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Appendix F: Index Comparisons: Heavy and Light Rail Composite Input Cost Indices Versus the Producer Price Index (PPI)


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Index Comparisons

Heavy and Light Rail Composite Input Costs Indexes
versus
The Producer Price Index (PPI)


Tested Variables:

Total Heavy Rail Index

Total Light Rail Index




Heavy Rail Cost Index -- Total, (HR)

Percent Change Tests, Interval Q, 85:2 to 94:2

AVG(%(HR)) = 0.6

AVG(%(PPI)) = 0.4

STDDEV(%(HR)) = 0.224

STDDEV(%(PPI)) = 1.055


  CORRELATION VECTOR
  ------------------

DATED QUARTERLY(1985:2 TO 1994:2)

            (0)

0) %(HR)   1.000
1) %(PPI)  0.132


              ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES
              ----------------------

QUARTERLY(1985:2 TO 1994:2)   37 OBSERVATIONS
DEPENDENT VARIABLE:   %(HR)

         COEFFICIENT   STD. ERROR    T-STAT    INDEPENDENT VARIABLE

           0.605843     0.03795       15.96    CONSTANT

1)       0.0338945     0.03360       1.009    %(PPI)

2)        0.129336     0.05611       2.305    +0.98*SEASONQ1+0.02*SEASONQ2-
                                                0.20*SEASONQ3-0.80*SEASONQ4

R-BAR SQUARED:  0.1002
DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC:  0.9922
STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION:  0.2150   NORMALIZED:  0.3468

Percent Changes, Heavy Rail Cost Index (HR) Solid Line, PPI Shaded Line
 



Heavy Rail Cost Index -- Total

Level Tests, Interval Q, 85:1 to 94:2


  CORRELATION VECTOR
  ------------------

DATED QUARTERLY(1985:1 TO 1994:2)

          (0)

0) #HR   1.000
1) #PPI  0.961


              ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES
              ----------------------

QUARTERLY(1985:1 TO 1994:2)   38 OBSERVATIONS
DEPENDENT VARIABLE:   #HR

         COEFFICIENT   STD. ERROR    T-STAT    INDEPENDENT VARIABLE

         -0.0391359     0.05583     -0.7010    CONSTANT

1)         1.08382     0.05183       20.91    #PPI

R-BAR SQUARED:  0.9218
DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC:  0.3313
STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION:  0.02183   NORMALIZED:  0.01939



Levels, Heavy Rail Cost Index (#HR) Solid Line, PPI Shaded Line



Light Rail Cost Index -- Total, (LR)

Percent Change Tests, Interval Q, 85:2 to 94:2

AVG(%(LR)) = 0.7

AVG(%(PPI)) = 0.4

STDDEV(%(LR)) = 0.302

STDDEV(%(PPI)) = 1.055


  CORRELATION VECTOR
  ------------------

DATED QUARTERLY(1985:2 TO 1994:2)

             (0)

0) %(LR)    1.000
1) %(PPI)  -0.017


              ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES
              ----------------------

QUARTERLY(1985:2 TO 1994:2)   37 OBSERVATIONS
DEPENDENT VARIABLE:   %(LR)

         COEFFICIENT   STD. ERROR    T-STAT    INDEPENDENT VARIABLE

           0.661434     0.04672       14.16    CONSTANT

1)       0.0107239     0.04141      0.2590    %(PPI)

2)        0.296483     0.07814       3.794    +0.64*SEASONQ1+0.36*SEASONQ2-
                                                0.16*SEASONQ3-0.84*SEASONQ4

R-BAR SQUARED:  0.2563
DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC:  1.0322
STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION:  0.2644   NORMALIZED:  0.3954

Percent Changes, Light Rail Cost Index -- Total, (LR) Solid Line, PPI Shaded Line


Light Rail Cost Index -- Total, (LR)

Level Tests, Interval Q, 85:1 to 94:2

  CORRELATION VECTOR
  ------------------

DATED QUARTERLY(1985:1 TO 1994:2)

          (0)

0) #LR   1.000
1) #PPI  0.961


              ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES
              ----------------------

QUARTERLY(1985:1 TO 1994:2)   38 OBSERVATIONS
DEPENDENT VARIABLE:   #LR

         COEFFICIENT   STD. ERROR    T-STAT    INDEPENDENT VARIABLE

          -0.124894     0.06105      -2.046    CONSTANT

1)         1.17801     0.05668       20.78    #PPI

R-BAR SQUARED:  0.9209
DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC:  0.3546
STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION:  0.02387   NORMALIZED:  0.02091



Levels, Light Rail Cost Index -- Total, (#LR) Solid Line, PPI Shaded Line