ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES SUMMARY - October 2001 ************************************************************************************************************************* Special notice: Because of the terrorist attacks of September 11, the Census Bureau altered an option in its seasonal adjustment procedures to produce the seasonally adjusted data for the September and October releases. This alteration ensured that the published seasonally adjusted values fully include the effects of the attacks and eliminated the distortion that September’s untypical events would otherwise have had on seasonal factors for September, October, and surrounding months. For kinds of business covered by this report, the seasonal adjustment option was used whenever the appropriate statistical test showed that the unadjusted September or October value was not in a typical range and there was an independent indication of an impact due to the September events. For technical details, see http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/advtable.html. ************************************************************************************************************************* The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $306.8 billion, an increase of 7.1 percent (±1.2%) from the previous month and up 7.5 percent (±1.7%) from October 2000. Total sales for the August through October period were up 3.7 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2001 percent change was revised from -2.4 percent (±1.0%) to -2.2 percent (±0.3%). Retail trade sales were up 7.7 percent (±1.2%) from September and were 7.9 percent (±1.7%) above last year. Motor vehicle and parts dealers were up 25.9 percent (±3.5%) from last year and sales of health and personal care stores were up 8.5 percent (±3.6%) from October 2000. Sales of nonstore retailers decreased 9.1 percent (±9.4%) from October a year ago and gasoline stations were down 8.0 percent (±4.8%) from last year. The advance estimates are based on a small subsample of the Bureau's full retail sales sample. Estimates from the advance and the subsequent full survey can differ because of the earlier reporting in the advance and because of sampling variability present in both surveys. The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report for November is scheduled to be released December 13, 2001 at 8:30 a.m. TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES--October 2001 Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 2001 2001 2001 2000 2000 NAICS Kind of business Oct Sep Aug code adv. prel. final Oct(r) Sep(r) Retail & food services, total.................... 306,826 286,412 292,869 285,459 286,213 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 219,427 217,283 220,514 216,024 216,024 Retail ....................................... 280,097 260,041 265,826 259,637 260,419 GAFO............................................. (*) 73,578 75,341 73,970 74,235 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 87,399 69,129 72,355 69,435 70,189 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 81,241 63,235 66,154 63,366 63,892 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 7,356 7,396 7,717 7,685 7,664 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 7,234 7,181 7,284 7,264 7,411 44311 Appl., T.V., & camera.......................... (*) 5,191 5,237 5,087 5,114 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,990 2,047 2,177 2,297 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 24,770 24,099 24,739 23,056 23,001 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 21,125 21,731 19,943 19,795 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 40,508 40,400 40,189 39,203 38,991 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 36,604 36,539 36,305 35,497 35,315 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 2,517 2,508 2,462 2,430 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 14,785 14,537 14,489 13,633 13,591 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 12,543 12,470 11,680 11,533 447 Gasoline stations................................ 19,189 20,510 19,959 20,867 20,906 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 14,289 13,361 14,192 14,288 14,314 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) 812 890 897 904 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 2,463 2,633 2,776 2,783 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 1,732 1,856 1,847 1,848 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,474 7,255 7,417 6,726 6,840 452 General merchandise stores....................... 35,015 34,781 34,945 34,351 34,452 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 19,438 19,313 19,633 19,839 19,963 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 15,468 15,312 14,512 14,489 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) 12,323 12,171 11,594 11,584 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,145 3,141 2,918 2,905 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,440 9,287 9,528 9,233 9,172 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 12,638 12,105 13,012 13,896 13,888 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 8,233 9,044 9,412 9,334 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 26,729 26,371 27,043 25,822 25,794 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised. TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES--October 2001 Not adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Millions of dollars) 10 month total Change 2001 2001 2001 2000 2000 NAICS Kind of business 2001 from Oct Sep Aug code 2000 adv. prel. final Oct Sep Retail & food services, total.................... 2,868,110 3.4 305,272 272,463 306,752 279,838 278,259 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2,125,503 3.0 218,120 206,531 227,523 212,475 208,946 Retail ....................................... 2,601,142 3.3 278,490 246,461 278,113 253,913 252,542 GAFO............................................. (*) (*) (*) 67,665 77,223 70,133 69,380 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 742,607 4.6 87,152 65,932 79,229 67,363 69,313 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 681,080 5.1 80,754 60,073 72,439 61,148 62,934 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 51,994 62,042 53,164 54,472 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 5,859 6,790 6,215 6,379 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 73,960 -1.0 7,547 7,167 8,018 7,731 7,587 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 3,896 4,235 4,078 4,125 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,271 3,783 3,653 3,462 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 67,206 -2.0 6,724 6,576 7,362 6,668 6,940 44311 Appl., T.V., & camera.......