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USDA Long-Term
Macroeconomic Outlook (annually in February) provides the projections underlying
the USDA baseline. Movements in real (adjusted for inflation)
exchange rates and growth in income influence the long-term
trade outlook.
U.S. Trade Growth: A New Beginning or a Repeat of the Past? (September 2007) evaluates how global economic growth patterns and domestic macroeconomic conditions have influenced recent trends in U.S. agricultural trade. Emerging market growth, a weaker dollar, and the potential for slower domestic consumption growth suggest a continuation of robust export growth and moderating demand for imports. For the full report, see Global Growth, Macroeconomic Change, and U.S. Agricultural Trade (September 2007).
China Currency Appreciation Could Boost U.S. Agricultural Exports (August 2007) reports that China's undervalued exchange rate keeps prices of most U.S. food and agricultural products too high to be competitive in China. Appreciation of the Chinese currency will increase the purchasing power of Chinese consumers on world markets and increase China's demand for imported commodities.
Weaker
Dollar Strengthens U.S. Agriculture (February 2007) provides an overview
of the impact of the current depreciation of the U.S.
dollar. The depreciating dollar combined with strong economic
growth in developing countries has increased the competitive
advantage of U.S. agriculture and stimulated export demand
for U.S. agricultural products. However, fixed currencies,
trade policies, and imperfect markets can reduce the effects
of depreciation.
Canada: A Macroeconomic
Study of the United States' Most Important Trade
Partner (September
2006) reports that Canada is a large exporter to
the United States of critical raw materials—including
natural gas, petroleum, and wood products—and a
substantial importer of finished industrial and consumer
goods. Agricultural trade between the two countries continues
to grow in importance, reflecting trade liberalization
and greater integration of agricultural markets.
New Directions in China's
Agricultural Lending (January
2006) reports that China doubled the
balance of loans to farmers between 2001 and 2005. Rural
credit cooperatives and banks are being commercialized,
but rural lending is still influenced by policy.
China: A Study of Dynamic
Growth (October 2004) assesses China's rapid economic growth since
1978, which has been driven by high rates of investment,
gains in productivity, and liberalized foreign trade and
investment. China's growth is likely to continue, but
the Chinese economy faces some potentially unsustainable
pressures, including possible currency appreciation, rising
rural-urban inequality, unemployment, banking reforms,
and an unusual combination of inflationary and deflationary
tendencies.
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