000
FXUS63 KGID 130913
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
313 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE WINTER STORM FOR TODAY IS THE MAIN CONCERN. KUEX
WSR-88D HAS SHOWN INCREASING RETURNS...THOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS HAS KEPT THE PRECIPITATION AT BAY SO FAR. THERE ARE SEVERAL
QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT TODAY...ESPECIALLY
NOW WITH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOWING A VERY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WHICH
HAS IN TURN REDUCED QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THAT
BEING SAID...MANY THINGS ALSO REMAIN THE SAME. THERE WILL STILL BE
A PERIOD OF GOOD MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL GENERATED VERTICAL
VELOCITIES ALSO SHOW A PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT MOVING ACROSS IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER WHICH SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO A PERIOD OF EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...AS STATED ABOVE...THE 00Z GFS AND
NAM HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER QPF AMOUNTS WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. AFTER WEIGHING THE PROS AND CONS OF MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE HEADLINES...HAVE SIDED WITH LEAVING THE CURRENT HEADLINES IN
PLACE. EVEN IF THE MODELS ARE TRENDING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION WITH
LESSER QPF AMOUNTS...THEY ARE STILL SHOWING A SOLID 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE WARNING AREA. THE BANDED NATURE OF THE SNOW
WILL LIKELY GIVE SOME SPOTS HEAVIER AMOUNTS...AND WITH WINDS OF 20
TO 30 MPH THAT SHOULD CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE OF 6 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA...AND KEEP
LESSER TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THE BULK OF
THIS EVENT WILL COME TO AN END BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FAR EAST VERY
EARLY THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON SATURDAY. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD AGAIN KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY DURING THE
DAY...HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS THE FAR WEST COULD BEGIN TO
SATURATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO SUPPORTS A
SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE WEST..SO WILL GO AHEAD AND FOLLOW
THEIR LEAD. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL THEN HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES INTO SUNDAY...BUT THEY LOOK INSIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE WELL ADVERTISED
SNOW EVENT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN...A FAIRLY SOLID SHIELD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS SLATED TO IMPACT KGRI MAINLY BETWEEN MID
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FALLING
INTO PRIMARILY IFR AND LIFR TERRITORY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN
4-6 INCHES LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET BEFORE SNOW PUSHES EAST DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT OF AN ISSUE AS
WELL...WITH NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS ACCOMPANYING
THE FALLING SNOW AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. OF COURSE...THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SNOW WILL BE
BETTER REFINED IN LATER FORECASTS. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN
SOMETIME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND BREEZES DIMINISH.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ087.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ005>007.
&&
$$
KING/PFANNKUCH
000
FXUS63 KGID 130552
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1152 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE WELL ADVERTISED
SNOW EVENT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNRISE. THEN...A FAIRLY SOLID SHIELD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS SLATED TO IMPACT KGRI MAINLY BETWEEN MID
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FALLING
INTO PRIMARILY IFR AND LIFR TERRITORY. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN
4-6 INCHES LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET BEFORE SNOW PUSHES EAST DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT OF AN ISSUE AS
WELL...WITH NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS ACCOMPANYING
THE FALLING SNOW AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. OF COURSE...THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SNOW WILL BE
BETTER REFINED IN LATER FORECASTS. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN
SOMETIME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND BREEZES DIMINISH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009/
UPDATE...THE STORM SYSTEM OF NOTE IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN PATH. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SIGNS
IN RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
DUE TO THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC. HOWEVER...THE FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STILL VERY FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD SNOW.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH ALL OF THE SAME WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES...BUT TREND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN TO RIGHT AROUND 6 INCHES
FOR THE COUNTIES UNDER THE WINTER STORM WARNING. BELIEVE THE BEST
FORECAST RANGE FOR SNOW IN THE WARNED AREA IS 4 TO 7 INCHES WITH
AVERAGE AMOUNTS RIGHT AROUND 6 INCHES. NOT REALLY EXPECTING SNOW
TO GET STARTED UNTIL RIGHT AROUND DAY BREAK WITH A RAPID INCREASE
IN SNOW AFTER 9 OR 10 AM. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL IN THE 10
AM TO 2 PM TIME FRAME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009/
SHORT TERM...APPROACHING WINTER STORM IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BASICALLY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND UP TOWARD THE HEBRON NEBRASKA AREA. THERE HAS BEEN...
AND CONTINUES TO BE VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY IN MODEL FORECASTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH REGARDING AN IMPACTFUL
WINTER STORM EVENT...PRIMARILY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH
WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE BELOW AND DRIFTING ISSUES.
MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET...AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE CWFA. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE TOWARD
DAWN...LIKELY IN AN EAST/WEST STRIP REACHING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CWFA. HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE THAT WILL SET
UP...BUT AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THAT.
THE MAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION IS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. QPF REMAINS
GENEROUS...THOUGH MAYBE SLIGHTLY LESS. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT...
FRONTOGENESIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE...AND GENERALLY
CENTERED ON 18Z OVER THE CWFA. WOULD EXPECT HEAVY SNOW FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV MAY RESULT IN
ENHANCE SNOW RATES...POSSIBLY AN 1+ PER HOUR. THE WAVE DOES SEEM
TO BE MOVING A TOUCH QUICKER. HPC NOTES SOME OF THE MOISTURE MAY
GET DIVERTED BY GULF COAST CONVECTION...AND THAT IS ALWAYS A
CONCERN. RIGHT NOW...HAVE LOWERED STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT...AND GENERALLY HAVE 5 TO 8 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA...AND 3
TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THAT DOESN/T RULE OUT SOME PLACES
GETTING MORE THAN 8 INCHES. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA IS LOOKING AT 1
TO MAYBE 3 INCHES OF SNOW...AND NOT IN A WINTER HEADLINE. 18Z RUN
OF THE NAM STILL SUPPORTS THIS THINKING.
AM LOOKING FOR AN INITIAL HEAVIER SNOW BAND OVER THE NORTHWEST CWFA
IN THE MORNING /LEXINGTON AND LOUP CITY/...AND THEN AS THE LOW WRAPS
IN MORE MOISTURE...ANOTHER BAND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN
CWFA IN THE AFTERNOON /YORK AND GENEVA AREAS/. THOUGH COMPACT AND
QUICK... THE WINDS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE SOLID...SOLID ENOUGH
FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING TO BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWFA QUICKLY...AND WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE WAY OUT BY 6 PM FRIDAY...WITH ONLY LINGERING FLURRIES OR A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL ALSO DIE OFF...AND
BE LESS THAN 10 MPH BY MID EVENING FRIDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THAT
WILL LIMIT POST SNOWFALL BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUES.
LONG TERM...12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES
INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN IN THE
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF ON THE CHILLY SIDE ON SATURDAY...BUT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW WITH NEXT QUICK-MOVING UPPER WAVE TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. FRESH SNOW COVER ON
THE GROUND...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS. MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
THIS WAVE IS WEAKENING/OPENING UP AS IT EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND HENCE A BIT TRICKY TO PIN DOWN THE SNOW
CHANCES/AMOUNTS WITH IT. AS MENTIONED...THE TRACK FAVORS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW
LAID DOWN THERE GIVEN DECENT FORCING DESPITE ITS WEAKENING NATURE
AND COLD TEMPS /HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS/. KEPT THE SUNDAY PERIOD
DRY AS THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. COULD END UP
BEING SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
CURRENT PROJECTED SPEED OF WAVE WOULD PUT THE BETTER FORCING EAST OF
THE CWA BY THIS TIME BUT IT/S SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.
TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD
BEHIND EXITING WAVE. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS COOL WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AS THE SNOW COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD TEMPS BACK. SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING WORKS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
RETURN FLOW. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE IN THIS REGIME AND
SHOULD START TO SEE SOME APPRECIABLE MELTING THIS DAY. WAA/MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT BUT ANY RESULTING PRECIP LOOKS TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW IN ON
TUESDAY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST AS A PROGRESSIVE
OPEN WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUT IT/S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE CWA
WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER PRECIP FOCUS
STAYING TO THE EAST. TEMPS ON TUESDAY A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT.
