000 FGUS74 KSHV 040132 ESFSHV ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-LAC013-015-017-021-027-031- 043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-OKC089-TXC005-037-063- 067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-419-423-449-459- 499-042330- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...UPDATED FOR MAY/SPRING INFORMATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 830 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2006 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT... ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION... MOST OF THE MONTH OF MAY HAS BEEN ATTRIBUTED TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION...AS A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS REMAINED IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF COAST REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE MONTH. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DID BRING A LITTLE RELIEF TO THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT THIS PAST WEEK ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA, WHERE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN FELL. ELSEWHERE, VERY LITTLE RAINFALL FELL ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS, AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. MAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WERE SOME ONE TO THREE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS (CLARKSVILLE TO LONGVIEW LINE)...TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS (LUFKIN) AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA (SHREVEPORT). RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES WERE COMMON ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA, WITH FOUR TO SIX INCH AMOUNTS FOUND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. THESE TOTALS WERE SOME TWO TO FOUR INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH, DURING A TIME WHERE MUCH OF THE SPRING RAINS FALL, AND NORMAL MONTHLY RAINFALL IS AT ITS HIGHEST. THE LACK OF RAINFALL CAN BE TRACED BACK TO LATE MARCH, WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SPRINGTIME RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOME THREE TO SIX INCHES BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT, THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS RECLASSIFIED THOSE AREAS WEST OF A NASHVILLE, ARKANSAS...TO MAGNOLIA...TO MINDEN, LOUISIANA...TO HEMPHILL, TEXAS LINE, TO MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) STATUS AS OF ITS MAY 23RD/30TH UPDATE. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS (D0) REMAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS UPDATED EVERY THURSDAY MORNING, AND CAN BE VIEWED AT: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE MAY RAINFALL TOTALS AND THEIR DEPARTURES, AS WELL AS THE SPRINGTIME AND YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL/DEPARTURES THROUGH MAY 31ST FOR SELECTED CITIES IN THE FOUR STATE REGION: LOCATION MAY: DEPARTURE: % NORMAL (MONTH): YEAR: DEPARTURE: ------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHREVEPORT LA 1.21 -4.04 23% 18.76 -3.01 REMARKS: 13TH DRIEST MAY ON RECORD (SINCE 1872) MONROE LA 5.69 +0.22 104% 28.64 +3.07 REMARKS: DATA SINCE 1930 TEXARKANA AR 2.86 -1.42 67% 19.35 +0.14 REMARKS: DATA SINCE 1892 LUFKIN TX 1.25 -4.04 24% 15.23 -4.34 REMARKS: 7TH DRIEST MAY ON RECORD (SINCE 1948) TYLER TX 2.45 -2.01 55% 16.26 -2.93 REMARKS: DATA SINCE 1898 LONGVIEW TX 0.79 -4.27 16% 14.37 -6.55 REMARKS: 3RD DRIEST MAY ON RECORD (SINCE 1902) EL DORADO AR 1.76 -3.73 32% 16.90 -7.46 REMARKS: 12TH DRIEST MAY ON RECORD (SINCE 1892) DEQUEEN AR 2.71 -3.44 44% 20.38 -3.03 REMARKS: 11TH DRIEST MAY ON RECORD (SINCE 1902) MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS: BROKEN BOW, OK 2.48 -4.13 38% 20.22 -3.08 IDABEL, OK 3.48 -2.46 59% 18.87 -2.65 MT. HERMAN, OK 3.50 -3.11 53% 21.22 -2.08 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- LOCATION SPRING: DEPARTURE: % NORMAL: -------------------------------------------- SHREVEPORT LA 8.52 -5.33 62% REMARKS: 24TH DRIEST SPRING ON RECORD (SINCE 1872) MONROE LA 15.21 -0.56 96% REMARKS: DATA SINCE 1930 TEXARKANA AR 11.71 -0.62 95% REMARKS: DATA SINCE 1892 LUFKIN TX 5.23 -6.72 44% REMARKS: 3RD DRIEST SPRING ON RECORD TYLER TX 8.80 -3.32 73% REMARKS: DATA SINCE 1898 LONGVIEW TX 7.13 -6.05 54% REMARKS: 11TH DRIEST SPRING ON RECORD EL DORADO AR 8.34 -6.85 55% REMARKS: 8TH DRIEST SPRING ON RECORD DEQUEEN AR 14.82 -1.35 91% REMARKS: DATA SINCE 1902 MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS: BROKEN BOW, OK 14.43 -1.93 88% IDABEL, OK 12.47 -2.29 84% MT. HERMAN, OK 16.06 -0.30 98% ----------------------------------------------------------------- HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... DESPITE THE LACK OF RAINFALL RECEIVED DURING APRIL AND MAY...AREA LAKES AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR RESPECTIVE CONSERVATION POOL STAGES. ON THE OTHER HAND...STREAMFLOWS AND STAGES ON RIVERS AND BAYOUS CURRENTLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. FORTUNATELY, THE HEAVY RAINFALL RECEIVED IN MID MARCH AND AGAIN IN LATE APRIL CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A CUSHION AGAINST WORSENING WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS, AND HAS KEPT RESERVOIRS NEARLY STEADY. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... NO BURN BANS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTH LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS. HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED, AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S LATER THIS WEEK, FUELS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DRY OUT, THUS PROMOTING THE IGNITION/SPREAD OF WILDFIRE. BURN BANS MAY BE ADDED IN THE COMING WEEKS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL NOT FALL SOON. RESTRICTIONS... NO WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE IN EFFECT. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... NO SIGNIFICANT AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS ARE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, SHOULD TIMELY RAINFALL NOT RETURN BY THE SECOND WEEK OR SO OF JUNE, IMPACTS WILL BE FELT AGRICULTURALLY, AS JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER ARE THE HOTTEST/DRIEST TIMES OF THE YEAR, WHERE VERY HIGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION RATES OCCUR. OUTLOOK... NEAR NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW PRESENT IN THE NINA 3.4 REGION OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN, WHICH BODES WELL FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION, AS EQUAL CHANCES FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL, NORMAL, AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL, AS NOTED IN THE SUMMER OUTLOOK ISSUED IN MID MAY FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL ONLY PROVIDE MINIMAL RELIEF IN THE FORM OF RAINFALL. UNFORTUNATELY, A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE PLAINS AROUND MIDWEEK, AND WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/FOUR STATE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ELIMINATE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEAR TERM, WHILE WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS ALSO FORECASTING ABOVE NORMAL PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH AUGUST. $$ 15