HDR1012000110010212970830CROP PRODUCTION HDR2012000110010212970830HIGHLIGHTS & SUMMARY Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 12, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call at (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. The "Crop Production" U.S. Summary is available on AutoFax, (202) 720-2000, Report 1150. See page 14. Index and report features are located at the end of this report. Forecasts refer to February 1, 1997. Record Large Orange Production All oranges production for the 1996-97 season is forecast at a record large 12.5 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast in January but up 6 percent from a year ago. This forecast reflects the effects of the freezing temperatures in Florida on January 19, 1997, and in Texas on January 14, 1997. This year's crop is 5 percent larger than the previous record of 11.8 million tons set in the 1979-80 season. Florida's production amounts to 220 million boxes (9.90 million tons), unchanged from January but 8 percent above last season. Florida's Valencia crop forecast was reduced to 87.0 million boxes (3.92 million tons), 3 percent below last month's forecast but 6 percent above last season's crop. Early and mid-season varieties are expected to produce 133 million boxes (5.99 million tons), 2 percent above last month and 10 percent above last year. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 1996-97 season is forecast at 1.54 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up from 1.53 gallons per box in January. The forecast projects the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The final 1995-96 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was 1.52 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The projected average yield for 1996-97 early and midseason varieties is 1.50 gallons per box, up from last month's forecast of 1.48 gallons per box and from last season's final of 1.45. Valencia yield is projected at 1.60 gallons per box, down from 1.62 last month and 1.67 last season. Cr Pr 2-2 (2-97) Crop Summary: Production, United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Utilized Production :---------------------------------------------------- Crop : : Jan 1, : Feb 1, : : 1997 : 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop Year 1/ : 1995-96 1996-97 1996-97 : : 1,000 Tons Citrus Fruits : Oranges : 11,723 12,452 12,452 Grapefruit : 2,718 3,064 3,064 Lemons 2/ : 992 988 988 Tangerines : 348 414 424 Temples (FL) : 97 113 113 Tangelos (FL) : 110 171 180 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 7 7 7 : : Metric Tons : Oranges : 10,634,930 11,296,260 11,296,260 Grapefruit : 2,465,730 2,779,610 2,779,610 Lemons 2/ : 899,930 896,300 896,300 Tangerines : 315,700 375,570 384,650 Temples (FL) : 88,000 102,510 102,510 Tangelos (FL) : 99,790 155,130 163,290 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 6,350 6,350 6,350 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Crop year begins with the bloom of the first year and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Februrary 1 forecast carried forward from January 1. This report was approved on February 12, 1997, by the Acting Secretary of Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural Statistics Board. Acting Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board Agriculture Chairperson Michael V. Dunn Rich Allen Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1995 and Forecasted February 1, 1996 (Domestic Units) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :---------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Acres : : Sugarcane for : Sugar and Seed : 932.3 887.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1995-96 (Domestic Units) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per Acre : Production Crop and Unit :--------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Tons ------- ----- 1,000 Tons ----- : Sugarcane for : Sugar and Seed : 33.0 32.9 30,796 29,224 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1995 and Forecasted February 1, 1996 (Metric Units) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :---------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Hectares : : Sugarcane for : Sugar and Seed : 377,290 359,160 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States, 1995-96 (Metric Units) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per Hectare : Production Crop :---------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Metric Tons : Sugarcane for : Sugar and Seed : 74.05 73.82 27,937,660 26,511,570 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ HDR2012000110010212970830STATE TABLES Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 1995-96 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :----------------------------------------------------------- State : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- -- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 417.0 420.0 34.6 34.0 14,445 14,280 HI 2/ : 48.5 40.0 81.5 81.9 3,953 3,276 LA 2/ : 368.0 335.0 25.6 27.0 9,421 9,045 TX 2/ : 41.2 34.2 32.4 26.6 1,336 910 : US : 874.7 829.2 33.3 33.2 29,155 27,511 : For Seed : FL : 20.0 20.0 33.9 34.0 677 680 HI 2/ : 4.5 3.0 26.0 26.0 117 78 LA 2/ : 32.0 35.0 25.6 27.0 819 945 TX 2/ : 1.1 .3 25.5 32.0 28 10 : US : 57.6 58.3 28.5 29.4 1,641 1,713 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 437.0 440.0 34.6 34.0 15,122 14,960 HI 2/ : 53.0 43.0 76.8 78.0 4,070 3,354 LA 2/ : 400.0 370.0 25.6 27.0 10,240 9,990 TX 2/ : 42.3 34.5 32.2 26.7 1,364 920 : US : 932.3 887.5 33.0 32.9 30,796 29,224 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Current estimates carried forward from earlier forecast. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted February 1, 1997 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1994-95 : 1995-96 : 1996-97 : 1994-95 : 1995-96 : 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 400 700 550 15 27 21 CA 4/ : 35,000 38,000 39,000 1,313 1,426 1,463 FL : 119,700 121,200 133,000 5,387 5,454 5,985 TX : 950 830 1,300 40 35 55 US : 156,050 160,730 173,850 6,755 6,942 7,524 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 650 950 850 24 36 32 CA 4/ : 21,000 28,000 26,000 788 1,051 975 FL : 85,800 82,000 87,000 3,861 3,690 3,915 TX : 105 110 150 4 4 6 US : 107,555 111,060 114,000 4,677 4,781 4,928 All : AZ 4/ : 1,050 1,650 1,400 39 63 53 CA 4/ : 56,000 66,000 65,000 2,101 2,477 2,438 FL : 205,500 203,200 220,000 9,248 9,144 9,900 TX : 1,055 940 1,450 44 39 61 US : 263,605 271,790 287,850 11,432 11,723 12,452 Temples : FL : 2,550 2,150 2,500 114 97 113 Grapefruit : White Seedless : FL : 25,700 23,200 26,500 1,092 986 1,126 Colored Seedless : FL : 28,700 28,100 31,500 1,220 1,194 1,339 Other : FL : 1,300 1,050 1,000 55 45 43 All : AZ 4/ : 1,400 1,200 1,000 47 40 34 CA 4/ 5/ : Desert : 3,300 111 Other Areas : 6,000 201 Total : 9,300 8,100 9,000 312 271 302 FL : 55,700 52,350 59,000 2,367 2,225 2,508 TX : 4,650 4,550 5,500 186 182 220 US : 71,050 66,200 74,500 2,912 2,718 3,064 Tangerines : AZ 4/ : 650 1,000 750 25 38 28 CA 4/ : 2,500 2,600 2,700 94 97 101 FL : 3,550 4,500 6,200 168 213 295 US : 6,700 8,100 9,650 287 348 424 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 3,600 5,100 4,000 137 194 152 CA : 20,000 21,000 22,000 760 798 836 US : 23,600 26,100 26,000 897 992 988 Tangelos : FL : 3,150 2,450 4,000 142 110 180 K-Early Citrus : FL : 120 160 150 5 7 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus Fruit Footnotes 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with year harvest is completed. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76, tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early and mid-season varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5/ California Desert and Other Areas Grapefruit forecasts combined to All Grapefruit beginning in 1995-96. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------ Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :----------------------------------------: 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --------------- Acres -------------- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : Dec : 3,455 1,475 3,040 Jan : 3,765 3,435 2,365 1,495 3,575 3,280 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ California Nut Crops: Bearing Acreage, Yield, Production, Price, and Value by Crop, 1994-95 and Revised 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Bearing Acreage : Yield per Acre 1/ Crop :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 :----------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- Acres ----------- -- Tons (In-Shell Basis) -- : Walnuts : (English) : 171,000 169,000 169,000 1.36 1.38 1.23 : : : Pounds (Shelled Basis) : Almonds : 409,000 400,000 410,000 1,800 925 1,270 :----------------------------------------------------------------- : Production : Price per Unit :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 :----------------------------------------------------------------- : --- Tons (In-Shell Basis) --- ----- Dollars per Ton ----- : Walnuts : (English) 2/ : 232,000 234,000 208,000 1,030 1,400 : : 1,000 Pounds (Shelled Basis) ---- Dollars per Pound --- : Almonds 3/ : 735,000 370,000 520,000 1.34 2.48 2.10 :----------------------------------------------------------------- : Value of Utilized Production :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Dollars : Walnuts : (English) 2/ : 238,960 327,600 : : Almonds 3/ : 965,202 880,896 1,048,320 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Yield based on utilized production. 2/ Price and value estimates for 1996 will be published on July 3, 1997. 