AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1110 AM MDT FRI JUN 16 2000 MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING PACKAGE. FIRST WAS TO ADJUST TEMPS...UP A CATEGORY OVER THE CWA AND BREAK OUT YUMA COUNTY TO LOWER TEMPS. LATEST 12Z ETA 2M TEMPS/15Z RUC AGREE ON WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE EAST...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE SUN IS SHINING...AND COOLEST TEMPS OVER THE WEST...WHICH IS WHERE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDCOVER EXISTS AND NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED. OTHER THAN THAT... ADJUSTED WINDSPEEDS DOWN TO 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE AND ADJUSTED SKYCOVER OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN CWA FOR PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. .GLD...NONE. THEDE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 910 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2000 SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS STILL MOVG ACRS THE AREA FM THE W. CAN SEE ACTIVITY WEAKENING OVR THE SRN PART. HOWEVER THE RUC PICKS UP ON A VORT MAX OVR SW VA AND TRIES TO KEEP SOME ACTIVITY GOING UNTIL 06Z ACRS THE NE PART OF THE AREA. WL HOLD CHC UNTIL ARND MID THERE. FARTHER W TIMING OF LARGE TSTM COMPLEX OVR OH AND INTO WRN PA COULD SLIP INTO EXTREME WRN COUNTIES ARND 06Z IF HOLD TOGETHER SO GOING TO KEEP CHC ALL NIGHT THERE. OVR THE E DROPPING ALL POPS. SKIES SHD BE PTLY CLDY MOST AREAS. ON TEMPS CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH DP IN THE 70S MANY AREAS ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. .LWX... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. JAB md EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1010 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2000 WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS WITH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN STILL DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. OUN SOUNDING STILL SHOWED A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 650 MB THAT WAS LIMITING ELEVATED CONVECTION IN NE OK THIS EVE. HAD A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THE FRONT IN SE OK BUT THEY COULD NOT OVERCOME CAP AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE AREA. WAITING ON SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO TX PH TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. TCU PROFILER WINDS AT 500 MB HAVE VEERED A BIT DURING THE LAST HR AND EVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT INCREASING OVER WESTERN 2/3RDS OF OK BY 6Z. RUC/NGM/ETA ALL DIFFER IN PLACEMENT OF AXIS OF OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAIN HOWEVER...WITH RUC'S AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN OK...ETA DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER AND NGM INBETWEEN. HPC STILL OUTLOOKING JUST ABOUT ENTIRE AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN AS WELL. /13 .TUL... AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ZONES 1/2/10/11/19/20/29. OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ZONES 53>76...49. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 200 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2000 AFTERNOON LAPS DATA SHOWING CAPES RUNNING 2000+ ACROSS MANY PIEDMONT AREAS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS BEST IN MTNS...BUT INSTABILITY IS MUCH MORE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER. WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER PIEDMONT SHOULD INCREASE A BIT AS MORE OUTFLOWS SET UP. LATEST RUC RUN HINTS AT SFC TROUGHING THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA...BUT LITTLE TROUGHING IS BE FOUND ON LATEST SFC ANALYSIS. THE MESO ETA AND RUC SHOW A WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY CENTER AT THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTN...WHILE THE AVN SENDS A VORT CENTER SPINNING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OVERNIGHT. AT ANY RATE...ALL FORCING MECHANISMS ARE VERY SUBTLE AND NON DISTINCT. PIEDMONT CONVERGENCE WHERE SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST MAY BE THE BEST HOPE FOR EVENING CONVECTION. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HIGHER...THETA E LAPSES SMALLER...AND LESS FORCING WITHOUT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LESS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT WITH POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT LOWER. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED OVER TIME...BUT STAYS SUPPRESSED TO THE NORTH OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. PERSISTENCE WILL BE USED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGHOUT. AVL 65/86/65/86 5444 CLT 70/92/70/92 4333 GSP 70/92/70/92 4333 .GSP...NONE. HG sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA, SC 1010 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 2000 LOOKING AT 09Z RUC AND 06Z ETA...BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR CONVECTION TODAY IS WEST OF SC MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVER THE MTNS OF SC/NC. ETA DOES BRING A WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS THE FL PNHNDL INTO SRN GA WITH SOME LIFT AHEAD OF IT FIRST INTO CSRA BY 00Z AND INTO SC MIDLANDS BY 03Z. TIMING OF LIFT WITH MAX INSTABILITY IS NOT THE BEST...BUT WE HAVE A MOIST AIR MASS...SHOULD GET MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTN...AND WE HAVE A RELATIVELY LOW LFC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT TSTMS BY LATE AFTN/EVNG. SHEAR PROFILE IS UNI-DIRECTIONAL WITH LITTLE SPEED SHEAR FCST BY MODELS. WB ZERO IS ABOVE 12K FT. THUS SVR TSTMS NOT ANTICIPATED. CURRENT POPS LOOK OK. CURRENT MAX TEMP FCST ALSO LOOKS IN LINE WITH LATEST DATA. CAMMARATA .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 852 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2000 OVERALL...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. BEST COVERAGE AND MAIN AREA OF TSRA IS OVER NE GA INTO SW NC ATTM...WHILE ELSEWHERE JUST A FEW SHOWERS NOTED. WILL HAVE TO LEAVE PCPN CHANCES IN OVERNIGHT...BASED ON SATELLITE PICS AND LATEST RUC MODEL...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO DOWNPLAY THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS IN MOST AREAS. WILL RUN HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THE SE TN/SW NC/NE PLATEAU ZONES...AND PERHAPS SMOKIES. OTHERWISE...SOME PATCHY FOG SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHO WILL NEED FOR MID-HI CLOUD DECK TO BREAK UP A BIT TO ENHANCE FOG DEVELOPMENT. MIN TEMP FORECAST IS PROBABLY ON TRACK UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UPDATED ZONES BY AROUND 10 PM EDT. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. TG tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 258 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2000 SATELLITE DATA THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED A TROPICAL CONNECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND MAINLY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. CURRENTLY...REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA...GETTING INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ATTM. ELSEWHERE...THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WAS MORE SCATTERED. THE 16/17Z RUC SUPPORTS NON-SEVERE CONVECTION GETTING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING (AS DO THE 12Z MODELS)...SO WILL MENTION THE CHANCE FOR EVENING T-STORMS. BEYOND TONIGHT...THE 16/12Z MODELS SIMILARLY HANDLE OF THE MAINTENANCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A FRONTAL ZONE AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 48-HRS (THE TIME-MEAN POSITIONING OF THE FRONT LIES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY). IT SEEMS THAT ONE THING DIFFERENT THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING (FROM PREVIOUS RUNS) IS THAT "TROPICAL STEERING" FROM THE GULF MAY SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER WEST ON SAT/SAT NIGHT...AND THIS IS GOOD NEWS SINCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY, FLA. SO...REDUCED THE AVN/S "LIKELY" POPS ON SATURDAY TO CHANCE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY...STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL S/W ENERGY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND POSSIBLY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY NEAR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY JUSTIFY A HIGHER POP THAN CHANCE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP IT AT CHANCE FOR NOW. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS: FCSTID = 4 CHA 70 84 69 86 / 70 50 30 50 TYS 68 83 67 85 / 70 50 30 50 TRI 64 82 65 83 / 60 50 30 50 OQT 69 83 67 85 / 70 50 30 50 .