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International Energy Outlook 2004
World Oil Markets - Tables
Table 5. Estimated World Oil Resources, 1995-2025
Printer Friendly Version 
| Region and Country |
Proved Reserves |
Reserve Growth |
Undiscovered |
Total |
| Industrialized |
|
|
|
|
| United States |
22.7 |
76.0 |
83.0 |
181.7 |
| Canada |
178.9 |
12.5 |
32.6 |
224.0 |
| Mexico |
15.7 |
25.6 |
45.8 |
87.1 |
| Japan |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
| Australia/New Zealand |
3.6 |
2.7 |
5.9 |
12.1 |
| Western Europe |
18.2 |
19.3 |
34.6 |
72.1 |
| Eurasia |
|
|
|
|
| Former Soviet Union |
78.0 |
137.7 |
170.8 |
386.5 |
| Eastern Europe |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
4.2 |
| China |
18.3 |
19.6 |
14.6 |
52.5 |
| Developing Countries |
|
|
|
|
Central and
South America |
98.8 |
90.8 |
125.3 |
314.9 |
| India |
5.4 |
3.8 |
6.8 |
16.0 |
| Other Developing Asia |
11.0 |
14.6 |
23.9 |
49.5 |
| Africa |
87.0 |
73.5 |
124.7 |
285.2 |
| Middle East |
726.8 |
252.5 |
269.2 |
1,248.5 |
| Total |
1,265.8 |
730.1 |
938.9 |
2,934.8 |
| OPEC |
869.5 |
395.6 |
400.5 |
1,665.6 |
| Non-OPEC |
396.3 |
334.5 |
538.4 |
1,269.2 |
|
Table 6. OPEC Oil Production, 1990-2025
(Million Barrels per Day)
Printer Friendly Version
| Year |
Reference Case |
High
Oil Price |
Low
Oil Price |
| History |
|
|
|
| 1990 |
24.5 |
— |
— |
| 2001 |
30.3 |
— |
— |
| Projections |
|
|
|
| 2010 |
35.7 |
28.2 |
42.1 |
| 2015 |
40.0 |
29.5 |
49.3 |
| 2020 |
47.8 |
35.4 |
60.1 |
| 2025 |
56.0 |
42.2 |
71.2 |
|
Table 7. Non-OPEC Oil Production, 1990-2025
(Million Barrels per Day)
Printer Friendly Version
| Year |
Reference Case |
High
Oil Price |
Low
Oil Price |
| History |
|
|
|
| 1990 |
42.2 |
— |
— |
| 2001 |
46.7 |
— |
— |
| Projections |
|
|
|
| 2010 |
55.4 |
58.4 |
54.0 |
| 2015 |
60.2 |
64.1 |
58.1 |
| 2020 |
62.1 |
67.6 |
59.4 |
| 2025 |
64.6 |
70.5 |
61.3 |
|
Table 8. Worldwide Petroleum Trade in the Reference Case, 2001 and 2025
(Million Barrels per Day)
Printer Friendly Version
| Exporting Region |
Importing Region |
Total Exports |
| Industrialized |
Nonindustrialized |
|
| North America |
Western Europe |
Asia |
Total |
Pacific Rim |
China |
Rest of World |
Total |
| |
2001 |
| OPEC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Persian Gulf |
2.9 |
2.7 |
4.1 |
9.7 |
4.8 |
0.9 |
1.5 |
7.2 |
16.9 |
| North Africa |
0.4 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
2.3 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
2.6 |
| West Africa |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
2.2 |
| South America |
1.8 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
2.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
2.6 |
| Asia |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
| Total OPEC |
6.1 |
5.5 |
4.6 |
16.1 |
6.0 |
0.9 |
1.9 |
8.8 |
24.9 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Non-OPEC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| North Sea |
0.6 |
4.5 |
0.0 |
5.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
5.2 |
| Caribbean Basin |
0.6 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
| Former Soviet Union |
0.2 |
3.6 |
0.3 |
4.2 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
4.5 |
| Other Non-OPEC |
5.5 |
3.6 |
1.2 |
10.3 |
3.7 |
1.1 |
5.7 |
10.5 |
20.8 |
| Total Non-OPEC |
6.9 |
11.8 |
1.6 |
20.4 |
4.0 |
1.1 |
5.8 |
11.0 |
31.4 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total Petroleum Imports |
13.0 |
17.3 |
6.2 |
36.5 |
10.0 |
2.0 |
7.8 |
19.7 |
56.3 |
| |
2025 |
| OPEC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Persian Gulf |
5.8 |
4.5 |
5.9 |
16.3 |
9.4 |
5.7 |
4.9 |
20.1 |
36.4 |
| North Africa |
0.5 |
3.1 |
0.1 |