3/ Price and value estimates are based on the edible portion of the crop only. Included in production are inedible quantities of no value as follows: 1994 - 14.7 million pounds, 1995 - 14.8 million pounds, 1996 - 20.8 million pounds. HDR2012000110010212970830NARRATIVE January Weather Summary: Frigid weather, often accompanied by light snow and blowing snow, capped one of the coldest, snowiest November-January periods on record across the northern Plains and western Great Lakes States. Monthly temperatures averaged up to 7 degrees F below normal on the northern Plains. Cold air overspread the Nation at mid-month, culminating in a brief but damaging freeze on January 19 across Peninsular Florida. Despite the brief chill, monthly temperature departures ranged from +1 to +4 degrees F across much of the Southeast. Mild weather also prevailed in the West, where temperatures averaged as much as 4 degrees F above normal. Northern and central California's flood, already underway when 1997 began, intensified during the first few days of the year, as nearly unprecedented rainfall rates were accompanied by significant snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada foothills. Another pair of storms struck the flood-affected region after mid- month, dumping a month's worth of precipitation in a week and slowing flood- recovery efforts. Above-normal snowfall continued to plague the North Central States, where spring flooding will be a threat if the above-normal snowpack melts rapidly and is accompanied by heavy precipitation. In contrast, little precipitation fell on the central and southern Plains for the second consecutive month. During November 1996 - January 1997, temperatures averaged 8.8 degrees F in Aberdeen, SD and 8.2 degrees F in Glasgow, MT. Both values were the lowest on record, eclipsing standards set in 1911-12 and 1977-78, respectively. Glasgow's season-to-date snowfall (43.3 inches) was also a record, smashing the record set in 1970-71. Although Aberdeen's season-to-date snowfall (60.2 inches) was only second on record, their snow depth reached an all-time record 30 inches on January 10-14 and 16-18. In North Dakota, snowfall topped 20 inches for the third consecutive month in Fargo (28.6 inches), boosting their seasonal total to 75.4 inches (188 percent of their annual normal). Only the first few and last few days of January offered a respite to the North Central States. On January 2, a maximum of 40 degrees F in Grand Forks, ND was their first above-freezing reading since November 8. And on January 31, the mercury hit 40 degrees F in Minneapolis, MN for the first time since November 17. Lake-effect snow squalls were prevalent during the month. In Michigan, January- record totals were observed in many locations, including Grand Rapids (45.5 inches), Alpena (55.8 inches), Marquette (91.7 inches), and Ironwood (100.7 inches). In addition, monthly precipitation reached January-record levels in Alpena (4.12 inches) and Marquette (6.61 inches). Snow also fell heavily at times in the Midwest. In Illinois, Springfield's 19.3-inch total was their third-greatest January amount on record. Farther east, a record-setting lake-effect snow storm dumped 91 inches on Montague, NY, 77 inches of which fell in 24 hours on January 11-12. But in contrast to a year ago, when the Blizzard of '96 struck the East, monthly snowfall totaled only 1.7 inches in Philadelphia, PA and 2.2 inches in Huntington, WV. In Dade County, FL, lows on January 19 dipped to 31 degrees F in Homestead and 32 degrees F in Perrine. Near Ft. Myers, temperatures remained below freezing for up to 9 hours and at or below 28 degrees F for up to 4 hours. Temperatures across central Florida fell to 25 degrees F in Plant City and 26 degrees F in Orlando. Heavy rain preceded the cold weather across southern Florida on January 13-14, including a 24-hour, January-record total (5.82 inches) in Ft. Lauderdale. Farther west, poorly insulated winter wheat on the central Plains was sporadically exposed to sub-zero temperatures. Some of the lowest readings occurred on January 13 and 28, especially across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. In addition, monthly precipitation totaled only a trace in locations such as North Platte, NE and Concordia, KS. More substantial precipitation fell across northern Texas however, including 10.8 inches of snow in Amarillo and 4.5 inches in Lubbock. In Amarillo, more precipitation fell during the first 13 days of January (0.57 inches) than during January 1 - May 22, 1996. Heavy precipitation ended across northern and central California on January 3 after a nearly continual 2-week storm chain. The region was especially battered between December 26 and January 3, when totals in the Sierra Nevada foothills topped 40 inches at a few locations. In the Feather River basin, 72-hour totals reached 27.56 inches at Bucks Lake. Despite the low-elevation rainfall and runoff, snow-water equivalent continued to mount in the Sierra Nevada, increasing from an average of 18 inches (140 percent of normal for the date) on January 6 to 29 inches (about 160 percent of normal) by month's end. The increase was largely due to a pair of strong storms that struck between January 20-27 and delivered a typical month's worth or more of precipitation. By the end of January, the holdings of California's 155 primary reservoirs had increased 12 percent from a year ago, standing at 136 percent of normal and 83 percent of capacity. Lake Tahoe posted a record "gates-closed" rise (actual rise plus dam release) for 1- and 2-month periods. Tahoe's gates-closed rise was 2.15 feet in January and 3.52 feet in December-January, eclipsing records set in December 1964 and November-December 1950, respectively. When Tahoe's elevation peaked at 6,229.39 feet above sea level on January 5, it represented the lake's highest crest since July 17, 1917. Interestingly, Tahoe's record-low level was set less than 5 years ago, on November 30, 1992. Widespread flooding occurred on both sides of the Sierra Nevada crest. On the east slopes, the Walker and Truckee River systems were among those scoured by floodwaters. In California's Central Valley, Modesto and Olivehurst were among the hardest-hit areas. Numerous levee failures caused widespread damage in several basins, especially along the Cosumnes, Mokelumne, Tuolumne, and Feather Rivers. Unprecedented flooding occurred at several gauging sites, including the Tuolumne River at Modesto, where the peak flow topped 70,000 cubic feet per second on January 4, eclipsing the record of 57,000 set on December 9, 1950. Temperatures averaged up to 5 degrees F below normal in interior Alaska and near normal across the south. In Fairbanks, the lowest temperature of the season-to- date (-51 degrees F) occurred on January 7, a few days before the bitterly cold airmass reached the Lower 48. Precipitation was below normal except at a few western and southern locations. In Hawaii, wet weather affected the western islands, while warmth prevailed farther to the east. Honolulu's monthly rainfall of 6.92 inches was 195 percent of normal. On January 27, Hilo notched a January-record high of 92 degrees F. General Crop Comments: January weather conditions were varied and often harsh across much of the country. Heavy rains and melting snow caused flooding in central and northern California. Bitterly cold weather and blowing snow gripped much of the northern half of the country, stressing livestock and pressuring feed supplies. The winter wheat crop in the central Plains remained generally free of weather damage. However, this was the second straight month that an area from Texas to Nebraska was without significant precipitation. A cold front pushed through Florida on January 19, dropping temperatures below freezing and into the teens in some areas. Some citrus and vegetable damage was reported, especially to vegetables in southern Florida. In central and northern California, the new year began with a powerful storm slamming waves of warm rain through the valley and well into the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Resulting snowmelt supplemented the storm run-off; floodwaters broke many levees and covered farmlands. For most of the month, rain and wet soils halted field activities. Crops in well-drained fields were in good condition, but others were showing heavy water damage. Some fields were a total loss and will need to be replanted. Significant damage to the farm infrastructure, including buildings, equipment, land, irrigation systems, and private levees, was reported. During the month, much of the northern third of the country, especially an area around the Dakotas, endured extremely harsh winter conditions. Bitterly cold weather, high winds, and blowing snow placed livestock under extreme stress. Supplemental feeding was required, pressuring already short feed supplies. In some areas, producers were having great difficulty getting feed to their animals. Producers were reporting much higher than normal death loss and are concerned about the upcoming calving season. Local roads were closed, preventing the movement of crops and livestock to market. Some dairy farms were dumping milk because milk haulers were prevented from making pick-ups. Winter wheat in the central and southern Great Plains was in generally good condition. However, crop condition was down slightly from a month earlier. A continued lack of significant precipitation for the second straight month in an area from Texas to Nebraska has had some impact on small grains. The lack of snow cover also affected the crop during periods of extreme cold. The dry weather has created a potential wind damage problem, but only light damage has been reported to date. A cold front pushed through Florida on January 16th. On the morning of the 19th temperatures across much of the interior dropped into the 20's. Readings in the 20's were recorded as far south as southern Florida. Generally, temperatures were not low enough, long enough to cause serious damage to citrus trees. However, there was fruit icing in many areas of the State. The cold weather caused varying amounts of damage to southern Florida vegetable crops, with significant damage reported in some areas. The green canopy in sugarcane fields was damaged. In some fields, the leaves were only scorched, and in other fields, the total top was killed. Sugarcane: The 1996 