####018004087#### FXUS64 KFWD 130449 AAC AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1049 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009 .AVIATION... NEW INFORMATION SUGGESTS CIGS MAY HOLD IN THE MVFR CATEGORY MOST OF THE MORNING WITH LITTLE OR NO IFR IMPACT OVER THE METROPLEX...BUT NOT SO FOR KACT AS BRIEF IFR IS EXPECTED 14-16Z. NO CHANGE IN THINKING ABOUT DRYLINE OR FRONTAL TIMING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRYLINE...THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTH FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 75 && .UPDATE... 906 PM CST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND THE MAIN CHANGE HAS BEEN TO LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES FOR THE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. 58 && .AVIATION... 524 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009 UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA IS SPREADING MID AND HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS ACROSS NTX THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IOWA BY 00Z FRIDAY (1800 THURS). IN THE PROCESS...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS NTX TAF SITES WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS FOR THE METROPLEX SITES...AND IFR TO MVFR FOR KACT...MOST OF FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS OVER THE METROPLEX SITES 14-16Z. CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR BY 20Z. A DRYLINE WILL NEAR THE TAF SITES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES..THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY EITHER VERY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. SPEEDS GENERALLY 7-12KTS UNTIL AFTER COLD FROPA FRIDAY EVENING. 75 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009/ FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE WAVES/TROFS/DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EVERY 2-3 DAYS WITH THIS PATTERN. FIRST TROF MOVES ACROSS NORTH TX FRIDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND I AM ONLY FORECASTING LOW POPS IN THE MORE EASTERN COUNTIES. ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/TROF MOVES ACROSS AND WE GET SIMILAR POP CHANCES...ONLY A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH 20 POPS IN THE METROPLEX AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. A THIRD TROF IS PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT DEW POINTS MAY CLIMB INTO THE 60S OVER EASTERN AREAS AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. NO POPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A.M. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY COLD AIR WELL NORTH INTO THE PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MANY AREAS.THE PACIFIC FRONTS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL COOL OFF THE AREA FOR A DAY OR SO EACH...WITH MONDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS THE COOLEST THIS WEEK. SOME RURAL AREAS WILL SEE A FREEZE THOSE DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S AND OCCASIONAL LOW 70S THE REST OF THE WEEK ARE NOT TOO FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGY. 84 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 53 71 43 58 42 / 5 10 5 0 20 WACO, TX 52 70 45 61 50 / 5 10 5 0 20 PARIS, TX 46 66 41 58 40 / 5 20 5 0 20 DENTON, TX 51 71 38 59 40 / 5 10 5 0 10 MCKINNEY, TX 50 69 38 59 41 / 5 10 5 0 20 DALLAS, TX 53 70 43 59 45 / 5 10 5 0 20 TERRELL, TX 50 68 45 62 47 / 5 10 5 0 20 CORSICANA, TX 51 69 45 59 46 / 5 10 10 0 30 TEMPLE, TX 51 71 48 60 49 / 5 10 5 5 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 75/58