FXUS61 KBTV 061901
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
301 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

AREA OF MORNING SHOWERS LEFT THE CWA BEFORE NOON...REMNANTS OF SOME
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FURTHER WEST.  MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AT THIS TIME...WITH A LITTLE SUN
SHINING THROUGH THE LOW CLOUDS.

SFC LOW FORECAST ON ETA AND AVN TO MOVE OVER CWA OVERNIGHT...
SHIFTING WINDS TO WEST OR NORTHWEST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED +CAPE...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION. WITH LIGHTNING SHOWING OUT WEST ALREADY...LEFT
IN MENTION OF THUNDER TONIGHT...BUT BACKED OFF TO CHANCE.

ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE
SAME OR A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS REMAINS
NEARLY SAME AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES DURING THE DAY...AND
SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUN TO PEEK THROUGH AND WARM UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS SHOW UP ON THURSDAY AS A SECOND SURFACE LOW
PASSES TO THE SOUTH.   GFS AND ETA MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT...WITH ETA FORMING A STRONGER AND FASTER 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF MEAN TROUGH.  GFS IS A LITTLE WEAKER
AND SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE...SO SFC LOW NOT AS WELL DEFINED...
SLOWER...AND PRECIP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. WENT WITH A BLEND...
SHOWING OVERALL BETTER PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SOUTH THAN THE NORTH.
TEMPS COOL THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDS AND RAIN...THEN COOL AIR BACKDOORS
INTO NE VT TO PUT TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY.

IN EXTENDED...BIG CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE CHCS FOR PRECIP OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS REGION. GFS TRIES TO SPREAD
PRECIP INTO AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SFC LOW ON SUNDAY...BUT THINKING ITS
TOO EARLY AS UPPER RIDGE STILL IN PLACE.

GOOD COORDINATION ON CHAT SESSION TODAY WITH GYX...BUF...AND BGM.

.BTV...NONE.

HANSON