AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 945 PM EST THU NOV 6 2003 THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...TONIGHT IS NOT CLEAR CUT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS REACHED NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THE RUC BRINGS IT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY ABUNDANT LOW LAYER MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS...AND A LOT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR TO PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING. BUT THE FLOW ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS OUT OF THE NORTH...AND THE RUC FORECASTS SLIGHT DRYING IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. THE LATEST MOS IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH ON LIFR CONDITIONS AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT...AS IT KEEPS THE SURFACE WINDS UP TO PROMOTE TURBULENT MIXING DURING THE NIGHT. I THINK THE PREFERRED LOCATIONS LIKE THE TALLAHASSEE AND VALDOSTA AIRPORTS MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD EVENT LIKE LAST NIGHT. THE CURRENT PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE VERY LOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SO I WILL TONE DOWN THE MARINE FORECAST AND DELAY THE HIGHER WINDS UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. $$ FOURNIER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: ____________________________________________________________________ 240 PM EST THU NOV 6 2003 .SHORT TERM...OVERNIGHT LOW CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG CLEARED UP BY MID MORNING REPLACED BY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT EXPECT A SLIGHTLY WEAKER REPLAY OF THE FOG TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A FEW OF THE SITES WITH LOWEST CATEGORY FOG BUT KEEPS WINDS ABOVE CALM...SO NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...MAY NEED ONE LATER. WATER VAPOR IMAGES CONTINUE TO HINT AT A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH NOW HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN MS/AL. IN ANY CASE...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FOR MY CWFA WITH THIS FRONT BUT HAVE LEFT MINIMAL POPS IN OVERNIGHT AS FRONT TREKS NEARER AND ACROSS THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TODAY ARE APPROACHING RECORD VALUES FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS. WHILE THE COLD FRONT MAY MAKE IT MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE CWFA...ON SATURDAY IT WILL STALL BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH...THUS CONTINUING MINIMAL POPS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. MODEL STABILITY INDICES SAY NO THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER. .MARINE...CURRENTLY NO HIGHLIGHTS. HOWEVER...BEHIND THE FRONT...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL APPROACH 20 KT. LOOK FOR A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TO BE ISSUED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. .EXTENDED...INSTEAD OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS WAS EXPECTED A COUPLE OF RUNS AGO...NOW LOOKS LIKE A PERSISTENT BOUNDARY IN THE AREA RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF DISTURBED CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...WARM TEMPS AND MINIMAL POPS LINGERING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 86 65 83 63 / 10 10 10 10 PFN 84 66 81 62 / 10 10 10 10 DHN 84 65 78 60 / 20 10 10 10 ABY 84 64 80 60 / 10 10 10 10 VLD 86 66 82 63 / 20 10 10 10 CTY 84 66 83 65 / 30 10 10 10 .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. $$ 16 fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 900 PM EST THU NOV 6 2003 .DISCUSSION...TONIGHTS KEY IS CLOUD COVER. ENTIRE CWA CURRENTLY UNDER MID-HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS IN THE MTNS AND ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING LINE JUST REACHING WESTERN MAINE. 12Z ETA DID NOT CAPTURE THIS...SO WILL USE RUC. THIS INDICATES THESE CLOUDS CLEARING THE CWA AROUND 06Z...HOWEVER MID-CLOUDS TO BUILD ACROSS S NH AND S ME FROM 06Z - 12Z. WILL RAISE LOWS FOOTHILLS SOUTH BASED ON CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 40S. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED WILL LEAVE LOW TEMPERATURES WHERE THERE ARE IN THE MTNS. && .MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. WILL TWEAK WINDS TO NE BASED ON OBS. && .PREV DISCUSSION...FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT. CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF AREA BUT WILL THINING OUT OVERNIGHT AS LAST DECENT WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE FRIDAY. AFTER ITS PASSAGE MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY MAKING FOR A CHILLY WEEKEND. CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN TODAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS GOOD AS FAR AS SKY COVER GOES. HOWEVER THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES ON BLUSTEY WINDS THAT DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE MORE TOLERABLE AS THE WIND WILL HAVE RELAXED. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS MOSTLY ON THE TRANQUIL SIDE WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED ARRIVING WEDNESDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. && $$ APFFEL me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 830 PM CST THU NOV 6 2003 .SHORT TERM UPDATE...THRU 12Z FRIDAY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS OR TEXT THIS EVENING. RUC/18Z ETA SHOWING S/W ENERGY ROTATING AROUND/THRU UNSEASONABLY STRNG UPR TROF. EVE RAOBS IN SRN CANADA RETURNING H5 TEMPS TO -45C! THERE IS A WEAK SFC REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO NWRN MN...WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COLD TOMORROW. SOME WEAK WAA KICKING OFF SOME PATCHES OF FLRYS/--SN WHICH IS BRUSHING OUR NRN CWA. THREW SOME SCT SW-- FAR NRN CWA PER KMVX/KDLH SCT ECHOES. MUCH OF CWA CLEAR...BUT BRISK WINDS KEEPING THINGS STIRRED AND TEMPS HAVE YET TO REALLY DROP. DID BUMP MINS UP A TAD...BUT FEEL GOING FCST HAS LOWS IN RIGHT AREA. OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED SOME WIND/SKY GRIDS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. $$ BINAU mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 922 PM EST THU NOV 6 2003 .DISCUSSION... CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT THIS EVENING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONTAL ZONE IS TAPPING REMAINING INSTABILITY OF THE DAY. THE 18Z ETA FEATURES CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE INTO THE 06Z TO 09Z PERIOD OVER THE NC PIEDMONT BEFORE ALL OMEGA SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...LATEST RUC RUN REVEALS A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT TO BRIEFLY ENHANCE LIFT IN THE NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THESE WEAK FEATURES ADD UP TO CONTINUED CHC POP MENTION OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 77. 