FXUS64 KMRX 160943 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 440 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2003 THE FOLLOWING ARE THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS... WITH THE MOST RECENT FIRST. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. ********************************************************************* EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION 440 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2003 SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE ABOUT SAME AS YESTERDAY...HOW HIGH POPS SHOULD BE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO...WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING EASTWARD FROM MIDDLE TN. THE RAIN IS COVERING THE WRN MOST PARTS OF MY FORECAST AREA ALREADY...SO CAME UP WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/WEAK ISENTROPIC PATTERN HOLDS...BUT I DID NOTE LESS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAN YESTERDAY. THINKING WAS TO SHIFT LIKELY POPS TO EASTERN MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER POPS TO CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE LATE TONIGHT. REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM GRIDS AND TODAY'S TEXT PRODUCTS...SINCE AIRMASS WILL BE STABLE AND NO STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS. STRATIFORM RAINS MAINLY SO CHANGED PCPN TYPE FROM SHOWERS TO LIGHT RAIN...FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURE WISE...COOLER MAV MOS WAS A CLEAR WINNER FOR SATURDAY MAX TEMPS...WITH ETA MOS THE POOREST PERFORMER BY FAR. I COULD SEE NO MORE THAN A 10 DEGREE WARMUP TODAY GIVEN CLOUDS AND RAIN...SO THIS ALSO MAKES THE MAV MAX TEMPS LOOK LIKE A PRUDENT CHOICE AGAIN TODAY. MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT LOOKED GOOD FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS AND FORECAST...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE MOS BLEND. MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ESPECIALLY NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE SINKS SOUTH AND SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. WILL ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS BOTH PERIODS. AS WARM AIR MOVES NORTH MONDAY AIRMASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOISTURE SURGES INITIALLY NORTH THROUGH LOWER MS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THIS AREA AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST DYNAMICS ACROSS FORECAST AREA OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUESDAY WITH DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY NEAR 60 ACROSS SOUTHEAST TN. ETA SOUNDINGS INDICATING 850 MB WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH HIGH SHEAR BUT LI'S ONLY NEAR ZERO AND LOW CAPES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD GIVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FOLLOWED COOLER MAV GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT HAS DONE BETTER ON HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS. FCSTID = 99 CHA 61 53 69 55 / 70 50 40 30 TYS 59 50 68 53 / 70 50 30 30 TRI 57 47 66 49 / 60 40 20 30 OQT 59 50 67 53 / 70 50 30 30 .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. TG/TD ********************************************************************* EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE) 836 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2003 SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH. AS THE UPPER WAVE TRACKS THROUGH...SCATTERED RAIN WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. ALL HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST...NO UPDATES EXPECTED. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. MJB ********************************************************************* AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION 345 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2003 SFC RIDGE OVR AREA SLIDES E THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR WAA AND FAIRLY WEAK SW FLOW. ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT WITH ENTRANCE REGION GETTING NE OF AREA LATE ON SUNDAY. SO EXPECT PCPN TO TAPER OFF SOME TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN EARLY SUN WITH MORE COVERAGE ACROSS S AREAS THEN TDY. UPR RIDGE MOVES ACROSS EARLY MON WITH AXIS GETTING OVR OR THRU E TN BY MON AFTRNOON. SCT PCPN MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE EXPECTED LINGERING INTO MONDAY EVENING. RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL AND MILD TEMP RANGE WITH EXTENDED CLOUD COVER. IN THE LONG TERM...STRONG COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LOW LEVEL JET 50-60KTS AHEAD OF IT...BUT NOT VERY UNSTABLE. STILL THINK WE'LL SEE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. MODELS PUSH FRONT THROUGH A LITTLE QUICKER NOW...WILL ONLY KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CHA TE 051/066 054/070 056 17388 TBBAB 068/048 059/039 064/044 066/046 065 45663110000 TYS TE 046/064 050/069 053 17576 TBBAB 067/047 055/037 061/042 063/044 063 44663110000 TRI TE 043/060 046/067 050 17664 TEBAB 065/044 051/033 057/038 060/040 061 23663110000 OQT TT 046/064 050/068 053 17676 TBBAB 066/047 055/037 060/042 062/044 062 55663110000 SON/GH ********************************************************************* LATE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE) 1100 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2003 FORECAST ON TRACK. RAISED POPS N AREAS AND REMOVED MIXED PCPN WORDING. LOWERED POPS SE. REGROUPED UNION COUNTY IN ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER POPS. LEFT GOOD CHANCE CNTRL/S VALLEYS BUT EXPECT VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS. COOL TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO FCST MAXS DESPITE CLOUD COVER WITH LATE LLVL SW FLOW. SON ********************************************************************* $$