FXUS63 KLMK 231843 CCA
AFDSDF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
145 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2003

CHALLENGE WITH THIS CYCLE WILL BE PINNING DOWN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM SFC LOW
WHICH WILL BE MOVING FROM NRN TX/OK QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO NEAR CINCINNATI OHIO
BY 12Z MONDAY.

SEVERAL POINTS TO CONSIDER WITH THIS CYCLE WILL BE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM
THAT WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. OTHER FACTORS COME INTO PLAY ALSO
...HOWEVER...WONT GO INTO DETAIL.

IT IS A RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM...BUT...AM IMPRESSED WITH THE VERTICAL 
VELOCITIES. THE MAGNITUDE OF THAT PARAMETER ALONE INDICATES THAT A 
QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MIGHT OCCUR.

GFS AND ETA BASICLY SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLEND TO ARRIVE AT THE SHORT TERM
SOLUTION.

HV DECIDED TO LEAVE SNOW ADVISORY INTACT THAT WAS ISSUED FOR THE EVENT EARLY
ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE SNOW ADVISORY WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COUNTIES NORTH OF THE 
OHIO RIVER IN LOUISVILLE/S CWA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE 1 TO 3 INCHES AND
SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN PLACED WELL.

OVER AREAS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX 
OF PCPN WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR LESS. 

OVER THE SCENTRAL PARTS LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS PROJECTED. 
A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN MIGHT OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT...THE TEMPS
WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. 

IN VIEW OF THE PROJECTED PATH THAT THIS LOW WILL TAKE COUNTIES OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL WILL NOT BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ANY SGFNT SNOW.

DIRECTING ATTENTION BACK TO THE THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND 
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...THE HIGH ALBEDO OF THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW FROM LAST
NIGHTS STORM PASSAGE AND A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY HELD TEMPERATURES IN 
CHECK WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE INTO ERY AFTN. 

PRBLY WL HAVE TO TRIM MOS A FEW PTS FOR PROJECTED MINS TONIGHT FROM MOS
GUIDANCE.

IN THE LONG TERM:
XPCT A CHC OF SNOW OR RAIN ABOUT MID WEEK...HOWEVER...NO MAJOR STORMS ARE 
XPCTD.

.SDF...SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR ALL SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES. 

CONGER