1000 TO 850 MB MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BANK UP AGAINST THE NRN NC MTNS LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT FLOW IN THE LAYER REMAINS WEAK AND NNW DIRECTION WILL BE LESS THAN ORTHOGONAL TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. GIVEN 90 TO 100% RH IN THE LAYER HOWEVER...WILL KEEP 25 TO 30 PERCENT CHC GOING OVERNIGHT IN THE UPSLOPE PREFERRED AREAS. TWEAKED MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE IN MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN SLOW PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DRYING...GENERALLY MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE. FWC MOS IS REALLY HITTING SRN PIEDMONT FOG HARD TONIGHT WHILE MAV IS LESS PESSIMISTIC. GIVEN PRESENT MOSTLY CLEAR UPSTATE SKIES AND VERY SLOW LOW LEVEL DRYING...FEEL THAT ADDING A PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGHOUT THE PIEDMONT IS WARRANTED. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ HG sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...updated NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 914 PM EST THU NOV 6 2003 .DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS GOING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN RATHER LIMITED REST OF NIGHT. SATELLITE INDICATING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SOUTH ALONG WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS SO HAVE ADDED MENTION OF FOG MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD MORNING. && RCC .PREV DISCUSSION... 230 PM EST THU NOV 6 2003 .SHORT TERM...EXPECT PRE-FRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AROUND 700 PM. THE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH HEATING AND THE APPROACHING H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RUC SHOWS THE H7 TROUGH SHIFTING WEST OF THE REGION AROUND 700 PM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN NON-SEVERE BECAUSE OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THE LATEST MSAS SHOWED LI/S AROUND -3. H85 WINDS WERE ALSO NOT TOO STRONG (NEAR 20 KNOTS). THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY. THE LOW GUIDANCE POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY APPEAR REASONABLE BECAUSE OF CURRENT COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE GFS AND ETA FORECAST OF WEAK OR NEUTRAL H85 WARM ADVECTION AND MAINLY CHANNELED H5 VORTICITY. THE ETA AND GFS INDICATE A STRONGER WEDGE PATTERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE STILL APPEARS SHALLOW WITH ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. PLAN TO LEAN TOWARD THE LOW FWC AND MAV POPS...BUT THESE POPS MAY BE TOO LOW BECAUSE MOST LOCAL ETA-BASED GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHER VALUES. PLAN TO USE THE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AND THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF AN EXPECTED WEDGE PATTERN. .LONG TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD. THE CHANCE OF RAIN MAY BE HIGHEST SUNDAY...MONDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT A CONTINUED WEDGE PATTERN EARLY AND A FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .CAE...NONE. && $$ 05 sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 230 PM EST THU NOV 6 2003 .SHORT TERM...EXPECT PRE-FRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AROUND 700 PM. THE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH HEATING AND THE APPROACHING H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RUC SHOWS THE H7 TROUGH SHIFTING WEST OF THE REGION AROUND 700 PM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN NON-SEVERE BECAUSE OF WEAK INSTABILITY. THE LATEST MSAS SHOWED LI/S AROUND -3. H85 WINDS WERE ALSO NOT TOO STRONG (NEAR 20 KNOTS). THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY. THE LOW GUIDANCE POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY APPEAR REASONABLE BECAUSE OF CURRENT COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE GFS AND ETA FORECAST OF WEAK OR NEUTRAL H85 WARM ADVECTION AND MAINLY CHANNELED H5 VORTICITY. THE ETA AND GFS INDICATE A STRONGER WEDGE PATTERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE STILL APPEARS SHALLOW WITH ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. PLAN TO LEAN TOWARD THE LOW FWC AND MAV POPS...BUT THESE POPS MAY BE TOO LOW BECAUSE MOST LOCAL ETA-BASED GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHER VALUES. PLAN TO USE THE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AND THE COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF AN EXPECTED WEDGE PATTERN. .LONG TERM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD. THE CHANCE OF RAIN MAY BE HIGHEST SUNDAY...MONDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT A CONTINUED WEDGE PATTERN EARLY AND A FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CAE 64 75 54 59 / 30 20 20 20 AGS 63 76 55 61 / 30 20 20 20 SSC 65 75 55 59 / 30 20 20 20 OGB 64 76 56 61 / 30 20 20 20 && .CAE...NONE. && $$ 05 sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 936 AM CDT THU NOV 6 2003 .DISCUSSION... ONLY REAL ISSUE TODAY IS TEMPERATURE. HOWEVER...EARLIER VISFOG DERIVED IMAGERY AND LTST VSBL SATELLITE PICS INDICATE ANOTHER MINOR ISSUE...A FEW CLOUDS ACRS NEBRASKA AND BLEEDING INTO THE MO RVR CORRIDOR. THESE CLDS IN AREA OF WAA/FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF STRUNG OUT WAVE FM SRN MANITOBA TO WY. HOWEVER...THE MAGNITUDE OF DYNAMIC FORCING SEEMS TO WKN SOMEWHAT INTO AFTN. DO NOT SEE THESE CLDS HAVING A TREMENDOUS EFFECT ON TMPS OVER BARE GROUND AREAS...AS SHUD THIN SOMEWHAT HEADING EWRD BY AFTN. NUDGED TMPS TMPS A BIT ACRS SE CLOSER TO ETA/RUC 925 HPA MIXING OVER BARE GROUND...WHILE TMPS OVER SNOW/ICECOVER APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ CHAPMAN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 953 PM CST THU NOV 6 2003 .UPDATE... COLD DRY AIR STILL ADVECTING INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS WARM RAIN BAND GRADUALLY DEVELOPS AND LIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS RAISES CONCERNS OVER A POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN EVENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES FROM ROUGHLY 1100 PM - 600 AM. HAVE NOT SEEN DEWPOINTS RECOVER ANYWHERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS MODEL FORECASTS ACROSS ANY OF OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES...IN SPITE OF THE INCREASING RAIN. IF ANYTHING...THIS HAS ONLY PULLED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO FREEZING MOST AREAS. BELIEVE THAT THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH MORE MOST AREAS...BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT REACHED FREEZING IN THAT AREA YET. ASSUMING THEY REACH FREEZING DUE