WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
300 AM MDT SUN JUN 19 1999
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COLORADO CORNER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HINTS AT A MINOR UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE.. AND 06Z 300MB HEIGHT VORTICITY FIELD FROM THE RUC
CONFIRMS THIS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA..
THUNDERSTORMS ENDED BEFORE SUNSET. SIMILAR PATTERN TODAY WITH LONG
WAVE RIDGE AXIS HOLDING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY APPEARED TO PEAK AROUND NOON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.. BELIEVE
THAT WAS THE RESULT OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THURSDAYS
RAIN. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN 5-7F LOWER THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. WITH LESS AVAILABLE SURFACE
MOISTURE.. LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED. BUT
12 HOUR RUC MODEL SHOWS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SAUNTERING ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO IN A WEAK WIND FLOW PATTERN.. THEREFORE THINK THAT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY BUT LATER IN THE DAY. IN
THE FOUR CORNER REGION AND OVER THE SAN JUANS.. PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING THE THUNDER
THREAT. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO..
OTHERWISE CONTINUED WITH PERSISTENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
MONDAY.. PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER TO SCATTERED FOR ALL
MOUNTAIN AREAS. FRISBIE
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN
A NORMAL LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY.
.GJT...NONE.
FXUS65 KGJT 200858 co
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
929 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
KBYX RADAR IS DEVOID OF ECHOES IN EYW CWA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOWN DISSIPATING OVER THE GULF WELL TO THE W/NW.
WINDS ALONG THE KEYS AND OFFSHORE CONTINUE LIGHT FROM S THRU E.
SATELLITE INDICATES DECREASING TREND IN MID/HI CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
HIGHER POPS THIS EVENING WERE PREDICATED ON DEVELOPMENT OF CUBAN
ACTIVITY HOWEVER CUBA REMAINED RATHER QUIET THIS AFTERNOON.
00Z SOUNDING LOOKS RIPE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT(-6 LI...35 KI...
33K B+...AND >2 IN PW)...HOWEVER WITH LIMITED OUTFLOWS FROM MEAGER
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND LIGHT SYNOPTIC WINDS...CONVERGENT AREAS TO
INITIATE CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. WITH THIS IN MIND POPS
CAN BE LOWERED INTO THE ISO/WDLY SCT RANGE FOR TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED
BY FWC GUIDANCE.
LATEST RUC KEEPS WINDS GENERALLY SE AT LESS THAN 10 KT AND MARINE
WINDS CAN BE ADUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
.EYW...NONE.
JEB
FXUS62 KMLB 210129 fl
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
920 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
A LARGE...BUT GRADUALLY SHRINKING AREA...OF LIGHT TO MODERATE DEBRIS
TYPE RAIN PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR FROM LAL-KSM-MCO.
21Z RUC DEPICTS SW-NE CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL PENINSULA.
THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY ALLOWING MODERATE RAIN TO PERSIST ACROSS POLK
AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES...STRETCHING IT NE ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND
PROVIDING THE OVERALL "TWIST" SEEN IN RADAR LOOPS. ALSO...SHOWERS
ARE GETTING AN EARLY START OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING
PRIMARILY NORTH. RUC SHOWS H7 VORT LOBE MOVING NW TOWARDS GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND OVERNIGHT WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST TOWARDS
MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES.
FORECAST...EXPECT RAINFALL CURRENTLY OVER PENINSULA TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BUT MAY NEED TO KEEP SOME POPS IN OVERNIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR. GIVEN MOVEMENT OF COASTAL SHOWERS...STEERING FLOW
HAS LIKELY BECOME SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP ACTIVITY FROM MAKING IT
VERY FAR INLAND...BUT COULD GIVE SOME COASTAL SECTIONS HEAVY RAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. PRIMARY THREAT AREA APPEARS TO BE MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTY COASTS.
WILL WAIT TO UPDATE FORECAST...MAINLY TO REMOVE THUNDER AND LOWER
POPS ALONG COAST...AND PERHAPS REMOVE THEM ENTIRELY FROM INTERIOR.
MARINE...COASTAL LEGS REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF SFC TROUGH WHICH IS
KEEPING BAGGY PRES PATTERN AND FAIRLY LIGHT S-SE WINDS. BUOY 9 HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY AROUND 5 KTS SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH
THE WINDS AS LIGHT AS THEY ARE...SEAS ARE STILL HOVERING ABOVE 3 FT
(NEARLY 4FT LAST FEW HRS). SO...WILL TWEAK WINDS OVER FLG-COF LEG
DOWN A LITTLE WHILST NUDGING SEAS BACK UP TO 2-4FT.
.MLB...NONE.
KELLY/CRISTALDI
FXUS72 KMFL 210110 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
951 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
JUST SENT OUT QUICK AMD ZONES FOR OUR EXTREME SRN CWFA WHERE SHOWERS
ONGOING. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF H50 S/W (SEE 09Z RUC) BLV CATEGORICAL
PCPN (ALL DAY SHOWERS) WILL CONTINUE. WITH PARTS OF LEE COUNTY
STILL SOAKED AFTER FRI AND SAT RAINS WILL BE MONITORING FOR URBAN
FLD ADZYS OR PSBL FLOOD WARNINGS.
CURRENTLY...12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED BROAD BUT WKNG E FLOW PREVAILING
ACRS THE SUNSHINE STATE. THE OLD BDRY EXTENDS FM BUOY 03 TO BUOY 36
IN THE GULF...THEN TO AROUND CTY TO SGJ AND PARALLELING THE COAST FM
GA THRU THE CAROLINAS. KTBW SNDG WAS SOMEWHAT DRIER THAN IN PVS
DAYS WITH PCP WATER VLUS AT 1.56. HOWEVER...GOOD LOW LVL ESE FLOW
EXTENDS TO 650 MB. MEANWHILE...KXMR (CANAVERAL) SNDG IN RAIN SHOWED
PCP WATER VLUS NEARING 2.0. A SUBJECTIVE MODIFICATION OF THE KTBW
SNDG GAVE PCP WATER VLUS NEAR 1.9 BY AFTN ALONG WITH A LI OF -7.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERDOING TROPICAL MOISTURE RECOVERY. WITH LOW
LVL FLOW PROGGED TO VEER A BIT MORE TO THE SE (BOTH RAFS AND ETA
SHOW THIS) BY MON EXPECT PCP WATER VLUS TO AVERAGE BTWN 1.8 AND 2.2
ACRS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE PENINSULA. COMBINE THAT WITH A DECENT H50
S/W AXIS WHICH TAKES UP RESIDENCE ALONG THE PENINSULA BY MON...AND
WK STEERING FLOW...AND WE COULD BE TALKING MORE SOAKING RAINS FOR
AREAS THAT DON'T NEED IT.
REMAINDER OF ZONES LOOK GOOD...THOUGH POPS COULD BE HIGHER IN LEVY
CO IF MOISTURE RECOVERS QUICKLY ENOUGH. SINCE PCPN ALREADY IN THE
FCST WILL NOT CHANGE FOR NOW.
BASED ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVALUATION OF THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER FFA'S FOR A PORTION OF THE CWFA THIS AFTN
OR OVERNIGHT. STAY TUNED...
MARINE: LOOKS LIKE E WINDS 10-15 KT OFSHR AND AROUND 10 KT (WITH
BRIEF GUSTS TO 15 KT) NEARSHORE THROUGH TNGT. WINDS MAY BACK TO NE
MON (ESP OFSHR) IF SFC TROF DVLPS NEAR THE COAST.
GOLDSMITH
FXUS72 KMFL 201349 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
940 AM EST SUN JUN 20 1999
FEW CHNGS TO GOING ZNS. LTST SAT TREND AND 09Z RUC MSTR
ANLYSIS INDICATING AC ALONG AND S OF SRN TIER OF CWA TO MOVE ENE
KEEPING MUCH OF FA MSNY. SOME HIGH CLDS LTR THIS AFTN PSBL SPILLING
OVR WK RDG. TEMPS CURRENTLY RUNNING AT OR A FEW ABOVE MOS 3HRLYS...
MAY BOOST IN COUNTIES TO LWR 80S BASED ON 15Z READINGS.
.IWX...NONE
PBM
in
GOODLAND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1101 AM MDT (1201 PM CDT) SUN JUN 20 1999
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. AS MENTIONED IN HWO...LAPS
CAPES ALREADY OVER 2K JOULES OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SECONDARY
AREA FROM IMPERIAL SOUTHEAST WHERE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. VAD
WIND INDICATING GOOD TURNING WITH HEIGHT WITH OK SPEEDS. SHORTWAVE
ALSO EVIDENT TRAVERSING THE COLORADO/NEBRAKSA BORDER AND THIS MAY BE
A TRIGGER FOR LATER TRW. STRATUS TOUGH TO GO BUT LATEST RUC
INDICATING ALL BUT FAR EASTERN CWA SHOULD BURN OFF. THIS ALL HANDLED
WELL IN CURRENT PACKAGE. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER FAR WESTERN
KANSAS WHERE HERE IN GLD WERE GUSTING TO 25KTS. UPPED THE WINDS TO
BREEZY. TEMPS LOOK GOOD.
.GLD...NONE.
THEDE
FXUS63 KICT 201658 A ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
230 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
CLOUDS JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR COUNTY FORECAST AREA (CFA) HAVE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATED AS THEY TRY TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA. THE RUC
DATA CONTINUES THIS TREND FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE WE DO NOT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BUILDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION DURING TH NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR US THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN
TO THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN...WARM AND HUMID DAYS AND MUGGY
NIGHTS. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY BUT WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
FAN AND FWC TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.
.SDF...NONE.
JA
FXUS63 KJKL 201511 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
900 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 1999
HAVE A FEW SUGGESTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AS PER RUC
WEAK VORT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD NE TX ALONG WITH
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SURROUNDING
STATES MAY PRODUCE MORE DEVELOPMENT REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NE TX. MAY NEED TO KEEP POPS IN AND RE-WORD
THOSE SECTIONS SLIGHTLY. FOR N LA ZONE REWORD FOR EITHER PARTLY
CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST AND LEAVE OUT MENTION OF FAIR.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
FXUS64 KLCH 210046 la
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1015 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE NE ACRS THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF AREA THIS
MRNG. THE NW PART AREA HAS CLDS BUT NO PRECIP. RAIN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW COMING ACRS THE FA.
ALSO THE PRECIP IS BEING ENHANCED AS PER 12Z RUC A WK SW MOVES NE
ACRS AREA THIS AFTN. NOTICED MORE RN DVLPG TO SW AND THIS MATCHES
WITH GOOD QVECTOR FORCING DEPICTED ON RUC. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHD
BE OUT OF THE AREA BY TNGT HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED E LOW LEVEL FLOW
NOT THAT CONFIDENT AND WITH STILL ANOTHER SW BACK TO SW COULD STILL
SEE MORE PRECIP FOR TNGT. FOR NOW WL NOT CHG FCST AND GET A LOOK AT
NEW MODELS TO SEE IF THEY HAVE ANY SIGNS OF THIS OR MORE PRECIP.
WL LOWER TEMPS BACK INTO 60S WITH THE RN AND CLDS. WL ALSO RAISE
POPS TO CAT E AND LKLY OVR CNTRL PART FA WITH NO POPS NW.
.LWX...NONE.
