATE...WILL LEAVE CURRENT TEMP FORECAST AS IS. IN THE SOUTH...CLOUDS
AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT LOWERING HIGH TEMPS A CAT.
OVERALL...00Z MODELS PERFORMED POORLY IN DEPICTING DEEPENING LOW OFF
SC/NC COAST. MESOETA/RUC 09Z CLOSEST BUT EVEN MESOETA WAS OFF 3-4 MB
AT 12Z.
.RDU...NONE.
WSS
FXUS62 KILM 301338 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
915 AM EDT FRI APR 30 1999
12Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THIS SFC HIGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK
HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SPINNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR TODAY'S FORECAST. CIRRUS
SKIMMING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY (FROM THE
UPPER LOW) SHOULD REMAIN THIN TODAY AS IT STAYS AT BAY WITH CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST. RUC AND PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS
STILL INDICATE SOME H85 MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE PA MOUNTAINS
TODAY. THIS COULD POP SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS WHICH COULD ALSO ADVECT
INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST SHOULD SUFFICE.
USING ILN SOUNDING THIS AM TO CALCULATE ENERGY BLOCKS WITH FULL SUN
POTENTIAL...FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S
MOST LOCATIONS. SHALLOW INVERSION FROM SFC TO 900 MB WILL MIX OUT
AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE LOWER 60S. WITH CONTINUED WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 60S...THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIR TO MIX UP TO 750 MB. WITH A
TIGHTER H85 TO H7 FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTH (25 TO 30 KTS)...SOME
OF THIS WIND WILL TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. THUS...WILL ADD LOCAL
GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.ILN...NONE.
HICKMAN
FXUS71 KCLE 300704 oh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1013 AM EDT FRI APR 30 1999
CALLS TO THE MTNS SHOW THAT SNOW LEVEL IS SOMEWHERE AROUND 3500 FEET
WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY CONFINED TO 4000 FT PLUS. WE DID GET A
REPORT OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ON THE MACON/CLAY COUNTY LINE...BUT THIS
APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED. THE QUESTION FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTN IS HOW MUCH MORE PCPN WL FALL OVER THE MTNS...AND HOW QUICKLY
TO END THE PCPN EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE 09Z RUC HAS THE CLOSED LOW
SAGGING SLOWLY S AND THE SYSTEM TAKING ON MORE OF AN E-W
ORIENTATION VS THE N-S ORIENTATION IT HAD EARLIER. THIS WOULD IMPLY
DRYING OVER THE NRN AND WRN ZONES...WHICH IS HAPPENING ATTM W/SVH
CLR BLO 120 AND HKY W/A SCT MID DECK. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING
QUITE A BIT AND RETURNS ON THE 0.5 DEG TILT HAVE ALL BUT CLEARED NC.
RUC KEEPS PCPN OVER THE UPSTATE MOST OF THE DAY HOWEVER...AND IT
WL BE VERY CLOSE ON WHETHER PCPN FALLS IN THE MTNS.
PLAN TO TAPER PCPN OFF IN NC COUNTIES BUT CONTINUE ALL DAY SC ZONES.
WL ALSO TAPER OFF PCPN ALL MTN COUNTIES...BUT MENTION A FEW INCHES
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WL NOT GO W/ANY KIND
OF ADVISORY DUE TO HIGH SNOW LEVELS...THOUGH WL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
LLVL DRYING DOES TO THE WET BULB ZEROS. AS FAR AS WINDS GO...SECOND
GATE OF THE VAD HAS 50 KTS. THIS WL MIX DOWN IN THE NC COUNTIES WHERE
PCPN HAS ENDED...AND WINDS IN THE UPSTATE HAVE BEEN IN THE WINDY CAT
MOST OF TDA ALREADY. WL HOLD 15 TO 25 MPH WORDING WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AND UPGRADE LATER IF NEEDED. CURRENT TEMPS LOOK GOOD ESP W/SOME
BREAKS BY LATE AFTN.
.GSP...WND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES SC ZONES
MCAVOY
FXUS62 KCHS 301411 sc
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
942 AM EDT FRI APR 30 1999
RUC AND MESO ETA SHW SFC LO MEADRG OFF THE SC CST TDA THEN PULLG
OUT NWD THS EVE. THS WL KEEP STG LO LVL FORCG OVR AREA TDA. VAD
WNDS SHW 50-55 KTS. WL THEREFORE TAKE OUT MENTION OF RAIN ENDG
AND LOWER TEMPS. IF RAIN TAPERS OFF WINDS WL INCR AND WL KEEP
WIND ADVYS UP. TA
.CAE...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ENTIRE CWA.
TA
FXUS72 KCAE 301321 sc
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 AM EDT FRI APR 30 1999
ATTM WV SHOWING S/WV DROPPING INTO TROF OVR SE WITH PCPN CONTG OVR MUCH
OF THE AREA. THIS SYS SHD MOV OFFSHR THIS EVE TAKING THE DP LYR MOISTURE
AND UVV WITH IT. IN THE MEANTIME THE ETA/RUC DVLP LLJ OF 50 KTS WITH
BNDRY LYR WNDS SPDS IN THE LOW/MID 30S AS LOW DVLPS OFFSHR. EVEN WITH
COOL STABLE AMS IN THE LOWER LVLS BLV SPDS CUD BE IN THE 25/35 MPH RANGE
LATER THIS MRNG/AFTN AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. NELY LOW LVL FLOW AND PCPN THIS AM WL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE 50 TO
55 DEGREE RANGE. AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM LOW MOVS EWD...AWAY FM THE AREA
WINDS AND CLDS WL DCRS AND TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 60S FOR FRI. ATTM THREAT
OF TSTMS IS REMOTE AND WL NOT INCLUDE IN THE ZNS.
CAE RB 052/044 067/045 076 25910
AGS RB 053/045 067/044 077 25910
.CAE...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ENTIRE CWA.
