FXUS63 KDDC 210739
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...FINAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
215 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2003

DAYS 1-2...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL COME A 
HALT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS 
WILL DEVELOP WITH BASES AROUND 8000FT. HAIL IS NOT LIKELY WITH THESE 
STORMS, BUT DOWNBURST WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY AS THE STORMS COLLAPSE
GIVEN THE DEEP INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING. KEPT 20 PERCENT POPS FROM 
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND EXPANDED ALL THE WAY TO THE COLORADO 
BORDER. WE SHOULD EASILY MIX UP TO 700MB ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF 
THE FCST AREA BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES/WASHES OUT NEAR DDC BY LATE 
AFTERNOON. THE HOTTEST TEMPS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE 
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE COLORADO 
BORDER SIMPLY DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL 
OUT IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, SO ISOLATED STORMS CANT BE RULED OUT
FRIDAY EITHER.

DAYS 3-7...

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS, A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH 
NO CLEAR INDICATION OF WHICH MIGHT BE CORRECT. CDC CONTINUES TO HAVE 
COMPUTER PROBLEMS SO THERE IS NO DIAGNOSTIC INFORMATION AVAILABLE 
ASIDE FROM A LITTLE SATELLITE DATA. GIVEN THAT, THERE IS NO WAY TO 
EVALUATE THE VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OTHER THAN TO PLAY MIX AND 
MATCH WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS AND THEIR CONSISTENCY. OVERALL THEIR 
TREND IS TO SUCK UP THE EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN 
BRANCH FLOW, SWING IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS BREAKING OUT 
PRECIPITATION AND EVENTUALLY FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE 
FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. THIS IS CERTAINLY A 
PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION, BUT IS NOT BACKED BY MODEL OR ENSEMBLE 
CONSISTENCY/CONGRUENCE AND IS UNVERIFIABLE DUE TO LACK OF 
DIAGNOSTICS. DUE TO THIS REASONING, WILL CHOOSE NOT TO CHANGE THE 
GOING DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 
VARIANT OF THIS SCENARIO MATURE. THERE ARE A LARGE VARIETY OF THINGS 
WHICH COULD VERY WRONG WITH THIS IDEA. 


FINCH/JOHNSON

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 103 67 102 66 / 20 20 20 20
GCK 101 65  98 64 / 20 20 20 20
EHA  98 65  96 62 / 10 10 20 20
LBL 101 66  99 66 / 10 10 20 20
HYS  97 65  96 65 /  0  0  0 00
P28 105 70 104 69 / 20 20 20 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

$$