Three Articles on College Graduates: Outlook to 2005, The Class of '90 in 1991, Earnings and Jobs of All Graduates U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Reprint from the Summer 1994 issue of the Occupational Outlook Quarterly The College Labor Market: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow College is one of America's major investments. Each year, the States, the Federal Government, employers, schools, parents, and students spend more than $140 billion on higher education. So it's no wonder that many people want to know what happens to college graduates in the labor market. The three following articles address different sides of that subject. First, Kristina Shelley discusses the outlook for 1992-2005 in "More Job Openings Even More New Entrants; The outlook for College Graduates, 1992-2005." Next, Gary Steinberg reviews data from the National Center for Education Statistics on the employment of the class of 1990 in June of 1991. Finally, "Job Market Profile of College Graduates in 1992: A Focus on Earnings and Jobs," Thomas Amirault discusses the earnings and employment of all college graduates in the labor force during 1992. These articles show that college still provides substantial benefits to graduates who work in occupations that generally require a college degree but that competition for such jobs is keen. As was the case throughout the past decade, students attending college must be advised that simply earning a degree does not guarantee either high earnings or employment in a job that requires a degree. It is not possible to say for sure which college graduates will land jobs that require a college education or have high earnings. However, the data show what has happened in the past. For Example, Gary Steinberg notes that unemployment rates ranged from 1.0 percent for majors in the health professions to 8.2 percent for history majors and that engineering and health profession majors are more likely to end up in jobs that require a degree than other graduates. And Thomas Amirault reports that individuals with graduate degrees - usually taking at least 2 full years of full time study beyond a bachelor's degree - are less likely to be employed in jobs that do not require college than are those with just a bachelor's degree. One may also surmise that grade point average, the reputation of the college or university attended, job search skills, and innate talents and informally acquired skills all play a role in job success. More Job Openings, Even More New Entrants The Outlook for College Graduates, 1992-2005 by Kristina J Shelley The employment outlook for college graduates between 1992 and 2005 is like a weather forecast in the midst of the summer doldrums: Tomorrow will be a rerun of today, or a little worse. Although almost all college graduates will find employment and the great majority will be employed in jobs that require a college degree, a substantial proportion of graduates will not find jobs that require a college education. Recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projections indicate that about three fourths of the college graduates who enter the labor force between 1992 and 2005 can expect to find college level jobs. This projection points toward a job market that is slightly worse than that between 1984 (the earliest year for which comparable data are available) and 1992, when about 80 percent of the college graduates entering the labor force found jobs that require college. As in the earlier period, wide variations are expected in the types of jobs graduates get and the income they earn, even among jobs defined as college level. These findings may appear to conflict with commonly held views about how much better college graduates are doing in the job market than those with less education. On average, graduates earn more and are less likely to be unemployed than nongraduates. In 1992, median earnings for college graduates were $37,000 a year, compared with $21,000 for high school graduates. The average unemployment rate for college graduates was 3 percent that year, compared with 8 percent for high school graduates. Yet, even for the 1984-92 period, BLS data indicate that a college degree does not guarantee success in the labor market. Background Expectations concerning the college labor market are based on two different projections: Those for the economy as a whole and those for the number of degrees to be granted. BLS develops three series of economic projects: High, moderate, and low. They show different ranges of economic growth, labor force growth, industry employment, and occupational employment between 1992 and 2005. This analysis uses the moderate series. (These projections appear in the fall 1993 issue of the Occupational Outlook Quarterly and, with greater detail, in the November 1993 Monthly Labor Review; The American Work Force: 1992- 2005, BLS Bulletin 2452, includes the Review articles and additional data.) Projections of the number of degrees to be awarded are made by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), U.S. Department of Education. NCES also develops low, middle, and high projections, the most recent oaf which are published in Projections of Education Statistics to 2004, NCES Bulletin 93-256. This analysis uses the middle projections. Chart 1 College graduates in the labor force, 1992 (Thousands) Professional Specialty (12,115) Executive, administrative, and managerial ( 6,906) Technologists and technicians ( 1,169) Marketing and sales workers ( 3,381) Administrative support ( 2,516) Craft, operative, and laborer ( 1,449) Service ( 1,062) Agricultural ( 273) Unemployed ( 996) Pie chart [Graphic Omitted] College Level Jobs Once projections have been made for occupational employment as a whole and for the number of college degrees to be awarded, considerable additional analysis is required before the employment prospects of college graduates can be projected. A major focus of that analysis is a determination of which occupations require a college degree. It is not possible to define college level and noncollege level jobs precisely nor to count them exactly. Employers may not agree with graduates as to whether a job requires a college education, and employers and graduates may disagree among themselves. Nor do occupational classification systems neatly distinguish between college level and other occupations. There are other complications: Few jobs require college level skills all the time. Some call upon these skills most of the time, others only sometimes, rarely, or never. And to some extent, job skill levels can be tailored to fit the abilities of incumbents. Still there is broad agreement at the opposite ends of the educational requirement spectrum. Most analysts would agree that virtually all positions in some occupations require college, while non do in others. It is recognized that there are exceptions, but for this article, all the positions held by graduates in the four following groups are considered to require college: Executive, administrative, and managerial: professional specialty: technologists and technicians: and nonretail sales representatives. In contrast, none of the positions in the following four groups is considered to require college: Retail sales workers; service workers except police and detectives; agriculture occupations except farm manager; and craft, operative, and laborer occupations except blue collar worker supervisors. In the remaining occupations and groups, only a portion of the jobs require college training. Taken together, surveys that ask individuals the level of education they needed to qualify for their current job, research for the Occupational Outlook Handbook, and standard descriptions of job duties, such as the Dictionary of Occupational Titles, suggest that 40 to 75 percent of the jobs held by graduates in the following occupations or groups require college: Marketing and sales worker supervisors; administrative support, including clerical; police and detectives; farm managers; and blue collar worker supervisors. 