AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1015 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004 .UPDATE... REWORKING TONIGHTS FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT PRECIPITATION PATTERN. SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING. RUC SHOWING MOST UNSTABLE AIR SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST PART OF CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA OTHERWISE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE SHOWERS REST OF NIGHT EXCEPT IN SOUTHWEST PART OF CWA WHERE WILL DROP MENTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP THE PATCHY FOG IN SINCE GOOD PORTION OF CWA HAD SOME RAIN TODAY. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. && .ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 630 PM EST MON JUN 7 2004 .AVIATION... SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART. VFR EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AROUND AND JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. && .SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL KEEP ANY CHANCE OF SH/TSRA UNTIL TUE LATE. WITH DECENT NVA AND NO TRIGGER MECHANISM TOOK MENTION OF SHRA ACTIVITY OUT OF TUE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. GFS HINTING AT ACTIVITY BUT H70 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TOO FAR NORTH OVER MO MAKING FOR A MECHANISM FOR PRECIP TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON OVER IL. THE ETA HAS H70 SHORTWAVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER OK AND KS...AND THIS MAKES MORE SENSE AS PRECIP IS CONFINED THERE. ETA SHOWS FOCUS MAINLY OVER IA...IL AND WI FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND IS HANDLING THE CLOSED LOW OVER OK BETTER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RUC40 IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ETA SHORT TERM. H85 JET WILL SURGE INTO SW IA BY 12Z TUE AND BRING LOWER 70 DEWS INTO AT LEAST MY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA TUE. EXPERIMENTAL WAM NUMBERS IN THE LOW 90S AND MET AND MAV RIGHT BEHIND IN UPPER 80S. MODELS A LITTLE SLUGGISH WITH ACTUAL INCREASE IN DEW POINTS OVER IL MO AND IA THAN PROGGED. IF DEWS PUSH MORE INTO THE 70S IN MY CWA TUE IT WILL BE TOUGHER TO GET INTO THE LOWER 90S...SO WENT WITH A BLEND. MOSTLY SUNNY TO START THE DAY AND BY 16-18Z CU SHOULD DEVELOP. && .LONG TERM... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTH AS SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH TRIES TO BUILD IN SOMEWHAT. NOT A MAJOR PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT...SO STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT MOVES. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDS AFTN/NGT WITH LINGERING PRECIP THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE WENT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT NOTHING STANDS OUT IMMEDIATELY THAT WARRANTS ANY ZONE MENTION. WILL STILL BE WARM AND MUGGY ON WEDS AND LIKELY THURS AS CLOUD COVER AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THURS AND FRI COULD SEE A RATHER LARGE VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH UPR 70S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND MID-UPR 80S SOUTH. FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH ON FRI WITH CONTINUING CHC OF PRECIP. SATURDAY COULD END UP DRY AS FRONT MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST. DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL NOT DROP MENTION OF PRECIP. COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR AND CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIP. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 230 PM EST MON JUN 7 2004 .SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL KEEP ANY CHANCE OF SH/TSRA UNTIL TUE LATE. WITH DECENT NVA AND NO TRIGGER MECHANISM TOOK MENTION OF SHRA ACTIVITY OUT OF TUE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. GFS HINTING AT ACTIVITY BUT H70 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TOO FAR NORTH OVER MO MAKING FOR A MECHANISM FOR PRECIP TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON OVER IL. THE ETA HAS H70 SHORTWAVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER OK AND KS...AND THIS MAKES MORE SENSE AS PRECIP IS CONFINED THERE. ETA SHOWS FOCUS MAINLY OVER IA...IL AND WI FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND IS HANDLING THE CLOSED LOW OVER OK BETTER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RUC40 IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ETA SHORT TERM. H85 JET WILL SURGE INTO SW IA BY 12Z TUE AND BRING LOWER 70 DEWS INTO AT LEAST MY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA TUE. EXPERIMENTAL WAM NUMBERS IN THE LOW 90S AND MET AND MAV RIGHT BEHIND IN UPPER 80S. MODELS A LITTLE SLUGGISH WITH ACTUAL INCREASE IN DEW POINTS OVER IL MO AND IA THAN PROGGED. IF DEWS PUSH MORE INTO THE 70S IN MY CWA TUE IT WILL BE TOUGHER TO GET INTO THE LOWER 90S...SO WENT WITH A BLEND. MOSTLY SUNNY TO START THE DAY AND BY 16-18Z CU SHOULD DEVELOP. && .LONG TERM... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTH AS SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH TRIES TO BUILD IN SOMEWHAT. NOT A MAJOR PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT...SO STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT MOVES. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDS AFTN/NGT WITH LINGERING PRECIP THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE WENT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT NOTHING STANDS OUT IMMEDIATELY THAT WARRANTS ANY ZONE MENTION. WILL STILL BE WARM AND MUGGY ON WEDS AND LIKELY THURS AS CLOUD COVER AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THURS AND FRI COULD SEE A RATHER LARGE VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH UPR 70S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND MID-UPR 80S SOUTH. FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH ON FRI WITH CONTINUING CHC OF PRECIP. SATURDAY COULD END UP DRY AS FRONT MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST. DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL NOT DROP MENTION OF PRECIP. COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR AND CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIP. && .AVIATION... VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AND SFC HIGH WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES. SCT CU DECK AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12KTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THEN CLEAR SKIES WINDS LT 10KTS FOR TONIGHT. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ WAMSLEY/LOGSDON/FISHER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 952 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL AGAIN AND IF THERE WILL BE ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS NEAR THE MCV. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING AN ILL DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT (MCV) SITTING IN EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. THIS VORT CONTINUES TO INDUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PROFILER TRENDS OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 HOURS HAS SHOWN THE FLOW VEERING OUT BETWEEN 2 AND 4KM IN EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS A RESULT, I AM A BIT HESITANT TO YANK OUT POPS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. BOTH THE RUC/ETA ARE ALSO DEPICTING SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THAT REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY STIR UP A SHOWER OR TWO. OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS MAY INVADE US AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND TAKE CEILINGS DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. WOULD EXPECT THE CIGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY SOMETIME AFTER 08Z. COX --------------------------------------------------------------------- 330 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004 .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CONCERNS TDY INCLUDE PRECIP CHC TNGT IN SERN KS, TEMPS AND PRECIP CHCS AGAIN THU. TNGT: PESKY MCV FLOATING ACROSS ERN OK PRODUCING WDLY SCT SHRA AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NE INTO SERN KS. RUC/M-ETA TAKES THIS VORT MAX ACROSS SERN KS THIS EVE. WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT, WILL INSERT SOME LOW POPS IN SERN KS FOR A WDLY SCT SHRA CHC. MODELS DO SHOW THIS MVC WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NE, SO WILL SEE SCT SHRA CHC COME TO AN END BY EARLY WED. WE'LL SEE MOSTLY CLR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. TUE-WED: SHEAR ZONE CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS SERN KS ON TUES AND WED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING CAP BREAKING DOWN IN THE AFTN HOURS. SO EXPECT A REPEAT OF THE WDLY SCT SHRA IN SERN KS AGAIN BOTH DAYS. MOST OF THE SHRA WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE SO WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE NIGHTTIME, HIGHER DURING THE DAY. CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THE SHEAR ZONE COULD MAKE TEMPS RATHER TRICKY WITH AREAS WITH LESS CLOUDS 5 DEGS WARMER OF COURSE. GUID TEMPS VARY WIDELY BUT PREFER TO GO WITH COOLER NUMBERS EAST AND WARMER ONES WEST WITH CLOUD COVER DIFFERENCES. THU-THU NIGHT: MODELS SIMILAR WITH BRINGING THE ROCKIES S/WV INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE THU AFTN, WITH A NICE DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS WRN KS. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT, BUT SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST SVR WX THREAT FOR WRK SECTION BY THE EVE HOURS. WILL KEEP POPS GOING IN MOST LOCATIONS STARTING THU EVE AS THIS SYS MOVES ACROSS KS INTO FRI. FRI-MON: SFC SYSTEM STALL OUTS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME MORES PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. IMPULSES HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN THE GREATEST CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE, SO WILL GO WITH LOW POPS THROUGH SUN. ECM SHOWS SYSTEM PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH INTO OK ON MON WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD...SO WILL END POPS ON MON WITH THIS IN MIND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA 72 92 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 HUTCHINSON 71 93 70 90 / 10 5 10 10 NEWTON 71 92 70 88 / 10 10 10 10 ELDORADO 71 90 70 88 / 10 10 10 10 STROTHER FIELD 72 91 71 86 / 10 10 10 20 RUSSELL 70 97 69 92 / 10 5 10 10 GREAT BEND 71 96 70 91 / 10 5 10 10 SALINA 72 95 71 90 / 10 5 10 10 MCPHERSON 71 93 70 90 / 10 5 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 72 86 71 85 / 20 20 20 20 CHANUTE 70 85 69 85 / 20 20 20 20 IOLA 70 84 69 85 / 20 20 20 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 22/KETCHAM ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 330 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004 .DISCUSSION... CONCERNS TDY INCLUDE PRECIP CHC TNGT IN SERN KS, TEMPS AND PRECIP CHCS AGAIN THU. TNGT: PESKY MCV FLOATING ACROSS ERN OK PRODUCING WDLY SCT SHRA AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NE INTO SERN KS. RUC/M-ETA TAKES THIS VORT MAX ACROSS SERN KS THIS EVE. WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT, WILL INSERT SOME LOW POPS IN SERN KS FOR A WDLY SCT SHRA CHC. MODELS DO SHOW THIS MVC WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NE, SO WILL SEE SCT SHRA CHC COME TO AN END BY EARLY WED. WE'LL SEE MOSTLY CLR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. TUE-WED: SHEAR ZONE CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS SERN KS ON TUES AND WED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING CAP BREAKING DOWN IN THE AFTN HOURS. SO EXPECT A REPEAT OF THE WDLY SCT SHRA IN SERN KS AGAIN BOTH DAYS. MOST OF THE SHRA WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE SO WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE NIGHTTIME, HIGHER DURING THE DAY. CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THE SHEAR ZONE COULD MAKE TEMPS RATHER TRICKY WITH AREAS WITH LESS CLOUDS 5 DEGS WARMER OF COURSE. GUID TEMPS VARY WIDELY BUT PREFER TO GO WITH COOLER NUMBERS EAST AND WARMER ONES WEST WITH CLOUD COVER DIFFERENCES. THU-THU NIGHT: MODELS SIMILAR WITH BRINGING THE ROCKIES S/WV INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE THU AFTN, WITH A NICE DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS WRN KS. