####018002974#### FXUS64 KSHV 122232 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 432 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009 .DISCUSSION... THIS AFTERNOON SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS NORTH INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND JOINED THE LOWER END OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REACHED NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ALOFT AND IN THE MID LEVELS A BROAD SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WAS INDICATED BY WIND PROFILER AND SATELLITE DATA...WITH A MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW NOTED FROM THE SURFACE TO JUST BELOW THE MID LEVEL. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION UNTIL THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW NORTH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. ONE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS OVERNIGHT AND LIFTING OUT EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE UPPER MID WEST INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND WILL SEND A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE AND ADVANCE EAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCE WILL BE HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR AND ALONG SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY WEEK UNTIL THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST EJECTING AROUND AND OUT OF THE WESTERN LOW/TROUGH PROVIDES ANOTHER WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT NEAR MID WEEK. THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OUT WEST AND BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST. /06/ && .AVIATION... PATCHY MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING THIS EVENING IN MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. WARM FRONT TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH FROM THE COAST BTWN 06-12Z...RAPID LOWERING OF MVFR...SOME IFR IN RAIN DURG FRI AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR STALLING WARM FRONT. WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z SAT./07/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 48 67 49 65 46 / 10 50 30 10 20 MLU 46 64 51 65 43 / 10 70 50 10 30 DEQ 45 64 39 60 39 / 10 20 20 10 10 TXK 45 65 43 62 43 / 10 20 20 10 10 ELD 46 63 45 64 42 / 10 50 40 10 20 TYR 51 67 47 64 48 / 10 20 10 10 20 GGG 50 68 48 64 47 / 10 20 20 10 20 LFK 51 70 52 68 50 / 20 40 30 20 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 06/07 ####018004317#### FXUS62 KFFC 122234 AAA AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 535 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. PROGD TO DRIFT EAST AND BECOME CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH GEORGIA AS A WARM FRONT. INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE CAPE AND LIFTED INDICES FROM ZERO TO MINUS ONE. HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT HELICITIES IN THE 200 TO 400 RANGE ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION EARLY SATURDAY ...PULLING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT PROGD INTO SOUTH GEORGIA BY DAYS END WITH BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND WITH LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN POPS INCREASING INTO THE GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY MOST PLACES FRIDAY EVENING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LOOKING GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS SATURDAY. WILL END ALL PRECIP BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS SHOW REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY MEANDERING NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA. EXTENDED PROGS SIMILAR WITH DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL SECTS SUNDAY SO SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK OKAY. SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO DRY FORECAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. LATEST GFS RUN SHOW THIS SYSTEM SHIFTING EAST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THURSDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... SOME AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 % AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED...WE MY FALL SHORT ON THE REQUIRED DURATION TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING WATCH/WARNING AT THIS TIME...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AND ISSUE IF LATER MODEL RUN COME IN DRIER THAT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. && .AVIATION... RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST BY SUNRISE. FEW HIGH CIRRUS TONIGHT...OTHWERWISE SKC. NO AVIATION CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 37 71 50 59 42 / 0 0 80 70 10 ATLANTA 44 69 52 61 43 / 0 10 90 60 10 BLAIRSVILLE 33 63 44 56 35 / 0 0 80 60 10 CARTERSVILLE 34 67 49 61 38 / 0 10 90 50 10 COLUMBUS 39 72 52 65 47 / 0 20 80 80 10 GAINESVILLE 40 68 49 59 43 / 0 5 80 60 10 MACON 37 72 50 66 45 / 0 5 90 80 10 ROME 32 66 48 64 40 / 0 5 90 50 10 PEACHTREE CITY 30 68 49 61 39 / 0 10 90 70 10 VIDALIA 37 73 50 67 49 / 0 0 80 80 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE... DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON... JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...PEACH... PULASKI...SCHLEY...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS... TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX... WILKINSON. && $$ 49