1992: Where College Graduates Were Employed About 30 million college graduates were in the labor force in 1992. (see chart 1.) Of these, nearly 1 million were unemployed. Of the 29 million who were employed, 12.1 million, or over 40 percent, held jobs in professional specialty occupations. The largest number were elementary, secondary, or college teachers; engineers; registered nurses; physicians; and lawyers. Almost a quarter, 7.9 million, worked in executive, administrative and managerial positions, such as accountant; school principal or other education administrator; marketing, advertising, and public relations manager and financial manager. About 1 in 10 worked in marketing and sales worker occupations. Within this group, college graduates were concentrated in occupations such as marketing and sales worker supervisor; nonretail sales worker, such as real estate or insurance agent; and retail sales worker. About 4 percent worked as technologists and technicians, mostly computer programmers and science, engineering, and health technologists and technicians. Another 9 percent worked in administrative support occupations, such as secretary, bookkeeper, and information clerk. About 5 percent were in craft, operative, and laborer jobs, including construction worker, mechanic and machine operator. Four percent were food service, health service, police and detectives, and other service workers. The remaining 1 percent were in agricultural occupations. Shaded Graphic Charts 2 and 3 omitted Of the 29 million employed graduates, about 24 million were employed in jobs that required a college degree and about 5 million were in jobs that did not. For some graduates, working in a job not requiring a degree was a deliberate choice. For example, those whose primary activity is attending graduate school or tending to a family responsibilities may prefer food service, retail sales, or similar work because of flexible hours or convenient locations. Others may just prefer the duties in those jobs. However, a large number of the graduates worked in these jobs because they could not find positions that required a college education. Sources of Job Openings For College Graduates Job openings for college graduates are created in three ways; Growth, upgrading, and replacement needs. Growth. The number of jobs for college graduates rises along with the growth of industries, such as education, that employ college graduates extensively. It also goes up when changes in technology and business practices require that an industry increase the relative number of college graduates that it employes. This is the case in the computer services industry. Compared with 1992, that industry is projected to employ relatively more systems analysts (who have college degrees) than word processors and computer operators (who do not need a college degree) in 2005. Upgrading. Within an occupation, upgrading also pushes up demand for college graduates. This occurs when the skills needed to do the work increase. Employers then seek people with at least a bachelor's degree for positions previously filled by workers with less education. In principle, upgrading can be measured bay comparing the proportion of college graduates in an occupation in a given year with the proportion in any earlier year. However, identifying skill upgrading proves difficult in practice because employers may hire available college graduates without regard to the skill needed for the position. Similarly, graduates may accept such positions just because they cannot find ones that more fully use their skills. For this article, projections of upgrading assume a continuation of past patterns of increases in the proportion of workers employed in occupations requiring a college degree. It could be argued that past trends poorly predict and that upgrading will accelerate. If it does, upgrading will result in more jobs for graduates than are projected here. However, the potential for upgrading is limited. It is unlikely to occur except when a position is vacant. That is to say, workers without a degree are not likely to be laid off in order to open a position for a college graduate. As a result, even jobs with upgrading potential will not be upgraded because they are currently held by workers without 4 year degrees who will still be on the job in 2005. Furthermore, the number of occupations that lend themselves to upgrading is limited. College graduates are not necessarily more qualified for many managerial, professional specialty, technician, and sales jobs than those having less education. On the job experience, 1 or 2 years of appropriate community college or technical school training, and apprenticeship, innate talents, or informally acquired skills are more valuable than a 4 year degree in many instances, particularly if the degree is in an unrelated field. This applies to many jobs for health and engineering technicians, professional athletes, performing and visual artists, and managers in small retail, service, repair, or construction establishments. Replacement needs. Job openings normally occur when an employee leaves a position that must be filled. Such turnover accounts for the bulk of the openings in many occupations. However, this is not the case in occupations that require college training because workers in these occupations are less likely to leave them. The projections of replacement needs used in this analysis are based on studies of occupational mobility. Projected Openings 1992-2005 Employment growth and replacement needs are projected to generate more than a million openings a year for college graduates between 1992 and 2005. (See chart 2.) Most of the openings will result from growth and upgrading rather than replacement needs. Growth, new and upgraded jobs. Between 1992 and 2005, total employment is projected to increase by 26.4 million. Of that total, 9.5 million, or 36 percent will be jobs requiring a college education, as the number of these jobs grows from 23.8 million to 33.3 million. The projected growth of 40 percent is more than twice that for jobs that do not require college (17 percent). As a result, positions that require a college education will grow from 20 to 23 percent of all jobs. On average, job growth is projected to be 730,000 a year. About 565,000, or three fourths, of the total will be from growth in occupations that traditionally require college and about 165,000, or one fourth, from upgrading of positions that did not require college in 1992. Replacement needs. The need to replace workers who