AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 821 PM MST FRI FEB 25 2000 A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF MY CWFA. LATEST ITERATION OF MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 DEVELOPING BY 12Z LOOKING BETTER. LATEST ETA AND RUC2 HAVE BEEN UNDERESTIMATING WIND SPEEDS AT KAKO AND IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. TAKING THE BIASES OBSERVED SO FAR WITH THE RUC2 AND ETA BELIEVE WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 05Z ACROSS THE CWFA BEHIND THE LATEST COLD SURGE. ADDITIONAL LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SHOWING UP IN NORTHWEST PORTION OF RADAR PLAN VIEW AND IS DEPICTED WELL BY PROGS...SO WILL INCREASE FLURRIES TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES BY END OF FIRST PERIOD. A MINOR TWEAK IN WORDING WILL BE NEEDED IN EASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR QUICK SNOW BURST ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE SECOND PERIOD. .GLD...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF CWA UNTIL 18Z SATURDAY. ENTWISTLE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 236 PM CST FRI FEB 25 2000 ...CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND POPS IN WRAP AROUND FOR MY NORTHERN ZONES ON SATURDAY... 12Z UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWING H5 LOW OVER COLORADO MOVING RAPIDLY EAST TOWARD NEBRASKA WITH THE H8 LOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SURFACE/SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWED AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND RAIN/SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WIND INVADING THE REGION FROM COLORADO AS THE SURFACE TROF PASSES TODAY. LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MY FA ARE QUITE DRY WITH CONSIDERABLE EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKING PLACE BELOW THE PRECIPITATION AREAS. ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE MODELS INITIALIZED QUITE WELL IN THE MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE DESPITE THE DIFFICULTIES THEY ALL HAD WITH RESOLVING BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ONLY THE RUC AND MESOETA CAUGHT THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WHICH MOVED IN FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING AND THAT MAY BIAS LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST THOUGH THANKFULLY NOT FOR MY FA. ONCE AGAIN WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON THE ETA DUE TO ITS BETTER TERRAIN RESOLUTION. FOR TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW AND VORT PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TAKE OVER WITH SKIES GOING PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY. TOWARD DAWN HOWEVER THE MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE UPPER FEATURE AND SPREAD ACROSS MY ZONES FROM THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ALL THE BETTER RESOLUTION MODELS SPIN UP SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE WILL NOT LOOK FOR MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION BUT WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES IN MY NORTHERN ZONES. MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM OVERNIGHT WITH ALL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING EXPECTED FROM THE VIRGA TYPE PRECIPITATION. WILL UNDERCUT MOS A BIT TONIGHT. MOS IS ALREADY 10-12 HOURS BEHIND WITH THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS MY ZONES. I EXPECT THE WIND TO DROP TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 600 PM AND WILL THUS ALLOW WIND ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE BUT KEEP A MENTION OF BREEZY OVERNIGHT. FOR SATURDAY THE CLOUD AND VIRGA SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS MY ZONES IN THE MORNING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE REGION SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST LOWER LAYER FLOW WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING LOOSENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING THE WIND TO BELOW BREEZY LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. WITH DOWNSLOPE AND GOOD INSOLATION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL GO ABOVE MOS FOR HIGHS. AS THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE OVER WEST KANSAS WILL LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A TOUGH CALL. MOS SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON IT BEING CONSIDERABLY COLDER AND WILL NOT VARY MUCH FROM MOS LOWS. THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM NOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING THUS WE SHOULD SEE A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE PLAINS REGION. HARD TO KNOW AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH CIRRUS WILL SPILL ACROSS THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS AND HOW THAT WILL EFFECT THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME MOUNTAIN ENHANCED CIRRUS ON SUNDAY MAKING MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY ATTRACTIVE. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... MODEL TRENDS TODAY MIRROR THOSE OF YESTERDAY. 25/00Z MRF AND CANADIAN ARE VERY CLOSE WITH SOLUTIONS THROUGH 144 HRS. THIS OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE PATTERN CROSSING CONUS. STARTING AS SOON AS SUNDAY MORNING...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A SLOWER WAVE PATTERN. WILL SELECT TO FOLLOW THE RECENT TREND OF GOING WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MRF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MRF NOW IS TARGETING WEDNESDAY AS THE DAY OF OUR SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THUS...WILL PUSH STORMS FROM THURSDAY TO WEDNESDAY. WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...PERHAPS JUST A FEW MINOR TEMPERATURE TWEAKS. FRIDAY/S FORECAST SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY/S. PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST. DDC 031/056 020/072 038 110 GCK 027/057 015/074 036 110 EHA 027/058 016/076 038 000 LBL 032/058 021/075 039 000 HYS 034/052 019/062 038 -10 P28 036/056 029/068 040 000 .DDC...NONE. JOHNSON/SLEIGHTER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 315 PM CST FRI FEB 25 2000 LINE OF STRONG TSTMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF AREA. NO ACTIVITY SEVERE AS OF YET...BUT DYNAMICS FAVORABLE FOR MESO FORMATION ALONG WITH LOW WET BULB ZEROES AROUND 8000 FT. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A WEAK...BUT FAIRLY DEEP CAP BETWEEN 8-600 MB. RUC INDICATED COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THIS LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ARKANSAS SECTIONS...BUT WARM AIR FURTHER SOUTH. BELIEVE STORM LINE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST BY EVENING...LEAVING CAP IN PLACE FURTHER SOUTH. ROUND TWO? ANY DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS TONIGHT LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE AS HIGH RESOLUTION ETA MODEL BACKS SURFACE WINDS UNDERNEATH SCREAMING LOW LEVEL JET 50-60+ KTS. ETA ALSO COINCIDING GOOD WARMING LOW LAYERS WITH COOLING MID LEVEL ALONG WITH THE DYNAMICS. NGM REDUCES SEVERE THREAT DUE TO INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS NOT TIMED TOGETHER AS WELL. FINAL ROUND. DRY LINE FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL TRENDS YIELD A SLOWING TREND PAST COUPLE RUNS... WHICH NOW RAISES THE QUESTION OF CONDITIONS FOR AREAWIDE FESTIVITIES ON SATURDAY. ETA MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THREE...THE BEST WISHCAST. HOWEVER...NGM AND AVN A FEW HOURS SLOWER AND IN AGREEMENT. IN ADDITION...AVN VERTICAL VELOCITIES BLOSSOM ALONG THIS LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT LEAST FOR SHV METRO...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY PARADE TIME UNLESS 0Z RUNS INDICATE MORE DELAY TRENDS. LEAVE IN LOWER MAINLY EVENING POPS FOR 3RD PERIOD. BRIEF WRAPAROUND CLOUDS INTO NORTH SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES BECOMING SUNNY. RIDGE PROMOTE CLEAR AND CALM RADIATION COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT. LEAVE IN WINDY FOR TONIGHT BUT DECREASING TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. WILL NEED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AT LEAST LOUISIANA PORTIONS WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE SIMILAR HEATING ON SATURDAY WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS LIKELY INTO AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SAT NIGHT HOLD TEMPS WELL ABOVE FALLING DEWPOINTS. SHV 62/73/45/67 3630 TYR 58/70/40/69 5300 MLU 65/76/48/68 2550 LFK 65/76/42/70 3520 TXK 60/70/41/67 5620 SHV...WIND ADVISORY REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON VII la EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 830 PM CST FRI FEB 25 2000 COLD POCKET ALOFT OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES HAS YET TO ROTATE BENEATH UPPER TROF. AS THAT HAPPENS...HEIGHTS WILL LOWER AND VORTICITY SHOULD INCREASE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE TROF OVERNIGHT. THIS IS DEPICTED WELL IN THE 12-HOUR RUC MODEL FORECAST AS IT SHARPENS THE TROF OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS IS HOLDING UP EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM...AND MAY BE SOMEWHAT RESPONSIBLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A HUGO TO FORT SMITH LINE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS OKAY EXCEPT WINDS HAVE WEAKENED MORE THAN FIRST THOUGHT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT MORE WIND...BUT CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE OBSERVATIONS. WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT MOST ALL AREAS. WILL LEAVE TEMPS AS THEY ARE. FCSTID = 02 .TUL... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. ok EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1045 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2000 LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS CONTINUING TO MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN SEVERE SO FAR EXCEPT FOR ONE POSSIBLE GUSTNADO IN NORTHEAST TULSA. HOWEVER...LINE IS MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR INTENSIFICATION. EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS SEEN TEMPORARY CLEARING BEHIND THE LINE. QUESTION WILL BE IF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH WAS PULLED EASTWARD WITH THE INITIAL LINE CAN BE REPLENISHED THIS AFTERNOON. GLIMPSE OF AREA PROFILERS INDICATE LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN BACKING SINCE THIS MORNING AFTER HAVING TURNED WESTERLY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SHARP NARROW LINE OF CUMULUS FORMING WEST OF FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR REDEVELOPMENT FOR MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. ONLT GLIMPSED AT NEW RUC...BUT IT SEEMS TO SHOW RAPID PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AROUND 18Z FROM BVO-ADM. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. ON THE UPDATE PACKAGE...MAY LOWER POPS IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF TULSA. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT DOWN MIXING SO WILL ONLY GO WITH A CAUTION FOR AREA LAKES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER LOOKING AT 16Z TEMPS HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER MAXES A CATEGORY DUE TO THE CLOUDS. OUTPERIODS WILL BE LEFT UNCHANGED. FCSTID = 11 .TUL... AR...NONE. OK...NONE. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1018 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2000 ANY SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STIFF NORTHEAST WIND BLOWING INTO THE AREA AND THIS HAS COOLED THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN. THE SAME HOLDS TRUE FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY NEW YORK WHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXIST. WILL ADD CLINTON COUNTY NEW YORK TO THIS ADVISORY AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA AS WELL. EAST OF THIS AREA...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THIS HAS LIMITED SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SHALLOW COLD AIR INTO VERMONT AND INSTEAD HAS KEPT IT ACROSS PARTS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IN HERE AS LONG AS THIS FEATURE EXISTS. LATEST RUC FORECAST DOES MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE THROUGH 18Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THAT IS ENHANCING DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS HELPED TO SET UP A DEFORMATION ZONE FROM FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH BURLINGTON AND OVER TO SAINT JOHNSBURY. AREAS NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THIS LINE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM MAY HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING STEADY PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS WITH THE DIFFICULT TIME OF COLD AIR GETTING INTO THAT AREA MAKES THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN PROBLEMS IN JEOPARDY. SO WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO MAKE A DECISION ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LEANING RIGHT NOW TO GETTING RID OF IT AT 1100 AM. REST OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. WORK ZONES IN ALBADMBTV EVENSON .BTV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON VTZ003-004-007 AND NYZ026-027-028. vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 939 PM EST FRI FEB 25 2000 SHORT TERM...DOV 88-D SHOWS SOME LING SH AND ISOLATED TSTM ACT ACRS MD. HOWEVER SINCE NOTHING HAS REDEVELOPED TO THE NW...XPCT THAT ONCE THIS MOVES OFF THE CST...THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WL BE OVER. SO WL CONT THE CHANCE POPS UNTIL MID. 02Z SFC OBS SHOW THAT THE BACKDOOR FRNT IS XTNDNG FM A WK LOW NR CHO TO JST N OF EZF AND THEN E/SE TO BTWN SBY AND OXB. THIS IS A LITTLE FARTHER S THAN BOTH THE NGM AND ETA 12Z PROGS HOWEVER THE RUC AND MESOETA SEEM TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CUR SIT. SO FOLLOWNG THEIR TRND...XPCT THE FRNT TO BE JUST N OF RIC E TO THE NRN NECK AND NR WAL BY MRON. TO THE S OF THE FRNT...COND SHULD REMAIN MCLR AND MILD THRU NIGHT WITH DEWPTS REMAING IN THE UPR 40S IN THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ELSEWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS UPWARD A CAT SINCE DEW/S ARE A FEW DEG HIGHER THAN FCST. BY MORNING FOR LOC N OF THE FRNT...THE LOW CLDS CURRENTLY SINKNG S ACRS DE AND NR MD SHULD PROGRESS INTO THE AREA. SO WNT W/CLO COND IN MD AND BECMG MCLO LATE ACRS THE REMANDER OF THE DELMARVA...THE NRN NECK AND MIDDLE PENINSULA. ALSO TEMPS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY JUST TO THE N OF THE FRNT SO DO NOT THNK MD AND UPR 40S ARE OUT OF THE QUES FOR MD AND NERN VA ZNS. .CWF...W THE FARTHER SRN PLACEMENT OF THE FRNT BY MORN...HAVE ALLOW FOR THE EWRD WND FLOW ACRS ALL OF THE BAY AND TO THE NC/VA BORDER IN THE CSTAL WATERS. .AKQ...NONE. SHADE va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1049 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2000 FIRST WARM FRONT NOW SWEEPING NORTH THROUGH CLARK COUNTY WISCONSIN. SECOND WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF KCAV TO KCWI AND MOVING NORTH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT MOVING NORTH FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHERN ZONES OF LA CROSSE FORECAST AREA. KARX RADAR INDICATES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. KDMX RADAR HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL IOWA WHICH WAS MOVING GENERALLY NORTH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF OUR NORTHEAST IOWA COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VISIBILITES WERE IMPROVING AS THE FIRST WARM FRONT SWEPT NORTH AND WILL DROP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR REMAINING COUNTIES. RUC 14Z RUN INDICATED PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AT 17Z...AND THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS AFTER 20Z. .LSE...NONE. NELSON wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 255 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2000 STRONG UPR LVL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESS AREA CONTS TO SPIN IN ERN SD...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT/DRY LINE ACROSS ERN IA...TO NERN MO TO WRN ARK. SATL SHOWS DRY SLOT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT WRAPPING ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO THE LOW CENTER. BOUNDARY IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ATTM AS IT HAS BECOME PARELLEL TO THE SW UPR LVL FLOW. QUESTIONS TDY IS TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CEN IL TDY AND ASSOC SHRA/TSRA CHC WITH IT LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. CURRENT SFC ANAL SHOWS UIN DWPT TEMP HAS DROPPED TO 7 DEG C WHILE SPI IS STILL AT 12 DEG C. 06Z RUC SHOWS BOUNDARY ALMOST COMING TO A HALT UNTIL 18Z FROM PIA TO SGF. PRESS FALLS ON 06Z ANAL TEND TO AGREE WITH BEST FALLS ACROSS WI WITH FALLS ALMOST NON EXISTANT ACROSS SRN IL AND ERN ARK. SO TEND TO AGREE THAT DRY LINE WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH SFC BASED MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH...QUESTION THEN RETURNS TO SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT OR CONTINUING TDY ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF CEN IL. ETA/NGM APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION IN NRN ARK THE BEST WITH PLACEMENT OF THE LRQ OF THE 120 KT UPR LVL JET WITH NICE UPR DIFLUENCE IN THIS AREA. LRQ OF THE JET MAKES ITS WAY NORTH INTO CEN IL BY 18Z WITH MOISTURE FLUX CONVG ALSO INCREASING DURING THIS TIME ALSO. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR SVR CONVECTION REDVLPG IS THE CURRENT CLOUD DEBRIS FROM ONGOING SHRA LIMITING THE HEATING DURING THE DAY. EXPECT MOST OF THE THIS CURRENT PCPN TO MOVE EAST INTO IND THIS MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA TO REDVLP MAINLY EAST OF I--55 BY AFTN AS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARE OVERWHELMING...BUT FEEL THAT WORKED OVER ATMOS MAY HAVE A REDUCED SVR WX POTENTIAL. EVEN WITH REDUCED SVR WX THREAT...LOTS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF IL. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT WILL MENTION HVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONES. WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS TEMPS SHOULD BE A TAD COOLER THAN YSTRDY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN VERY WARM THIS MORNING...SO WILL FOLLOW FWC/FAN LEAD AND BUMPS UP HIGH TEMPS FOR PIA. TEMPS LOOK FINE ELSEWHERE AND SEE NO MAJOR CHANGES. DRY LINE PASSES DURING THE EVENING HOURS BRINGING CLRG SKIES AND DRY SLOT ACROSS CEN IL. ETA/NGM POINT TO SECONDARY TROF MOVING ACROSS IL BY 12Z/SUN...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF PCPN. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED FOR RAIN CHC BUT WILL LEAVE THIS ALONE GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT OVHD AND CYCL FLOW. GOING ZONES HANDLE THIS WELL AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHGS TO THIS. COORD WITH LSX AND DVN...THANKS. PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY... SPI BB 069/038 052/034 052 22730 PIA BB 067/036 053/031 045 22423 DEC BB 069/038 053/034 052 22730 CMI BB 067/040 052/032 049 22+53 MTO BB 067/041 052/033 051 22+60 LWV BB 070/042 052/034 051 22+60 .ILX... IL...NONE. $$ KETCHAM il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1128 PM EST FRI FEB 25 2000 MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE FOG...SHRA/TSRA...AND SNOWMELT. 00Z SNDGS GRB AND APX HAVE SHARP SFC INVERSIONS AND ARE SATURATED BLO 800MB. GRB HAS PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER 600-800MB...ALSO EVIDENT BUT NOT AS DRY AT APX. SFC OBS W AND CNTRL UPR MI VSBYS 1/4SM OR SLGHTLY GTR WITH STRENGTHENING BL WIND FIELD. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS NR VERTICALLY STACKED AND DEEPENING H5 LOW SE SD WITH MAIN VORT MAX ON SE SIDE OVR ERN NB ORBITING N AND TRACKING NE WITH THE LOW. AT 02Z WFNT XTNDS FM SFC LOW SE SD-SRN MN-SRN WI-SRN LWR MI BASED ON DEW PT GRADIENT AND AND FOG TO NORTH OF FNT. WFNT PROGGED TO PUSH THRU W-CNTRL UPR 06-09Z. TSRA CENT IA AND SW MN ASSOC W/LEADING EDGE OF MAIN PVA AREA IN -2 LI AMS. LEADING EDGE THIS PVA ENTERS WRN UPR MI SHRTLY AFT 06Z... STRENGTHENS...AND SHEARS WITHOUT PROGRESSING BEYOND CENTRAL UPR MI BY MID AM. MESOETA HAS ELONGATED VORT MAX SW WI-S IL. SHRA/TSRA SW WI AND ENHANCED WV IMAGERY OVR ERN IA ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH MESOETA PROGS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NORTH THRU WRN UPR MI 03-06Z. 100KT H3 JET NOSES ITS WAY INTO WRN UPR MI ON WEST EDGE THETA-E RDG 06-09Z WITH LEFT EXIT RGN OVR WRN LK SUPERIOR. BEST D-DVGC AND 700-400MB UVV DEPICTED ON NOSE OF THE JET OVR UPR MI. 55KT H8 JET FOLLOWS SIMILAR TRACK OVR UPR. 1000MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BULLSEYE AN STNG WAA OVR UPR MI. THE ENTIRE PATTERN SHIFTS TO CENTRAL UPR MI BY 12Z. PRECIP WATER INCREASING TO 0.95 IN CENTRAL UPR. GTST INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF UPR AND DECREASES AFT 06Z. RUC SNDGS INCREASE MOISTURE BLO 850 MB...AND PARCEL LIFTED FROM 900MB HAS SLIGHT POSITIVE AREA THRU 400MB...CONVECTION BEING RETARDED BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT 800-500MB. HWVR...DYNAMICS AFT 06Z MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RUNBLES OF THUNDER. SFC TEMPS NR 40F IN CNTRL UPR...NR 43 WEST ALONG WITH SUSTAINED SE WINDS 15KTS AND SHRA CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SNOW PACK WITH EFFICIENT SNOWMELT. RIVERS BLO ACTION STAGE WITH SLOW INBANK RISES. THE CLOSEST TO ACTION STAGE IS THE ESCANABA R NR CORNELL AT A HALF FOOT BLO AND SHOWING LTL RISE. BARELY ABV BORDERLINE ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH VSBYS CENTRAL AND NW UPR HOVERING AROUND 1/4SM. VSBY LT 1/4 AT CMX SEEMS CONSTRAINED TO SPINE OF KEWEENAW PER COMMUNICATIONS WITH FOLKS IN HOUGTON. INCREASING BL WIND FIELD...SHRA... WFROPA SHOULD HELP TO KEEP VSBYS GENERALLY 1/4 OR BTR. .MQT...GALE WARNING LK SUPERIOR. JP mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1040 PM EST THU FEB 24 2000 UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AREAS OF DENSE FOG NOW ADVECTING IN FROM SE ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY...PRESUMABLY FROM SERLY SFC FLOW OFF OF WRN LAKE ERIE. THIS COULD CREEP INTO THE LANSING METRO AREA AS WELL OVERNIGHT. NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDED FOR FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH NEARLY SATURATED LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ONLY BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER SWRN COUNTIES... WHERE TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S. IT WOULD BE CLIMATOLOGICAL SUICIDE TO PREDICT OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR ABOVE 60 DEG FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SO UPPER 50S WAS THE DECISION FOR THESE AREAS. AS FOR CONVECTION TO THE WEST...LATEST 00Z RUN OF ETA AND 02Z RUC II CONTINUE TO KEEP PCPN WEST OF FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFT 12Z. AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING MOSTLY DUE NORTH THIS EVENING OVER ERN WI AND IL. PREV FORECAST HAD MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR NWRN COUNTIES LATE. KEPT THIS AND ADDED 30 POP FOR MKG-BIV-GRR AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. DPVA AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS BEFORE THE MAIN AREA MOVES IN AFT 12Z. GRR...NONE. GREENE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 938 PM EST FRI FEB 25 2000 