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. DM tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 920 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2000 SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MCALESTER TO THE DOORSTEPS OF WICHITA FALLS THIS EVENING. COOLING MORE OF A BACK-DOOR VARIETY AS THE WIND DIRECTION THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA CONTINUES MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATES SOME KINDLING OF A FEW STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...REMNANTS OF WEAK STORMS NORTH OF ABILENE ARE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NOAM WITH THE MEAN WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE REGION. PRESSURE RISES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH A GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD...SLICE THROUGH THE WESTERN RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST TIER ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK. FWD SOUNDING AT 00Z REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 600 AND 750 MB AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTION SHEAR A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR GENERATING MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WILL THUS OPTION TO KEEP HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST AND TRIM ACCORDINGLY FURTHER SOUTHEAST. .FTW...NONE. ...48... tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1200 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2000 AVIATION DISCUSSION...BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA ACROSS THE FORECAST SITES APPEAR LATE THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND MAINLY FOR THE DFW SITES...GIVEN EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. SOUTH SURFACE WIND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BACK THROUGH 06Z ACROSS ALL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. 83 1129 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2000 COLD FRONT IN OKLAHOMA MAKING GOOD PROGRESS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SLOW DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. AREA FAIRLY WELL CAPPED OFF TODAY... MAY BEGIN TO WEAK LATE AFTERNOON...THUS HOLDING ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH. WE WILL UPDATED THE MORNING FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND ADJUST TEMPS UPWARD A LITTLE ON SATURDAY. NEWEST ETA AND RUC INDICATE MOSTLY ANTE-FRONT CHARACTERICS TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND JET FORCING COME INTO PLAY. THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. STILL FEEL THAT WITH VERY HIGH PW/S AND SOME THICKNESS SATURATION ACROSS THE AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE LATE THIRD AND FOURTH PERIODS NORTHERN THIRD. VAD WINDS RUNNING 30 KNOTS OF LESS IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET. WILL LOWER AFTERNOON WINDS TO LAKE CAUTION FOR ENTIRE AREA. .FTW...LAKE CAUTION WINDS ENTIRE AREA. 75 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1129 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2000 COLD FRONT IN OKLAHOMA MAKING GOOD PROGRESS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SLOW DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. AREA FAIRLY WELL CAPPED OFF TODAY... MAY BEGIN TO WEAK LATE AFTERNOON...THUS HOLDING ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH. WE WILL UPDATED THE MORNING FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND ADJUST TEMPS UPWARD A LITTLE ON SATURDAY. NEWEST ETA AND RUC INDICATE MOSTLY ANTE-FRONT CHARACTERICS TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND JET FORCING COME INTO PLAY. THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. STILL FEEL THAT WITH VERY HIGH PW/S AND SOME THICKNESS SATURATION ACROSS THE AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE LATE THIRD AND FOURTH PERIODS NORTHERN THIRD. VAD WINDS RUNNING 30 KNOTS OF LESS IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET. WILL LOWER AFTERNOON WINDS TO LAKE CAUTION FOR ENTIRE AREA. .FTW...LAKE CAUTION WINDS ENTIRE AREA. 75 tx COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 945 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2000 MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED CONVERGENCE...