####018004833#### FXUS63 KAPX 122015 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 315 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009 .SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 315 PM/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT... PERSISTING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND PROVIDING IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK...PROVIDING BOUTS OF CLOUDY SKIES WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE SEASONABLE. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. && .SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 315 PM/...TONIGHT PRIMARY FCST CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAINS LINGERING LIGHT SNOW...THE CONSEQUENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THRU THE CWA. EARLIER FLARE UP OF SNOW ACRS THE REGION TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF UPR WAVE/SUPPORT ALOFT...WITH RADAR RETURNS SLOWLY WANING BUT BRIEFLY BECOMING ENHANCED VIA UPSLOPE REGIME INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL... ANTICIPATE AN AXIS OF LINGERING LIGHT SNOW TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO ONTARIO. LAKE INFLUENCE PRETTY MUCH MINIMAL GIVEN DELTA T'S ONLY PUSHING 10C AT BEST...BUT PERHAPS A SMALL COMPONENT AS H9 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -11C AS COLDER AIR BLEEDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF HEAVIER ALIGNMENT OF SNOW EXISTS VIA PERSISTENT SFC-900MB CONVERGENCE INTO THE HIGH SPOTS COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF CHANNELED VORT/DEFORMATION AXIS ALOFT...BUT PROBABLY NOTHING WORSE THAN A LOCALIZED INCH. OTHERWISE...A DWINDLING TREND IN SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THRU THE NIGHT AS VEERING SFC-800MB FLOW ALLOWS MUCH DRIER AIR TO ENTER THE PICTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S SOUTH TO SINGLE DIGITS NORTH LOOK JUST FINE. HYDROLOGY...WILL GO AHEAD AND CAN THE FLOOD WATCH ACRS NORTHEAST LOWER AS LATEST HYDROGRAPHS SHOW MOST LEVELS STEADYING OUT AND ANY THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING RAPIDLY DECLINING. LAWRENCE && .LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 315 PM/...FRIDAY AND BEYOND FRIDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE WITH FLURRY THEME ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS TROUGH DISSIPATION OCCURS. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM BOTH THE NAM/GFS ARE NOW PUSHING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT AXIS SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA AND POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY TERRAIN. ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF NOT SHOWING THIS AS MUCH...FOCUSING INSTEAD MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID...THINK THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN COULD PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER. THIS IS NOTHING MORE THAN A NUISANCE EVENT BUT STILL LIKELY WORTHY OF A LOW POP. LATER PERIODS (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BENIGN LATE WINTER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH MODELS REFUSING TO BUDGE FROM MAINTENANCE OF SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK ACROSS THE CONUS. SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT POSSIBILITIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL PATTERN. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH LOWS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES. 12Z RUNS NOW SHOWING POSSIBLE LARGER STORM POTENTIAL WITH PHASING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSELY GROUPED ON SHOWING PCPN OVER THE AREA. WAY TOO FAR OUT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS MODELS ARE NOTORIOUSLY UNRELIABLE WITH PHASING SYSTEMS IN THE LONGER RANGE. WILL PAINT GENERIC 30 POPS OVER THE AREA FOR THE MIDWEEK AND LET LATER MODEL RUNS REFINE THE DETAILS. JK && .AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1239 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE EVENING HOURS UNDER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED THRU LATE AFTN UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BLEEDS INTO THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE. LAWRENCE && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ####018002125#### FXUS64 KOUN 122018 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 218 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009 .DISCUSSION... CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO PARTS OF NW/NC OKLAHOMA TODAY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FRIDAY... A DRYLINE WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VERY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE FA BY 9 PM FRIDAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE WAVE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 44 69 29 46 / 0 10 0 10 HOBART OK 42 66 25 46 / 10 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 46 72 32 53 / 10 0 10 10 GAGE OK 33 49 20 43 / 10 10 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 45 63 26 43 / 10 10 0 10 DURANT OK 49 67 37 53 / 10 10 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR OKZ021>023-033>038-044. TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>090. && $$ SIX ####018005565#### FXUS61 KCLE 122018 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 318 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH THE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN WEAKENING ON FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO KENTUCKY EARLY ON SATURDAY...MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SEVERAL STATIONS AROUND THE REGION STILL HAVING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT WILL EXTEND WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7PM. TROUGH LINGERING BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE AND MARGINALLY COLD AIR AT 8H...ABOUT -10C...WILL CAUSE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY LOW INVERSION AND SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL BUT STILL CARRIED LOCALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...DIMINISHING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES THROUGH KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. NAM CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER NORTH WITH LOW MOVING IT THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN OHIO. GFS ECMWF AND SHREF HAVE A WEAKER LOW AND TRACK IT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. WENT ALONG WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. STILL WENT WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND WEST WITH SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL. WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK BELIEVE PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN START TO BUILD BACK IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST WITH A NWLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND 8H TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY SETTING UP A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. COLD POOL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE BITTERLY COLD LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST MONTH AND A HALF. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL SUPPORT THESE TEMPERATURES AS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK TROUGHS WILL SLIDE BY ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT DEVELOP THE DEEP DIGGING EAST COAST TROUGH UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN STILL REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLEARING AREA ROTATED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING HOURS BUT WAS QUICKLY FILLING BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS CLOUDS ROTATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. CLOUD DECK ALTERNATING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ERIE WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL DURING THE NIGHT DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 6 MILES. VFR RETURNS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR ERIE VISIBILITIES. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WESTERLY DIRECTION. .OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING VFR WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO SATURDAY BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY LATE MONDAY FOR WIDESPREAD VFR. && .MARINE... PER COORDINATION WITH BUF HAVE DECIDED TO LET GALE WARNING GO AS IS. WINDS APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING A COUPLE KNOTS PER HOUR AND THIS PACE SHOULD PICK UP AFTER SUNSET. BY MORNING WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH LIGHT W TO NW FLOW. THE FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND THEN CHANGE LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE FLOW WILL BECOME SW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>014- 017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ061-142>149- 162>169. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RANDEL NEAR TERM...RANDEL SHORT TERM...RANDEL LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...LOMBARDY MARINE...KUBINA