AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 905 AM PST THU MAR 22 2001 OPEN TROUGH IS OVER THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING. LOTS OF CIRRUS AND ACCAS PRESENT. KOAK/KREV SOUNDINGS SHOW THE HIGH BASED INSTABILITY STILL OVER THE REGION. 16Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS -5 LI'S FOR REDDING AND ELEVATED CAPE OF 1500 J/KG WITH .65 PW'S. SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE THE VORT ALONG 40N 125W TAKING AIM ON THE NW COAST THIS AFTERNOON PER MODELS AND SATELLITE. APPEARS THE COASTAL MTNS WILL BE IN DPVA LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. PW'S ARE STILL RUNNING UNUSUALLY HIGH IN THIS REGION AND 12Z BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN NRN ZONES TODAY. FOR THE VALLEY THE MAIN DIFFERENCE AT REDDING AND RED BLUFF IS THE CAP IS MUCH WEAKER TODAY THAN OTHER DAYS...CINS VALUES UNDER 15. CAP IS STRONGER FURTHER SOUTH IN THE VALLEY. WILL CONSIDER ADDING TSTM FOR NRN SAC VLY IN ZONES. IF ETA IS CORRECT WITH THE WEAK CAP AND THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING INDUCING SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT REDDING THE PROGGED LI'S OF -5/CAPE OF 1100 J/KG/NORMALIZED CAPE OF 0.14 M/S2 SUGGESTS STRONG STORMS FOR ANY THAT DEVELOP. ETA AT FULL RES 22-KM SHOWS GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR REDDING AND NORTH 00Z-06Z. 15Z RUC SOUNDINGS SIMILAR TO ETA SHOWING CAP BREAK NEAR 03Z. OLD UPPER LOW PROXIMITY TO THE SIERNEV MAY AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP THERE. LAST NIGHT SAW SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR BLUE CANYON AT 09Z...HOWEVER DYNAMICS ARE LESS FAVORABLE TODAY. KREV SOUNDING SHOWS INCREASES PW'S TO 0.56-IN (UP FROM .39 12Z WED) WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS THERE. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MARGINAL AT KBLU ETA SOUNDING BUT MODERATE ON THE RUC FORECAST WHICH LIKELY IS MORE ACCURATE GIVEN CURRENT LAPSE RATES IN THE SIERNEV. OTHER CONCERNS IN THE MARINE INTRUSION LAST NIGHT. FORT ORD PROFILE SHOWED DEPTH NEAR 3000 FEET AND 2400 FEET ON KOAK. ARB SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW LEVELS AT RED BLUFF AND LAKEPORT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ZERO 24H CHANGE IN TEMPS. COOLING IS MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE USUAL PLACES OF GREATER SAC AREA AND DELTA. VIS SAT SHOWS THAT LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE ADVECTED/DEVELOPED IN THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAC VALLEY (SE UPVALLEY LOW LEVEL FLOW) NORTHWARD TO NEAR RED BLUFF AND SCATTERED ON THE EAST SIDE OF SAC. STILL 19KTS AT FAIRFIELD WITH A 2-MB SAC-SFO GRADIENT BUT ONLY 2.3-MB SFO-RNO. KDAX WIND PROFILE INDICATES SHALLOW MARINE LAYER OVER SAC WITH NORTH WIND AT 2000 FEET...SW AT 1000FT. ARB SHOWS MARINE DEPTH NEAR 1500-FT AT SAC. COOLING IN MOTHERLODE SUGGESTS MARINE DEPTH WAS GREATER EARLIER. H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED AT 11C TODAY AND KOAK SHOWS NO 24H CHANGE AT H85. CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER MAXS FOR MARINE AFFECTED AREAS AND PERSISTENT HIGHER TERRAIN LOOK GOOD. NRN SAC VALLEY TEMPS MAY BE A TAD TOO LOW. DIFFICULT TO TELL IF MARINE AIR WILL BE MIXED OUT ELSEWHERE...CURRENT METARS SHOW LITTLE DELTA INFLUENCE IN SAC AT THIS TIME. ETA SUSTAINS 1.5 TO 2-MB SFO-SAC GRADIENT TODAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DEEPER/FURTHER SOUTH THAT OLD LONG RANGE PROGS FOR THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE GOOD OMEGA/RH WILL BE HITTING THE COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY AND MOVE INLAND AFFECTING MUCH OF OUR CWA...