CDL
FXUS62 KGSP 300610 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
945 AM MDT FRI APR 30 1999
SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT THINGS ARE
NOT MOVING MUCH. THERE IS STILL A SWATH OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-NORTHERN PLAINS AS MOISTURE
IS PUMPED UP FROM THE GULF AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW AND THE GREAT
LAKES HIGH.
12Z RUC IS SHOWING THAT DRIER AIR AT 850 AND 700 MB WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z TODAY...AND WHAT
I'VE SEEN SO FAR ON THE NGM AGREES. LAMP MOS EVEN CLEARS RAPID CITY
OUT BY 01Z THIS EVENING.
FOR THE ZONES...I HAVE CHANGED A FEW THINGS THIS MORNING...UPPED THE
WINDS IN THE NW AND IN NE WY. ALSO...SOME OF THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES WERE ALREADY NEAR THIER FORECAST HIGH...SO I UPPED
TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES. I SPLIT OFF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. THE NORTHERN HILLS ARE PARTLY CLOUDY
FROM LOOING AT SATELLITE DATA...WHILE THE REST OF THE HILLS REMAIN
UNDER THE LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG. WITH THE DRIER AIR APPROACHING
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE LIGHT SHOWERS TO END BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
.KUNR...NONE.
FRANSEN
FXUS63 KABR 301543 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 AM EDT FRI APR 30 1999
30/03Z MESOETA AND 09Z RUC CONTINUE TO HOLD A LOW-LAYER MOIST SLOT
WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN SPINE THIS MORNING. WEAK AND ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA TODAY.
THIS...ALONG WITH SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE...WERE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEPART...THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA BECOMES PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH
AND ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES APPEAR IN ORDER
WITH SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE HANGING ON AT 21Z. WILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT POP IN THE SOUTH FOR LIGHT RAIN. WILL WAIT FOR 14Z
TEMPERATURES FOR TRENDS...THOUGH EXPECT A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT.
DM
FXUS74 KMEG 300709 tn
WEST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1205 PM CDT FRI APR 30 1999
...UPDATED FOR WATCH/ADVY SECTION...
LTST IR/LTG COMPOSITE SHOWS A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION FROM
THE ERN NM PLAINS SOUTH INTO THE WTX HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS AREA IS
ALONG AXIS OF MAX LO LVL CONVERGENCE...H8 THTE RDG AND ALONG SHARP
GRADIENT OF MID LVL LAPSE RATES. GOOD H8 INFLOW AND SRLY MID LEVEL
FLOW HAS RESULTED IN TRAINING OF CELLS ACROSS THAT REGION FOR SOME
TIME NOW. HOWEVER...12Z RUC AND 88D TRENDS INDICATE SLOW EWD
MOVEMENT W/ THIS AXIS OF CONVECTION MVG INTO THE WRN SOPLNS AND WRN
PERMIAN LATE TODAY. SVR THREAT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ACROSS LBB
CWA TODAY W/ LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AND LOW LVL SHEAR
FAIRLY WEAK.
HAVING SAID ALL THAT...FOCUS FOR PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN SOPLNS
DOWN INTO THE WRN PERMIAN AND UPPER TRAN PECOS. WILL ISSUE FFA FOR
THIS AREA FOR THE AFTN AND TREND FIRST PD POPS ACROSS FA
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS MAY NEED ADJUSTING AS WELL W/ BINOVC NOTED ACROSS
SRN ZONES ATTM. CLEARING LINE BEHIND CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR
RUIDOSO SE TO THE GUADALUPE MTNS.
.LBB...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTN FOR WRN SOUTH PLAINS...WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN...UPPER TRANS PECOS...GUADALUPE MTNS AND BIG BEND
AREA. SVR TSTM WATCH WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WESTERN PERMIAN AND
TRANS PECOS REGION.
CBD
FXUS64 KMAF 301640 tx
WEST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 AM CDT FRI APR 30 1999
LTST IR/LTG COMPOSITE SHOWS A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION FROM
THE ERN NM PLAINS SOUTH INTO THE WTX HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS AREA IS
ALONG AXIS OF MAX LO LVL CONVERGENCE...H8 THTE RDG AND ALONG SHARP
GRADIENT OF MID LVL LAPSE RATES. GOOD H8 INFLOW AND SRLY MID LEVEL
FLOW HAS RESULTED IN TRAINING OF CELLS ACROSS THAT REGION FOR SOME
TIME NOW. HOWEVER...12Z RUC AND 88D TRENDS INDICATE SLOW EWD
MOVEMENT W/ THIS AXIS OF CONVECTION MVG INTO THE WRN SOPLNS AND WRN
PERMIAN LATE TODAY. SVR THREAT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ACROSS LBB
CWA TODAY W/ LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AND LOW LVL SHEAR
FAIRLY WEAK.
HAVING SAID ALL THAT...FOCUS FOR PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN SOPLNS
DOWN INTO THE WRN PERMIAN AND UPPER TRAN PECOS. WILL ISSUE FFA FOR
THIS AREA FOR THE AFTN AND TREND FIRST PD POPS ACROSS FA
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS MAY NEED ADJUSTING AS WELL W/ BINOVC NOTED ACROSS
SRN ZONES ATTM. CLEARING LINE BEHIND CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR
RUIDOSO SE TO THE GUADALUPE MTNS. SFD WILL BE UPDATED WHEN ACTUAL
FFA OUTLINE IS COMPLETE.
.LBB...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTN FOR WRN AREAS OF LBB CWA AND WRN
AREAS OF MAF CWA.
CBD
FXUS74 KFWD 301613 AMD tx
WEST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
339 AM CDT FRI APR 30 1999
OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES IN PLACE MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AS UP STREAM LOW APPROACHING WESTERN CANADA MOVES CLOSE ENOUGH
TO KICK THIS SYSTEM OUT. EXPECT THIS TO BE A SLOW PROCESS WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO REMAIN ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH
PLAINS/NRN PERMIAN BASIN. RUC DEPICTING 5H JET SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS IT RIDES AROUND THE UPPER LOW. RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION EXPECTED TO ENHANCE PRECIP OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AS
CURRENT CONVECTION SHIFTS EASTWARD. THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AT 850 AND
700 BOTH TO BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW. APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
WESTWARD TO THE NM/TX BORDER. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE WESTERN AREAS TODAY. PRECIP CHANCES TO BE LOWER OVER
THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY TO MOVE OUT TONIGHT LIKELY ENHANCING PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. MODELS
SHOWING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY
EVENING LOOKS TO BE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CLOUD
COVER TODAY TO LIMIT HEATING ENOUGH TO KEEP SVR CHANCE LOW FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER SE NM
AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING.