WILL HAVE GOOD WAA INITIALLY BUT COLD FRONT THEN PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL THE WARMING
TREND...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR THEN BEING SENT THROUGH BY A CLIPPER WAVE. DRY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ087.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
KSZ005>007.
&&
$$
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
000
FXUS63 KGID 130306
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
906 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009
.UPDATE...THE STORM SYSTEM OF NOTE IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN PATH. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SIGNS
IN RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
DUE TO THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC. HOWEVER...THE FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STILL VERY FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD SNOW.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH ALL OF THE SAME WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES...BUT TREND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN TO RIGHT AROUND 6 INCHES
FOR THE COUNTIES UNDER THE WINTER STORM WARNING. BELIEVE THE BEST
FORECAST RANGE FOR SNOW IN THE WARNED AREA IS 4 TO 7 INCHES WITH
AVERAGE AMOUNTS RIGHT AROUND 6 INCHES. NOT REALLY EXPECTING SNOW
TO GET STARTED UNTIL RIGHT AROUND DAY BREAK WITH A RAPID INCREASE
IN SNOW AFTER 9 OR 10 AM. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL IN THE 10
AM TO 2 PM TIME FRAME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009/
AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. THE BIG AVIATION ISSUE WILL BE THE
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ON FRIDAY. FORECAST MODELS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR
WINTER STORM FOR THE KGRI AREA. THERE IS SOME BACKING OFF OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS BUT EVEN SO THERE IS
STILL GOOD SUPPORT IN SEEING 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE GRAND
ISLAND AIRPORT. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK AND BECOME HEAVY
BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND MAYBE EVEN VLIFR
CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES AND END BY LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009/
SHORT TERM...APPROACHING WINTER STORM IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BASICALLY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND UP TOWARD THE HEBRON NEBRASKA AREA. THERE HAS BEEN...
AND CONTINUES TO BE VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY IN MODEL FORECASTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH REGARDING AN IMPACTFUL
WINTER STORM EVENT...PRIMARILY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH
WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE BELOW AND DRIFTING ISSUES.
MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET...AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE CWFA. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE TOWARD
DAWN...LIKELY IN AN EAST/WEST STRIP REACHING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CWFA. HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE THAT WILL SET
UP...BUT AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THAT.
THE MAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION IS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. QPF REMAINS
GENEROUS...THOUGH MAYBE SLIGHTLY LESS. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT...
FRONTOGENESIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE...AND GENERALLY
CENTERED ON 18Z OVER THE CWFA. WOULD EXPECT HEAVY SNOW FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV MAY RESULT IN
ENHANCE SNOW RATES...POSSIBLY AN 1+ PER HOUR. THE WAVE DOES SEEM
TO BE MOVING A TOUCH QUICKER. HPC NOTES SOME OF THE MOISTURE MAY
GET DIVERTED BY GULF COAST CONVECTION...AND THAT IS ALWAYS A
CONCERN. RIGHT NOW...HAVE LOWERED STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT...AND GENERALLY HAVE 5 TO 8 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA...AND 3
TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THAT DOESN/T RULE OUT SOME PLACES
GETTING MORE THAN 8 INCHES. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA IS LOOKING AT 1
TO MAYBE 3 INCHES OF SNOW...AND NOT IN A WINTER HEADLINE. 18Z RUN
OF THE NAM STILL SUPPORTS THIS THINKING.
AM LOOKING FOR AN INITIAL HEAVIER SNOW BAND OVER THE NORTHWEST CWFA
IN THE MORNING /LEXINGTON AND LOUP CITY/...AND THEN AS THE LOW WRAPS
IN MORE MOISTURE...ANOTHER BAND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN
CWFA IN THE AFTERNOON /YORK AND GENEVA AREAS/. THOUGH COMPACT AND
QUICK... THE WINDS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE SOLID...SOLID ENOUGH
FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING TO BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWFA QUICKLY...AND WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE WAY OUT BY 6 PM FRIDAY...WITH ONLY LINGERING FLURRIES OR A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL ALSO DIE OFF...AND
BE LESS THAN 10 MPH BY MID EVENING FRIDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THAT
WILL LIMIT POST SNOWFALL BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUES.
LONG TERM...12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES
INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN IN THE
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF ON THE CHILLY SIDE ON SATURDAY...BUT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW WITH NEXT QUICK-MOVING UPPER WAVE TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. FRESH SNOW COVER ON
THE GROUND...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS. MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
THIS WAVE IS WEAKENING/OPENING UP AS IT EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND HENCE A BIT TRICKY TO PIN DOWN THE SNOW
CHANCES/AMOUNTS WITH IT. AS MENTIONED...THE TRACK FAVORS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW
LAID DOWN THERE GIVEN DECENT FORCING DESPITE ITS WEAKENING NATURE
AND COLD TEMPS /HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS/. KEPT THE SUNDAY PERIOD
DRY AS THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. COULD END UP
BEING SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
CURRENT PROJECTED SPEED OF WAVE WOULD PUT THE BETTER FORCING EAST OF
THE CWA BY THIS TIME BUT IT/S SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.
TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD
BEHIND EXITING WAVE. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS COOL WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AS THE SNOW COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD TEMPS BACK. SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING WORKS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
RETURN FLOW. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE IN THIS REGIME AND
SHOULD START TO SEE SOME APPRECIABLE MELTING THIS DAY. WAA/MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT BUT ANY RESULTING PRECIP LOOKS TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW IN ON
TUESDAY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST AS A PROGRESSIVE
OPEN WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUT IT/S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE CWA
WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER PRECIP FOCUS
STAYING TO THE EAST. TEMPS ON TUESDAY A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT.
WILL HAVE GOOD WAA INITIALLY BUT COLD FRONT THEN PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL THE WARMING
TREND...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR THEN BEING SENT THROUGH BY A CLIPPER WAVE. DRY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ087.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
KSZ005>007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WESELY
000
FXUS63 KGID 122358
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
558 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009
.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. THE BIG AVIATION ISSUE WILL BE THE
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ON FRIDAY. FORECAST MODELS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR
WINTER STORM FOR THE KGRI AREA. THERE IS SOME BACKING OFF OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS BUT EVEN SO THERE IS
STILL GOOD SUPPORT IN SEEING 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE GRAND
ISLAND AIRPORT. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK AND BECOME HEAVY
BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND MAYBE EVEN VLIFR
CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES AND END BY LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009/
SHORT TERM...APPROACHING WINTER STORM IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BASICALLY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND UP TOWARD THE HEBRON NEBRASKA AREA. THERE HAS BEEN...
AND CONTINUES TO BE VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY IN MODEL FORECASTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH REGARDING AN IMPACTFUL
WINTER STORM EVENT...PRIMARILY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH
WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE BELOW AND DRIFTING ISSUES.
MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET...AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE CWFA. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE TOWARD
DAWN...LIKELY IN AN EAST/WEST STRIP REACHING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CWFA. HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE THAT WILL SET
UP...BUT AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THAT.
THE MAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION IS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. QPF REMAINS
GENEROUS...THOUGH MAYBE SLIGHTLY LESS. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT...
FRONTOGENESIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE...AND GENERALLY
CENTERED ON 18Z OVER THE CWFA. WOULD EXPECT HEAVY SNOW FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV MAY RESULT IN
ENHANCE SNOW RATES...POSSIBLY AN 1+ PER HOUR. THE WAVE DOES SEEM
TO BE MOVING A TOUCH QUICKER. HPC NOTES SOME OF THE MOISTURE MAY
GET DIVERTED BY GULF COAST CONVECTION...AND THAT IS ALWAYS A
CONCERN. RIGHT NOW...HAVE LOWERED STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT...AND GENERALLY HAVE 5 TO 8 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA...AND 3
TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THAT DOESN/T RULE OUT SOME PLACES
GETTING MORE THAN 8 INCHES. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA IS LOOKING AT 1
TO MAYBE 3 INCHES OF SNOW...AND NOT IN A WINTER HEADLINE. 18Z RUN
OF THE NAM STILL SUPPORTS THIS THINKING.