-6 LIFT...THETA-E RIDGE AND 75 DEWPTS OVER NE CWA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING AND STREAMING N IN SOUTHERLY LLJ. 12Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED AN UNSTABLE ATMOS WITH CAPE OVER 4000 J/KG...35 K-INDEX...-7 LI AND 1.89 INCH PW. WV IMAGERY AND RUC DEPICT UPPER LEVEL S/W DRAPED ALONG THE TX COAST. HOWEVER...A 30 TO 35 KNOT LLJ AND LACK OF SFC FOCUS WILL HINDER WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SEABREEZE WILL BE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INLAND. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MIDDLE CWA AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NE AND E CWA. SCA OVER MARINE ZONES ARE VERIFYING. WILL REMOVE ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS. TP...81 .CRP...SCA ALL MARINE ZONES. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 2000 DWPTS QUITE A BIT HIR THAN WHAT WAS XPCTD YDA WITH M/U 60S. MSAS SHWS WK INSTBY AXIS XTNDS ACRS VT WITH MORE STAB AIR MVG IN TO W ZNS FM ONT. H8 DWPTS INCRG TAFTN SO WITH MIXG XPCT SFC DWPTS TO RMN HI TAFTN. RUC INDCTG FTHR DESTAB TAFTN AND MODIFIED SNDGS FOR BTV SHWS 500-1000 CAPE SO CANT RULE OUT A SHWR/TSTM. WL ADD 20 POP FOR VT ZNS WHERE INSTBY GREATER. PREV FCST TMPS LOOK GOOD WITH 80S FA WIDE. 2M TMPS SUPPORT A FEW UPR 80S. .BTV...NONE. KJC vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 853 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2000 RADAR SHOWING WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA PASSING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE ATTM BUT WDSPRD CVRG LIMITED THIS EVE BY LACK OF A GOOD TRIGGER ALOFT. EXPECT WITH SOME INSTAB STILL OVER THE SRN/SERN ZONES THAT CURRENT SHRA WILL BE ABLE TO CONT FOR A WHILE LONGER OUT E BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING CUTS THINGS OFF BY MIDNGT. LATEST MESO-ETA/RUC SUGGEST PTNL FOR MORE SHRA RE-DVLPMENT LATE AS PROGGED WEAK VORT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE WRN ZONES. GIVEN FEED OF TRPCL RH/HIGH PWATS ALONG WITH LINGERING TSRA TO OUR S CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME WDLY SCT CVRG BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR LKLY POPS OVRNGT. THUS PLAN TO CUT POPS BACK ALL ZONES TO CHC OR LOW CHC OVRNGT OTRW PC TO MSTLY CLDY FOR DEBRIS CLDNS ON TRACK. FOG STAB OFF 00Z RAOB SUGGESTS LESS FOG TNGT THAN LAST WITH JUST A BIT MORE BLYR GRAD AND TRPCL TYPE AIR IN PLACE. MAY ADD SOME FOG MENTION IN ESPCLY FOR SPOTS THAT RECEIVED EARLIER RAINFALL BUT JUST PATCHY AT THIS PT WITH CLDNS ARND. GIVEN SOUPY DEWPTS WILL NEED TO BUMP UP TEMPS A NOTCH MOST ZONES OTRW FEW ADTNL CHANGES. .RNK... .VA...NONE. .WV...NONE. .NC...NONE. JH va WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 327 AM MDT SAT JUN 17 2000 WV SATELLITE SHOWS GOOD DEVELOPING TROP UNDULATION AND VORT MAX SIGNATURE MOVING THRU NW CO...WITH RUC POT VORT FIELDS CONFIRMING IT WELL. SOME BANDS OF ENHANCED CLD BENEATH IT NEAR EEO BUT NO PCPN RECORDED. SEEMS LIKE MOST OF ITS INFLUENCE BEING FELT IN THE WAY OF FRONTOGENESIS OVER NERN CO. ANOTHER VORT CENTR NEAR LAS VEGAS IS HEADING TOWARD SW AZ WITH ONLY HI/MID CLDS MOVING TOWARD SERN UT AND 4 CRNRS. THIS TOO APPEARS TO BE PRODUCING ONLY CLOUDS WITH NO LTG OR PCPN RECORDED. THIRD LITTLE VORT OVER NW NMEX HAS ACTIVE PCPN/TSTMS BUT IS MOVG EAST AND WILL SHOULD NOT AFFECT SWRN CO THIS MORNING. TODAY NWRN CO VORT CENTER SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH CLOUD RIDING OVER GREAT BASIN RIDGE AND SPREADING OVER NE UT AND NW CO. MOISTURE FROM T.S. BUD APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTH...BUT IS STEERED AWAY TO THE EAST OVER SRN AZ AND NMEX AND THE 00Z MODELS SEEM TO KEEP IT THAT WAY. INSTEAD A TROF FROM THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INLAND SAT NIGHT AND SPAWN A WEAK SFC LOW AND FRONT OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN AS WEAK VORT MAXES TRAVEL OVER THE INTERMTN STATES. EACH MODEL HAS SIMILAR SOLN FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE AT 700 MB AND ABOVE WITH INCREASING SFC DEW PTS OVER THE CWA AND MINOR DYNAMICS PROVIDING SOME UPLIFT FOR LOW GRADE PCPN. OLD TROUGH HOVERS AROUND LAS VEGAS AS STRONGER TROF OVER PAC NW PROJECTED TO RIDE OVER RIDGE AND THRU NRN ROCKIES MON GRABBING MOISTURE AND VORT ALONG THE WAY FROM THE VEGAS FEATURE TO PRODUCE LOW GRADE POPS SUN THRU MON...THEN EXITS BY TUE. NGM PAINTS MOST PCPN...ETA THE LEAST. WILL BUMP UP PCPN JUST A KNOTCH TO ISOLD IN THE VALLEYS AND WDLY SCTD IN THE MTNS FOR SUN AFTN AND SLGT CHC ON MON. EXTENDED: WITH MODELS AGREEING ON WEAK FROPA MON WITH UPR TROF PASSAGE JUST BEFORE 12Z TUE...TUE AND WED SHOULD SEE A DRYING NW FLOW AS PROJECTED IN MID RANGE MODELS. CUOCO WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORMAL LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY. .GJT...