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS MOST AREAS AS CLOUD
COVER HOLDS ON THROUGH THE DAY.
LBB TT 062/052 065/051 776
.LBB...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TDY TX ZN21>23-27>29-33>35-39>41.
MM
FXUS64 KHGX 300832 COR tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1013 AM EDT FRI APR 30 1999
LTST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW JUST OFF THE SC CST WITH A STRENGTH
OF ARND 4 MB. RUC SEEMS TO BE HANDLNG THE POS AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW THE BEST...WITH ETA AND NGM APPROX 5MB TOO WK. VIS SHOWS SOME
BRKS IN THE CLDS ACRS NC AND SE VA. BUT XPCT THE CU FIELD DEVNG ACRS
THE OCEAN TO MOVE INTO THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...THIN CI IS
SPREADNG N SO WL LEAVE CUR FCST ALONE. THE MAJOR PROB OF THE DAY IS
THE WNDS. OBS IN NC ARE SHOWNG SUSTAINED WND SPEEDS APPROACHNG WND
ADV CRIT. XPCT THE LOW TO REMAIN NEARLY STAT OFF SC COAST. SO WTH THE
GRAD INC SOMEWHAT THIS AFT...WL GO WITH A WND ADV FOR CNTYS THAT
BORDER THE ALBERMARLE SND. WL UP WNDS A TAD FOR HAMPTON RDS AND KEEP
BREEZY COND FOR MOST OTHER LOC BUT THE NW PORTION. OTHERWISE...THNK
TEMPS ARE ON TRACK.
CWF...WL ADD SCA TO REMAINDER OF BAY IN RESPONSE TO WND SPEED INC
THIS AFT. EXPANDED HVY SF ADV N TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AS WAVES ARE
XPCTED TO REACH 8 FT.
.AKQ...WND ADV...NCZ015>017,030>032, HEAVY SURF ADVISORY FM CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT TO CURR BEACH LIGHT. SCA BAY/CSTL WTRS AND CURR SND.
SHADE
FXUS61 KRNK 301408 va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1003 AM EDT FRI APR 30 1999
KFCX 88D OTS THRU THIS AFTN.
MORN SFC FEATURES CONT TO SHOW STAGNANT LOW PRES JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WITH CONVEYOR BELT OF RH WRAPPING BACK TO UPR
SUPPORT OVER WRN NC. PRES RISES INDICATE DRY AIR MAKING SOME
PROGRESS OVER VA WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL RH REMAINING WHILE DEEPER
MSTR LINGERS INTO NC. LATEST REG RADAR MOSAICS SHOW TOP EDGE OF
PRECIP GRDLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS WITH ONLY A FEW
SPOTS OF -RA REMAINING ATTM. LATEST RUC/MESO-ETA CONT THE SLOW
DRYING TREND THRU THE AFTN WITH THE UPR SYSTEM FINALLY SINKING
SOUTH...ALLOWING MORE NEG THETA ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE TO FILTER IN.
MAY NEED TO MENT SOME SPRINKLES FAR SRN ZONES PER LINGERING INVERTED
TROF/UPSLOPE OTRW CAN REMOVE POP AS SIG -RA/-SN ALL BUT DONE.
OTRW...BASED ON VIS PICS WILL ARRANGE SKY COVER FROM MAINLY SNY FAR
N/NE ZONES INCLUDING SE WVA TO PC SRN VA CTYS FOR CI OVC TO MNLY
CLDY NC ZONES. 12Z THICKNESS NUBMERS SUGGEST SOME LOCATIONS...WHERE
MORE SUN DOES OCCUR TO REACH 60 THIS AFTN BUT APRS OVERALL TREND OF
50S GOOD PER CLDS/SFC NE TRAJ. MAY BUMP UP IN SPOTS OTRW FEW CHGS.
.RNK...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
JH
FXUS71 KRLX 301357 va
WYOMING STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
955 AM MDT FRI APR 30 1999
LO OVR DESERT S.W. CONTS TO PUMP VRY JUICY AIR INTO SE WY...E OF
CONT DVD. NEW NGM RUN HAS REVERSED ITS TREND OF RELATIVELY LTL QPF
FOR CYS TDA. 12Z RUC RUN CONSISTENT WITH 00Z CSU RAMS RUN WITH HVYST
QPF FM SNWY RNG TO JUST E OF CYS. STILL LOOKS LK SML STREAM AND
PSBLY LCLZD URBAN FLOODG PROBLM. ANY DECENT CNVCTN...WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE HVY RNFL IN SHRT TIME SHLD RMN IN S-CNTRL WY WHERE AMS XPCTD
TO GET WKLY UNSTBL. XPCT SNW LVL TO BE AT TOPS SNWY RNG TDA BUT LWR
TO ABT 8 KFT TNGT...WHICH IS STILL VRY SML AREA IN SE WY. I-80 JUST
E LAR AT 8.5 KFT WL PROBLY GET SLUSHY AGN. DUE RPTS FM CONVERSE CNTY
AND XPCTD RNFL THERE TDA WL DROP ZN 59 FM SML STRM FLOOD ADVSY.
WITH MID LVL HGT FALLS ENTERG PAC NW...AND DCRSD WVLNGTH BTWN DESERT
S.W. AND CANADIAN CST LO...XPCT DESERT S.W. STRM TO START GETTG KICKED
OUT. WITH BLOCKG RDG OVR MISSISSIPPI RVR AREA...IT WON'T RACE EWD.
.CYS...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVSRY TDA PRTS OF SE WY.
ZNS 64..66..67..69.