JAB
md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
935 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
H3 RAOBS AT 00Z INDICATE UPR LVL RDG AXIS OVR MN WITH TROF ALG W CST
AND OVR ERN GRT LKS. WV LOOP SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SUBSIDING AIRSTREAM
FM WRN ONTARIO INTO NRN GRT LKS ON E SIDE OF RDG AXIS DOWN ARND BASE
OF SHRTWV DROPPING ESEWD NR LK HURON. SFC CHART INDICATES RDG AXIS
UNDER CONFLUENCE/NVA E OF UPR RDG EXTENDING WWD FM HI CENTER E OF LK
HURON INTO CWA. SUBSIDENCE AS FCST BY MODELS IN ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR
DVGC HAS CLRD MOST CLD OUT OF CWA. 00Z SFC WNDS/DWPTS IN RDG AXIS
OVR CWA LGT/45 E-NR 55W. INTERACTION OF SHRTWVS LIFTING OUT OF WRN
TROF AND MSTR AXIS IN PLAINS CAUSING DVLPMNT OF CNVCTN TO W OF UPR
RDG AXIS. DEBRIS HI CLD FM ACTIVITY IN NW MN APRCHG WRN LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR OVRNGT ARE MIN TEMPS. 21Z RUC INDICATES H3
RDG AXIS TO REMAIN W OF CWA WITH UPR LVL CONFLUENCE/NVA CONTG THRU
09Z WHILE SFC RDG AXIS REMAINS OVR FA. SO XPCT NOTHING MORE THAN
DEBRIS HI CLD OVR MAINLY WRN ZNS. COMBINATION OF HI CLD...A BIT
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT/STRGR SLY BLYR WND AND HIER DWPTS WL HOLD MIN
TEMPS UP ACRS WRN ZNS. WL UPDATE THERE TO RAISE FCST TEMPS CLOSER TO
LAMP GUIDANCE NUMBERS...60 AT IWD. LO TEMPS WL FALL LWR OVR E WITH
DRIER AIR/WEAKER GRADIENT IN PLACE. MIN TEMPS FCST THERE LOOKS ON
TARGET.
.MQT..NONE.
KC
FXUS63 KAPX 202356 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EXTENDED PERIOD.
CURRENT SFC OBS SHOW THE UP BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A SFC HIGH WHICH IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL AID
WARMING AND INCREASE THE HUMIDITY DURING THE WEEK.
TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW OVER THE FA KEEPS THINGS MILD. ANY SHOWERS
REMAINING IN THE WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BY EVENING.
700-300MB QV DIVERGENCE...ALONG WITH LOW 1000-500MB RH WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY. 500MB RIDGE ALSO MOVES ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT. FWC
GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR TEMPS...GETTING DOWN TO LOW 50S MOST
LOCATIONS.
MONDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED A SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN
MONTANA AT 12Z SUNDAY...WHICH APPROACHES THE FA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A FACTOR DURING THE
DAY...BUT WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE. ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT ON 305K
SURFACE ACROSS THE UP DURING THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE IN
THE WESTERN AREAS. WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP WEST OF THE FA
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE THETA E AXIS LIES AND GREATEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
SUNDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT...ETA SEEMS TO BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THE 15Z RUC HAS THE SHORTWAVE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. SO PREFER THE NGM
HANDLING...WITH THE SHORTWAVE A LITTLE WEAKER AND A LITTLE BIT NORTH
OF THE FA. EITHER WAY...BOTH MODELS GENERATE PRECIP OVER WESTERN
HALF OF FA. THINK THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WEST
OF THE FA DURING THE DAY MAY BRUSH WESTERN...AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
ZONES...AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. ALSO...STABILITY INDICES NOT
OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CAPES 100 TO 200 J/KG AND
LI'S ABOVE 0. NGM MOS HAS 34 POP FOR MARQUETTE...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE. WILL GO HIGHER POPS FOR WESTERNMOST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT...55 TO 60 RANGE...IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION CONTINUES THE WARM PATTERN.
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER FA DURING THE DAY. MODELS KEPT PRECIP OVER
ZONES EARLY IN DAY. SEEMED REASONABLE GIVEN FACTORS MENTIONED
ABOVE..SO KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS IN FOR THE MORNING. A TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH GOOD
700-300MB QV CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE...BUT TOO FAR WEST TO AFFECT
FA. THINK THAT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A LITTLE MORE FROM MONDAY...TO NEAR
80.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE
BEGINS TO MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE FA. BEST FORCING IS TO THE NORTH OF
THE FA...BUT THINK IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF CONVECTION IN THE
WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
WARM...HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH
SURFACE FRONT LOCATED WEST AND NORTH OF FA...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MRF STRENGTHENS
500MB RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND BRINGS 850MB TEMPS TO
20+ DEGREES C...SO WENT WITH HIGHS NEAR 85 AND WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
.MQT..NONE.
JS
FXUS63 KDTX 201945 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS.
KMQT 88D INDICATED SCT -SHRA OVER WRN UPR MI BTWN IWD...ONTONAGON
AND EGV. VIS LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS HAD DISSIPATED OVER CNTRL UPR MI
LEAVING CLOUD EDGE FROM ONTONAGON TO NEAR IMT. PCPN AND CLOUDS
SUPPORTED BY 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH SRLY FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES
RDG OVER EAST AND TROF OVER NRN PLAINS. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITH COND PRES DEF RISING THIS
AFTERNOON...PER 12Z RUC. SRLY 950 WINDS TO 10 KNOTS WEAK ENOUGH TO
ALLOW LK BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MODIFIED SNDGS WITH 74/54 T/TD GIVE CAPES AROUND 400 J/KG WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMP IN LOW 70S...THOUGH 700-500 TEMPS HAVE WARMED SINCE
YESTERDAY. LIKE YESTERDAY...CLOUD EDGE SHOULD PROVIDE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BNDRY. THIS ALONG WITH LK BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME WDLY SCT -SHRA BTWN CMX...MQT AND IMT. WITH MINIMAL
CAPES...WL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER.
FCST 850 TEMPS NEAR 10C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH FCST MAXES IN 70
TO 75 RANGE WITH COOLER READINGS NEAR LAKES.
.MQT..NONE.
JLB
FXUS63 KAPX 201426 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1025 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
STUBBORN SURFACE HIGH REMAINS STRONG OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LAKE BREEZES TODAY.
JUST A FEW HIGH/MID CLOUDS OVER REGION ATTM. RUC SHOWS LOW CLOUDS TO
THE WEST MOVING NORTHEAST WHICH HIGH CLOUDS TO THE WEST MOVING
SOUTHEAST. RECONSTRUCTED AND MODIFIED KAPX 12Z SOUNDING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVES A CAPE OF 100-200 J/KG AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD
JUST BE REACHED. SO SHOULD BE SOME CU AROUND TODAY BUT NOT AS MUCH
AS YESTERDAY...AND LESS HIGH/MID CLOUDS...AND WILL GO MOSTLY SUNNY.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH 700MB THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW
LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP EARLY AND PUSH INLAND 10 TO 20 MILES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS READINGS AWAY FROM LAKES
WITH MAYBE A DEG OR TWO ADDED ON FOR ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPS IN LIGHT WINDS.
SHOWERS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE
STRAITS...BUT WEAK WIND WILL ALLOW FOR VERY LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND
QG FORCING IS ABSENT TODAY. SO NO MENTION OF PRECIP.
.APX...NONE.
FARINA
mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 1999
FCST PROBLEMS TO AGAIN BE PRECIP CHANCES/TIMING OVER NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOIST
LOW LAYERS AND ENOUGH SUNSHINE...AS WELL AS CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE
BREEZE. MSAS HAS LI'S BELOW -3 IN WESTERN THIRD. ALL MODELS HINTED AT
SOME DEVELOPMENT AT THIS AND AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHED. RUC WAS
THE ONLY MODEL TO REALLY PICK UP ON LOWER VORT IN NORTHEAST SD...SO
FOLLOWED IT FOR SHORTER TERM. ETA DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB ON NORTH ONE
INTO NORTHEAST ND...SO STUCK WITH ETA LATER ON. THIS ONE TO AFFECT
NRN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS CWA LATE TNGT AND ON MONDAY. DRIER AIR AND NVA TO BRING
DECREASING CLOUDS TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS LATER TOMORROW...AND
DIMINISH SHOWERS/CLOUDS EASTWARD ACROSS CWA MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS
ACTIVE LATER TUESDAY AFTN AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MN...
AND THEN ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA DURING THE NIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP WARM UP LAKESIDE AREAS...
EXCEPT GNA.
GUIDANCE TEMPS FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR CWA...AND LOOK REASONABLE AS WELL.
.DLH...NONE.
TAP
FXUS63 KMPX 201944 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1030 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 1999
FORECAST CONCERN AGAIN INVOLVES PRECIPITATION TIMING AND LOCATION.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA MOVING EASTWARD. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH 250 MB
AGEOSTROPHIC DIVERGENCE. RUC AND ETA FORECAST THIS DIVERGENCE TO
MOVE EASTWARD NORTH OF CWA SO HAVE NOT EXPANDED PRECIPITATION AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM EARLIER ZONES.
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE WEAKENED DURING LAST
HOUR OR SO...AND WITH WEAK FORCING...HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR
WEST CENTRAL MN. DIFFICULT ENVISIONING SHOWERS MAINTAINING
THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN...SO DELETED MENTION
OF SHOWERS THERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL WI HAS
ENDED...SO DELETED MENTION OF RAIN TODAY FOR THERE.
850 MB THETA-E RIDGE REMAINS OVER DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SO
MORE CONVECTION LIKELY TO FIRE ALONG THETA-E RIDGE AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS MN. DELETED SPECIFIC TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND USED MORE OF BROADBRUSH DUE TO LACK OF FEATURES TO
FOCUS ON.
.MSP...NONE.
NAISTAT
FXUS63 KDLH 200836 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
330 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 1999
RESOLVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINS THE CHALLENGE TODAY.
SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING IN AN
AREA OF BROAD WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. RUC ALSO HINTS AT A VERY WEAK
S/W MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHICH WAS PROBABLY HELPING TO
GENERATE THE LIGHT SHOWERS.
AVN HAS THE MOST DIFFERENCES WITH THE OVERALL FEATURES TODAY INTO MONDAY.
ETA APPEARS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB AS IT HAS DEFINED THE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX FAIRLY WELL IN THE DAKOTAS. MESOETA
ALSO APPEARS TO BE DOING A GOOD JOB...AND HAVE WENT WITH THE
ETA/MESO-ETA FOR THE DETAILS.
THE SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX NOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS IN THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD IN A FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BY TONIGHT. DYNAMIC LIFT IS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD MEAN A DECENT
SHOT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT. HAVE USED 50 POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT...AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT IN THE NORTH. THE
NORTH WILL BE IN AN AREA OF NVA FOR QUITE A WHILE TONIGHT...AND MUCH
CLOSER TO THE DRY AIR IN ONTARIO.
NVA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME SUNSHINE TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY...BUT FEEL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
IT. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER...WITH LOWER LI AND HIGHER
CAPE GRADUALLY NUDGE EASTWARD. STILL NOT THAT UNSTABLE UNTIL TUESDAY.
HAVE CUT FAN/FWC TEMPS DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. COULD BE
QUITE WARM ANY AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...BUT BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS...WENT FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
.DLH...NONE.
DAP
FXUS63 KMPX 200834 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
855 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CSTL TROF JUST OFF THE CST WHILE MSAS
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LO NEAR FPSN7. KLTX 88D REFLECTIVITY IMAGES
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS LO DEVELOPMENT. 21Z RUC2 SEEMS TO HAVE A GRASP
ON THIS FEATURE...DRIFTING IT NWD THRU THE NGT. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL
BE SWINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NE ALONG THE CST. BULK OF RW
OFFSHORE SHOULD MOVE ASHORE N OF CWA WHILE RW- ACROSS MAINLY INLAND
CWA ARE DISSIPATING. BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY RW OVRNGT W/ THE TROF
NEARBY & WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING SLGT CHC POPS. FOG INDICES PREDICT
DENSE FOG FOR THE SRN FCST AREA & FLO ALREADY REPORTING 1 1/2SM. AM
TOYING W/ THE NOTION OF RAISING A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR SC CWA BUT WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF & LET MID SHIFT RE-ASSESS. WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE
A MENTION OF FOG IN THIS UPDATE. W/ DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S INLAND...
TEMPS LOOK FINE THERE. WILL RAISE SLIGHTLY ALONG THE CST WHERE DEWPTS
ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER ATTM.
CWF: W/ THE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROF...WILL ADJUST DIRECTIONS
SLIGHTLY. ALL ELSE LOOKS FINE.
.ILM...NONE.