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AT US-50 CORRIDOR. .STO...NONE TARDY ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1040 AM CST THU MAR 22 2001 OVERRUNNING PCPN CURRENTLY OVER MO CONTINUES TO FLIRT WITH THE SW CORNER OF CEN IL CWA ATTM. BELEIVE SPRINKLE CHC AT BEST FOR THIS AREA TODAY AS SFC RIDGE OVHD CONTINUES TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK AS IT COMES INTO THE AREA. 15Z RUC LOW LVL RH SHOWS THIS TREND NICELY. CLOUD DECK ASSOC WITH THIS PCPN IS SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF NWRN SECTIONS OF IL. SO LOTS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN FOR THIS SECTION OF IL. SO WILL UPDATE WORDING OF THE ZONES TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. WILL TAKE A QUICK LOOK AT TEMPS BEFORE SENDING...BUT FORESEE NO CHCS TO THEM. .ILX...NONE. KETCHAM $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1040 PM EST THU MAR 22 2001 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/EASTERN WI...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN IA/NE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE ZIPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER...WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN ITS WAKE OVER SOUTHEAST WI. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN MI ATTM...WITH MORE WIDEPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL UPPER/NORTHEAST WI...WHERE KMQT/KGRB 88D'S SHOW A BAND OF SNOW AND MIXED RAIN AND SNOW MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL UPPER. EARLIER BAND OF 28+ DBZ RETURNS JUST EAST OF MQT WITH SAW REPORTING 1 1/4SM IN SNOW AT 02Z...BUT ECHOES HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND. 00Z APX SOUNDING HAD DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...APPROACHING 7C/KM...ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR BELOW 600MB. GRB SOUNDING SIMILAR WITH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES IN SEVERAL LAYERS BELOW 550MB...ALONG WITH A LITTLE HIGHER RH. SO LIKELY SOME ACCAS TYPE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN UPPER AND NOW EXPANDING INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR PER RADAR TRENDS. PRECIPITATION BEING FORCED AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN UPPER/NORTHERN WI...AIDED BY SOME BROAD DIVERGENCE IN LFQ OF 110KT SPEED MAX DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN AND SECONDARY CONVERGENCE AXIS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WI (EVIDENT ON KMQT/KGRB RADARS). PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT DEALS WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS SHORT WAVE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES TRAVERSE THE REGION. EASTERN UPPER...LATEST RUC KEEPS BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS AREA OVERNIGHT. BETTER RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST UPPER/NORTHEAST WI IN AREA OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL RH...WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN LOWER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ACCAS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT GIVEN DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND...SO CONTINUED WITH FLURRIES WORDING OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO GO MOSTLY CLOUDY EXPECTING AT LEAST BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NORTHERN LOWER...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATELY FORMING AND DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AREA CURRENTLY OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. STILL BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND COMBINED WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON AREA OF SC HEADED TOWARD WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN...AS MENTIONED ABOVE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE PULLING THIS AREA OF MOISTURE INTO NORTHWEST LOWER OVERNIGHT. PLAN TO REWORD NORTHWEST LOWER ZONES AND STRAITS COUNTIES AS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF FLURRIES LATE GIVEN RADAR TRENDS. ACROSS EAST CENTRAL LOWER COUNTIES THINK PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WILL SUFFICE. UPDATED ARBZFPAPX ALREADY SENT. .APX...NONE. JPB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1110 AM EST THU MAR 22 2001 WEAK COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE WRN TIP OF THE UPR PENINSULA AND NW WI LATE THIS MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW/MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS REACHED AS FAR AS CENTRAL WI. LOOKS LIKE THE ETA ACTUALLY HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS THE CLOUD DECK HAS NOT BEEN CONFINED TO MID LEVELS. REGARDLESS...LATEST RUC AND MESO ETA HOLD OFF ON INCREASING CLOUDS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON FOR ERN UPR...LATE AFTERNOON FOR NW LOWER AND EARLY EVENING FOR NE LOWER. THIS SEEMS TO BE MATCHING WELL WITH REALITY LOOKING AT CLOUD TRENDS FROM THE LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING FOG AS ALL REGIONAL OBS ARE SHOWING 10 SM AND SKC. WILL DO SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF INCREASING CLOUDS BASED ON LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS. WILL ALSO DO SOME MINOR ADJUSTING TO HIGH TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. APX...NONE. EME mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE 243 PM CST THU MAR 22 2001 FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP EVENT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FOG TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE SHORT TERM...ISALLOBARIC RISE CONTINUES OVER EASTERN SD AND A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND RESULTING STRATOCU ARE WORKED ON BY SUN SOUTH OF ABOUT 42N LATITUDE. LOW TOPPED CU IN SE NEB AND SW SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED LATER BY STRATOCU FROM NORTH OR RADIATION FOG. FOG MIGHT BE LOCALLY DENSE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT LOW VISIBILITY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NEB AND SFC RIDGE IN IA. 18Z MESOETA AND RUC SUGGEST THAT COOL PUSH WILL BE LIMITED IN SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH THICKEST CLOUDS REMAINING IN THE NORTH. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT THAT STRONG WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AROUND 850 MB LATE TONIGHT WITH BEST MOIST CONVERGENCE AND UPGLIDE NEAR SD BORDER. PRECIP WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER. SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO FREEZING NEAR SD BORDER. AFTER COORD WITH FSD WILL KEEP TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS WARM ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY SLOW OR REVERSE TEMP DROP BY MORNING. BEST LIFT MOVES QUICKLY EAST DURING THE MORNING...BUT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD STILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL MAX OUT EARLY IN THE NW ZONES...BUT WAIT UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS. AVN IS SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT COLD ADVECTION THAN ETA/MESOETA. THE LATTER DO NOT DROP THE CLOSED 5H LOW IN CANADA QUITE AS FAR SOUTH. WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH TO HAVE PLENTY OF PUSH AT LOW LEVELS. OUR AREA IS ESSENTIALLY BARE OF SNOW EXCEPT PATCHES IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO MODIFY. THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT KEEP TEMPS UP MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES ON SATURDAY BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. TEMPS WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AIR AND THE STRONG SUN WITH CHILLIER AVN MOS PREFERRED HERE. COLD LOWS SAT NIGHT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE IN THE SOUTH. EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEMS. MAIN MRF RUN HAS A MAJOR OPEN GULF SYSTEM BY MIDWEEK...BUT ENSEMBLE IS MORE EQUIVOCAL AND ECMWF IS WEAKER AND OUT OF PHASE. NORTH COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT THE ONLY CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN LOOKS COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. .OMA...NONE POLLACK ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 837 PM EST THU MAR 22 2001 KBUF AND KTYX RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE MESO-ETA AND RUC SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND CROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY...THE SNOW MAY PICK UP AGAIN...