FXUS64 KMAF 260853 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 343 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2004 .SHORT TERM... WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN UPPER TROUGH. CORRESPONDING SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EVENING. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AIDED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN. DECIDED TO INCLUDE UPTON AND REAGAN COUNTIES OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN IN ISOLATED POPS AS WELL AS ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL TO BREAK CAP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S WITH CAPE ABOVE 1500 J/KG EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. DID NOT INCLUDE THE EXTREME WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS IN ISOLATED MENTION AS THAT AREA WILL BE NORTH OF TRACK OF WAVE DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS AND USED THE ETA80 WIND AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. .LONG TERM... UPPER RIDGE WILL BEING TO GIVE WAY AS WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND OVER THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH... BUT THEN THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE. MAIN CONCERN IS APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. GIVEN RICH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE TO BELIEVE WILL SEE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG FRONT. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW FRONT PUSHING OUR NORTHERN CWA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON... MAKING IT INTO THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN BY MIDNIGHT... AND THEN PUSHING INTO THE BIG BEND REGION BY MORNING. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DEVELOPING PRECIP ALONG AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY... WILL INCREASE POPS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN GOOD EXPECTED LIFT DUE TO STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT HAVE TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT BOTH SEVERE AND FLOODING AS SHOW AREA WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING CAPE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL INCLUDE IN HWO BUT NOT IN ZONES AT THIS TIME. TIMING OF FROPA ALWAYS SUBJECT TO CHANGE... PARTICULARLY IF CONVECTION HELPS PUSH FRONT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE GOING MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY THEN CURRENT FORECAST SO HAVE STARTED TRENDING TEMPS DOWN... WILL SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE RETURNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 96 74 97 71 / 10 10 0 0 CARLSBAD NM 99 68 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 DRYDEN TX 97 73 95 73 / 10 10 10 10 FORT STOCKTON TX 98 73 97 72 / 10 10 10 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 93 69 93 71 / 10 10 0 0 HOBBS NM 98 65 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 MARFA TX 93 64 89 63 / 10 10 20 20 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 98 73 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 ODESSA TX 98 71 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 WINK TX 105 73 102 75 / 10 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. && $$ 12/72