AM LOOKING FOR AN INITIAL HEAVIER SNOW BAND OVER THE NORTHWEST CWFA
IN THE MORNING /LEXINGTON AND LOUP CITY/...AND THEN AS THE LOW WRAPS
IN MORE MOISTURE...ANOTHER BAND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN
CWFA IN THE AFTERNOON /YORK AND GENEVA AREAS/. THOUGH COMPACT AND
QUICK... THE WINDS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE SOLID...SOLID ENOUGH
FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING TO BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWFA QUICKLY...AND WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE WAY OUT BY 6 PM FRIDAY...WITH ONLY LINGERING FLURRIES OR A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL ALSO DIE OFF...AND
BE LESS THAN 10 MPH BY MID EVENING FRIDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THAT
WILL LIMIT POST SNOWFALL BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUES.
LONG TERM...12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES
INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN IN THE
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF ON THE CHILLY SIDE ON SATURDAY...BUT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW WITH NEXT QUICK-MOVING UPPER WAVE TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. FRESH SNOW COVER ON
THE GROUND...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS. MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
THIS WAVE IS WEAKENING/OPENING UP AS IT EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND HENCE A BIT TRICKY TO PIN DOWN THE SNOW
CHANCES/AMOUNTS WITH IT. AS MENTIONED...THE TRACK FAVORS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW
LAID DOWN THERE GIVEN DECENT FORCING DESPITE ITS WEAKENING NATURE
AND COLD TEMPS /HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS/. KEPT THE SUNDAY PERIOD
DRY AS THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. COULD END UP
BEING SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
CURRENT PROJECTED SPEED OF WAVE WOULD PUT THE BETTER FORCING EAST OF
THE CWA BY THIS TIME BUT IT/S SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.
TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD
BEHIND EXITING WAVE. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS COOL WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AS THE SNOW COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD TEMPS BACK. SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING WORKS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
RETURN FLOW. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE IN THIS REGIME AND
SHOULD START TO SEE SOME APPRECIABLE MELTING THIS DAY. WAA/MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT BUT ANY RESULTING PRECIP LOOKS TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW IN ON
TUESDAY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST AS A PROGRESSIVE
OPEN WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUT IT/S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE CWA
WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER PRECIP FOCUS
STAYING TO THE EAST. TEMPS ON TUESDAY A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT.
WILL HAVE GOOD WAA INITIALLY BUT COLD FRONT THEN PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL THE WARMING
TREND...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR THEN BEING SENT THROUGH BY A CLIPPER WAVE. DRY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ087.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
KSZ005>007.
&&
$$
AVIATION...WESLEY
000
FXUS63 KGID 122052
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
252 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009
.SHORT TERM...APPROACHING WINTER STORM IS THE MAIN ISSUE.
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BASICALLY FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND UP TOWARD THE HEBRON NEBRASKA AREA. THERE HAS BEEN...
AND CONTINUES TO BE VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY IN MODEL FORECASTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH REGARDING AN IMPACTFUL
WINTER STORM EVENT...PRIMARILY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH
WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE BELOW AND DRIFTING ISSUES.
MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET...AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
JUST WEST OF THE CWFA. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE TOWARD
DAWN...LIKELY IN AN EAST/WEST STRIP REACHING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CWFA. HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE THAT WILL SET
UP...BUT AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THAT.
THE MAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION IS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. QPF REMAINS
GENEROUS...THOUGH MAYBE SLIGHTLY LESS. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT...
FRONTOGENESIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE...AND GENERALLY
CENTERED ON 18Z OVER THE CWFA. WOULD EXPECT HEAVY SNOW FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV MAY RESULT IN
ENHANCE SNOW RATES...POSSIBLY AN 1+ PER HOUR. THE WAVE DOES SEEM
TO BE MOVING A TOUCH QUICKER. HPC NOTES SOME OF THE MOISTURE MAY
GET DIVERTED BY GULF COAST CONVECTION...AND THAT IS ALWAYS A
CONCERN. RIGHT NOW...HAVE LOWERED STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT...AND GENERALLY HAVE 5 TO 8 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA...AND 3
TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THAT DOESN/T RULE OUT SOME PLACES
GETTING MORE THAN 8 INCHES. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA IS LOOKING AT 1
TO MAYBE 3 INCHES OF SNOW...AND NOT IN A WINTER HEADLINE. 18Z RUN
OF THE NAM STILL SUPPORTS THIS THINKING.
AM LOOKING FOR AN INITIAL HEAVIER SNOW BAND OVER THE NORTHWEST CWFA
IN THE MORNING /LEXINGTON AND LOUP CITY/...AND THEN AS THE LOW WRAPS
IN MORE MOISTURE...ANOTHER BAND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN
CWFA IN THE AFTERNOON /YORK AND GENEVA AREAS/. THOUGH COMPACT AND
QUICK... THE WINDS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE SOLID...SOLID ENOUGH
FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING TO BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWFA QUICKLY...AND WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE WAY OUT BY 6 PM FRIDAY...WITH ONLY LINGERING FLURRIES OR A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL ALSO DIE OFF...AND
BE LESS THAN 10 MPH BY MID EVENING FRIDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THAT
WILL LIMIT POST SNOWFALL BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUES.
.LONG TERM...12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES
INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN IN THE
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF ON THE CHILLY SIDE ON SATURDAY...BUT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW WITH NEXT QUICK-MOVING UPPER WAVE TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. FRESH SNOW COVER ON
THE GROUND...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS. MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
THIS WAVE IS WEAKENING/OPENING UP AS IT EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND HENCE A BIT TRICKY TO PIN DOWN THE SNOW
CHANCES/AMOUNTS WITH IT. AS MENTIONED...THE TRACK FAVORS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW
LAID DOWN THERE GIVEN DECENT FORCING DESPITE ITS WEAKENING NATURE
AND COLD TEMPS /HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS/. KEPT THE SUNDAY PERIOD
DRY AS THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. COULD END UP
BEING SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
CURRENT PROJECTED SPEED OF WAVE WOULD PUT THE BETTER FORCING EAST OF
THE CWA BY THIS TIME BUT IT/S SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.
TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD
BEHIND EXITING WAVE. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS COOL WITH HIGHS FORECAST
TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AS THE SNOW COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD TEMPS BACK. SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING WORKS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
RETURN FLOW. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE IN THIS REGIME AND
SHOULD START TO SEE SOME APPRECIABLE MELTING THIS DAY. WAA/MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT BUT ANY RESULTING PRECIP LOOKS TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW IN ON
TUESDAY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST AS A PROGRESSIVE
OPEN WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUT IT/S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE CWA
WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BETTER PRECIP FOCUS
STAYING TO THE EAST. TEMPS ON TUESDAY A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT.
WILL HAVE GOOD WAA INITIALLY BUT COLD FRONT THEN PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL THE WARMING
TREND...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR THEN BEING SENT THROUGH BY A CLIPPER WAVE. DRY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009/
AVIATION...18Z TAF. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF LIES IN THE
MID/LATE PORTIONS...AS A STOUT STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE PLAINS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO START TO
DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SNOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP COMING MID MORNING WHEN
IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A COMBO OF
MOD/HEAVY SNOW AND INCREASING NORTHERN WINDS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>086.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
NEZ087.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
KSZ005>007.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGID 121732
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1132 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAF. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF LIES IN THE
MID/LATE PORTIONS...AS A STOUT STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE PLAINS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO START TO
DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SNOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP COMING MID MORNING WHEN
IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A COMBO OF
MOD/HEAVY SNOW AND INCREASING NORTHERN WINDS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009/
DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
SPINNING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND THE WELL ADVERTISED
SYSTEM ORGANIZING TO THE WEST OVER CALIFORNIA. AT 09Z...CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS WERE STARTING
TO STREAM INTO WESTERN KANSAS. OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 09Z
DEPICTED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS KS...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WERE THE MAIN
STORY ACROSS THE CWA.
