000
FXUS04 KWBC 070820
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
319 AM EST SAT FEB 07 2009


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 07/1200 UTC THRU FEB 10/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

SOUTHERN CA INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST...

WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE FAILS TO ADVERTISE ANY HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE FLUX VALUES OR PWS...CURRENT WV IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THAT THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTY CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LACKS A DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONNECTION.  THEREFORE...EXPECT AREAL AVGS ACROSS SRN CA TO REMAIN
GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HRS.  IN THE FACE OF
DEEP SWLY INFLOW...ISOLD HEAVIER AMTS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ALONG
THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS NEAR THE COAST.  AS SHRTWV ENERGY
DIGGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TRANSLATES THRU THE BASE OF
THE TROF...THE MEAN CENTER AND AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE ADV IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS INTERIOR SRN CA INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES LATER TODAY INTO EARLY SUN.  AN INCREASE IN H85-H7 MOISTURE
FLUX ANOMALIES AND PWS ACROSS BAJA CA INTO AZ SUGGEST THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL TAP SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOSITURE LATE IN THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER AGAIN WIDESPREAD HVY AMTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  AMTS
OF A HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
INTO SRN NV.  WITH THE MODEL MASS FIELDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU
THE DAY 1 PERIOD...THE HPC FORECAST FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND.

NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/OH VLY/NORTHEAST...

THE LEADING SHRTWV TO EJECT OUT OF THE MEAN WRN TROF IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ITS E-NELY TRACK FROM THE UPR MS VLY THRU THE GREAT
LAKES INTO SERN CAN...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A NRN STREAM SHRTWV
SWEEPING ACROSS S CTRL CAN TO THE GREAT LAKES.   ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY LIGHT PCPN...WITH
AMTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NRN NEW ENG.  ADDITIONAL LGT AMTS
SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE OH VLY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE INITIAL SYSTEM ADVANCES THRU THE REGION.

DAY 2 AND DAY3...

...CONCERNING THE EJECTION OF THE CLOSED UPPER LO FM THE
SOUTHWEST...

MASS FIELD DIFFERENCES ARE NOT SGFNT THRU DAY2 HANDLING THE
EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STRONG PAC SHRTWV
TROF TROF DIGGING SEWD TO A PSN ALONG THE WEST COAST BY SUNDAY
EVNG.  WHILE HAVING DIFFERENCES WITH DETAILS..NCEP AND NON-NCEP
MODEL QPFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND IN GNRL USED THE GFS MASS
FIELD DETAILS FOR QPF PLACEMENT FM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE PLAINS
THRU DAY 2.  MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DVLPMNT OF SHWRS
OVR THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVNG WHERE INCRSG PWS WILL
BE TAPPED BY STG DYNAMIC LIFT AS HGT FALLS AND STG UPPER LVL
DIVERGENCE CONTRIBUTE TO THE LIFT.

ON DAY3...MOST MODELS ARE IN GNRL AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF A
SWATH OF PCPN FM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD THRU THE MS/OH VLYS TO THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE HI PWS CHANNELING NWD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
FRONTAL ZONE ASOCTD WITH THE LIFTING OUT UPPER TROF WILL SUPPORT
SHWRS.  HOWEVER..SGFNT DIFFERENCES BTWN MODEL SOLUTIONS WAS
EVIDENT OVR THE NCNTRL U.S. WITH THE ECMWF  AND CMC MODELS BEING
FASTER WITH THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER TROF RESULTING IN A FASTER
EWD PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN OVR THE NRN PLAINS AS COMPARED TO THE
NCEP MODELS.  WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE..OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE
QPF LEANING A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF..BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
VERY HI.  BASICALLY...IF ONE TAKES THE TRACK OF THE PRIMARY VORT
WITH THIS TROF AS DEFINED BY THE GFS...IT WOULD ARGUE FOR A SWATH
OF PCPN CLOSE TO WHERE THE ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL OCCUR.  HOWEVER
AT THE SAME TIME..CANNOT TOTALLY IGNORE THE GFS AT THIS TIME
RANGE..HENCE THE REASON FOR THE COMPROMISE.