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 830 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2000 LATEST MSAS GRAPHICS SHOWS SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NW TX TO NE OK AND SE MO. RUC2 OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT BE HEADING FARTHER SOUTH VERY FAST. WITH ALL OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...DOUBT IF WE WILL SEE ANY FRONTAL-RELATED CONVECTION REACHING OUR AREA TONIGHT. NONETHELESS... DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH ZERO POPS...SO WILL KEEP 20 OR 30 PCT IN THE FAR NW. WILL REMOVE POPS FARTHER SOUTH...AS ALL OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE-RELATED ACTIVITY HAS DIED. 05 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 215 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2000 MODELS ALL IN PARTIAL AGREEMENT WITH INITIAL CONDITIONS...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION OF FEATURES. NGM IS ONLY MODEL WHICH HANDLES SMALL VORT OVER SE LA TODAY...AS INDICATED BY RUC. ETA EMPHASIZES PROGRESSION OF FRONT...NOW NORTH OF RED RIVER VALLEY... SOUTHWARD INTO EAST TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WASHING OUT. AVN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING UPPER LOW NORTH OUT OF GULF. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS AT ODDS...WILL ASSUME BOTH FEATURES TRY TO CONVERGE INTO AREA. THUS...INCREASE POPS NW AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY...GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY...WHEN ALL MODELS SHOWING BEST MEAN RH VALUES. THIS WOULD AGREE WITH BOTH FAN AND FWC LOWERING MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY FROM PERIOD TWO TO FOUR. A SOUTHWARD SAGGING OF FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ECHO TRAINING...A HEAVY RAIN CONCERN TO AREAS IN TX AND AR ALREADY INUNDATED BY SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOCUS OF HEAVY RAINFALL NOT CLEAR ENOUGH TO WARRANT WATCH AT THIS TIME. SHV 73/88/73/86 3346 TYR 72/88/74/86 2366 MLU 74/86/74/87 4556 LFK 75/85/75/87 3566 TXK 72/87/72/85 2356 .SHV...NONE. VII la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1015 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2000 CONCERNS FOR UPDATE ARE CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS WV/IR LOOP SHOWS BROAD H5 TROF AXIS ORIENTED FM HUDSON BAY SW INTO DAKOTAS. WITHIN TROF TWO SHRTWVS CURRENTLY AFFECTING UPR MI WX ATTM. PARENT SHRTWV IS JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY AND IS CAUSING TREMENDOUS DECENT ACROSS FA...WHILE SECOND WEAKER SHRTWV IS NE OF YQT AND IS SETTING OFF SOME LGT RA ACROSS SW ONTARIO/NRN MN ATTM PER METARS. AT THE SFC THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION IS BETWEEN A VIGOROUS LATE SPRING 981MB LOW BY JAMES BAY AND A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVR NRN PLAINS. AS LOW CRUISES TO NE (6MB 3HR MSAS PRESSURE RISE RIGHT BEHIND IT) PRESSURE GRAD IS RELAXING QUITE A BIT AS ONLY GUSTING PLACES LEFT ARE ALG WATER AT ONT...CMX...AND P59. FOR SENSIBLE WX TONIGHT EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AS 11-3.9 MICRON IMG/SFC OBS SHOW BKN SC DECK BACK INTO SRN MANITOBA INTO UPR MI. HAVE SEEN SOME BREAKS THIS EVG AS SUNSHINE COMBINING WITH STRONG H8-H3 DIVERGENCE IN WAKE OF JAMES BAY SHRTWV WORKED ON THE H85-H75 DECK...PER GRB 00Z SOUNDING. DO EXPECT THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH LINGERING H95-H85 MOISTURE PER 18Z ETA TO HELP FILL IN THE HOLES...AS PEEK OUT WINDOW SHOWS IS HAPPENING HERE AT MQT OFFICE. SLGT LIFT FM SECOND SHRTWV OVR SRN ONTARIO ALSO WL AID IN KEEPING CLOUDS IN. HOWEVER...BELIEVE PRECIP OVR NRN MN WON/T VISIT UPR MI AS RUC/18Z ETA SHOW BEST H85-H3 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SLIDING ACROSS NRN LK SUPERIOR BTWEEN 03Z-12Z. OTHER CONCERN OF THE EVG IS THE WIND TRENDS AND HOW THIS WL EFFECT TEMPS. AS OF 01Z WINDS GENERALLY ARE EXHIBITING NRML DIURNAL DECLINE. HOWEVER...BOTH RUC/ETA SHOW BLYR WINDS REMAINING IN THE 10-20KT RANGE. WL GO