####018004738#### FXUS61 KCTP 121649 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1149 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009 .SYNOPSIS... VERY GUSTY...POSSIBLY DAMAGING...WINDS AND STEADY OR DROPPING TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND HELP CALM THE WINDS. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LOW CAUGHT IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR COLD RAIN ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER TROF AND SFC LOW ARE LIFTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LEAVING PA IN GUSTY POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAIN FCST FACTOR INTO THE EARLY AFTN. OVERALL WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING...ESPECIALLY THE GUSTS...BUT WITH REPORTED RECENT GUSTS GREATER THAN 40MPH /NEAR 50 HERE AT THE OFFICE/ AND IN EXCESS OF 50MPH ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE...AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY AFTN. TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTN. ONLY THE SE WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COULD ESCAPE THE NEG TREND. BUT THEY WILL ALSO HAVE THE WORST TIME WITH THE WINDS - AS THEY COULD TAP THE 65+KT WINDS UP AROUND 8H DEPENDING ON JUST HOW DEEPLY THEY CAN MIX. PER LATEST BUFKIT PROFILES FROM MESO MDLS...EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE SNOW OVER THE NW HALF THIS AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE MILD ENOUGH TO MAKE IT A MIX OF FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES IN THE CENTRAL MTS. LITTLE/NO ACCUMS SHOULD OCCUR...UNTIL SUNSET. THE WRAP AROUND AND UPSLOPE OVER THE NW COULD GET SOME BOOST OF INSTABILITY AND MSTR FROM THE LAKE...BUT VERY LITTLE. THE MAIN THING WILL BE THE CHANGE IN TEMPS AFTER SUNSET TO BELOW FREEZING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SNOW TO START STICKING BETTER. WILL PUT 1-3 INCH ACCUMS IN THE NW...WITH LESS OVER THE LAURELS AND NE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RIDGING BUILDS IN FRIDAY...WITH FLURRIES AND SCT SHSN LEFT OVER IN THE WEST IN THE MORNING. WILL FINALLY GET BACK TO A DIURNAL TEMP CURVE ON FRIDAY...BUT MAXES WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMALS. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD. WENT BELOW GUID MINS BY A FEW DEGS. SATURDAY LOOKED INTERESTING THESE LAST FEW NIGHTS...BUT THE GFS IS NOW DRYING UP THE PRECIP THAT WAS SLATED FOR THE DAYTIME ON SAT. LATEST 00Z RUN KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP - WHICH WAS MAINLY SNOW - TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE HELD THE LINE FOR THE MOST PART AND JUST NUDGED POPS DOWN ABOUT 10 PCT ACROSS THE BOARD. TEMPS COULD BE BORDERLINE FOR SNOW IF IT DOES DECIDE TO PRECIPITATE ANYWAY...SO HAVE MENTIONED CHC OF RA OR SN IN THE SOUTH. ACCUMS WOULD BE LIGHT...IF THEY OCCUR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FCST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF ALL HINT AT A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT ECOAST STORM SYSTEM NEXT WED/THUR. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW FOR THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LINE OF TSRA SLAMMED INTO WESTERN PA EARLIER...BEFORE FALLING APART AS IT MOVED INTO CENTRAL PA. BRIEF CLEARING AFTER THAT... THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. RAIN TURNED TO SNOW ACROSS THE NW. BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT MVFR AT TIMES AT ALL SITES BUT IPT AND MDT. EVEN IFR AT SPOTS LIKE BFD EARLY THIS MORNING. FRIDAY...SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. SAT/SUN...INCREASING MOISTURE WITH VFR CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR LATE SAT THRU SUN. PRECIP ARRIVES SAT EVE AND LINGERS IN VC THRU SUN. TEMPS BORDERLINE FOR SNOW. MON...BREEZY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL EARLY ON AT SPOTS LIKE BFD AND JST AND THE FAR EAST. && .CLIMATE... BOTH IPT AND MDT MAX RECORDS WERE BROKEN WED AFTN. LA NINA STRIKES AGAIN. RECORD REPORTS SENT. FOR IPT...60 DEGREES BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 55 SET IN 1960. FOR MDT...63 DEGREES BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 59 SET IN 1999. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-012- 037-041-042-045-046-049>053. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004-005- 010-017>019-024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL AVIATION...BEACHLER/MARTIN CLIMATE...DANGELO/MARTIN ####018003778#### FXUS63 KBIS 121650 AFDBIS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 1050 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009 .UPDATE... CLEARING SKIES OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WARRANT A DECREASE IN MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER GRIDS. MEANWHILE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS FLURRY ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A BAND OF STRATUS IS NOW MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE STATE AND WILLISTON AND ESTEVAN CANADA ARE REPORTING FLURRIES. WILL ADD SCATTERED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VAD WINDS FROM MINOT AND BISMARCK RADARS INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ABOVE 2 THOUSAND FT AGL. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE IN LINE WITH VAD WINDS AND THE NAM DROPS THE WINDS OFF BY LATE MORNING. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE NAM...WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...DROPPING OFF BY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL JET WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONSEQUENTLY... SEE LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF NORMAL AS INDICATE BY THICKNESSES BELOW 522 DM THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKELY TO SEE SUB ZERO MORNING TEMPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL NEXT FEW NIGHTS. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAIN PROBLEM IN THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE START THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD OFF WITH A FLAT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A SURFACE RIDGE IS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA UNDER A CLOSED UPPER LOW. ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST PUSHES ONSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES OR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA BUT WILL NOT REINTRODUCE ANY POPS AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOST SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT SKIRTS THE AREA. WE CURRENTLY ARE CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS NOW. THE GFS IS THE WETTEST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AS IT MAINTAINS A TIGHTER THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM PUSH THIS GRADIENT FARTHER NORTH AND DO NOT DEVELOP MUCH PRECIP OVER THE AREA. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...MADE FEW CHANGES HERE AS A GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE COOLER THAN THE ECMWF OR GLOBAL GEM. WILL STICK WITH A BLEND HERE...