AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1145 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND ALONG THE WI BORDER. ALSO THE IMPACTS OF EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. 15Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FROM NEBRASKA NORTHWARD TO THE DAKOTAS...AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN MN ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERAL ONGOING CONVECTION COMPLEXES ACROSS THIS REGION. DURING THE MORNING HOURS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT CIRRUS EXPANSION FROM THIS COMPLEXES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A BIT OF CONCERN DEVELOPING REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CIRRUS CLOUDCOVER DOES SEEM TO BE INHIBITING THE INSOLATION AND FELT CONFIDENT IN LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES WEST OF A LINE FROM KMQT TO KIMT. EAST OF THIS LINE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MORNING HAVE ALLOWED A RAPID WARMING OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THIS AREA AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT BEFORE INLAND TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE 85 F MARK. STILL EXPECTING COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE SHORES...BUT EVEN COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE EAST HAVE THEIR SHOT AT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST...HAD SOME CONCERN ON THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH MODIFIED NAM SOUNDINGS TO REPRESENT MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80 SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS...CAN STILL MANAGE A MODEST 700 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A BRIEF SHOWER REPORTED AT KASH LAST HOUR JUSTIFY LEAVING CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE WEST. NOT TO CONFIDENT ON ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDER BUT A RUMBLE OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY FROM KIWD TO KIMT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MROCZKA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 850 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2005 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT... SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND NOT CHANGING MUCH AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST YET. MODELS CONTINUE WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE IN OUR SOUTH WITH VORTICITY TO MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED POPS THERE. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY THE RUC. THIS LOOKS GOOD LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE LOOP. THIS MAKES MUCH CLEARING IN OUR SOUTH DELAYED UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE. THE CLEAR SKIES OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN THOUGH WILL EASILY SPREAD INTO OUR NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS VERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH GOOD DAYTIME DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE AREAS OF RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH A GOOD START TO A COOL NIGHT...8 PM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S...DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...POTENTIAL FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. THE COOL AIRMASS THAT BROUGHT UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR LOWS IN CANADA WILL BE OVER OUR AREA. MID TO UPPER 40S FOR LOWS ALSO REACHED NE MT LAST NIGHT. DOUBLE CENTERED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEPS WINDS LIGHT ALSO...AND MODELS ARE SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 10C OVER PARTS OF NE MT AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO 40S FOR LOWS ALL AREAS...LIKELY SOME AROUND 40 IN THE COLDEST SPOTS. HAVE LOWERED A FEW LOWS. SMALL UPDATES TO MOST PRODUCTS. SIMONSEN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COOL AND MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE FLOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN BC/ALBERTA THAT IS NOSING DOWN INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COOL FOR WHAT IS NORMALLY THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR. 850H TEMPS PROGGED TO AROUND +10C WITH 700H TEMPS BELOW 0C ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT BOTTOMED OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN SOUTHERN CANADA. IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING LATER TONIGHT COULD SEE SIMILAR LOWS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHICH WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING OUT. WIDESPREAD 40S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MAKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. THE RECORD LOW OF 38 DEGREE AT GLASGOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE IN JEOPARDY. COULD COME CLOSE UP TOWARD SCOBEY WHERE THE RECORD IS 36 DEGREES...BUT WILL NOT MENTION RECORD LOWS AS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THEM. AS OF 20Z STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FALLING ACROSS THE CWA THAT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. JUST ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT SOME LOW POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SHOULD START TO SEE THE SHOWERS FALL APART AFTER SUNSET...BUT POSSIBLE SOMETHING COULD LINGER THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FOUND JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH AND AN UPPER LOW WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHEAST MONTANA LOCKED IN A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DROPPING THE SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE THE SURFACE RIDGE DOWN INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATE IN THE DAY AND KEEPING ANY DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UP IN CANADA. DESPITE A COOL AIRMASS THE STRONG JULY SUN WILL WORK TO BRING TEMPERATURES WELL BACK INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE THE WIND TURN INTO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT. TUES NIGHT & WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY POP UP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AND ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST. DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A COOLER AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES QUICKER TO RECOVER...AND WITH WITH MORE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND WELL INTO THE 80S. CB .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVAILING FLAT RIDGE AND OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF ZONAL FLOW FOR MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER. ONLY WEATHER EXPECTED WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WEAK TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS REGION...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST WITH THIS FEATURE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...THEN BECOME EAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF PERIOD. SLIGHT COOLING AT END OF PERIOD DUE TO AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SATURDAY NIGHT TROUGH. ELSE...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ACCOMMODATE COORDINATION. && .AVIATION...SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END BY NIGHTFALL WITH CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FOG FORMATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES...BUT MODERATE WEST WINDS DURING DAY AS HEATING MIXES MID LEVEL WINDS TO SURFACE AND SPOTTY CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS. && CLIMO...AS OF 230 PM TODAY THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT THE AIRPORT IN GLASGOW HAS BEEN 66 DEGREES. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR TODAY IS 68 DEGREES...SET BACK IN 1936. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA WE DO HAVE A CHANCE OF BREAKING THE RECORD. THE ALL-TIME RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR THE MONTH OF JULY IS 67 DEGREES...SET A COUPLE OF TIME. CB .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 556 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2005 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED... QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE PRECIP CHANCES OVER AREAS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT...WHICH INCLUDES THE BILLINGS AREA. LOOKS LIKE A VERY WET AND COOL EVENING OVER MANY AREAS. FOISY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THOUGH SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IS LACKING DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE (CURRENT TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S)...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TS...AND WE ARE SEEING THAT NOW AS THERE ARE SOME GROUND STRIKES. A PERIOD OF STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE / MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WARRANT RAISING POPS EVEN FURTHER. RUC/NAM SHOW 700MB WINDS NOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. SO...HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL ALONG THE FAVORED NORTHEAST SLOPES THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM COLUMBUS TO BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN. FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH SHOULD SEE A GOOD WETTING RAIN TONIGHT...AND THIS IS VERY GOOD WITH REGARD TO THE ONGOING WILDFIRES IN THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND PV ANOMALY COMING THRU LATER ON WILL SUSTAIN ISOLD TO SCT POPS...BUT PCPN WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. WOULD NOT EVEN BE SURPRISED IF SOME SNOW FELL ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE BEARTOOTHS AND BIGHORNS LATE TONIGHT...AS 700MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR OR A BIT BELOW ZERO. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TUE MORNING...WITH RISING HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING...BUT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE AFTN. ALL MODELS SUGGESTING THIS NOW. TUE WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY (HOW COULD IT NOT BE?). 700MB COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THEN WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS...AND NAM/GFS SHOW H7 TEMPS RISING TO 3-4C BY 00Z. WITH INCRG SUN/MIXING...SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WED (80S) AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. LOW TEMPS A BIT TRICKY. MODEST RECORD LOWS WOULD BE IN SERIOUS DANGER TONIGHT IF NOT FOR THE PCPN/CLOUD COVER. EVEN SO IT WILL BE CLOSE. RECORD LOW OF 48F IN BILLINGS MAY BE CHALLENGED...WE'RE ONLY OFF BY 9 DEGREES AS OF 2PM. JKL .LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON... LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THURSDAY. THIS WILL RETURN THE AREA TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL SET UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH THIS FLOW AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. GOING EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES. RICHMOND && .AVIATION... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT IN MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AS WAVE OF RAIN PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST. KEPT SHOWERS ISOLATED IN NORTHEAST SECTIONS. RASCH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 050/076 053/085 060/093 061/094 061/093 062/089 060/090 81/B 00/U 00/U 02/T 22/T 22/T 00/B LVM 042/075 044/082 052/089 053/090 050/089 053/086 049/086 71/U 00/U 02/T 02/T 22/T 22/T 00/B HDN 050/078 053/088 058/095 060/096 061/096 059/093 058/091 81/B 00/U 00/U 02/T 22/T 22/T 00/B MLS 051/078 053/086 061/093 063/094 063/094 063/093 062/090 20/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 4BQ 052/075 052/084 060/092 061/094 061/094 061/091 060/089 32/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/T 22/T 00/B BHK 050/074 050/082 056/088 058/089 061/093 058/088 059/087 21/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B SHR 048/075 047/085 055/094 056/095 057/094 054/092 055/090 83/W 00/U 00/U 02/T 22/T 22/T 20/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 239 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2005 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED... SHOWERS AND TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THOUGH SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IS LACKING DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE (CURRENT TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S)...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TS...AND WE ARE SEEING THAT NOW AS THERE ARE SOME GROUND STRIKES. A PERIOD OF STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE / MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WARRANT RAISING POPS EVEN FURTHER. RUC/NAM SHOW 700MB WINDS NOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. SO...HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL ALONG THE FAVORED NORTHEAST SLOPES THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM COLUMBUS TO BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN. FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH SHOULD SEE A GOOD WETTING RAIN TONIGHT...AND THIS IS VERY GOOD WITH REGARD TO THE ONGOING WILDFIRES IN THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND PV ANOMALY COMING THRU LATER ON WILL SUSTAIN ISOLD TO SCT POPS...BUT PCPN WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. WOULD NOT EVEN BE SURPRISED IF SOME SNOW FELL ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE BEARTOOTHS AND BIGHORNS LATE TONIGHT...AS 700MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR OR A BIT BELOW ZERO. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TUE MORNING...WITH RISING HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING...BUT HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE AFTN. ALL MODELS SUGGESTING THIS NOW. TUE WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY (HOW COULD IT NOT BE?). 700MB COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THEN WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS...AND NAM/GFS SHOW H7 TEMPS RISING TO 3-4C BY 00Z. WITH INCRG SUN/MIXING...SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WED (80S) AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. LOW TEMPS A BIT TRICKY. MODEST RECORD LOWS WOULD BE IN SERIOUS DANGER TONIGHT IF NOT FOR THE PCPN/CLOUD COVER. EVEN SO IT WILL BE CLOSE. RECORD LOW OF 48F IN BILLINGS MAY BE CHALLENGED...WE'RE ONLY OFF BY 9 DEGREES AS OF 2PM. JKL .LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON... LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THURSDAY. THIS WILL RETURN THE AREA TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL SET UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH THIS FLOW AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. GOING EXTENDED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES. RICHMOND && .AVIATION... CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH IFR CONDITIONS NEAR STORMS. RICHMOND && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 050/076 053/085 060/093 061/094 061/093 062/089 060/090 61/B 00/U 00/U 02/T 22/T 22/T 00/B LVM 042/075 044/082 052/089 053/090 050/089 053/086 049/086 61/U 00/U 02/T 02/T 22/T 22/T 00/B HDN 050/078 053/088 058/095 060/096 061/096 059/093 058/091 41/B 00/U 00/U 02/T 22/T 22/T 00/B MLS 051/078 053/086 061/093 063/094 063/094 063/093 062/090 20/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 4BQ 052/075 052/084 060/092 061/094 061/094 061/091 060/089 32/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/T 22/T 00/B BHK 050/074 050/082 056/088 058/089 061/093 058/088 059/087 21/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B SHR 048/075 047/085 055/094 056/095 057/094 054/092 055/090 63/W 00/U 00/U 02/T 22/T 22/T 20/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 917 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2005 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY... 12Z RUN OF THE MODELS YESTERDAY ENDED UP DOING A DECENT JOB AT DEPICTING AN AREA OF POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THAT FELL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS ABLE TO MOISTEN UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTHWEST CANADA NOSING DOWN INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. STILL SOME SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON AREA RADARS. SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS SHOWING UP ACROSS HILL AND BLAINE COUNTIES ARE PUSHING INTO PHILLIPS COUNTIES. COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAYBE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOTHING TOO WIDESPREAD. STRONGER NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND THAT DEVELOPED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO 10 TO 15 MPH...STILL A BIT STRONGER AT GLENDIVE. WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CLOUDS/POPS/WIND...BUT OVERALL THINGS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. CB .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY THRU WEDNESDAY...AN INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT FROM THE NNW HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS NE MT OVERNIGHT...NOW THRU THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS HAS PROVED MOISTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. SURFACE WAVE HAS FLATTENED...BUT CONVECTION THAT FORMED ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT CONTINUES. INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THIS WELL. STRENGTHENING RADAR RETURNS AS A RESULT OF AIRMASS DESTABILIZING ALONG FRONT WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS ENOUGH TO HAVE FORMED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SINCE MIDNIGHT. MODELS ARE JUST FAIR IN DEPICTING THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MOVING IT OUR OF OUR EAST THIS MORNING. MOST MODELS ARE TOO QUICK...RUC IS MUCH SLOWER AND MOST REALISTIC. THE AIRMASS WAS VERY DRY...BUT IT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOISTENING UP MAINLY DUE TO LOW LEVEL COOLING AND PRECIP ALOFT. LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP AMOUNTS NOW JUST GETTING GOING REALLY. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING ENDING THE PRECIP. COOLER AND DRIER AIR BRINGING PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. RATHER TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS INDICATE LESSENING GRADIENTS SOON. LAKE WINDS NOT CHANGING MUCH YET AS OF 3 AM...REMAINING AROUND 20 MPH OR SO...THEREFORE WILL EXTEND LAKE WIND ADVISORY ANOTHER 3 HOURS. COOL ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH UPPER FLOW TURNING NW AND THICKNESS VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 550S DM BY AFTERNOON. STARTLINGLY COOL AIR NOTED IN THIS AIRMASS THIS MORNING IN CANADA...MOST OF SE AB AND SW SK ALREADY TO THE LOWER 40S F BY 3 AM...IN WHAT IS NORMALLY THE HOTTEST PART OF THE YEAR. HIGHS TODAY TO BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND WELL BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER NOW OVER ALBERTA TO MOVE DIRECTLY TO NE MT TONIGHT...AND MODELS INDICATING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A COOL NIGHT IN THE OFFING WITH MOST LOWS IN THE 40S. UPPER FLOW REMAINING NW WITH WEAK TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. LITTLE EFFECT INDICATED BY MODELS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LIFT OR SHORTWAVES...SO WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THICKNESS VALUES BEGIN TO RECOVER SLOWLY FOR A LITTLE WARMER WEATHER EACH DAY...NOT YET BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS THOUGH. SIMONSEN .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... ECMWF AND DGEX ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK AND KEEPING THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ECMWF AND DGEX HAVE HAD BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAT THE GFS. TONIGHT'S GFS HAS SIMILAR RIDGE TONIGHT MINUS FRIDAY'S UPPER TROUGH THAT IT ADVERTISED LAST NIGHT. THE GFS NOW HAS AN UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES OVER THE WEEKEND THAT IT DID NOT HAVE IN EARLIER RUNS. WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND CLOSER TO DGEX AND ECMWF FOR NOW. FORRESTER && .AVIATION...AREA OF SHOWERS ENDING OVER EASTERN ZONES WITH LINGERING LOW CEILING. CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW SURFACE HEATING THAT WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP ACROSS REMAINDER OF AREA FOR REST OF THE DAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND MAY BE GUSTY NEAR SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE MODERATE. && CLIMO...SO FAR THIS MONTH ONLY 27 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT THE AIRPORT IN GLASGOW. IT IS HAS BEEN THE DRIEST JULY MONTH TO DATE SINCE 1994. CB && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 835 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CLEARING TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES. CONCERNING CURRENT FLOOD HEADLINES...HEAVY RAIN PROMPTING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OCCURRED OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREA AND BASED ON TIME OF OCCURRENCE THERE SHOULD HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT TIME FOR RUNOFF SO WILL ALLOW HEADLINES TO EXPIRE. FOR REMAINDER OF NIGHT CLEARING EXPANDING SE AROUND 20KTS AND RUC HANDLING RH FIELDS WELL CLEARING CLOUDS FROM FA AFT 06Z AND WILL TIME ACCORDINGLY. PCPN HAS ALSO CLEARED FA SO WILL TAKE OUT ANY ADDITIONAL MENTION. WITH CLEARING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S CURRENT FORECASTS TRENDS SEEM REASONABLE. WITH HIGH CENTER STILL TO OUR WEST SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT ANY BIG DROPS OR SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHERN AREAS HAD MOST PCPN HOWEVER WINDS AND CLOUDS TO HOLD UP LONGEST THIS AREA BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. ONLY MINOR CHANGES PLANNED TO ONGOING FORECAST. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS UNTIL 10PM FOR SARGENT AND RICHLAND. MN...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS UNTIL 10PM FOR WILKIN...OTTERTAIL AND GRANT. && $$ VOELKER nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1028 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... LAST UPDATE FOR THE EVENING! WILL JUST RAISE MINS A BIT FOR FIRST PERIOD...AND BROADBRUSH POPS A BIT MORE FOR THE DAYLIGHT HRS ON TUESDAY. 