CURRENT FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS OVERNIGHT REVOLVE AROUND TEMPERATURE TREND AND FOG. PLAN TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS BEEN FORMING ON LEADING EDGE OF TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRADIENT WHICH IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOWER MOISTURE ALONG THIS EDGE IS EVIDENT ON THE 11-3.9 IR LOOP. IN THIS MOVING BAND DURATION OF DENSE FOG HAS BEEN RELATIVELY SHORT. HOWEVER...IN NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH THE SOUTHEAST WIND BRINGING COOLER AIR OFF THE LAKE...THE FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN. LATEST RUC FORECAST SHOWS THIS TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRADIENT TO ENCOUNTER RESISTANCE OVERNIGHT IN THOSE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...AS SOUTHEAST WIND TO CONTINUE BRINGING COOLER LAKE AIR INLAND. SO...THE AREA THAT IS ADVECTING NORTH SHOULD ONLY ENHANCE THE FOG ALREADY IN PLACE THERE. HENCE WILL ISSUE A FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WARMER AIR ADVECTING NORTH INTO REMAINDER OF COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...HENCE WILL FAVOR A STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURE FORECAST THERE. .DTX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY MIZ049-054-055-062-063. STRUBLE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 830 PM CST FRI FEB 25 2000 FORECAST CONCERN IS MOVEMENT OF DRY LINE AND VORT LOBE INTO THE REST OF CWA TONIGHT. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON PV ADVECTION (WHICH LOOKS QUITE STRONG) ACROSS CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD SEE AN END TO CONVECTION OVER ALL BUT N PART OF CWA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. NICE THICKNESS DIFLUENCE INTO S MN..AND JET SHOWING UP ON PROFILERS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. LUCKILY IT IS STILL FEB AND SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DECREASING QUICKLY. TEMP TRENDS LOOK OK BUT COULD REACH UPPER 30S SW CWA. .MSP...NONE RICHARDSON mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1030 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2000 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL MN. SOME CLEARING IN SRN MN IN WAKE OF SYSTEM. FOG HAS GENRALLY LIFTED OVER FORECAST AREA WITH WIND AND RAIN. A COUPLE OF AREAS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC MODEL FOCUSES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN WRN IA AND LIFTS LINE OF SHOWERS NEWRD BY MID AFTERNOON...AREA OF THICKNESS DIFLUENCE SHOULD BE FOCUS. THESE SHOWERS COULD AFFECT PART OF S CENTRAL MN AND W CENTRAL WI. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN WRN KS/NEB WILL LIFT NEWRD AND TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS INTO SW MN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE (SEE SWODY1 DISCUSSION). FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE DEVELOPMENTS. .MSP...NONE. SCOTT mn SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE ...UPDATE... 320 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2000 UPDATE... ...AFTER OBSERVING WINDS TO THE WEST INCREASING AGAIN AND LOOKING OVER 06Z RUC..HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY TODAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80... ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW AND CONTINUED STRONG WINDS ARE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST. OCCLUDED LOW SPINNING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN SDAK ATTM WITH PCPN WRAPPING BACK INTO NRN AND WRN CWA. PCPN HAS AUTOMATED SENSORS WAFFLING BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW BUT THIS SHOULD TREND TOWARD SNOW OVER THE NORTH AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT SWEEPING LIGHT PCPN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL PLACE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MIX OVER THE SOUTH. WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME WITH A WEST TO EAST ENDING TREND. PROBABLY JUST TRACE EVENT IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE PCPN WILL BE LAST TO REACH AND SHOULD BE LIGHTEST AS SYSTEM PULLS OUT. WINDS HAD SETTLED DOWN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT ANOTHER SURGE IS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. BEST SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AT 06Z WERE ACROSS NW NEBR. MERRIMAN AND RED WILLOW PROFILERS STILL SHOW 45 TO 55 KNOTS IN LOWER GATES. THIS IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO DROP TO 40 TO 45 KTS DURING THE MORNING AND LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SURFACE WINDS MAY BE DAMPENED A BIT BY CLOUD COVER AND WEAKEN SOME AS GRADIENT RELAXES WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THEREFORE...AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIND ADVSY BUT WILL WORD FOR GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE TODAY...POSSIBLY GIVING TOO MUCH WEIGHT TO INITIAL 00Z CONDITIONS AND DISCOUNTING AMOUNT OF CAA/CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. AFTER TODAY...WINDS AND CLOUDS DECREASE WITH A MILD SUNDAY IN STORE. AM NOT GOING TO BATTLE GUIDANCE TOO MUCH THEN AS IT LOOKS REASONABLE AND IS CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST. PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAD GOOD HANDLE ON SLOWING DOWN NEXT SYSTEM AS LATEST AVN CONTINUES THIS SLOWING TREND...NEAR 12Z UKMET. 