FXUS63 KICT 061308 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 806 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2003 JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR OUT SOME MORNING WORDING FOR SOME OF THE ZONES AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS NICELY AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT THE REMAINING CLOUDS OVER SE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH STAR SHINING BRIGHTLY TDY ACROSS THE AREA. FCSTID = 15/JAKUB -------------------------------------------------------- 300 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2003 TODAY: RAIN/THUNDER SHOULD MOVE EWD OUT OF SERN KS EARLY THIS AM AS THE 850 TROF MOVES THROUGH. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL KS AS CLEARING WORKS IN FM THE WEST AND DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. WL COVER FOR THIS IN THE ZONES/GRIDS FOR MUCH OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS. ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE/DRYING BEHIND THE TROF AXIS WL THEN LEAD TO CLEARING FM W-E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. 1000/850 THICKNESSES COUPLED WITH LIGHT NW WINDS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS OF 75-80. TONIGHT: SFC RIDGE AXIS WL INFLUENCE THE FCST AREA WITH LGT/VAR WINDS. COULD SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE ETA WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS BRINGING IN CIRRUS FM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. SO MAY OPT TO HOLD OFF INSERTING FOG ATTM. SAT-SAT NIGHT: NEXT UPR TROF (OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS AM) WL ROTATE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WL BRING THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO THE FCST AREA. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LOW LVL TROF AXIS MOVG THRU TO HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS. THE ETA/GFS AGREE ON INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT, SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL DESPITE DECENT SHEAR. SO THIS SYSTEM MAY BEHAVE SIMILIARLY TO THE ONE CURRENTLY MOVG THRU. THE 850 TROF AXIS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF SERN KS AFTER 06Z SAT NIGHT, HELPING TO END THE RAIN. WL CARRY POPS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55 PCT SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE TIMING OF THE LOW LVL TROF FEATURE IN COMBO WITH THE CLOUD COVER, INDICATE THE COOLEST HIGHS WL BE IN CNTRL KS (70-75), WITH WARMER READINGS IN THE SE (NR 80). SUN-SUN NGHT: SUBSIDENCE, DOWNGLIDE AND DRYING WL OCCUR BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPR TROF. THIS WL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPS. UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO WRLY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN WEAK SWRLY BY THURS. LEE TROF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HI PLAINS WL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS THAN RECENTLY. DEEP LOW LVL MOISTURE WL RETURN ON MONDAY AS THE GULF OPENS UP. ATTM, CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK SLIGHT ON ANY GIVEN DAY AND DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING WITH WEAK WAVES INDICATED IN THE UPR FLOW. ONLY THE MRF INDICATES A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS APPROACHING NRN KS FM THE N WED-THURS, WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONTS FURTHER N. WL LEAVE SLT CHC POPS IN FOR WED-THURS GIVEN THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. BUT WL GO DRY MON-TUES AS ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD IN OUR FCST AREA. .ICT...NONE.