FXUS62 KCHS 031340
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
940 AM EDT TUE AUG 3 2004

.SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE LTL IF ANY 
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM HURCN ALEX TODAY AS IT BRUSHES THE NC OUTER 
BANKS. A SFC TROF LINGERING OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ALEX WILL 
LIKELY FOCUS TSTM ACTIVITY THIS AFTN ONCE THE ATMOS DESTABILIZES. 
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FROM JAX AND CHS INDICATE MODERATE POTENTIAL 
INSTABILITY WITH HIGH PWATS RANGING FROM 2.03-2.20 INCHES. MID-LEVEL 
STEERING FLOW IS FAIRLY LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF 8 KT...SO TSTMS WILL 
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED 
FLOODING. 

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE GREATEST PCPN COVERAGE WILL BE 
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN SC AND ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER AS THESE AREAS 
APPEAR TO BE CAUGHT BTWN A ELONGATED VORT MAX ROTATING NEAR THE 
AUGUSTA AREA AND A LINGERING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ROTATING 
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ALEX/S CIRC. PLAN TO INCR POPS TO 40 
PERCENT IN THESE AREAS WITH 30 PERCENT POPS FARTHER S. FIRST PERIOD 
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK. LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ROTATING THROUGH 
SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES AND A NICE CU FIELD FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...THE OVERALL RIP CURRENT RISK HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY 
SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE PASSING OF ALEX. THE KIAWAH LIFEGUARD GROUP 
JUST REPORTED A LOW RISK SO WILL LIKELY GO WITH THIS UNLESS THE 
FOLLY AND/OR BEACHWALKER GROUPS INDICATE OTHERWISE WHEN THE REPORT 
LATER THIS MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW AND AND RESIDUAL SWELL EMANATING FROM ALEX 
HAS RESULTED IN VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WTRS THIS MRNG. 
COMBINED SEAS HWVR CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH REPORTS FROM BOTH 
THE SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON HARBOR PILOT BOATS INDICATING SEAS OF 
2-4 FT. TOUGH CALL ON WHETHER A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE CAN DEVELOP 
TODAY WITH AN OFFSHORE TRAJ BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS 
GO CALM OR LGT S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY MID AFTN. NOT MUCH 
CHANGES IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT MARINE PKG.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT TRENDS ARE BEING WELL HANDLED BY THE CURRENT TAF 
SET. SHOULD SEE RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT THE CHS TERMINAL 
SHORTLY AS LOW CLOUDS/CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND MIX OUT. WILL LIKELY KEEP 
MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF BOTH TERMINALS FOR NOW AND IN KEEP A MENTION 
OF CB.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST