FXUS65 KMSO 091759
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1059 AM MST TUE NOV 9 2004

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG CONTINUES ALONG HIGHWAY 93 FROM ST IGNATIUS TO
FLATHEAD LAKE BUT EXPECT LOW VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE AFTER LUNCH AND
PLAN ON DROPPING THEN. HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THIS
AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA AND ONCE AGAIN VALLEY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED...DENSE IN SOME AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH...WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WITH A LOW SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH UTAH
EXTENDS FROM IDAHO COUNTY INTO WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING.
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF
MISSOULA.

A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST CANADA TODAY...OVER
THE TOP OF THE OUR RIDGE...AND DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAIN
STATES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM INTO
EAST MONTANA AND SET UP AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW LATE TONIGHT...
PEAKING ABOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO
WESTERN MONTANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. IN ADDITION TO
COOLER TEMPS...A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE FORCED UP THE MOUNTAIN
SLOPES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SECOND CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL FIND ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN-MOST ZONES...OFFERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO LEMHI
COUNTY.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH HEIGHTS MAY NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS RECENT DAYS...
THUS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE THURSDAY. A BRIEF SHOT OF
COLD AIR FROM EAST OF THE DIVIDE MAY INFILTRATE THE NORTHERN REGION
AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWEST MONTANA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA AND
EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THEIR SOLUTIONS. ONE COMMON THEME IS THAT THE RIDGE WHICH HAS
INFLUENCED THE REGION FAIRLY STRONG THE PAST WEEK WILL HAVE BEEN WELL
ERODED...ALLOWING FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...THUS HAVE KEPT HIGH
CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...LEANING
MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY.
&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY MTZ003 UNTIL 1 PM...
ID...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE/BOLDT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/MSJ/RPN

weather.gov/missoula