permanently leave the labor force as a result of retirement, death, disability, and emigration and now hold positions that require college will provide an annual average of 320,000 openings for college graduates over the 1992-2005 period. This is a much higher number than the 190,000 openings per year between 1984 and 1992. The higher number reflects thee aging of the college educated work force as the baby boom generation begins to reach retirement age by 2005. Growth by Occupation Most of the growth in employment for college graduates will be in the occupational groups that currently employ the largest numbers of graduates. (See chart 3.) More than half the new and upgraded jobs will be in professional specialty occupations. Occupations with the largest projected growth include teacher, computer systems analyst, engineer, scientist, registered nurse, physician, physical and other therapist, social worker, and human services worker. Many of these jobs are available only to graduates with bachelor's degrees in specific fields. Postgraduate degrees are required in some of the other growing occupations, such as physician. Executive, administrative, and managerial positions are project to grow by 2.4 million. Among the growing occupations are accountant and financial manager. Again, positions in these occupations often require specific training. The balance of the new positions will be in the other major occupational groups. Among specific occupations projected to provide large numbers of new jobs are computer programmer, health and engineering technologist and technician, marketing and sales worker supervisor, real estate sales agent, manufacturing and wholesale trade sales worker, blue collar worker supervisor, and police and detective. There will also be additional college level administrative support and clerical jobs, due mostly to upgrading of jobs in occupations such as clerical supervisor, bookkeeper, secretary, and insurance claims and policy processing worker that do no traditionally require a college degree. Entrants Entrants to the college educated labor force come from several sources: New graduates, immigrants, and people returning to the labor force. The last group includes those who are currently serving in the military, taking care of family duties, or not in the civilian labor force for some other reason. BLS projects 1.38 million college graduates to enter the labor force each year, on average, between 1992 and 2005. This is about 15 percent more than entered the labor force annually over the previous 8 years. New graduates. The majority of the entrants are new graduates. The number of graduates is projected by NCES, based on the expected size of the college age population and trends in enrollment rates. These show an annual average of 1.21 million degrees over the 1992-2005 period. The NCES projections assume that enrollment rates will continue to rise, as they did during the 1984-92 period. In addition, the number of 18 to 24 year olds will begin to increase again in the late 1990's, leading to an ever growing number of graduates through 2005. Of the new graduates, about 1.18 million are expected to enter the labor force each year on average. This compares with about 1 million entrants each year between 1984 and 1992. Other entrants. In addition to the new graduates, about 200,000 other college graduates are expected to join the labor force each year during the 1990-2005 period. The projected number of other entrants is based on past patterns of entry. Several factors may result in the projection of other entrants being too low. A 1990 change in the immigration law raised the number of college educated workers allowed to immigrate to the United States. Therefore, it is possible that more college graduates will enter the country during the 1992-2005 period than in the past. Furthermore, the sources of entrants studied for the projections do not include the 6.1 million graduates who were unemployed or working in jobs that did not require college in 1992. Some of these workers will compete for jobs that call for the level of education they have attained, but others will not. Currently, no data are available that enable analysts to estimate the number of such graduates who both can and wish to compete for positions requiring college. Job Openings Versus Job Seekers In total, 17.9 million graduates are projected to join the labor force during the 1992-2005 period, an average of almost 1.4 million a year. During the same period, 13.7 million jobs requiring college are expected to open up, or an annual average of nearly 1.05 million. Because the number of college graduate jobseekers will grow more quickly than the number of college level jobs, nearly 25 percent of new entrants are expected to settle for jobs that do not require a college degree. As shown in chart 2, this indicates that the job market for college graduates will be even more competitive during the coming period than it was between 1984 and 1992, when job growth averaged 940,000 and entrants averaged 1.2 million per year. Implications for College Graduates A diversity of jobs is expected to be available to college graduates during the 1992-2005 period. However, nearly one quarter of entrants to the college graduate labor force will likely end up in jobs that traditionally have been filled with workers having less than a bachelor's degree. While some college graduates may enter these jobs by choice, many will accept work in these positions because they could not find work in traditional college level jobs. These projections point up the importance of knowing which occupations are likely to offer the best employment prospects. For more information on the job prospects and entry requirements by occupation, consult the 1994-91 Occupational Outlook Handbook (BLS Bulletin 2452). It is available in most school career centers and public libraries. The book may also be purchased at Government Printing Office book stores or by mail. The Class of '90: One Year After Graduation By Gary Steinberg The total number of bachelor's degrees awarded by U.S. colleges and universities rose in 1990 for the 13th straight year, to a record 1.05 million. How did these graduates fare in the job market? Did they find work that put their degrees to use? How many went on to further studies? What did they earn? What future education plans do they have? A survey of recent graduates conducted by the U.S. Department of Education answers these questions. The Department of Education regularly conducts surveys of recent college graduates 1 year after they graduate. This article reports on the results of a survey conducted in 1991 of the class of 1990. A similar article discussing four earlier surveys appeared in the fall 1990 issue of the OOQ. The most recent survey collected data on the labor force participation, employment, relevance of employment to major, earnings, enrollment in graduate or professional school, and education plans. Some data are available for all graduates as a whole, but in other cases detail is available for graduates in the following 11 major fields: Biological sciences Mathematics, computer sciences, Business and management and physical sciences Education Psychology Engineering Public affairs Health professions Social sciences History Humanities