TODAY WILL BE THE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE IMPENDING WINTER
STORM...AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS THE DAY WEARS ON IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS AT
850 MB TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND -3C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO AROUND
+1 IN THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE MINIMAL...WILL AIM FOR
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
GREATER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP THOSE AREAS
FROM GAINING MUCH OF AN ADVANTAGE DESPITE A SLIGHTLY WARMER START.
THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY WILL BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP TONIGHT. THIS IS A RATHER QUICKLY MOVING AND SHALLOW
WAVE ZIPPING ACROSS THE AREA. I HELD BACK ON PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE GENERAL TREND IS
TOWARD A LATER ONSET. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE QUITE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ON FRIDAY HOWEVER. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
BE PRETTY GOOD ON FRIDAY FOR A SHALLOW SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS AND
THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN ADVERTISEMENT OF VERY STRONG MID- LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SETTING UP ON FRIDAY. THE NAM INDICATES THAT
ONCE THE BAND SETS UP OVER MAINLY OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES...THAT IT
WILL PIVOT IN ORIENTATION...SHIFTING MORE SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ALL OF THIS FORCING WILL BE VERY SHORT- LIVED AS THE
WAVE ZIPS ON BY. WE ARE SETTING UP FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT AND
INTENSE SNOWFALL FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE 700 MB LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS ON EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND ON TO
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS IS A PERFECT TRACK FOR
HEAVY SNOW IN OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE. THE NAM
AND ECMWF PUT THE 700 MB LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY
00Z...WHICH AREA A TAD SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WITH
THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE...SNOW SHOULD SHUT OFF RATHER
QUICKLY ON FRIDAY EVENING. BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS UP A BIT IN OUR
NORTH AS THERE IS A TREND FROM THE 06Z NAM FOR THIS AS WAS
MENTIONED EARLIER. ALL IN ALL I EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE CLOSE TO
12 TO 1. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT ON THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY AS IT TRACKS EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS...THUS WIND WILL BE BRISK ENOUGH TO BLOW
SOME SNOW AROUND ONCE IT STARTS ACCUMULATING.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMING TOGETHER A BIT WITH THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHING ON SATURDAY NIGHT...PLACING A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SEEMS TO
DOUBT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...I STILL BUMPED UP CHANCES OF
SNOW IN THIS AREA BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT.
WENT ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED SNOW COVER AND KNOWN WARM BIAS THAT MODELS
TEND TO HAVE WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ005>007.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGID 121248
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
648 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009/
AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS COULD SEE
THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A FAIRLY MAJOR SNOW EVENT SLATED TO IMPACT
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...TODAY WILL SEE
ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AS BREEZES REMAIN
LIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE. VFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. INTRODUCED -SN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
BUT THIS TIMING COULD EASILY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO EITHER WAY.
OF MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT
SOME POINT FRIDAY MORNING AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009/
DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
SPINNING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND THE WELL ADVERTISED
SYSTEM ORGANIZING TO THE WEST OVER CALIFORNIA. AT 09Z...CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS WERE STARTING
TO STREAM INTO WESTERN KANSAS. OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 09Z
DEPICTED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS KS...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WERE THE MAIN
STORY ACROSS THE CWA.
TODAY WILL BE THE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE IMPENDING WINTER
STORM...AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS THE DAY WEARS ON IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS AT
850 MB TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND -3C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO AROUND
+1 IN THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE MINIMAL...WILL AIM FOR
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
GREATER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP THOSE AREAS
FROM GAINING MUCH OF AN ADVANTAGE DESPITE A SLIGHTLY WARMER START.
THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY WILL BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP TONIGHT. THIS IS A RATHER QUICKLY MOVING AND SHALLOW
WAVE ZIPPING ACROSS THE AREA. I HELD BACK ON PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE GENERAL TREND IS
TOWARD A LATER ONSET. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE QUITE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ON FRIDAY HOWEVER. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
BE PRETTY GOOD ON FRIDAY FOR A SHALLOW SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS AND
THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN ADVERTISEMENT OF VERY STRONG MID- LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SETTING UP ON FRIDAY. THE NAM INDICATES THAT
ONCE THE BAND SETS UP OVER MAINLY OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES...THAT IT
WILL PIVOT IN ORIENTATION...SHIFTING MORE SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ALL OF THIS FORCING WILL BE VERY SHORT- LIVED AS THE
WAVE ZIPS ON BY. WE ARE SETTING UP FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT AND
INTENSE SNOWFALL FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE 700 MB LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS ON EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND ON TO
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS IS A PERFECT TRACK FOR
HEAVY SNOW IN OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE. THE NAM
AND ECMWF PUT THE 700 MB LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY
00Z...WHICH AREA A TAD SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WITH
THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE...SNOW SHOULD SHUT OFF RATHER
QUICKLY ON FRIDAY EVENING. BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS UP A BIT IN OUR
NORTH AS THERE IS A TREND FROM THE 06Z NAM FOR THIS AS WAS
MENTIONED EARLIER. ALL IN ALL I EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE CLOSE TO
12 TO 1. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT ON THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY AS IT TRACKS EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS...THUS WIND WILL BE BRISK ENOUGH TO BLOW
SOME SNOW AROUND ONCE IT STARTS ACCUMULATING.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMING TOGETHER A BIT WITH THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHING ON SATURDAY NIGHT...PLACING A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SEEMS TO
DOUBT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...I STILL BUMPED UP CHANCES OF
SNOW IN THIS AREA BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT.
WENT ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED SNOW COVER AND KNOWN WARM BIAS THAT MODELS
TEND TO HAVE WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ005>007.
&&
$$
PFANNKUCH/HEINLEIN
000
FXUS63 KGID 121210
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
610 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009
.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS COULD SEE
THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A FAIRLY MAJOR SNOW EVENT SLATED TO IMPACT
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...TODAY WILL SEE
ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AS BREEZES REMAIN
LIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE. VFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. INTRODUCED -SN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
BUT THIS TIMING COULD EASILY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO EITHER WAY.
OF MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT
SOME POINT FRIDAY MORNING AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009/
DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
SPINNING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND THE WELL ADVERTISED
SYSTEM ORGANIZING TO THE WEST OVER CALIFORNIA. AT 09Z...CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS WERE STARTING
TO STREAM INTO WESTERN KANSAS. OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 09Z
DEPICTED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS KS...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WERE THE MAIN
STORY ACROSS THE CWA.
TODAY WILL BE THE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE IMPENDING WINTER
STORM...AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS THE DAY WEARS ON IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS AT
850 MB TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND -3C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO AROUND
+1 IN THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE MINIMAL...WILL AIM FOR
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
GREATER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP THOSE AREAS
FROM GAINING MUCH OF AN ADVANTAGE DESPITE A SLIGHTLY WARMER START.
THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY WILL BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP TONIGHT. THIS IS A RATHER QUICKLY MOVING AND SHALLOW
WAVE ZIPPING ACROSS THE AREA. I HELD BACK ON PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE GENERAL TREND IS
TOWARD A LATER ONSET. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE QUITE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ON FRIDAY HOWEVER. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
BE PRETTY GOOD ON FRIDAY FOR A SHALLOW SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS AND
THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN ADVERTISEMENT OF VERY STRONG MID- LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SETTING UP ON FRIDAY. ALL OF THIS FORCING
WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS THE WAVE ZIPS ON BY. WE ARE SETTING UP
FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT AND INTENSE SNOWFALL FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS THAT THE 700 MB LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK FROM WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS ON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ON TO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
IS A PERFECT TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW IN OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY ON THE
NEBRASKA SIDE. THE NAM AND ECMWF PUT THE 700 MB LOW IN
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z...WHICH AREA A TAD SLOWER AND FARTHER
NORTH...BUT STILL WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE...SNOW
SHOULD SHUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY ON FRIDAY EVENING. BUMPED UP SNOW
AMOUNTS UP A BIT IN OUR NORTH AS THERE IS A TREND FROM THE 06Z NAM
FOR THIS. ALL IN ALL I EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE CLOSE TO 12 TO 1.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT ON THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY AS IT TRACKS EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS...THUS WIND WILL BE BRISK ENOUGH TO BLOW
SOME SNOW AROUND ONCE IT STARTS ACCUMULATING.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMING TOGETHER A BIT WITH THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHING ON SATURDAY NIGHT...PLACING A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SEEMS TO
DOUBT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...I STILL BUMPED UP CHANCES OF
SNOW IN THIS AREA BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT.
WENT ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED SNOW COVER AND KNOWN WARM BIAS THAT MODELS
TEND TO HAVE WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ005>007.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HEINLEIN/PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
000
FXUS63 KGID 121155
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
555 AM CST THU FEB 12 2009
.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
SPINNING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND THE WELL ADVERTISED
SYSTEM ORGANIZING TO THE WEST OVER CALIFORNIA. AT 09Z...CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS WERE STARTING
TO STREAM INTO WESTERN KANSAS. OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 09Z
DEPICTED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS KS...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WERE THE MAIN
STORY ACROSS THE CWA.
TODAY WILL BE THE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE IMPENDING WINTER
STORM...AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS THE DAY WEARS ON IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS AT
850 MB TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND -3C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO AROUND
+1 IN THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE MINIMAL...WILL AIM FOR
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
GREATER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP THOSE AREAS
FROM GAINING MUCH OF AN ADVANTAGE DESPITE A SLIGHTLY WARMER START.
THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY WILL BE ON
OUR DOORSTEP TONIGHT. THIS IS A RATHER QUICKLY MOVING AND SHALLOW
WAVE ZIPPING ACROSS THE AREA. I HELD BACK ON PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE GENERAL TREND IS
TOWARD A LATER ONSET. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE QUITE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ON FRIDAY HOWEVER. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
BE PRETTY GOOD ON FRIDAY FOR A SHALLOW SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS AND
THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN ADVERTISEMENT OF VERY STRONG MID- LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SETTING UP ON FRIDAY. ALL OF THIS FORCING
WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS THE WAVE ZIPS ON BY. WE ARE SETTING UP
FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT AND INTENSE SNOWFALL FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS THAT THE 700 MB LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK FROM WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS ON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ON TO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS
IS A PERFECT TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW IN OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY ON THE
NEBRASKA SIDE. THE NAM AND ECMWF PUT THE 700 MB LOW IN
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z...WHICH AREA A TAD SLOWER AND FARTHER
NORTH...BUT STILL WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE...SNOW
SHOULD SHUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY ON FRIDAY EVENING. BUMPED UP SNOW
AMOUNTS UP A BIT IN OUR NORTH AS THERE IS A TREND FROM THE 06Z NAM
FOR THIS. ALL IN ALL I EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE CLOSE TO 12 TO 1.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT ON THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY AS IT TRACKS EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS...THUS WIND WILL BE BRISK ENOUGH TO BLOW
SOME SNOW AROUND ONCE IT STARTS ACCUMULATING.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMING TOGETHER A BIT WITH THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHING ON SATURDAY NIGHT...PLACING A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SEEMS TO
DOUBT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...I STILL BUMPED UP CHANCES OF
SNOW IN THIS AREA BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT.
WENT ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED SNOW COVER AND KNOWN WARM BIAS THAT MODELS
TEND TO HAVE WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009/
AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SERVING AS THE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE WELL ADVERTISED
WINTER STORM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL EXIST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. BREEZES WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE. ALTHOUGH SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KGRI UNTIL
AFTER THIS TAF VALID TIME...VFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN LOWERING THURSDAY
EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ005>007.
&&
$$
PFANNKUCH/HEINLEIN
000
FXUS63 KGID 120522
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1122 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009
.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SERVING AS THE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE WELL ADVERTISED
WINTER STORM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL EXIST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. BREEZES WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE. ALTHOUGH SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KGRI UNTIL
AFTER THIS TAF VALID TIME...VFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN LOWERING THURSDAY
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. MAIN FOCUS IS ON POTENT WINTER
STORM TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS OF NOTE TODAY...ONE PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
OTHER CHURNING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM OR INTO NORTHERN CA.
THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS TURNED
QUASI-ZONAL BETWEEN THESE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...WITH A MUCH WEAKER
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NE GENERATING SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN STEADILY
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM NOW
PUSHING INTO THE OH VALLEY MOVES PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION...AND SHOULD SEE NORTHWEST WINDS DROP OFF QUICKLY BY EARLY
EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES.
AS WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PRESS EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IT WILL BRING INCREASING MID CLOUDS
FROM WEST TO EAST BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP GIVEN WEAK FORCING
AND 20-25 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 20S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEAST OVER CA TONIGHT...BEFORE ROUNDING THE BEND AND EJECTING
EAST/NORTHEAST TOMORROW TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY TOMORROW
EVENING. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY FURTHER
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 40S TOMORROW. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION
STARTING ACROSS THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY AROUND 09Z OR
SO. CENTER OF H7 CLOSED LOW TRACKS TO NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL
CO/NORTHWEST KS BORDER BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS PLACES THE CWA UNDER
INCREASING MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN AT
THE VERY ONSET OF THE EVENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT SUPPORT ALL
SNOW FOR THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FORCING ACTING WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A BAND OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH A
CORRIDOR FROM THE NE/KS STATE LINE TO INTERSTATE 80 LOOKING MOST
FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE
CURRENT STORM TRACK. TIGHTENING GRADIENT TO NORTH OF SURFACE LOW
WILL SUPPORT 15-25 MPH WINDS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SNOW. WINTER STORM
WATCH ISSUED EARLIER BEGINNING 09Z FRIDAY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN
ROW OF KS COUNTIES.
LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
VERY ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK STILL EXPECTED AS THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO TRACK A POTENT CLOSED CIRCULATION ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE 700-500MB LOW FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE THE GID FORECAST AREA DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
700-600MB LAYER THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. THIS MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG
WITH GOOD MOISTURE STREAMING BACK NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ALMOST 24 TO 30 HOURS AHEAD OF THE EVENT...SHOULD ALLOW WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP UNDER THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION. ALTHOUGH
IT/S A LITTLE EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY WHERE THE MAIN PRECIP BAND
WILL DEVELOP...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEVERAL MILES EITHER SIDE OF A HOLDREGE TO
YORK LINE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPERATURES VERY SUPPORTIVE
FOR SNOW WITH THE 0C 850MB LINE STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILE
SURFACE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THIS ALONG WITH NEGATIVE EPV
VALUES SHOWN WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND IS PRODUCING SOME VERY
HIGH MODEL QPF AMOUNTS. GIVEN A SNOW RATIO BETWEEN 10/15 TO
1...SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE SHOWN BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BUT DECREASING TO 3
TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS COULD
PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING PROBLEMS. THIS WAS ENOUGH EVIDENCE
THAT A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BUT
ROOKS...OSBORNE AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KANSAS FROM 09Z THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING FLURRIES DURING THE EARLY EVENING ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER WAVE MOVES QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS QUICK AS IT TURNS
QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT IT WILL TURN ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAKER AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE WAVE ON FRIDAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD EXIST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH MOVING ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED THE WAVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
GIVEN THIS INCONSISTENCY...WILL OPT TO MAKE MINIMAL CHANGES AT THIS
POINT WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007.
&&
$$
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
000
FXUS63 KGID 112343
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
543 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009
.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. QUIET WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
AT THE KGRI TERMINAL THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AHEAD OF ADVANCING STORM SYSTEM BUT EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK RIGHT OVER
KGRI ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY EVENING AS SFC HIGH MOVES EAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. MAIN FOCUS IS ON POTENT WINTER
STORM TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS OF NOTE TODAY...ONE PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
OTHER CHURNING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM OR INTO NORTHERN CA.
THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS TURNED
QUASI-ZONAL BETWEEN THESE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...WITH A MUCH WEAKER
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NE GENERATING SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN STEADILY
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM NOW
PUSHING INTO THE OH VALLEY MOVES PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION...AND SHOULD SEE NORTHWEST WINDS DROP OFF QUICKLY BY EARLY
EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES.
AS WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PRESS EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IT WILL BRING INCREASING MID CLOUDS
FROM WEST TO EAST BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP GIVEN WEAK FORCING
AND 20-25 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 20S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEAST OVER CA TONIGHT...BEFORE ROUNDING THE BEND AND EJECTING
EAST/NORTHEAST TOMORROW TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY TOMORROW
EVENING. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY FURTHER
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 40S TOMORROW. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION
STARTING ACROSS THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY AROUND 09Z OR
SO. CENTER OF H7 CLOSED LOW TRACKS TO NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL
CO/NORTHWEST KS BORDER BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS PLACES THE CWA UNDER
INCREASING MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN AT
THE VERY ONSET OF THE EVENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT SUPPORT ALL
SNOW FOR THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FORCING ACTING WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A BAND OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH A
CORRIDOR FROM THE NE/KS STATE LINE TO INTERSTATE 80 LOOKING MOST
FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE
CURRENT STORM TRACK. TIGHTENING GRADIENT TO NORTH OF SURFACE LOW
WILL SUPPORT 15-25 MPH WINDS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SNOW. WINTER STORM
WATCH ISSUED EARLIER BEGINNING 09Z FRIDAY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN
ROW OF KS COUNTIES.
LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
VERY ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK STILL EXPECTED AS THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO TRACK A POTENT CLOSED CIRCULATION ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE 700-500MB LOW FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE THE GID FORECAST AREA DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
700-600MB LAYER THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. THIS MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG
WITH GOOD MOISTURE STREAMING BACK NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ALMOST 24 TO 30 HOURS AHEAD OF THE EVENT...SHOULD ALLOW WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP UNDER THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION. ALTHOUGH
IT/S A LITTLE EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY WHERE THE MAIN PRECIP BAND
WILL DEVELOP...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEVERAL MILES EITHER SIDE OF A HOLDREGE TO
YORK LINE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPERATURES VERY SUPPORTIVE
FOR SNOW WITH THE 0C 850MB LINE STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILE
SURFACE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THIS ALONG WITH NEGATIVE EPV
VALUES SHOWN WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND IS PRODUCING SOME VERY
HIGH MODEL QPF AMOUNTS. GIVEN A SNOW RATIO BETWEEN 10/15 TO
1...SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE SHOWN BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BUT DECREASING TO 3
TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS COULD
PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING PROBLEMS. THIS WAS ENOUGH EVIDENCE
THAT A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BUT
ROOKS...OSBORNE AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KANSAS FROM 09Z THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING FLURRIES DURING THE EARLY EVENING ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER WAVE MOVES QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS QUICK AS IT TURNS
QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT IT WILL TURN ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAKER AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE WAVE ON FRIDAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD EXIST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH MOVING ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED THE WAVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
GIVEN THIS INCONSISTENCY...WILL OPT TO MAKE MINIMAL CHANGES AT THIS
POINT WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGID 112144
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
344 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. MAIN FOCUS IS ON POTENT WINTER
STORM TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS OF NOTE TODAY...ONE PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
OTHER CHURNING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM OR INTO NORTHERN CA.
THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS TURNED
QUASI-ZONAL BETWEEN THESE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS...WITH A MUCH WEAKER
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NE GENERATING SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN STEADILY
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM NOW
PUSHING INTO THE OH VALLEY MOVES PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION...AND SHOULD SEE NORTHWEST WINDS DROP OFF QUICKLY BY EARLY
EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES.
AS WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PRESS EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IT WILL BRING INCREASING MID CLOUDS
FROM WEST TO EAST BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP GIVEN WEAK FORCING
AND 20-25 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 20S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEAST OVER CA TONIGHT...BEFORE ROUNDING THE BEND AND EJECTING
EAST/NORTHEAST TOMORROW TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY TOMORROW
EVENING. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY FURTHER
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 40S TOMORROW. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION
STARTING ACROSS THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...LIKELY AROUND 09Z OR
SO. CENTER OF H7 CLOSED LOW TRACKS TO NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL
CO/NORTHWEST KS BORDER BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS PLACES THE CWA UNDER
INCREASING MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN AT
THE VERY ONSET OF THE EVENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT SUPPORT ALL
SNOW FOR THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FORCING ACTING WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A BAND OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH A
CORRIDOR FROM THE NE/KS STATE LINE TO INTERSTATE 80 LOOKING MOST
FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE
CURRENT STORM TRACK. TIGHTENING GRADIENT TO NORTH OF SURFACE LOW
WILL SUPPORT 15-25 MPH WINDS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SNOW. WINTER STORM
WATCH ISSUED EARLIER BEGINNING 09Z FRIDAY FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN
ROW OF KS COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
VERY ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK STILL EXPECTED AS THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO TRACK A POTENT CLOSED CIRCULATION ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE 700-500MB LOW FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE THE GID FORECAST AREA DIRECTLY UNDER
STRONG MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
700-600MB LAYER THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. THIS MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG
WITH GOOD MOISTURE STREAMING BACK NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ALMOST 24 TO 30 HOURS AHEAD OF THE EVENT...SHOULD ALLOW WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP UNDER THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION. ALTHOUGH
IT/S A LITTLE EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY WHERE THE MAIN PRECIP BAND
WILL DEVELOP...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEVERAL MILES EITHER SIDE OF A HOLDREGE TO
YORK LINE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPERATURES VERY SUPPORTIVE
FOR SNOW WITH THE 0C 850MB LINE STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILE
SURFACE TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THIS ALONG WITH NEGATIVE EPV
VALUES SHOWN WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND IS PRODUCING SOME VERY
HIGH MODEL QPF AMOUNTS. GIVEN A SNOW RATIO BETWEEN 10/15 TO
1...SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE SHOWN BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BUT DECREASING TO 3
TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS COULD
PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING PROBLEMS. THIS WAS ENOUGH EVIDENCE
THAT A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BUT
ROOKS...OSBORNE AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KANSAS FROM 09Z THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING.
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING FLURRIES DURING THE EARLY EVENING ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER WAVE MOVES QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS QUICK AS IT TURNS
QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT IT WILL TURN ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAKER AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE WAVE ON FRIDAY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD EXIST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH MOVING ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SHIFTED THE WAVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
GIVEN THIS INCONSISTENCY...WILL OPT TO MAKE MINIMAL CHANGES AT THIS
POINT WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KTS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STEADILY WEAKENS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF WY/CO WILL BRING SOME MID-CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THESE WILL REMAIN VFR.
LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGID 111718
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1118 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KTS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STEADILY WEAKENS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF WY/CO WILL BRING SOME MID-CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THESE WILL REMAIN VFR.
LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009/
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND A STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS INDICATE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR HAS A FEW RAIN SHOWERS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE
RAIN..BUT RAIN SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND THAT WILL BRING THE END TO
THE PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE KEEPS A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS ARE JUST NOT REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO HAVE CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY.