LGE
FXUS62 KMHX 210042 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
MSAS SFC STREAMLINES ARE SHARPENING THE SFC TROF CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 09Z RUC SLIGHTLY DEEPENS AND MOVES LOW LEVEL COASTAL TROF
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WI INCREASING RAIN POTENTIAL. THEREFORE WILL
INCREASE AFTN POPS INLAND.
CWF...WITH SHARPENING TROF AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN PGRAD...FPSN7
STILL PRETTY BREEZY AND SEAS ON EDGE OF SCA CRITERIA...BUT FCST
MODELS KEEP WINDS LESS THAN CURRENT...AND EXPECT CURRENT WINDS TO
DECREASE AS TROF MOVES INLAND...WI HIR GUSTS IN SHOWERS. WILL NOT
RESUME SCA...BUT WILL MODIFY CWF ACCORDINGLY.
.ILM...NONE.
MATHESON
FXUS72 KRAH 201349 nc
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
855 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 1999
NO UPDATE PLANNED. CURRENT FCST PACKAGE ON TRACK...WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS
STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE FGF CWFA.
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF NWRN MN STILL GENERATING LIGHT PCPN THERE. BREAKS
IN CLOUDS SHOULD BE SHORT TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MID AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STILL AVAILABLE...AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IS PULLING THROUGH ERN MT AND SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. 21Z RUC SHOWS MOST H8 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
CNTRL ND THROUGH 09Z...AND WOULD EXPECT CONTINUED SHIFT INTO ERN ND
TOWARDS 12Z. CURRENT TEMP FCSTS LOOK REASONABLE...WITH MIXED CLOUD
COVER AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPING MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS
THE CWFA.
.FGF...NONE.
GUST
FXUS63 KBIS 202022 nd
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
230 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 1999
...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...
ALL MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY RESOLVING U/A PATTERN OVER THE NRN
PLAINS IN THE SHORT TERM. 15Z RUC CAUGHT S/W OVER ND BUT NOT AS GOOD AT
HANDLING WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH MT AND WY. ETA WAS GENERALLY THE
CLOSEST TO THE RUC. IN THE LATER PDS...ETA BRINGS VIGOROUS S/W INTO
EXTREME NRN PLAINS BY 48 HRS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. THIS UNREASONABLE
CONSIDERING FAST 5H FLOW...WITH WEAKER NGM SOLUTION PREFERRED. WILL GO
WITH BLEND OF ETA/RUC IN SHORT TERM...THEN TREND TOWARD NGM IN LATE
PDS.
.SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER NRN FA THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS TRACKING NE. ANOTHER BAND OF
PCPN OVER FAR SW FA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CIRCULATION MOVING E ALONG
ND/SD BORDER. CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM OVER NE ND WHILE
COOLING NOTED WITH SRN AREA OF PCPN. BOTH SYSTEMS MOVING INTO AREA OF
MORE STABLE AIR...AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING AND RADAR DATA TRENDS
SUGGEST BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE OVER NORTHEAST ZONES THIS
EVENING AND WILL WORD ZFP ACCORDINGLY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN ND THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD MOVE INTO FA LATE TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES AGAIN OVER
THE NORTH. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT TEMPS TO
REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...S/W OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO WORK INTO FAR NW MN DURING
THE DAY KEEPING CHC FOR PRECIPITATION THERE GOING. WITH ATMOSPHERE
THERE BECOMING MORE STABLE WILL ONLY MENTION MORNING SHOWERS. Q VECTOR
ANALYSIS SHOW AREA OF DIVERGENCE OF Q SPREADING EAST OVER FA BEHIND S/W
WITH 1000 TO 500 MB RH DECREASING. MORE SUN AND CONTINUING WAA TO PUSH
TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 80S. CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
AS NEXT S/W MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM TO BRING ANOTHER CHC
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARM
SRLY FLOW CONTINUING.
.EXTENDED...WHILE UKMET/ECMWF AND MRF SIMILAR AT DAY 3...ECMWF BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVEMENT OF 5H TROF BY DAY 5. MRF SLOWEST AND
DEEPEST WITH 5H TROF OVER THE NW PACIFIC COAST...AND HAS SHOWN SOME
CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUN. FOLLOWING MRF...CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS S/W MOVES THROUGH. FLOW OVER NRN U.S.
THEN BECOMES ZONAL UNTIL 5H TROF DEVELOPS OVER PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY.
RIDGING OVER NRN PLAINS TO KEEP AREA WARM AND DRY TIL FRIDAY. MRF DOES
BRING S/W CLOSE TO REGION BY 0Z SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
FA. WILL MENTION CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES ON
FRIDAY. TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.
.FGF...NONE.
TURNER
FXUS63 KFGF 201529 nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
904 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
GSO 00Z SOUNDING VERIFIES HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF LOW-LEVELS WITH
ATMOSPHERE NEARLY SATURATED FROM SFC TO JUST OVER 700 MB. 21Z RUC
AND 18Z ETA INDICATE WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO CONTINUE...MAINLY
ACROSS ERN AND NRN SECTIONS OF CWA THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. FLOW BECOMES
NEUTRAL OR WEAK DOWNGLIDE TOWARD MORNING. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE OCCURRING IN NRN FOOTHILLS HAS MEASURED 0.01 AT HKY IN THE
LAST HOUR. MAY HAVE TO ADD SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE TO THE NRN AND ERN
TIER COUNTIES...DEPENDING ON TRENDS CLOSER TO ISSUANCE. I DONT
EXPECT A LOT OF COVERAGE...SINCE THE UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN. SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OR WEST OF AREA
OVERNIGHT...SO SEE NO OTHER MECHANISMS FOR LIFT. LOW TEMPS APPEAR ON
TRACK.
.GSP...NONE.
MOYER
FXUS62 KCAE 210047 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
843 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
21Z RUC2 INDICATES MOST PRECIP WILL FALL OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT BUT DOES
FCST THE H85 THETA RIDGE TO SHARPEN ALONG THE COAST. SMALL POPS ARE
IN ORDER WITH PATCHY MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE OCCURRED THIS EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE
ALONG THE COAST FOR A WHILE LONGER. WEAK LOW LVL FORCING IS SLOW TO
BUDGE FROM NE S CAROLINA AND PARTS OF S GEORGIA GIVEN COASTAL TROF
HOLDING PATTERN IN COMBO WITH WEDGE INLAND. LOW TEMPS FM 65-70 INLAND
AND LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
CWF...CSTL TROF CONTINUES TO CHG VERY LTL W/TIME. WINDS/SEAS
BEHAVING OUT THERE THIS EVE. WL CONT WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KT FOR SC
WATERS AND 3 FT SEAS. MAY BRING WIND DIRECTION AROUND TO N FOR GA
WATERS AS OBS ARE INDICATING...BUT KEEP 10-15 KT AND 3-4 FT SEAS. FOR
THE HARBOR...WL GO WITH N WINDS 10-15 KT. NO OTHER CHGS PLANNED.
.CHS...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
RVT/TJR
FXUS62 KCHS 201911 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
RUC SHOWS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CROSING GREAT LAKES INTO
THIS EVENING WHILE VORT IN TN GETS LEFT BEHIND IN STAGNANT FLOW.
ATLANTIC IMPULSES TO CONTINUE ROUNDING UPPER RIDGE OFF COAST
THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT NO UPPER IMPULSES CROSS OUR AREA TIL TUE
WHEN A WEAK VORT LOBE TRAVELS DOWN E COAST. SLOW MOVING SURFACE
RIDGE TO MAINTAIN HOLD ON AREA THROUGH PERIOD WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING. DOWNGLIDE FLOW ON
ISENTROPIC SURFACES SUGGESTS NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL AT LEAST TUE
WHEN WEAK UPGLIDE APPEARS MOUNTAINS. NGM DOES TURN LOW LEVEL WINDS
EACH NIGHT TO SE...RESULTING IN UPSLOPE FLOW...HOWEVER ETA
MAINTAINS NE WINDS. WILL LIMIT TUE POPS TO N NC MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPGLIDE BEST. LOOK AT EXTENDED SHOWS CONTINUATION OF CURRENT
PATTERN WITH MORE WAVES DEVELOPING ON COASTAL FRONT AND RIDGING
EXTENDING DOWN E COAST.
AVL 58/77/60/77 1-12
CLT 62/74/63/75 1-12
GSP 62/75/63/76 1-12
.GSP...NONE.
JAT
FXUS62 KGSP 201734 COR sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG, SC
133 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
RUC SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING THROUGH DAY IN NORTHEAST
FLOW...YET SHOWS MOISTURE DIVERGENCE MOVING INTO AREA FROM SW BY
LATE AFTERNOON. BREAKS NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY LEE OF MOUNTAINS
...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TN BORDER. WILL DELAY DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER I-77 E AND I-40 N...WHERE TEMPERATURES TO BE HELD BACK BY
CLOUDS...NE WIND AND SPRINKLES...ALTHOUGH BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON
MAY ALLOW WARMING TO NEAR FORECAST MAXIMUMS. ASSUMING FORECAST
MAXIMUMS ARE REACHED...MODIFIED GSO SOUNDING YIELDED CAPE OF 200.
UPDATE: VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FILED DEVELOPING IN
BREAKS LEE OF MOUNTAINS AS HEATING ACTS ON PERSISTANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WILL HANG ON TO CLOUDS BETWEEN MOUNTAINS AND I-77.
UPDATE II: CLOUDS HOLDING TEMPERATURES TO VERY SLOW GAINS. WILL
TRIM TEMPERATURES E OF MOUNTAINS...AND RAISE NEAR TN LINE WHERE
MID 70S ALREADY NOTED.
.GSP...NONE.
JAT
FXUS62 KGSP 201726 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1002 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
12Z CHS RAOB SHOWING CONVEC TEMP OF 75...HOWEVER MODIFYING SFC TEMP
TO 80 STILL ONLY GIVES CAPE OF APPROX 600...SO LITTLE ENERGY
AVAILABLE FOR SIG CONVECTION AND UPPER LEVELS STILL EXTREMELY DRY.
THEREFORE WILL DROP MENTION OF TSTM POSSIBLE. 9Z RUC CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIG LLVL CLOUDS OVER MOST OF CWA...ESPECIALLY N OF SAV RIVER...
THOUGHOUT TODAY WITH SFC TROF CONTINUING WESTWARD MVMNT ACROSS COAST
AND BRINGING SHOWERS CRNTLY OFFSHORE INLAND. THIS MVMNT/DVLPMNT
ALSO EVIDENT ON CHS RADAR. WL KEEP CRNT POPS AND TEMPS AS THEY ARE.
SIG FEATURE TONIGHT MAY BE VORT CNTR EVIDENT ON WV IMGRY OVR NE MS
ATTM RAPIDLY MVNG EWRD FASTER THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS...AT THIS RATE
WILL IMPACT SC BY TONIGHT.
CWF...SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP WITH BUOY 41004 AT 5 FT AND GRAYS REEF
AT 4 FT. PILOT BOAT IS REPORTING ONLY 2 FT. WILL LOWER SEAS
ACCORDINGLY. WILL CONTINUE TREND FOR WINDS SHIFTING TO E FOR ALL
WATERS AND LOWER SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FOR SC WATERS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
.CHS...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SLB/SLF
FXUS62 KGSP 201317 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
844 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER STABLE IN THE CWA WITH WEAK SHOTS OF
VORTICITY ENHANCING AREAS OF CLOUDS IN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. LIGHT EAST SURFACE FLOW WILL SOON TAPER OFF...AND USING THE
LATEST RUC AND MESO-ETA FORECASTED RH FIELDS...LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY. THEREFORE...WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE...MAY TWEAK A FEW MOUNTAIN ZONES FOR A
LARGER SPREAD.