All Graduates Almost 9 out of 10 graduates were in the labor force, and all but 4 percent were employed (see chart). Many however, were employed only part time (less than 35 hours a week). Nine percent were not in the labor force because they were in school, and 3 percent were not in the labor force for other reasons. The employment prospects for graduates clearly depend on the fields of study they pursue. Unemployment rates among graduates 1 year after graduation ranged from 1 percent for those in the health professions to 8.2 percent for those in history. Similarly, the percentage in the labor force ranged widely, from 95 percent for math, computer sciences, and physical sciences to 68 percent for biological sciences. Two Shaded graphics omitted Gary Steinberg is an economist in the Office of Employment Projections, BLS (202)606-5694 More than three fourths of the employed graduates felt that their jobs were related to their major, and an even higher percentage thought that the jobs had career potential (see chart). Interestingly, 91 percent of the health profession graduates considered their job to be related to their major, but just over half of them were in jobs that actually required a 4 year degree. At the other end of the spectrum, only 30 percent of the history graduates held jobs related to their major; still, 60 percent thought that the job had career potential. The earnings of graduates also vary widely by occupation and major field of study (see charts). As expected, engineers, health workers, and computer scientists have the highest earnings in both cases. Additional education is a major activity of new graduates. Over one third (35 percent) of the 1989-90 graduates holding a bachelor's degree enrolled in school within 1 year after graduation. Of these, 17 percent were enrolled full time and 18 percent, part time. The percentage of graduates who plan to return to school some time in the future is even higher, as indicated in the following tabulation, which shows the educational aspirations of 1989-90 bachelor's degree recipients in 1991: No plans 17 percent Pursue degree First professional 8 Doctorate 13 Master's 62 The percent enrolling in some type of additional education in the previous studies was considerably lower than the 35 percent enrolling in 1991, ranging from 23 percent in 1985 to 24 percent in 1987. This difference can partially be explained by the changes in the way the data were collected. Respondents in some groups were asked more questions, and therefore provided more detailed information than in the past. In addition, there were slight wording changes in the questions. Average salary of graduated employed full time, class of 1990, 1 year after graduation, by occupation, 1991 Figures on bar chart Thousands of Dollars All 23.6 Biological scientists 21.3 Business and management 26.0 Clerical and support 20.0 Communications 19.6 Computer scientists/programmers 30.4 Crafts, operators, laborers 23.6 Educators 19.1 Engineers 32.0 Health Professionals 31.0 Mathematicians/physical scientist 26.0 Public affairs/social services 19.2 Sales 23.6 Services 18.4 Technicians 24.7 Writers and Artists 22.4 Average salary of class of 1990 graduates employed full time, by major field of study, 1991 Figures from bar chart Thousands of dollars All 23.6 Biological sciences 21.1 Business and management 24.7 Education 19.1 Engineering 30.9 Health professions 31.5 History 21.3 Humanities 19.1 Mathematics Computer/physical scn 27.2 Psychology 19.2 Public affairs 20.8 Social sciences 22.2 Limitations of the Data The information in this article should be helpful to individuals selecting a major field of study because it indicates the range of job possibilities for graduates with a degree in the fields discussed. However, the reader should be aware that the data are affected by the size of the sample, the time at which the survey was taken, and the qualifications of the candidates other than their academic major. The results are based on nationally representative sample of 16,172 bachelor's degree recipients receiving degrees between July 1989 and June 1990. Data were collected by means of a Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) survey conducted between July and December 1991. This sample represents about 1 percent of all bachelor's degree recipients during the stated time period. The results of a survey covering all graduates might differ. In addition, occupational patterns are likely to change as graduates gain experience or more education. Percent of class of 1990 graduates employed full time, by major field of study, 1991 Presented on bar chart Percentage All 74 Biological sciences 51 Business and management 83 Education 77 Engineering 85 Health professions 81 History 58 Humanities 59 Mathematics, computer sciences 71 Psychology 60 Public affairs 77 Social sciences 68 The following charts profile the 11 individual majors for which the survey yielded reliable data. For each field, the charts show the major occupations of the graduates, and the text provides additional information on career potential, earnings, unemployment, and school enrollment. Occupations of employed graduates with majors in Biological Sciences The biological sciences had the highest percentage of graduates continuing their education after graduation (64 percent), with just over one third enrolled and not working. About 62 percent of biological science majors were working (51 percent full time and 12 percent part time) 1 year after graduation. Among those employed, 27 percent had jobs as biological scientists. Other employed graduates were working in various related and unrelated occupations. Among those employed in occupations related to the biological sciences, 10 percent were employed as technicians, 9 percent as educators, 7 percent as health professionals, and 4 percent as physical scientists. About three fourths (73 percent) reported having jobs related to their major field of study, and two thirds indicated that their jobs had career potential. About 42 percent were in jobs not requiring a 4 year degree. The average salary for those employed full time was $21,000. Unemployment among biological science majors was 4 percent. Chart omitted Occupations of employed graduates with majors in Business and Management Almost 90 percent of business and management majors were employed 1 year after graduation (83 percent full time and 6 percent part time). Over 80 percent of graduates indicated that their jobs were related to their major field and had career potential. However, only slightly more than half (53 percent) indicated that a 4 year college degree was required for their jobs. About one third held positions as business managers; 29 percent had jobs in administrative support occupations; and 18 percent had jobs in sales. In terms of salary, business and management majors working full time ranked third among the fields covered, with an average salary of $24,700. Their unemployment rate was 5 percent. At 21 percent, school enrollment since graduation was the lowest among all majors studied. Chart omitted Occupations of employed graduates with majors in Education Graduates in education had an employment rate above the average for all graduates (92 percent), with 77 percent employed full time and 15 percent part