FXUS64 KFWD 081743 AAC AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004 .AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR WITH LIGHT E TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z MON. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 850 WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCT/BKN LAYER AROUND 5-6KFT AND EVEN ISO SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN-MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA SHOULD BE VERY WEAK AND POSE NO THREAT TO P6SM VISIBILITIES. ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING MCS TO THE NW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BKN ALTOCUMULUS DECK LINGERING AROUND 10KFT. TR/92 && .UPDATE... ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING. HAVE SPREAD LOW POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...TO THE WEST OF A BONHAM...TO HEARNE LINE. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN ZONES. MINOR TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT/SKY COVER ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE. ALL UPDATED WORDED AND GRIDDED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. #58 && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 300 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004 SIMILAR SITUATION TO YDY WITH LINEAR MCS OVER NW TX/WRN OK WHICH HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO UPSLOPE AND NW FLOW SHORTWAVE OVER KS/NRN OK THIS MORNING...AND IS DROPPING DOWN ERN PERIPHERY OF H85-H7 THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TX. CORFIDI VECTORS WHICH ARE RELIABLE MOST CASES IN MOVEMENT OF MCS/S SHOWING SEWD MOVEMENT TO ABOUT WICHITA FALLS/ABILENE LINE...THEN A SHIFT TO DUE SOUTH. WILL INSERT 20 PERCENT WEST OF BOWIE...MINERAL WELLS...HAMILTON...TEMPLE LINE ONCE AGAIN...WITH POTENTIAL RAISE TO CHANCE POPS PENDING RADAR TRENDS. AGAIN DRIER LOW LVL AIRMASS EAST OF THE AREA SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING BUT MAYBE SPRINKLES MAKING IT TO I-35. WILL LINGER THESE LOW POPS THROUGH SUNSET OUT WEST. CLOUDS FROM MCS ANVIL BLOW OFF COULD BE AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS TRICKY IF BLOW OFF LINGERS LIKE SATURDAY...DESPITE SLIGHT LOW LVL THICKNESS RISES... ESPECIALLY W/SW ZONES. RIGHT NOW...THINKING A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW CONSENSUS MOS AND STAYING CONSERVATIVE ON WARM UP TODAY THE WAY TO GO. OTHERWISE... WILL PATTERN STAYS STAGNANT TONIGHT-MON NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER NM...BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WNWD BY MON NIGHT. WARM UP MONDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT...AS CLOUDS FROM DYING W TX MCS SHOULD PLAY A FACTOR WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW LVL THERMAL FIELDS. MED RANGE MODELS (IE...GFS LR/ECMWF/UKMET) ALL AGREEING ON HUDSON BAY VORTEX DEEPENING AND EXPANDING SWD INTO THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY REGION TUES/BEYOND...AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES WWD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/WEST COAST. TIMING OF FRONT/CONVECTION/COOL CP AIRMASS NOT TOTALLY CERTAIN ATTM...BUT WOULD GUESS RED RIVER AREA DAYBREAK WED...THEN COLD FRONT SURGING ACROSS RIO GRANDE INTO NRN MEXICO 24 HRS LATER. SO WILL INDICATE A WETTER/COOLER FCST WED/THURS WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATION FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW BEING THAT IT/S AUGUST...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS ARE LOWERED EVEN A CATEGORY MORE IN THE COMING DAYS. VERY UNTYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...BUT DON/T TOO MANY PEOPLE ARE GOING TO COMPLAIN. THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR EXCELLENT COORD THIS MORNING. #05 && .PRELIMINARY TEMPERATURES/PROBABILITIES... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 72 94 74 / 20 10 0 0 WACO, TX 91 71 94 72 / 20 20 0 0 PARIS, TX 89 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 10 DENTON, TX 89 70 94 71 / 20 10 0 10 MCKINNEY, TX 90 68 93 72 / 20 10 0 10 DALLAS, TX 90 73 94 75 / 20 10 0 0 TERRELL, TX 91 71 94 73 / 10 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 92 70 94 73 / 20 10 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 91 72 95 72 / 20 20 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. && $$