DM
FXUS64 KOHX 210037 tn
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
833 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 1999
PW/S WERE ON THE RISE ACROSS THE TX GULF COAST. AFOS DERIVED PW/S AT
00Z WERE 2.2 AT CRP (UP 0.3 SINCE 12Z) AND 1.88 AT LCH (UP 0.6 SINCE
12Z). THIS TREND IMPLIES THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE TO THE WEST OF SETX
WAS SHIFTING TO THE EAST. A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IS THE MOISTURE TAP
FROM ADRIAN IN THE EAST PACIFIC WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP ELEVATE
LAYER MOISTURE. ACTIVITY ACROSS SETX HAS BEEN SCATTERED THIS
EVENING...YET WHERE IT HAS OCCURRED RAINFALL RATES HAVE APPROACHED 2
TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. SOME 3 HOUR TOTALS IN SOUTHERN POLK COUNTY WERE
NEAR 4 INCHES BETWEEN LIVINGSTON AND SEGNO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM. THAT
SAME SCENARIO WAS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY...NORTHERN
BRAZORIA...AND SOUTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY AT THIS HOUR.
WILL NEED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. STILL BELIEVE THAT WITH SUNSET
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA WILL DIMINISH. HOWEVER...WITH THE RUC BRINGING A SHORTWAVE INTO
SETX FROM THE WEST AND SHOWING THE THETA-E RIDGE PUSHING SLOWLY
EASTWARD...THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
PL-40
34
.HGX...NONE.
FXUS64 KHGX 210132 COR tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION - UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
959 AM MDT SUN JUN 20 1999
DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AN EARLY LOOK AT THE 12Z RUC..ETA
AND NGM MODELS INDICATE THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. KEPZ 88D RADAR INDICATES A BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM DEMING TO SOUTHEAST OF LAS
CRUCES SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH AT THIS TIME. TODAYS FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE REACHED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA..BUT WITH CLEARING NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH WILL NOT RECOMMEND CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
04
N
FXUS74 KFWD 201551 tx
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
325 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 1999
SHOWER ACTIVITY THE LAST 24 HOURS SHIFTED FROM OVER THE WATER AND
COASTAL COUNTIES TO FARTHER WEST DURING THE DAY. COVERAGE WAS HIT AND
MISS WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING ALMOST NOTHING AND OTHERS GETTING
INCHES. BRO RECEIVED 0.13 INCHES TODAY. THE 00Z SOUNDING WAS STILL
QUITE JUICY WITH 2.27 INCHES PWAT. THE LI WAS AROUND -5 BUT CAPE WAS
DOWN A BIT TO AROUND 1700 J/KG. MOST OF THE INSTABILITY WAS CONFINED
TO THE LAYER BELOW 700 MB. THUS WOULD EXPECT SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE. INDEED 88D SHOWS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL BLOWOFF
MOISTURE ADVECTS SOUTHEAST FROM MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. AN
INITIAL LOOK AT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE A SLOW DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEK BUT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK THAT
POPS ARE AGAIN DOWN TO AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AT LEAST LOOK TO CONTINUE SHOWERY. ANY FLASH FLOODING APPEARS
PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT. HOURLY TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED BELOW
FFG YET ISOLATED LARGER SHOWERS HAVE DUMPED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OVER
SMALLER AREAS. AN ATTENTIVE WEATHER WATCH IS ONGOING...WILL ALSO ISSUE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AGAIN THIS MORNING.
THE MODEL COMPARISON SHOWS THAT A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE
MODELS...THE ETA...PUSHES A FINGER OF VORTICITY DOWN FARTHER INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THAN THE NGM OR AVN. ACCORDING TO NCEP THE ETA TYPICALLY
DOES A BETTER JOB WITH CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTS. IT ALSO HAS THE
STRONGEST SUBTROPICAL JET PULLING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE INTO
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. ALSO FROM NCEP...A WELL DEFINED VORT TRAPPED
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FROM SOUTHERN NM EASTWARD IN WESTERN TX
HELPING TO TRIGGER MODERATE TO HEAVY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TX. IN THIS CASE...PW'S ARE ABOVE 2.0 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN TX SUGGESTING THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE THERE. UNQUOTE.
THE OTHER TWO MODELS HAVE GREATER VORTICITY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE RUC ALSO LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE...THERE
APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF INSTABILTY TO FUEL CONTINUED SHOWERS WHETHER
THEY DEVELOP OVERLAND OR JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE ONSHORE. BRO REMAINS
IN THE SPC GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
ON THE SURFACE...THE NE TO SW AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT KNIFES THROUGH
THE SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF WILL STICK AROUND LIKE AN OLD
FRIEND...SERVING TO KEEP THE WEAK TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE
BREEZE GOING DURING THE DAY. HUMIDITIES HAVE BEEN HIGH WITH THE
CURRENT STAGNANT AIR MASS. NIGHT TIME WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT TO
CALM BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT COOLED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MUCH FOG.
LRD DID PICK UP SOME EARLY MORNING FOG BRIEFLY YESTERDAY HOWEVER.
OFFSHORE WATERS REMAIN MUCH WARMER THAN THE DEWPOINT SO WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANY FOG TO FORM AND ADVECT INLAND EITHER.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY GOOD. WILL NOT NEED TO DEVIATE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODEL NUMBERS. WILL KEEP POPS UP BUT HINT AT A
SLIGHT DROPOFF. FEEL SKY COVER WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY SUNNY BUT
WILL WORD FORECAST TO INCLUDE PARTLY SUNNY WITH RAIN EVENTS.
EXTENDED (TUE THROUGH THU)...A SLOW DRYING TREND IS INDICATED ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN
UP AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS ONTO THE HEAT MORE TENACIOUSLY WITH LOWER
WINDS.
CWF...BUOY 020 WAS AT 16 KNOTS AT 200 AM WITH A SHOWER NEARBY AND THE
SWAPS MODEL SHOWS SEAS BUILDING A BIT TO 4-5 FEET BY TONIGHT. THE
MODELS SHOW THIS TO BE ON THE HIGH END FOR WINDS OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THUS WILL NOT NEED ANY ADVISORIES FOR NOW.
BRO BB 090/076 091/076 092 54423
MFE BB 093/076 094/076 095 54422
RGC BB 097/076 099/076 101 54422
SPI EE 088/076 088/076 088 54423
SYN...54/MESO...57
.BRO...NONE.
tx
UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH
1050 AM MDT SUN JUN 20 1999
SYNOPSIS...A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS UTAH
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH LATE MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A RISK OF LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE ALREADY OUT TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS. RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL NEVADA TO NORTHWEST UTAH. 12Z MODELS ANALYZE
A SIGNIFICANT VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...THIS FEATURE WAS
RESOLVED BY THE RUC OVERNIGHT BUT WAS NOT PRESENT IN EVENING MODEL
FIELDS. MODELS ALSO SHOW VORT CENTER SEEN WEST OF KLAX. NEVADA
VORT MAX DIFFICULT TO SEE IN WATER VAPOR DATA. MODELS MOVE THIS
FEATURE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY 06Z MONDAY PRODUCING WEAK DYNAMICS
OVER CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT MOVES BY. CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT PULLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE
WEST AND INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH AT THIS TIME. GOES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NOW UP TO NEARLY .9 INCHES NEAR LAKE POWELL. MAY NEED
TO UPDATE LATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HENRY MOUNTAINS ... SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
...POSSIBLY CASTLE VALLEY ZONES DUE TO VORT MAX AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
NORTH SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
MODELS CONSISTENT BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERN END OF DYNAMICS WITH THIS
FEATURE CLIP NORTHERN UTAH AT 00Z TUESDAY. GENERAL WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. ETA TIME VS.
HEIGHT DIAGRAMS SHOW WEAK DIFFERENTIAL VORT ADVECTION DYNAMICS FOR
KSLC MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AFTER 03Z TUESDAY.
RESPONSE TO THESE WEAK DYNAMICS SHOULD BE HEALTHY THIS TIME OF YEAR
DUE TO WARM AIRMASS AND LOW STATIC STABILITY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SO CHARACTER OF ANY
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE HIGH-BASED AND GUSTY IN
NATURE.
SLC 001 CDC 11- GIBSON
.SLC...NONE.
FXUS65 KSLC 200834 ut
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1000 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WITH DEEP MOISTURE SHOWN ON 12Z AREA
SOUNDINGS. SRLY OVERRUNNING FLOW ABOVE ABOUT 800 MBS. UPSLOPE FLOW
TO CONTINUE INTO TONITE...AND ALL MODELS- INCLUDING RUC KEEP LIGHT PCPN
GOING THRU AT LEAST TODAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. KRAX
LOOP SHOWS ANOTHER BATCH OF -RA MOVG UP THRU THE NW PIED OF NC
ATTM...AND THIS SHUD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED/A LITTLE HEAVIER WITH
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT THIS AFT- GOOD FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN OVER
MOST OF THE CWA ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL PUT FAIRLY
HIGH POPS INTO THE THOSE ZONES FOR THIS AFT. DECRSNG CHCS
WESTWARD...BUT STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR ALL BUT DOWNSLOPE AREAS
SUCH AS SMYTH/TAZEWELL AND PARTS OF MERCER/SUMMERS. S0...MAX TEMPS
WILL HAVE TO BE LOWERED AS WELL. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORT
WV/VORT MAX CONT TO DIG SEWD INTO MS THIS MORN...AND THE 00Z MODELS
DID A POOR JOB WITH THIS FEATURE. 12Z RUC KEEPS IT MORE INTACT AND
PROGRESSIVE...WHICH LOOKS BETTER. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE SFC
TROF OVER ERN NC AND KEEP A FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE FA
TONITE. CURRENT FCST HAS LIKELY POPS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WILL
PROB RAISE POPS IN GROUPS ON EITHER SIDE.
.RNK...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
JJ
FXUS61 KAKQ 201400 va
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 AM EDT MON JUN 21 1999
SOMPROMISE BETWEEN ETA/NGM. AT 50H TROF REMAINS ALONG THE OCASST AS
A COPLE OF WAVES MOVE THRU IT. RIDGE BUILDS TO WEST OVER OHIO VALEY
TUESDAY.
ISEEENTROPIC LIFT PLAYING WITH CLOUDS AGAIN. LOOKS SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY. THUS WILL GO WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY THEN PC WEST AFTERNOON AS
RUC HINTS AT 850 RODGE SHIFTING WEST A LITTLE. WILL LOWER POPS S
TODAAAY AS DYNAMICS WEAKER THIS RUN. TUESDAY EAST COAST TROF LIFTS
NORTH AND WEAK WEDGE LIKE HIGH WEAKENS. WILL AGAIN BE CLOUDS BUT
WITH LOSS OF SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. NOT A REALLY CLEAR SCENARION.
WILL RAISE POPS TUE VS MON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND
DYNAMICS IMPROVE.
TEMPSERATURES. MODELS NOT HANDLING WELL LAST FEW DAYS. WILL CONTINUE
TO UNDERCUT TODAY...MORE OS NORTH THAN SOUTH. WILL GO CLOSER TO
GUIDANCE TUESADY AS SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AND SLOW WARING TREND
CONTINUES AS WE RETURN TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE REGIEME.
ATL 81/64/84 0-1 AHN 78/65/84 0-1
RMG 84/58/85 0-1 MCN 84/63/86 0-1
.ATL...NONE
FXUS72 KFFC 210431 AMD ga
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
200 AM CDT MON JUN 21 1999
BEGINNING OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER BRINGS RETURN OF MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR CRL IL. FCST CHALLENGE...
PCPN CHANCES.
LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING INTO PAC NW WL BUILD RIDGE OVR PLAINS AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT IT EWRD DURING ERLY PART OF WEEK. A SURE SIGN THAT HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. UNDER UPPER RIDGE...NO DECENT
FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE HIGH PCPN CHANCES UNTIL MID-WEEK. ON
TUE...MODELS POINTING TOWARD TROF DEVELOPMENT IN PLAINS AS SRN AND NRN
STREAM SYSTEMS COMBINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME WITH
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE...WITH ETA MOST AGGRESSIVE AND AVN
SLOWEST AND WEAKEST. BELIEVE ETA IS OVERDONE AND WILL SIDE CLOSER TO
AVN SOLUTION AS THIS FEATURE WL BE SLOWER AND WEAKER AS IT DEVELOPS
INTO RIDGE.