production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is expected to total 29.2 million tons. This is unchanged from the last forecast published in the "Crop Production 1996 Summary," released in mid-January, but represents a 5 percent decrease from last years output. The Florida forecast was evaluated and resulted in no change in production. The forecasts for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas were carried forward from the annual report. Dry weather in Florida has allowed the harvest to remain on schedule. Approximately 40% of the sugarcane crop was unharvested at the time of the freeze in January, with 60 days left to complete the harvest. In some areas, the freeze scorched the top leaves, while in other areas the entire top was killed, effectively stopping any further growth. The juice in the stems did not freeze so the they were not ruptured. The canopy is cut off and left in the field during normal harvest operations so this did not result in an additional loss, and the mills do not expect any change in the amount of cane delivered. The freeze may have caused damage to next seasons crop. Some sugarcane that was just coming-up was killed back to the ground. Temples: The 1996-97 forecast of Florida temples remains at 2.50 million boxes (113,000 tons), 16 percent above last season. Through January, a little over 500,000 boxes are picked. January surveys indicate that the average fruit size and the loss due to droppage are both at all-time lows. Grapefruit: The February 1 forecast of the 1996-97 U.S. grapefruit crop is a record large 3.06 million tons, unchanged from last month's forecast but 13 percent larger than last year. This year's crop exceeds the previous record of 3.032 million tons in the 1976-77 season. The Florida all grapefruit forecast is a record large 59.0 million boxes (2.51 million tons), unchanged from the last forecast but 13 percent more than last season. The all seedless grapefruit forecast is 58.0 million boxes. Varietal divisions are maintained at 31.5 million boxes of colored grapefruit and 26.5 million boxes of white grapefruit. If attained, the total seedless will be 13 percent above the 51.3 million boxes recorded last season and 7 percent above the record high of 54.4 million boxes in the 1994-95 season. The colored grapefruit forecast exceeds the 1994-95 record crop of 28.7 million boxes by 10 percent and last season's crop by 12 percent. The white variety exceeds last season by 14 percent but will not be a record. The seedy (Duncan) grapefruit forecast is continued at 1.0 million boxes. The January fruit size survey indicated that the average fruit sizes for colored and white grapefruit are almost identical to historic means but are much smaller than the extremely large sizes seen in the past two seasons. Fruit loss from droppage through late January continued less than average and near the minimal loss of last season. The first row count survey of the season was conducted on February 3-4, 1997, to measure harvest progress. The all seedless percent of rows harvested is only slightly less than the percent utilized to the same dates. Recorded utilization of all seedless grapefruit is at 17 million boxes, with the colored varieties accounting for nearly 13 million boxes. The Florida forecasts are based on objective fruit counts and measurement surveys in relationship to the harvest patterns and utilization of the past two seasons. All citrus forecasts project certified utilization including a preseason allocation of less than two percent for unrecorded usage. Certifi- cations include only fruit actually shipped in fresh pack or recorded at a processing plant. Tangerines: The 1996-97 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at a record large 424,000 tons, up 2 percent from January and 22 percent higher than last season. The 1995-96 crop of 348,000 tons was the previous record large crop. Florida's tangerine forecast is up 3 percent from last month to 6.20 million boxes (295,000 tons), 38 percent more than 1995-96. Harvest of early tangerines was virtually complete for the season, while the Honey tangerine harvest was just underway. Recent weekly estimates of early tangerine utilization continue beyond expectations. Loss from fruit droppage of Honey tangerines was at a record low through the January survey period, but the below freezing weather on January 19 may increase droppage if affected trees are not harvested rapidly. The Arizona and California tangerine forecasts were carried forward from January 1. Tangelos: Florida's 1996-97 tangelo forecast is 4.00 million boxes (180,000 tons) up 5 percent from last month's forecast and 63 percent more than last season's crop. Harvest was almost complete with more than 70 percent going to the processor. This is the largest utilized tangelo crop since 1987-88. Florida Citrus: Freezing temperatures the morning of January 19 interrupted what was otherwise a very warm month. Temperatures were below freezing in most citrus counties for varying amounts of time Saturday