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THEREFORE THE EARLIER ADVISORIES WILL BE DROPPED. A WEST TO EAST CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE GENESEE VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING AN ABRUPT HALT TO THE CLEARING TREND ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES. .BUF...NONE TJP ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 910 PM CST THU MAR 22 2001 CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO FORMING IN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND 00Z ETA AND RUC KEEP BEST CONVERGENCE AND WAA ALONG THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO BORDER OVERNIGHT. HAVE SMALL POPS IN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REMOVE THEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CWA. LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW KEEPS TO COOL OFF A LITTLE MORE THAN LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST...SO CURRENT TEMP FORECAST LOOKS OK. SHOULD MAINLY HAVE BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE FAR EAST. WILL UPDATE ZONES BEFORE 11 PM. .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. 6 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1000 AM EST THU MAR 22 2001 RUC SHOWS 850 MB LOW CENTER PULLING NE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTN. PRESSURE GRAD WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CANCEL WIND ADVISORY IN FAVOR OF LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN MTN ZONES AND KEEP BREEZY WORDING ELSEWHERE. TEMPS LOOK GENERALLY GOOD...BUT WILL OPEN UP A WIDER RANGE FOR NRN NC TIER ZONES. HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING SE ACROSS SRN IL/MO THIS MORNING MAY REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME EROSION IS OBSERVED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLOUDINESS ON IR AND IT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SKY COVER FOR MOST OF THE AFTN. WILL WORD SUNNY E OF MTNS TO PARTLY CLOUDY NRN NC MTNS. FCSTID = 33 GSP 67 38 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 AND 68 38 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 CLT 67 38 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 HKY 63 35 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 AVL 60 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 10 .GSP... GA...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES THIS AFTERNOON IN MTNS. NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES THIS AFTERNOON IN MTNS. SC...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES THIS AFTERNOON IN MTNS. HG sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 220 PM CST THU MAR 22 2001 .FIRST PD... WK MID-LVL DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A FEW SHWRS ACRS THE FAR NRN CWA. SATL AND RADAR HAS BEEN TRACKING THIS SHRTWV FEATURE VERY WELL FROM POINTS WELL UPSTREAM IN MO. USING THE LATEST RUC MDL NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ATMOSPHERE PRETTY DRY IN THE LOWER LVLS SO PCPN SHOULD RMN WDLY SCT BEFORE ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. .LONGER TERM... NEXT FCST CHALLENGE IS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. ETA AND AVN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVG STG CDFNT INTO THE MID-SOUTH AFTER 06Z SAT. NOT MUCH RETURN SFC FLO AND MSTR AHEAD OF THE CDFNT SO DON/T EXPECT A LOT OF PCPN...HOWEVER LGT SHWRS SHOULD DVLP LATE FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA AS A STG BATCH OF STG UPWARD MOTION MOVS THRU. DUE TO THE STG PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE HAVE GONE VERY CLOSE TO AVN GUIDANCE. .EXTENDED FCST.. MDLS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT STG TROF DIGGING ACRS THE ERN THIRD OF THE US. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIRMASS ACRS THE MID-SOUTH THRU DAY 4. WAA PATTERN DVLPS ON TUE AS MODLS MOV ERN TROF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RETURN FLO FROM GULF SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CHC OF PCPN ON TUE. MILDER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS ON WED. MRF HAS STG SHRTWV MOVG INTO THE CNTRL US ON DAY 7. WILL INCLUDE TSTMS IN FCST AS DECENT CDFNT APRCHS RGN. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS. MEM 046/073 051/057 003 MKL 042/068 049/053 004 JBR 043/069 049/053 004 TUP 046/073 052/058 003 .MEG...NONE. BELLES tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 830 PM CST THU MAR 22 2001 AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS AND PRECIP OVER PARTS OF NC/NE WI WAS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A PASSING S/W TROF AND LLVL CONVG ALONG REMNANTS OF A LK BREEZE FRONT. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WAS ONLY EDGING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. 00Z RUC SHOWS THE S/W TROF MOVG OUT OF FAR NE WI BY 06Z. IN ADDITION...EXPECT THE LK BREEZE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN...SO A DIMINISHING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP WORDING OVER NE WI AND TAKE A LOOK AT CLOUDS/MIN TEMPS AND WINDS FOR REST OF AREA. ZFP UPDATE SHOULD BE OUT BY 03Z. .GRB...NONE. KIECKBUSCH WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB wi SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO 313 AM MST FRI MAR 23 2001 MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE THIS AFTN. SHALLOW COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK FOR TNGT-SAT WITH SERN CO SAT MAX TEMPS BEING A BIG CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY: 08Z/23 SFC AND NEPHANALYSIS SHOWED LEADING EDGE OF CAN AIR MASS EXTENDED FROM ERN WY TO EXTREME NERN CO THEN ALONG SRN NE. RATHER EXTENSIVE IFR/LIFR POST FRONTAL CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS SD/NE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ANIMATION SHOWING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT RAN ACROSS SRN CO YDA IS MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. APPEARED SHORTWAVE WAS FURTHER N AND STRONGER...PER POST RUC40 500MB ANALYSES...HENCE A LITTLE DEEPER CONVECTION(ISOLD-SCT TSRA). NEXT SHORTWAVE WAS CURRENTLY DIGGING THROUGH NRN AZ WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER SRN UT...AND PERIODIC LIGHTNING EARLY THIS AM...MOVING EWD. NOT SURE IF THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS ONE WELL ENOUGH. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING OLD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF S CNTRL/SERN CO DISSIPATING. RGNL RADARS ARE PRETTY MUCH PRECIPITATION-FREE SINCE MIDNIGHT. AIR MASS UNSEASONABLY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES(AROUND .50 INCH) RUNNING 150-210% ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR PER 00Z/23 UPPER AIR DATA. TDA: SHORT RANGE MODELS TAKING NRN AZ SHORTWAVE INTO NRN NM BY LATE THIS AM-AFTN. RUC40 HAS IT IN NWRN NM BY 18Z/23. PVU'S RUNNING ABOUT 2-3 ACROSS MUCH OF SRN CO LATE THIS AM/AFTN WITH THE STRONGEST IMPLIED ASCENT OVER NM. RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVEL POOL(-18C TO -20C@500MB) STILL OVER CO THIS EARLY SPRING. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THIS AM AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MID-LEVEL/SFC BASED LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. LAPS SOUNDING 700MB TEMPS AROUND 0 TO +2C AND MIXED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO 800-850MB YIELDS 50S AND LOW/MID 60S RESPECTFULLY. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND AFTN SURFACE BASED LI'S 0 TO -4C PER MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WITH 7000MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 4 G/KG AND GEORGE'S K-INDICES OF 20-30 ACROSS CO. SNOW COVERED AND MELTING SNOW AT HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SOURCE TO WORK WITH...TOO. N-NELY PRE-FRONTAL SFC WINDS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SERN CO PLAINS THIS AFTN AND MAY STRENGTHEN ONCE MTN-VALLEY CIRCULATION DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. BEST LOW LEVEL POTENTIAL TEMP PACKING STILL N-NE OF CWFA THIS AFTN AND IS LIKELY WHERE THE TRUE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED. THE BIGGEST CAVEAT WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ANY LITTLE HIDDEN PIECES OF ENERGY. THIS WILL EITHER INCREASE OR DECREASE THE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE. YDA DAY CREW DID A GOOD JOB ON ADDING TS TO THE FCST AND WILL MAINTAIN. ANY SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WET BULB ZERO 9-10K FT MSL OR HIGHER. SEVERE THREAT ABOUT NIL...BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1/4" HAIL IF STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES DEVELOP. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS YIELDED 400-900 J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTN. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE SCT(30-50%) COVERAGE CONFINED TO THE MTNS/SRN FOOTHILLS AND ISOLD(10-20%) SAN LUIS VALLEY/I-25 CORRIDOR PUB-COS. WILL KEEP THE LOW POP FOR THE FAR SERN CO PLAINS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. TNGT-SAT NGT: PRETTY MUCH STICKING WITH THE 06Z MESO-ETA/ETA FOR BETTER TERRAIN RESOLUTION. GOOD SPATIAL/TEMPORAL CONTINUITY ON THE COLD FRONT BACKDOORING INTO ERN CO TNGT-SAT. CURRENT MESO-ETA HAS MOIST SHALLOW...1-4K FT AGL...MOVING INTO THE COS-TAD I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/24 AND INTO THE SRN CO FOOTHILLS OVRNGT. COLDEST AND DEEPEST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAIN/MIDWEST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM'S COMING THROUGH TO INCREASE POPS/QPF. MOST OF THE POTENTIAL EVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT. LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC ASCENT FCST. ONLY IMPLIED VERTICAL MOTION WILL HAVE TO COME FROM LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT(10-15KTS). STRATUS/FOG STILL LOOKS GOOD AOB 8K FT MSL FOR SERN CO MTNS/PLAINS LATER TNGT-SAT. WET BULB ZERO LOWERING TO 4.5-6KT FT MSL BY SAT AM...SO COULD SEE A FEW FLAKES NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND BOTH DIVIDES(PALMER/RATION). MESO-ETA PRINTING OUT .40 LIQUID OVER PUB CO FRI NGT. ETA SNOW ALGORITHM PRINTING OUT 1-4 INCHES OVER PUB/TAD/COS FRI NGT...MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE. SAT'S MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIG CHALLENGE. TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT PROGGED ALONG SERN CO FOOTHILLS. MAY BE ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE AROUND 8K FT MSL ELEVATIONS OR HIGHER ARE WARMER THAN LOWER ELEVATIONS. UPSLOPE SPEED WEAKENS(5-10KTS) AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE S-SE BY SAT AFTN...WHICH IS DOWNSLOPE OFF RATON DIVIDE AND UPSLOPE CONTINUES FOR SRN PALMER DIVIDE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHALLOW OUT ALONG I-25. STILL COULD BE SOME CONVECTIVE DIURNAL SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MTNS. MESO- ETA SUGGESTING LITTLE DIURNAL TEMP CHANGE IN SERN CO PLAINS AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS. WILL PLAY A LITTLE TEMP RECOVERY ALONG COS-TAD I- 25 CORRIDOR...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS MOS TEMPS. STRATUS/FOG MAY HANG ON AROUND KLHX/KLAA SAT NGT...BUT W-SWLY LOWER TROP FLOW DEVELOPS SAT NGT AS SHALLOW COLD AIR RECEDES. EXTENDED(SUN-THU): NO CHANGE TO EFP. .PUB...NONE. METZE co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 200 AM MST FRI MAR 23 2001 FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY PRECIP/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TODAY...WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NEZ080-081 AND KSZ004 BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND RUC SFC RH FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CREATE GREAT PREFRONTAL WARMING. ITS UNUSUAL FOR THE ETA 2M TEMPS TO HIGHER THAN THE FWC GUIDANCE ON ANY GIVEN DAY AND WHEN IT IS ITS WORTH NOTING. ETA 850 TEMPS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAYS READINGS SUGGESTING AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 65 TO 70 WILL BE COMMON. WILL HAVE TO BREAK OUT THE NEBRASKA/YUMA COUNTY COLORADO ZONES FOR TEMPS A BIT LOWER CONSIDERING PROXIMITY TO FRONT AND CURRENT FOG OVER THE AREA. WILL ALSO MENTION THAT IT WILL BECOME WINDY LATE AS THE FRONT BLOWS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 00Z/06Z ETA SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50 RANGE (OR UPPER 40S FOR THAT MATTER) LOOKS UNREALISTIC AND IS A BIG FACTOR IN THE OVERZEALOUS CAPE VALUES. 