####018001930#### FXUS64 KSJT 130958 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 358 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2009 .DISCUSSION... A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED FOR OUR REGION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET...IS OVERSPREADING OUR REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR COUNTIES. THE CLOUDINESS IS LIMITING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNLIKELY. THUS HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP HIGHS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND EJECT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SETUP...SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PROGGED TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH INTRUSION OF MUCH DRIER AIR AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. WITH SUCH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER SUPPORT INDICATED FOR OUR AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE A DRY FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 73 34 58 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 SAN ANGELO 77 36 62 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 JUNCTION 77 39 66 40 67 / 0 0 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ####018001927#### FXUS64 KSJT 130958 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 358 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2009 .DISCUSSION... A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED FOR OUR REGION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET...IS OVERSPREADING OUR REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR COUNTIES. THE CLOUDINESS IS LIMITING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNLIKELY. THUS HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP HIGHS COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND EJECT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SETUP...SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PROGGED TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH INTRUSION OF MUCH DRIER AIR AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. WITH SUCH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER SUPPORT INDICATED FOR OUR AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE A DRY FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 73 34 58 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 SAN ANGELO 77 36 62 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 JUNCTION 77 39 66 40 67 / 0 0 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ####018004127#### FXUS62 KMFL 130959 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 459 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009 .DISCUSSION... A FOGGY NIGHT CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH LATEST NOCTURNAL VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING BANK OF DENSE FOG SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM EST. EXPECT FOG DECK TO LIFT/SCATTER BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY...AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE THAT SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL QUICKLY DEPART EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE...FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE MAINLAND. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY...AS STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY WARM AFTERNOON FOR INTERIOR/EAST COAST LOCATIONS...WITH THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS CONFINED NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA... WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AND CONVERGENCE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE. MEANWHILE...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND EXPECT THAT FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...WHICH IS PRESENTLY MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. APPEARS AS IF IT WILL FINALLY WEAKEN THE GRIP OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST THAT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS AS FRONT PASSES...WITH A MODIFIED CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. && .MARINE... ASIDE FROM DENSE FOG AND ASSOCIATED MARINE HAZARDS THIS MORNING...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WINDS AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET AT MOST IN THE GULF STREAM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST SCEC CRITERIA IF NOT STRONGER FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL CAP GULF STREAM SEAS AT 8 FEET AT THIS TIME...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY TO NORTHEAST FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME...WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 79 64 83 62 / - 10 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 80 65 83 64 / - 10 10 20 MIAMI 81 66 83 65 / - 10 10 10 NAPLES 78 61 78 61 / - - - 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066- FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074- FLZ075-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS ####018003672#### FXUS64 KMEG 131000 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 400 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2009 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO SLIP TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO THE MID SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LOW 40S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO UPPER 20S IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A WEAK SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY 00Z SAT AND THEN TO NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE BY 12Z SAT WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MID SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SPLIT INTO TWO PARTS...ONE GOING TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ONE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS A RESULT OF REMAINING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL BE LIGHT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. SATURDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH A LEFTOVER FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST NOON DUE TO DECENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY....WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RACE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR VARIABLE CLOUDINESS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MOST PLACES REMAINING DRY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF TUPELO. TEMPS WILL BE NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT 35 TO 40 AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP TUESDAY UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND FRONT SO EXPECT MILD TEMPS AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE WINDY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS. SJM && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 14/06Z WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 10000-15000 FT AGL AND THEN LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FT AGL AFTER 14/01Z. KTUP WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WHERE 5000 FT AGL CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 13/16Z AND POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 14/03Z. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KTS...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING OVER 8 KNOTS AND DECREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. KNS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 64 47 56 40 / 20 40 10 10 MKL 63 45 53 36 / 10 40 10 10 JBR 59 41 50 36 / 10 30 10 10 TUP 63 51 60 40 / 30 60 20 10 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$