...CONCERNING THE TROF DIGGING TO THE WEST COAST BY MONDAY MRNG...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM THRU THE DAY2 PD AND
AS A RESULT THEIR QPFS  WERE VERY SIMILAR OVR WRN OR/CA.  THE GFS
AND ECMWF WERE VERY SIMILAR AND ALSO HAD GOOD CONTINUITY FM THEIR
PREVIOUS RESPECTIVE MODEL RUNS.  BY DAY3...THE GFS WAS THE
SLIGHTLY FASTER OF THE MODELS WITH THE EWD ADVANCE THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER..DESPITE THIS DIFFERENCE..THE MODEL QPFS REMAINED IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT INTRODUCING MDT TO LCLY HVY PCPN TO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WHILE MAINTAINING SHWRS OVR CNTRL AND SRN CA EARLY
IN THE PD.  BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ALSO AGREED WITH THE FCST OF
WIDESPREAD SHWRS OVR THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A
STG DEFORMATION AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THAT AT REGION.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 502666 498656 496652 487637 482636 478635 474632 469631
      464630 461631 455633 451636 437658 433668 428682 427689
      428694 431700 434702 438704 443704 448705 448708 446711
      441720 436727 432730 433734 431738 429743 427751 428757
      429764 427769 424774 419777 409779 401783 392789 385794
      382798 380803 378807 377822 376834 375846 374870 374897
      373903 373910 371923 370927 367927 364926 359933 354941
      352946 353950 356951 359949 362946 366940 369942 370944
      372951 375957 378958 382957 385953 387948 391937 395927
      397916 398910 398902 399890 401883 404880 415877 416870
      418864 420861 426858 437856 443858 447860 451863 453868
      457883 458889 458897 459908 460919 471944 473948 477950
      480947 483941 485935 486920 488906 492907 496911 501916
      505915 509911 511904 512898 510889 508878 506870 505865
      504859 506853 507839 503831 500822 497817 495812 494806
      492795 492781 492765 493752 493744 495738 504711 505706
      505699 506694 505686 502666
 0.01 518987 516971 512962 509959 505960 498964 491971 484979
      480986 477996 475008 473012 470017 461034 460038 460045
      462051 465052 470051 472049 476046 479043 490032 501028
      503026 508022 512015 516007 518992 518987
 0.01 452076 450074 449072 447071 444070 441070 440072 441074
      443076 444077 447078 450080 452076
 0.01 428060 426056 423053 420049 416047 399053 395057 392062
      387062 378061 374059 369058 367061 367064 367070 366075
      363079 360080 355079 349075 345074 339073 333073 330075
      327077 324079 320085 316087 311085 302084 293083 288082
      283083 277085 272092 269101 268106 270111 275117 277119
      283120 289120 292122 294125 292129 285131 278135 276138
      276143 279150 284156 291161 304171 310175 317180 324184
      329189 332196 339204 344210 350214 356220 360224 363225
      368227 372227 374226 375220 375217 372213 365207 360200
      359195 363195 370197 376203 384210 388212 393212 400209
      403206 406199 407192 406186 403184 399185 395186 391185
      389180 388176 389170 391168 399170 409174 415176 420174
      420169 419165 420160 422150 424144 423136 414125 417121
      418116 414107 412097 409091 407091 404093 400099 397097
      395094 396091 400083 405076 414072 417068 419068 422069
      425066 428060
 0.01 405068 404064 404061 404060 403061 401062 400064 400068
      401071 404069 405068
 0.01 306014 306007 305001 303998 302992 301988 298984 295986
      292990 290993 289999 289006 292011 295014 298017 300018
      303017 306014
 0.01 252817 253814 253811 252808 250806 248806 246807 245811
      245813 245814 246817 246820 248821 250820 252817 252817
 0.25 386153 389149 388146 385141 380133 377129 372127 364125
      351110 347104 343096 341092 338090 335091 333102 326107
      323109 319108 316104 313101 311097 307095 298093 288094
      285095 283100 284106 287106 294107 301111 309117 314123
      319142 324148 321151 317151 306151 302152 299155 300158
      303163 310169 326178 334183 337191 342198 345202 349202
      350200 349188 350182 355180 365185 373188 378188 380184
      381173 382159 386153
 0.50 376173 377166 376163 373154 373148 371145 364139 359134
      354127 349113 346109 342106 340105 338109 336117 334122
      332125 329133 324138 331142 336146 340154 345160 350160
      353163 359167 372177 376173
 0.50 348196 347193 346192 344191 344192 344193 345196 346198
      348196
 0.50 331169 330165 325162 322160 317157 314156 309154 304155
      304158 306161 308164 312166 316169 321171 324172 327172
      331169
 1.00 361153 360152 357151 355150 352150 349151 348151 349152
      351153 354155 357155 360154 361153
 1.00 346130 345130 344130 345131 346130