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT, BUT SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST SVR WX THREAT FOR WRK SECTION BY THE EVE HOURS. WILL KEEP POPS GOING IN MOST LOCATIONS STARTING THU EVE AS THIS SYS MOVES ACROSS KS INTO FRI. FRI-MON: SFC SYSTEM STALL OUTS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME MORES PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. IMPULSES HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN THE GREATEST CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE, SO WILL GO WITH LOW POPS THROUGH SUN. ECM SHOWS SYSTEM PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH INTO OK ON MON WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD...SO WILL END POPS ON MON WITH THIS IN MIND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA 72 92 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 HUTCHINSON 71 93 70 90 / 10 5 10 10 NEWTON 71 92 70 88 / 10 10 10 10 ELDORADO 71 90 70 88 / 10 10 10 10 STROTHER FIELD 72 91 71 86 / 10 10 10 20 RUSSELL 70 97 69 92 / 10 5 10 10 GREAT BEND 71 96 70 91 / 10 5 10 10 SALINA 72 95 71 90 / 10 5 10 10 MCPHERSON 71 93 70 90 / 10 5 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 72 86 71 85 / 20 20 20 20 CHANUTE 70 85 69 85 / 20 20 20 20 IOLA 70 84 69 85 / 20 20 20 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 22/KETCHAM ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1117 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004 .DISCUSSION... WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 5H RDG OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH A POTENT SHRTWV TROUGH LIFTING NE THROUGH MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...THERE WAS LOW PRES OVER WRN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH MN INTO ERN NEBRASKA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST THROUGH SRN ONTARIO. UNDER STG UPR RDG WE REMAINED CAPPED IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW...WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 12C OFF 00Z RAOBS. SO DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8C/KM...LACK OF FORCING MECHANISM AND 700 MB CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF UPR MI DRY OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE 00Z RUC HAS BETTER HANDLE ON MID LVL CAP AND DRYNESS ALOFT THAN 00Z ETA SO HAVE FOLLOWED IT FOR FCST DETAILS. RUC SHOWS CAP ERODING SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS SERIES OF WK SHRTWV RIDE UP BACKSIDE OF UPR RDG AND BRING SFC BNDRY CLOSER TO AREA. SO WILL KEEP IN CHC OF TSRA OVER WRN ZONES LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFT 09Z. BACKED OFF TO SLGT CHC OF TSRA OVER MQT-BARAGA AND IRON-DICKINSON COUNTIES AND EAST MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE. GIVEN SRLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT AND DWPNTS STILL IN MID TO UPPER 60S BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ALONG DWNSLPG AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. VOSS .PREV DISCUSSION... .LONG TERM... TUE...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION/MCS INTO NW UPR MI AND LK SUPERIOR TO FADE DURING THE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A LULL IN THE PCPN FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING SBCAPES TO RECOVER INTO THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE (T/TD OF AROUND 84/68) AND PRESENCE OF DECENT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH LOW LVL CONV VCNTY OF WEAKENING SFC TROF REINFORCED BY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...EXPECT TSTMS TO FLARE UP IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND FORM IWD/ONTONAGON TOWARD MARQUETTE ONTO KERY WHICH WILL SAG INTO SRN UPR MI BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MODERATE TO WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL PRFL AND 0-6KM VALUES TO ONLY 25-30 KT. GIVEN ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME PULSE-LIKE CELLS IN TSTM CLUSTERS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HGTS NEAR 11K FT AND FZLVL NEAR 13.5K FT ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH. TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...ZONAL FLOW REMAINS THROUGH THE AREA AS THE SFC BNDRY FCST TO SLIDE FARTHER TO THE S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MDLS SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. THE ETA/UKMET SUGGEST MAIN PCPN BAND WILL REMAIN MAINLY S OF UPR MI WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN DEPICT MORE GENEROUS 850-500 RH AND QPF ACRS UPR MI. MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS WOULD BE WEAK SHRTWVS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH WEAK 900-700 FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORTED BY UPR LVL DIV FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE OF H3 JET OVER NRN ONTARIO. WITH LACK OF MDL CONSENSUS ON SUCH MECHANISMS OR QPF...HAVE TAPERED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY TO CHANCE. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GFS MUCAPE OF 300-800 J/KG LINGERING INTO WED MORNING OVER THE S 2/3 OF UPR MI...EXPECT ONLY ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA IF AREA OF SHRA DEVELOPS. REST OF WED INTO THU...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH NNE FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LK SUPERIOR. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE BUT ADJUSTED A BIT COOLER NEAR LK SUPERIOR. FRI THROUGH MON...MDLS SUGGEST WRN CONUS TROF WILL PROGRESS TOWARD THE GRT LAKES. WHILE 00Z/12Z GFS HAS BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING...SINCE THE OPERATIONAL GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...EXPECT SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ON FRI WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER THE WEST HLF WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND ANY LEAD SHRTWVS EMERGING FROM THE TROF. DRIER ACYC FLOW SHOULD LIMIT PCPN CHANCES FRI OVER THE EAST. FROM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...BETTER SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL EXPECTED WITH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AS MID LVL AND SFC TROF APPROACHES. SOME TRAILING SHRTWV ENERGY LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT MAY KEEP SOME SCT -SHRA OR TSRA GOING. HOWEVER...BY LATER SUN INTO MON FCST LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF 06Z/12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BUILD HIGH PRES FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE UPPER GRT LAKES BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO UPR MI WITH WITH COOL AIR DOMINATING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SFC ENE FLOW. JLB && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 430 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004 .SHORT TERM... WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH A POTENT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCT-BKN CU IN THE CENTRAL U P...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE WARM FRONT HAS SHIFTED NORTH AND LEFT US IN THE WARM SECTOR. IT IS A VERY CAPPED WARM SECTOR AS WELL...WITH 700MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 11-12C. SO DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY... LACK OF FORCING MECHANISM HAS KEPT OUR WX BENIGN EXCEPT FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL MN...ON NWRN EDGE OF STRONG CAP. 18Z KINL SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF THE CAP...SHOWING TEMPS AT 750MB OF 17C. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...WITH THE ETA TOO COOL AT MID LEVELS. AS APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NRN/CENTRAL MN AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WOULD THEN EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE INTO THE WESTERN U P BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT... AIDED BY 50KT H8 WINDS AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING JET IN ONTARIO. LOTS OF INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO AS WELL... WITH BUILDING MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2-3K J/KG IN THE WESTERN U P LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. SO DESPITE CAP AND GREATER DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH (WE WILL BE ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF 80-90KT H5 JET)...WOULD EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT (PER 1000-500MB THICKNESSES). WILL ALSO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OVER WRN/NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WELL AS THE KEWEENAW...AS THEY WILL BE IN REGION OF STRONGER UPPER DIVERGENCE AND SHOULD SEE THE CAP ERODE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. LEAST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE SE (LAKE MICHIGAN BORDERING ZONES). WILL MAINTAIN POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE AS WELL...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST WHERE SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST (0-6KM BULK SHEAR TO 30 KTS). HAVE NOT DEVIATED FAR FROM GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TEMPS...WITH DEWPTS IN LOWER/MID 60S AND SOME WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS OUT WEST MAY NOT DROP BELOW 70F...BUT GENERALLY AM EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 50S. MARINE FOG ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT. JKL .LONG TERM... TUE...