TO MOISTENING FROM FALLING RAIN AS OPPOSED TO RADIATING AS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WE WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY ICE ACCUMULATION DUE TO MORE LIMITED LENGTH OF TIME OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES. RAIN BANDS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING AND DEVELOPING NORTH MORE OR LESS IN BETWEEN THE EXTENTS OF THE LATEST RUC AND MESO-ETA MODEL RUNS. SO...ADDING CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN NORTHEAST COUNTIES TONIGHT AND COOLING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AT LEAST EASTERN COUNTIES FOR NEXT FFW HOURS. ALSO HAVE INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN TO BETTER FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL EXPECTATIONS. WILL ADVISE OF POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN VIA NOWCASTS AND AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT BELIEVE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY JUST TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MCQUEEN && .PREV DISCUSSION... LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE REACHED IN THESE AREAS. SLOW WARMING CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CLOUD COVERED FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. THE LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING. STRONG JET STREAK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL BISECT THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE JET AXIS WITH A SMALLER CHANCE OF RAIN NORTHWEST OF THIS AXIS. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT WHERE IT DOES NOT RAIN. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SUB-TROPICAL JET TO REMAIN ACTIVE FROM SW TX NEWD INTO THE MS VALLEY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE FA...MAINLY SERN ZONES...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN...MORE ALONG LINES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POPS INCREASING FROM NW TO SE ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED ELY COMPONENT TO SFC WINDS STRATUS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK ALL WEEKEND AND COLD AIR DIFFICULT TO FULLY DISLODGE. CONTINUED PESSIMISTIC SKY WORDING AND COOL END OR BELOW GUIDANCE. TRANSITION LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS FLAT UPPER RIDGE PROGGED TO BECOME ANCHORED OVER DEEP SOUTH TX AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO CA/NV REGION. THIS SHOULD FORCE THE JET STREAM FURTHER NORTH WHILE MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PROMOTES LEE SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. MOIST SLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WITH PERIODS OF CIRRUS UP TOP. RAIN CHCS GO BACK TWD NIL WHILE COLD AIR FINALLY GETS SHUNTED EWD. FINALLY...AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FA DAY6...NEXT MASS OF COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH. MADE FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST NUMBERS ATTM AS A LOT WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF STRATUS BEHIND FRONT. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 05/05 tx SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 914 PM CST THU NOV 6 2003 03Z HIGH RESOLUTION BASE REFLECTIVITY IMAGES SHOWED THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BAFFIN BAY TO 40NM OFFSHORE. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THE REMAINING MWA OVERNIGHT. THE 850HPA LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SUFFICIENTLY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. THE 1000-850HPA Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE Q FIELDS ARE COINCIDENTALLY FAVORABLE AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY A WEAK 500HPA SHORTWAVE(SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MEXICO) ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WILL INCREASE POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AREAWIDE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND GRADE THEM INCREMENTALLY FROM EAST TO WEST. CRP VWP INDICATING ENOUGH WIND IN AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARRANT LOW-SCA CONDITIONS NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE AND SCEC ACROSS THE BAYS TONIGHT. WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PER MAV/RUC VALUES GIVEN THE CURRENT READINGS. && .CRP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA GMZ250-255-270-275. $$ 85/SHORT-TERM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 915 PM CST THU NOV 6 2003 .DISCUSSION...RUC 1000-500MB THICKNESS SHOWS COLD AIR MOVING INTO SOUTH TX BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING WARM AIR ACROSS SHALLOW COOLER AIR ACROSS NORTH TX WITH OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS POOLING. ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHWEST TX ALONG 850MB THERMAL FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH...MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE COLD FRONT JUST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST MESOETA AND GFS SPLIT ON INTRUSION OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT INTO DEEP SOUTH TX. STILL BELIEVE MESOETA HAS BETTER HANDLE BUT WILL COMPROMISE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND ADJUST LOWS TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. && .AVIATION....1/4SM FG W/BKN007 FORMED THIS AM IN HRL...WITH MFE HAVING NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS AND BRO INDICATING 3SM BR DURING THE EARLY MRNG. WITH A WEAK CF SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH OVR THE NRN COUNTIES TNGT...AS SEEN BY A LONG LOOP OF MSAS DWPTS/WNDS/MSLP...FG AND -DZ SHUD BE THE RESULT DURING THE EARLY MRNG. MESOETA TIME/HEIGHT SHOWS INCREASING MSTR FM SFC TO H750 FM INIT THRU 00Z SAT. MESOETA DOES NOT HAVE A HOLD ON DRY AMS ENTRY...BRINGING IN 64 DEG F DWPTS BY 12Z FRI...AVN PROGS 69 DEG F AT THAT TIME. OUR CURRENT FLOW REGIME AND REAL TIME DATA WOULD SKEW TOWARD A WETTER AVN AS MDL OF CHOICE. WILL BRING IN LOW STRATUS DECK PRIOR TO DAWN ...ALONG WITH SOME STRATIFORM PCPN. BELIEVE IFR CIGS/FG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MRNG HOURS...ESPECIALLY SAT AM. && .MARINE...INVERTED SFC TROF HAS MVD THRU BUOY020...WITH WEST WIND 2H AGO...THEN CALM...AND NE FLOW AT 4 KTS NOW. SEAS DOWN TO 2 FT. GWW INITS WELL WITH OUR OFFSHORE WX CONDITIONS. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY DURING THIS MARINE FCST PD. RATHER WEAK NE FLOW XPCTD OVR ADJ GULF AS CF DECIDES HOW FAR TO PUSH. BY LATE FRI...4 TO 5 FOOTERS MV INTO THE LWR TX GULF WATERS FM THE NORTH...FM WINDS SHIFT NORTH OF OUR MARINE ZNS. BY 18Z SAT...WAVE HEIGHTS PROGD TO RISE TO 1.69 METERS (NEAR 6 FT)...THEN 2 METERS (6.56 FT) AROUND 6 PM SAT. WAVE HEIGHT FALL AFTER EARLY SUN AM. SLGT CHC SHRAS FRI/FRI NGT...THEN GOOD CHC SAT...AS FNT SLOWLY MVS THRU AND MSTR AND LLVL CONVERGENCE CULMINATES OVR THE LWR TX GULF WATERS. SUM SHRAS LINGER ON MON...AS BOUNDARY LAYER WNDS DON'T RECOVER TO ONSHORE UNTIL LATE MON. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...CASTILLO MARINE/AVIATION...PHILO MESO...MARTINEZ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 915 PM EST THU NOV 6 2003 THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT NOW JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER...MARKED CLOSELY BY THE NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS PER COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY. CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS EVENING...GIVEN THE STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT...LINE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE. WILL UPDATE THE FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID AND UPPER LAYERS DRYING OUT QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE BUILDING SUBSIDENCE...THOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING WITH THE CAA AT LOWER LEVELS (BELOW 800 MB). MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH DIMINISHING MOISTURE (ICE SEEDING) ABOVE THE -10C ISOTHERM...WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AT MOIST OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND N/NE WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MARKED MOSTLY BY THE GRADUAL CAA RATHER THAN RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS EXPECT COOLER TEMPS N AND NW AND WARMEST S AND SE. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND MOST RECENT MOS GUIDANCE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH (IF ANY) CHANGES WITH TEMPS OVERNIGHT. MARINE...BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND COORDINATION WITH PHI... WILL REMOVE SCA HEADLINES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE TMRW NIGHT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SURGE. .AKQ... .MD...NONE. .VA...NONE. .NC...NONE. HURLEY PREVIOUS AFD BELOW... --------------------------------------------------------------------- .OVERVIEW...THE UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS THE REGION HAS ENJOYED DURING THE PAST WK...WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL RDGS OVR THE NEXT WK. .SHORT TERM...THE FRNTL BNDRY...WHICH WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR...WAS EXTENDING FM THE LWR MD ERN SHR SW TO JUST S OF PTB...THEN CONTINUED INTO WRN NC. A COUPLE OF WVS OF LO PRES WERE MOVNG ENE ALNG THE BNDRY...WITH THE MAIN ONE NR DAN. THE FRNT WILL SINK SE OF THE AREA AND OFF THE CST TNGT AND FRI. WILL WORD TNGT AS SHRAS/TSRAS LIKELY THIS EVENG...AND A CHC OF RAIN AFTR MIDNGT...AS FRNT SHUD MOVE JUST SE OF NE NC JUST AFTR MIDNGT. WILL MAINTAIN SML CHC OF R- OVR EXTRM SE VA/NE NC FRI MORNG...OTHRWISE SKY SHUD THEN BECOME MSTLY SNY N AND PRTLY SNY S DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE UPR MIDWEST TO RIGHT OVR NRN PA BY SUN MORNG...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE E AND OFF THE CST LATER SUN INTO TUE. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT OF THE HI IN A ZNL 500 MB FLO...LUKS AS IF THE WKND WILL NOT BE AS SNY AS FIRST THOUGHT. IN FACT...LATER SUN INTO TUE CUD BE RATHER CLDY ACRS REGION (ESPLY SRN CNTIES)...AS A WK COOL AIR DAMMING SITUATION SETS UP. .EXTENDED...HI MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR TUE AND WED...ALLOWING A MILDER S/SW FLO TO DEVELOP AGAIN. THIS SHUD RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE. A COLD FRNT WILL APPROACH LATE THU...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP DRY AS EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN. .PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS... SBY 55 63 40 53 / 70 10 00 10 OXB 54 63 43 53 / 70 10 00 10 WAL 55 64 41 53 / 70 10 00 10 FVX 53 63 39 54 / 70 10 00 10 RIC 55 65 42 55 / 70 10 00 10 PTB 56 66 43 55 / 70 10 00 10 AKQ 59 65 43 56 / 60 10 00 10 PHF 60 65 44 55 / 60 10 00 10 ORF 60 65 49 55 / 60 30 00 10 ECG 61 65 48 57 / 60 30 00 10 $$ GINGRICH va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 223 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2003 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CLOUD COVER/HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND PLUS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FLOW HAS ALSO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED IN THIS SAME AREA. TROUGH ALONG WEST COAST STILL HAS TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS IN IT. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RACING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN IS SPREADING MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS WARMED AND DRIED UP SOME. AT JET LEVEL... MODELS ARE A LITTLE LOW ON SPEEDS NEAR 140-150 WEST. OTHERWISE... MODELS DID WELL. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE TOO HIGH WITH HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. GFS WAS DOING THE BEST...AND WAS ALSO MATCHING UP WELL WITH THE SATELLITE. AT LOW LEVELS...GFS HAD PRESSURES TOO HIGH THROUGH 06Z. ETA WAS HANDLING THE WIND FIELD VERY WELL. MODELS WERE TOO DRY AT THE SURFACE WITH THE GFS THE WORST. RUC WAS DOING BETTER. MODELS DID BETTER WITH THE TEMPERATURES AT 850 TODAY...BUT WERE STILL TOO WARM OVER US. THEY WERE A LITTLE BETTER TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. ONCE AGAIN WILL GO WITH GFS AT MID/UPPER LEVELS AND ETA FOR POSITION OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES...WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...THINK GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE STRATUS. FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET AND APROACHING SHORTWAVE THICKENING UP MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. JET MOVES OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THEN A SOUTHERN JET SEGMENT MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY. WIND FIELD STARTS OUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THEN BECOMES SOUTHEAST. MODEL MAX TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE MUCH CLOSER TODAY WITH THE ETA COOLING OFF AND THE GFS WARMING UP. BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS AND UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD...WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV/GFS 2 METER. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND WILL DEFINITELY SEE STRATUS SPREAD OVER THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY FORECASTS ARE HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME FOG AS WELL. MODELS BRING IN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TONIGHT. ETA DOES NOT GENERATE LITTLE IF ANY LIFT WITH MORE LIFT BY THE GFS. GFS LOOKS TO BE OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION AND WILL NOT PUT IN ANY AT THIS TIME EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN EASTERN COLORADO. FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...JET SETUP FOR THE DAY IS DIFFERENT BETWEEN GFS AND ETA. GFS BRINGS IN A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...AND THEN PUTS THE SEGMENT ON TOP OF US BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE ETA HAS AREA IN LEFT REAR QUADRANT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...AND THEN LINES UP A WEST TO EAST SEGMENT NEAR THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING TO THE WEST OF US. SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVES THROUGH. WILL INCREASE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY TO CHANCE. WHATEVER JET DYNAMICS IS IN THE AREA AT 00Z IS GONE BY 06Z...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE. WAS INITIALLY GOING TO TAKE OUT PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT WILL KEEP IN AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 06Z. BIG DISCREPANCY IN MAXES STILL EXISTS FROM YESTERDAY. WITH CLOUD COVER AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FIELD. WOULD TEND TO BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE THAT WARM. WILL TEND TO GO CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE MAXES. FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THE ETA HAS RIDGING TRANSITIONING INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE MAIN JET TO THE NORTH OF US. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH BRINGING IN THE RIDGING AND PUTS IN A RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT FOR A SHORT TIME DURING THE DAY. THE MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE NIGHT. IF BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY FORECASTS ARE RIGHT...WILL END UP WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT FOR MAXES. THE WESTERN PORTION WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH EASTERN SECTIONS THE COOLEST. WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...AND GRADIENT TEMPERATURES WEST TO EAST. JET DYNAMICS COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD AT THIS TIME. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 430 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2003 .DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW INTENSIFYING UPR TROF ACRS CNTRL NAMERICA WITH FAIRLY INTENSE UPR SHRTWV DIGGING SE OVR LK WINNIPEG. ASSOCIATED SFC-H85 TROF/COLD FNT NOTED ACRS NW MN AT 03Z. 00Z INL SDNG QUITE DRY (PWAT 0.09 INCH) WITH INVERTED V LOOK TO SDNG BLO SHARP INVRN AT H8. 00Z H85 TEMP AT INL DOWN TO -18C. EVEN WITH THE INITIALLY DRY AIR FLOWING ACRS LK SUP IN ADVANCE OF MAIN SFC-H85 TROF/COLD FNT...INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT (LK TEMP ARND 6C...GIVING DELTA-T OF 20-24C) TO GENERATE WELL DEFINED LES BANDS OVER WRN LK ACRS KEWEENAW INTO CNTRL LK SUP IN WSW FLOW REGIME AHD OF DIGGING UPR SHRTWV/TROF. REFLECTIVITY AS HI AS 32DBZ WITHIN STRONGEST BAND SHOWING UP ON 0.5 8 BIT REFLECTIVITY ACRS CNTRL LK SUP. ENHANCED CLD NOTED OVER NRN MN IN LEFT EXIT OF ASSOCIATED 80KT H5 WIND MAX WITH SOME -SN IN ADVANCE OF SFC TROF...AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS NO DOUBT HELPING TO INTENSIFY LES GENERATION. DESPITE DRY AIRMASS ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS...SOME -SN BANDS/FLURRIES NOTED ACRS THE WRN CWA EVEN IN WSW FLOW AND ABSENCE OF ANY LK MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION. 00Z YQD SDNG MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF VERY COLD AIRMASS FOLLOW ING THE COLD FNT AND SHOWS A MOISTER PROFILE (IN A RELATIVE SENSE BECAUSE PWAT THERE IS 0.07 INCH) BLO INVRN AT H625. YQD H7/H85 TEMP A FRIGID -32C/ -24C...AND SFC TEMPS ACRS SCNTRL CAN AT 03Z ALREADY 0 TO +5F. 00Z ETA ANALYSIS SDNG FOR CYQD COMPARES VERY FAVORABLY WITH OBSVD SDNG. BUT DWPTS ALSO FALLING SHARPLY N OF LK WINNIPEG ATTM...DOWN TO -10F AT CYNE AT 03Z. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE LES TRENDS/AMTS AND GOING HEADLINES. GIVEN CONSISTENT ETA FCST AND FVRBL COMPARISON BTWN ETA F0 SDNG AT YQD AND OBSVD PROFILE...DECIDED TO FOLLOW HIER RESOLUTION ETA FCST FOR DETAILS OF THIS EVENT. FOR TDAY...MODELS SHOW WSW FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE NW AFTER PASSAGE OF SFC-H85 TROF THIS MRNG AND AS H5 SHRTWV MOVES BY TO N OF CWA. XCPT FOR THIS MRNG IN ADVANCE AND COINCIDENT WITH TROF PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS...ANY PCPN WL BECOME PURE LES. XPCT A BRIEF PD OF LK ENHANCED SN COINCIDENT WITH TROF PASSAGE ACRS THE NW ZNS IN ADVANCE OF FALLING H7 TEMPS. THEN MOST IMPRESSIVE PURE LES BANDS WL SHIFT S FM THE KEWEENAW INTO ONTONAGON/SRN CMX/BARAGA COUNTIES... WITH STRG WNDS (H85 WNDS FCST TO 30-40KTS) PUSHING THE BANDS WELL INLAND INTO THE HURON MTNS/NW IRON COUNTY. ALTHOUGH HEAVIER SN WL SHIFT S OF KEWEENAW/NRN CMX COUNTIES WITH SHORTER FETCH/ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR NOW MOVG OVER LK WINNIPEG...CONDITIONS WL REMAIN HARSH THERE WITH STRG NW WND/CONTD BLSN...AND WL CONT WRNG THRU THE DAY. QUESTION AS TO WHETHER TO UPGRADE GOING LES/BLSN ADVY TO SOME KIND OF WRNG FOR ONTONAGON/SRN CMX/BARAGA ZNS. LES CHART SUGS 8 INCHES OF SN WL FALL IN 12Z HOURS. CONSIDERING FCST ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR LATER IN THE DAY OVER WESTERN LK SUP AND RELATIVELY SHORT FETCH ACRS THE WRN LK...SN AMTS MAY BE LESS THAN CHART SUGS...SO WL MAINTAIN HI END ADVY FOR THESE ZNS. SN INTENSITY WL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL FARTHER INLAND AS H85 WNDS FCST TO DIMINISH. ALGER/LUCE/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT WL SEE JUST FLURRIES/SCT -SHSN IN THE MRNG IN ADVANCE OF TROF...BUT THEN HEAVIER SQUALLS WL MOVE INLAND BY LATE AFTN MAINLY E OF MUNISING AS FLOW BECOMES MORE 310. GOGEBIC/MQT COUNTIES APPEAR WL BE TOO SHADOWED WITH FCST 310 FLOW TO WARRANT A HEADLINE. SCNTRL ZNS WL SEE NOTHING MORE THAN PSUNNY SKIES/FLURRIES. OVER THE E...INVRN COMES DOWN FRI NGT...BUT REMAINS 6-7K FT WITH H85 THERMAL TROF (-17C) STILL UPSTREAM. FOR DELTA T > 20C AND FCST INVRN HGT...LES CHART SHOWS UP TO 4 INCHES/6 HRS. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM DRIER AIR SHOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON SN GROWTH/ACCUM POTENTIAL...ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW FVRBL SN GROWTH TEMPS REMAINING WITHIN MIXED LYR. WIND SPEED ALSO FCST TO DIMINSH AND ALLOW LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF SN BANDS...HELPING TO MODIFY COLD/DRY NATURE OF AIR. ETA SUGS CNVGC BTWN WSW LAND BREEZE OVER THE LAND CWA AND MORE WNW GRADIENT FLOW OVER LK SUP WL ALSO INCRS FRI NGT...INTENSIFYING LIKELY DOMINANT LES BAND. ALSO XPCT HI SN/WATER RATIOS. ON THE OTHER HAND...WITH INCRSG ACYC FLOW/HIER MSLP APRNT... WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT WITH TIME AND FCST SDNGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL SHEAR DVLPS EVEN WITHIN THE MIXED LYR AFT 06Z. POTENTIAL NEGATIVE ADJUSTMENTS TO CHART FCST APPEAR TO BALANCE THE POSITIVES...SO DECIDED TO GO WITH EXPLICIT LES CHART FCST AMTS UP TO 8 INCHES IN 12 HR FRI NGT PD WHERE ETA FCST SHOWS PERSISTENT H95 CNVGC E OF MUNISING. SO HAVE UPGRADED GOING WATCH TO LWR GRADE WRNG FOR ALGER/LUCE/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS EVENT FIRST LK EFFECT SN OF THE YEAR AND BLSN WL BE AN AGGRAVATING FACTOR AT LEAST THRU MIDNGT TNGT. XPCT DRY AIR/INCRSG ACYC FLOW TO HAVE SGNFT IMPACT OVER THE WRN ZNS AND TO DIMINISH SN AMTS BLO FCST LES CHART AMTS. CONSIDERED EXTENDING GOING ADVY FOR ONTONAGON COUNTY INTO FRI NGT TO ACCOUNT FOR H95 CNVCG BULLSEYE ETA PAINTS OVER THAT COUNTY...BUT WL MAINTAIN GOING FCST AND ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO SEE IMPACT OF DRYING. DCRSG WND SPEEDS WL LIMIT ACCUMULATION ACRS SRN CMX/ BARAGA/MQT. ALTHOUGH ANY LINGERING LO CLD WL DSPT ACRS THE SCNTRL... SOME PTCHY AC ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHRTWV COMING IN FM THE NW WL LIKELY LINGER. TEMPS AWAY FM LK SUP WL FALL BLO 10F WITH LO UPSTREAM DWPTS. XPCT LINGERING LES TO DIMINISH ON SAT UNDER STEADILY RISING H5 HGTS/ MSLP. IN FACT...AS HI CENTER IN THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD GRB BY LATE IN THE DAY AND WINDS BACK TO MORE W...MOST PLACES WL SEE AFTN SUNSHINE. THE CLOUDIEST PLACES WL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ERN ALGER COUNTY...WHERE -SHSN/FLURRIES WL LINGER ALL DAY. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUM WL BE UNDER ADVY THRESHOLD AS CORE OF DRIER AIR MOVES OVHD. RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND INCRSG H85 TEMPS (ETA/GFS FCST READINGS UP TO -7C AT IWD AND -13C AT ERY BY 00Z SUN) WL ALLOW FOR HIER TMAX. ETA FCST SNDGS/MOS FCST QUITE CONSISTENT AND SEEM RSNBL. TRANQUIL PATTERN WL CONT SAT NGT WITH HI PRES EDGING SLOWLY E ACRS THE SCNTRL LKS UNDER RISING HTS. DESPITE MOCLR SKIES...RETURN SW FLOW WL PREVENT MINS FM FALLING TO DWPT...BUT STILL PREFER LWR GFS/ETA MOS GUIDANCE FOR MINS GIVEN DRYNESS OF AIRMASS. COORDINATED WITH APX. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. WINTER STORM WARNING TDAY MIZ001-003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TDAY MIZ002-004-084. WINTER STORM WRNG THIS AFTN AND TNGT MIZ006-007-085. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 350 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2003 .DISCUSSION... IR IMAGERY SHOWING BREAKS DEVELOPING IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS AM...AND LATEST LL RH FIELDS FROM RUC SUGGEST THAT SKIES BECOME MSUNNY EVEN IN SUSQ VALLEY BY MID MORNING. SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER GRT LKS PROGGED TO BRING THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS SEASON OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TYPICAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. MOS HIGHS FROM M40S NW MTNS TO M50S LOWER SUSQ SEEM REASONABLE FOR THIS AFTN. COLD NW FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NW MTNS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHARP INVERSION AT 850MB IN MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT. IN FACT WILL PROBABLY MENTION SCT "FLURRIES" RATHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS...AS ACCUMS DONT SEEM LIKELY. CORE OF COLDEST AIR SWINGS THRU PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...850 TEMPS ARND -10C WILL CAP AFTN TEMPS IN THE 30S OVER THE MTNS...AND JUST L40S IN SUSQ VALLEY. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE STATE SAT NITE...PROVIDING THE CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DRY AIR NECESSARY FOR VERY COLD TEMPS. SUSPECT COLDER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH WILL FALL TO AROUND 10F...WHILE THE HILLTOPS AND URBAN AREAS OF SOUTHERN PA DIP TO THE L20S. 12Z MREF DATA SUGGESTS FAIR WX SUN AND MON...AS AREA OF HI PRES SITS ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DONE...WILL DROP MENTION OF PRECIP FOR MONDAY. IN EXTENDED FCST...S/WV TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN CONUS DURING MID WEEK...BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ADVECT MUCH MILDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUES AND WED. .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. $$ FITZGERALD pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 908 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2003 .OVERVIEW...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW NEARLY ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SERN STATES. THERE ARE A FEW SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE JET N OF THE AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT A STRATUS DECK PERSISTS ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED. WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE NNE AT 10 KT OR LESS. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING SUPPORTS CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST. PW OF 1.39 INCHES IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL RATHER MOIST BELOW 850 MB. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE FRONT IS BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE AREA AND INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE. .UPDATE...WILL REMOVE MORNING FOG WORDING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS ON TRACK. .MARINE...GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL CHANGE MUCH FROM THE CURRENT ANALYSIS. WILL THEREFORE TWEAK WIND SPEEDS DOWN JUST A BIT. FORECAST SEAS LOOK GOOD. WOOL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ***************************************************************** 245 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2003 .OVERVIEW... LONG LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWS UPPER HIGH NEARLY CENTERED OVER GULF AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ERN USA BEHIND A VORT MAX THAT IS MOVING OFF THE E COAST. 05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR NW CWFA. FRONT RECENTLY WENT THROUGH DOTHAN AL WITH A SHIFT TO NW WINDS AND RAPIDLY INCREASING VISIBILITIES. LOCAL VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW STRENGTHENING NW FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE EVEN AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WE ARE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING. THIS WAS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION. .SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEPT LOW POPS AND FAVORED GFS BASED SURFACE WINDS OVER ETA. .MARINE...EXPECT WINDS TO REACH SCEC CRITERIA TONIGHT AND SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. .FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED. .EXTENDED... SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ETA...AND EVEN GFS...SHOW COOL WEDGE PUSHING INTO THE NE CWFA SUNDAY...SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR OUR NERN ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. THANKS FOR COORDINATION FFC. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 83 64 77 60 / 10 10 20 00 PFN 80 63 78 60 / 10 10 20 00 DHN 79 61 75 56 / 10 10 20 00 ABY 79 60 71 54 / 10 10 20 20 VLD 83 64 75 59 / 10 10 20 10 CTY 83 66 79 63 / 10 10 20 00 .TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. $$ TJT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1040 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2003 .DISCUSSION... SNOW/BLSN/HEADLINES ARE UPDATE ISSUES STRONG NW FLOW OVERTAKING UPR LAKES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING N/NE OF LK SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE HELPED LIFT INVERSION HTS IN ALREADY UNSTABLE LAKE EFFECT REGIME. H85 TEMP ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPS OF -10C AT KAPX BUT -20C AT KINL...RESULTING IN LAKE-H85 DELTA T/S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AROUND 22C AND LAKE INDUCED CAPES NEAR 900J/KG. THUS FAR...MOST SNOW REPORTED WAS NW OF PELKIE WITH A 12HR SNOWFALL NEAR 4 INCHES. OTHERWISE...SNOW REPORTS BLO 3 INCHES ALTHOUGH INCH/HR SNOW OBSERVED RECENTLY IN GRAND MARAIS UNDERNEITH ONE OF MANY DOMINANT BANDS OVR ERN LK SUPERIOR. SAT LOOP/RADAR SHOWING ORGANIZATION TO SNOWBANDS OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR MINIMAL TO THIS POINT...OUTSIDE OF DOMINANT BAND COMING ONSHORE NEAR ONTONAGON AND HOUGHTON/HANCOCK. RUC ANALYSIS SUPPORTED BY 12Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWS SOME SHEAR BLO 950MB AND THAT MAY HAVE HINDERED ORGANIZATION TO THIS POINT. IMAGINE VERY LOW SFC TD NEAR 0F UPSTREAM OF LK SUPERIOR ARE ALSO HINDERING ORGANIZATION. RUC SHOWS WINDS STAYING UP IN 20-30MPH RANGE THIS AFTN BUT SNOW BAND INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED FOR REST OF EVENT. BASED ON CURRENT SNOW REPORTS WELL BLO WARNING...WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE NW DIRECTION...AND LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING ABOVE H9-H85 LAYER TRENDS WILL DOWNGRADE KEWEENAW COUNTY TO LES/BLSN ADVY FOR REST OF AFTN. ALTHOUGH MAJORITY OF NRN HOUGHTON COUNTY WILL SEE BLO WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL A SMALL PORTION WELL S OF HOUGHTON (PAINESDALE TO NISULA) SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE NMRS HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AND BLSN...SO WILL KEEP WARNING GOING FOR THEM. THINK ERN ZONES HAVE MUCH BETTER SHOT OF SIG LES. LONGER RESIDENCE TIME AND DEEPER MOISTURE/UVM FM PASSING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED MULTIPLE DOMINANT BANDS TO FORM IN WRLY FLOW. MQT 88D/IR SAT DEPICTS TOPS ON THIS CONVECTION TO 15KFT. WINDS SHIFTING TO NW AS SHORTWAVE PASSES WILL ALLOW PORTIONS OF THESE DOMINANT BANDS (SNOW AT LEAST 1"/HR AND SQUALLS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40MPH) TO MOVE ONSHORE AND/OR NW-SE ORIENTED BANDS TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP WARNING UP FOR AFTN/TONIGHT FOR THOSE AREAS. ALTHOUGH NOW BEST SNOW RATES ARE OCCURRING EAST OF MUNISING...SWITCH TO NW FLOW LATER TODAY WILL BRING HEAVIER SNOW BANDS INTO WETMORE/MELSTRAND/MCMILLAN. STRONGER WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SCT-NMRS SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR E AS NRN DICKINSON COUNTY INTO ERN MQT COUNTY. DESPITE VERY LITTLE OVER WATER RESIDENCE TIME EVEN KIWD SEEING FORMIDABLE SNOW BAND OVERHEAD ATTM...BUT PLAN NO ADVY FOR THEM AS CALLS REVEAL ONLY UP TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW WITH AREAS OF BLSN. MAX T GRIDS LOOK FINE COMPARED TO CURRENT OBS ALTHOUGH MAY TRIM TEMPS A BIT FOR WRN HALF. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON MIZ003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN MIZ002>004-084. WINTER STORM WRNG THIS AFTN AND TNGT MIZ006-007-085. && $$ JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 940 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2003 .DISCUSSION... .UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING STATOCUMULUS FIELD IS ADVECTING SOUTHEAST AND THEN DIMINISHING. 12Z RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWS THE SUBSIDENCE AT 650 HPA OVER KOKX DOWN TO 850 HPA OVER ALBANY. WITH NW FLOW...EXPECT THE STATOCUMULUS TO CONTINUE IT'S DISSIPATING TREND. LATEST NCEP MODEL GUIDANCE CONFIRMS THIS. ADJUSTING CLOUDS TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN NDFD FOR TRENDS. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY (2-3 DEGREES F) BASED ON LAMP MOS DATA AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEN IN UPPER AIR. ALSO, LATEST RUC DATA FITS RAOB DATA BETTER AND REFLECTS THE 2-3 DEGREE DECREASE IN TEMPS. SPS CONTINUES THE COLD TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW PARTS OF NEW YORK CITY. JET CIRRUS SEEN OVER KY AS OF 14 UTC WILL REACH REGION AROUND 22 UTC BASED ON CURRENT ADVECTION RATE OF 60 KTS. *************** PREVIOUS 335 AM DISCUSSION ******************** FCST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND TEMPS TONIGHT THRU MONDAY...AND PCPN CHCS DURING NEXT WEEK. CAA BEGINS IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT AS SECONDARY FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. COULD BE SOME SCT/BKN AC AND SOME SCT LOWER CU WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT NOTHING MORE. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP MARKEDLY. MINS DROP INTO THE 30S CWA-WIDE TONIGHT WITH SOME UPPER 20S INLAND. NOT WORRIED ABOUT FROST TONIGHT IN THE NYC AREA AS WINDS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP THINGS MIXED. EXPECT M/SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY...BUT THE FUN WILL BE OVER AS FAR AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS GO. STRONG CAA WILL BE THE RULE AS 850 TEMPS DROP TO AS LOW AS -12C. GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST 25-30KT OR SO. DESPITE THE GOOD MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...FULL POTENTIAL ONLY SUPPORTS MAXES IN THE 38-45F RANGE. 00Z ETA FOUS T1'S SAT AFTN TOP OUT AT +2C...WHICH SUPPORTS LOWER 40S IN THE CITY AND LONG ISLAND. WINDCHILL READINGS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DOSE OF NOVEMBER REALITY...WITH THOSE READINGS MAINLY IN THE U20S-30S DURING THE AFTN. COLD NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN. RADIATING CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL...WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP A LITTLE. NEVERTHELESS...STILL EXPECT 20S CWA-WIDE...WITH THE NORMALLY COLDEST SPOTS INLAND POSSIBLY SEEING SOME UPPER TEENS. SKIES SHOULD GO CLR AROUND SUNSET SAT. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SHOT AT FREEZING TEMPS IN THE CITY/NASSAU COUNTY...SO WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE POSSIBILITY. ANOTHER COLD DAY SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER MAXES THAN SATURDAY. AIRMASS WILL MODIFY SOME...BUT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MIXING AFTER COLD START AS SFC HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD. 40S WILL BE THE RULE ONCE AGAIN FOR MAXES UNDER CLEAR SKIES...WITH SOME U30S POSSIBLE INLAND. WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR-CALM THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL WARMER THAN SATURDAY. THINK SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN SAT NIGHT AS WINDS ARE CALM AND TEMPS GET A HEAD START ON PLUMMETING B/C OF ALREADY COLD DAYTIME MAXES. WITH LOW SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXPECT TEMPS TO START FALLING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN PLUMMET DURING THE EVENING. IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS WILL BE MET...WITH CALM WINDS, CLOUDLESS SKIES, AND VERY DRY DEWPOINT READINGS. SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPS WON'T REACH THE TEENS WELL INLAND AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LI...AND THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY INVADING THIN CIRRUS TO KEEP MINS UP SOME...BUT DO NOT SEE THAT HAPPENING AT THIS POINT. HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY...ALLOWING A GRADUAL WARMUP. SKIES STILL M/SUNNY. ECM PROGS WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH HERE SOMETIME TUE. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT WAA PCPN LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN 20/30 POPS. I DO NOT LIKE THE GFS SOLN FOR TUE IN DEVELOPING A SFC LOW OFF THE COAST AND MOVING IT NORTH. SEEMS RATHER SPURIOUS GIVEN THE STRONG ZONAL UPPER FLOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST WED/THU. BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE WED NIGHT/THURS ACCORDING TO THE NEARLY UNBEATABLE ECMWF AS FAR AS DAYS 4-7 GOES. ***************** END OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ********************* && .MARINE...WINDS PICK UP TO MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVERNIGHT ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE INCREASE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL RAISE THIS ADVISORY WITH 300 PM ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT BY SAT EVENING WITH COASTAL WATERS SEAS FALLING SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOVES OVERHEAD SUN. && .AVIATION...VFR VIS WITH MVFR CIG ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS STRATOCU MOVES SE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. SCT CLOUDS WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN 18Z-19Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. && .HYDROLOGY...NO PROBLEMS AS WE EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NJ...NONE. NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1026 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2003 .UPDATE... FCST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATING MAINLY TO REMOVE MORNING/AFTN/BECOMING REFERENCES AS SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSUNNY TO SUNNY MOST CWA AS FCST. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER LAUREL HIGHLANDS WHERE VIS IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW PERSISTENT BAND OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP THEM PSUNNY MOST OF DAY. NO CHANGES BEYOND FIRST PD. GARTNER && .PREV DISCUSSION... IR IMAGERY SHOWING BREAKS DEVELOPING IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS AM...AND LATEST LL RH FIELDS FROM RUC SUGGEST THAT SKIES BECOME MSUNNY EVEN IN SUSQ VALLEY BY MID MORNING. SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER GRT LKS PROGGED TO BRING THE COLDEST AIR YET THIS SEASON OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TYPICAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. MOS HIGHS FROM M40S NW MTNS TO M50S LOWER SUSQ SEEM REASONABLE FOR THIS AFTN. COLD NW FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NW MTNS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHARP INVERSION AT 850MB IN MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT. IN FACT WILL PROBABLY MENTION SCT "FLURRIES" RATHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS...AS ACCUMS DONT SEEM LIKELY. CORE OF COLDEST AIR SWINGS THRU PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...850 TEMPS ARND -10C WILL CAP AFTN TEMPS IN THE 30S OVER THE MTNS...AND JUST L40S IN SUSQ VALLEY. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE STATE SAT NITE...PROVIDING THE CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DRY AIR NECESSARY FOR VERY COLD TEMPS. SUSPECT COLDER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH WILL FALL TO AROUND 10F...WHILE THE HILLTOPS AND URBAN AREAS OF SOUTHERN PA DIP TO THE L20S. 12Z MREF DATA SUGGESTS FAIR WX SUN AND MON...AS AREA OF HI PRES SITS ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DONE...WILL DROP MENTION OF PRECIP FOR MONDAY. IN EXTENDED FCST...S/WV TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN CONUS DURING MID WEEK...BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD ADVECT MUCH MILDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUES AND WED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. && $$ pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 918 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2003 .DISCUSSION... CNTR OF SFC RIDGE IN WRN ND THIS MORNING WITH WK SECONDARY FRONT CLEAR OF CWA ERLR. STG SHALLOW CAA UNDERWAY...BULK INTO AREAS OF I 29. TMPS APPEAR TO BE MAIN ISSUE AGAIN TDA. RAOBS TO N AS WELL AS ETA/RUC DO NOT SUPPORT TMPS QUITE TO WHERE THEY ARE CRNTLY IN FCST. LOOKS LIKE MIXING TO ARND 925 HPA OVER BARE GROUND AREAS. WITH SHALLOW CD PUSH AND REALLY POOR MIXING OVER SNOWCOVER...EXPECT TMPS NO WARMER THAN YDA FM K9V9 TO KHON. SOME LOWER CLDS IN WK CONVERGENCE FM SWRN ND INTO NCTNRL SD...AND GETS CLOSE TO NWRN CWA. EXPECT A LITTLE SC TO WARM SIDE OF SNOW/NO SNOW BNDRY...BUT MSTR MARGINAL FOR ANY MORE THAN A HIER SCT. UPDATED GRIDS SENT...AND ZFP MOMENTARILY...MAINLY FOR MINOR COOLING. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ CHAPMAN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1028 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2003 .UPDATE... VERY DEEP MOISTURE INDICATED ON 12Z SOUNDING. SHOULD SEE SOLID CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE. RUC SHOWING RAIN AREA PRETTY MUCH WHERE AREA OF RAIN IS...NW HALF OF CWA. CLEARING OF RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM THE WEST...WITH NEXT BATCH OF RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL EVENING HOURS. N TO NE WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL PREVENT MUCH TEMP RISES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES MAY RISE... WHICH WOULD YIELD LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. NO UPDATE NEEDED. && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 07 la