night and Sunday morning. Temperatures were not low enough to cause serious wood damage to trees. The heavy frost in some locations contributed to some defoliation, primarily on younger trees in cold spots. There was icing in some areas in oranges, Temples, Honey tangerines, and tangelos. Harvest rapidly accelerated on the early fruit with most of the damaged crops going to the processors. Very little grapefruit was affected by the cold. There is sufficient undamaged fruit to continue operating virtually all fresh fruit packing houses. Utilization of early and mid-season oranges is almost 100 million boxes with nearly 98 percent going to the processors. Texas Citrus: Growers again dodged a cold front in January with little damage. Grapefruit harvest moved ahead with good volume of movement. Demand remained good with prices slightly above last season. Packout rates also remained good. Early and mid season orange harvest neared completion. Valencia harvest just began. California Citrus: Wet weather in January slowed citrus harvest. Grapefruit picking in the desert area was active with smooth texture and fair color. Lemons throughout the state were harvested. Packing grades have been fair to good, but some scar was reported. The navel orange harvest continued with approximately one-third of the crop picked. The fruit has very large sizes, with some scar, scale, puff, and crease reported. Valencia orange harvest should begin by mid-February in the desert area. Tangerine picking was active with very good quality reported. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is 3.28 million pounds for January. This was 8 percent higher than December, but 8 percent lower than January 1996. A mix of rain, sunshine, and gusty winds made weather conditions variable during January. Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,435 acres, 1 percent lower than December and 9 percent lower than January 1996. Harvested area, totaling 1,495 acres, was 1 percent higher than last month, but 37 percent lower than a year ago. California Fruits and Nuts: Excessive rain and flooding prevented growers from working in orchards during much of January. At month's end, many trees were still standing in water. Pruning activities in orchards and vineyards continued, when possible. Almonds and early varieties of stonefruit began to bloom. Walnuts, 1996 Revised: 1996 California walnut production has been revised to 208,000 tons (in-shell basis), up 1 percent from January's preliminary estimate. This is down 11 percent from 1995's production of 234,000 tons. Estimates for 1996 price and value will be published on July 3, 1997. Almonds, 1996 Revised: 1996 California almond production remains unchanged from January's preliminary estimate of 520 million meat pounds. This level is 41 percent higher than 1995's production but 29 percent lower than 1994's record high crop. Value of utilized production for 1996 was a record high $1.05 billion, 19 percent above 1995 and 9 percent greater than 1994. Report Features The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 11, 1997. Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843 Kevin Barnes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Dan Kerestes - Corn (202) 720-9526 Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Joel Moore - Barley, Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Greg Preston - Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather, Oats (202) 720-7621 Barbara Rater - Peanuts, Rice, Tobacco (202) 720-7688 Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Vince Matthews, Head (202) 720-3843 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums, Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup (202) 720-7235 Linda McMillan - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215 Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157 Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms, Hops (202) 690-0270 Blair Smith - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. 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USDA Announces Agricultural Outlook Forum 97 February 24 and 25, 1997 Omni Shoreham Hotel, Washington, D.C. An era of freer markets under the 1996 Farm Bill has begun. For an expert assessment of the impact, attend the Outlook Forum. Top speakers will discuss the 1997 farm outlook, prospects to 2005, risk management, concentration issues, market stability, world food security, marketing high-valued exports and more. Plan now to attend. For program and registration details, check Forum home page, call (202) 720-3050 or dial (202) 219-0296 from your fax machine and request document 66666. Send e-mail to agforum@oce.usda.gov. Get news from the Forum. Can't attend? After the Forum, download speeches from the Internet. Or, call 1-800-999-6779 to place an advance order for the printed proceedings (YCON-97) or new long term projections to 2005 (WAOB-97-1). Ag Forum home page: http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm Agricultural Outlook Forum 97