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION/MCS INTO NW UPR MI AND LK SUPERIOR TO FADE DURING THE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A LULL IN THE PCPN FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING SBCAPES TO RECOVER INTO THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE (T/TD OF AROUND 84/68) AND PRESENCE OF DECENT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH LOW LVL CONV VCNTY OF WEAKENING SFC TROF REINFORCED BY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...EXPECT TSTMS TO FLARE UP IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND FORM IWD/ONTONAGON TOWARD MARQUETTE ONTO KERY WHICH WILL SAG INTO SRN UPR MI BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MODERATE TO WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL PRFL AND 0-6KM VALUES TO ONLY 25-30 KT. GIVEN ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME PULSE-LIKE CELLS IN TSTM CLUSTERS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HGTS NEAR 11K FT AND FZLVL NEAR 13.5K FT ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH. TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...ZONAL FLOW REMAINS THROUGH THE AREA AS THE SFC BNDRY FCST TO SLIDE FARTHER TO THE S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MDLS SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. THE ETA/UKMET SUGGEST MAIN PCPN BAND WILL REMAIN MAINLY S OF UPR MI WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN DEPICT MORE GENEROUS 850-500 RH AND QPF ACRS UPR MI. MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS WOULD BE WEAK SHRTWVS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH WEAK 900-700 FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORTED BY UPR LVL DIV FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE OF H3 JET OVER NRN ONTARIO. WITH LACK OF MDL CONSENSUS ON SUCH MECHANISMS OR QPF...HAVE TAPERED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY TO CHANCE. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GFS MUCAPE OF 300-800 J/KG LINGERING INTO WED MORNING OVER THE S 2/3 OF UPR MI...EXPECT ONLY ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA IF AREA OF SHRA DEVELOPS. REST OF WED INTO THU...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH NNE FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LK SUPERIOR. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE BUT ADJUSTED A BIT COOLER NEAR LK SUPERIOR. FRI THROUGH MON...MDLS SUGGEST WRN CONUS TROF WILL PROGRESS TOWARD THE GRT LAKES. WHILE 00Z/12Z GFS HAS BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING...SINCE THE OPERATIONAL GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...EXPECT SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ON FRI WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER THE WEST HLF WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS AND ANY LEAD SHRTWVS EMERGING FROM THE TROF. DRIER ACYC FLOW SHOULD LIMIT PCPN CHANCES FRI OVER THE EAST. FROM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...BETTER SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL EXPECTED WITH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AS MID LVL AND SFC TROF APPROACHES. SOME TRAILING SHRTWV ENERGY LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT MAY KEEP SOME SCT -SHRA OR TSRA GOING. HOWEVER...BY LATER SUN INTO MON FCST LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF 06Z/12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BUILD HIGH PRES FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE UPPER GRT LAKES BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO UPR MI WITH WITH COOL AIR DOMINATING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SFC ENE FLOW. JLB && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1053 AM EDT MON JUN 7 2004 .DISCUSSION... BAND OF TSRA ALONG 850MB WARM FRONT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE U P...SETTING UP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AFTERNOON FOR US IN THE WARM SECTOR. 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST HEIGHT RISES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG...HAVING EMERGED FROM A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE TEMPS...WINDS AND ONSET OF CONVECTION. REGARDING TEMPS...WITH H8 TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE TEENS AND NEAR 20C IN THE FAR WEST BY 21Z (CONSISTENT WITH 12Z H8 TEMP OF 20C AT MPX)...ETA/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHS INTO THE 80S TODAY WITH MIXING TO NEAR 860MB. WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND INCREASED WIND TO HELP MIXING...TEMPS MAY APPROACH 90F IN THE FAR WEST (ALREADY 75F AT IWD AT 14Z). EXCEPTION WILL OF COURSE BE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE A GOOD ONSHORE WIND AND SOME FOG WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TEMPS WELL IN HAND AT THIS POINT. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SFC LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN... TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT...AND WE BECOME WELL MIXED. ETA/RUC SHOWING BLYR WINDS TO AT LEAST 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE 50KTS ON THE MPX SOUNDING FROM 925-850MB THIS MORNING. WILL ADJUST WINDS UP FROM BREEZY TO WINDY FOR THE WEST HALF THIS AFTERNOON. AMS WILL BECOME QUITE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON...AS 700MB TEMPS WARM TO 12C OVER THE WEST BY 21Z. THOUGH LOW LEVEL DEWPTS ARE RISING (SFC DEWPTS ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 60S FROM IWD TO MQT AND IMT)...AND SFC-BASED CAPES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 2.5-3.5 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...CINS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK WITHOUT ANY FORCING MECHANISM. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES...AND THE SFC FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST. SO...DRY BUT MORE HUMID FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS FINE. HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE TONIGHT...NEAREST THE GREATER DYNAMICS AND WHERE CAP WILL BREAK SOONEST...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY. REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED 330AM EDT)... MODELS THEN FCST UPR SHRTWV TO MOVE ENE TOWARD JAMES BAY BY 12Z TUE. GFS INDICATES ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FNT WL REACH WRN LK SUP ARND 12Z...WITH RIBBON OF DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF HIER PWAT AND H85 DWPT ARND 15C/LOWER SSI TOWARD -5/STEEPER H7-5 LAPSE RATES 7.0-7.5C/KM INVADING THE WRN ZNS OVERNGT. THESE DYNAMICS...AXIS OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND PLACEMENT OF CWA IN RRQ OF UPR JET IN ONTARIO CAUSE H7 TEMPS TO FALL SVRL DEGREES CLOSER TO 10C. SO...SUSPECT CHCS FOR NOCTURNAL TSRA WL INCRS WITH TIME AS MID LVL CAP SLOWLY ERODES ABV INCRSG H85 DWPT. HAVE OPTED TO RETAIN HI CHC POPS IN THIS AREA. BUT SINCE GFS INDICATES SCNTRL AND ERN ZNS WL REMAIN TO THE SE OF BETTER FORCING...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLGT CHC FM MNM-ESC-ISQ. SPC HAS ALL BUT FAR SE CWA IN SLGT RISK AREA. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FCST ONLY IN THE 30KT RANGE...ELEVATED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG (WITH ONLY 25 J/KG CIN) AT CMX AT 09Z WHEN LIFTING FM H810 IS FVRBL FOR LARGE HAIL DESPITE HI WBZ ARND 11K FT. EVALUATION OF SVR WX CHECKLIST HINTS THAT BOW ECHOES WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FAIRLY STRG FLOW ALF WL BE THE STORM TYPE...BUT ELEVATED NATURE OF OVERNGT CNVCTN AND RELATIVELY WEAK SFC-MID LVL THETA-E DIFFERENCE WL LIKELY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SVR WIND GUSTS. OTRW...NGT WL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH STEADY WSW FLOW ALL NGT. MOS LO TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND RSNBL. AS UPR FLOW OVER SRN CAN GRDLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL...GFS SHOWS INCRSGLY W-E ORIENTED SFC COLD FNT PRESSING S ACRS CWA LATE TUE/TUE NGT...PASSING S OF MNM JUST BEFORE 12Z WED. GFS HINTS AT IMPULSES ON SRN FLANK OF MAIN JET AXIS IN SRN CAN WL INVIGORATE THIS FNT AND CAUSE AN INCRS IN CNVCTN. ALTHOUGH DETAILS MUST BE VIEWED AS SKETCHY ATTM...IT APPEARS BEST CHC FOR HIER POPS PER GFS MOS AND EXPLICIT H85-5 RH INCRS WL BE 03Z-15Z WED...WITH DRYING FM THE N ON WED AS FLOW ALF BCMS A BIT MORE WNW CONTRIBUTING TO DCRSG PCPN CHCS. WL GO WITH LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME...WITH TSRA CHCS CONTG EVEN A FEW HRS AFTER RATHER SHALLOW SFC COLD FROPA DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS INDICATED BY SSI < 0C. TEMPS WL REMAIN WELL ABV NORMAL UNTIL WED...WHEN SHALLOW WEDGE OF COOL AIR ARRIVES WITH STEADY NORTH WIND OFF LK SUP. EVEN AFTER SHRA END BEHIND FROPA...XPCT LO CLD TO LINGER UNTIL DRIER AIR ARRIVES FM THE N. COORDINATED WITH GRB. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...JKL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1050 AM EDT MON JUN 7 2004 .UPDATE...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE TO 16C BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THUS STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE INCREASING TEMPS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ESSENTIALLY KEEP SE LOWER MI CAPPED TO ANY CONVECTION. THIS WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALSO INHIBIT MUCH DIURNAL CU. JUST EXPECTING SOME CIRRUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH...REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER MINNESOTA. THE RUC INDICATES THAT THE 950MB WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STRENGTHEN TO 20 KNOTS TOWARD EVENING. THIS SHOULD KEEP LAKE BREEZES WITHIN A COUPLE MILES FROM THE SHORE. THUS WILL INCREASE TEMPS IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID 80S...IN LINE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN INTERIOR COUNTIES. && CONSIDINE .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 405 AM. 00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS... BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER QUEBEC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COMPACT UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF MONTANA EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH A +110KT JET OBSERVED AT 300MB OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW WELL INTO QUEBEC...WITH A LINGERING FRONT STRETCHING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BOUNDARY EXTENDS BACK THROUGH A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS...TO MAIN LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. IR SATELLITE/METARS SHOW AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AFTER OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS. SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO DIG A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...LEADING TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT 500MB...582DAM CONTOUR BUILDS FROM NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING TO THE STRAITS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT THAT STALLED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...CLEARING NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY AFTERNOON. WEAK 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK /DIFFERENTIAL COOLING LEADING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/ HAS LEAD TO THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER. WILL MENTION AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH 10 AM...BUT BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS THEY MAY BE OUT OF THE AREA IN JUST A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE AN INTERESTING CALL AS TO PARTLY SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY. IR SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AROUND. FARTHER NORTH A SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD IS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN...DOWNSTREAM OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. CURRENT SATELLITE WOULD SUGGEST THIS DEBRIS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH. WILL OPT FOR AN OPTIMISTIC MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON /ONCE CURRENT MID CLOUDS/PRECIP CLEARS OUT/. ETA CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY...WITH 0-2KM CAPES OVER 1000J/KG. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP DEVELOPING AROUND 650MB UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE...WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH NO SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IN THE AREA /ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING/. 950MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 20KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD HOLD ANY LAKE BREEZES AT BAY UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING REGIONS NEAR THE LAKE TO REACH WARM HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S BEFORE COOLING OFF. AND WITH THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE...A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WOULD NOT HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO SPARK CONVECTION. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON DRY. SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MERGE WITH THE ONE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...TO AN ANCHOR LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT /NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ALTHOUGH SOME NEAR THE SURFACE/. DECENT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOW 60S LEADING TO ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL NIGHT. NORTHERN SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT BACK-DOORING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ETA CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE GFS BRINGING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD. PREFER THE GFS TIMING WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE LAST THREE RUNS... AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN GLOBAL. WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY...THERE MAY BE NO GOOD FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING DURING THE DAY. A MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDING FOR A MORE REALISTIC 88/68 /AS OPPOSED TO THE TYPICALLY HIGH ETA SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ GETS AROUND THE CAP WITH 3000J/KG OF AVAILABLE ENERGY. DIFFICULT TO IGNORE THIS EVEN WITHOUT A GOOD TRIGGER MECHANISM...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE GRIDS. TUESDAY ALSO IS ALSO GOING TO BE THE WARM DAY THIS PERIOD...WITH ALL OF THE CWA APPROACHING 90F. STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND /950MB SPEEDS +20KTS/ SHOULD KEEP LAKE BREEZES AT BAY. RECORDS AT DTW/FNT/MBS ARE 93/91/93. FNT MAY BE CLOSE...BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FASTER ETA BRINGS IT TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE PREFERRED GFS ONLY TAKING IT TO NORTHERN LOWER. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE SLOWER TIMING...AN INCREASE IN LIFT FROM WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP GOING OVERNIGHT. FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP. CURRENT TIMING MAY BE A BIT FASTER...WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE CWA RIGHT DURING PEAK HEATING. GOOD STABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE...AS WE WILL HAVE BEEN PERCOLATING UNDER A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FOR A FEW DAYS. WILL INCREASE POPS TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAY...AND MAINTAIN THAT FOR THE EVENING FOR NOW. THE ETA...IN ADDITION BEING FASTER INITIALLY...ALSO DROPS THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. IT BUILDS THE TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AS OPPOSED TO KEEPING IT ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR THE LAST WEEK...AND THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK GOOD...KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS WESTERN TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT INTO THE PLAINS. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BRAVENDER EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1001 AM CDT MON JUNE 7 2004 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST QUANDARY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. MCV OVER RED RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREATER MIDWEST. RUC AND ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND AROUND 2500 J/KG2 OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS CONFIRMS...WITH A TONGUE OF 70+ DEWPOINTS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO MISSOURI. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NILL...AND A DEFINED LIFTING MECHANISM IS ABSENT...ONLY WEAK DPVA WILL BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED MCV. THEREFORE...DIURNALLY INDUCED ISOLATED PULSE CONVECTION BETWEEN 18Z-00Z IS LIKELY SOUTHWEST OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA...ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .IL...NONE. $$ CVKING EFFECTIVE 7 AM JUNE 8 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM AFDSTL TO AFDLSX. THE WMO HEADER WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE COMPLETED BY JUNE 8 2004. mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 940 AM EDT MON JUN 7 2004 THERE ARE A FEW SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE OVER LK HURON/GEORGIAN BAY AREA ATTM. THIS FEATURE TO MOVE SE THIS AFTN TWD EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WILL KEEP 20 POP SLGT CHANCE OF A SHWR/TSTM FOR AREAS FROM THE FINGER LKS EAST OTRW PARTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTN. TEMPS GENLY FROM THE MID 70S DOWNWIND FROM LAKES TO LOWER 80S INLAND. NO CHANGES TO REST OF THE FORECAST. EARLIER AFD FOLLOWS... JJP COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING IS WELL DEFINED ACROSS QUEBEC...BUT BECOMES RATHER ILL-DEFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. ALL THE UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS QUEBEC AND THIS IS HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS OF 07Z...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AT THIS POINT...FEEL ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA...IF IT REACHES THE AREA AT ALL. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION AND IT KEEPS NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WILL COMPLETELY WASH OUT FRONT BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOWING VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE FEEL ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR +18C AND SHOULD YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR SECTIONS. ROCHESTER COULD FLIRT WITH THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 92F SET BACK IN 1906. SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS BACK CLOSER TO 80F. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT BUFKIT PROFILES SHOWING A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE WITH A MODEST AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING CONVECTION....CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. ETA AND GFS TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT A LITTLE CLOSER THIS RUN. ETA STILL ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER. WITH STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...CONTINUE TO FEEL SLOWER GFS SOLUTION IS MORE REASONABLE. GFS DROPS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION INITIATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. GFS PROFILES SUGGESTING CAPES COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES DOWN TO -4. COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH A VERY STEAMY AIR MASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT TO SEE A ROUND OF CONVECTION WORK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FEEL LIKELY PROBABILITIES REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. GFS QPF SUGGESTING A GOOD HALF INCH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER...BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND CLEAR THE AREA OUT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION... A VERY WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED COOL FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE RIDGING BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE COMMON IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...WITH A 4-5 KFT DECK POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE VICINITY OF KART BETWEEN 10-15Z BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH. SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS IN THE 4-5 KFT LAYER...BUT THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS UPPER RIDGING/ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. .BUF...NONE. $$ PUBLIC...TMA AVIATION...JJR ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 952 AM EDT MON JUN 7 2004 .DISCUSSION... latest ruc showing low continuing over Savannah river and morning coastal soundings showing capes around 3000 J/kg. pw are down a bit but models show convection developing along sea breeze around 18 UTC and continue through 00Z UTC. Current forecast looks fine and no updates are planned. && .MARINE... THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND 41003 MOVING NE...AND LITTLE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AREA. UPDATE WILL REMOVE MENTION OF TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. BERMUDA RIDGING INTO THE SE STATES WILL CONTINUE WITH 3 FT SEAS WITH LONG PERIOD...7-8 SECONDS AND WIND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. INCREASING PRES GRADIENT WED AFTN/EVENING AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WED NIGHT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT THU AND FRI. && .PREV DISCUSSION... DIFFUSE BOUNDARY NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER SHOULD DISSIPATE AND DRIFT NORTH TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING IN THE LUMBERTON/FAYETTEVILLE AREAS. HUMID UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL GIVE RISE TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN APPRECIABLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAKING CONVECTION EVEN MORE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT FOR BOTH DAYS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COULD LOWER HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO... BUT AN 84-87 RANGE LOOKS GOOD FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. YEARLY RAINFALL DEFICITS ARE STILL RUNNING AS HIGH AS 7 INCHES AT FLORENCE AND 6 INCHES IN WILMINGTON AND LUMBERTON...THIS MAY BE MORE WELCOME RAIN THAN ANYTHING. DOMINANT FLOW FROM THE S TO SW WITH WEAK BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE SE COAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN SEA STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT. WINDS AROUND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTN ALONG THE COAST AS SEA BREEZE SETS UP. INCREASING PRES GRADIENT WED AFTN/EVENING AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WED NIGHT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT THU AND FRI. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WILMINGTON 86 70 85 70 / 30 20 40 20 FLORENCE 88 70 87 71 / 40 30 50 30 LUMBERTON 86 69 86 71 / 30 30 50 30 MYRTLE BEACH 83 72 82 72 / 30 20 30 20 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ HAWKINS/TM nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 930 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004 SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE MOVED OUT/DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING. EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE H5 LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW... ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. IN THE SHORT RUN... DO NOT SEE A LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING... SO WILL HANG ON TO ONLY LOW POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST... AND WHAT WEAK FORCING MAY EXIST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS... MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS. ALSO MONITORING A LARGE AREA OF PCPN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST RUC APPEARS TO HAVE NO CLUE ABOUT THE SOUTH TEXAS PCPN... WHILE THE NEW ETA INITIALIZES IT REASONABLY WELL. ETA PULLS THE PCPN TO NEAR THE RED RIVER BY 12Z AS AN UPPER LOW...PERHAPS ANOTHER MCV... DEEPENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PCPN. WILL NUDGE POPS UP A LITTLE HIGHER ALONG THE RED RIVER TOWARDS MORNING. && 32 _____________________________________________ 320 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004 .DISCUSSION... MCV FEATURE THAT HAS AIDED IN FLOODING RAINS PAST FEW DAYS IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH ETA AND GFS BRING SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PW'S AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FA. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THIS AREA STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF INCREASING LLJ AND UPPER JET MAX GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. STILL UNCERTAIN ON EXACT EVOLUTION BUT FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SE PARTS OF FA. GOING INTO EXTENDED PART OF FORECAST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST PART OF US MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG DRYLINE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF FA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE WILL KEEP IN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MONDAY BEING A DRY DAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 85 71 86 / 10 30 50 20 HOBART OK 71 89 70 91 / 10 10 10 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 72 88 72 88 / 10 30 10 10 GAGE OK 71 93 68 92 / 10 0 10 0 PONCA CITY OK 71 85 70 86 / 10 0 10 20 DURANT OK 71 84 71 86 / 30 60 70 60 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 6 EFFECTIVE 7 AM TUESDAY JUNE 8 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM AFDOKC TO AFDOUN. THE WMO HEADER WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE COMPLETED BY JUNE 8 2004. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 910 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004 .PUBLIC...CONVECTION FINALLY ON THE DECLINE AND CURRENTLY CONFINED TO GA...MAINLY W OF US-301. PLENTY OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER PRECIP SO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL LATE EVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE SAV RIVER AND THE N PART OF THE CWA...BUT TREND HAS DEFINITELY BEEN FOR DECREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO STORMS SINCE BEFORE SUNSET. SFC LOW PRES IN E GA WILL MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT...WHILE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS N OF THE CWA. BUT WITH LINGERING OUTFLOWS AS MENTIONED ABOVE AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THESE SFC FEATURES I WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR AT LEAST GA TONIGHT...MAINLY EARLY. MUCH OF SE GA AND A SMALL PART OF SC RECEIVED RAINS EARLIER TODAY...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES. WITH LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA THIS POINTS TO FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. BUT...EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE THEY THIN OUT. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG AT LEAST TO THE GRIDS. WILL TWEAK A FEW TEMPS...MAINLY TO LOWER A BIT FAR INLAND AND OPEN A LARGER COASTAL RANGE. NO MORE THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS. WILL INITIAL ALL ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY. && .MARINE...SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT BACKED WINDS TO SELY EARLIER THIS AFTN AND BUOYS HAVE MAINTAINED THEIR SELY FLOW THRU THIS EVE THUS FAR. RUC AND META ALSO INDICATE WINDS WILL REMAIN SELY THRU ABOUT 06Z...SO FOR CWF UPDATE WILL INITIALIZE WITH SELY WINDS BECOMING SLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE...AND SELY FLOW NOT LONG ENUF TO MAKE ANY NOTICEABLE CHANGES WITH THE WAVE HEIGHTS SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE. NO HEADLINES. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ PM/JPC sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 845 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004 .DISCUSSION... WL BE UPDATING THE ZFP TEXT BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM FOR CRNT TRENDS... BUT OVERALL GOING FCST IS DOING GOOD WITH NO MAJOR PROBLEMS. NEW GRIDS ARE ALREADY OUT. DECENT TS ACTIVITY HAS FIRED UP IN CNTRL NEB WHERE THE STRONG MID LVL CAP HAS BROKE. ATTM...SFC CDFNT IS ABOUT RIGHT ON TOP OF MARSHALL MN...EXTENDING SW TO ABOUT 40 MILES WEST OF YANKTON. BOTH LATEST RUC40 AND 18Z META SHOW THIS FRONT NOT MAKING A LOT OF EWD PROGRESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY LAYING OVR FM NEAR MARSHALL...TO SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. THAT COULD BE THE CONTINUING FOCUS FOR NIGHTTIME DVLPMENT. LOW LVL JET REMAINS STRONG PRETTY MUCH THRU THE WHOLE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND ATTM AM THINKING THAT THE CONVECTION IN CNTRL NEB...DUE TO LACK OF TRUE EWD PROGRESS...WL NOT HINDER THE LOW LVL JET FEED THAT MUCH. KABR SNDG SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF COOLING AT H7 FM 18Z TO 00Z FM +16C TO +11 OR +12C. ONCE THIS COOLER MID LVL AIR STARTS ADVECTING INTO WRN MN...AM THINKING THAT CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG THE BNDRY...THEN BACK BUILD SW ALONG THE LOW LVL JET AXIS INTO SE SD LATE TNGT. THE CRNT ACTIVITY IN NEB WL LIKELY NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON THE FSD CWA...OTHER THAN TO GREATLY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER EARLIER THAN WE EXPECTED...AND SMALL POPS ARE ALREADY POSTED IN THE WEST AND NORTH. DIR WIND SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH REMAINING DECENT INSTABILITY AT 06Z BUT RAPID STABILIZATION FM 06Z TO 09Z. THE NRN AND WRN CWA IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MUCH LESS WIND SHEAR AND STABILITY...WHILE THE SE CWA IN NW IA REMAINS UNSTABLE BUT MUCH MORE CAPPED WITH VERY HIGH CINS. THAT'S BASICALLY THE STORY. A FEW SVR TS COULD POP LATE TNGT RIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE CDFNT...MAYBE DIME OR NICKEL HAILERS...BUT IT WON'T BE A WIDESRPEAD OUTBREAK. MAY UP THE POPS THOUGH AND GO CLOSER TO 50 POPS (SCATTERED) ARND THE SIOUX FALLS AREA...BUT WILL RESERVE JUDGEMENT ON THAT UNTIL THE 00Z DATA COMES OUT. THE DEEPER ONE GOES INTO NW IA...THE LESS LIKELY FOR TS CHCS WHERE THE CINS ARE OUT OF CONTROL. AS A SIDENOTE...LOWS LOOK GREAT SO FAR AND WILL NOT BE TAMPERED WITH. && .FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ MJF sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 920 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004 .UPDATE...AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES IT SEEMS MORE AND MORE CLEAR THAT THE FRONT IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEATHER OVERNIGHT. 18Z ETA SOLUTION HAS THE WRONG IDEA WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE DISCOUNTED THAT SOLUTION. BUT HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT NCEP RUC RUNS AND A LOCAL WORKSTATION ETA /WSETA/ MODEL RUN AT ARX HERE AND BOTH ACTIVATE TSRA ON THE FRONT BUT KEEP EVERYTHING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. 00Z/JUNE7 4KM WRF MODEL ACTIVATES THE FRONT 01-02Z AND THEN SHIFTS THE A TSRA LINE EAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. see:http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5 AT 01Z...THE FORECAST AREA HAD AN AVERAGE SBCAPE OF 2000J/KG WITH 70- 120J/KG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND NO CONVERGENCE AREAS TO BREAK THE CAP. THE FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS IN MN...BUT VERY SLOW...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-850MB LAYER JUST OUT AHEAD OF IT. THE WIND SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE WEAK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND BEST RIGHT ON THE FRONT. THUS...ALL THE EVIDENCE SUGGESTS SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT. ALSO...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT THE STORMS AND RAIN TO FORM AND REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT...OR WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF THE FRONT. LATEST RUC/WSETA SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY IN THE SAME POSITION AT DAWN. WILL ADJUST CHANCE OF TSRA WEST FOR REMAINDER OF NIGHT AND KEEP A SMALL CHANCE WEST OF A KRST-KMDZ LINE. OTHERWISE A WARM AND SUMMERY NIGHT. && BAUMGARDT .PREV DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HANDLING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT AHEAD OF FRONT RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. LAPS DATA INDICATING STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST... AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS WITH SUNNY SKIES. OVERALL THE 12Z 07JUN04 GFS INITIALIZED BEST WITH REGARDS TO THE UPPER LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST. HOWEVER BOTH THE ETA AND GFS ARE SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDING THE WEST COAST LOW AND THE FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH NO CLEAR CUT FAVORITE. IN THE SHORT TERM...LOTS OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN CAPPED AND THUS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS AND CONFINED TO JUST SMALL CHANCES ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITIES AGAIN BUILDING. HOWEVER CAP CONTINUES TO BE THE PROBLEM. CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID RANGE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STILL THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FLOW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. BIGGEST CONCERN LOOKS TO BE RIVERS AS THEY ARE STILL QUITE HIGH. WILL RE-ISSUE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR THIS POTENTIAL. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT SHEAR VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. MODEL SOUNDING ARE INDICATING SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITIES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND AND HAIL THREAT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HAVE ALSO OPTED TO CONTINUE POPS INTO THURSDAY WITH BOUNDARY STILL NEAR THE AREA. THIS INLINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GUIDANCE VALUES ALL VERY SIMILAR AND SIMILAR TO THE ON GOING FORECAST...THUS NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS. RABERDING && .ARX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ EFFECTIVE 7 AM TUESDAY JUNE 8 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM AFDLSE TO AFDARX. THE WMO HEADER WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE COMPLETED BY TOMORROW. wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1235 AM EST TUE JUN 8 2004 .AVIATION... CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WIND AND A LITTLE MVFR BR AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME RESIDUAL HAZE POSSIBLE IN MORNING WITH INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY. MAINLY SCT VFR CU DURING THE DAY. CU RULE DOES INDICATE BKN VFR AT TIMES BUT MOST OF TIME SHOULD BE IN SCT CATEGORY. && .SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL KEEP ANY CHANCE OF SH/TSRA UNTIL TUE LATE. WITH DECENT NVA AND NO TRIGGER MECHANISM TOOK MENTION OF SHRA ACTIVITY OUT OF TUE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. GFS HINTING AT ACTIVITY BUT H70 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TOO FAR NORTH OVER MO MAKING FOR A MECHANISM FOR PRECIP TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON OVER IL. THE ETA HAS H70 SHORTWAVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER OK AND KS...AND THIS MAKES MORE SENSE AS PRECIP IS CONFINED THERE. ETA SHOWS FOCUS MAINLY OVER IA...IL AND WI FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND IS HANDLING THE CLOSED LOW OVER OK BETTER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RUC40 IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ETA SHORT TERM. H85 JET WILL SURGE INTO SW IA BY 12Z TUE AND BRING LOWER 70 DEWS INTO AT LEAST MY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA TUE. EXPERIMENTAL WAM NUMBERS IN THE LOW 90S AND MET AND MAV RIGHT BEHIND IN UPPER 80S. MODELS A LITTLE SLUGGISH WITH ACTUAL INCREASE IN DEW POINTS OVER IL MO AND IA THAN PROGGED. IF DEWS PUSH MORE INTO THE 70S IN MY CWA TUE IT WILL BE TOUGHER TO GET INTO THE LOWER 90S...SO WENT WITH A BLEND. MOSTLY SUNNY TO START THE DAY AND BY 16-18Z CU SHOULD DEVELOP. && .LONG TERM... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTH AS SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH TRIES TO BUILD IN SOMEWHAT. NOT A MAJOR PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT...SO STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT MOVES. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDS AFTN/NGT WITH LINGERING PRECIP THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE WENT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT NOTHING STANDS OUT IMMEDIATELY THAT WARRANTS ANY ZONE MENTION. WILL STILL BE WARM AND MUGGY ON WEDS AND LIKELY THURS AS CLOUD COVER AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THURS AND FRI COULD SEE A RATHER LARGE VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH UPR 70S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND MID-UPR 80S SOUTH. FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH ON FRI WITH CONTINUING CHC OF PRECIP. SATURDAY COULD END UP DRY AS FRONT MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST. DUE TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL NOT DROP MENTION OF PRECIP. COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR AND CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIP. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 340 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER THE GRT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF TROF ALG THE W COAST. POTENT SHRTWV RIDING NE INTO ONTARIO ON TOP OF RDG IN THE GRT LKS...ACCOMPANIED BY H3/H5/H7 SPEED MAX OF 110KT/80KT/50KT FM SRN LK WINNIPEG TO CYPL. STRG WSW FLOW TO THE S OF SFC LO NE OF LK WINNIPEG HAS PUSHED WARM FNT WELL N OF CWA... WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR INVADING THE CWA (03Z TEMP AT IWD 82 AFTER TMAX OF 90...03Z TD AT IMT 68). DESPITE AMPLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY... IMPRESSIVE H65-75 CAP DEPICTED ON 00Z MPX/GRB SDNGS (H85-7 TEMPS ARND 20C-12C) MAINTAINED BY SUBSIDENCE IN UNFVRBL RIGHT EXIT OF JET TO THE NW AND STRG WAD HAS INHIBITED TSRA DVLPMNT OVER THE FA EVEN THOUGH LAPSE RATES ABOVE CAP ARE QUITE STEEP (H7-5 RATES ARND 8C/KM). BUT CNVCTN HAS BEEN FIRING ACRS MN ALG PRE-COLD FNTL TROF APRNT AT BOTH SFC-H85 AT NW SIDE OF STRG CAP AND UNDER AXIS OF HIER PWAT ARPCHG 1.50 INCHES. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING NE...AND PROMPTED EARLIER ISSUANCE OF VERIFIED TSRA WRNG FOR ISLE ROYALE (PENNY-SIZED HAIL). 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS HINT OF CAP AT H7 (TEMP 9C)...BUT CIN IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN FARTHER SE. MAIN SFC COLD FNT THAT MARKS LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR EVIDENT FM LK WINNIPEG LO SW INTO SD. SFC DWPTS FALL WELL INTO THE 40S BEHIND THIS BNDRY. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SVR TSRA CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH STRG SHRTWV PASSING TO THE N...AND THEN AGAIN ON TUE WITH APRCH OF MAIN COLD FNT TO THE W. TENDED TO FOLLOW RUC GUIDANCE FOR SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE NOTED THIS MODEL HAS HAD BETTER HANDLE ON CAP STRENGTH AND MAINTENANCE. RUC SHOWS JET MAX IN NW ONTARIO MOVING ENE OVERNGT ALG WITH POTENT SHRTWV. BUT ANOTHER H3 JET MAX FCST TO INTENSIFY OVER SRN LK WINNIPEG OVERNGT...WHICH HAS GOOD SUPPORT FM THE LATEST ETA/GFS/NGM. ALTHOUGH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INITIAL JET MAX AND ASSOCIATED RIGHT EXIT SUBSIDENCE WOULD TEND TO CAUSE THE CAP TO WEAKEN...THE ASSOCIATED UPR CNVGC IN THE RIGHT EXIT OF THE NEW JET (BEST DEPICTED ON THE RUC/GFS) MIGHT TEND TO MAINTAIN THE CAPPING. ON THE OTHER HAND...RUC SHOWS BNDRY IN NE MN TENDING TO PUSH EWD OVERNGT INTO WRN LK SUP...WITH INCRSG H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND SOME H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC ALG SLOWLY VEERING H85 JET AXIS UP TO 55KT/AXIS OF HIER PWAT CONTRIBUTING TO A COOLING OF THE CRITICAL H75-65 TEMP AND A WEAKENING OF THE CAP/CIN. RUC FCST SNDGS FOR CMX INDICATE CONTINUED NEGATIVE JET DYNAMICS WL OUTWEIGH THE CONTRIBUTION FM THESE MECHANISMS. ALTHOUGH LIFTING FM H75 AT CMX AT 09Z YIELDS MUCAPE ARPCHG 1500 J/KG...CIN REMAINS A HEFTY 100 J/KG. BOTH GFS/RUC INDICATE UPR DVGC CORRESPONDING TO GROWING TSRA LINE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD WL SHIFT MORE NE THAN E AS WELL. WL CARRY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE NW ZNS EARLY IN THIS FCST PD IN CASE POSITIVE DYNAMICS CAN WEAKEN THE CAP ENUF...BUT DRY TO THE E UNDER THE LINGERING CAP. AS FAR AS SVR THREAT FOR ANY TSRA THAT DO DVLP... RUC SHOWS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-40KT RANGE OVER THE KEWEENAW. FAIRLY STRG UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW IN THE H7-5 LYR (45-50KT) AND SFC-H6 DELTA THETA-E NR 18C HINTS AT STRG WIND THREAT...BUT ELEVATED NATURE OF CNVCTN AND STRG MID LVL CAP WOULD REDUCE THIS POTENTIAL. STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT WBZ APRCHG 11K FT IS UNFRVBL. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...MODELS SHOW SFC COLD FNT REACHING THE CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTN...WITH AXIS OF MAX PWAT OVER THE SRN TIER ALG REMNANTS OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF. MODELS HINT THAT ENUF DRY AIR SNEAKS INTO THE FAR NW TO PRECLUDE CNVCTN...BUT EXPECT CNVCTN TO FIRE ALG THE STNRY BNDRY OVER THE SCNTRL ZNS...WITH SOLAR HTG INSTIGATING LK BREEZE FORMATION IN WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT UNDER LARGE SCALE FNT AND ENHANCING LLVL CNVGC ALG INSTABILITY AXIS OF LI ARND -4 FCST BY ETA FM IMT-ERY. JET AXIS TO THE NW ALSO MOVES FARTHER E SO THAT RIGHT EXIT SUBSIDENCE MIGHT BE MINIMIZED IN THE AFTN (BOTH GFS/ETA SHOW FALLING H7 TEMPS)...SO WL MAINTAIN GOING HI CHC POPS ALG THIS AXIS FOR LATER IN THE AFTN...WITH POPS SHAVED ESPCIALLY TO THE NW WHERE MID LVL DRY AIR INFUSION WL BE FELT STRONGEST. ETA FCST SDNG FOR IMT AT 18Z SHOWS CAPE APRCHG 2700 J/KG (LI -7) WITH NO CIN FOR T/TD 86/68. ALTHOUGH PRESENCE OF BNDRY WL INCRS THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY IN THE 20-30KT RANGE ALG THE FNT. AS INDICATED BY DAYSHIFT...PULSE SVR THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE GREATEST...ESPECIALLY WITH DRY MID LVLS/SFC-H68 DELTA THETA-E AT IMT AN IMPRESSIVE 25C WITH INVERTED V SDNG AND RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. BUT HIER FRZLVL/WBZ ARND 15.2/12.9 KFT WOULD TEND TO MINIMIZE SVR POTENTIAL. AS UPR JET MAX CONTS EWD ACRS SRN CAN TNGT...UPR FLOW VEERS MORE WNW AND BECOMES INCRSGLY CONFLUENT IN ONTARIO...CAUSING AN INCRS IN MSLP IN SCNTRL CAN INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. BLDG HI PRES TO THE NW FCST TO ENHANCE LLVL DRY AIR ADVCTN INTO THE FA. SFC COLD FNT PROGGED TO PUSH THRU MNM EARLY THIS EVNG. MID LVL DRYING/LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG WL CAUSE LINGERING TSRA IN THE EVNG TO DIMINISH...BUT THEN GFS/ETA HINT AT INCRSG MID LVL RH LATER AT NGT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE RRQ OF UPR JET MAX TO THE NE PASSES OVER THE FA WITH SOME DEEP BUT RATHER FLABBY H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC AND ENHANCED H85-7 FRONTOGENESIS ON THE COOL SIDE OF SHALLOW FNT PRESSING TO THE S. WITH FNT FARTHER S...LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC FOR SHRA WL BE ACRS THE SRN TIER...AND WL RETAIN LIKELY POPS THERE WITH SHARPLY REDUCED CHCS FARTHER N (TO NO WX OVER THE KEWEENAW). WL MENTION TSRA ONLY IN MNM COUNTY PER ETA/GFS FCST SSI 0 LINE. WL EMPHASIZE MUCH COOLER WITH LLVL NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FNT. ON WED...GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AT MAINTAINING AND EVEN EXPANDING AREA OF HIER H85-5 RH OVER THE CWA WITH HINTS OF BETTER UPR DVGC/ H85-7 FRONTOGENESIS IN RRQ OF UPR JET TO THE NE. ETA TENDS TO EMPHASIZE DRYING ARND H85. ALTHOUGH MID LVL RH FCST TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY...MODEL GENERATES QPF ONLY OVER THE SRN TIER WHILE GFS SPREADS PCPN BACK AS FAR N AS THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH ETA SHOULD HAVE BETTER RESOLUTION ON DRYING...PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH FA IN RRQ WITH FRONTOGENESIS MAX TO THE N PROBABLY WARRANTS AT LEAST CHC POPS ALL ZNS. CNDN MODEL TENDS TO SUPPORT THE GFS...WHILE UKMET APPEARS MORE LIKE THE ETA. GIVEN CONFLICTING SIGNALS...WL GO WITH A 30 POP OVER THE KEWEENAW TO 60 OVER THE SCNTRL...WITH DCRSG POPS LATE AND INTO THE EVNG AS EVEN THE GFS SHOWS DCRSG H85-5 RH BY 00Z. BUT HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ON TO LO CHC POPS ACRS THE FAR SCNTRL INTO WED NGT AS ETA/GFS HANG ON TO HIER H85-5 RH IN FVRBL RRQ OF UPR JET N OF SHALLOW FNT NOT TOO FAR TO THE S. COORDINATED WITH GRB. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. MAIN HEADACHE THIS MORNING DEALS WITH PCPN CHCS...WHEN...WHERE AND HOW LONG? FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN LOCATED SOUTH OF CWA THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHO CONVECTION TONIGHT PROVES THAT DON'T NEED SFC BOUNDARY IN AREA TO FIRE TSRA. LOOKING AT RUC AND M-ETA DATA...APPEARS THAT CONVECTION LAST EVENING AND THIS MORNING IS FIRING ON ISEN LIFT NOTED ON 305K AND 310K LAYERS...COMBINED WITH MINOR VORT MOVING SOUTH IN SW FLOW. KABR 88D SHOWING BROAD AREA OF PROBABLE ACCAS ACROSS NWRN CWA...WITH BIT BEEFIER STORMS LOCATED ACROSS FAR SCNTRL SODAK. LATEST RUC INDICATES THAT THESE STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH MORNING. PROB IS THAT AS THESE STORMS TREK NORTH...WILL ENCOUNTER AIR ALREADY TURNED OVER BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION. ALSO TIME OF MAX DIURNAL STABILITY SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS ONGOING CONVECTION. MODELS CONT TO SHOW SFC BOUNDARY SAGGING SLOWLY TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SFC HIGH DRAPED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SFC FLOW IS EASTERLY UNDER HIGH...WITH FLOW TURNING SW BY 700MB. ISEN ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT FORCING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF SFC BOUNDARY...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. FAR NW CWA SHOULD BE OK...ALTHOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME HI BASED SHOWERS WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA. BEST 7H AND 5H OMEGA FIELDS REMAIN CLOSER TO SFC BOUNDARY. ISEN LIFT WEAKENS BY 12Z WED AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY CALM DAY FOR THE MOST PART. MUCH STRONGER 5H S/W TROF EJECTS OUT OF LONGWAVE WRN TROF BY WED AFTN WITH MUCH MORE INSTABILITY WORKING WAY INTO NRN PLAINS. AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO PLAINS...SFC FRONT BEGINS TO RETREAT BACK TO NORTH...WITH PWATS INCREASING. LEANED TOWARD M-ETA ISEN FORCING ON 305 AND 310 LAYERS TO HELP WITH TIMING OF PCPN WED AFTN/NIGHT. AM A BIT WORRIED ABOUT PCPN FCST FOR WED NIGHT. 00Z AND NOW QUICK LOOK AT 06Z M-ETA SHOWS THAT WAVE/TROF EJECTING OVER REGION FOR WED NIGHT IS SLOWING...WITH NO QPF FCSTD ACROSS CWA THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BACKPEDDLE A BIT FOR PCPN FCST. FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH CHC TSRA ALONG MO RIVER COUNTIES WED NIGHT WITH SLGT CHC -TSRA FOR REMAINDER OF CWA. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE SOGGY AS SFC LOW GAINS STRENGTH ACROSS WY WITH SRN BOUNDARY STILL LIFTING TO THE NORTH. NUMEROUS WAVES EJECT OUT OF 5H TROF OVER CWA...WITH FIRST 7H TROF PUSHING NORTH OF CWA AROUND 12Z THURSDAY...AND NEXT TROF ENTERING CWA AOA 18Z THURSDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH STRONGER WAVE EJECTING OUT OF TROF 00Z FRIDAY AND MOVING OVER ERN CWA. 2H-3H DIVERGENCE HAS INCREASED GREATLY...ALTHO ADMIT SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PSBL. TIMING OF JET SUPPORT...5H AND 7H WAVES AND SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO SERN CWA...ALL POINT TOWARD GOOD CHC OF -TSRA ACROSS ERN CWA. HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY BROWN/SPINK COUNTIES AND EAST. WITH PWATS OVER 1.5" WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PSBLTY FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL CONUS LIFTS ENEWD INTO SOUTHEAST CHUNK OF CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND...CWA SHOULD SEE TWO PERIODS OF CAA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FIRST PERIOD OF CAA ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY S/W ENERGY IN LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH INSERTS COLD FROPA OVER CWA DURING DAY 4. COOLER AIR HOLDS PAT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE S/W IN NW FLOW OVER PAC NW DIVES DOWN INTO BACKSIDE OF LOW AMPLITUDE LW TROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD DRAW MORE COOL/DRY AIR SWD INTO CWA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY PRECIP CONCERN IS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF COLD FROPA AND ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL IN PLACE DURING PEAK HEATING. 00Z GFS IS ACTUALLY PAINTING A DRY WX PICTURE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WAA HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING WHEN NEXT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. TWEAKED MAX/MIN T GRIDS ONLY. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE MN...NONE && HINTZ/DORN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 930 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 .DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING'S KTLH SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS JUICY WITH A PW OF ABOUT 1.75 INCHES. HOWEVER, LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO THE NNW INDICATING THAT TLH IS NOW ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUC ANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES, THE LATTER OF WHICH SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE THE WRN PARTS OF THE AREA AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED SOME WEAK WARMING AT MID LEVELS, SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY. LOOKING AT THE KTLH RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM YESTERDAY, WE SEE A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER OUR ERN ZONES COMPARED TO THE W. THE WRN ZONES WERE ALREADY UNDER NVA YESTERDAY, BUT THE MAIN CONTRIBUTER TO THIS PATTERN WAS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT DELAYED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT PRESENT TODAY, SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE QUITE AS MARKED A DIFFERENCE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE CURRENT POP FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING WITH LOWER CHANCES THAN YESTERDAY AND LESS OF A DIFFERENCE FROM W TO E. && .UPDATE...AS INFERRED ABOVE, THE INHERITED POPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD. ONE SMALL CHANGE WE ANTICIPATE IS RAISING THE POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE ERN 1/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA TO LOW END LIKELY (60). THIS WOULD INCLUDE OUR SC GA AND ERN BIG BEND ZONES AND WOULD ACCOUNT FOR THE DPVA THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. THIS WOULD MESH WELL WITH OUR OFFICES TO THE E AND MOS CONSENSUS ALSO SUPPORTS THIS THINKING. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK. && .MARINE...FOR TODAY, WILL TWEAK WINDS TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM OBSERVED ELY FLOW TO ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY, THE OFFSHORE LEGS MAY SEE THE E WINDS HANG IN THERE MOST OF THE DAY, BUT WE ARE TALKING ONLY ABOUT 20 DEGREES DIFFERENCE FROM THE SE WINDS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. WINDS & SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. NO HEADLINES. && .FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THIS WEEK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 200 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 SHORT RANGE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE UPPER LOW TO NE & WITH TROUGH TO EAST AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THEN TODAY MOST OF THE OMEGA LIFT WOULD BE OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN AGAIN A BIT OF THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE SE U.S. WHERE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY INCREASE POPS A BIT. BY FRIDAY...THE GFS HAS THIS ENERGY EAST OF CWA WITH MORE OF A SEA BREEZE SITUATION OVER THE CWA. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS FROM GFS INDICATE THIS WELL TOO. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... GFS SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH EXPECTED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION POTENTIAL...THEN ON SUNDAY MRF SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS PATTERN OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SE U.S. WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY & SEA BREEZE INITIATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON & EVENINGS. TEMPS REMAINING AROUND NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 89 70 89 70/ 50 20 50 20 PFN 89 72 88 74/ 40 20 40 20 DHN 89 71 89 72/ 40 20 40 20 ABY 88 70 89 71/ 50 20 50 20 VLD 89 70 89 71/ 50 20 50 20 CTY 89 70 88 71/ 50 20 50 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ MCT WOOL/18 fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 939 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 .DISCUSSION...AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGGED BY THE MODELS YESTERDAY HAS MATERIALIZED AND RESULTED IN AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OFFSHORE ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS. RUC MODEL DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL COASTAL TROUGH WHICH ESSENTIALLY REPRESENTS LIGHT FLOW OVER LAND AND INCREASED SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WAS OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE AS RIDGE AXIS HAS MIGRATED TO OUR NORTH. LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DECREASE IN INTENSITY NEAR SHORE WITH MAINLY PATCHES OF RAIN AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE RATHER CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST FROM CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD WILL MEAN THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. THINK THAT THIS WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE STILL RATHER COOL AT ABOUT -9. SO LIKELY POPS OVER THE POPULATED PARTS OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES SHOULD BE OKAY BUT THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER POPULATED EASTERN SECTIONS WHICH WOULD KEEP POPS LOWER THERE. THINK THAT SCATTERED COASTAL POPS ARE IN ORDER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED POPS ALONG CONVERGENCE LINES THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY TREND POPS DOWN TO 30 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF THE COAST. && .MARINE...WIND DATA OVER THE PAST 24 HRS FROM THE LCL DATA BUOY/C-MAN NETWORK SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW S OF THE CAPE. WINDS AT BUOY012/SAUF1 HAVE BEEN AOB 10KTS FOR THE PAST 24 HRS WHILE BUOY009/LKWF1 HAVE SEEN THE CLASSIC AFTN SEA BREEZE SURGE OF 10-15KTS. THIS FITS WITH THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH. WILL TWEAK WINDS DOWN A TOUCH OVER THE NRN LEG...WINDS OVER THE SRN LEG LOOK FINE ONCE CONVECTION/OUTFLOWS WANE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT 2-3FT SEAS ARE ALMOST ENTIRELY COMPRISED OF AN ERLY SWELL. .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...LASCODY MARINE...BRAGAW fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 945 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 SLIGHT UPDATE NEEDED FOR CURRENT PACKAGE...CURRENT RUC AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP ERODING IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO FORECAST FOR THAT AREA...AS CAPES APPROACH 1500 J/KG...THOUGH NO REAL TRIGGER. TEMPS...CLOUDS...WINDS FORECAST LOOK FINE FOR FIRST TWO PERIODS. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ SCHOTT ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1105 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ANOTHER LOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE LOW OVER KANSAS IS CHANNELING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE UPPER 60S THIS MORNING. 