000
FXUS61 KOKX 100524
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1224 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING TUESDAY....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A
STORM PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN...BUT REMAIN THIN AND HAVE NOT YET
HAD AN IMPACT ON FALLING TEMPS. EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...SO WILL LOWER MINS AND UPDATE THE
ZONES.

MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...AND WITH BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE...WILL KEEP IN CHC
POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM ABOUT MID-MORNING ON...BUT THE
BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A
LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD COVER. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AS 950MB JET OF
AROUND 40-45KT PASSES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH IT. BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD BREAK OUT INTO
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...BUT EVEN IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...IT WOULD BE
LATE IN THE DAY...SO TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WOULDN`T HAVE MUCH OF A
CHANCE TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ANY SUNSHINE THAT DEVELOPS. KEPT
SKY GRIDS AT MOSTLY CLOUDY AT THE LEAST...WHICH IS ALONG THE LINES
OF MOS GUIDANCE. WENT WITH A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

INVERSION KEEPS CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH...HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT PROBABLY WON`T TAKE
MUCH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT PRECIP. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
WELL. ALL ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SO NO CONCERNS FOR FROZEN PRECIP ATTM.

ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A LITTLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING THROUGH...HAVE PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. MUCH LIKE TUESDAY...THINK THAT MOST OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY. STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT LOW LEVEL INVERSION
CAN BREAK SINCE SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SO ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...THERE`S
PROBABLY A LID" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">LID ON HOW HIGH TEMPS CAN WARM UP. A MAV/MET MOS BLEND
WITH SOME TWEAKS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST COMPROMISE FOR TEMPS. KEPT THE
SKY COVER AT MOSTLY CLOUDY.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER TROF LATER IN THE DAY. POPS
INCREASE TO LIKELY DURING THE NIGHT...WITH A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE THEN MOVES NEARBY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT DON`T THINK WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP FROM THIS. COLD
ADVECTION NOT VERY STRONG BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO STILL LOOKING AT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPS. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
WINTRY PRECIP...ZONAL H5 FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIP SHIELD WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW CLOUDS BASES GET TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT APPEAR TO REMAIN ABOVE IFR THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING. STRONG WINDS ALOFT TUESDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS ISSUES
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 40KTS+ AT ABOUT 2KFT.

PERHAPS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAKENING SFC FLOW
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG INVERSION EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOG/LOW ST
LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY BE LOOKING AT A
PROLONGED FOG EVENT INTO WED AM. SFC WINDS MAY JUST BE THE
SAVIOR...ALLOWING FOR SFC VIS TO REMAIN A BIT HIGHER THAN TOWER VIS.

OUTLOOK" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SUB VFR AT TIMES THU AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THU NIGHT WILL SCOUR OUT LOW CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRONG WEST
WINDS. STRATOCU LIKELY THU AND FRI WITH COLD ADVECTION AND
CYCLONIC FLOW. A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRES PASSES
SOUTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WATERS
WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN FOG ON WATERS WHICH COULD BE DENSE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 5 FT LOOKS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES. WINDS SHOULD REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH 20-30 KT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY.

STILL EXPECTING STRONG GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SHARPLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SLOW TO
DECREASE...WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA UNTIL THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WHERE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH IS
POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAK UP ON RIVERS THIS
WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$