time. However, about 15 percent of those employed as teachers were employed in substitute teaching jobs. Eighty-seven percent of education majors indicated they had jobs related to their major field of study, and 84 percent indicated that their jobs had career potential. Over three fourths (77 percent) had obtained jobs as educators at some level. The next largest category of occupations for education majors was administrative support, in which 7 percent of education majors were employed. About three fourths (76 percent) of education majors indicated that a college degree was required for their jobs. Unemployment among education majors (2 percent) was below the average for all majors. Although near the average of all graduates in the proportion enrolling in further education after graduation (38 percent), education majors had the highest percentage of students who enrolled in school full time after graduation (27 percent). The average annual salary for education majors employed full time was $19,100. This tied with humanities graduates as the lowest of all fields studied; however, most teachers work a 10 month year. [Graphic Omitted] Occupations of employed graduates with majors in Engineering Engineering majors employed full time had among the highest salaries of all majors, $30,900. Eighty-eight percent of engineering graduates were employed (85 percent full time and 3 percent part time). Of the 12 percent not working, over three- fourths (76 percent) had enrolled in continuing education. Overall, about one-third of engineering graduates had enrolled in advanced degree programs since graduation. Almost 6 out of 10 of those employed were working as engineers. About 7 percent of engineering graduates were employed as business managers, 7 percent in crafts, operators, and laborers category, 7 percent in the technician category, and 6 percent as computer scientists or programmers. About 90 percent of engineering graduates indicated they had jobs with career potential related to their major field. Eighty-one percent indicated that a college degree was required. The unemployment rate for engineers was 3 percent. [Graphic Omitted] Occupations of employed graduates with majors in Health Professions Graduates in the health professions had the lowest unemployment rate (1 percent) and ranked first in salary. The average full- time salary was $31,500. Over 9 out of 10 health professions graduates were employed (81 percent full time and 11 percent part time). Eighty percent of the employed were working as health professionals, 5 percent in administrative support, 4 percent as business managers, and 3 percent in biological sciences. Ninety- five percent reported that their jobs were related to their major field, and 92 percent felt that their jobs had career potential. About half (51 percent) reported that a 4-year degree was required to do their jobs. Just over one-fourth have continued their education since graduating. [Graphic Omitted] Occupations of employed graduates with majors in History About 73 percent of history majors were employed, with 58 percent employed full time and 15 percent employed part time 1 year after graduation. Fifty percent had enrolled in continuing education since graduation, with 21 percent enrolled and not working. History majors had an unemployment rate of 8 percent. History majors worked in many different occupations. Twenty-six percent were in administrative support jobs, 17 percent were educators, and 13 percent had sales positions. Only about one third (30 percent) of history majors reported that their jobs were related to their major field, and 60 percent indicated that the jobs had career potential. About one third (37 percent) indicated that a 4 year degree was required to perform their jobs, and their average salary was $21,300. [Graphic Omitted] Occupations of employed graduates with majors in Humanities Seventy-eight percent of graduates in the humanities were employed within 1 year after graduation (59 percent full time and 19 percent part time). Forty-three percent had enrolled in continuing education since graduation. Within that group, 15 percent were enrolled and not working. Occupations of the employed were dispersed throughout the work force, with the largest categories being administrative support (20 percent), educators (17 percent), and writers and artists (13 percent). Unemployment was 6 percent. Over half (57 percent) reported that their jobs were related to their major field, and 66 percent reported that the jobs had career potential. Forty-three percent were in jobs for which they reported that a 4-year degree was required. The average salary for full time employed humanities majors was $19,100. [Graphic Omitted] Occupations of employed graduates with majors in Mathematics, Computer Sciences, and Physical Sciences About 80 percent of math, computer science, and physical sciences majors were employed within a year of graduation (71 percent full time and 8 percent part time). Almost 40 percent were employed as computer scientists/programmers and 6 percent were employed in math/physical sciences. Others graduating in these fields were widely dispersed among various occupational categories. Eleven percent were educators and the same percent were in administrative support occupations. Five percent were employed as engineers, 4 percent as technicians, and 3 percent in the biological sciences. Eighty-six percent indicated that their jobs were related to their major field, and 85 percent felt that their jobs had career potential. Two thirds indicated that a 4 year degree was required for their jobs. About 40 percent had enrolled in continuing education since graduation, and 16 percent were enrolled and not working. The mean salary for those employed full time was $27,200. The unemployment rate was 5 percent. [Graphic Omitted] Occupations of employed graduates with majors in Psychology Among psychology majors, 74 percent were employed (60 percent full time and 14 percent part time). Fifty percent had enrolled in continuing education since graduation, and 20 percent were enrolled and not working. Occupations of psychology majors included administrative support (21 percent), public affairs and social services (20 percent), educators (14 percent), business managers (10 percent), and sales (10 percent). A few were employed as health professionals (5 percent), biological scientists (3 percent), and as computer scientists (3 percent). Almost two thirds (65 percent) indicated that their jobs were related to their major and 69 percent indicated that the jobs had career potential. Just under half (47 percent) indicated that a 4 year degree was required for their jobs. The average salary was $19,200, while the unemployment rate was 7 percent. [Graphic Omitted] Occupations of employed graduates with majors in Public Affairs Among public affairs and social service majors, 88 percent were employed 1 year after graduation, (77 percent full time and 11 percent part time). Almost one third obtained jobs in public affairs and social services, 26 percent obtained jobs as service personnel, and 12 percent were employed in administrative support or clerical occupations. About 71 percent indicated that their jobs were related to their major field, and 71 percent felt that the jobs had career