00Z NOGAPS ACTUALLY TAKES FIRST WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BRINGS THE NEXT ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATER WED. WILL LOOK AT LATEST MRF BEFORE RENDERING FINAL DECISION BUT FOR NOW FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. .GID...WIND ADVISORY TODAY NZ039>041-046>049-060>064. DROZD ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 900 PM EST FRI FEB 25 2000 QSTNRY FNT HAS MADE SOME SWD PROGRESS ACRS PA OVR PAST FEW HRS. 00Z KALY SOUNDING RMNS FAIRLY MOIST IN LOWEST 45 HND FT WITH TOP OF INVRSN JUST ABV 5 THSD FT AND LGT-MOD DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEARS...THIS APPEARS SET UP FOR OROGRAPHIC DRZL. KBUF SOUNDING MOIST LYR ONLY ABT 1 THSD FT DP...THUS WRN DIST MORE APT TO STAY DRY DURG OVRNGT HRS...SPCLY WITH RUC TRYING TO BRING H7 ACYC FLOW INTO WRN DIST BY 06Z. SFC TEMP/DWPNT SPREADS ALREADY NIL OR CLOSE TO IT ACRS PERHAPS HLF OF DIST ALREADY...THEREFORE WL MAINTAIN FG FOR ALL ZONES. SATPIX DO NOT LOOK VERY SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING...THUS ONLY MINOR TEMP REFINEMENTS FM PREV PACKAGE. MCKINLEY/MAC .ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE. ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 740 PM CST FRI FEB 25 2000 COMBINATION OF DRY LINE AND MODIFIED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BACKED NORTH-WESTWARD INTO THE DFW AREA. WE WILL UPDATE AND ADD LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DFW AREA...AND ALSO TO THE COUNTIES TO THE NEAR EAST...SOUTHEAST...AND SOUTH. THE SHORT RANGE RUC MODEL AGREES WITH OBSERVATIONS...AND HAS THE BOUNDARY MOVING BACK THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW NW OF THE METROPLEX AT 03Z. WILL ALSO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY. WE WILL UPDATE AGAIN TONIGHT WHEN WE HAVE HAD TIME TO DIGEST SOME DATA AND TRENDS. .FTW...NONE 26 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 150 PM CST FRI FEB 25 2000 SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED. DECISION TREE FOR HIGH WIND USING THE 18Z RUC NOW ONLY INDICATES 25 TO 35 MPH. WILL CANCEL HIGH WIND WARNING AND REPLACE IT WITH A WIND ADVISORY. .LBB...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON TX021>044. VALDEZ tx TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 120 PM CST FRI FEB 25 2000 12Z ANLYS AND LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL BE RELAXING THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. HAVE REPLACED HIGH WIND WARNING WITH WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. .AMA... TX...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON TXZ001>020. OK...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON OKZ001>003. SLATTERY tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 250 AM EST SAT FEB 26 2000 GOING WITHOUT UPPER AIR AGAIN THIS MORNING...STILL AWAITING PARTS. WATCHING ST ADVANCE SLOWLY INTO EXTREME NE VA BEHIND WEAK BACKDOOR FNT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN STALLING OUT THE FNT AND LOW CLDS NE OF THE CWA. RUC SHOWING WIND SHIFT MAY GET INTO BUCKINGHAM COUNTY BY 12Z BUT WL NOT ADVANCE ANY FARTEHR. SINCE LOW CLDS ARE LAGGING BEHIND THE FNT PLAN TO GO WITH ONLY GO WITH SCT CLDS TDY. ENDED UP HAVING A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS FRI WHICH HELPED DRIVE UP TEMP. DON'T SEE THAT TDY...IN FACT WINDS SHUD BE INCREASING OUT OF THE S...85H WINDS START OUT ARND 10 KTS AND RISE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE BY 00Z SAT AND THEN UP TO 35 TO 45 KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FNT ON SUN. ALSO EXPECT MORE CI BLOWFOFF FROM AFTN TN VLY CONVECTION SO HIGHS SHUD BE ABOUT A CAT LOWER THAN FRI. AGREE WITH NCEP AND WILL USE FASTER NGM/AVN TIMING WITH THE APPROACHING FNT AND PCPN. WL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE W FOR SUN AND SUN EVE...IN THE E LIKELY POPS SUN AFTN AND SUN NGT. PLAN ON TAKING OUR PCPN FOR MON SINCE CDFNT WL BE OFFSHORE BY 12Z. TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S COMING INTO WRN NE/WRN KS AT 06Z...MAKING