COX
FXUS75 KCYS 301609 wy
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 PM EDT FRI APR 30 1999
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. OFFSHORE BUOYS REPORTING WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH
SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
SHORT TERM MODELS...RUC AND MESOETA...DOING A GOOD JOB OF HANDLING
THE LOW OFF THE SC/GA COAST AND PICKING UP THE VORTICITY MAX OVER
THE FL/GA BORDER. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE VORTICITY MAX MOVING
INTO NORTH FLORIDA. WILL KEEP CURRENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN FORECAST.
SOME SITES ALREADY AT FORECAST LOWS AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
NORTH PART OF THE AREA. PLAN TO SEPARATE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA ZONE
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND ADJUST THE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE REST OF
THE ZONES.
LONG TERM... WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW LOW STILL DIGGING
OFF THE SC/GA COAST AS INDICATED BY MODELS. SHOULD SEE SYSTEM DROP
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TIGHTNING THE GRADIENT OVER EAST
COASTAL FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BUOY 09 RUNNING SEAS
ABOUT 8 FEET WITH WINDS AT 20 GUST TO 25 KT. WITH THOSE CONDITIONS
JUST OFF COCOA BEACH SHOULD SEE SIMILAR WINDS AND SEAS EXTEND OVER
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COASTAL FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. SO I
WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DOWN TO STUART. SEE NO REASON
TO CHANGE HEAVY SURF ADVISORY OR COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
IF GRADIENT INCREASES OVERNIGHT...WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT PUT UP A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SATURDAY.
.MLB...
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH/HEAVY SURF ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH-SEBASTIAN INLET
THROUGH SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO STUART.
WIMMER/DECKER
FXUS62 KTAE 010129 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
925 PM EDT FRI APR 30 1999
BUOY DATA SHOW 30-40 KT WINDS ON NRN QUADRANT OF STRONG SURFACE LOW
OFF GA/SC COAST. CURRENT PRESSURE TENDENCIES AND RUC PROGS SHOW
THIS FEATURE DEEPENING SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING S TO KJAX COAST.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND SURFACE
PRESSURE RIDGE JUST E OF MS VALLEY WILL KEEP WINDS QUITE STRONG
OVERNIGHT OVER OUR CWA. 88D VAD WIND PROFILES ALREADY SHOW 35 KT NE
FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK. GOOD MIXING OF THIS WIND MOMENTUM OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS SHOULD JUSTIFY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVERNIGHT. KTLH
WSR-88D AND METARS INDICATE LIGHT RAIN OVER OUR SW GA ZONES CLOSEST
TO SURFACE LOW...WITH SOME ACTIVITY SPREADING S. WILL INCLUDE
CHANCE LIGHT RAIN FOR FL ZONE UPDATE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SATELLITE AND RUC SUGGEST BEST CHANCES FOR CLEARING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE OVER FAR WRN ZONES...BUT BELIEVE EVEN OUR NW
CWA SHOULD STILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK
ALL RIGHT. INPUT ALWAYS WELCOME.
TJT
FXUS62 KJAX 010125 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
830 PM MDT FRI APR 30 1999
00Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED UPPER LEVEL HIGH DENSITY
WINDS INDICATE UPPER LOW OVER SW UTAH WITH HARD TO DEFINE VORT MAXES
ROTATING AROUND IT. RIVERTON RADAR INDICATES JUST LIGHT SHOWERS IN
WYOMING...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). 00Z
HIGH DENSITY WINDS SHOW A JET MAX OVER COLORADO/SOUTHERN WYOMING WHICH
WOULD INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL START TO LIFT TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AS THE OMEGA BLOCK BREAKS DOWN. THE KICKER IS A STRONG JET MOVING
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH.
THE 00Z RUC APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TONIGHTS FORECAST WHEN
COMPARED TO THE HIGH DENSITY WINDS. UPPER LOW SLOWLY FILLS AND MOVES
EAST OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COULD KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS...BUT WITH
DYNAMICS MAINLY TO THE SW OF THE CWA AND LOSS OF HEATING WILL DROP POPS
IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHOULD INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/DRIZZLE SO WILL DECREASE IT IN THE ZONES. RUC
INDICATES THAT BY SATURDAY MORNING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE
DIVIDE WITH A CONTINUED STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION FOR A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
WILL MAKE UPDATES TO ZONES. STROBIN
BIL EE 041/067 046/065 040 632443
LVM .. 037/061 041/060 ... 632433
HDN .. 040/068 044/067 ... 632443
MLS .. 050/073 050/069 ... 632343
4BQ .. 046/070 047/067 ... 632343
BHK .. 045/070 049/068 ... 632344
SHR EE 044/068 042/064 038 633443
FXUS65 KGGW 302035 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
930 PM EDT FRI APR 30 1999
...SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW CAUSING STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS...
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
...IN LINE W/ THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY WHERE THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED MUCH OF THE DAY. LARGE AREAS OF RAFL
CONTINUE TO WORK INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ILM
AND NCA. ALREADY REPORTS OF PONDING FROM CONTINUOUS RAINS...MAY
EVEN HAVE SOME URBAN-TYPE FLOODING TO CONTEND W/ AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON.
COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS MID-UPR LOW
DRIFTS ESEWD. LATEST RUC COMPLIMENTS EARLIER MODEL RUNS BY SHOWING
AN ATYPICAL JOG OF THE SFC LOW TO THE S. FEELING HERE IS THAT THIS
SOLUTION MAY TAKE THE LOW TOO FAR S GIVEN THE PROJECTED EWD DRIFT
OF THE UPPER LOW.
NO BRAINER W/ POPS GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE LIFT
...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST AND STRONG BLYR
INFLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS COAST
AND LIKELY POPS FOR THE INLAND AREAS.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE HOVERING AROUND 50 MOST LOCATIONS..DON/T
FORESEE MUCH CHANGE THERE. AS FOR WINDS...WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY
POSTED FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED.
HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED AS OF 830 PM EDT...WE HAVE HAD NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF BEACH EROSION AND TIDAL OVERFLOW...ESPECIALLY THE EWD
FACING BEACHES OF OUR NC CWA. DO TO GEOGRAPHICAL CONFIGURATION
APPEARS THAT THE LEG FROM SOUTHPORT TO CRESCENT BEACH WILL BE THE
LEAST AFFECTED AREA FROM SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND TIDAL
OVERWASH. WILL KEEP COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NEXT HIGH TIDE SLATED FOR 830 AM EDT
ESPECIALLY IF THE CURRENT WIND TRAJECTORIES DO NOT BACK A BIT MORE.
CWF: LATEST RUC SHOWS PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS W SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT MYR HAVE STEADILY INCREASED OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. AT THE MOMENT FEEL THAT THE CURRENT PLACEMENT
OF STORM/GALE WARNINGS IS REASONABLE. WILL INCREASE WINDS A NOTCH
FROM MURRELLS INLET SWD TO HANDLE ADDITIONAL TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE W SIDE OF THE LOW.
THANKS FOR COORD CAE/CHS.
.ILM...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC.
HEAVY SURF ADVISORY SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC.
STORM WARNING SURF CITY NC TO MURRELLS INLET SC.
GALE WARNING S OF MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC.
WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL AREAS.
PFAFF/PJN
FXUS72 KRAH 010116 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
911 PM EDT FRI APR 30 1999
SOME DEBATE ON ACTUAL LOCATION OF SFC LOW OFFSHORE. MSAS/BUOY OBS/
HAND ANALYSIS ALL GIVE DIFFERENT PLACEMENT. RUC DROPS SFC LOW TO JUST
E OF JAX LATE TONIGHT WHILE 18Z ETA REMAINS STATIONARY AND BROADER
WITH THE FEATURE. IT APPEARS LOW IS DRIFTING S OR SE PER LATEST
BUOY OBS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER AIR REFLECTION ONLY
CRAWLING EWD. WITH CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE CONTINUING OVER THE
CWFA...RATHER RELUCTANT TO LOWER POPS DESPITE SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING IT DRYING UP INLAND. ISENT LIFT IS REAL STRONG THIS
EVENING...WILL LET RADAR TRENDS DICTATE TOWARD RELEASE TIME. WILL
KEEP WINDY GOING IN FCST AND NOT LOWER OVERNIGHT. PER COORD WITH CAE
WILL KEEP LWA GOING. FINALLY...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MENTION THUNDER AT
THE COAST.
HEAVY SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AND WILL REMOVE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FROM COAST SINCE THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE IS NOW UPON US.
TRAJECTORY APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR FLOODING AT SAT MORNINGS LOWER
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE SO WILL NOT MENTION ATTM.
CWF: WL CONT GALES AND BUMP WINDS TO 35 TO 40 KT...HARD TO IGNORE
CONDS AT FRYING PAN ATTM...BEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM WL
IMPACT WTRS AS IT SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM COAST. WL INITIALIZE WINDS
NE SC AND N/NW GA WTRS...WL DECIDE GA WTRS AS RELEASE TIME. WL
INTRODUCE MENTION OF TSTMS AS WELL. WINDS ON HARBOR CONT NR 30 KT...
THESE WL REMAIN UP THRU NIGHT AS WELL...WL BUMP UP TO GALES.
THANKS FOR COORDINATION CAE AND ILM.
.CHS...
SC...GALE WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANNAH.
GALE WARNING CHARLESTON HARBOR.
HEAVY SURF ADVISORY FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANNAH.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
GA...GALE WARNING FROM SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.
HEAVY SURF ADVISORY FROM SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.
RVT
FXUS62 KCHS 010114 COR sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
830 PM MDT FRI APR 30 1999
THE 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGH FROM MT TO CO. 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS HAD UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN NV WITH DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLE...ALSO SEEN ON WATER VAPOUR
LOOP. MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING A SWATH
OF SHRA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SD AND NORTHEAST WY. MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO WESTERN SD FROM HIGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS
KEEP SHRA ACTIVITY FROM REACHING THE FOOTHILLS ON EAST. CONCERN
TONIGHT IS PRECIPITATION.
THE 00Z RUC2 INITIALIZED NICELY AND REPRESENTED REALITY AT 02Z. RUC2
FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT TRENDS AND ANALYSIS WHICH FITS
CURRENT PACKAGE NICELY. ONLY MINOR WORDING CHANGES EXPECTED WITH
UPDATE.
.KUNR...NONE.
HELGESON
FXUS63 KABR 010156 sd
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 AM EDT SAT MAY 1 1999
SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN STILL MOVING LOW OFF
THE GA/NORTH FLORIDA COAST AND MOVING IT TO ABOUT 200 OR SO MILES
OFFSHORE OF SGJ BY 12Z THIS AM. WATER VAPOR AND RUC...MESO ETA
MODELS ALL SHOW DRYING IN MID-UPPER LEVELS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FA
EARLY THIS AM WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S FA-WIDE. THIS
DRYING IS EVEN MORE THAN THE NGM HAS PROGGED AND WILL IN
FACT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR VOLUSIA AND KEEP THE
REST OF THE FA DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS LAYERED LOW
CLOUDS SLOWLY ADVECTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FA EARLY THIS AM...AND
ANY CLEAR/MOSLTY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
REALLY SHORT LIVED. ALL MODELS KEEP DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER 200 MBS AND WILL GO ALONG W/THIS AS
SYSTEM TRIES TO MAKE A SOUTHWEST TRACK TOWARD THE FA THIS AM BEFORE
AGAIN SHIFTING EAST AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES LARGE SCALE
TROUGH SLOWLY EASTWARD ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...WITH DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS
REMAINING ACROSS THE FA TODAY...WILL GO WITH AVN GUIDANCE...AND
BELIEVE THAT TEMPS COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE BELOW AVN NUMBERS. WILL
KEEP HEAVY SURF ADVISORY DUE TO ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS BUT WILL
EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH MARTIN COUNTY. WILL OPT TO ALLOW CURRENT
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE BUT EMPHASIZE HEAVY SURF WITH BUILDING
SWELLS PILING WATER ON BEACHES. CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES
TODAY.