DURING THE DAY THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WINDS DECREASE. THE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA DECREASES AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 50 WITHOUT MUCH TROUBLE AS THE SUN
COMES OUT. TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
ON THURSDAY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN KANSAS. THIS
WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY...TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE AS WELL AS MILD TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND COME TO AN END WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO
THE EAST. MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR WITH FAIRLY LARGE QUANTITIES OF QPF
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BAND OF SNOW
SETTING UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OR POSSIBLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. TIMING AND TRACK ARE STILL JUST A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN SINCE IT IS A COUPLE DAYS AWAY...BUT EXPECT SNOW AND THERE
WILL BE SOME WIND WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. MADE
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO SATURDAY AND BEYOND.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGID 111234
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
634 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009
.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND MAY
BECOME A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING. WIND WILL WANE
QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009/
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND A STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS INDICATE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR HAS A FEW RAIN SHOWERS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE
RAIN..BUT RAIN SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND THAT WILL BRING THE END TO
THE PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE KEEPS A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS ARE JUST NOT REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY.
DURING THE DAY THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WINDS DECREASE. THE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA DECREASES AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 50 WITHOUT MUCH TROUBLE AS THE SUN
COMES OUT. TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
ON THURSDAY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN KANSAS. THIS
WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY...TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE AS WELL AS MILD TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND COME TO AN END WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO
THE EAST. MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR WITH FAIRLY LARGE QUANTITIES OF QPF
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BAND OF SNOW
SETTING UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OR POSSIBLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. TIMING AND TRACK ARE STILL JUST A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN SINCE IT IS A COUPLE DAYS AWAY...BUT EXPECT SNOW AND THERE
WILL BE SOME WIND WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. MADE
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO SATURDAY AND BEYOND.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/
AVIATION...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WILL BE CEILINGS AND WINDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IT APPEARS
THEY COULD REACH KGRI FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING
OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHEN THEY ARRIVE AT KGRI THEY SHOULD
BE AROUND 3KFT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES TIGHTER. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED MIXING...BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARDS SUNSET AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
000
FXUS63 KGID 111036
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
436 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND A STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS INDICATE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE CURRENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR HAS A FEW RAIN SHOWERS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE
RAIN..BUT RAIN SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND THAT WILL BRING THE END TO
THE PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE KEEPS A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS ARE JUST NOT REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY.
DURING THE DAY THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WINDS DECREASE. THE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA DECREASES AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 50 WITHOUT MUCH TROUBLE AS THE SUN
COMES OUT. TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
ON THURSDAY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN KANSAS. THIS
WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY...TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE AS WELL AS MILD TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND COME TO AN END WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO
THE EAST. MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR WITH FAIRLY LARGE QUANTITIES OF QPF
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A BAND OF SNOW
SETTING UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OR POSSIBLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. TIMING AND TRACK ARE STILL JUST A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN SINCE IT IS A COUPLE DAYS AWAY...BUT EXPECT SNOW AND THERE
WILL BE SOME WIND WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. MADE
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO SATURDAY AND BEYOND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/
AVIATION...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WILL BE CEILINGS AND WINDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IT APPEARS
THEY COULD REACH KGRI FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING
OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHEN THEY ARRIVE AT KGRI THEY SHOULD
BE AROUND 3KFT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES TIGHTER. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED MIXING...BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARDS SUNSET AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGID 110452
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1052 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
.AVIATION...THE PRIMARY ISSUE WILL BE CEILINGS AND WINDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IT APPEARS
THEY COULD REACH KGRI FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING
OUT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHEN THEY ARRIVE AT KGRI THEY SHOULD
BE AROUND 3KFT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES TIGHTER. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED MIXING...BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARDS SUNSET AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...AS THE REGION SITS UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. THE
FIRST...WHICH BROUGHT OUR PRECIP YESTERDAY...HAS MOVED WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND SITS OVER MN. THE SECOND...WHICH WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT OF PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TONIGHT...CURRENTLY SITS NEAR THE
WESTERN CO/NM BORDER. AT THE SFC...AHEAD OF THIS SW SYSTEM...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CO. FOR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AT 06Z SITTING OVER THE OK/TX
BORDER...AND CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST TO THE KS/OK/MO BORDER BY 12Z
WED. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH BEST
CHANCES REMAINING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GENEVA TO HOLDREGE. STILL
EXPECTING PRECIP TO START OUT AS LIQUID...WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS WED MORNING. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL
GOES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT LIES WITH INCREASING WINDS. AS THE SFC LOW CROSSES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE PICKING UP...AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION COULD HELP
TO PULL SOME OF THAT SPEED DOWN TO THE SFC. WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL BE NEAR THAT 30MPH MARK...AM MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR/ABOVE 45 MPH. ONLY NEED ONE INSTANTANEOUS
GUST AOA 45MPH TO HIT CRITERIA. WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADV FOR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT/INTO EARLY TOM
MORNING...WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LIE AND THE SFC GRADIENT
WILL BE TIGHTER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WED...AND
KEPT FORECAST DRY...EXPECTING BY 12Z PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
SHIFTED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. REST OF WED AND WED
NIGHT REMAIN DRY...AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AT THE SFC. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY WED EVENING. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES GO...COOLER AIR DOES GET PULLED DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HIGHS FOR TOMORROW REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH
TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
LONG TERM...12Z THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE DAY...BUT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S LOOK
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SMALL BUT POTENT CLOSED CIRCULATION PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...THE NAM AND ECMWF
GENERALLY ARE TRACKING THE 700-500MB CIRCULATION NEAR THE
KANSAS...NEBRASKA STATE LINE WHILE THE GFS IS MORE ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS WILL PLACE THE GID FORECAST AREA DIRECTLY UNDER STRONG MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS FROM AROUND 09Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 21-23Z FRIDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE GULF BEING WIDE
OPEN TO MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BIG
PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALTHOUGH IT/S STILL EARLY TO NAIL DOWN THERMAL
PROFILES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR
SNOW. THIS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCES SCARY MODEL QPF AMOUNTS WITH SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
SHOWN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SNOW TOTALS CLOSER TO 3 TO 6
INCHES FOR NOW...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE DOWN THIS SAME PATH
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE DOUBLED. THIS SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG
WITH SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS HAS ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL WORD HWO FOR
POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY...SATURDAY BECOMES A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN
THE EXITING CLOSED CIRCULATION AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT WITH SNOW STILL ON
THE GROUND AND CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE...IT SHOULD BE A COLD
DAY. LOOKING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE WAVE ON FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR SUNDAY AS WELL ALTHOUGH WILL STILL AIM FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S.