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST...UNTIL MODELS DEPICT A BETTER CONSENSUS. AVIATION... A BAND OF MVFR CLOUDINESS WITH SOME FLURRIES IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. BY TAF ISSUANCE...THIS BAND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO BIS AND WILL MOVE TO JMS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE BAND LOOKS LIKE IT MAY JUST CLIP DIK AS WELL. PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE TIMING THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF MVFR CLOUDINESS WITH THIS CLOUD DECK DURING THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BAND SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ TSW/TWH/SCHECK ####018004913#### FXUS61 KBUF 121651 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1151 AM EST THU FEB 12 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS LOW WILL CHANGE ANY RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO ACCUMULATING SNOW...ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. RELATIVELY DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... TEMPERATURES AT MID DAY WERE STILL MILD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE WEST AND RAIN FROM ROCHESTER EAST, WITH SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE WEST...BUT AS TEMPERATURES COOL IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES SNOW LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ROCHESTER WEST AND UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE VERY STRONG WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA WITH AN ISALLOBARIC PUSH EAST OF ROCHESTER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL STILL CREATE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THEREFORE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. IN TERMS OF TOTAL SNOWFALL...EXPECT THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT. WINDS WILL ALSO DIE DOWN TONIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. COLDER AIR FILTER DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. INCREASING SHEAR COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD END ANY LAKE SNOWS BY FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD PROVIDE QUITE WEATHER. LATEST GFS AND NAM SUGGESTING A WEAK LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MODELS DIVERGE DURING THE PERIOD, BUT KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR MONDAY AND WE HAVE A CHANCE OF LAKE SNOWS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A STORM MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY WHICH GIVES A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VERY MOIST AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE PASSING JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CAUSE CIGS/VSBSY TO LOWER TO IFR AS THE DAY WEARS ON. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST WILL SEE CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. SATURDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW. SUNDAY...VFR. MONDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO GALE FORCE ON LAKE ONTARIO IN THE STRONG GRADIENT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE WHICH AT MID DAY WAS OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GUSTS COULD APPROACH STORM FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001-002-010>013-019>021-085. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>006- 010>014-019>021-085. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ006>008. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042>045- 062>065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...TJP SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...APB AVIATION...TJP MARINE...APB/TMA ####018003775#### FXUS65 KTFX 121652 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 952 AM MST THU FEB 12 2009 .UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR TODAY WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION OF ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. IN THE VALLEYS...FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY. THIS WIND SHIFT AND RESULTING UPSLOPING IS ALLOWING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. MAX TEMPS SEEMED RIGHT ON TRACK FOR TODAY SO DID NOT MAKE CHANGES AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST ALSO SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. MLS && .AVIATION... UPDATED 12/1420Z. BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS MONTANA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW. EXPECT SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. ALL SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT IN INTENSITY AT ALL LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF INTRUSIONS INTO IFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND SNOW SHOWERS. SUK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM MST THU FEB 12 2009/ TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS DIVE INTO CALIFORNIA AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR IS SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF ALBERTA AND WILL COVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL AND BELOW NORMAL. AS MOISTURE FROM THE TROF IS STEERED OVER THE COOLER UPSLOPE FLOW...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. OVERALL...DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. LOSS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER WEST COAST AND CENTRAL CANADA LEAVES AREA UNDER SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. WEAK...MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DURING PERIOD RIDGE WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SWINGING NORTHWARD FROM PACIFIC UPPER LOW TEND TO FLATTEN RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EASTERN MONTANA FOR AN EAST OR NORTHEAST FLOW. WHILE THIS WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BE SLIGHT. COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT STILL NOT COLD BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS. BRITTON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...WILL GO FOR CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WITH A SURFACE HIGH BEING EAST OF MONTANA...WILL GO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. WILLIAMSON DC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 30 13 28 11 / 40 60 50 20 CTB 25 10 21 11 / 40 50 40 20 HLN 35 18 33 12 / 40 40 30 20 BZN 32 12 32 5 / 50 40 30 20 WEY 24 -8 25 -7 / 40 50 20 30 DLN 30 9 30 8 / 20 20 20 20 HVR 23 1 19 2 / 10 20 20 20 LWT 28 10 27 6 / 40 50 40 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS ####018003371#### FXUS64 KSJT 121652 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1052 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009 .UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. && .DISCUSSION... SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE SLOWING BEGINNING TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW. SFC WINDS WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY TO VEER THE DIRECTION TO SOUTHERLY OR JUST WEST OF SOUTHERLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST NAM/GFS MODEL DATA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND HAVE THUS TWEAKED THE MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO THERE. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT FEBRUARY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LACY && .FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WX FCST WAS UPDATED TO TWEAK WIND DIRECTIONS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM/GFS BOTH SUGGEST MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO EVEN JUST WEST OF SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS A SLIGHT CHANGE FROM THE PREV FCST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST IS ON TRACK AS WE ARE LOOKING FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE AFTERNOON RH VALUES WOULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS...20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS BOTH AFTERNOONS DO NOT SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WX HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. LACY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009/ DISCUSSION... /12Z AVIATION TAF DISCUSSION BELOW/ AVIATION... LEE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT KSOA... KJCT... AND KBBD AFTER 6Z TONIGHT AS 35 KT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS BACK MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. KEPT KSJT AND KABI VFR...HOWEVER KSJT WILL BE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY...AS PACIFIC FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009/ SHORT TERM... QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY. THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STICK A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV NUMBERS. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AS WELL. FIRE WEATHER A CONCERN EACH OF THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. DOES NOT APPEAR LIKE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING EITHER DAY...BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AND THE MULTIMEDIA BRIEFING. LONG TERM... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE THINKING FROM YESTERDAY. SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT LARGELY DRY SLOT OUR AREA. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION GETS GOING AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES. COLD FRONTS FOLLOW THE WAVES...WITH THE FIRST IN FOR SATURDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 74 50 73 32 59 / 0 0 0 10 0 SAN ANGELO 77 49 76 31 67 / 0 0 0 10 0 JUNCTION 77 50 78 36 67 / 0 0 10 10 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ####018002382#### FXUS64 KMEG 121652 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1052 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009 .DISCUSSION...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WERE MOVING EAST INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION AND WILL GRADUALLY REACH THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON ON TRACK AT THIS TIME AND NO UPDATE ANTICIPATED. CJC && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009/ SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO MUCH OF FORECAST AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING THAT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MAY KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AND TRACK EAST INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SJM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 63 44 65 47 / 0 10 50 70 MKL 61 37 64 46 / 0 10 40 70 JBR 60 39 60 42 / 0 10 40 70 TUP 64 39 63 49 / 0 10 50 70 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ ####018003368#### FXUS64 KSJT 121652 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1052 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009 .UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. && .DISCUSSION... SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE SLOWING BEGINNING TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW. SFC WINDS WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY TO VEER THE DIRECTION TO SOUTHERLY OR JUST WEST OF SOUTHERLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST NAM/GFS MODEL DATA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND HAVE THUS TWEAKED THE MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO THERE. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A PLEASANT FEBRUARY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LACY && .FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WX FCST WAS UPDATED TO TWEAK WIND DIRECTIONS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM/GFS BOTH SUGGEST MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO EVEN JUST WEST OF SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS A SLIGHT CHANGE FROM THE PREV FCST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST IS ON TRACK AS WE ARE LOOKING FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE AFTERNOON RH VALUES WOULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS...20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS BOTH AFTERNOONS DO NOT SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WX HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. LACY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009/ DISCUSSION... /12Z AVIATION TAF DISCUSSION BELOW/ AVIATION... LEE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT KSOA... KJCT... AND KBBD AFTER 6Z TONIGHT AS 35 KT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS BACK MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. KEPT KSJT AND KABI VFR...HOWEVER KSJT WILL BE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY...AS PACIFIC FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009/ SHORT TERM... QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH ACROSS...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY. THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STICK A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV NUMBERS. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AS WELL. FIRE WEATHER A CONCERN EACH OF THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. DOES NOT APPEAR LIKE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING EITHER DAY...BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HWO AND THE MULTIMEDIA BRIEFING. LONG TERM... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE THINKING FROM YESTERDAY. SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT LARGELY DRY SLOT OUR AREA. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION GETS GOING AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES. COLD FRONTS FOLLOW THE WAVES...WITH THE FIRST IN FOR SATURDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 74 50 73 32 59 / 0 0 0 10 0 SAN ANGELO 77 49 76 31 67 / 0 0 0 10 0 JUNCTION 77 50 78 36 67 / 0 0 10 10 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$