A FEW SHORT-LIVED SHRA POPPED UP ACRS ILX CWA LATE THIS AFT. 00Z ILX
SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE RETURN UNDERWAY AND WL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH
PCPN DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECTING ALMOST IDENTICAL SITUATION THIS AFT
AND EVENING WITH PCPN TRENDS...BUT WITH BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE
...SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE. ETA...RUC AND MESOETA ALL INDICATING WEAK
FORCING IVOF IL THIS AFT WITH WEAK VORT EVIDENT. BEST LI/S W-NW IN
EXCESS OF -2 AND CAPES TO 1200 NEAR PIA BY 00Z. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING INCREASING POP TRENDS AND WL THEREFORE GO WITH 30 POPS CWA-WIDE
THIS AFT INTO EVE. THETA-E RIDGE/LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MCS DEVELOPMENT
STILL WELL WEST OF IL MON NIGHT...SO WL DRY OUT REMAINDER OF NIGHT.
WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY OF STRENGTH AND SPEED OF DEVELOPING TROF
MID-WEEK...WILL HOLD OFF INCREASING POPS UNTIL THIS IS BETTER RESOLVED.
LEANING TOWARD SLOWER AND WEAKER AVN KEEPS 30 POPS FOR TUE.
FAN/FWC TEMPS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND LOOK REASONABLE.
PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS...
SPI EE 085/067 087/068 086 81333
PIA EE 085/066 087/067 085 81333
DEC EE 083/066 087/067 087 81333
CMI EE 083/065 087/067 088 81333
MTO EE 084/067 088/068 088 81333
LWV EE 085/068 090/069 091 81333
PLAHMER
NOTE...BEGINNING 4 AM JULY 7...1999...THIS AREA FORECAST PRODUCT WILL
BE CHANGING FROM NWS PRODUCT ID CHIAFDSPI TO PRODUCT ID CHIAFDILX.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FORECAST INPUT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS.
FXUS63 KILX 201948 COR il
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
310 AM EST MON JUN 21 1999
QUIET WX WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THEY MOVE WEAK UPR TROUGH FM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE UPR RDG IS MOVD TO VCNTY
INDIANA BY 48 HOURS. ETA IS STRONGER THAN OTHER MODELS ON SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTHERN PLAINS BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER THIS WOULD NOT AFFECT US
UNTIL AFTER TUE.
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS RISE A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HOWEVER
THERE IS NO KICKER FOR PCPN AND CAPES ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 400 J/KG. FEEL THAT POPS OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT WOULD BE
REASONABLE FOR BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
IS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA.
MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND EFFECTS
ON TEMPS. SATELLITE AND WX DEPICTION SHOWS BKN TO OVC CLOUDS OVER
MOST OF INDIANA. CLD HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 5500 TO 10000 FT AND 06Z RUC
KEEPS LOCAL RH MAX AT 850-700 LAYERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
18Z. WILL KEEP CENTRAL SECTIONS MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY...BUT BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. FWC MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT WARM LAST FEW
DAYS EVEN IN AREAS WITH SOME SUNSHINE. WILL TAKE THE LOW END ESPCLY
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO MIN TEMPS.
.IND...NONE.
HENDRICKSON
FXUS63 KIWX 210554 in
UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH
1050 AM MDT SUN JUN 20 1999
SYNOPSIS...A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS UTAH
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF UTAH LATE MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A RISK OF LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE ALREADY OUT TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS. RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE PLAINS WHILE
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL NEVADA TO NORTHWEST UTAH. 12Z MODELS ANALYZE
A SIGNIFICANT VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...THIS FEATURE WAS
RESOLVED BY THE RUC OVERNIGHT BUT WAS NOT PRESENT IN EVENING MODEL
FIELDS. MODELS ALSO SHOW VORT CENTER SEEN WEST OF KLAX. NEVADA
VORT MAX DIFFICULT TO SEE IN WATER VAPOR DATA. MODELS MOVE THIS
FEATURE INTO WESTERN WYOMING BY 06Z MONDAY PRODUCING WEAK DYNAMICS
OVER CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT MOVES BY. CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT PULLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE
WEST AND INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH AT THIS TIME. GOES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NOW UP TO NEARLY .9 INCHES NEAR LAKE POWELL. MAY NEED
TO UPDATE LATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HENRY MOUNTAINS ... SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
...POSSIBLY CASTLE VALLEY ZONES DUE TO VORT MAX AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
NORTH SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
MODELS CONSISTENT BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERN END OF DYNAMICS WITH THIS
FEATURE CLIP NORTHERN UTAH AT 00Z TUESDAY. GENERAL WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. ETA TIME VS.
HEIGHT DIAGRAMS SHOW WEAK DIFFERENTIAL VORT ADVECTION DYNAMICS FOR
KSLC MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AFTER 03Z TUESDAY.
RESPONSE TO THESE WEAK DYNAMICS SHOULD BE HEALTHY THIS TIME OF YEAR
DUE TO WARM AIRMASS AND LOW STATIC STABILITY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SO CHARACTER OF ANY
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE HIGH-BASED AND GUSTY IN
NATURE.
SLC 001 CDC 11- GIBSON
.SLC...NONE.
ut
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1059 AM EDT MON JUN 21 1999
THE CURRENT RUC SEEMS TO FOCUS MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER CHANCE POPS SEEMS A GOOD CALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF MORNING OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.
SCOTT
FXUS62 KTAE 211430 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1025 AM EDT MON JUN 21 1999
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE APALACHEE BAY CONTINUE TO ERODE AT THIS TIME.
VORT MAX OVER GA/AL BORDER APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SE
TOWARD CWA. RUC AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS WANT TO SHEAR OUT THIS
FEATURE...WHICH CURRENT TRENDS DO NOT YET SUPPORT. 12Z TLH SOUNDING
NEARLY SATURATED BELOW 600 MB WITH WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL CAP.
ALTHOUGH CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX...RUC
PROGS LOWER LEVELS TO DRY TODAY...LIMITING INSTABILITY. MISSING
UPSTREAM SOUNDING AT JAX MAKES IT HARD TO CONFIRM WHETHER THIS IS AN
ACCURATE ASSESSMENT BY RUC. ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO PERSIST. AS
NOTED BY EARLIER AFDTLH...THIS IS A SYNOPTIC REGIME THAT FAVORS BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ALONG SW FACING COASTS...WITH LOWER POPS
INLAND. 12Z-12Z USER SELECTABLE PRECIP PRODUCT ON RADAR SHOWS THIS
WAS EXACTLY THE CASE YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT IT TO BE SIMILAR TODAY.
CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK...WITH NO CHANGES SUGGESTED.
TJT
FXUS62 KMLB 211405 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
850 AM EDT MON JUN 21 1999
ALL QUIET ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHEAST GULF ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SURFACE TROF THAT BOTH
SURFACE RUC AND HANDDRAWN ANALYSIS INDICTAES. ETA MODEL HINTS AT
THIS FEATURE BUT HAS IT FURTHER EAST...BUT IT DOES CONTINUE IN THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW SHEAR AXIS AT 500 MBS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MOVES IT LITTLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
BIG CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE POPS. MORNING SOUNDING AS USUAL IS
RATHER UNSTABLE AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WEAK CAP...IT WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH TO BREAK. PLENTY OF THE USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT SOME
DRYING BETWEEN 850 AND 500 MBS. MODIFIED SOUNDING CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS SHOW 3900 CAPE...-8 LIFTED INDEX BUT ONLY 21 FOR THE
K-INDEX. WIND CERTAINLY WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR TOWERING CUMULUS
LINE TO DEVELOP TODAY OVER OR JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
KEYS WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND. BUT WIND ALOFT WOULD TAKE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS ALSO TO THE NORTH. DID NOT HAVE MUCH
CONVECTION YESTERDAY AND WILL CONSIDER LOWERING POPS TO 20%
(ESPECIALLY WITH ONLY 21 K-INDEX AND ONLY BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
CONVECTION THE CUMULUS LINE).
ALTHOUGH FLOW IS SOUTHEAST UP TO 850 MBS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
ALOFT...IT IS WEAK...SO CONVECTION THAT FIRES ALONG CUBA THIS
AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY FIZZLE OUT BEFORE GETTING ACROSS THE STRAITS
THIS EVENING.
TEMPS STARTING OUT 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME
AND 850 MB TEMP IS 1.4 DEGREES CELCIUS HIGHER. SO NO PROBLEM
REACHING AT LEAST AS HIGH AS SUNDAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND ON SOUNDING AND VAD WIND PROFILE VERY SIMILAR
WITH SOUTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. MAY TWEAK WIND FORECAST IN
MARINE TO INCREASING TO 10 KTS WITH CURRENT 6 TO 9 KTS...OTHERWISE
LOOKS GOOD. WATERSPOUTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT WIND
FIELDS...TOWERING CUMULUS LINE AND GOOD MOISTURE.
.EYW...NONE
MOHLIN
FXUS62 KJAX 210737 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
940 AM CDT MON JUN 21 1999
THIS MORNINGS SHV SOUNDING LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE SUNDAYS...WITH ABOUT
85 DEGREES NEEDED TO BREAK CAP. EXTREME WESTERN MOST COUNTIES MAY BE
ONLY AREA RECEIVING MORE THAN ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION TODAY. LATEST RUC NOT SHOWING ANY PVA INTO AREA THROUGH
12 HOURS. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH ON GOING SHOWERS WEST OF CWA IS
ALSO HOLDING WEST OF AREA...SO UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 STILL LOOKS OK
ON HIGHS. WILL HAVE WRK ZONE IN FOR TEXAS COUNTIES ONLY ADJUSTING
POPS DOWNWARD FOR COUNTIES CLOSER TO LOUISIANA BORDER.
14
FXUS64 KLCH 211417 la
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
935 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 1999
H3 RAOBS AT 00Z INDICATE UPR LVL RDG AXIS OVR MN WITH TROF ALG W CST
AND OVR ERN GRT LKS. WV LOOP SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SUBSIDING AIRSTREAM
FM WRN ONTARIO INTO NRN GRT LKS ON E SIDE OF RDG AXIS DOWN ARND BASE
OF SHRTWV DROPPING ESEWD NR LK HURON. SFC CHART INDICATES RDG AXIS
UNDER CONFLUENCE/NVA E OF UPR RDG EXTENDING WWD FM HI CENTER E OF LK
HURON INTO CWA. SUBSIDENCE AS FCST BY MODELS IN ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR
DVGC HAS CLRD MOST CLD OUT OF CWA. 00Z SFC WNDS/DWPTS IN RDG AXIS
OVR CWA LGT/45 E-NR 55W. INTERACTION OF SHRTWVS LIFTING OUT OF WRN
TROF AND MSTR AXIS IN PLAINS CAUSING DVLPMNT OF CNVCTN TO W OF UPR
RDG AXIS. DEBRIS HI CLD FM ACTIVITY IN NW MN APRCHG WRN LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR OVRNGT ARE MIN TEMPS. 21Z RUC INDICATES H3
RDG AXIS TO REMAIN W OF CWA WITH UPR LVL CONFLUENCE/NVA CONTG THRU
09Z WHILE SFC RDG AXIS REMAINS OVR FA. SO XPCT NOTHING MORE THAN
DEBRIS HI CLD OVR MAINLY WRN ZNS. COMBINATION OF HI CLD...A BIT
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT/STRGR SLY BLYR WND AND HIER DWPTS WL HOLD MIN
TEMPS UP ACRS WRN ZNS. WL UPDATE THERE TO RAISE FCST TEMPS CLOSER TO
LAMP GUIDANCE NUMBERS...60 AT IWD. LO TEMPS WL FALL LWR OVR E WITH
DRIER AIR/WEAKER GRADIENT IN PLACE. MIN TEMPS FCST THERE LOOKS ON
TARGET.
.MQT..NONE.
KC
FXUS63 KAPX 202356 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1040 AM CDT MON JUN 21 1999
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE
THAT IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. SECOND SHORTWAVE DEPICTED TO FAR NORTH BY ETA THIS
MORNING...WITH RUC CLOSER. KMVX RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS RUC
SOLUTION WITH POSITION IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST ACROSS WESTERN CWA...AS IS OCCURRING...