potential. Just under half (48 percent) indicated that a 4 year college degree was required. About on third (35 percent) had taken more college courses since graduation. Their average full time salary was $20,800, and their unemployment rate was 5 percent. [Graphic Omitted] Occupations of employed graduates with majors in Social Sciences About 81 percent of graduates in the social sciences were employed (68 percent full time and 12 percent part time). Over 40 percent had enrolled in continuing education since graduation, and 14 percent were enrolled and not working. The graduates occupations were widely distributed with the largest category found in administrative support, where 25 percent were employed. the next largest categories were business managers with 18 percent, followed by jobs in sales with 13 percent. The unemployment rate for social science graduates was 5 percent. Only about half of the graduates (53 percent) indicated that their jobs were related to their major field, and almost three fourths (72 percent) indicated that their jobs had some career potential. About half (48 percent) indicated that they felt a 4 year degree was required for their jobs. The average salary for graduated employed full time was $22,200. [Graphic Omitted] Occupational Outlook Quarterly/Summer 1994 Job Market Profile of College Graduates in 1992: A Focus on Earnings and Jobs by Thomas A. Amirault Thomas Amirault is an economist in the Office of Employment Projections, BLS (202)606-5688 The two most important reasons noted by incoming students for deciding to go to college were to get a better job and to make more money, according to "The American Freshmen: National Norms for Fall 1992." Data from the 1992 Current Population Survey (CPS) provide a much more detailed picture of the job market success of those who went to college than was available in prior years. For the first time, the 1992 CPS included specific questions about the degree the respondent earned. In past years, data were only available by years of school completed, and 4 years of college or more were assumed to be the equivalent of at least a bachelor's degree. The new data make more accurate analysis possible concerning occupational employment and earnings of college graduates. In particular, more detail is available for holders of graduate and professional degrees. In this article, we analyze the median earnings and the earnings range for graduates, the kinds of jobs they held, and the graduates in jobs that do not require a 4 year degree (as defined in the accompanying article by Kristina Shelley). The article concludes by focusing on graduates who earn less than the median for high school graduates. Analysis of the new data shows that the two goals of the incoming students have bee achieved by the majority of those who have graduated. They have higher median earnings and lower unemployment rates. According to the CPS, the median earnings for college graduates were $37,359 in 1992. This was 47 percent more than the median for all workers. Unemployment for college graduates was 3 percent, less than half the national average of 7 percent. Additionally, most graduates were employed in the managerial, professional specialty, and high-level sales jobs to which college freshmen aspire. However, not all graduates have equal success. The data on both the earnings of graduates and the jobs they held tell the same story. Although median earnings are high, some graduates earned less than half as much, and the bottom 10 percent earned less than $15,438, well below the median for high school graduates, which was $21,241. And although most graduates are in professional or managerial occupations, more than one fourth of those with only a bachelor's degree are in jobs that do not require college, including large numbers of graduates in the 30 to 64 year old age group. Clearly, most graduates benefit by having a degree, but a college degree does not guarantee either a professional job or a high income. College Graduate Earnings One of the frequently discussed statistics concerning college graduates is the earnings difference, or premium, between the medians for high school graduates and college graduates. The premium depends in part on a graduate's degree level. While the premium for all graduates in 1992 was 76 percent, it varied from 62 percent for a bachelor's degree to 216 percent for a professional degree, as shown in the following tabulation of the median annual earnings of year-round, full-time workers by educational level, 1992: Premium over High school graduates Education level Earnings (Percent) Professional $67,131 216 Ph.D 52,403 147 Master's 40,666 91 Bachelor's 34,385 62 High School 21,241 Earnings rise with education for a number of reasons. Many highly paid occupations, such as physician and lawyer, are open only to workers with education beyond the undergraduate level. Also, people with advanced degrees may hold more senior jobs within occupations. To some extent, however, advanced degree holders earn more just because they are older, and incomes rise with age as expertise grows and makes workers more valuable to employers. Although median earnings are among the most often used statistics in evaluating the labor market, they are very limited measures. By definition, half of all workers earn more and half earn less. Few people actually earn the median or close to it. A more complete picture of earnings appears when a range of earnings is given. Chart 1 shows the range in earnings by degree. It presents earnings between the top and bottom 10 percent of workers, the range within which 80 percent of all workers fall. Generally, the top 10 percent earned about 4 times the lowest 10 percent at each education level. College graduates in the top 10 percent earned over $78,780, while those in the bottom 10 percent, less than $17,547. Earnings also vary within occupations. (See chart 2.) Within major occupational groups, the top 10 percent earned anywhere from 3 to 7 times more than the bottom 10 percent. While nonretail sales workers earned $87,519 or more in the top 10 percent and top managers earned more than $84,169, top professionals earned more than $59,306. However, data including advanced degree holders would show significantly higher earnings for professionals because it would include occupations such as physician and lawyer that cannot be entered without an advanced degree. Table 1 gives median earnings by degree level for more than 60 detailed occupations. Earnings also vary by age. (See Chart 3.) Median earnings increase about $19,000 between age 20 to 24 and age 40 to 49, on average and then decline. The range of earnings, however, continues to increase throughout the age distribution. The top 10 percent of 20 to 24 year olds earned more than 3 times as much as the bottom 10 percent, while those over 50 in the top 10 percent earned 5 times as much as those at the bottom. Earnings of workers in the bottom 10 percent peak at age 35, while those in the top 10 percent keep rising with age. Bachelor's graduates with earnings in the top 10 percent earned more than $75,000 a year after age 40. Those in the bottom 10 percent in each age group did not earn more than $17,944. Employment in Noncollege level Jobs Clearly, some graduates have low earnings. Often, this