LONG TERM...EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN TO MAKE AN EASTWARD EXIT BEGINNING
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DECREASE AND SKIES TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY TO
KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL BEGIN TO BETTER REBOUND MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS. OMEGA PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF YEILDING WITH FOR/AFT
CLOSED UPPER LOWS OPENING AND EJECTING ENE BY TUE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NEEDED FOR ALL OF FORECAST AREA AS
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH MARINE
LOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GA WATERS. LARGER SWELLS SHOULD
FURTHER DETERIORATE SEA CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRELIM NUMBERS...
DAB EB 067/053 074/055 077 56210
MCO EB 070/055 076/057 079 56110
MLB EB 070/054 075/056 079 56110
.MLB...
HEAVY SURF ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH-TO JUPITER INLET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
TROUTMAN/SHARP
FXUS72 KMFL 010707 fl
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
900 PM MDT FRI APR 30 1999
SHOWERS FROM CIRCULATION TO SOUTH UP INTO WRL AND BPI...BUT SATELLITE
PICUTURES INDICATE CLOUDS DISSIPATE INTO MONTANA. NEW 12 HOUR PROGS VARY
ON DETAILS TONIGHT WITH ETA MOVING A SHORT WAVE UP INTO SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND RUC SPREADS PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWEST.
SKEPTICAL OF THESE PROGS...BUT POPS QUITE LOW IN SOUTHWEST...SO WILL
LEAVE ALONE. DEWPOINTS FAIRLY HIGH AND WITH A WEAK EASTERN UPSLOPE FLOW
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG TONIGHT. INVERSION ON TFX RAOB INDICATES
SIGNIFICANLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. NEXT UPSTREM TROUGH PROGGED
TO CENTRAL WASHINGTON IN 24 HOURS WHICH COULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO MONTANA SUNDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. AREAS ZONES LOOK GOOD...NO UPDATE. OARD
GTF 1221 HLN 1221 HVR 1221
FXUS65 KMSO 010300 mt
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
215 AM EDT SAT MAY 01 1999
IF APRIL SHOWERS BRING MAY FLOWERS...WHAT DOES APRIL DUST BRING FOR
MAY????
.DISC...OMEGA BLOCK W TRANSFORM INTO MORE OF A REX BLOCK NXT SVRL
DAYS. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNS OF RAIN COMING ANYTIME SOON. APRIL HAS
GONE DONE IN THE RCRD BKS AS THE DRIEST OF THIS CENTURY FOR KALB. BLV
OR IT OR NOT THERE WERE DRIER PLCS THAN THE 0.60 INCHES AT THE ARRT.
CESTM WAS ONE OF THOSE PLACES WITH JST 0.53 INCHES! THE RAFL
STATISTIC IS MADE MORE INTERESTING IN THAT STARTG WITH LST
JULY...THERE HV ONLY BEEN 3 MONTHS WITH > NRML PCPN. OUR OFFICIAL
RAFL TOTAL FOR THE PST 10 MNTHS WAS 24.88 OR 4.26 INCHES BELO NORMAL.
I REALLY THNK ONCE THE TEMPS WARM A BIT...AND THE VEGETATION COMES
FULLY OUT...WATER RESOURCES WL BEGIN 2 MARKEDLY DROP.
AS FAR AS FIRE WX GOES...RANKG IS 4.5 WITH 5 BEING THE HIGHEST FIRE
INDEX DANGER IN ERN NY. FOR THE PST SVRL HRS THE WND AT KALB AS SHFT
TO THE S. THIS IS IN RESPONSE 2 FCT THAT SFC HI HS REBUILD 2 OUR E
(IN THE PRESENCE OF COOLER MARINE AIR) AND SFC RUC SHWD A VRY WK MESO
INV TROUGH (SANS MOISTURE) IN THE VCTY OF THE HUDSON VLY. LKS AS IF
THIS FEATURE SHLD WKN NXT SVRL HRS AND THEN WNDS GO ALL OVR THE PLC.
HOWEVER ETA/GEM AND NGM SAY THEY WB LIGHT THRU SUN WHICH WL BE THE
ONLY SVG GRACE. EITHER WAY...YET ANOTHER SPS WB ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE
LTR THIS AM CONCERNING FIRE DANGER.
SLOW MOVG NOR EASTER LURKS OFF THE SE CST. THE AVN INDICATES THIS
SYSTEM WL NVR BE ABLE 2 SPRD ITS PCPN MUCH FRTH N AND W THAN KORF.
REX STYS S...THEN RDG ALFT REASSERTS ITSELF ERLY NXT WK OVR THE NE.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT IMPACT THE BCK DR CLD FNT WL HV ON OUR RGN
LT SUN/MON. MDLS DO NOT GIVE MUCH OF A CLUE...OTHR THAN 2 CHANGE
BNDRY TMPS VRY LTL DRG THE NXT 48-72 HRS. BLV COOLER AMS WL LKLY STY
2 OUR E...AND IN FCT WITH GD ERLY TRAJ...DWNSLPG OFF BERKS CLD
ACTUALLY WRM HUDSON VLY UP A LTL (AS FANS INDICATE).
FWC/FAN VALUES CLS AND LK REASONABLE. PLN NOT 2 STRY MUCH FM THEM.
CONTINUITY FM PREV PACKAGE WB FOLLOWED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
TWEAKS. WL THRW CATSKILLS IN WITH REST OF HIER TRRN (XCPT
ADIRONDACKS) AS WE FEEL A BIT MORE CU FRM WL TAKE PLC OVR HIR TRRN
GIVING THOSE FLKS MOSTLY SUNNY (AS OPPOSED 2 SUNNY IN THE VLYS). FOR
SUN A WK BNDRY MAY PRODUCE A BIT MORE CU EVRYWHERE.
.EXTENDED...YSTDY/S MRF INDICATED NXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RA WLD
NOT BE TIL ABT THURS. WE/LL SEE WHAT NEW MRF INDICATES.