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,620 5,258 4,548 4,664 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,956 2,104 2,120 2,276 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 247,857 5.7 26,159 23,344 26,270 23,850 22,839 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 20,914 23,752 21,120 20,191 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 395,098 3.4 40,013 39,417 41,275 38,347 38,573 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 358,256 3.1 36,238 35,808 37,322 34,823 35,032 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 2,379 2,581 2,371 2,377 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 140,551 8.7 14,800 13,418 14,518 13,347 12,857 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 11,602 12,408 11,435 10,910 447 Gasoline stations................................ 204,059 0.2 19,515 20,223 21,436 21,034 21,094 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 129,349 1.3 13,600 12,305 14,992 13,460 13,464 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 758 905 889 845 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,372 2,672 2,720 2,730 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 4,261 5,150 4,666 4,488 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,645 2,337 1,677 1,791 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 65,362 8.4 6,697 6,751 7,762 5,882 6,482 452 General merchandise stores....................... 319,883 2.5 33,649 31,477 35,085 32,840 31,420 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 178,259 -0.4 18,439 17,281 19,727 18,789 18,064 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.).................. (*) (*) (*) 17,495 20,104 19,184 18,441 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 14,196 15,358 14,051 13,356 45291 Warehouse clubs & superstores.................. (*) (*) (*) 11,325 12,208 11,200 10,669 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 2,871 3,150 2,851 2,687 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 90,553 2.7 9,332 8,707 9,833 9,006 8,880 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 124,657 -2.8 13,302 11,144 12,333 14,385 13,093 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 7,780 8,836 9,883 9,073 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 266,968 4.5 26,782 26,002 28,639 25,925 25,717 (*) Advance estimates are not available from the subsample panel for these kinds of business. (NA) Not available. (r) Revised. TABLE 2. PERCENT CHANGE IN ESTIMATED ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES--October 2001 Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Oct Sep 2001 2001 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of business Sep Oct Aug Sep CODE 2001 2000 2001 2000 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... +7.1 +7.5 -2.2 +0.1 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +1.0 +1.6 -1.5 +0.6 Retail .................................. +7.7 +7.9 -2.2 -0.1 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +26.4 +25.9 -4.5 -1.5 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +28.5 +28.2 -4.4 -1.0 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -0.5 -4.3 -4.2 -3.5 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.7 -0.4 -1.4 -3.1 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +2.8 +7.4 -2.6 +4.8 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.3 +3.3 +0.5 +3.6 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.2 +3.1 +0.6 +3.5 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +1.7 +8.5 +0.3 +7.0 447 Gasoline stations................................ -6.4 -8.0 +2.8 -1.9 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +6.9 0.0 -5.9 -6.7 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +3.0 +11.1 -2.2 +6.1 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.7 +1.9 -0.5 +1.0 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +0.6 -2.0 -1.6 -3.3 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +1.6 +2.2 -2.5 +1.3 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +4.4 -9.1 -7.0 -12.8 722 Food services & drinking Places.................. +1.4 +3.5 -2.5 +2.2 Not Adjusted for Seasonal, Holiday and Trading-day Differences (Percent Change) Oct Sep 2001 2001 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of business Sep Oct Aug Sep CODE 2001 2000 2001 2000 Prel. Final Final Final Retail & food Services, total.................... +12.0 +9.1 -11.2 -2.1 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +5.6 +2.7 -9.2 -1.2 Retail .................................. +13.0 +9.7 -11.4 -2.4 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +32.2 +29.4 -16.8 -4.9 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +34.4 +32.1 -17.1 -4.5 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +5.3 -2.4 -10.6 -5.5 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +2.3 +0.8 -10.7 -5.2 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers +12.1 +9.7 -11.1 +2.2 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +1.5 +4.3 -4.5 +2.2 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +1.2 +4.1 -4.1 +2.2 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +10.3 +10.9 -7.6 +4.4 447 Gasoline stations................................ -3.5 -7.2 -5.7 -4.1 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +10.5 +1.0 -17.9 -8.6 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -0.8 +13.9 -13.0 +4.1 452 General merchandise stores....................... +6.9 +2.5 -10.3 +0.2 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +6.7 -1.9 -12.4 -4.3 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +7.2 +3.6 -11.5 -1.9 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +19.4 -7.5 -9.6 -14.9 722 Food services & drinking Places.................. +3.0 +3.3 -9.2 +1.1 (NA) Not Available. SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--OCTOBER 2001 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Scott Scheleur (301) 457-2713/2666.