FXUS61 KALY 190904
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
500 AM EDT WED MAY 19 2004

DISCUSSION...FRONT PASSED THRU MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND AS OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS APPEARS 
TO HAVE STALLED CLOSE TO THE BORDER OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE LOW THAT MOVED NORTH OF OUR AREA HAS SINCE MOVED EAST INTO
THE MARITIMES ROTATING THE EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT AND 
DROPPING IT SOUTH THRU NEW ENGLAND...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW
WAS DEVELOPING IN OHIO AND INDIANA ALONG THE AIRMASS BOUNDARY.
RADAR/LGHTNG PLOTS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED 
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER BETWEEM KBFD AND KELZ AND 
A FEW SHWRS WEST OF KAVP...ALL MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT.  
WELL ENTRENCHED BERMUDA HIGH EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. ACTIVE 
MCS APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE AIRMASS BOUNDARY ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND WHILE FAR AWAY FROM US IT IS 
PROBABLY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON IT AS IT GETS CLOSER OUR 
AREA LATER TODAY. 


.SHORT TERM...
THE TWO ITEMS OF MOST QUESTION ARE HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLEARING 
WILL GET...WITH THE FRONT PRETTY MUCH STALLING ON US...AND IF
THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN PA WILL CLIP OUR EXTRM 
SOUTHERN ZONES. RADAR AND SFC OBS SUGGEST THE FRONT HAS STOPPED
ANY FARTHER SOUTHWARD MOTION...AND MAY EVEN BE GETTING READY TO
START A RETURN NORTH AS A WEAK SFC LOW ADVANCES IN FROM OHIO. 
THE MODELS KEEP AN AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS CLOSE
TO THE FRONT...SO WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE 
POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. WILL 
LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE A LAST-MINUTE DECISION REGARDING THUNDER
BASED ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST. WILL
STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MAV ADJUSTED GRID FOR MAX TEMPS 
TODAY. WHILE OUR SRN ZONES MAY REMAIN IN THE WARM AIR MASS
SOMEWHAT THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE UP FOR IT AND 
THEREFORE WILL ONLY GO FOR MID 70S FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY. 

TONIGHT...SHIFTING THE FRONT SOMEWHAT NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE STALLING OUT...NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ETA DEVELOPS 
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT RETURNS TO OUR AREA
AS A WARM FRONT UNTIL THE LATE EVENING HOURS...AND THE 
CAPE...NEGATIVE LI/S...AND UVM ALL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA.  NCEP PUTS THE FRONT IN A VERY 
SIMILAR POSITION 12Z FRIDAY AS EARLY TODAY...EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH OF BOSTON TO NEW YORK CITY...THEN ACROSS 
CENTRAL PA INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND WEST TO A DEEP SFC 
LOW NEAR THE NE/CO BORDER. 

.MID TERM...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER REPLAY WITH THE WARM SECTOR 
PUSHING THE FRONT BACK AS THE SFC LOW ADVANCES NORTH AND A
SECOND SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE AIRMASS BOUNDARY NEAR 
NRN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THIS LOW RACES EASTWARD JUST NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY AS WARM...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIR 
ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.  THE AIR MASS BOUNDARY 
HOLDS OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES SUGGESTING THE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THRU THE REGION SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED...
THE AIRMASS BOUNDARY AGAIN DROPS JUST SOUTH OF US MONDAY 
NIGHT...AND REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF US EARLY INTO THE WEEK. 
LOOKS LIKE ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD STILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT
BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING CLOUDS AND
PRECIP INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20/0600Z.  
VFR/OCCASIONALLY MVFR CEILINGS THRU 13Z WILL BECOME 
GENERALLY SKC OR SCT CLOUDS AT KGFL/KALB BY AROUND NOON...
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 0600Z. KPOU WILL HAVE IFR/MVFR VSBY 
THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS 
AFTER 13Z.

.HYDRO...NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

$$

KILPATRICK