24HR QP VT 09/12Z
 0.01 486674 484668 481664 474662 467661 460657 453654 447655
      443655 439661 436669 433676 432680 435686 440689 444690
      449689 451690 452693 448701 443705 439711 436719 430724
      426727 424730 425733 424738 421742 418750 415758 412763
      407766 402761 399763 398767 398776 396780 393783 380794
      367807 361812 358819 360891 359911 360921 362928 367936
      371936 373933 375925 376916 380879 381870 382862 385853
      386845 387836 388829 390827 395821 400812 407798 411790
      414787 419784 427781 433782 438776 448773 450775 452780
      454785 457788 460789 464787 471782 475772 477762 479754
      480741 481721 482711 482703 481699 482692 485685 486674
 0.01 539212 530196 527191 523187 522187 517191 516195 515204
      515209 512213 509213 503211 496204 489202 481201 477203
      472204 463207 458204 457200 458194 461190 465185 470175
      472161 472154 471149 468145 464143 460144 458149 460159
      454167 447172 441170 438166 431164 423158 423151 421146
      419142 414139 410137 411134 417134 420136 422137 424135
      430128 435121 437119 442119 448118 450116 452113 451108
      449103 447094 445090 442087 439088 435092 428085 424084
      424086 423092 415099 415091 414084 417081 425078 430076
      434078 437076 441075 443073 443070 439063 432058 428055
      426051 428048 431048 442046 452043 461043 465044 470044
      479042 495029 499026 502022 504016 505011 505004 504997
      500987 496979 491971 484963 478957 472951 466941 461933
      455925 450923 445926 439934 437938 437943 435947 435953
      433964 428967 423968 415965 411973 403973 395971 390962
      384958 367951 361948 356946 352946 348946 343947 336950
      329950 323949 307945 289940 285941 283945 283950 285955
      288963 295967 302970 310971 311975 308978 304985 299995
      296003 295009 296014 292021 289029 287036 288043 291050
      289057 288064 287070 287077 286083 285086 280093 279100
      282105 284107 287110 292111 298113 304120 309126 316131
      324136 329137 334136 342140 349144 353150 353161 353162
      349162 341158 337157 334160 326156 323155 320157 317160
      316166 318171 321174 326179 329182 330187 333195 337204
      340210 347216 351222 348238 357245 364247 382252 405259
      425265 444265 464270 484277 488279 492284 500289 502293
      507293 513290 522263 521260 520257 519254 518251 517248
      516247 515243 515238 518235 521236 523237 526238 527237
      530236
 0.25 513276 515269 515262 512254 508245 505237 501234 500234
      497236 500246 498251 494251 490251 488252 488256 489265
      495273 502277 509279 513276
 0.25 480002 479995 473986 469981 462976 455973 450979 445985
      438990 436996 433005 431010 427011 421008 415012 412014
      411019 408020 407016 404014 400015 396016 396011 398008
