FXUS64 KMAF 061917 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 216 PM CDT FRI AUG 6 2004 .SHORT TERM... KMAF 88-D VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATED SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO NORTHERLY ALOFT...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMING THAT THE UPPER RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MSAS ANALYSES INDICATED A MID-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES...140 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT MIDLAND AND 115 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT DEL RIO PER MORNING SOUNDINGS. WEAK SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGHING /OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES TRANSITING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO INITIATE CONVECTION LATER TODAY TO OUR NORTH...ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND MCV TO OUR NORTH...WITH TRANJECTORIES INDICATING A POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION MAY PROPOGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. POP GRIDS WILL REFLECT CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS LEA COUNTY AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...ALONG AND NORTH OF A HOBBS TO LAMESA LINE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND DOWNWARD TRENDING TO ISOLATED MAINLY OROGRAPHIC RELATED STORMS SOUTH OF THE PECOS. MODEL CONSENSUS AND FORECAST GRIDS REFLECT A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. .LONG TERM... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE A BIT ON SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA IN A NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE AROUND THE RIDGE TOWARD THE AREA. A MOIST THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DOWN THROUGH FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE ALONG THIS AXIS...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING MAX AFTERNOON HEATING. OTHER ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST. THE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/MOIST AXIS MAY BE ORIENTED MORE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS /20 PCT/ ORIENTED ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER ARIZONA THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL MAINLY BE ORIENTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES TRNASLATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY IGNITE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS/NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN ALONG THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY AXIS. DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING ENOUGH TO KEEP STORM FORMATION TO A MINIMUM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO FLATTEN A BIT WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE GREATEST OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA...WHERE THE GREATEST (20 PCT) POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 71 92 71 93 / 20 30 20 10 CARLSBAD NM 69 98 68 95 / 20 20 30 20 DRYDEN TX 73 95 70 94 / 10 20 20 10 FORT STOCKTON TX 72 95 71 94 / 10 20 20 20 GUADALUPE PASS TX 70 93 67 90 / 20 20 20 20 HOBBS NM 69 95 70 94 / 30 30 30 20 MARFA TX 63 91 60 89 / 10 20 20 20 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 71 93 72 93 / 20 30 20 10 ODESSA TX 72 94 72 93 / 20 30 20 20 WINK TX 76 100 74 99 / 20 30 20 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. && $$ 01/21