00Z KAIN-FRITSCH SURELY AFFECTED FROM THIS AS WELL. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TRW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO WHATEVER INSTABILITY EXISTS AS WELL AS THE FRONT AS A TRIGGER. TONIGHT/SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF AS CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP EXPECTED AS LIFT IS NEARLY NULL. WILL HOWEVER MENTION SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES PARTLY BASED ON 250 JET STREAK THAT PASSES FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL OPT FOR THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE TONIGHT AND 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE FOR SATURDAYS HIGHS. THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN FWC GUIDANCE WHICH IS REALLY NO SURPRISE. SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER LEVELS SATURATED WITH SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. WILL HIT THE FOG PRETTY HARD AND GO WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE. WILL ALSO MENTION A 20 POP FOR SNOW SHOWERS BASED ON 250 JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH. .GLD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ080-081 AND KSZ004. THEDE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CST FRI MAR 23 2001 FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. IN THE SHORT TERM...ETA/AVN/NGM/RUC PROGOLOGY IN CLOSER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO IN HANDLING OF APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. QUICK PEEK AT 06Z MESOETA CONFIRMS TRENDS OF EARLIER PROGS. ALL PROGS BRING MINOR SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CWA LATER TODAY AND EXIT REGION BY THIS EVENING. TIMING OF MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION POINTS TO A MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PRECIPITATION TIME WINDOW. 1000/500 MILLIBAR THICKNESS PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO. PROGS ALSO RESOLVE PREVIOUS SURFACE DIFFERENCES WITH A VERY SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION. MEANWHILE A BETTER DEFINED 850 MILLIBAR TROUGH WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE BAND AT TIME OF BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PROVIDES BETTER FOCUS FOR TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE FAR TERM...A TURN TO A COLDER WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AS NORTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER CWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AVN/ETA OUT TO 60 HOURS DIFFER IN TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH SWINGING AROUND LARGE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. SO WILL KEEP EXTENDED PERIODS OF FORECAST UNCHANGED FOR NOW. .MKX...NONE. 0...0...0...0...0.../ $$ ZAJDEL wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1037 AM EST FRI MAR 23 2001 SHORT WAVE HAS EXITED E OUT OF LOWER MI LATE THIS MORNING. WDLY SCT FLURRIES AND CLOUDS RESULTING FROM THIS MOISTURE-STARVED VORT MAX HAVE ALSO PUSHED E OF THE REGION...LEAVING ONLY SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UPSTREAM...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WRN UPR MI AND NW WI AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL THROW US BACK INTO WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND. LINGER LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW CWA ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH INCREASING SOLAR HEATING/DIURNAL MIXING. LATEST RUC AND MESO ETA CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD RATHER DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH IN FROM THE NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MENTION OF INCREASING CLOUDS FOR ERN UPR AND NW LOWER MI ZONE...MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON LATEST TEMP TRENDS. .APX...NONE. EME mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1020 AM CST FRI MAR 23 2001 AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD, LK SUPR, AND NRN WI TIED TO THE HUSKY LITTLE VORT MAX MOVG THRU. MOISTURE OVR THE REGION IS BLO 4,000 FEET UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE NEXT SPOKE OF VORT IS SWINGING THRU SWRN ONT NOW WITH AN 850 COLD POOL. A CU FIELD IS DVLPG UNDER THESE FEATURES AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SNOW SHWRS THIS AFTN. THE HEIGHT OF THE SHOWERS SHOULDN'T BE SGFNT ACCORDING TO THE MRNG INL SOUNDINGS AND SUBSEQUENT RUC2 PROG SOUNDINGS. .DLH...NONE. CS mn SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1010 AM CST FRI MAR 23 2001 BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHERE WILL THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH BE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...DRT'S 12Z SB CAPE WAS 2535 J/KG WITH CIN OF -39 J/KG. PRESENTLY...BOUNDARY CLIPS NORTHWEST VAL VERDE COUNTY AND STRETCHES NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE TX. BOTH MESO ETA AND RUC PUSH BOUNDARY NORTH OF OUR CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A GOOD THUNDERSTORM COULD PUSH IT BACK SOUTH. SO...WILL GO FOR 20 PERCENT POPS DRT AREA AND HILL COUNTRY WITH A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE. SPC CALLS FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. WILL BE ASSESSING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR SATURDAY FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S PACKAGE. .EWX...NONE. 3/4/23 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1020 AM EST FRI MAR 23 2001 WRAPARND/DEFORMATION SNWS IN FULL TILT ACRS NRN FA. SFC LOW WL MOV SLOWLY TO NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS EVNG. KCXX VAD ALRDY SHWG N/NW FLOW THRU 8K FT AND XPCT WNDS TO BACK TO MORE OF A NW DIRECTION TAFTN. KCXX SHWS BAND OF HVIER SNW FM NR YUL THRU CLINTON CNTY AND INTO NW VT...THE RSLT OF A DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS SHWS UP QUITE WELL IN RUC H7 FGEN FIELD. RUC FCST AXIS OF BEST FGEN TO SLOWLY MOV ACRS N VT TAFTN. COMBINED WITH DEEP MSTR AND INCRG NW FLOW...XPCT SNW TO CONT INTO THIS EVNG N FA...WITH EMPHASIS ON W SLOPES GREENS. 06Z ETA INDCTD UP TO 0.3" QPF AFT 15Z ACRS ADRNDCKS/N VT HIR TRRN AND NEW 12Z ETA SMLR SO WL INCR SNW ACCUM TO 2-4" FOR FVRD N ZNS BY EVNG. 12Z ETA/NGM ALSO INDCTS SNW WL CONT THRU FIRST HLF TNGT SO INCRD POPS TNGT N ZNS FM ADRNDCKS EWD. XPCT LOCALLY 6"+ ADDITL SNW ACCUM ACRS SOME HIR TRRN LOCNS ACRS NE NY/NW VT BY THE TM THE SNW ENDS LTR TNGT. .BTV...NONE. KJC vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 316 PM EST FRI MAR 23 2001 CRNT...PERSISTENT SNWS ASSCD WITH DEFORMATION ZONE STARTING TO SHW SIGNS OF WKNG PER RCNT KCXX LOOP WHICH SHWS BAND OF HIR REF BCMG DISORGANIZED ACRS NE NY/NW VT. 18Z RUC INDCTG H7 FGEN WKNG AFT 21Z SO DO XPCT A DECR IN SNW INTENSITY INTO THIS EVNG...BUT OROGRAPHIC INDUCED SNWS SHD GET ORGANIZED THIS EVNG PER INCRG NW FLOW AND DEEP MSTR RMNG IN PLC. ETA QPF AFT 22Z ARND .10-.25" ACRS MCH OF N ZNS WHILE 18Z RUC SHWG MAX ARND 0.4". DONT THINK THIS IS TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR FVRD NW UPSLOPE AREAS SO WL INDCT UP TO 3" FOR N VT/ADRNDCKS WITH LCLY HIR AMTS W SLOPES. ELSW IN THE N...AN INCH OR 2 SHD DO IT. LONGER TERM...STG S/WV DIGGING SE FM GT LKS SAT WL PASS MSTLY S OF FA LT SAT/SAT EVNG. AVN IS ON ITS OWN WITH 0.1-0.2" QPF MVG ACRS S VT SAT AFTN BUT ETA/NGM/GEM ALL SHW LTL OR NOTHING WITH BULK OF QPF TO THE S. BEST UL SUPPRT GOES S OF FA SO WL LEAN TWD DRIER SOLN WITH JUST FLRYS FOR S VT. OTRW...THIS S/WV WL CARVE OUT DEEP TROF ACRS NE INTO ERLY NXT WK. WITH CYC FLOW DOMINATING...COLD TMPS ALF AND LL MSTR WL HAV TO PAINT CHC SNW SHWRS AND EMPHASIZE CLDS N ZNS THRU THE PD. S VT A LTL FTHR RMVD FM MSTR SO WENT OPTIMISTIC ROUTE AND MNTND PTSUNNY SAT/SUN. XTNDD...MRF INDCTG POTL FOR ANOTHER CSTL STORM LT IN THE WEEK BUT JURY IS STILL OUT ON THIS AS MDLS NOT ON THE SAME PAGE. WL MNTN CHC SNW OR RA FOR THU/FRI. .BTV...NONE. KJC vt