FXUS63 KLSX 282018 AFDSTL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 320 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2003 .DISCUSSION... BLO NORMAL TEMPS WHICH SETTLED INTO AREA YSTDA APR TO BE IN THE OFFING ACR REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. PINNING DOWN SPECIFIC TEMP TRENDS...AND PCPN POTENTIAL FOR MON NGT-TUE...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NR TERM. TNGT WL BE THE COOLEST NGT SINCE ERY SPRING. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS MAY BRUSH E COUNTIES THIS EVE...BUT THIS PCPN...CLDS...AND GUSTY WINDS WL DMSH QUICKLY AFT SNST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPS TO SETTLE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK. DONT BLV THAT WE'LL SEE A WDSPRD KILLING FROST SINCE WE'LL KP A BIT OF MIXING...AND IN ADDITION IT APRS A BIT OF HI CLDS MAY ZIP INTO AREA DURING THE MOST CRITICAL TIME PD...JUST BFR SNRS. HWVR...SM FROST IN LO LYING AREAS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND WL PLACE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE ZNS. MDLS ARE IN GENL AGREEMENT THAT CLDS AND PCPN THRT WL BE INCR ACR AREA MON AFTN-TUE AS MSTR RETURNS NWD ACR CNTRL PLAINS AND IS LIFTED BY STG BAROCLINIC ZN...THEN ADVS EWD IN RPD WNW UPR FLOW. AS POINTED OUT BY PAH...PAST FEW MDL RUNS HV DIFFERED IN EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MAX LFT AND PCPN POTENTIAL. HWVR...PLACEMENT OF RRQ OF UPR LVL JET BY ALL MDLS WULD SUGGEST THAT BEST PCPN POTENTIAL WL BE OVR S AREAS ON TUE. THERE SHUD ALSO BE A VRY SHARP N EDGE TO THE PCPN...PROBABLY LOCATED OVR OUR N ZNS. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THIS TYPE OF PTRN OFTEN ADVS LGT PCPN E VRY QUICKLY...SO EVEN THO AMS OVR AREA IS QUITE DRY INITIALLLY WONT QUIBBLE WITH TIMING OF PCPN AS INDICATED BY POPS. CLDS IN THE MON AFTN-TUE TIME FRAME SHUD LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP SWING. MOS TEMP GUID IN GD AGREEMENT ON MINS AND THESE LK GOOD...BUT MET GUID LKS TOO WRM IN MANY AREAS FOR TUE...AND WL LEAN TWD COOLER FWC/MAV NUMBERS. PCPN SHUD MV OUT ON TUE NGT AS SCNDRY CDFNT SWEEPS SE. THIS REINFORCING SHOT OF CDAIR WL KP TEMPS BLO NORMAL HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE .IL...NONE $$ TRUETT