WITH SUS WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BASED ON SHRT TERM MODELS AND LATEST FLP GUIDANCE. CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH TEMPS. AM KIND OF LEARY ABOUT POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING CALM ON THE WIND SIDE WHICH WOULD HELP US GET CLOSER TO DWPTS BUT WITH CURRENT DWPTS AROUND 45F ACROSS BOARD (IWD/CMX ARE EXCEPTIONS AROUND 37F) AND CLDS HANGING AROUND...THINK THE 40-45F RANGE LOOKS GOOD. .MQT...NONE. JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 431 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2000 UNUSUAL PTN FOR MID JUNE CONTS...WOULD BE INTERESTING SET UP IN COLD SEASON. AT 0850 UTC 88-D SHOWS MID LVL RETURNS NOT REACHING GROUND ALG AND N OF I-70 AS LATEST IN SERIES OF UPR TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAKS MV TO N OF FCST AREA IN POSITIVE TILTED CNTL U.S. TROF. RUC SHWS BOTH WEAK 700-500 HPA KINEMATIC DEFORMATION AND STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS OVR MOST OF CWA AT 0700 UTC AND FCST THESE FEATURES TO PERSIST THRU 1800 UTC. STAYED WITH DRY FCST ACR NRN THIRD OF CWA TDY BUT ALG I-70 CORRIDOR INTRODUCED POPS FOR STRATOFORM -RA ERLY THIS PM AND LTR IN DAY E OF CARROLLTON AS MID TROPOSPHERIC PACIFIC MSTR TRACKS EWRD WITH PROGRESSIVE SHRT WV TROF. WV LOOP SHWS QUASI-TROPICAL PLUME CONTINUING TO FEED INTO CTNL/ERN MO. 0915 UTC RADAR DATA SHWS STEADY STREAM OF CNVTN ALG SRN BORDER OF CWA WHICH APPRS TO BE INDUCED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST N OF 850 HPA WRM FNT. RUC X-SECT ANLYS AND FCST DATA SHWS WEAK CSI ENVIRONMENT THRU 1800 UTC OVR SRN CWA BET 700&600 HPA AT TOP OF FNTL SLOPE. USED LIKELY POPS TDY FOR MORE CNVTV TYPE PCPN. WENT WITH MID TO UPR 60S ALL ZNS TDY WITH CLDS CVR AND PCPN THREAT WHICH IS CLOSE TO BOTH FAN/FWC. AS AFOREMENTIONED PROGRESSIVE SHRT WV TROF MVS ACR RGN TNGT POTENTIAL EXIST FOR SOAKING RAINFALL OVR SRN ZNS AND AT LEAST A QUICK SPRINKLE TO N. ETA X-SECT FCST DATA SHWS ELEVATED CNVTV THREAT ARND 0600 UTC TNGT SO INTRODUCED CHC TSRA ALL BUT NRN TWO THIRDS. STEADY W TO E CLRG FCST BY MODELS ON SUN. KEPT AM POPS MOST ZNS AND SKEWED TEMPS TO UPR 70S NW AND ALLOW FOR 70-75 RANGE REST OF FCST AREA DUE TO AMBIGUITY IN CLRG TIME. QUICK PEAK AT SEF CAN/MRF SUGGEST XTND FCST IN DECENT SHAPE...MADE NO CHGS. .EAX...NONE. BODNER mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1058 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2000 THE CURRENT VISIBLE STLT LOOP SHOWS CU DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EAST UPPER MICHIGAN. THE CURRENT SURFACE CHART SHOWS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW... FROM THE LOW THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY... NOW EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SETTLING OVER THE STATE THIS EVENING. THE RUC ALSO SHOWS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 800 MB AND 700 MB. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 2C OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND 0C TO -1C OVER EAST UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH HAS HELPED IN THE CU DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DUE TO THE LATEST VISIBLE STLT TRENDS...WILL KEEP PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. .APX...NONE. SWR mi SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 914 AM MDT SAT JUN 17 2000 .TDY AND SUN... UPDATES FORTHCOMING MAINLY FOR TEMPERATURES. NEW ETA RUN AND OLDER ONE FAIRLY CONSISTENT. SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THINGS AS UNSTABLE AS THEY ARE...WOULD LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO FORM WHERE BREAKS APPEAR MOMENTARILY. THUS...WILL KNOCK THINGS DOWN A NOTCH FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY. CAPES ON NEW ETA STILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. RUC MODEL GIVES EVEN HIGHER CAPES THAN DOES THE ETA. WITH FREEZING LEVEL STILL RATHER LOW...SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STORMS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. CHB .MON...TUE...AND WED... GOING EXTENDED FORECAST ON TRACK. ALL MODELS FORECASTING TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS. FCST TEMPS MAY BE TOO COOL IN LATER PERIODS...