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SURPRISINGLY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR PRODUCING A THIRD CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT RIPS
OUT OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...AS USUAL WITH THE
MODELS BEYOND 120 HOURS...THE TRACK OF THE CIRCULATION IS DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. WILL
NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ006-007-017>019.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGID 102315
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
515 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAF. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW VFR CONDITIONS AT KGRI
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER THE STORY IS NOT QUITE AS
SIMPLE AS THAT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES EXPECT
CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER...AND HAVE BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 4KFT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS IN THE 18Z NAM
AND GFS THAT CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT NOT YET CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
PUT THAT INTO THE FORECAST. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...AND ONCE THEY BECOME GUSTY...THEY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE
THAT WAY INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...AS THE REGION SITS UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. THE
FIRST...WHICH BROUGHT OUR PRECIP YESTERDAY...HAS MOVED WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND SITS OVER MN. THE SECOND...WHICH WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT OF PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TONIGHT...CURRENTLY SITS NEAR THE
WESTERN CO/NM BORDER. AT THE SFC...AHEAD OF THIS SW SYSTEM...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CO. FOR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AT 06Z SITTING OVER THE OK/TX
BORDER...AND CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST TO THE KS/OK/MO BORDER BY 12Z
WED. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH BEST
CHANCES REMAINING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GENEVA TO HOLDREGE. STILL
EXPECTING PRECIP TO START OUT AS LIQUID...WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS WED MORNING. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL
GOES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT LIES WITH INCREASING WINDS. AS THE SFC LOW CROSSES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE PICKING UP...AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION COULD HELP
TO PULL SOME OF THAT SPEED DOWN TO THE SFC. WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL BE NEAR THAT 30MPH MARK...AM MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR/ABOVE 45 MPH. ONLY NEED ONE INSTANTANEOUS
GUST AOA 45MPH TO HIT CRITERIA. WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADV FOR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT/INTO EARLY TOM
MORNING...WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LIE AND THE SFC GRADIENT
WILL BE TIGHTER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WED...AND
KEPT FORECAST DRY...EXPECTING BY 12Z PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
SHIFTED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. REST OF WED AND WED
NIGHT REMAIN DRY...AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AT THE SFC. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY WED EVENING. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES GO...COOLER AIR DOES GET PULLED DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HIGHS FOR TOMORROW REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH
TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
LONG TERM...12Z THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE DAY...BUT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S LOOK
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SMALL BUT POTENT CLOSED CIRCULATION PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...THE NAM AND ECMWF
GENERALLY ARE TRACKING THE 700-500MB CIRCULATION NEAR THE
KANSAS...NEBRASKA STATE LINE WHILE THE GFS IS MORE ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS WILL PLACE THE GID FORECAST AREA DIRECTLY UNDER STRONG MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS FROM AROUND 09Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 21-23Z FRIDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE GULF BEING WIDE
OPEN TO MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BIG
PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALTHOUGH IT/S STILL EARLY TO NAIL DOWN THERMAL
PROFILES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR
SNOW. THIS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCES SCARY MODEL QPF AMOUNTS WITH SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
SHOWN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SNOW TOTALS CLOSER TO 3 TO 6
INCHES FOR NOW...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE DOWN THIS SAME PATH
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE DOUBLED. THIS SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG
WITH SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS HAS ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL WORD HWO FOR
POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY...SATURDAY BECOMES A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN
THE EXITING CLOSED CIRCULATION AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT WITH SNOW STILL ON
THE GROUND AND CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE...IT SHOULD BE A COLD
DAY. LOOKING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE WAVE ON FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR SUNDAY AS WELL ALTHOUGH WILL STILL AIM FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S.
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SURPRISINGLY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR PRODUCING A THIRD CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT RIPS
OUT OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...AS USUAL WITH THE
MODELS BEYOND 120 HOURS...THE TRACK OF THE CIRCULATION IS DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. WILL
NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ006-007-017>019.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGID 102142
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
342 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...AS THE REGION SITS UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. THE
FIRST...WHICH BROUGHT OUR PRECIP YESTERDAY...HAS MOVED WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND SITS OVER MN. THE SECOND...WHICH WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT OF PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TONIGHT...CURRENTLY SITS NEAR THE
WESTERN CO/NM BORDER. AT THE SFC...AHEAD OF THIS SW SYSTEM...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CO. FOR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AT 06Z SITTING OVER THE OK/TX
BORDER...AND CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST TO THE KS/OK/MO BORDER BY 12Z
WED. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH BEST
CHANCES REMAINING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GENEVA TO HOLDREGE. STILL
EXPECTING PRECIP TO START OUT AS LIQUID...WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS WED MORNING. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL
GOES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT LIES WITH INCREASING WINDS. AS THE SFC LOW CROSSES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE PICKING UP...AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION COULD HELP
TO PULL SOME OF THAT SPEED DOWN TO THE SFC. WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL BE NEAR THAT 30MPH MARK...AM MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR/ABOVE 45 MPH. ONLY NEED ONE INSTANTANEOUS
GUST AOA 45MPH TO HIT CRITERIA. WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADV FOR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT/INTO EARLY TOM
MORNING...WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LIE AND THE SFC GRADIENT
WILL BE TIGHTER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WED...AND
KEPT FORECAST DRY...EXPECTING BY 12Z PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
SHIFTED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. REST OF WED AND WED
NIGHT REMAIN DRY...AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AT THE SFC. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY WED EVENING. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES GO...COOLER AIR DOES GET PULLED DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT HIGHS FOR TOMORROW REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH
TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...12Z THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE DAY...BUT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S LOOK
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SMALL BUT POTENT CLOSED CIRCULATION PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...THE NAM AND ECMWF
GENERALLY ARE TRACKING THE 700-500MB CIRCULATION NEAR THE
KANSAS...NEBRASKA STATE LINE WHILE THE GFS IS MORE ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS WILL PLACE THE GID FORECAST AREA DIRECTLY UNDER STRONG MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION AND RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS FROM AROUND 09Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 21-23Z FRIDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE GULF BEING WIDE
OPEN TO MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BIG
PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALTHOUGH IT/S STILL EARLY TO NAIL DOWN THERMAL
PROFILES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR
SNOW. THIS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PRODUCES SCARY MODEL QPF AMOUNTS WITH SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
SHOWN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SNOW TOTALS CLOSER TO 3 TO 6
INCHES FOR NOW...BUT IF THE MODELS CONTINUE DOWN THIS SAME PATH
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE DOUBLED. THIS SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG
WITH SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS HAS ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL WORD HWO FOR
POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY...SATURDAY BECOMES A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN
THE EXITING CLOSED CIRCULATION AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT WITH SNOW STILL ON
THE GROUND AND CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE...IT SHOULD BE A COLD
DAY. LOOKING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE WAVE ON FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR SUNDAY AS WELL ALTHOUGH WILL STILL AIM FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S.
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SURPRISINGLY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR PRODUCING A THIRD CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT RIPS
OUT OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...AS USUAL WITH THE
MODELS BEYOND 120 HOURS...THE TRACK OF THE CIRCULATION IS DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. WILL
NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF. QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL START TO INCREASE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GRI TERMINAL. ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANGE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...CAUSING
AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS TO NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN...BUT DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY...TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ006-007-017>019.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGID 101727
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1127 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAF. QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL START TO INCREASE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GRI TERMINAL. ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANGE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...CAUSING
AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS TO NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN...BUT DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY...TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY A FEW CLOUDS LEFT FROM THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT THAT MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. LATER TODAY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT A FRONTOGENETIC BAND SETS
UP IN NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE A LITTLE CONCERN THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE AREA WILL BE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW SINCE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. AS
THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AREA COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN AND SNOW MIXED AS THE
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF LATE TONIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. SOME MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WARM...BUT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN TODAY. THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MADE NO CHANGES TO FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 PM CST MON FEB 9 2009/
AVIATION...06Z TAF. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE AT KGRI...BUT THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BE VFR...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW MID OR HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGID 101727
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1127 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAF. QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL START TO INCREASE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GRI TERMINAL. ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANGE TO NORTHERLY WINDS. THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...CAUSING
AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS TO NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN...BUT DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY...TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY A FEW CLOUDS LEFT FROM THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT THAT MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. LATER TODAY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT A FRONTOGENETIC BAND SETS
UP IN NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE A LITTLE CONCERN THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE AREA WILL BE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW SINCE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. AS
THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AREA COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN AND SNOW MIXED AS THE
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF LATE TONIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. SOME MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WARM...BUT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN TODAY. THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MADE NO CHANGES TO FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 PM CST MON FEB 9 2009/
AVIATION...06Z TAF. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE AT KGRI...BUT THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BE VFR...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW MID OR HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGID 101144
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
544 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST. WIND WILL VEER FROM A WEST SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO A
NORTH DIRECTION DURING THE DAY. NO NEW FROM GROUPS INDICATE THIS
TRANSITION DURING THE DAY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE PREDICTED TO BE LESS
THAN 10 KTS. BY TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP A BIT WITH A MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS BORDER. THIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY A FEW CLOUDS LEFT FROM THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT THAT MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. LATER TODAY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT A FRONTOGENETIC BAND SETS
UP IN NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE A LITTLE CONCERN THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE AREA WILL BE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW SINCE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. AS
THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AREA COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN AND SNOW MIXED AS THE
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF LATE TONIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. SOME MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WARM...BUT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN TODAY. THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MADE NO CHANGES TO FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 PM CST MON FEB 9 2009/
AVIATION...06Z TAF. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE AT KGRI...BUT THEY
SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BE VFR...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW MID OR HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
| 