THEN FURTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO WEAKEN
WITH TIME...BUT AIRMASS BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING TO THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME QUITE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.
WILL KEEP CURRENT TREND OF FORECAST GOING WITH SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION.
.DLH...NONE.
MELDE
FXUS63 KMPX 211539 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 1999
FCST PROBLEMS TO AGAIN BE PRECIP CHANCES/TIMING OVER NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOIST
LOW LAYERS AND ENOUGH SUNSHINE...AS WELL AS CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE
BREEZE. MSAS HAS LI'S BELOW -3 IN WESTERN THIRD. ALL MODELS HINTED AT
SOME DEVELOPMENT AT THIS AND AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHED. RUC WAS
THE ONLY MODEL TO REALLY PICK UP ON LOWER VORT IN NORTHEAST SD...SO
FOLLOWED IT FOR SHORTER TERM. ETA DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB ON NORTH ONE
INTO NORTHEAST ND...SO STUCK WITH ETA LATER ON. THIS ONE TO AFFECT
NRN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS CWA LATE TNGT AND ON MONDAY. DRIER AIR AND NVA TO BRING
DECREASING CLOUDS TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS LATER TOMORROW...AND
DIMINISH SHOWERS/CLOUDS EASTWARD ACROSS CWA MONDAY NIGHT. LOOKS
ACTIVE LATER TUESDAY AFTN AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MN...
AND THEN ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA DURING THE NIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP WARM UP LAKESIDE AREAS...
EXCEPT GNA.
GUIDANCE TEMPS FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR CWA...AND LOOK REASONABLE AS WELL.
.DLH...NONE.
TAP
mn
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
915 AM PDT MON JUN 21 1999
SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING WAS AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WIND. DESERT ROCK SOUNDING SHOWED 30KTS AT H7
AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR NW OVER
IT'S FAVORED AREA. ALL MODELS INTENSIFY SURFACE LOW IN THIS AREA
TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RUC SEEMS TO DEPICT THIS BEST
WITH WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN 25 AND 30KTS AND REASONABLY STRONG
SURFACE GRADIENT. THESE WINDS SHOULD MIX NICELY TO THE SURFACE AS
YESTERDAY WE MIXED UP TO 625MBS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE NEGATIVE WOULD BE
IF MORE CLOUDS MOVE DOWN AND INHIBIT HEATING SOME. WITH THE DRY FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS...LOW RH'S AND SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS REQUIRES RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR OUR FIRE WEATHER
PORTION OF ARIZONA (MOHAVE COUNTY).
OTHERWISE...WILL BEEF UP CLOUD WORDING EVEN FURTHER ACROSS FAR NWRN
ZONES. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP EYE ON APPROACHING THICKER HIGH CLOUDS FOR SRN ZONES AND SEE
IF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STRETCH AND THIN OR IF WE MIGHT NEED A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST (WHICH AGAIN MAY AFFECT THE WIND
FORECAST SLIGHTLY). UPDATES ALREADY OUT. SKRBAC
.LAS...NONE.
FXUS65 KLKN 211559 nv
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
920 AM EDT MON JUN 21 1999
KBGM 88D DOWN THIS MORNING FOR INSTALLATION OF A NEW UPS SYSTEM.
UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO WRN NY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL
BY 09Z RUC AND LAST NIGHTS 03Z ETA. BAND OF PRIMARILY AC TRACKED
ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING DROPPING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES INCLUDING SYR. THE RUC AND 03Z ETA INDICATE THAT AREAS
FROM THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES NORTHEAST TO THE ADIRONDACKS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL. THIS IS REINFORCED BY THIS
MORNINGS BUF SOUNDING WHICH WHEN MODIFIED FOR THE AFTERNOONS
EXPECTED TEMP/DP YIELDS AN LI OF -4 AND A CAPE OF A LITTLE OVER 800.
NOT STAGGERING NUMBERS...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING THE 30% POP
IN THE FORECAST FOR SYR NORTH AND EAST AS SOME ACTIVITY MAY
REDEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON.
COASTAL INVERTED TROF AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PULLING
OUT OF PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
.BGM...NONE.
WALDSTREICHER
FXUS61 KBUF 211321 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
955 AM EDT MON JUN 21 1999
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BLANKETS AREA AS DEEPER MOISTURE STREAMS NEWD OFF
COAST. WV SATPIX SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROF DRIVING INTO GA AS
PROGGED...AND LTG DATA SHOWS NEARLY NLY MOVEMEMT OF SHWRS/TSTMS OFF
SC COAST WHICH...IF CONTINUES...POSES A SLIGHT THREAT TO CAPE FEAR VCTY
THIS AFTN. 09Z RUC BEARS THIS OUT WITH LITTLE VORT LOBE AT 18Z. WILL
KEEP THREAT OF SHOWERS ALONG COAST THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE LOOKS OK.
CWF: LOOKS GOOD WITH LIGHT NORTH WIND...BUT WILL DROP SEAS TO 3 FT.
.ILM...NONE
MATHESON
FXUS62 KMHX 210713 nc
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1025 AM CDT MON JUN 21 1999
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS TSRA THREAT AND TEMPS. MCS OVR S
CENTRAL ND ASSOCIATED WITH WELL DIFINED VORT MAX FROM IR AND KMVX-88D
REFLECTIVITY LOOP CENTERED JUST SE OF DVL TRACKING ENE...WAA AND
MODERATE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. COLDEST
TOPS OF MCS OVR S CENTRAL ND GRADUALLY SHRINKING WITH STRONGEST CELLS
SW OF JMS IN ZONE OF GREATEST INSTABILITY. SFC MAP INDICATED SFC
BOUNDARY ALONG ND/SD BORDER SOUTH OF THIS AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
MCS GENERATED A LINE OF TSRA CURRENTLY FROM EXT SE ND INTO WEST
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MN. CELLS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING WITH AREA PUSHING INTO
LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MORE GENERAL RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA OVR SE ND.
FROM 12Z RUC VORT WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS E-NE. FROM CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
FAVORED AREA FOR CONTINUED PCPN LOOKS TO BE AHEAD AND SOUTH OF VORT
PATH WITH GENERAL WEAKENING AND MORE WIDELY SCT COVERAGE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN PTN OF FA FOR LATER DEVELOPMENT. AS FAR AS
TEMPS LOWEST/THICKEST CLD COVER OVR SE ND WITH GENERALLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLDS ELSEWHERE. CURRENT TEMPS AROUND 70 AND WITH CONTINUED WAA
WILL NOT TAKE ALOT OF SUN TO REACH FCST MAX TEMPS. AS S-W SHIFTS EAST
INCREASING SUBS SHOULD ALLOW PARTIAL SUN LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO NO BIG
CHANGES AS FAR AS TEMPS EXPECTED.
.FGF...NONE.
VOELKER
FXUS63 KBIS 210842 nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
853 AM EDT MON JUN 21 1999
AREA SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. 09Z RUC SHOWS
DOWNGLIDE AT 305K INCREASING FROM S THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BREAKS
ALREADY LEE OF MOUNTAINS...WITH MOUNTAINS PARTLY CLOUDY. WILL
REALIGN ZONES TO INDICATE BREAKS NC FOOTHILLS...AND REWORD TO
INDICATE DECREASING CLOUD TREND SC/GA THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE
DRIZZLE I-77 CORRIDOR WILL DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON AS DOWNGLIDE
BEGINS. WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE IN MOUNTAINS WHICH
WILL HAVE BENEFIT OF MORE SOLAR HEATING. KFFC MODIFIED SOUNDING
YIELDED CAPE OF 800 BUT WAS CAPPED. KGSO MUCH MORE STABLE AND HAD
STRONGER CAP.
.GSP...NONE.
JAT
FXUS62 KCHS 210731 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
900 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 1999
CURRENT SATELITTE AND 88D SHOW CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF ABERDEEN
COUNTY WARNING AREA. 00Z SOUNDING SHOW STRONG CAP AT 85H BUT
UNSTABLE ABOVE. RUC AND AVN LI'S HAVE CURRENT CONVETIVE ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR. SO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS
GOOD. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
.ABR...NONE.
KEEFE
FXUS63 KUNR 202103 sd
NORTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1048 AM CDT MON JUN 21 1999
MORNING SOUNDING HAS MAX TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 80S...CAPES NEAR
2400 J/KG AND PW/S OF 1.92 INCHES. LITTLE ISENTROPIC MOVEMENT
INDICATED FROM LAST NIGHTS ETA RUN...HOWEVER...WIDE SCALE SYNOPTIC
LIFT IS OCCURRING PER AREA RADARS. NEWEST RUC AND ETA RUNS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA...AND WITH SUCH AN UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE AIR MASS...FEEL
CONTINUING THE WATCH IS VALID. ALSO...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A
CONVERGENCE BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM A KGLS TO KSJT LINE.
UPDATED PACKAGE INCLUDES SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS CENTRAL AND A CHANGE
IN SKY CONDITIONS EAST. 75.
.FTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD NORTH TEXAS.
FXUS64 KSJT 211535 AMD tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
245 PM EDT MON JUN 21 1999
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX CONTINUES TO WORK OVER WRN
CWA. UPPER CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY AQQ SW INTO
GULF. EGLIN RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION OVER GULF EAST OF AQQ DOWNSTREAM
FROM SHEAR AXIS...AND TLH RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER SW GA. 15Z RUC ADVERTISES SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX TO DIVE SE THROUGH MOST OF OUR CWA TONIGHT
...WHICH WOULD MEAN A QUICK END TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING FOR ALL
BUT ERN ZONES.
MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT
PASSES OVER OUR CWA. THEY ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT KEEPING ELY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER OUR CWA TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THIS FLOW PROGGED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE WITH PRONOUNCED N-NW FLOW
ABOVE 500 MB AS MINOR UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE SETTLES IN UPSTREAM.
FOR THIS EVENING WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WHICH QUITE
LIKELY MAY BE REMOVED AFTER SUNSET. TUESDAY...WILL USE POPS SIMILAR
TO TODAY GIVEN A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC REGIME AND THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS. WEDNESDAY...SEA BREEZE CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS CHANCE
POPS FOR MOST OF FL BIG BEND ...BUT SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ADVERTISE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
...WILL UNDERCUT THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY.
TLH 72/89 71/90 2212
PFN 74/86 74/86 2312
DHN 70/88 69/90 1211
ABY 70/87 69/90 2212
VLD 71/89 70/90 2212
TJT
FXUS62 KMLB 211838 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
235 PM EDT MON JUN 21 1999
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE RUC MODEL SHOW THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
SHORT WAVE WHICH IS MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. RUC SHOW ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FWC POPS APPEAR TO BE TO HIGH SO 20
POPS ACROSS THE GEORGIA PORTION OF OUR CWA AND 30 TO 40 POPS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PORTION OF OUR CWA.
FOR THE LONGER TERM THE MODELS MOVES THE 5H TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND ANY UPPER SUPPORT IS SOUTH OF THE AREA SO SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. WOULD GO BELOW
FWC POPS AND RECOMMEND 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THE GEORGIA PORTION OF OUR
CWA AND 30 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PORTION OF OUR CWA FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AMG 69/86/71/87 2311
SSI 73/81/73/81 3333
JAX 71/83/71/86 3312
GNV 70/86/71/86 2423 33
BLS
FXUS62 KEYW 211816 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
215 PM EDT MON JUN 21 1999
TOWERING CUMULUS LINE RIGHT OVER THE KEYS STARTING TO FIRE SOME
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. ALSO HAVE A WEAK INVERTED TROF OVER THE
EXTREME LOWER KEYS ON SURFACE RUC AND HANDDRAWN ANALYSIS.
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING LINE OF CLOUDS OVER KEYS AND TROF IN
AREA WITH PLENTY OF CAPE AND LIFTED INDEX WILL SEE SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER KEYS INTO THIS EVENING.
