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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY

1122 AM EST FRI FEB 06 2009



WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 3



THIS IS THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD

POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD

OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER

VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK

CITY AND LONG ISLAND.



THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF

HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING.

THESE FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW

COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE

WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE

SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE 

TWO WEEK PERIOD FROM FEBRUARY 06, 2009 THROUGH FEBRUARY 20, 2009.



THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID 

FROM FEBRUARY 11TH THROUGH THE 15TH SUGGESTS THAT BOTH TEMPERATURES 

AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE 

AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM FEBRUARY 13TH THROUGH THE 

19TH SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL WHILE PRECIPITATION 

WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.



HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER

FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD

POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.



CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.



RECENT PRECIPITATION - BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO FAR TO 

DATE THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA HAS RECEIVED UP TO 4 INCHES OF 

PRECIPITATION WHICH IS AROUND ONE INCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME

OF YEAR.



AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN INCHES YEAR TO DATE

(JAN 1 - FEB 06, 2009)...



                               TOTALS    

SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT         2.5 - 4.0    

NYC AND LONG ISLAND          2.5 - 3.7   

NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY         2.5 - 3.0   

LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY    1.0 - 3.0   



SNOW CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS PRESENTLY 

SNOW COVERING THE GROUND ACROSS THE ENTIRE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.



RIVER ICE - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CURRENTLY

THE STREAMFLOW AT BOTH THE YANTIC RIVER AT YANTIC, CONNECTICUT AND 

THE WALLKILL RIVER AT GARDINER, NEW YORK ARE AFFECTED BY ICE.



THE US COAST GUARD REPORTS ICE CONDITIONS ON THE HUDSON RIVER...



WEST POINT TO NEWBURGH      20% COVERAGE WITH ICE THICKNESS BETWEEN

                            4 TO 6 INCHES.  



STREAMFLOW - BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS REPORTED ACROSS THE 

HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY 

VISITING THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) WEB PAGES AT 

HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/.



RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - WATER SUPPLY WAS ABOVE NORMAL. COMBINED

STORAGE IN THE 13 MAJOR RESERVOIRS SERVING NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY

IS 93 PERCENT CAPACITY WHICH IS 12 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. COMBINED

STORAGE IN THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM IS AT 86 PERCENT 

CAPACITY WHICH IS 4 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.



SOIL MOISTURE - SOIL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO MUCH

ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN

BE SEEN AT WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST/ AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.



AHPS FLOOD FORECASTS - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE ADVANCED

HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) GENERATES PROBABILISTIC RIVER

FORECASTS BASED ON CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS (RIVER LEVELS, SOIL

MOISTURE, EXTENT AND CONDITION OF ANY SNOWPACK) ALONG WITH 50 YEARS

OF HISTORIC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA.



FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS AHPS INDICATES THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER 

FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC 

SERVICE AREA. 



PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/ FOR DETAILED AHPS INFORMATION.



FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE TWO WEEK 

OUTLOOK PERIOD CALLS FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC

SERVICE AREA WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOUT NORMAL FOR 

THIS TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS EXPECTED

TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HEAVY PRECIPITATION

EVENTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 



THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 20TH 2009.



FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:

WEATHER.GOV/NYC.



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