is because they do not have jobs that usually require a college degree. According to Kristina Shelley's analysis in the accompanying article, about 5.2 million (17 percent of all college graduates) were in noncollege level jobs, and another 1 million (3 percent) were unemployed. But the percentage of graduates employed in such jobs depends in part on the level of education they attain. (See chart 4.) As an individual's education increases, his or her likelihood of employment in noncollege level jobs decreases. A common assumption is that employment in positions that do not require college is primarily a problem for new bachelor's degree graduates, who may have difficulty finding jobs initially but who eventually find college level jobs. However, high rates of employment in such positions are found in every age group. (See chart 5.) As expected, the percent of bachelor's degree graduates in jobs not requiring college or unemployed decreases markedly from the 44 percent in the 20 to 24 year old group to 28 percent in the 25 to 29 year old group. But little change occurs thereafter. The percent in such jobs actually increases for workers age 60 and over. This likely reflects voluntary movement into such jobs after retirement. This same pattern is exhibited with little variation excepting magnitude for advanced degree holders. It is important to point out that these data are only for 1992. The CPS does not follow individuals through their work lives. Therefore, we do not know if middle-aged bachelor's degree graduates have been in jobs that do not require their level of education throughout their working lives or only for a short time, nor can we estimate the probability that 25 to 29 year olds working in such jobs will eventually lad one more in line with their academic training. College Graduates Earning Less Than High School Graduates Earnings data show that a sizable portion of graduates have low earnings. Although there is no accepted definition of low earnings, the median earnings of all workers and the median for high school graduates provide two yardsticks against which earnings are often measured. In 1992, 16 percent of college graduates earned less than the median for high school graduates ($21,241 annually), and nearly 26 percent earned less than the median for all workers ($25,440). Even excluding workers under age 30, who are more likely to be in low paid entry level or temporary jobs, the proportions remain significant. About 14 percent of the college graduates age 30 and over earned less than the median for high school graduates, and about 21 percent earned less than the median for all workers. The proportion of college graduates earning less than $21,241 decreases sharply as education increases, as shown in chart 6. Graduates employed in jobs not requiring postsecondary education are likely to have low wages, but so do some graduates in jobs that do require college, particularly in education, social services, and religious services. Chart 7 shows the percent of bachelor's degree holders with earnings below the median high school graduate by occupation group. It clearly shows the high proportion of graduates in jobs not requiring college and that pay low wages. However, there are also some low earning bachelor's degree holders employed in managerial, professional, technician, and nonretail sales jobs, all of which are defined as jobs requiring a postsecondary education. As would be expected, relatively low earnings are most common among the youngest graduates. (See chart 8.) But large numbers of older college graduates also have earnings below the median for high school graduates. Their earnings pattern by age resembles that of high school graduates by age (see chart 5). Many of the younger workers may be in entry level jobs requiring college. Those in the older age groups may be retired but holding lower paid jobs to supplement their retirement incomes. Another explanation is that bachelor's degree holders, who earn the highest wages, retire altogether, causing the low earners who can't afford to retire to make up a greater proportion of the workers in the older age groups. Detailed Occupations Earnings vary by occupation without regard to the education of the worker. Table 1 shows the median annual earnings of occupations employing more than 100,000 college graduates by degree level, ranked from the highest to lowest earnings. It also shows college graduate employment and the number in jobs that do and do not require a college education. Graduates in occupations having many jobs that do not require advanced education generally earn less than those in occupations that do. However, there are some exceptions. Degreed social workers earn less than college graduate mechanics and repairers. The table shows that although earnings generally increase with education, in some occupations, such as bookkeeper and accounting and auditing clerks and motor vehicle operator, extra education adds little. It also shows that median earnings for graduates in some occupations is below $21,241, the median for all high school graduates. Conclusion The data presented in this article show that jobs not requiring postsecondary education and low earnings for college graduates are particularly common for bachelor's degree holders and are problems not limited to recent graduates. Also the earnings of college graduates vary widely. In addition to the occupation, degree level and age explain some of the difference in the earnings of college graduates. Chart 1 Distribution of earnings for college graduates by degree level, 1992 High $78,800 $67,416 $76,290 $99,210 $101,184 Median 37,359 34,385 40,666 52,403 67,131 Low 17,547 15,438 20,651 25,431 28,343 Total all Bachelor's Master's Ph.D. Profess Graduates Degree Degree Degree Degree Chart 2 Distribution of earnings for bachelor's degree holders by occupational group, 1992 M 39,941 34,919 32,840 38,850 23,445 24,076 24,819 30,111 21,941 H 84,169 59,306 53,756 87,519 49,879 42,160 50,381 57,454 44,437 L 20,697 18,343 19,727 15,281 9,803 13,259 10,943 13,740 8,053 Exec Prof Tech N/r Retail Admin Servic Craft Farm Mrg Spec Sales Sales Sport Repair Labor Chart 3 Distribution of earnings for bachelor's degree holders by age group, 1992 9th decile 35,427 43,947 64,230 78,016 79,773 83,020 98,920 median 20,739 27,743 35,631 39,358 39,335 37,491 33,558 1st decile 10,887 15,440 17,944 16,827 15,073 13,806 6,108 Age Age Age Age Age Age Age 20-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-64 65 ovr Chart 4 Percent of college graduates employed in noncollege-level jobs and unemployed by degree level, 1992 Unemployed 4 3 1 1 N/c level job 23 10 4 4 Bachlor's Master's Ph.D Professional Degree Degree Degree Degree Chart 5 Percent of bachelor's degree holders employed in noncollege level jobs and unemployed by age group, 1992 Unemployed 7 4 4 3 4 3 2 N/C level job 36 24 22 20 19 21 25 Age Age Age Age Age Age Age 20-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-64 65/over Chart 6 Percent of college graduates earning less than the median for high school graduates ($21,241) by degree level, 1992 Total all college graduates 16 Bachelor's degree 20 Master's degree 11 Ph.D degree 7 Professional degree 5 Chart 7 Percent of bachelor's degree holders earning less than the