PRELIMINARY WRKZFP AVBL. LATER.
.ALB...NONE.
HWJIV
FXUS61 KBGM 010115 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
833 PM CDT FRI APR 30 1999
A VERY BUSY WEATHER DAY NOTED FOR AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF MAF...AS
SEVERE T-STORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINS CONTINUED FROM EXTREME SE NM
TOWARD CNTL GAINES CNTY. RUNOFF AMOUNTS UP TO THE HOODS OF AUTOS
WAS REPORTED AROUND SEMINOLE EARLIER...WITH HAIL DEPTHS RANGING FROM
2-4 INCHES SOUTH OF HOBBS AT NADINE TO 10 INCHES AT SEMINOLE. THUS A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR N/W COUNTIES A GOOD CALL EARLIER.
00Z SFC MAP INDICATED THE DRYLINE HAS MOVED WEST OF MARFA...WERE
TD'S JUMPED FROM 21F TO 52F AT 00Z. 21Z RUC MODEL SHOWS INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...AS A SPEED MAX AROUND THE BAJA NEARS THIS REGION.
THUS A CHANCE OF MORE STORMS TONIGHT. AS THE DAYTIME HEATING
SUBSIDES...AM CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING FROM MORE SLOW MOVING STORMS
OVER THE SAME AFFECTED AREAS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...RW AND
T-STORMS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT
CONFIGURATION OF FFW LOOKS GOOD IN CURRENT FORECASTS. WE ARE
CLEARING SOME OF OUR SW COUNTIES OUT OF THE TORNADO WATCH. WILL
SEND OUT REVISED ZONES SOON.
RSB
FXUS64 KHGX 010117 tx
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
951 AM EDT SAT MAY 1 1999
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE ACCORDING TO LOW CLOUD MOTIONS ON EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. RUC MODEL DRIFTS THE LOW SOUTHEAST WHICH SEEMS
TO BE SHOWN BY VISIBLE LOOP. MAIN PROBLEM TO LOOK AT IN
MORNING ZONE FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS AND THE EFFECT THIS WOULD HAVE ON HIGH TEMPS. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION LOOKS ABOUT NEUTRAL. BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY SCALE
BACK MAX TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MARINE...CURRENT BUOY DATA SHOWS WEST WINDS BUT EXPECT THAT AS LOW
DRIFTS SOUTHEAST THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO A NORTHWEST
COMPONENT. RUC SHOWS SIGNIFICANT TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE 20 TO 50 NM NORTHERN LEG. DO NOT
SEE THIS EVEN OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA OR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTAL
WATERS SO NOT PLANNING ON ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO WINDS OR SEAS.
.MLB...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH-TO JUPITER INLET. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
FXUS62 KTBW 010739 AMD fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1121 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 1999
ONLY CHGS NEEDED TDA ARE FOR TEMPS AND WND AND THOSE ARE MINOR.
DECENT MIXING GOING ON WITH 16Z OBS SUPPORTING MIXING TO 850 MB OR
HIGHER ALREADY. GOING UP TO 800 MB ON LCL RAOBS WITH WEAK LOW LVL
COLD ADVCTN PER PROFILERS AND 12Z RUC GIVES CLOSE TO FCST HIGHS.
MAY DROP NERN SXNS A CATEGORY HWVR.
PROFILERS...15Z SFC GEOSTROPHIC WND AND SFC PRES GRADIENT FM 15Z
ANLYS ALSO INDC WNDS MAY HAVE TO BE CLIPPED A BIT IN SPOTS.
.DSM...NONE
SMALL
FXUS63 KDMX 010825 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1010 AM EDT SAT MAY 01 1999
NOT MUCH TO CHANGE ON CURRENT FCST AS LOW CONTINUES ANCHORED OFF SE
CST AND WINDS STAY NE ACRS FA. WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER ALOFT AND
WITH AFTN MIXING DUE TO STRG SUN SHD BE GUSTY AND MAKE SCA ON SRN
PART CWF.
MORNING SOUNDING SUPPORTS MAXES ARND 70 OVR CNTRL PART OF FA AND
THIS AGREES WITH RUC.
.LWX...SCA DRUM PT TO SMITH PT.
JAB
FXUS61 KLWX 010630 md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1020 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 1999
THE CHANHASSEN SOUNDING THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE
BASED INVERSION WILL BREAK AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 60S.
WOODLAKE PROFILER SHOWS THERE IS AT LEAST 20 KNOTS OF WIND
AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE RUC MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM 2 TO 7
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN FOR THE UPPER 70S WITH EASE THIS AFTERNOON.
.MSP...NONE
WH
FXUS63 KDLH 010755 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
917 AM MDT SAT MAY 1 1999
UPDATES NEEDED MAINLY FOR SOME MODIFICATION OF SKY CONDITIONS AND TO
REMOVE MENTION OF FOGGY AREAS.
GIST OF GOING PACKAGE IS GOOD. ANALYSIS OF UPPER AIR DATA INDICATES
THAT UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. ENERGY PUSH THROUGH
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO AHEAD OF SCHEDULE ACCORDING TO
THE 01/00Z MODELS. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THIS PACKET IS IN
THE PROCESS OF SPLITTING UP WITH SOME HEADING NORTHEAST WHILE THE
SOUTHERN PART OF IT HAS A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO IT. THE ENERGY PACKET
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED A BIT AS IT
MOVED EAST AND IT MAY NOT BE THE PRIME MOVER OF THE UPPER LOW. IF
ANYTHING...THE SOUTHEAST MOVING COMPONENT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST VORT
MAX MAY SHOVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MORE SOUTHEAST.
AM LOOKING AT A SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THAT HAS SOME
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THIS SHOULD MISS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PLUS WHAT IS ALREADY HERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PER GOING
PRODUCT.