COLD AIR ON AVN/MRF BELEIVABLE. WITH CAA AND UPSLOPE WL HOLD THE CLDS IN FOR MON. RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 26... BLACKSBURG 72 1996 ROANOKE 78 1996 LYNCHBURG 77 1977 BLUEFIELD 75 1977 VA...NONE. WV...NONE. NC...NONE. AMS va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1022 PM CST FRI FEB 25 2000 UPDATED FOR PRECIP TRENDS JUST SENT UPDATED ZNS. NO MAJOR CHGS FM PREV FCST UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING. QUICK LOOK AT NEW ETA AND LATEST RUC INDC THAT BEST CHCS FOR RAINFALL TNGT WL BE OVR SOUTH CNTRL MO. DRYLINE HAS WORKED TO VCNTY OF KSGF ATTM. WITH UPR TROF AXIS STILL WELL TO THE WEST... AND ANOTHER WIND MAX PROGGED TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TNGT...COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA ACRS ERN OK AND AR.... WITH ACTIVITY LIFTING NEWD ALONG AND EAST OF STALLED SFC BNDRY. LEFT FAR WRN ZNS DRY TNGT...WITH INCREASING POPS TO THE EAST. CURRENT FCST TRENDS FOR SATURDAY LOOK GOOD WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE FA FM THE WEST AND PERSISTING THRU SUNDAY. NO OTHER CHGS TO ZNS. .SGF...NONE. CR mo SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 853 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2000 UPDATED THE ZFP TO INCLUDE ALL AREAS WITH WIND ADVISORY TODAY. 50 TO 55 KT LOWER GATES OF MERRIMAN PROFILER AND 40/50 KT FORECAST OF H85 WINDS ON THE RUC WARRANT THE EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY. SECOND SURGE OF 5MB PRESSURE RISES COMING THROUGH THE REGION ATTM. INCLUDED ENTIRE CWFA IN THE WIND ADVISORY. THE WORST OF THE WIND SHOULD BE BEFORE 1 PM...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. BUT DECIDED NOT TO GET CONFUSING WITH ENDING TIMES. THIS ALLOWS FOR AN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON UPDATE AS NEEDED. .GID...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES. MORITZ ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 325 PM SAT FEB 26 2000 VERY NARROW LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE FIRED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISC AND NW ILL THIS AFT...BUT MAIN CONCERN FOR GRR CWA REMAINS EXTENSIVE RAIN SHIELD ASSOC/W JET STREAK THAT HAS LIFTED NE OUT OF BASE OF SHARP H5 TROF. APPEARS LACK OF SFC HEATING WILL PRECLUDE THE THREAT FROM ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA...PER SPC DISC...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FIRST PERIOD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS AT LOW LEVELS...BUT STILL HAVE 45+ KTS BELOW 3 KFT THIS EVENING. QPF FROM 18Z RUC IS FURTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND HAS COME INTO CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z NGM AND AVN. MEANWHILE THE ETA APPEARS TOO FAR EAST GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE PROBLEM WILL BE IN TIMING THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP DURING MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL LINGER PAST 12Z IN EASTERN ZONES...I HAVE DISCOUNTED THE ETA...SO I WILL PUT LIKELY POPS THERE WITH CHANCE POPS WEST. CAA BEHIND FRONT...AND LINGERING CLOUDS UNDER UPR LEVEL TROFFING...WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GOING UP DURING SUNDAY. IMPROVING WX SUN NITE/MON AS UPR LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. SOME HYDRO CONCERNS OVERNIGHT...AS IT APPEARS RAIN COUD BE HEAVY FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH SOME TRAINING AS PRECIP SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST. RESPONSE OF SMALLER RIVERS MUST BE WATCHED CLOSELY TONITE AND SUNDAY. OSTUNO EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION... CANADIAN AND MRF MODELS STILL SUGGEST A WEAK SYSTEM TUESDAY. THE MAIN LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF MICHIGAN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH. SYSTEM IS A BIT MOISTURE STARVED DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF MICHIGAN WITH ANY MOISTURE PRESENT ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC. GIVEN THE LOWS POSITION AND WITH LESS THAN OPTIMAL MOISTURE PCPN MAY STAY NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW. DECIDED TO DOWN PLAY THE CURRENT WORDING JUST A BIT FROM RAIN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. A SEPARATE SYSTEM APPROACHES MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REPOSITIONS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL ALLOW AN 850 FLOW FROM THE GULF AND FUEL FOR THIS SYSTEM PROVIDING A REASONABLE CHANCE OF PCPN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST CANADIAN MODEL DOES HINT AT THIS SYSTEM 12Z TUESDAY DESPITE THE NEGLECT FROM THE 00Z RUN. WILL FOLLOW THE MRF AND INCLUDE PCPN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MCINERNEY GRR...NONE. mi