      401001 399996 387990 381987 375982 371977 365972 354964
      349961 344960 340961 335964 329968 325973 320979 317985
      313992 308005 309017 304033 305038 311042 315042 322039
      335038 343039 350041 356046 358048 359053 358061 356065
      358069 363072 367075 369079 372085 376090 380092 384092
      391089 397086 403081 407075 410072 410068 407064 402062
      398061 389061 384056 381049 380046 382045 391044 401045
      409043 415039 428029 438020 452019 471016 475013 478009
      480002
 0.25 439247 440243 439239 435236 431232 427227 419220 419214
      415208 412204 407206 403205 398201 389195 386192 381189
      376185 370183 363182 357183 354187 358191 366198 375205
      383211 393218 400224 399228 394230 390233 390236 390239
      392243 395246 402249 408251 429252 436250 439247
 0.25 419115 414113 412114 409110 407106 407099 405098 403102
      400102 398103 394108 391111 389116 394118 400118 402122
      406121 411119 416118 419115
 0.25 375228 374224 373220 372218 370216 366218 365214 364212
      362211 359211 356211 355212 355213 356216 358218 359220
      360221 363223 365225 367228 369230 370230 372231 373231
      375228
 0.25 378144 380142 380138 379134 378128 376124 372123 369121
      364120 360120 355120 351113 349110 347104 345096 342088
      338082 333079 329081 326088 330095 332099 332102 333108
      335112 340118 346123 351122 354124 356128 361135 367139
      372144 378144
 0.25 373047 372047 369046 366046 363047 364050 366050 369049
      372047 373047
 0.25 347192 347189 346185 345183 345182 345178 345175 344172
      344171 342167 339167 338170 338172 338174 336177 337179
      338180 340184 341188 342191 342192 344195 347192
 0.50 422242 424238 422236 420233 417232 412231 410226 409226
      409230 408234 405233 401235 399238 401241 404240 409244
      415244 418244 422242
 0.50 411218 406213 402208 396203 389199 384195 378192 371188
      368191 370196 375201 380206 385209 393214 398218 407220
      411218
 0.50 416029 414028 410028 403029 391024 387024 380024 368022
      357019 349018 347020 347024 350029 354033 359034 366034
      373034 380035 392036 399036 406034 412033 416029
 0.50 380075 379072 378070 375068 373072 373075 375078 378078
      380075
 0.50 371000 370994 369991 364983 358979 353974 347968 341966
      334969 329975 320987 317995 314003 314017 311025 311030
      315031 320031 324029 331025 341014 347009 349006 353002
      367003 371000
 1.00 399212 397209 395207 394206 392205 389204 387201 386200
      384199 381198 378197 377199 378199 380201 383203 386205
      389206 391207 394210 396212 399212
 1.00 338987 337986 334987 333984 331984 329988 328988 326992
      325995 327996 328995 329994 332992 333991 334987 337987
      338987