13KM RUC FROM FSL BRINGS THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY DRIVING THE SHRA/TSRA CURR OVER IN/OH RIGHT OVERHEAD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. SHOULD BE A HOT ONE TMRW...IF THERE ISN/T TOO MUCH CLD DEBRIS OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP CURR MAXES GOING...AND CONTINUE THE SPS FOR THE HEAT/HUMIDITY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 845 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... WW 683 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SC PA...AS ALL THE ACTIVITY IS OFF TO OUR SOUTH. WILL ALSO USE THIS UPDATE TO REFINE OVERNIGHT POPS SLIGHTLY...BUT LEAVE SLIGHT CHCS IN FAR WEST FOR 09-12Z PERIOD...AS STUFF OV NRN INDIANA THAT IS BEING FIRED UP BY PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE ALOFT COULD REACH INTO THE AREA BY THEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 753 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... NASTY BOW ECHO LOST LOTS OF IT/S PUNCH AS IT TRIED TO CLIMB THE MTS INTO SOMERSET CO. LOTS OF GUSTY WIND REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS...BUT NO SVR WIND GUSTS OR DAMAGE TO SPEAK OF. SPC HOLDING ONTO WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING FOR BEDFORD/FULTON/FRANKLIN...BUT CHOPPING SOMERSET OUT. DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH RE-DEVELOP AS EVEN THE CU THAT WERE IN THE SC MTS AND LOWER SUSQ HAVE DISAPPEARED AT THIS LATE HOUR AND WITH CI SHIELD MOVG OVERHEAD. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE SIG POPS AND SVR WORDING FROM SOMERSET CO AND ANTICIPATE THAT WE WILL DO THE SAME FOR THE REST OF THE COS IN THE WATCH SOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 600 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... WILL UPDATE FCST TEXT AND GRIDS FOR SVR BOX 683 THAT WILL COME OUT IN SECONDS (FOR SWRN/SC 4 ZNS SOMERSET TO FRANKLIN). INSTABILITY STILL GOOD IN EXTREME SWRN CWA...AND BOW ECHO IS LONG-LIVED. SVR THREAT SHOULD NOT EXTEND PAST CHAMBERSBURG/WAYNESBORO...AS THE GOOD MOISTURE IS TO THE SOUTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 327 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... TNT...CURRENT MCS/BOW ECHO OVER OH SHOULD MAKE THE DIVE TO THE SE EARLY THIS EVE...POSSIBLY CLIPPING PORTIONS OF SOMERSET CO WITH SHOWERS/OUTFLOW. WL NEED TO WATCH...ALTHOUGH PROPENSITY SHOULD BE TO STAY FURTHER TO THE SW...CLOSER TO MAX INSTABILITY...AND ALONG OR JUST SW OF WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO SURGE BACK TO THE NE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH DEVELOPING WSW LLJ OF 40+ KT REDEVELOPING OVER OH...EXPECT ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO REFIRE ALONG RETREATING BOUNDARY AFTER 07Z...WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS FAR NW AREAS CLOSER TO 10Z-12Z. AS SUCH...INDICATED SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATE. SOME INDICATIONS THAT ANY POTENTIAL MCS THAT DEVELOPS MAY TRACK A BIT FURTHER N AND E...AND ALSO LATER THAN LAST NIGHT/S...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACK INTO A MORE W/SW COMPONENT...AS OPPOSED TO THE NNW UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM LAST NIGHT. FURTHER E...KEPT OUT MENTION OF POPS. AS FOR MINS...WENT CLOSE TO MAV MOS. TUE...KEPT IN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS N/W AREAS THROUGH NOON...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO LIFT BACK N AND E. GUSTY WSW WINDS IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY WILL THEN ADVECT VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA FOR TUE AFTN. AS FOR AFTN POPS...KEPT A PERIOD OF DRY WX FOR THE EARLY/MID AFTN HOURS...THEN REINTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE N/W TOWARD EVENING. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MUCH OF CWA WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE AFTN HOURS...WITH BEST CHC FOR ANY CONVECTION IN THE AM HOURS WITH WARM FRONT. AS FOR HEAT INDICES...THEY MAY REACH 100-105 ACROSS SE AREAS...AND WL ADDRESS IN AN SPS. LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS FOR HEAT INDICES >=105 F...FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE DAYS (WITH MOST AREAS NOT HAVING REACHED THE 105 TODAY...) AND THUS WL NOT RAISE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS FOR HEAT INDICES GTE 115 F...AND THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF REACH. AS FOR RECORDS...CURRENT FORECAST NUMBERS FALL JUST SHORT...SEE CLIMO DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS. TUE NT...INCREASING CHC FOR TRW ACROSS NW AREAS...BUT 09Z/25 SREFS HINTING THAT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SE OVERNIGHT. THUS...KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS FAR SE. WED-WED NT...FRONT SLOWS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS GRT LAKES. THUS...EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL PA WED...AND EVEN INTO WED NT. BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. AS FOR MAX TEMPS ON WED...WENT A BIT ABOVE MOST MOS VALUES ACROSS FAR SE...YIELDING MORE 90F+ TEMPS. COOLER TO THE N/W...WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP MAXES MAINLY IN THE 70S AND 80S. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... THU-FRI...00Z/25 MREFS HINTING AT SLOWER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT...WITH SEVERAL WAVES POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY AS IT SINKS TOWARD OR JUST S OF MASON-DIXON LINE. AT THIS TIME...WL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO HPC GUIDANCE...AND KEEP CHC POPS ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THU...WITH HIGHEST POPS TO THE S/E. ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WL TRY TO INDICATE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE AM HOURS ON THU. FOR THU NT-FRI...WL KEEP CHC POPS FOR THU NT...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC ACROSS FAR S/SE FOR FRI AM. FOR NORTHERN AREAS...WL KEEP OUT MENTION OF POPS FOR FRI. AS FOR TEMPS...AGAIN WL FOLLOW CLOSE TO...OR PERHAPS JUST A BIT ABOVE HPC NUMBERS FOR MAXES. SAT-SUN NT...SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR...AND LESS HUMID WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF N/W...TO LOWER-MID 80S ACROSS FAR S/E. AS FOR MINS...WITH PWATS PROGGED TO FALL TO -1 TO -2 SD RANGE....COULD SEE SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NW AREAS...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS FAR SE FOR SAT AND SUN AM. MON...SOME MREF MEMBERS ALLOW MOISTURE TO CREEP NORTHWARD ALONG APPALACHIANS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER MS VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...WL KEEP POPS OUT...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT CHC TO SW AREAS IF MORE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT. AVIATION... ATMOSPHERE STILL RECOVERING FROM MCS EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS NOW VFR WHILE SOME MVFR VSBYS CONTINUE IN HAZE...BUT THESE WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY STILL LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...BUT BEST CAPE/LEAST CAP REMAINS TO OUR WEST. SO SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A TSTORM NEAR KJST/KAOO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TUE WILL BE DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS EASTWARD...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TUE INTO WED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY GUSTY WINDS IN TSTORMS. CLIMATE... REC HIGHS FOR TUE 7/26... KMDT...100/1966 KIPT...98/1934 && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DANGELO pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 121 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES ALONG LINGERING BOUNDARY WHICH IS BEGINNING TO FOCUS A COUPLE OF TSTORMS ALONG OT IN WESTERN PA. NO OTHER CHANGES. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1132 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. ALSO SLIGHTLY TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS...BUT MINOR CHANGES. STILL QUITE WARM AND HUMID THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... BEAUTIFUL MCS FIRED UP JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT OVER SRN ONTARIO AS A WESTERLY LLJ OF 40KT FED DEWPOINTS NEAR 80F INTO A WEAK SFC TROF/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPEED RAPIDLY SSE HUGGING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY RIBBON. ETA12 AND RUC BOTH SHOW THE LLJ VEERING RAPIDLY TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP ALREADY LOOKS TO BE STARTING TO MELT AWAY. ALSO SIGNS THAT THE STORMS ARE TRYING TO OUTRUN THE BEST INSTABILITY AS THE GUST FRONT IS STARTING TO SURGE SEWRD AS SEEN IN THE SFC WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW OVER MUCH OF CTRL PA. RUC MIGRATES SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY EASTWARD WITH THE MCS OVERNIGHT BUT STILL FEEL THE CHC OF SVR WILL BE LIMITED AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION SEEMS DESTINED TO REMAIN ELEVATED...MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. THE DAYTIME SEES ACTIVITY WIND DOWN EARLY LEAVING CLEARING SKIES AND A HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. DRIER AIR MIXING IN ON THE INCREASING NWLY FLOW GIVES THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC SYSTEM THE FEEL OF A COLD FRONT DESPITE TEMPS THAT WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AND 90S. WITH MID LEVELS TEMPS 10-12C...HAVE LOWERED EXPECTATIONS OF CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON...SHUD BE RATHER SUNNY AND HOT. ANY CHC OF PRECIP IN THE 12 HOUR PERIOD WILL BE EARLY MORNING LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM OUR CURRENT MCS. HOT WEATHER LASTS INTO TUESDAY. NEW ENSEMBLE MOS HAS SLGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY BUT FEEL THAT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND LATE OVER THE NW AS THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARS. THINK THAT MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE TYPICAL WARM SECTOR WEATHER...HOT AND HUMID WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WED ONWARD SHUD SEE TREND TWD COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. POSSIBLE COMPLICATION HAS BEEN TOSSED IN BY THE NEW GFS SHOWING A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT FORMING FOR THU KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIP OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE REGION THUR THE DAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE YET TO REALLY STUDY THE NEW MREF GUID...BUT FIRST GLANCES SEEM TO SHOW THE FRONT NOT HANGING UP AS MUCH AS THE OP GFS SHOWS. AT THIS STAGE WILL DEFER ANY TINKERING WITH THAT PART OF THE FCST AND LEAVE CHANGES...IF THEY ARE NEEDED...TO THE DAY SHIFT. LA CORTE LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... WED ONWARD SHUD SEE TREND TWD COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. POSSIBLE COMPLICATION HAS BEEN TOSSED IN BY THE NEW GFS SHOWING A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT FORMING FOR THU KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIP OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE REGION THUR THE DAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE YET TO REALLY STUDY THE NEW MREF GUID...BUT FIRST GLANCES SEEM TO SHOW THE FRONT NOT HANGING UP AS MUCH AS THE OP GFS SHOWS. AT THIS STAGE WILL DEFER ANY TINKERING WITH THAT PART OF THE FCST AND LEAVE CHANGES...IF THEY ARE NEEDED...TO THE DAY SHIFT. LA CORTE AVIATION... CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS DROPPING SE AT 40 MPH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND NEAR STORMS. SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION...THEN VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING..AS WINDS SHIFT BEHIND MCS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR A SHORT TIME. MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WIND SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL FROM THE EAST IN SPOTS LIKE IPT. MARTIN && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RXR pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1132 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. ALSO SLIGHTLY TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS...BUT MINOR CHANGES. STILL QUITE WARM AND HUMID THIS AFTERNOON. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... BEAUTIFUL MCS FIRED UP JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT OVER SRN ONTARIO AS A WESTERLY LLJ OF 40KT FED DEWPOINTS NEAR 80F INTO A WEAK SFC TROF/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPEED RAPIDLY SSE HUGGING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY RIBBON. ETA12 AND RUC BOTH SHOW THE LLJ VEERING RAPIDLY TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP ALREADY LOOKS TO BE STARTING TO MELT AWAY. ALSO SIGNS THAT THE STORMS ARE TRYING TO OUTRUN THE BEST INSTABILITY AS THE GUST FRONT IS STARTING TO SURGE SEWRD AS SEEN IN THE SFC WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW OVER MUCH OF CTRL PA. RUC MIGRATES SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY EASTWARD WITH THE MCS OVERNIGHT BUT STILL FEEL THE CHC OF SVR WILL BE LIMITED AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION SEEMS DESTINED TO REMAIN ELEVATED...MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. THE DAYTIME SEES ACTIVITY WIND DOWN EARLY LEAVING CLEARING SKIES AND A HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. DRIER AIR MIXING IN ON THE INCREASING NWLY FLOW GIVES THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC SYSTEM THE FEEL OF A COLD FRONT DESPITE TEMPS THAT WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AND 90S. WITH MID LEVELS TEMPS 10-12C...HAVE LOWERED EXPECTATIONS OF CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON...SHUD BE RATHER SUNNY AND HOT. ANY CHC OF PRECIP IN THE 12 HOUR PERIOD WILL BE EARLY MORNING LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM OUR CURRENT MCS. HOT WEATHER LASTS INTO TUESDAY. NEW ENSEMBLE MOS HAS SLGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY BUT FEEL THAT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND LATE OVER THE NW AS THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARS. THINK THAT MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE TYPICAL WARM SECTOR WEATHER...HOT AND HUMID WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WED ONWARD SHUD SEE TREND TWD COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. POSSIBLE COMPLICATION HAS BEEN TOSSED IN BY THE NEW GFS SHOWING A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT FORMING FOR THU KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIP OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE REGION THUR THE DAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE YET TO REALLY STUDY THE NEW MREF GUID...BUT FIRST GLANCES SEEM TO SHOW THE FRONT NOT HANGING UP AS MUCH AS THE OP GFS SHOWS. AT THIS STAGE WILL DEFER ANY TINKERING WITH THAT PART OF THE FCST AND LEAVE CHANGES...IF THEY ARE NEEDED...TO THE DAY SHIFT. LA CORTE LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... WED ONWARD SHUD SEE TREND TWD COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. POSSIBLE COMPLICATION HAS BEEN TOSSED IN BY THE NEW GFS SHOWING A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT FORMING FOR THU KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIP OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE REGION THUR THE DAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE YET TO REALLY STUDY THE NEW MREF GUID...BUT FIRST GLANCES SEEM TO SHOW THE FRONT NOT HANGING UP AS MUCH AS THE OP GFS SHOWS. AT THIS STAGE WILL DEFER ANY TINKERING WITH THAT PART OF THE FCST AND LEAVE CHANGES...IF THEY ARE NEEDED...TO THE DAY SHIFT. LA CORTE AVIATION... CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS DROPPING SE AT 40 MPH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND NEAR STORMS. SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION...THEN VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING..AS WINDS SHIFT BEHIND MCS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR A SHORT TIME. MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WIND SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL FROM THE EAST IN SPOTS LIKE IPT. MARTIN && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RXR pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1101 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... HAVE UPPED POPS TO CHC FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE AS WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE CWA. RUC MDL HAS QPFD SOME DVLPMNT ON THIS BNDRY LTR TDA WHILE THE MRNG RUN OF THE NAM DOES NOT...HOWEVER NAM ALSO DID NOT CATCH DVLPMNT OF TSRA OVR NRN IN. NOT CONFIDENT RIDGE WL BLD ENUF TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY AS PROJECTED...HENCE CHC NMBRS ONLY FOR NOW. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 230 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS IN NW PA WILL WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE RISK OF SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE DISTRICT LATE TUESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS PA WILL KEEP A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE FORCAST AREA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS HUMIDITY BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY A RISK OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN. AVIATION... VFR CONDS SOUTH OF MCS WHILE MARGINAL CIGS AND VSBY IN TRW FURTHER NORTH. SOME EXTENSION OF THUNDER WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD REACH PIT-AGC NEXT HOUR TO SO. FURTHER SOUTH QUESTIONABLE AS FRONT RUNS OUT OF GAS. WIND SHIFT TOWARD MID MORNING TO NW AND MID DAY FURTHEST SOUTH AS AT MGW WITH RISING CIGS AND VSBYS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15 pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 929 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPPER RIDGE OVER AREA WITH MOIST AIR MASS AT SURFACE. CONVECTION MOVING RAPIDLY S THROUGH WV AND W VA...BUT LOSING SOME STRENGTH ALONG W PORTION. WILL ADD CHANCE POPS N AND E MIDNIGHT TIL 4 AM...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG NC/SC BORDER. INCREASED CLOUD COVER N LATE. ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE WHERE POPS EXIT. MADE FEW CHANGES TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. UPDATED WIND FROM RUC...BUT TRIMMED SPEEDS PER OBSERVATIONS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 547 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATING TO ALLOW HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATRURES AND DEW POINTS PER OBSERVATIONS...SKY FROM SATELLITE...AND WIND FROM 18Z RUC. AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION IN WV DROPPING ALMOST DUE S. FOR NOW WILL INCREASE POP TO JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHACNE MENTION N TIER...INCREASING CLOUD COVER THERE AROUND MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 253 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... THE QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOW HOT WILL IT GET TOMORROW? MOS HAS BEEN RUNNING HIGH FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND THE VALUES WE ARE SEEING ON THE MAV...INCLUDING 104 AT GSP AND CLT...SEEM TOO HIGH. THE MET MOS HAS HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 100 FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A LOCAL THICKNESS SCHEME WE USE...AS WELL AS A LOCALLY DERIVED SET OF MOS NUMBERS ALSO POINT TO HIGHS AROUND OR A LITTLE ABOVE 100 OUTSIDE THE MTNS. WFO CAE MENTIONED IN THE INTER-OFFICE CHAT ROOM THAT THE WET SOIL MAY BE HELPING TO HOLD DOWN MAX TEMPS .AN EFFECT WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS PREVALENT AFTER ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY TDA. MIXING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER...I/M GOING WITH HIGH TEMPS OF 98 TO 99 FOR MOST MON-MTN LOCATIONS. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH OF 100 AT GSP WAS AUGUST 18TH 2000...AND IT WAS AUGUST 18TH OF 1999 THAT CLT LAST HIT 100. I/D RATHER NOT FORECAST SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN 5 OR MORE YEARS WITH MOS VALUES THAT SEEM SUSPICIOUS. DESPITE NOT GOING AS HOT AS THE MOS CONSENSUS...WE SHOULD BE WELL IN THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TOMORROW. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY WITH THE AFTN PACKAGE FOR TUE. THE MTNS AND THE NRN NC FOOTHILLS WL BE THE ONLY LOCATIONS NOT IN THE ADVISORY. WED DOESN/T LOOK MUCH BETTER...AND WITH AN INCREASING DONWSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT THAT MAX TEMPS WL BE QUITE CLOSE TO TUE. THEY MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WARMER IN A FEW SPOTS. AT LEAST DWPTS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEG COOLER...THOUGH WE WL LIKELY SEE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN ON WED. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND A MID LEVEL INVERSION SHOWING UP ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...PCPN CHANCES WL BE LOW THROUGH WED AFTN. THE NAM HAS A STRONG LLVL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER ERN TN WED EVENING. WHILE WIND SHEAR WON/T BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...THE RESULTANT LLVL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WED NGHT IN AT LEAST THE MTN ZONES. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WL KEEP LLVL CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA ON THU AND WITH INCREASING LAYER RH VALUES...EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE. THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WL BE COOLER ON THU. LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SUN. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR AND WEAK H5 TROF THE CUTS OFF TO OUR WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THIS LOOKS A LITTLE SUSPICIOUS. THEREFORE HAVE HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...ONLY ALLOWING THE MTNS TO DRY OUT SUN AND MON. TEMPS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS. AVIATION... FEW LATE AFTERNOON CU FROM VICINITY AND NORTHEAST TO GSP WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... ONLY CI EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR VALUES WITH ISOLATED IFR IN HAZE. VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY TO GENERALLY VFR BY 16Z. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ018-026-028-029 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY. NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ035>037-056-057-066>072-082 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY. SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ004>014-019 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAT sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 547 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATING TO ALLOW HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATRURES AND DEW POINTS PER OBSERVATIONS...SKY FROM SATELLITE...AND WIND FROM 18Z RUC. AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION IN WV DROPPING ALMOST DUE S. FOR NOW WILL INCREASE POP TO JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHACNE MENTION N TIER...INCREASING CLOUD COVER THERE AROUND MIDNIGHT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 253 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... THE QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOW HOT WILL IT GET TOMORROW? MOS HAS BEEN RUNNING HIGH FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND THE VALUES WE ARE SEEING ON THE MAV...INCLUDING 104 AT GSP AND CLT...SEEM TOO HIGH. THE MET MOS HAS HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 100 FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. A LOCAL THICKNESS SCHEME WE USE...AS WELL AS A LOCALLY DERIVED SET OF MOS NUMBERS ALSO POINT TO HIGHS AROUND OR A LITTLE ABOVE 100 OUTSIDE THE MTNS. WFO CAE MENTIONED IN THE INTER-OFFICE CHAT ROOM THAT THE WET SOIL MAY BE HELPING TO HOLD DOWN MAX TEMPS ..AN EFFECT WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS PREVALENT AFTER ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY TDA. MIXING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER...I/M GOING WITH HIGH TEMPS OF 98 TO 99 FOR MOST MON-MTN LOCATIONS. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH OF 100 AT GSP WAS AUGUST 18TH 2000...AND IT WAS AUGUST 18TH OF 1999 THAT CLT LAST HIT 100. I/D RATHER NOT FORECAST SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN 5 OR MORE YEARS WITH MOS VALUES THAT SEEM SUSPICIOUS. DESPITE NOT GOING AS HOT AS THE MOS CONSENSUS...WE SHOULD BE WELL IN THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TOMORROW. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY WITH THE AFTN PACKAGE FOR TUE. THE MTNS AND THE NRN NC FOOTHILLS WL BE THE ONLY LOCATIONS NOT IN THE ADVISORY. WED DOESN/T LOOK MUCH BETTER...AND WITH AN INCREASING DONWSLOPE FLOW...EXPECT THAT MAX TEMPS WL BE QUITE CLOSE TO TUE. THEY MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WARMER IN A FEW SPOTS. AT LEAST DWPTS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEG COOLER...THOUGH WE WL LIKELY SEE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN ON WED. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND A MID LEVEL INVERSION SHOWING UP ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...PCPN CHANCES WL BE LOW THROUGH WED AFTN. THE NAM HAS A STRONG LLVL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER ERN TN WED EVENING. WHILE WIND SHEAR WON/T BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...THE RESULTANT LLVL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WED NGHT IN AT LEAST THE MTN ZONES. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WL KEEP LLVL CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA ON THU AND WITH INCREASING LAYER RH VALUES...EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE. THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WL BE COOLER ON THU. LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SUN. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR AND WEAK H5 TROF THE CUTS OFF TO OUR WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THIS LOOKS A LITTLE SUSPICIOUS. THEREFORE HAVE HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...ONLY ALLOWING THE MTNS TO DRY OUT SUN AND MON. TEMPS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS. AVIATION... FEW LATE AFTERNOON CU FROM VICINITY AND NORTHEAST TO GSP WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... ONLY CI EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR VALUES WITH ISOLATED IFR IN HAZE. VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY TO GENERALLY VFR BY 16Z. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ018-026-028-029 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY. ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ018-026-028-029 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY. NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ035>037-056-057-066>072-082 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY. ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ037-057-066>072-082 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY. SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ004>014-019 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY. ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ004>014-019 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAT sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1125 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... HAVE JSUT ISSUED UPDATED FORECASTS FOR FASTER CLEARING AND TO REMOVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. WAVE CLOUDS AND VAD WINDS INDICATING WINDS ALREADY AROUND TO NORTHWEST ABOVE 3K FEET AND ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR ABOVE THAT LEVEL. AT THE SFC...TEMPS AND DWPTS ARE HIGHER TO THE NORTHWEST BUT FEEL SHOWER CHANCES ARE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY CONSIDERING THE DRY ADVECTION ABOVE 3K FEET. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 330 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005) SYNOPSIS... TROF (FOR LACK A BETTER TERM) TO MOVE ACRS THE FA TODAY. WK HI PRESS STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FA TONITE. CF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON TUE...THEN ACRS THE FA ON TUE NITE. MORE HI PRESS LOOKS TO START TO BUILD INTO THE FA ON WED. SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... 00-02Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE U70S-L90S TODAY WITH S-SW SFC WINDS AT 10G20 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE 80-90F TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND MESONET OBS. BEST LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA EARLY TODAY. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.5-1.8" TODAY. CAPES ACRS THE FA TO BE AOB 1000 J/KG. RUC SHOWS MOCLDY SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACRS THE FA THIS MORNING...AND SCT PCPN THIS AFTERNOON. 88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME SCT -SHRA ACRS THE FA ATTM. WK H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU TUE...THEN CAA FOR TUE NITE AND WED. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA ON TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY ON TUE NITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA ON TUE AFTERNOON/NITE AND INTO WED. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON WED AFTERNOON. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY AND ON TUE AFTERNOON/NITE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.75-1" TONITE...EARLY ON TUE...AND AGAIN ON WED...AND 1-2" ON TUE AFTERNOON/NITE. GFS CAPES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE BLW 400 J/KG FROM TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED. ENVIRONMENT ACRS THE FA THRU EARLY TONITE APPEARS TO BE HIGHLY SHEARED WITH WET-BULB ZERO HTS RANGING FROM AROUND 11.0 KFT EARLY TO AROUND 7.0 KFT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CLD COVER ACRS THE FA MAY END UP LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...BUT WITH RELATIVELY HI PW VALUES AND SOME AMT OF MID-LVL DRY AIR ACRS THE FA (EARLY AND LATER TODAY) ANY STORMS THAT DO END OF FORMING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR SOME POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND/OR +RA. HAVE GONE WITH SCT POPS ACRS THE FA FOR THE REST OF TODAY FOR ANY CONVECTION. LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF ANY TSRA TODAY PRECLUDES ME FROM INCLUDING ANY ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE AN OUTSIDE CHC AT SEEING SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ACRS THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN THE NEXT CHC FOR ANY CONVECTION STILL APPEARS TO BE BY LATER ON TUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY ON WED (ESPECIALLY ACRS SRN VT). OUR GOING POP STRUCTURE ACRS THESE PERIODS STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD ATTM WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE BASICALLY 85-90F ON TUE. LOADED IN THE LATEST MAV DEWPTS ACRS THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CFROPA ON TUE NITE/WED FOR THE CONTINUED INCLUSION OF PCPN ACRS THE FA ON WED NITE. WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY 4 AM. AVIATION... SCT SHRA THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. VFR CIGS AND VIS...WITH OVC040 TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH FRONT PASSES THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...AND VORT MAX THIS AFTERNOON COULD TRIGGER SCT TSRA APPROX 19-23Z TIME-FRAME. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REB vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 129 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 .SHORT TERM... PRETTY INTERESTING SITUATION UNFOLDING OVER OUR AREA...AND IT LOOKS LIKE OUR CWA MAY BE SQUARELY IN THE PATH FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. PROBLEMS ARE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...MORPHING INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS AND FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. OLD WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS PUSHED SOUTH TO I-80 THIS MORNING IN IOWA ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS/S. THIS BOUNDARY NOW RETURNING QUICKLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN NERN NEB. STILL A VERY JUICY/UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT BEING LIFTED OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS WILL ONLY MAGNIFY AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40-45KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING IN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING 120-140KT UPPER LEVEL JET. GFS/NAM/CANADIAN/WRF ALL INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE CWA...WITH PINPOINT LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT VERY DIFFICULT GIVEN INCREASING DYNAMICS AT PLAY AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS/ADVECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS EVENT WILL AFFECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT RIGHT NOW I CANNOT PLACE WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OF 3-5" RAINS IN A VERY NARROW BAND ACROSS CWA. THIS MOST LIKELY ABOUT 100NM NORTH OF SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH RIGHT NOW PLACES SERN MN...AND SWRN WI IN THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA...MAINLY A AUM-LSE- NECEDAH LINE...BUT GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT BAND OF 5"+ RAINS A TIER OR TWO NORTH. THIS IS TYPICAL WITH THE GFS/S INABILITY TO HANDLE DEEP CONVECTION AND GRID SCALE FEEDBACK LIFTING BOUNDARIES TOO FAR NORTH. PREFER AN NAM SOLUTION NOW...WITH A NWRD NUDGE DUE TO CURRENT BOUNDARY LOCATIONS. ELEVATED CONVECTION FIRING NOW TO OUR WEST IN NWRN IA AND THIS THE PRECURSOR TO WHAT SHOULD BE RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. CAP READILY EVIDENT TO THE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY WHICH ALLOWS UNINHIBITED FLOW OF VERY HIGH THETA-E AIR INTO BOUNDARY. SEVERE THREAT...THINK THERE IS DEFINITELY A SEVERE THREAT FOR CWA ALONG/IMMEDITATELY ON COOL SIDE OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT. MODEL FCST SHEAR SHOWS THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT AS LONG AS SFC/LOW LEVEL WIND FIED MAINTAINS SOME FORM OF ELY COMPONENT. THIS SEEMS TO FAVOR TIERS OF COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. WITH LCL HEIGHTS LOW...AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...SHEAR WILL BE THERE FOR TORNADO THREAT SHOULD ANY CELLS REMAIN DISCRETE AND HAVE RESIDENCE TIME ALONG BOUNDARY...GIVEN VERY/EXTREME CAPE TO THE SOUTH. EASTERLY 0-2KM STORM RELATIVE FLOW VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS MOVING EAST ALONG/NORTH OF FRONT. WATCHING THIS VERY CAREFULLY FOR THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS WITH SPC TOR RISK IN MIND /5%/. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN COMING WITH STORMS FIRING ALONG WARM FRONT...MOVING INTO CWA...THEN BACKBUILDING INTO THE DEVELOPING FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. PW VALUES PER NAM/GFS/RUC EXTREME...SOME 200-240% OF NORMAL WITH 2"-2.5" IN VCTY OF BOUNDARY THIS EVENING WHEN CONVECTION TAKES OFF. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEED 3.5KM...MORE THAN SIGNIFICANT...AND ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL JET TO WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW TRAINING/REGENERATIVE STORMS BEFORE APPROACHING SYNOPTIC WAVE TURNS WHOLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MODE. INTERFACE OF LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK CONFIRMS DEEP LAYER/SIGNIFICANT LIFT TO MOVE ACROSS CWA THIS EVENING...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SLOPED FRONTAL ZONE LYING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. VERY IMPRESSIVE EVENT. WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALIZED 6+ INCH RAINS IN THIS NARROW CORRIDOR NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY.../MORE ALONG H9-H8 CONVERGENCE MAXIMA/ IN ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS IS MAXIMIZED BETWEEN THE TWO DEVELOPING MCS/S. PLACING THIS DIFFICULT...BUT FEEL IT WILL RUN THROUGH CENTRAL CWA. GIVEN REPORTS NOW OUT OF COUNTIES HIT LAST NIGHT...THIS NOT NEEDED! FLOOD WATCH HOISTED EARLIER...AND WILL MAINTAIN EVENT TIMING AND CURRENT COUNTY LAYOUT. FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH POPS DECREASING RAPIDLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE MORNING. PLENTY OF STRATOCUMULUS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME TOMORROW WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS...SPELLS A MUCH COOLER DAY...AND DROPPED MAX TEMPS A BIT. CLOUDS CLEAR SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR AND VERY COOL NIGHT. A NICE COOL/SUNNY DAY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS...AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN. ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIVING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA...BUT HOLDING ON POPS FOR NOW EXCEPT FOR TAYLOR CO...AS I THINK MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE IN ADVANCE OF BOUNDARY. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A RATHER QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE/H85 RIDGES BRINGING THE WARMING BACK WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE. SATURDAY POPS RIGHT NOW LOOKING VERY SUSPECT...BUT GIVEN GOOD SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL HOLD WITH THEM NOW DESPITE NOT MUCH SUPPORT FROM OPERATIONAL RUNS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING INTO AREA BY LATE MONDAY COULD SPREAD THUNDER CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT WITH NOT MUCH GULF FLOW INTO FRONTAL ZONE...AND TIMING ISSUES...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S...AND PERHAPS SOME LOWER 90S BY END OF WEEKEND. BUT WILL STAY A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW. && .HYDROLOGY... LAST NIGHT'S DELUGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MN AND FAR NERN IA CERTAINLY PLAYING INTO DECISION FOR FLOOD WATCH. DESPITE RECENT DRYNESS...CAN'T IGNORE SIGNALS IN MODELS THAT HUGE RAINFALL RATES COULD FALL IN SMALL STREAM BASINS AND CAUSE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SEVERAL RIVERS ALREADY IN FLOOD...AND GIVEN IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR FLASH FLOODING...AM VERY CONCERNED FOR BASINS IN SERN MN...SWRN WI...AND NERN IA...WHICH HAVE ALL SEEN LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINS IN THE LAST 5 DAYS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM TUESDAY FOR WIZ032- WIZ033-WIZ034-WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-WIZ044-WIZ053-WIZ054- WIZ055-WIZ061. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM TUESDAY FOR MNZ079- MNZ086-MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM TUESDAY FOR IAZ008- IAZ009-IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030. && $$ BINAU wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 408 AM MDT TUE JUL 26 2005 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR DATA INDICATING BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY TRAVERSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ATTM. WATER VAPOR ALSO INDICATING AMPLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINOR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ATTM. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT IS BANKED UP ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CO...WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. TODAY...MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS THIS MORNING...TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND HAVE BEEFED UP MORNING POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TO MATCH. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SENDING ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH CURRENT KPUX VAD NORTHERLY SFC-H7 WIND PROFILE BECOMING MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING ADDITION CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW...HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS AND DIMINISHING AS THEY RUN INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WITH PWATS RUNNING AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND EASTERLY SFC-H7 FLOW...COULD SEE SOME TRAINING ECHOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS...THOUGH WITH DECENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT FLASH FLOODING ATTM...EXPECT FOR THE POOR SOILS AROUND THE MASON BURN SCAR AND WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONE 79 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUT WEST...MINOR DISTURBANCE TO HELP INITIATE -TSRA AND HAVE GONE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW...HAVE STUCK CLOSER TO COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT...NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...WITH DRIER AND SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN MTS AND RATON MESA REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION AND CLEARING SKIES...WILL SEE COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS...30S AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. -MW .LONG TERM... (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ...RETURN TO WARM AND DRIER WEATHER WED-SAT... ...POSSIBLY MORE WET WEATHER FOR SUN-MON... WED THROUGH SAT...LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND SRN CO/NRN NM. THIS WOULD PROMOTE WARMER TEMPS...RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER...AND MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLD SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND THE MTNS. SUN AND MON...STILL APPEARS WE MAY GET A LITTLE MORE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FRO THE SW-W WHICH WOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. [METZE] && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ079(MASON GULCH BURN SCAR). && $$ 23/17 co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005 .DISCUSSION...TODAY/TONIGHT...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY DRY DAY IN STORE FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. DRY/SURPRESSED AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE IN WAKE OF MONDAYS TROUGH PASSAGE. TROUGH HAS SETTLED TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND WHILE SURFACE REFLECTION HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED...MID LEVEL PRESENCE STILL APPARENT OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE DISCOUNTED RELATIVELY WET NAM GUIDANCE AND FOLLOWED CLOSEST TO GFS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.3-1.5 INCHES ACROSS MAJORITY OF CWA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEALING DRY COLUMN AND WARM MID LEVELS...WILL STAY WITH NIL POPS FOR ALL EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND SOUTH AREAS. GREATEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL INDICATE 20/30 POPS AROUND PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE. LATE DAY GULF/ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE COLLISION POSSIBLE WEST OF ORLANDO...AND WILL INDICATE 20 POP FOR EXTREME WESTERN CWA...ALONG KISSIMMEE RIVER BASIN LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO...BUT HEAT INDICES SHOULD ACTUALLY BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE INTERIOR AS VERTICAL MIXING ALLOWS DEWPOINTS TO FALL TOWARD 70 DEGREES DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL END BY EVENING AND WILL GO WITH DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MINS NEAR CLIMO. WED-THU...MOSITURE WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK INTO THE STATE AS A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROF PRESSES INTO THE SERN U.S. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING TROF AND THE PRESENCE OF T.S. FRANKLIN WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS SUPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW THE STEERING FLOW TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW...A PATTERN THAT FAVORS THE ERN PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL PRECIP... MUCH OF THE SOURCE REGION HAS RELATIVELY SPARSE LOW LVL OR DEEP LYR MOISTURE. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS H100-H70 MEAN RH AOB 70% AND H85-H50 MEAN RH AOB 60%. AS SUCH...CANNOT SEE WHERE THE ETA MOS GUIDANCE IS ABLE TO GENERATE 60-70 POPS THRU THE PD. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFS MOS NUMBERS FOR PRECIP...THOUGH BY THU THE PRECIP PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO SHOW THE S/SWRLY WIND SHIFT. ALSO OF NOTE...MAX/MIN HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARM AS THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN SUGGESTING OF LATE. THE PGRAD ACROSS THE REGION IS QUITE WEAK...AND WHILE IT MAY TIGHTEN AS THE FRONTAL TROF APPROACHES...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE LOW LVL SWRLY FLOW CAPABLE OF OVERPOWERING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. WILL GO CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR TEMPS. FRI-MON...THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STATE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CONTINENTAL RIDGE PRESSES DOWN OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SANDWICHES THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF. WHILE THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SRLY FLOW OVER THE STATE STILL...AS MENTIONED ABOVE... THE AIRMASS OVER THE CARIB/GOMEX IS SUPRISINGLY ON THE DRY SIDE WITH DLM MOISTURE VALUES GENERALLY RUNNING AOB 70%. MOISTURE ON FRI SHOULD SUPPORT 50% COVERAGE THANKS TO THE FRONTAL TROF. BEYOND FRI...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR DIURNAL PRECIP...WILL KEEP POPS BLO 50% INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETING THE GOMEX WILL PRECLUDE ANY SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. THRU WED...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WHAT THE SFC WINDS NORMALLY WOULD SUPPORT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE DIMINISHING SWELL FROM DISTANT TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW BY THU AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS DOWN INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. && .AVIATION...RARE MID SUMMER DRY/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF VRB...BUT LIKELY REMAINING W/SW OF AIRPORT. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON DAB/MLB/VRB...THEN PUSH STEADILY INLAND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 92 74 92 75 / 10 10 20 20 MCO 93 74 91 76 / 10 10 30 20 MLB 91 74 91 75 / 10 10 20 20 VRB 90 76 92 74 / 10 10 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPRATT LONG TERM....BRAGAW fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 403 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 .DISCUSSION... SGFNT BAROCLINIC ZONE WORKING THROUGH AREA TODAY. MOISTURE MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS ZONE WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. NOT SURE WE WILL REALIZE SGFNT AMOUNTS OF PCPN BUT CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN BLO SEASONAL LEVELS. HOURLY TEMPERATURES THUS A REAL SHOT IN THE DARK. LATEST NAM CONTINUES CLEARING TREND BY TNGT WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS IN SOME AREAS. SAME TMRW NIGHT. WELCOME COOLING IN STORE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT QUICK WARMUP IN STORE BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TWO UPPER WAVES IMPINGING ON BAROCLINIC ZONE PROVIDING NEEDED LIFT FOR PCPN. FIRST PER RUCII MOVING EAST SLOWLY ACROSS WRN KS. THIS LEADING WAVE PROVIDING BROAD PCPN SHIELD OVER MUCH OF NWRN PTN OF CWA NEARER BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS THIS ZONE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MRNG...A SECOND WAVE APPEARS WILL BE EMERGING FROM CO ROCKIES PROVIDING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN CNTRL AND SERN PTNS OF CWA BY LATE MRNG OR EARLY AFTN. BETTER LIFT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE OVERTAKES AREA AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK. JUST WHEN CLOUDS BREAK UP WILL DICTATE HOW COLD WE WILL GET TNGT. IF CLDS HOLD TOUGH TO MIDN OR LATER...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL NOT BE REALIZED. HOWEVER WITH CONTD SUBSIDENCE LATER TNGT AND WEDNESDAY, BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE, AND CLEAR SKIES...ODDS INCREASING FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD COOL READINGS TMRW NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED EARLY THURSDAY TEMPS A BIT WITH THIS SCENARIO EXPECTED. FAIRLY STG NWRLY FLOW THEN SETS UP LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF ENUF MOISTURE CAN BE PULLED BACK INTO AREA...COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WAA SHWRS/TSTMS. WILL HOLD OFF WITH THAT FOR NOW BUT MAY BEAR WATCHING IN LATER MODEL RUNS. .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 356 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO WITH A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW. ONE SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. SURFACE LOW IS OVER MENOMINEE AND IT IS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A RIDGE IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN ONTARIO LOW WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN JAMES BAY TODAY. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ENTERS INTO THE WESTERN U.P. THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. ETA/GFS INDICATE THAT DRY...COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST PLACING THE U.P. UNDER THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF THE JET MAX BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEAR SATURATED LAYER AROUND 500MB...BUT VERY DRY BELOW THIS LEVEL. THUS AC/CC WILL BE APPARENT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IN SPITE OF THE INSTABILITY ALOFT...A LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NEGATE ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON. THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH WEAK 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THE ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL SWING ACROSS THE U.P. TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AS THE RIDGE BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. THUS EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LITTLE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LAKE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. K INDEXES WILL BE AROUND 30 AND LIFTED INDEXES AROUND -3. THUS CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP OUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 245 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2005 .SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING EXCEPT IN INYO COUNTY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS WAS BEING AIDED BY A WEAK VORT MAX WHICH SHOWS UP WELL ON THE RUC MODEL. THIS VORT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 18Z...BUT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL GO WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY WITH THE GFS/NAM SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY WITH LI'S OF -3/-4 AND CAPE VALUES OF 750-1000 J/KG. THIS AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TODAY AND WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ONLY IN THIS AREA. EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO WEDNESDAY AND WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS. WITH THE DRYING...HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES 2-3 DEGREES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LEVELING OFF ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO RESIDE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE WEEKEND PER THE LATEST GFS. ALTHOUGH UKMO/ ECMWF TENDING TO HAVE RIDGE CENTER A BIT FURTHER EAST...OVERALL PATTERN IS SUCH THAT MOISTURE MOVING WEST AROUND BOTTOM OF HIGH TO MOVE BACK INTO THE CWA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FURTHER EAST POSITION OF HIGH WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR THIS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM GERT THEN LIKELY TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW AND INTO THE CWA. OROGRAPHICS AND ANY EASTERLY WAVE THEN TO ACT UPON MOISTURE TO KICK OFF THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LONG TERM. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED FOR NOW AND FINE TUNE ONCE WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT ON THURSDAY AS INCREASE MOISTURE DURING THE LONG TERM TO TEMPER HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH MOST READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION...TAF ADEQUATELY COVERS ALL EXPECTED WEATHER AT KLAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NV...NONE. .AZ...NONE. .CA...NONE. && $$ GORELOW/JENSEN nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 332 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005 .SYNOPSIS... CF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY...THEN ACRS THE FA TONITE AND SE OF THE FA ON WED. HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA ON WED NITE AND THU. WK UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA LATE ON WED AND INTO WED NITE. .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... 00-02Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE 80S-L90S TODAY WITH S-SW SFC WINDS AT 5-10G25 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE U80S-L90S TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND MESONET OBS. LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA LATE TODAY. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.6-2+" TODAY. CAPES ACRS THE FA TO BE AOB 2000 J/KG TODAY. RUC SHOWS PTSUNNY SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH PCPN MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE FA BY LATER TODAY. H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND ON THU...WITH CAA TONITE THRU WED NITE. LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WED NITE AND LATER ON THU. LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TONITE AND FOR MUCH OF WED. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON THIS AFTERNOON AND ON THU AFTERNOON. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA LATER TODAY AND TONITE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 1-1.5" TONITE AND 0.5-1" ON WED. NAM CAPES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE BLW 600 J/KG TONITE AND ON WED. ENVIRONMENT ACRS THE FA THRU EARLY TONITE APPEARS TO BE HIGHLY SHEARED WITH WET-BULB ZERO HTS OF 11-13.5 KFT. WITH HI PW VALUES/INSTABILITY AND SOME AVAILABLE MID-LVL DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE CF...+RA AND STRONG WIND GUSTS DEFINITELY LOOK POSSIBLE ACRS THE FA BY LATER TODAY AND INTO TONITE. HAIL LOOKS MUCH MORE IFFY THOUGH WITH SUCH HI WET-BULB ZERO HTS. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY LEND FOR SOME BOWING STRUCTURES AS WELL. WILL PLAN ON ISSUING AN SPS TO HIGHLITE THE SVR WX POTNL ACRS THE FA LATER TODAY AND INTO TONITE. IR SAT PIX SHOW SOME MID AND HIR-LVL CLDS MOVING ACRS THE FA FROM THE NW ATTM. CONVECTION EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATER TODAY AND INTO TONITE. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM LOWEST (SCHC) ACRS SE VT TO HIGHEST (LIKELY) ACRS THE ST LAW VLY TODAY. THE GOING LIKELY POPS FOR TONITE CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD ATTM. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH ALY... WILL HANG ONTO CHC POPS ACRS THE FA ON WED AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE SRN VT STANDS TO SEE THE BEST CHC AT SEEING SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT CLD COVER AND PCPN THEN. T1MAX TEMPS ARE BASICALLY IN THE 70S ON WED. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE M-U60S TONITE AND 45-50F ON WED NITE. LOADED IN THE LATEST MAV DEWPTS ACRS THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW. PRELIM WRK ZONES AND ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY AROUND 4 AM. .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ACRS FA THIS THIS MORNING FOR KBTV AND KMSS...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR KSLK AND KMPV. SHOWERS IN THE AREA YESTERDAY PROVIDED ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS OF KMPV AND KSLK. CONDITIONS IMPRVG TO VFR AFT 12Z. CIGS TO LOWER DURING DAY...WITH BKN040 ALL SITES BY 18Z. CHC TSRA AFT 20Z AT KMSS...TO 23Z AT KMPV. TSRA CHCS ENDING WEST TO EAST AFT 00Z. .HYDROLOGY... LATEST NERFC FFG IS ABOVE 2"...SO ANY LOCALLY +RA SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM ACRS THE FA TODAY AND INTO TONITE. .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...MURRAY AVIATION...HANSON vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1030 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 .DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER VERMILION PARISH AMID WEAKNESS BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE SE CONUS AND SE TX. DIFFICULT TO SAY FOR SURE...BUT THERE DO APPEAR TO BE A COUPLE OF SUBTLE VORT MAXES LIFTING NW THROUGH SE LA PER WV IMAGERY...WHICH MAY ALSO BE CONTRIBUTING. MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THIS CONVECTION EXCEPTIONALLY WELL IN QPF FIELDS...ESP THE RUC/ETA...AND GENERALLY SHOW IT REMAINING IN PLACE WITH A SLGT CHANCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY...WITH REST OF FORECAST LOOKING GOOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005) DISCUSSION... ANOTHER HOT AND STEAMY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 104-108 RANGE BY NOON INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WED AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER...BUT STILL HOT AND STEAMY. A BIT OF A CHANGE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...INCREASING SHRA/TSRA BY LATE WED...AND ESPECIALLY THU INTO EARLY FRI. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD DOWN AFTERNOON TEMPS THU & FRI. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY WASH OUT BY THE WEEKEND ..BUT DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION TO BUMP DOWN NIGHTTIME LOWS TO RESPECTABLE LEVELS. HOWEVER ..AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GULF AIR WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD AGAIN...BRINGING BACK HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DML MARINE... GRADIENT PICKED UP A BIT EARLY THIS MORNING FROM CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON ZONES. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. BEING THAT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND DISSIPATE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS WEEKEND. DML AVIATION... TEMPO BR TO REDUCE VSBY AT AEX TO 2SM THIS MORNING...5SM AT BPT... LCH...LFT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH VCTS AT ALL SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 13 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 923 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005 ...HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THE NEXT FEW DAYS... .UPDATE /TODAY/...MORNING RUC THICKNESSES INDICATE MAX TEMPS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WITH A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A WEAK LATE AFTN SEABREEZE. MORNING DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW...MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNIFICANT WLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1200 FT WILL RELAX SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS...MOISTURE WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE WEAK LEE TROF EXPECTED...SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST SEABREEZE PUSH ACROSS THE NRN SECTIONS...MAINLY COASTAL SC. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB RAPIDLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN THE WEAK SEABREEZE... DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR INLAND IT PUSHES...WILL RESULT IN A SURGE IN LLVL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES WILL OCCUR MID-LATE AFTERNOON FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN A THIN FRINGE JUST INLAND. THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET...AS I DO NOT SEE MORE THAN ONE OR TWO SITES HITTING 115 TODAY. ATMOSPHERE IS SO INCREDIBLY WARM THROUGHOUT THAT RAIN SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE TODAY. && .MARINE...HIGH PRES S OF THE WATERS TODAY WILL REMAIN S THRU SAT...WITH THE MEAN ATLC RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP ACROSS THE FL PEN OR EVEN THE STRAITS OF FL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME A WELL DEFINED TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES...AND WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU SAT. OUTSIDE OF RESULTANT SEA BREEZE EFFECTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE...WE ARE LOOKING AT A MOSTLY SWLY FLOW THIS FCST PERIOD. WINDS TO REMAIN AT 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 3 OR 4 FT...EVEN IF WE GET SOME SMALL SWELLS COMING IN FROM TS FRANKLIN WHICH REMAINS OVER THE ATLC NOT FAR FROM BERMUDA. && .AVIATION...OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HAZE OR LGT FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS FCST. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF IFR VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT LOW PROBABILITY SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED. SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...PASSING BOTH SITES AROUND 20Z. BUT LIGHT WINDS OVERALL. NO CONVECTION. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM TODAY. EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM WED. GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM TODAY. EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM WED. MARINE...NONE. && $$ JRL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 945 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 .DISCUSSION... GPS MET PW'S ARE RATHER MEAGER ACROSS SE TX. ACARS IAH SOUNDING IS ALSO CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN EITHER CRP OR LCH. BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS OVER LOUISIANA. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE KEEPS THE AREA DRIER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR THE CWA EXCEPT CHAMBERS AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43 PREVIOUS: UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF GERT CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER RIDGE OVER REGION WILL RETREAT EAST AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MID SECTION OF CONUS. TAIL END OF TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SAG FARTHER SOUTH TO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THIS...GFS AND NAM DIFFER ON SOLUTIONS. CONSIDERING THIS IS THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER...WE STAYED CLOSE TO NAM SOLUTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...POSSIBLY PUSHING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY...AND THEN RETREATING NORTH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. PW VALUES INCREASING TO ABOUT 2.2 INCHES VICINITY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THIS PERIOD. DO NOT SEE ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH FRONT. WE SHALL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTHERN ZONES EXPANDING AREAWIDE THURSDAY. WE WENT LOWER THAN MOS NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY TEMPS CONSIDERING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS. THE COMING WEEKEND LOOKS DRY. GFS INDICATE DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW DURING WEEKEND WITH CONSEQUENT LOWERING OF PW VALUES. HOWEVER...GFS ALSO INDICATE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING AND BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE COMING WEEKEND. WE SHALL SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS. 37 && .MARINE... A COUPLE QUIET DAYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY IN A 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE WILL DIMINISH TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THESE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS COULD END UP BEING HIGHER IN AND NEAR POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. 42 && .AVIATION... NO REAL FLYING CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 97 75 94 73 91 / 10 10 30 40 40 HOUSTON (IAH) 96 75 94 74 92 / 10 10 20 30 40 GALVESTON (GLS) 91 81 90 80 90 / 10 10 10 20 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TX...NONE. .GM...NONE. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1137 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... HAVE DECIDED NOT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TNGT. LEADING CNVTV COMPLEX IS WKNG QUICKLY AS IT HEADS INTO THE AT LAWRENCE VLY AT THIS TIME. DON'T EXPECT REGENERATION OF THIS COMPLEX SINCE SFC DWPTS ARE STILL A LITTLE LOW AND SFC TEMPS ARE BEING HELD DOWN BY THE DEBRIS CLOUDS. OVERALL...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE NEW CNVTN WILL ORGANIZE AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT FROM SERN MI THRU SRN ONTARIO TO THE NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DURING THE AFTN HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD EWRD INTO OUR FCST AREA BY EVENING AND ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONCERNING THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RE-ISSUED AROUND NOON AND MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS OCCURING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 332 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005) SYNOPSIS... CF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY...THEN ACRS THE FA TONITE AND SE OF THE FA ON WED. HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA ON WED NITE AND THU. WK UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA LATE ON WED AND INTO WED NITE. SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... 00-02Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE 80S-L90S TODAY WITH S-SW SFC WINDS AT 5-10G25 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE U80S-L90S TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND MESONET OBS. LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA LATE TODAY. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.6-2+" TODAY. CAPES ACRS THE FA TO BE AOB 2000 J/KG TODAY. RUC SHOWS PTSUNNY SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH PCPN MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE FA BY LATER TODAY. H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND ON THU...WITH CAA TONITE THRU WED NITE. LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WED NITE AND LATER ON THU. LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TONITE AND FOR MUCH OF WED. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON THIS AFTERNOON AND ON THU AFTERNOON. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA LATER TODAY AND TONITE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 1-1.5" TONITE AND 0.5-1" ON WED. NAM CAPES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE BLW 600 J/KG TONITE AND ON WED. ENVIRONMENT ACRS THE FA THRU EARLY TONITE APPEARS TO BE HIGHLY SHEARED WITH WET-BULB ZERO HTS OF 11-13.5 KFT. WITH HI PW VALUES/INSTABILITY AND SOME AVAILABLE MID-LVL DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE CF...+RA AND STRONG WIND GUSTS DEFINITELY LOOK POSSIBLE ACRS THE FA BY LATER TODAY AND INTO TONITE. HAIL LOOKS MUCH MORE IFFY THOUGH WITH SUCH HI WET-BULB ZERO HTS. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY LEND FOR SOME BOWING STRUCTURES AS WELL. WILL PLAN ON ISSUING AN SPS TO HIGHLITE THE SVR WX POTNL ACRS THE FA LATER TODAY AND INTO TONITE. IR SAT PIX SHOW SOME MID AND HIR-LVL CLDS MOVING ACRS THE FA FROM THE NW ATTM. CONVECTION EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF THE FA BY LATER TODAY AND INTO TONITE. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM LOWEST (SCHC) ACRS SE VT TO HIGHEST (LIKELY) ACRS THE ST LAW VLY TODAY. THE GOING LIKELY POPS FOR TONITE CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD ATTM. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH ALY... WILL HANG ONTO CHC POPS ACRS THE FA ON WED AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE SRN VT STANDS TO SEE THE BEST CHC AT SEEING SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT CLD COVER AND PCPN THEN. T1MAX TEMPS ARE BASICALLY IN THE 70S ON WED. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE M-U60S TONITE AND 45-50F ON WED NITE. LOADED IN THE LATEST MAV DEWPTS ACRS THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW. PRELIM WRK ZONES AND ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY AROUND 4 AM. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ACRS FA THIS THIS MORNING FOR KBTV AND KMSS...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR KSLK AND KMPV. SHOWERS IN THE AREA YESTERDAY PROVIDED ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS OF KMPV AND KSLK. CONDITIONS IMPRVG TO VFR AFT 12Z. CIGS TO LOWER DURING DAY...WITH BKN040 ALL SITES BY 18Z. CHC TSRA AFT 20Z AT KMSS...TO 23Z AT KMPV. TSRA CHCS ENDING WEST TO EAST AFT 00Z. HYDROLOGY... LATEST NERFC FFG IS ABOVE 2"...SO ANY LOCALLY +RA SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM ACRS THE FA TODAY AND INTO TONITE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REB vt