3.6 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
1.6 |
5.3 |
| West Africa |
1.6 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
2.9 |
1.9 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
2.6 |
5.6 |
| South America |
3.9 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
4.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
4.9 |
| Asia |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
1.5 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
| Total OPEC |
11.9 |
8.8 |
6.9 |
27.6 |
13.8 |
6.6 |
6.3 |
26.8 |
54.4 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Non-OPEC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| North Sea |
0.7 |
3.4 |
0.0 |
4.2 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
4.7 |
| Caribbean Basin |
1.6 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
2.3 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
3.7 |
| Former Soviet Union |
0.5 |
4.7 |
0.6 |
5.7 |
0.7 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
3.8 |
9.6 |
| Other Non-OPEC |
6.8 |
3.0 |
0.4 |
10.1 |
4.2 |
0.3 |
2.5 |
6.9 |
17.1 |
| Total Non-OPEC |
9.5 |
11.6 |
1.2 |
22.3 |
5.7 |
2.0 |
5.0 |
12.7 |
35.0 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total Petroleum Imports |
21.4 |
20.4 |
8.1 |
49.9 |
19.5 |
8.6 |
11.4 |
39.5 |
89.4 |
|
Table 9. Comparison of World Oil Price Projections, 2010-2025
(2002 Dollars per barrel)
Printer Friendly Version
| Forecast |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
2025 |
| IEO2004 |
|
|
|
|
| Reference Case |
24.17 |
25.07 |
26.02 |
27.00 |
| High Price Case |
33.27 |
34.23 |
34.63 |
35.03 |
| Low Price Case |
16.98 |
16.98 |
16.98 |
16.98 |
| IEO2003 Reference Case |
24.28 |
25.01 |
25.77 |
26.89 |
| GII |
22.26 |
22.93 |
23.85 |
24.77 |
| IEA |
21.75 |
23.82 |
25.89 |
27.96 |
| PEL |
21.27 |
18.41 |
15.60 |
— |
| PIRA |
23.90 |
26.70 |
— |
— |
| NRCan |
22.57 |
22.57 |
22.57 |
— |
| DB |
18.43 |
18.41 |
18.16 |
18.26 |
| EEA |
20.33 |
19.84 |
19.36 |
— |
| NPC |
18.00 |
18.00 |
18.00 |
18.00 |
| SEER |
19.86 |
20.88 |
22.49 |
24.53 |
| CGES |
21.27 |
18.41 |
15.60 |
— |
|
Table 10. Comparison of World Oil Production Forecasts
Printer Friendly Version
| Forecast |
Percent of World Total |
Million Barrels per Day |
| OPEC |
EE/FSU |
Other Non-OPEC |
OPEC |
EE/FSU |
Other Non-OPEC |
Total |
| History |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2002 |
38 |
12 |
50 |
29.7 |
9.6 |
38.6 |
77.9 |
| Projections |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2010 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| IEO2004 |
39 |
14 |
46 |
35.7 |
13.1 |
42.3 |
91.1 |
| GII |
38 |
16 |
49 |
33.0 |
13.6 |
42.7 |
88.4 |
| IEAa |
40 |
14 |
39 |
35.9 |
12.7 |
35.1 |
88.9 |
| PEL |
38 |
15 |
45 |
33.5 |
12.8 |
39.5 |
88.0 |
| PIRA |
35 |
16 |
50 |
31.3 |
14.1 |
45.3 |
90.7 |
| DB |
39 |
17 |
42 |
34.7 |
15.1 |
37.6 |
89.4 |
| 2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| IEO2004 |
40 |
15 |
45 |
40.0 |
15.1 |
45.1 |
100.2 |
| GII |
43 |
15 |
45 |
40.4 |
14.1 |
43.1 |
94.9 |
| PEL |
43 |
15 |
40 |
40.6 |
14 |
38.2 |
95.2 |
| PIRA |
38 |
16 |
46 |
37.2 |
15.4 |
45.6 |
98.2 |
| DB |
44 |
17 |
37 |
42.4 |
17.0 |
35.7 |
97.3 |
| 2020 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| IEO2004 |
43 |
15 |
42 |
47.8 |
16.1 |
46.0 |
110.0 |
| GII |
47 |
15 |
42 |
48.4 |
15.1 |
43.2 |
103.7 |
| IEAa |
48 |
13 |
31 |
50.2 |
13.9 |
31.8 |
104.1 |
| PEL |
48 |
15 |
35 |
48.9 |
15.0 |
35.7 |
102.2 |
| DB |
47 |
17 |
34 |
48.8 |
17.7 |
35.7 |
104.7 |
| 2025 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| IEO2004 |
46 |
14 |
39 |
56.0 |
17.3 |
47.2 |
120.6 |
| GII |
51 |
14 |
36 |
58.2 |
16.1 |
41.2 |
116.9 |
| DB |
49 |
15 |
34 |
56.0 |
17.3 |
38.9 |
115.1 |
|
Released: April 2004
|
