FXUS64 KOHX 010804
AFDBNA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
145 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF WEAK COOL FRONT/TROUGH HAS CROSSED THE 
MISSISSIPPI INTO WEST TN. LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE 
MOVING EAST AT 15-18 MPH. THIS WOULD PUT IT INTO BENTON AND STEWART
COUNTIES AROUND 420 AM. PRECIP SHOULD COVER MOST OF THE AREA
BY MID AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING STRIKES, SO
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER AT ISOLATED. AVN SHOWING ASSOCIATED 
TROUGH/WEAK COOL FRONT PASSING THROUGHT THE MIDSTATE TONIGHT, ETA/NGM
WERE LESS SPECIFIC ON THAT SUBJECT. AT ANY RATE, MOST MODELS SHOW
SOME DRYING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED IN LOW TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS DROPPING LOWS 7-11 DEGREES BASED ON SOME 
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE DRIER AIR. NOT SURE THAT WERE GOING TO 
GET THAT MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING SO I WENT HIGHER THAT MOS ON TUE
NGT LOWS. 

THE WEAK COOL FRONT TO THE SOUTH COMES BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AS A WARM FRONT IN PREPARATION FOR THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM 
APPROACHING THE AREA. THUS WED LOOKS LIKE A WET DAY BUT POPS NOT AS 
HIGH AS TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP QUITE A BIT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR WED NGT AND THU WITH THE AVN SHOWING 
30-35 KT AT THE SURFACE BY LATE THU. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THU NGT. A 2ND SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON THE HEELS
OF THE ONE ON THURSDAY AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HAVE TO 
WAIT UNTIL THIS WAVE PASSES SAT MORNING. 

WITH THE LOW CENTER JUST TO THE NORTH AND STRONG SFC WINDS OVER THE 
MIDSTATE ON THU, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THU PM AND THU 
NGT. HOWEVER, THIS IS STILL MORE THAT 72 HRS AWAY. 

COOLING TREND FOR SAT PM THROUGH SUN AS TEMPS GET BACK TO CLIMO 
NORMALS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MS AND
OHIO VALLEYS SUN/MON.

BNA WB 066/050 067/045 063 963
CSV WW 060/051 062/043 062 896  

&&

.BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JLM