IN THE BIG PICTURE...SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM EAST CENTRAL GULF
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. RIDGE ALOFT IN ATLANTIC
AND CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER TROF ACROSS SOUTHEAST STATES AND GULF.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED OUT OF CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE KEYS. ETA PICKS UP WELL ON SHEAR AXIS...BUT NO SO
WELL INITIALLY ON UPPER TROF. IT KEEPS SHEAR ZONE WELL OUT OF THE
AREA WHILE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE INTO AREA A LITTLE TO QUICKLY. NVA
REMAINS OVER KEYS TONIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME VERY SLIGHT PVA LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN.
ETA DEPICTS SURFACE TROF VERY WELL AT 18Z AND MAINTAINS WEAK
TROFINESS NEAR THE AREA THRU 48 HRS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OFF SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. WITH WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND
LIGHT WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL SEE AFTERNOON
TOWERING CUMULUS LINE THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
WATERSPOUTS.
MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH ACROSS THE AREA (RUNNING CLOSE TO 70%
MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY) AND MOISTURE AXIS DOES DEVELOP OVER AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION OR OMEGA THIS FORECAST WITH TOWERING CUMULUS LINE EACH DAY
WILL GO WITH SCATTERED DAYTIME POPS. WITH EASTERLY DEPTH THRU AT
LEAST 850 MBS WILL MAINTAIN WIDELY SCATTERED POPS AT NIGHT. FAN
GUIDANCE POPS LOOK WAY TOO HIGH WITH NUMEROUS POPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND WILL DISREGARD. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER QUITE HIGH ANY
CONVECTION WOULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
TEMP GUIDANCE ALMOST EXACT AND LOOKS GOOD.
LIGHT EAST OR EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IN MARINE AREA AT 10 KTS OR
LESS.
EYW 81/89 81/89 2323 15
.EYW...NONE
MOHLIN
FXUS62 KTBW 211730 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1059 AM EDT MON JUN 21 1999
THE CURRENT RUC SEEMS TO FOCUS MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER CHANCE POPS SEEMS A GOOD CALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF MORNING OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.
SCOTT
FXUS62 KTAE 211430 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 PM CDT MON JUN 21 1999
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER PAST 24 HRS HAS FUELED LARGE CU
FIELD OVER ALL OF CWA TODAY...WITH 88D EVEN SHOWING SCTRD LINE OF SHRA
DEVELOPING ACRS FAR SOUTHEAST IA WHERE TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO CONVECTIVE
VALUES...51 DBZ NOTED IN LAST SCAN BUT NO LIGHTNING YET. MSAS DATA
INDICATING ACTIVITY IN AREA OF BETTER TEMP ADVECTION...SFC BASED LI/S
OF -5 TO -6...AND EDGE OF SLIGHT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WEAK VORT NOTED
ON W/V LOOP AND ALSO ON 15Z RUC MAY ALSO BE PLAYING A FACTOR. WILL
MONITOR ACTIVITY FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH ISSUANCE TIME AND MAY
HAVE TO INTRODUCE SOME EVENING WORDING TO COVER SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
MSAS AND 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES MOST DPTS ACRS CWA IN MID 60S...WITH
A FEW 70S POPPING UP ACRS SOUTHEAST IA. MAIN 70 DEGREE SFC DPT/SFC
THETA-E AXIS EXTENDS ACRS EAST PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST SD. ONLY NOTICEABLE
SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS TROUGH ACRS WEST SD AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL NE.
MAIN QUESTION THIS PACKAGE IS PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INITIATED WELL AND HANDLE H5 FEATURES SIMILARLY
THROUGH 48 HRS...WITH STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING MESOSCALE
FEATURES. BEST MCS SPAWN PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO BE ACRS PORTIONS OF SD
AND ESPECIALLY ND TONIGHT...WITH EAST KS ALSO AT RISK. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PROPAGATE EAST BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF AREA OF CONCERN. 60 KT MID
LEVEL JET NOTED THIS MORNING ROUNDING BASE OF MAIN H5 NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE OVER WEST COAST INDICATES THIS FEATURE READY TO SHEAR OUT ACRS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MODELS PICK
UP ON THIS TREND. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS TO LIFT NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE...ALL MODELS/ESPECIALLY ETA AND NGM/ DEVELOP AND BRING BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF KS AND ACRS
CENTRAL AND EAST IA IN FORM OF A VORT CENTER RIDING ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF
WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. ETA MOST AGGRESSIVE WRAPPING THIS VORT UP
AND PUSHING IT INTO WEST IA BY 18Z TUESDAY...WITH AVN WEAKEST AND
FURTHER SOUTH. TIME SECTIONS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING ACRS CWA
AFTER 00Z WED COUPLED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND WILL HAVE TO UP ONGOING
POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE RIDDLED WITH DIURNAL
ACTIVITY AS WELL...SIMILAR TO TODAY...AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES
FROM NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY TO WEST MAY ALSO HELP. ETA BRINGS MARGINAL
CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA AND WEST CENTRAL
IA BY 00Z WED. AIRMASS TO REMAIN UNCAPPED WITH ETA/AVN H7 TEMPS AROUND
7 DEGREES C. STILL MAY UP POPS FOR MAINLY TUES AFTERNOON BEFORE MAIN
ACTIVITY OCCURS LATER TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SOME NICE
PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER OVER EAST IA BY 06Z WED WITH DECENT H85-H7
UVV/S AND SFC-H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FLUX COUPLED OVER EAST IA. ETA
MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH 40 KT LLJ MAX PUNCHING INTO EAST IA AROUND
SAME TIME PERIOD...BUT FEEL ENOUGH IS THERE FOR SOME HEFTY STORMS.
BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO HANG ACRS WEST IA ON WED WITH ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES...WILL LEAVE PRECIP CHANCES RIDE. AS FORTEMPS...FAN AND
FWC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. INCREASED AMBIENT MOISTURE...CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT/DEBRIS...AND PRECIP WILL ALL ACT TO TEMPER WARMTH. OVER
NIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN MILD DUE TO SAME FACTORS.
...EXTENDED...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE MAINLY DRY AS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
CUTS OFF AND FORMS REX BLOCK OVER GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN GULF
STATES. MOST PRECIP STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH
MRF WHO IS STRONGER WITH THIS CUT OFF AND SUBSEQUENT BLOCK...PHASES
VIGOROUS NORTH STREAM WAVE WITH CUT OFF LOW AND BRINGS PRECIP NORTH INTO
CWA ON SAT. EUROPEAN LEAVES WEAKER SOUTH STREAM H5 LOW MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN MRF...AND KEEPS US DRY SAT. MAY LEAN TOWARD EUROPEAN
SOLUTION FOR NOW...AND SEE HOW NEXT MRF RUN HANDLES WEEKEND CUT OFF
LOW.
.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
HLADIK
FXUS63 KDMX 211635 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1134 AM CDT MON JUN 21 1999
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTN CONVECTIVE TRENDS. 15Z SFC ANLYS PLACES
TROF ALG KSUX-KCNC-KIRK LN AND HAS BEEN CREEPING SLOWLY NWD THIS
MRNG. MSAS MSTR CNVGNC AXIS IN SIMILAR AREA AS XPCD AND MAY BE
FOCUS FOR DVLPMT LATER TDA. DWPNTS ALREADY POOLING ARND 70F INVOF
OF TROF WITH 15Z LAPS ANLYS SHOWING NIL CIN AND CAPES ARND 1500
J/KG. PROFILERS ALSO HINT AT WEAK WRM ADVCTN IN THIS AREA. THUS WL
ADD MENTION OF WDLY SCT TSTMS DVLPG ACRS WRN AND SRN SXNS OF FA.
VISIBLE STLT IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ELEVATED OUTFLOW FM DSIPTG SIOUXLAND
MCS JUST PASSING THRU KDNS/KCIN AND ALMOST TO KADU. CNVGNC ASSOCD
WITH THIS FEATURE AND SLOW MOVG TROF SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE WDLY
SCT TSTMS WITH CAP ALL BUT GONE AND CAPES HEADING TWRD 2000-3000
J/KG DRNG PEAK HEATING OF AFTN JUDGING FM MODIFIED SOUNDINGS. 15Z
RUC SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL IN QPF FIELDS AND WEAK SFC THETA-E CVNGNC
ACRS SWRN THIRD OF FA THRU 00Z. SVR WX THREAT FAIRLY LOW WITH NIL
WIND SHEAR AND WET BULB ZEROS FAIRLY HIGH. COULD SEE BRIEF HVY
RAINS HWVR.
GOING TEMP AND WND FCSTS SEEM OK JUDGING FM 12Z RAOBS WITH SLGT WRM
ADVCTN AND 16Z SLA PROFILER AND CURRENT OBS.
.DSM...NONE
SMALL
FXUS63 KDMX 210822 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
201 PM MDT (301 PM CDT) MON JUN 21 1999
...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP...
ETA HAS BEEN DOING WELL THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH REGARD TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION. NGM HOWEVER IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RUC WITH NEXT SYSTEM COMING ASHORE AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN MOST VORT MAX.
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ETA/AVN STRONGER
THAN THE ETA. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH BUT I WILL
PUT IN A BUFFER CHANCE ALONG OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES. TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THAT IT HAS THE LAST 4 DAYS...OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG EAST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER AS ETA BOUNDARY LAYER RH IS 90 TO 100 PERCENT. ON
TUESDAY...HIGH 850 MOISTURE AND THETA E RIDGE COVER MOST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MOST
OF THE ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY AT
700MB. HOWEVER...TRI-STATE AREA IS IN LEFT FRONT QUAD OF 250 JET.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA SUGGEST NOT MUCH OF A CAP WITH GOOD
OMEGA SOUTH OF THE NEBRASKA BORDER. ALTHOUGH 3RD PERIOD POPS ARE
LOW...FWC 12 HOUR TRW GUIDANCE GIVING 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF TRW WITH
40 TO 60 PERCENT SEVERE WITHIN 60 MILES OF FWC POINTS. WILL GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. WITH THIS MUCH JUICE AND PLENTY OF WARM
AIR...THE APPROACHING FRONT AND JET STREAK SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK
THINGS OFF.
FRONT APPEARS TO MAKE IT THROUGH NORTHERN CWA LINGERING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL. 850 MOISTURE REMAINS PREVELANT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH BY EVENING AND SHOULD AGAIN
INITIATE TRW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. MOS POPS AGAIN PRETTY LOW BUT 12
HOUR TRW GUIDANCE PRETTY HIGH. WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.
FWC/ETA 2M TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EACHOTHER SO WILL NOT
DEVIATE MUCH OVER WEST AND CENTRAL CWA. HOWEVER...FWC STILL HAVING
PROBLEMS RESOVLVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN CWA. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED...DONT EXPECT ANY
DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE RESOLVING TEMPS. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FAR
EASTERN ZONES 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS. MINS LOOK OK.
IN THE EXTENDED...MRF SHOWING SOME SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...700 MB INDICATING SOME ENERGY TO PASS THROUGH JUST ABOUT
EACH DAY. DESPITE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ATMOSPERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED. WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 90S...IT WILL FEEL RATHER MUGGY.
.GLD...NONE.
THEDE
FXUS63 KICT 211939 ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
317 PM CDT MON JUN 21 1999
FORECAST FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT...THEN
FOCUS SHIFTS TO APPROACHING WAVE AND COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT AVN SLOWER WITH COLD FRONT.
ETA/S INITIAL VORT POSITION IN NORTH DAKOTA WAS TO FAR NORTH COMPARED
TO RUC AND SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY...BUT FOLLOWED ETA ANYWAY
WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO VORTICITY FIELD. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY
MODELS TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THIS VORT TO BE FOCUS
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.5
INCHES THROUGH PERIOD AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN LOWER 60S IN WESTERN
MINNESOTA CWA ATTM. VORT LOBE WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE TONIGHT AND
CAUSE SOME PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. CURRENT CONVECTION IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST SHOULD AFFECT SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA CWA. WILL LEAVE NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DRY BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH CLOSELY.
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ALSO MODELS PICK UP ON ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. ONLY CHANCY POPS IN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
COORD WITH MPX GRB.
.DLH...NONE.
