FXUS65 KPIH 151532
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO IDAHO
930 AM MDT SUN AUG 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWING UPPER 
DISTURBANCE OVER THE ARCO AREA WITH ENHANCED CLOUDS NOTED ON IR 
SATELLITE IMAGERY ARCHING SE INTO WRN WYOMING.  12Z ETA DID NOT 
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WHEREAS 
THE 06Z AVN LOOKED TO BE DOING MUCH BETTER.  AVN APPEARS TO WANT TO 
LIFT THIS FEATURE SLOWLY NNW TODAY PLACING CNTRL MOUNTAINS UNDER 
BEST POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. 
PREPONDERANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE WET AS 
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES HAVE RISEN OVER 0.80 INCHES.  FURTHER 
SOUTH...A WEAK CIRCULATION WAS NOTED LIFTING NNW THROUGH NE NEVADA 
AND THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CNTRL IDAHO BORDER 
THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CASSIA 
COUNTY.  OVERALL...ATMOSPHERE RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE SO BROAD 
BRUSH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE FOR 
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  WEATHER SCENARIO LOOKS INTERESTING FOR 
MONDAY AS DEEP SUB-TROPICAL WAVE OVER LAS VEGAS LIFTS NORTH IN 
RESPONSE TO PACIFIC WAVE MOVING EAST INTO CNTRL CALIFORNIA COAST 
THIS MORNING.  THE FORMER WAVE AND DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE 
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH ERN NEVADA TONIGHT/MONDAY 
SPREADING ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY (PER LATEST 12Z 
ETA) RAISING THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN 
HIGHLANDS.  THE 06Z AVN (AND PREVIOUS RUNS) HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SHY 
ON THE IDEA OF LIFTING THIS SUB-TROPICAL WAVE SO FAR NORTH OPTING TO 
DRIVE IT SE THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL UTAH TUESDAY AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY 
DIGS SE THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES.  HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO 
AFTERNOON/EVENING FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL AWAIT ANY FURTHER 
MODIFICATIONS UNTIL AFTER 12Z AVN ARRIVES.  HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$