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 522265 523261 521254 514242 509228 502214 496209 490207
      479205 472205 466204 461206 456210 452211 449213 446212
      442213 439214 429216 421221 416220 416216 420210 424205
      425198 427191 431188 432188 434193 435201 438206 439208
      443210 447210 449208 454201 461190 465189 470185 474182
      478177 483175 490176 495177 498173 499168 499163 494152
      487142 484138 479134 476133 470134 463132 459130 453128
      449126 455118 458106 458104 454098 444092 441088 445084
      450080 450076 445064 444060 446057 450056 456059 462059
      475058 484054 494045 500037 515021 518016 520009 521002
      523991 524987 523977 522967 519960 512948 508939 506929
      504914 503903 503896 503888 502881 500875 497868 490859
      482855 478851 474844 469834 456812 443794 435785 427780
      422779 418779 413780 401788 387806 381816 377826 359867
      351883 339900 335905 329910 325912 313917 308920 300921
      296921 290922 288927 290932 294943 296950 294956 290964
      287968 288972 295976 295980 293985 292989 291996 294997
      297996 301994 323989 331984 338981 341979 354975 362974
      370973 377972 384973 387973 391976 395980 396983 396987
      390998 389002 391009 397016 401018 408018 416022 423031
      426034 429039 428049 427053 425054 415058 407053 399047
      394044 386043 374042 368042 364045 357050 347054 341056
      335056 336060 339064 338069 332070 328072 324075 318083
      311088 308091 306095 303105 304117 305123 307126 312129
      318130 325130 330134 330138 324141 317146 312153 309160
      308164 307171 308176 313184 321189 330194 337201 340209
      345219 350228 357237 362242 371250 383258 397262 406264
      412265 418265 439263 456260 474254 477255 480256 483260
      487265 489269 492271 495275 501279 504281 508279 509276
      510269 510263 512263 515265 522265
 0.01 504253 503251 501247 499242 499241 496240 493239 492239
      492244 495249 497250 497251 500252 503253 504253
 0.01 433084 433080 430075 427071 424068 420068 418075 416080
      415084 415088 417095 421097 423095 423092 424084 430084
      433084
 0.01 401223 398219 390216 382213 377207 374202 369196 365195
      363196 366201 370208 373213 375217 378218 384218 389220
      398223 401223
 0.01 407091 407087 407086 406087 404090 403091 404092 407091
      407091
 0.01 356820 355812 353811 351813 348816 346820 344825 342829
      341833 340837 342840 346840 351838 354835 355829 355823
      356820
 0.25 504999 505992 505983 502977 499976 496974 493971 494955
      491940 489926 488913 486899 482886 477879 472876 464872
      459868 455866 452867 450868 447874 448884 447895 445903
      443911 440916 436918 432920 426919 421919 419923 419934
      418943 418950 418957 419966 417979 415986 411993 410996
      410001 412003 416004 425005 432005 441005 448007 451011
      453014 453021 454024 456026 466022 474023 484023 489021
      493019 498013 504999
 0.25 454239 452238 449237 446237 448238 451239 454239 454239
 0.25 443849 444845 442841 438835 431830 425822 422817 418815
      407813 398816 392823 386833 378851 374860 369870 364879
      358887 347902 334917 322931 316939 312947 312953 314959
      316962 315967 315974 315977 318978 330975 337972 346966
      365956 373953 377949 376941 374938 373934 374932 376927
      380923 397911 399908 403902 403898 402894 408875 412870
      416866 425859 431856 437855 442853 443849
 0.25 450163 450159 450157 448154 447153 444152 441151 438152
      437153 437156 438159 439161 440162 443163 446165 449166
      450163
 0.25 426163 428160 427156 424151 423140 422130 419119 416115
      412111 409108 407107 404108 400109 397112 396117 398121
      397127 399130 401129 405132 387133 384131 380126 379123
      375122 371121 368118 363116 358114 354111 350104 349100
      350096 352092 355090 356086 353082 350079 345082 330081
      328084 328092 327095 324099 318103 315106 313111 316114
      320116 325115 331116 334119 336123 339130 341134 346137
      352137 360132 365132 370142 374148 379151 383152 392154
      400161 407165 412167 417167 426164 426163
 0.25 384083 383076 379068 375064 369060 364063 361065 360068
      364072 367074 368079 370086 372090 374093 378098 379095
      380090 384084 384083
 0.25 361220 363217 361213 359209 357206 354206 352208 352211
      353212 355215 355216 357219 359220 360221 361220
 0.25 343181 345178 345175 344170 342164 339162 334160 328159
      323159 320161 316164 317167 319171 324174 326175 332177
      337178 342181 343181
 0.50 496996 495991 494988 489985 485984 481980 478974 477965
      479952 479944 477934 476925 475923 472922 468922 464924
      456933 444954 440956 436960 431972 429977 426982 424988
      424994 427997 432997 445998 449999 454001 462009 471014
      477014 484012 488010 493005 496996
 0.50 382892 380887 376886 373880 370879 366882 363886 358893
      347909 336922 330930 326938 325958 327968 332969 338966
      346962 352957 358949 363941 363937 365932 369924 376916
      381908 380901 382892
 0.50 375079 376075 375074 375075 375079 375079
 0.50 359121 354115 349110 346103 344096 341090 335085 332088
      332092 331097 329100 328104 329107 332112 337117 341123
      345127 347126 351125 356124 359121
 0.50 341174 342171 341169 340167 339166 336164 333164 331163
      328162 325162 322164 321164 322168 324170 327171 330172
      332172 335172 338173 339174 341175 341174
 1.00 346113 346112 344109 343107 342106 341102 341100 339102
      339106 340109 343111 345113 346114 346113

$$