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE CLOSER LOOK WITH NEW MRF DATA. SCARLETT BIL WBWNB /066 047/083 054/075 051/072 054/076 52320 57 LVM WBWNB /069 044/083 051/073 049/071 051/073 52320 57 HDN WBWNB /068 045/085 052/076 049/072 050/077 52320 57 MLS WBWNB /067 048/085 056/076 052/072 054/078 52420 57 4BQ WBWNB /066 047/082 055/075 050/071 052/077 52420 57 BHK WBWNB /064 044/080 053/074 049/070 050/077 52420 57 SHR WBWNB /066 040/083 049/075 048/072 050/074 52320 57 mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA, SC 235 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2000 HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS AREA. ETA GENERATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING OMEGA ACROSS AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH AROUND ONE INCH QPF OVERNIGHT. AVIATION NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE AS WELL. NEW RUC ALSO SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER OVER WESTERN GEORGIA AT 0300 UTC. AIRMASS EXHIBITING STRONG INSTABILITY WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. SEA BREEZE OVER INLAND SOUTH COAST ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED ON SUNDAY. APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST MAY FOCUS CONVECTION A LITTLE MORE OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY SO WILL HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER CHANCE. NGM HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO HIGH NEXT TWO DAYS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR SO WILL FAVOR THE LOWER AVIATION NUMBERS. EXTENDED RANGE SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH WEAKING OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AFTER MID WEEK SO WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING MUCH WITH LOWS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS AROUND 90. FCSTID = 30 CAE 73 91 72 88 / 30 30 30 40 AGS 70 93 69 89 / 30 30 30 40 SSC 71 91 71 88 / 30 30 30 40 OGB 71 91 71 89 / 30 30 30 40 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. RCC sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1001 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2000 STEERING WINDS OVERNIGHT ALLOWED CONVECTION TO MOVE INLAND OVER EXTREME ERN CHS COUNTY. THIS PRECIP DID NOT APPEAR IN THE MODELS UNTIL IT HAD ALREADY STARTED AND THE RUC HAD A CHANCE TO PICK UP ON IT THIS MORNING. STEERING WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE SW THIS MORNING AND EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN MOSTLY OFF THE COAST. FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZE AND MCON MOVING INLAND PARTICULARLY OVER INLAND GA. SOUNDINGS SHOW ATM NOT AS MOIST AS YDAY BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY STILL EXPECTED. TEMPTED TO PUT AN ISOLATED MENTION IN THE INLAND COUNTIES OF SC AND MAY DO JUST THAT FOR AT LEAST JASPER...COLLETON AND HAMPTON COUNTIES AS EXPECTING EVENTS THIS AFTN TO UNFOLD SIMILAR TO YDAY. TEMP FCST LOOKS GOOD. CWF...WINDS HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY OFF OF THEIR NOCTURNAL SURGE. WILL INITIALIZE CONDITIONS A BIT LOWER AND CLOSER TO LATEST OBS THEN INCREASE THEM AGAIN SLIGHTLY LATER THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZE INFLUENCE AND TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT EXPECTED. .CHS... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. SLF sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 926 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2000 AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING SE INTO OUR NW CWFA THIS MORNING. BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH INTO OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES. RUC AND MESO ETA MODELS BRING SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR COUNTIES TODAY. APPEARS THAT THE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE BIG COUNTRY. CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWFA WILL CURTAIL HIGH TEMPERATURES. WILL UPDATE ZONE PACKAGE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF COUNTIES TODAY. WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE AND WIND ADJUSTMENTS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...HIGH THETA E VALUES AND 850 MILLIBAR TEMPS OF 16-19 DEGREES C PLUS SLOW MOVEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT EXISTS AND WILL MENTION IN ZONES. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL AT SOME POINT...AND TRAINING EFFECT COULD SET UP...WILL MONITOR SITUATION CLOSELY. .SJT...NONE. 19 N tx