OF INTEREST...HOWEVER...IS AN AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FOR BILLINGS AT 1409Z.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. FREEZING LEVEL ABOUT 10,000 FEET
AND WIND PROFILE BASICALLY IS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. SPEED SHEAR OCCURS
ABOUT THE 400 MB LEVEL. ALTHOUGH THE RUC RUN FOR 01/12Z PRODUCES RATHER
IMPRESSIVE CAPES...MODIFICATION OF THESE PROGS INDICATES THAT CAPES WILL
BE LESS. CHB
BIL EW 067/046 064/041 060 52344
LVM .. 061/042 058/... ... 52344
HDN .. 068/044 066/... ... 52344
MLS .. 073/048 070/044 ... 52344
4BQ .. 072/047 069/... ... 52344
BHK .. 071/047 068/... ... 52344
SHR WW 067/042 064/038 060 52444
FXUS65 KMSO 010936 mt
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1015 AM CST SAT MAY 1 1999
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE TEMPS AND WIND. 12Z RUC CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS MODELS IN SHIFTING BLOCKING RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST TODAY. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME CI TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN FA AREAS TODAY HOWEVER WITH
DEEP DRY LAYER WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON TEMPS OR SUNNY FCST. TEMPS
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FWC ATTM SO MAY NEED SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM RUC DRY ADIABATIC TO H8 ONCE INVERSION BREAKS WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 20 TO 30KTS. WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH EXPECTED TEMPS AND RH WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
RED FLAG OVER PLAINS AREA ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
IN PAST DAYS.
.FGF...NONE.
VOELKER
FXUS63 KBIS 010832 nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
132 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 1999
A BENIGN PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS W/THE ONLY SIG CHALLENGE
DETERMINING HOW QUICKLY THE WNDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW
RETURNS IN THE ERN CWA ATTM. THE 15Z RUC SHOWS A WEAK H5 VORT
ROTATING SW ACROSS THE UPSTATE. BY 18Z THE RUC PROGS THE VORT TO BE
SW OF THE AREA W/RAPID DRYING IN ITS WAKE.
THE H8 GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT OVER THE UPSTATE AND NC PIEDMONT
OVERNIGHT AS THE H5 LOW OFF THE COAST WOBBLES ONLY SLOWLY E. IN
FACT...THE RUC INCREASES THE H8 WINDS BY 03Z WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
DECREASE THE WINDS ONLY SLIGHTLY. WHAT THIS PROBABLY MEANS IS THAT
AREAS SUBJECT TO DECOUPLING WL DO SO...WHILE AREAS THAT TEND TO STAY
GUSTY...LIKE GSP...WL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS OR SO MUCH OF
THE NGHT. WL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND GO SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
MAY NEED TO CONTINUE LAKE WND ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING. WL MAKE
UP MY MIND IN TIME FOR THE WORK ZONES.
DWPTS ARE QUITE DRY ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW...THOUGH
W/WINDS STAYING UP SOME OVERNIGHT CURRENT 1ST PERIOD MINS OF U30S
MTNS TO M40S PIEDMONT LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY WENT W/FAN NUMBERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THEY SIDE BETTER W/THICKNESSES AND LOCAL TEMP
SCHEMES.
THE EXTENDED LOOKS INTERESTING. THE MRF AND UKMET BOTH DROP A RATHER
STRONG S/W SE OVER A STRONG BUT LOW AMPLITUDE W COAST RIDGE. MY
THINKING IS THAT W/SUCH A STRONG JET ON THE SW SIDE OF THE S/W IT
WILL LIKELY DIG AND BE MORE CLOSED THAN THE MRF/UKMET CURRENTLY
INDICATE. WL GO W/POPS WED AND THU. WL COOL TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON
THU.
CAEWRKGSP OUT BY 245 PM.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
AVL 39/66/42/69 000
CLT 46/71/49/74 000
GSP 44/72/47/75 000
.GSP...NONE.
MCAVOY
FXUS62 KCHS 011420 sc
SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
942 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 1999
BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. 12Z RUC MODEL INDICATES INCREASED PVA TO MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AND TEMPS APPEAR ON
TRACK GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. WILL MAKE MAINLY
COSMETIC CHANGES AND ALTER THE ZONE GROUPINGS OVER THE WEST SLIGHTLY
SO THAT WINDS CAN BE INCREASED IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES.
.SAT...NONE.
18/02 MESO
FXUS64 KHGX 011436 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 AM EDT SAT MAY 1 1999
NOT REALLY MUCH OF A CHANGE FM FRI. MSAS DEPICTS A 03 LOW WOBBLNG
OFF THE SC CST. ONCE AGAIN ETA IS A COUPLE OF MB TOO HI W/THE CNTRL
PRES WHILE THE NGM AND RUC SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE. EVEN WITH
THE SUBTLE INCONSISTENCIES...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE WINDS WILL
STILL CRANK ACRS SE VA AND NC TODAY AND ACT INTO SUN.
CUR VIS SHOWS THE SC DECK XTND NE TO SW FM NR WAL TO PTB TO ARND AVC.
LAST FEW FRAMES HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH OF A NW PROG SO WL LEAVE PS COND
FOR POINT N AND W OF THIS LINE...AND VARIABLE CLDS OR MCLO FOR PTS S
AND E. WNDS WL BE A PROB TODAY. ECG IS ALREADY NRNG WND ADV CRIT...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE THE HIGHEST OB IN THE AREA. SO FOR NOW...WL KEEP
A CLOSE WATCH. OTHERWISE...SE VA WL SEE WNDY COND WHILE MOST OTHER
LOC CAN XPCT BREEZY.
TEMPWISE THNK SOME LOC IN THE W AND N MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEG WMER
THAN FRI HOWEVER FOR THE MOST PART STUCK WITH A PERSISTENCE FCST.
.MARINE INTERESTS...VERY LITTLE CHANGE XPCTED SO NO CHANGES TO
HEADLINES WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKINGS TO THE FCST.
.AKQ...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY...CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURR BEACH LIGHT.
GALE WARNING...COASTAL WATERS FM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO
CURR BEACH LIGHT.
SCA...CHES BAY/ATLC...CURR SOUND...CSTL WTRS FM FENWICK ISL
TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SHADE
FXUS61 KRNK 011351 va