JANUARY, 1905. MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW. 11
The little town of Trapp, at the immediate foot of the Blue
Ridge on the Loudoun County (east) side, and about one and
one-third miles from the Weather Bureau station, is over 1000
feet lower, its elevation above sea level being less than 700 feet.
On the west side of the mountain the fall is less abrupt. Ac-
cording to the U. 8. Geological Survey contour map the dis-
tance from the Mount Weather station to tlie nearest point on
the Shenandoah River is about three miles, and the elevation
of the river is between 300 and 400 feet. More exact determina-
tions in the Shenandoah Valley will no doubt be macle later.
TRE PROPOSED COMPETITION IN FORECASTING AT LIEGE.
UNIYERSITY OF CLERRIONT,
~Trauslativii.]
METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATORY OF PVY DE DOME,
CLERMONT-FEHRAND, J a i i trnriy 27, 1%)5.
Prof. WILLW L. MOORE,
Chit‘ C. S. lf’enther Brirmu, W[ishiiigto)i, D. (7.
SIR: You have been pleased to cominunicate to me the letter
written by you on January 7, last, to Mr. Jacobs, president of
the Belgian Astronomical Society’, in reply to the letter in which
he invited you to become a member of an international jury
charged with judging in a competition in weather forecasting
which the Belgian Astronomical Society proposes to organize.
In accordance with your desire, I hasten to give on the snb-
ject the views which you do me t,he honor to request.
First of all, I had nothing to do with the editing of the
document, or rather the proposed document, n liich was sent
to us, ancl in forwarding my acceptance to Mr. Jacobs I inade
some express reservations and indicated especially that, in my
opinion, the jury, when definitely constituted, should alone be
qualified to decide upon the programme. I even made my
acceptance conditional upon that of Air. Teisserenc cle Bort;
convinced as I was in advance that if that eminent scientist
consented to make one of the jury. his influence would be suf-
ficient to have erased from the proposed programme whatever
might be unscientific and give rise to well founded opposition.
I had not been consulted either as to my possible participa-
tion in the jury, and I should not have failed to protest-as
you have done-if they hacl given my name as a member of
the jury in a printed document destined to be given to the
public; but I understood that it was only a proposed pro-
gramme, and that in making use of my name in a printed proof
I was left perfectly free to accept or to decline the invitation,
and it was the same with all the others whose names appeared
with mine.
Having given these preliminary explanations, it is very easy
for me to tell you how heartily I a m in accord with yoii as to
the injury that is done to science by these fantastic prophets
who, without any knowledge of the general movements of the
atmosphere, forecast the coming weather somewhat after the
manner of those who tell fortunes with cards, and whose
blunders do not succeed in exhausting the credulity of the
the public. It is necessary at any cost to, prevent these from
taking any part in a serious competition; and it was, in my
opinion, very unfortunate that to the provision for a competition
in forecasting for a proximate period they should have added a
provision for forecasts several weeks in advance. It is evident
that in the present state of science no such prediction can be
made scientifically. My intention was to ask, in conjunction
with Mr. Teisserenc de Bort, with whose ideas on these sub-
jects I am well acquainted, the absolute elimination of this
part of the programme, or rather this side issue ” added to
the programme. I thought, however, that this side of the
question could be more advantageously discussed when the
iurv hacl been constituted. .I -.I
Again, I entirely agree with your view and those of Mr.
See Monthly Weather Review, November, 1904, p. 533.
Pernter when you say that it would be impossible to accept
results, even if they should be excellent in themselves and
verified by experience later, without knowing the methods by
which they hare been obtained ; and I am firmly convinced that
no prize should be adjudged to a metorologist for forecasts
for very short periods in advance, unless he explains the details
of his iiiethods in such a way that afterwards any one else may
be able to make use of it just as well as he.
The poiut upon which I take the liberty of differing with
you, however, is in regard to the utility of a practical test by
the author himself of a method of short-range forecasting.
This question was discussed at the thirty-second meeting of the
French Association for the Advancement of Science, held at
Angers in 1908; the seventh section (Meteorology and Physics
of the Globe), of which I had the honor to be president, form-
ulated the following resolution:
‘* The seventh section, iiiipressecl by apparently proper methods for invreaSing tlie accuracy of weather preilictionq for short periods in ad-
vance, expresses the wish t h a t the administration may give t o the
author5 every facility for applying their niethods under the most favor-
al)le couditivn~, and by appropriate tests, suc-h as a cornpetition, should
allow conqietpnt scieutists to pronuunve as t o the efficacy of these
lllrt hod& ”
This resolution was adopted unanimously.
I can not but think that, in the present state of science, the
prediction for the immediate future of depressions and centers
of high pressure over Europe might be made with more pre-
cision than is ordinarily the case. Without entering into per-
sonal details, I may say that a t this Congress of Angers the
Section of RIeteorology of the French Association was deeply
impressed with the accuracy of certain forecasts applied to
past conditions, and the French Association for the Advance-
ment of Science, without itself taking the initiative for a com-
petition, was won over to the idea that if those who think they
can improve the methods of forecasting were put to the test
ancl forced to apply their methods to a real prediction it would
furnish the means of distinguishing that which is real pro-
gress from that which is only a repetition of what has been
already done.
We do not lack persons who have general and very rational
rules for predictions-to which indeed no objection can be
macle-but who, when charged with applying these rules, do
not succeed in producing anything more than indications that
are too vague to be of any real use. I f those who think they
can do better agree to submit to a severe test, and to explain
afterwards their method of procedure, so that, by following
them. others can derive profit from it, I can see in this only an
excellent opportunity to separate what is serious and worthy
to be called scientific from what is not. We must only take
precautions. It will be especially necessary to abandon all
idea of long-range forecasts, and carefully avoid anything that
can furnish grouncls for the criticisms-often so well founded-
formulated by yourself and Air. Pernter; but I think that the
competition in itself, particularly if scientists of the standing
of Mr. Teisserenc de Bort watch over i t and exercise a control
over its acts, would give rise to an exchange of ideas and
discussions that would conduce to progress.
Believe me, clear sir, that this difference of opinion as to the
utility of a coqwtitio)i for.foi*ecasts.for iwy short periods does not
prevent me from recognizing the correctness of your remarks,
and I beg you to accept the assurance of my highest regard.
(Signed) BERNARD BRUNHES,
Dzrwtor (f tirr Observatory.
SOLAR HALO OF FEBRUARY 3, 1905, AT WASHING-
Ry ERII, REX MILLER, Weather Bureau.
TON, D. C.
A solar halo observed a t Washington, D. O., on February 3,
190.5, deserves mention on account of its permanence and
brilliant coloration ; and especially because i t was accompanied