305K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING ASCENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ARE TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS SHOWING CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL U.P. THIS MORNING. GFS AND ETA WILL BE PULLING THE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE IS EXTENDS FROM Y62 TO KIMT THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO ALONG THE NORTH LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. AND ALONG THE SHORE ADJACENT TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ETA SHOWING MUCAPE AROUND 4000K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. 125KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX IS OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REACH INTO THE 75+ RANGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PROGGED OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. THIS WILL NEED CAREFUL WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 1050 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004 ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT FORMED IN NE SD MOVED INTO WCNTRL/CNTRL MN THIS MORNING. CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE ROOTED NEAR 700 MB...WHERE RUC SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THIS LEVEL OVER FAR SRN ND INTO CNTRL MN. 700 MB MOISTURE POOL REMAINS OVER SD INTO CNTRL MN THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING BUT DOES DECREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT TO SEE SOME ELEVATED PCPN TO CONTINUE OVER FAR SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN THROUGH THE AFTN THOUGH LIKELY MUCH LESS COVERAGE. OTHERWISE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. THICKER CLDS IN SRN ZONES SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S SO LOWERED HIGHS ACCORDINGLY. NRN ZONES LOOK GOOD. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ RIDDLE nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 315 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT... ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS HAS NUDGED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WHICH HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. ATMOSPHERE HAS MOISTENED UP AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW SO INTERIOR STORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WERE ALREADY APPROACHING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A STORM OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW IS ONLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...THE STEERING IS DEEP ENOUGH (NEARLY 10 THOUSAND FEET ON CANAVERAL PROFILER) TO PUSH SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS INTO COASTAL SECTIONS. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SOME BOUNDARIES OFFSHORE BUT MOST DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. WILL CARRY A 20 PERCENT OVERNIGHT POP ALONG THE COAST. WED-FRI... TIGHT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL RIDE THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE DLM ATLC RIDGE THROUGH THU...SUPPORTED BY A +100KT NRN STREAM H25 JET. CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD PUSH OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE THU/EARLY FRI...WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH A SECOND LOW PRESSURE CELL S OF GREENLAND AND ICELAND BY LATE FRI. THE RESULT OF THE ABOVE SCENARIO WILL BE A DEEP AND WELL SUPPORTED CYCLONE/SHORT WAVE TROF THAT GRADUALLY WILL SUPRESS THE DLM RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO FL THROUGH THE PD. IN ITS PRESENT POSITION...THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE DEEP S/ERLY WINDS FOR ONE MORE DAY...A FLOW REGIME THAT FAVORS THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR ISOLD/SCT NOCTURNAL/MORNING SHRAS AND THE INTERIOR FOR SCT/NMRS AFTN SHRAS/TSTMS. AFTER THAT...MEAN STEERING FLOW WILL VEER TO THE S/SW AS THE ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE SWD...A FLOW REGIME THAT FAVORS THE E FL COAST FOR AFTN CONVECTION. AIRMASS IS QUITE SOUPY WITH 12Z PW VALUES AOA 1.7" STATEWIDE...NEAR 2.0" AT KXMR. UPSTREAM...RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES H100-H50 MEAN RH VALUES ABV 60% OVER THE ENTIRE SW ATLC. "DRIEST" AIR IS OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX WITH MEAN RH VALUES ABV 50%. GFS GUIDANCE HINTS AT THIS AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY FRI AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT THE "DRYING" THAT WILL OCCUR MOST LIKELY WILL BE OFFSET BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. PRECIP PROFILE WILL FLIP FROM SCT COASTAL/LIKELY INTERIOR ON WED TO LIKELY COASTAL/SCT INTERIOR THU AS THE H85-H50 STEERING FLOW VEERS TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE SFC FLOW. SAT-TUE... EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THE DLM ATLC RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE SRN PENINSULA/FL STRAITS AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE SFC TROFS PINCH OFF OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. WRLY H85-H50 FLOW IN THE MID LATITUDES THROUGH THE PD WILL ALLOW THESE SYSTEMS TO PUSH UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE ATLC RIDGE... KEEPING IT SUPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS. EXTENDED PRECIP PROFILE WILL REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHER DIURNAL SHRAS/TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL ZONES. && .MARINE... NO HIGHLIGHTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO SW BY FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES S...BUT PGRAD WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY SUSTAINED WINDS ABV 15KTS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WIND WAVE PDS WILL DECREASE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO OFFSHORE...BUT WILL REMAIN BLO 4FT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 86 72 87 / 20 30 20 60 MCO 72 88 72 88 / 20 60 20 50 MLB 73 85 73 86 / 20 40 10 60 VRB 73 86 72 87 / 20 40 10 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...LASCODY MARINE...BRAGAW fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 500 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004 MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE/STRENGTH THIS EVENING AND PCPN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED NORTH OF THE FRONT. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND STRONG SE CONUS RDG LEAVING WSW FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. A H3 JET TO 120 KT EXTENDED FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO BTWN THE RDG AND MID/UPR LVL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...A FRONT/TROF EXTENDED FROM LOW PRES NEAR JAMES BAY TO CNTRL UPR MI TO NE NEB. THE TROF ALONG WITH LAKE BREEZE BNDRY FROM LK SUPERIOR HAS TRIGGERED TSRA OVER N CNTRL UPR MI WHERE CAPE VALUES HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 2K J/KG. GENERALLY NE MOVEMENT OF HEAVIER CELLS SEEMS LINKED WITH BATCH OF LIFT H3 JET UPR LVL DIV OR WEAK SHRTWV THAT SUPPORTED ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR. TSTMS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH LK BNDRY ADVANCING INTO SRN MARQUETTE COUNTY. WEAKER LOW LVL CONV INTO S CNTRL UPR MI HAS KEPT STRONGER TSRA FROM DEVELOPING. INTERSECTION OF LK MI AND LK SUPERIOR BNDRIES NEAR SENEY SUPPORTED ISOLD BUT STRONG TSRA. FARTHER S...WEAKER CONV AND AND LESS MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT HAS MINIMIZED COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF SHRA/TSRA. WEAK LOW LVL WIND SHEAR OR 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH HIGH FZLVL AND WBZERO HAS ALSO LIMITED HAIL OR WIND THREAT. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY TO NEAR 3K J/KG SRN UPR MI...SOME ISOLD PULSE-LIKE STORMS MAY HOWEVER PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SVR (0.75 INCH) SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO SRN UPR MI. MDLS SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED SHRA AND FEW TSRA MAY REDEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE INTO MAINLY THE SRN HLF OF UPR MI. MDLS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY RECENTLY IN HANDLING SUCH DETAILS AND ETA/GFS STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF QPF. MAIN MECHANISM TO SUPPORT -SHRA WILL BE 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE FROM JET STREAKS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...SINCE THE ETA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH STRONG MID LVL MOISTENING...IT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE THAT AN AREA OF PCPN WOULD DEVELOP. MENTION OF ONLY TSTM CHANCE ALSO RETAINED AS EVEN THE GFS ONLY DEPICTS WEAK (300-500 J/KG) OF MUCAPE. INCREASING NRLY FLOW OFF OF LK SUPERIOR WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO NORTH UPR MI WITH MAX READINGS NEAR THE SHORE BLO ALREADY COOL GUIDANCE IN THE MID 50S. SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING S SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S. ANY LINGERING WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER GRT LAKES WITH CONFLUENT MID/UPR LVL FLOW DEVELOPING BTWN BTWN RDG INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY AND TROF OVER ERN CANADA. ACYC ENE FLOW WILL KEEP COOL DRY AIR FLOWING INTO UPR MI...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. FRI...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WERE DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON WEST AND FRI NIGHT AS GFS/UKMET...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE ARE SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES IN A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. SAT THROUGH TUE...ECMWF/UKMET/GFS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF TROF/FRONT EXITING UPR MI SAT...WITH MAINLY MORNING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER THE E HLF OF UPR MI. MAIN QUESTION FROM SUN INTO MON IS STRENGTH/SPEED OF THE MID LVL TROF MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GRT LAKES. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS JUSTIFIED BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT...PER UKMET WITH A SLOWER TROF PROGRESSION. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 1035 AM MDT TUE JUN 8 2004 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND INTO SOUTHEAST SD. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BRINGING COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA TO THE LOWER 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. FOR THIS AFT...BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NEB AND SE SD. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAK SHRTWV ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD THIS AFT. RUC PROGS ELEVATED CAPE OF OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFT. WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM IEN TO PHP AND POINTS TO THE EAST. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER TODD...MELLETTE...AND TRIPP CO LATE THIS AFT AND EARLY THIS EVE. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFT...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HAVE TWEEKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A BIT AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. && UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .SD...NONE. .WY...NONE. $$ sd