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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/21/08 0538Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 THRU 0515Z

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LOCATION...W LOWER MICHIGAN...N INDIANA...

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ATTN WFOS...APX...IWX...GRR...

ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...

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EVENT...LES

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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT IR TRENDS OF LES PLUME SHOW AN

ELONGATION OR COMBINATION INTO A BETTER DEFINED SINGLE LES PLUME AS

IT HUGS THE W MI COASTLINE. TEMPS ARE ALSO DECREASING TO NEAR -26C IN

EIR WITH SOME ISOLATED TOPS TO -30C NEAR MANISTEE AND MASON COUNTIES.

SATELLITE DERIVED LAKE TEMPS SEEM A BIT HIGH BUT EVEN AT A MODEST 43F LAKE

DERIVED CAPES ARE IMPRESSIVE BASED ON GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT.

THIS ALONG WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ( TO THE INVERSION HAS LEAD TO

THE BETTER ORGANIZATION...AND STRONG 30KT FLOW INCREASE SNOW RATES ALONG

THE SW COAST OF MI INTO ST. JOSEPH AND MARSHALL  COUNTIES IN INDIANA.

BASED ON MUCH OF THESE FACTORS SATELLITE DERIVED RATES COME TO A BIT

OVER 2"/HR WITH THE CURRENT SET UP PARTICULARLY IN INDIANA AND VAN BUREN

COUNTIES WHERE FETCH IS LONGEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WV/IR LOOP

DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE COMING UP BY MID MORNING (15Z) AND LOW

LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE NWLY SHEARING THE SINGLE PLUME INTO MULTIPLE

LES LINES INTO WESTERN MI.  STILL TOTALS OVER 10" ACROSS THE DISCUSSED

AREA SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TO 15" IN SW MI POSSIBLE.

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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.

....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....

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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:

HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/

...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/

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LAT...LON 4455 8700 4454 8613 4144 8568 4134 8687

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