MELDE
FXUS63 KMPX 212001 mn
FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 PM CDT MON JUN 21 1999
.SYNOPSIS...PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE
NATION...WHICH BROUGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE REGION. THE AIRMASS WAS GENERALLY STABLE AND DRY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH CAPES OF AROUND 600 AND -2 LIFTED INDEX IN NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA.
<<
.FORECAST...LOOKING AT THE UPPER PROGS. IN THE SHORTRANGE FOR THIS EVENING
THE RUC MODEL SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH SOME MOISTURE APPROACHING
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR THIS EVENING. SO WILL PUT ISOLATED EVENING
POPS THERE. THE MODELS WERE GENERALLY SIMILAR THROUGH 48 HOURS...AS
A TROF PUSHES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY
MORNING(AVN 72 HOURS). SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES...TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. LIFTED INDEXES WILL INCREASE TO -7 TO -8 ON WEDNESDAY
WITH TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 40. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW VERTICAL
VELOCITIES PICKING UP IN THE NORTH HALF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 72 HOURS IT WILL
BE UP IN THE OHIO VALLEY. ALSO THE 200 MB JET WILL CROSS MISSISSIPPI
WITH THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STATE ON THE LEFT FRONT QUAD. SHORTRANGE
ISENTROPIC MODELS SHOW THAT LIFTING WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO WILL PUT SCATTERED POPS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MADE SMALL CHANGES TO MOS POPS AND
TEMPS.
<<
.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE MRF SHOWS THE REGION UNDER THE AXIS OF A TROF THAT WILL FORM A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY. ON THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP THE RICH GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. A BOUNDARY
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION MAY AID IN PROVIDING LIFT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.
<<
.QPF DISCUSSION: LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
NEXT 24 HOURS. WARMFRONT MOVING NWD OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE ISOLD TO
WDLY SCT CONVECTION BY TUE AFTN. HOWEVER...BASIN AVERAGES SHOULD
REMAIN LOW. WILL FOLLOW NCEP FORECASTS FOR ZERO AVERAGES THROUGH 00Z
WED.
.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
17
FXUS74 KJAN 210821 ms
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
915 AM PDT MON JUN 21 1999
SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING WAS AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WIND. DESERT ROCK SOUNDING SHOWED 30KTS AT H7
AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR NW OVER
IT'S FAVORED AREA. ALL MODELS INTENSIFY SURFACE LOW IN THIS AREA
TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RUC SEEMS TO DEPICT THIS BEST
WITH WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN 25 AND 30KTS AND REASONABLY STRONG
SURFACE GRADIENT. THESE WINDS SHOULD MIX NICELY TO THE SURFACE AS
YESTERDAY WE MIXED UP TO 625MBS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE NEGATIVE WOULD BE
IF MORE CLOUDS MOVE DOWN AND INHIBIT HEATING SOME. WITH THE DRY FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS...LOW RH'S AND SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS REQUIRES RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR OUR FIRE WEATHER
PORTION OF ARIZONA (MOHAVE COUNTY).
OTHERWISE...WILL BEEF UP CLOUD WORDING EVEN FURTHER ACROSS FAR NWRN
ZONES. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP EYE ON APPROACHING THICKER HIGH CLOUDS FOR SRN ZONES AND SEE
IF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STRETCH AND THIN OR IF WE MIGHT NEED A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST (WHICH AGAIN MAY AFFECT THE WIND
FORECAST SLIGHTLY). UPDATES ALREADY OUT. SKRBAC
.LAS...NONE.
FXUS65 KLKN 211559 nv
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
230 PM CDT MON JUN 21 1999
...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...
WILL BE BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING SVR WEATHER. ALL MODELS SIMILAR AT 5H AND
SFC...BUT 15Z RUC BEST OVERALL WITH HANDLING OF VORT MAX OVER ERN ND.
ETA CLOSEST TO RUC...AND SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN OTHERS AT THE SFC...SO
WILL FOLLOW ETA THIS PACKAGE.
.SHORT TERM...MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER FAR SRN FA THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BEST MOISTURE AND 850 TO 500 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AS DEPICTED BY ETA. ALTHOUGH ETA SHOWS CAPES ON THE
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WARMING AT 7H AS SHOWN ON U/A
ANALYSIS AND ETA MODEL SHOULD STABILIZE ATMOSPHERE OVER ALL BUT EXTREME
SOUTHEAST FA. WILL MENTION EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THERE. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND VORT MAX TO SPREAD OVER FA OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
CLOUDS. WARM SRLY FLOW TO CONTINUE...HOLDING OVERNIGHT LOWS UP WITH FWC
GUIDANCE ACCEPTABLE.
ETA DOES BRING IN DECENT VORT MAX INTO SC CANADA BY 24 HRS...AND HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE THE PAST TWO RUNS. Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ENTERS FAR WESTERN FA BY 12Z...SO WILL INCLUDE CHC TRW LATE
IN DVL AREA.
.LONG TERM...MAIN S/W TO PUSH ACROSS FA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. PLENTY OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AVAILABLE...AND WILL
GO HIGHER THAN FWC POPS FOR ALL OF FA. PRECIP TO END OVER ND ZONES AND
PORTIONS OF RRV BY LATE AFTERNOON WHILE LINGERING OVER MN ZONES INTO
THE EVENING. WAA CONTINUING AHEAD OF FRONT EARLY ON WITH WARMEST TEMPS
EXPECTED OVER SE FA AS FRONT GETS THERE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
SUBSIDENCE DIVERGENCE OF Q OVER FA MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP FA DRY.
.EXTENDED...FOLLOWING MRF...RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER NRN PLAINS WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. NEXT WEAK S/W TO LIFT INTO FA FRIDAY WITH MRF SHOWING
CONSISTENCY WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. MAIN ACTIVITY TO BE ON
SATURDAY WITH NEXT S/W ENTERING INTO REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
NEAR NORMALS SATURDAY.
.FGF...NONE.
TURNER
FXUS63 KFGF 211532 nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
125 PM EDT MON JUN 21 1999
15Z RUC NOT SHOWING THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE THAT 09Z RUC DID
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIMITS UPGLIDE TO AREA E OF I-77.
SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER AREA THROUGH DAY 2 AND
POSSIBLY INTO DAY 5. NGM BRINGS WEAK IMPULSE ACROSS AREA BY LATE
TUE NIGHT. TIME SECTIONS FROM MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTING WITH ONLY WEAK OMEGA...BUT DIFFER ON LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH NGM VEERING TO SE TONIGHT AND ETA HOLDING ON TO NE FLOW UNTIL
TUE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW WEAK DOWNGLIDE TONIGHT ON 300-305K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES...AND EXPECT LIMITED DECREASE IN CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE. PARTLY CLOUDY TO HOLD FOR TUE...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF FAR E. NGM BRINGS S FLOW UPGLIDE INTO AREA FROM W TUE NIGHT...
EARLIER THAN ETA/AVN WHICH HAVE WEAK UPGLIDE TO W WED MORNING.
EXPECT MORE CLOUDS W LATE IN PACKAGE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION POPS
WITH SUCH FLIMSY EVIDENCE OF LIFT.
AVL 58/79/60/80 0-12
CLT 62/80/63/83 00-1
GSP 63/81/64/84 0-12
.GSP...NONE.
JAT
FXUS62 KGSP 211725 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1045 AM CDT MON JUN 21 1999
EFFICIENT TSTMS PERSISTING IN THE YKN TO SUX AREA WITH VIS STLT
SHOWING GOOD BOUNDARY SETTING UP ACROSS THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDER FM
SUX TO FAR WRN CWA. RUC CONTINUES TO HINT AT SLGHT CAPPING TO TAKE
PLACE TDY WHICH COULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. HOWEVER
WITH CONVERGENCE ZONES PRESENT IN SRN CWA AND THE FACT WE HAVE TSTMS
IN THE CWA NOW....WL NOT RULE OUT SLGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN NRN HALF OF
CWA. HAVE MADE UPDATES AND NOWCAST FOR SRN AND WRN CWA ALREADY...AND
EXPECT BY NOON TO UPDATE REST OF CWA TO INCREASE CLD CVR AND AT
SLGHT CHC OF PCPN.
ALTHOUGH SOME ARGUMENT FOR A SLGHT RISK OF SVR WX THROUGH NOON DUE
TO THE PROGGED HIGH CAPES...WITH CAP AND CIN PRESENT CURRENT
THINKING WL BE FOR JUST ISOLATED POSSIBILITIES. FOR 11AM SWO
PURPOSES...WL ONLY MENTION NEAR SVR SIGNIFICANT WX.
.FSD...NONE
BR
FXUS63 KABR 211516 sd
NORTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1135 AM CDT MON JUN 21 1999
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LOCAL RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...WITH SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER
06Z. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
1048 AM CDT MON JUN 21 1999
MORNING SOUNDING HAS MAX TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 80S...CAPES NEAR
2400 J/KG AND PW/S OF 1.92 INCHES. LITTLE ISENTROPIC MOVEMENT
INDICATED FROM LAST NIGHTS ETA RUN...HOWEVER...WIDE SCALE SYNOPTIC
LIFT IS OCCURRING PER AREA RADARS. NEWEST RUC AND ETA RUNS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA...AND WITH SUCH AN UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE AIR MASS...FEEL
CONTINUING THE WATCH IS VALID. ALSO...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A
CONVERGENCE BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM A KGLS TO KSJT LINE.
UPDATED PACKAGE INCLUDES SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS CENTRAL AND A CHANGE
IN SKY CONDITIONS EAST. 75.
.FTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON WESTERN THIRD NORTH TEXAS.
FXUS74 KLUB 211615 tx
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON
230 PM PDT MON JUN 21 1999
SATELLITE PIX INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST WITH
TROUGH AXIS AS WEAK LOW LVL CAA MOVES ACROSS CWA. KOTX 88D INDICATING
JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
OROGRAPICS BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN MODELS
IN THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN...BUT ETA DOES HAVE AN EDGE
IN LOCATION OF QPF AND PROGRESSION ALONG WITH THE RUC. DEBATING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ID ZNS 1/4 THIS EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY VERY
WEAK AND DON'T EXPECT ACTIVITY TO LAST MUCH BEYOND MIDNIGHT. IF WINDS
STAY LIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS AS EXPECTED...WOULDN'T RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG BY DAYBREAK. JET STREAM ALOFT RETREATS NWD INTO
BC AND WEAKENS THROUGH 60 HRS ALLOWING FLAT RIDGE/SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TO
BUILD ACROSS E WA/N ID THROUGH WED. THIS PATTERN TO RESULT IN DRIER/
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TUES AND WED. MID/HIGH LVL MOISTURE IN
ZONAL FLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPE HELPING
AREAS OUT WEST SEE MORE INSOLATION AND WARMER TEMPS THAN IN THE EAST.
NEXT SYSTEM ON TAP FOR THURS/FRI. OTHERWISE...NEW RIVER FORECASTS
INDICATE NO HYDRO CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. EJM
.EXTENDED...ONCE AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE SUBJECTED TO A
COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD. ALL MODELS CONSISTENT ON DROPPING A
SIGNIFICANT LOW SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL COOLING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH 500MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT BELOW -20 ON FRIDAY...FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME THUNDER. BEST DYNAMICS COME TO FRUITION FRIDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WITH LACK OF INSOLATION...THUNDER THREAT MAY NOT BE
ALL THAT STRONG. BY SATURDAY...AREA LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH
ANOTHER LOW DROPPING TO JUST OFF THE WA/OR COASTLINE WITH OTHER TROF
WELL EAST OF AREA BY THAT TIME. GIVEN POSITION OF OFFSHORE TROF...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD BE OVER FORECAST AREA BY THAT TIME...FOR
BEST CHANCE OF DRY WEATHER IN EXTENDED PERIOD.
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...
GEG 050/072/052/079 0000
CQV 052/076/051/082 1000
S86 049/070/048/078 2000
COE 051/073/051/080 0000
WWP 047/069/048/076 2000
LWS 056/076/054/082 0000
MOS 051/071/051/078
EAT 053/077/056/082 0000
.GEG...NONE
FXUS66 KOTX 211708 wa