median for high school graduates ($21,241) by occupational group, 1992 Executive and managerial 11 Professional specialty 16 Technicians 14 Nonretail sales 19 Retail sales 44 Administrative support 41 Service 41 Precision production, craft, and repair 23 Farming, transportation, machine operators, and laborers 49 Chart 8 Percent of bachelor's degree holders earning less than the median for high school graduates ($21,241) by age group, 1992 Age 20-24 53 Age 25-29 27 Age 30-39 16 Age 40-49 16 Age 50-59 18 Age 60-64 20 Age 65 and over 40 Table 1 Median annual earnings and employment of college and high school graduates, by occupation and degree level, 1992 Median annual earnings Occupation All Bachlr Master Ph.d High Colleg Degree Degree Prof School Grad degree Grad Total 37,359 34,385 40,666 59,541 21,241 Physicians 88,281 94,404 Lawyers 73,572 73,947 Dentists 71,319 79,285 Marketing, Advertising, and Public Relations Managers 53,560 50,428 39,416 Managers and Administrators not elsewhere classified 51,302 48,702 61,577 74,686 30,064 Mechanical engineers 51,130 49,866 Financial managers 50,121 49,102,60,754 26,606 Management analysts 49,384 40,438 Electrical and Electronic engineers 49,220 46,939 54,880 Pharmacists 48,270 49,190 Securities and financial svc sales occupations 47,315 48,169 Civil engineers 47,222 44,890 Architects 47,192 48,839 Industrial engineers 44,179 42,223 Computer systems analysts 43,766 40,808 49,116 35,850 Administrators and officials public administration 43,453 38,770 49,391 29,204 Administrators, education and related fields 43,352 36,207 44,701 49,085 College, University teachers 43,130 35,879 52,914 Operations and systems researchers,analysts 42,825 42,400 Supervisor, production occupations 42,307 40,911 30,032 Managers, medicine, health 41,880 40,754 26,352 Sales Rep, mining, manufacturing, wholesale 41,457 41,365 41,128 28,311 Sales occupations, other business services 41,394 41,972 31,947 Chemist, except biochemists 41,197 Other financial officers 40,899 36,146 56,320 26,182 Registered nurses 39,758 39,062 45,766 Administrative support supervisors 39,511 38,218 27,114 Inspectors and compliance officers not construction 39,101 33,385 Real estate sales 38,976 38,544 20,142 Psychologists 38,911 41,126 42,234 Public relations specialist 37,954 34,535 Supervisors, general office 37,726 37,489 26,153 Police, detectives except supervisors 37,470 35,965 28,392 Computer programmers 36,735 36,413 31,789 Accounts and auditors 36,719 35,836 43,502 22,377 Managers property, real est 36,709 36,089 21,388 Sales supervisors and proprietors 36,495 34,737 42,688 22,754 Insurance sales 35,572 32,565 26,156 Personnel, training and labor relations specialists 34,803 30,282 23,598 Counselors, educational and vocational 33,538 33,371 Teachers, secondary school 32,883 29,036 36,464 Clinical laboratory technolog and technicians 32,908 32,136 Librarians 31,776 32,695 Mechanics and repairers 31,665 30,252 28,755 Editors and reporters 31,163 26,436 Engineering technologists and technicians 30,855 30,350 28,121 Insurance adjusters, examiners, investigators 30,642 30,144 23,102 Construction trades 29,987 29,918 26,484 Designers 29,979 30,285 21,907 Teachers, elementary school 29,907 27,302 34,633 Managers, food service and lodging establishments 29,872 29,393 19,751 Computer operators 29,756 25,418 22,436 Teachers, special education 29,704 26,459 33,223 Social workers 28,037 25,297 34,483 Teachers, prekindergarten and kindergarten 27,722 21,050 32,613 Investigators and adjusters except insurance 26,300 24,038 19,995 Machine operators, assemblers and inspectors 25,356 26,011 20,214 Painters, sculptors, craft artist/artist printmaker 24,503 Motor vehicle operators 24,422 25,762 24,794 Retail sales, commodities 23,733 23,839 23,254 15,662 Farm operator manager 32,031 22,138 14,260 Cashier 21,546 20,736 12,263 Secretaries 21,277 20,426 19,920 Clergy 20,658 18,827 Bookkeepers, accounting and audit clerk 19,712 19,777 18,272 Waiters and waitresses 15,146 15,272 11,392 Food preparation and service except waiters/waitress 13,066 13,105 23,372 Data not shown where base is less than 50,000 Several spceific managerial occupations ar also included in table Occupation Employment (thousands) Total College College College graduat Grad in Grad in Emplmnt college Non/C lev job lev job Total 117,627 28,869 23,772 5,097 Physicians 607 592 592 0 Lawyers 752 136 736 0 Dentists 162 159 15 0 Marketing, Advertising, and Public Relations Managers 518 307 307 0 Managers and Administrators not elsewhere classified 5,848 2,416 2,416 0 Mechanical engineers 303 223 223 0 Financial managers 521 300 300 0 Management analysts 220 154 154 0 Electrical and Electronic engineers 540 401 401 0 Pharmacists 198 187 187 0 Securities and financial svc sales occupations 320 212 212 0 Civil engineers 218 173 173 0 Architects 139 121 121 0 Industrial engineers 204 126 126 0 Computer systems analysts 693 491 491 0 Administrators and officials public administration 543 303 303 0 Administrators, education and related fields 608 476 476 0 College, University teachers 738 673 673 0 Operations and systems researchers,analysts 192 112 112 0 Supervisor, production occupations 1,216 158 38 120 Managers, medicine, health 366 219 219 0 Sales Rep, mining, manufacturing, wholesale 1,530 612 612 0 Sales occupations, other business services 469 201 201 0 Chemist, except biochemists 119 101 101 0 Other financial officers 667 395 395 0 Registered nurses 1,807 872 872 0 Administrative support 756 191 149 42 supervisors Inspectors and compliance officers not construction 228 103 103 0 Real estate sales 718 291 291 0 Psychologists 227 202 202 0 Public relations specialist 163 107 107 0 Supervisors, general office 462 123 96 27 Police, detectives except supervisors 863 150 96 54 Computer programmers 544 323 323 0 Accounts and auditors 1,363 934 934 0 Managers property, real est 436 130 130 0 Sales supervisors and proprietors 3,907 1,025 518 507 Insurance sales 571 256 256 0 Personnel, training and labor relations specialists 414 219 219 0 Counselors, educational and vocational 231 202 202 0 Teachers, secondary school 1,178 1,112 1,112 0 Clinical laboratory technolog and technicians 299 137 137 0 Librarians 180 131 131 0 Mechanics and repairers 4,434 240 6 234 Editors and reporters 261 188 188 0 Engineering technologists and technicians 921 174 174 0 Insurance adjusters, examiners, investigators 371 104 77 27 Construction trades 4,802 280 19 261 Designers 544 223 223 0 Teachers, elementary school 1,636 1,529 1,529 0 Managers, food service and lodging establishments 1,146 238 238 0 Computer operators 662 107 62 45 Teachers, special education 274 250 250 0 Social workers 587 415 415 0 Teachers, prekindergarten and kindergarten 478 273 273 0 Investigators and adjusters except insurance 687 135 100 35 Machine operators, assemblers and inspectors 7,515 272 0 272 Painters, sculptors, craft artist/artist printmaker 221 107 107 0 Motor vehicle operators 3,701 174 0 174 Retail sales, commodities 3,600 530 0 530 Farm operator manager 1,235 165 88 79 Cashier 2,531 132 0 132 Secretaries 3,712 357 298 59 Clergy 318 230 230 0 Bookkeepers, accounting and audit clerk 1,827 222 190 32 Waiters and waitresses 1,362 119 0 119 Food preparation and service except waiters/waitress 4,077 171 0 171