1 Table A1. Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Supply, Disposition, and Prices ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Production Crude Oil and Lease Condensate ................. 15.74 15.85 15.54 15.12 14.97 14.54 14.14 13.79 13.55 13.37 13.13 12.86 12.71 12.66 12.67 12.64 12.68 12.68 12.61 12.55 12.56 Natural Gas Plant Liquids..... 2.16 2.26 2.10 2.12 2.13 2.16 2.16 2.19 2.21 2.24 2.27 2.30 2.34 2.35 2.36 2.36 2.34 2.33 2.32 2.30 2.28 Dry Natural Gas .............. 18.27 18.07 18.34 18.62 18.66 18.96 18.94 19.19 19.43 19.66 19.89 20.19 20.50 20.64 20.64 20.74 20.58 20.49 20.35 20.26 20.06 Coal.......................... 22.46 21.70 22.48 22.15 22.51 22.95 23.16 23.34 23.57 23.87 24.33 24.57 24.83 25.19 25.84 26.49 27.33 28.23 29.20 30.15 31.23 Nuclear Power................. 6.19 6.25 6.23 6.43 6.55 6.54 6.71 6.75 6.79 7.00 6.97 7.05 7.07 7.07 7.09 7.06 7.09 7.08 7.07 7.01 6.92 Renewable Energy ............. 6.62 6.89 7.20 7.15 7.34 7.52 7.70 7.90 8.10 8.30 8.51 8.68 8.87 9.07 9.28 9.51 9.67 9.85 10.01 10.19 10.36 Total..................... 71.45 71.03 71.88 71.59 72.15 72.67 72.81 73.16 73.67 74.45 75.10 75.66 76.32 76.99 77.87 78.81 79.69 80.66 81.56 82.46 83.40 Imports Crude Oil .................... 12.70 12.41 12.18 12.82 13.15 13.77 14.39 14.94 15.51 15.90 16.59 17.29 17.65 18.07 18.22 18.51 18.48 18.51 18.71 18.73 18.76 Petroleum Products............ 4.29 4.04 5.16 5.45 5.71 5.91 5.89 5.87 5.87 5.86 5.89 5.93 5.97 6.01 6.04 6.22 6.57 6.86 7.02 7.38 7.67 Natural Gas .................. 1.45 1.53 1.67 1.93 2.15 2.31 2.48 2.64 2.76 2.78 2.80 2.85 2.93 3.01 3.15 3.20 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.41 3.42 Other Imports ................ 0.09 0.30 0.38 0.47 0.52 0.61 0.66 0.68 0.71 0.73 0.75 0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.98 1.02 1.06 1.10 1.14 1.18 Total..................... 18.53 18.28 19.38 20.68 21.53 22.61 23.43 24.14 24.85 25.27 26.02 26.87 27.39 27.96 28.32 28.91 29.38 29.78 30.24 30.66 31.03 Exports Coal.......................... 2.77 2.65 2.70 2.79 2.94 3.15 3.19 3.26 3.38 3.53 3.72 3.78 3.94 4.14 4.38 4.64 4.89 5.16 5.44 5.75 6.09 Petroleum..................... 1.80 1.90 1.62 1.62 1.63 1.63 1.64 1.64 1.64 1.65 1.66 1.67 1.68 1.69 1.70 1.73 1.75 1.77 1.78 1.80 1.82 Total..................... 4.57 4.55 4.32 4.41 4.57 4.79 4.83 4.90 5.02 5.18 5.38 5.45 5.62 5.83 6.08 6.37 6.64 6.92 7.22 7.54 7.90 Net Stock Withdrawals............ -1.32 -0.07 -0.25 -0.15 -0.21 -0.22 -0.18 -0.19 -0.20 -0.19 -0.23 -0.26 -0.10 -0.11 -0.12 -0.17 -0.18 -0.18 -0.18 -0.21 -0.21 Discrepancy ..................... 0.93 0.04 0.34 0.26 0.24 0.22 0.20 0.21 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 -0.03 -0.04 -0.08 -0.12 -0.18 -0.20 Consumption Petroleum Products ........... 33.79 32.98 33.74 34.15 34.60 35.01 35.23 35.39 35.71 35.94 36.39 36.84 37.24 37.63 37.86 38.23 38.56 38.84 39.11 39.34 39.59 Natural Gas................... 19.38 19.37 19.96 20.46 20.71 21.17 21.32 21.77 22.08 22.33 22.57 22.92 23.29 23.53 23.67 23.82 23.76 23.72 23.63 23.53 23.37 Coal.......................... 19.09 19.11 19.72 19.50 19.65 19.86 20.04 20.17 20.30 20.44 20.70 20.90 21.04 21.20 21.58 21.97 22.53 23.16 23.84 24.49 25.21 Nuclear Power................. 6.19 6.25 6.23 6.43 6.55 6.54 6.71 6.75 6.79 7.00 6.97 7.05 7.07 7.07 7.09 7.06 7.09 7.08 7.07 7.01 6.92 Renewable Energy/Other ....... 6.57 7.02 7.38 7.42 7.65 7.91 8.13 8.34 8.56 8.77 8.98 9.17 9.38 9.59 9.81 10.08 10.26 10.45 10.64 10.83 11.02 Total....................... 85.02 84.73 87.03 87.96 89.15 90.49 91.43 92.43 93.44 94.48 95.61 96.89 98.02 99.0 100.0 101.2 102.2 103.2 104.3 105.2 106.1 Net Imports - Petroleum.......... 15.18 14.56 15.71 16.65 17.24 18.05 18.65 19.18 19.73 20.11 20.81 21.55 21.94 22.38 22.55 23.01 23.31 23.60 23.96 24.32 24.61 Prices (1990 dollars per unit) World Oil Price ($ per bbl) .... 21.78 18.40 18.90 18.90 19.80 20.80 21.80 22.90 24.00 25.20 26.40 27.40 28.30 29.10 29.80 30.50 31.10 31.70 32.30 32.90 33.40 Gas Wellhead Price ($ per Mcf).. 1.72 1.63 1.74 1.86 1.91 2.02 2.08 2.19 2.32 2.52 2.72 2.91 3.12 3.32 3.50 3.70 3.83 4.00 4.16 4.42 4.65 Coal Minemouth Price ($ per ton) 21.76 22.21 22.37 22.57 23.27 24.01 24.99 24.61 25.33 25.93 26.64 27.03 27.47 27.29 28.00 28.71 29.10 29.70 30.35 30.92 31.63 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A2. Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Sector and Source ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Residential Distillate Fuel............... 1.00 1.00 1.07 1.01 0.96 0.91 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.74 0.70 0.67 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.48 Kerosene...................... 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 Liquefied Petroleum Gas....... 0.46 0.49 0.50 0.48 0.46 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.32 0.32 Natural Gas................... 4.50 4.70 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.01 5.00 4.98 4.97 4.95 4.94 4.92 4.91 4.89 4.87 4.85 4.82 4.80 4.77 4.74 4.71 Coal.......................... 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 Renewable Energy ............. 0.96 0.96 0.99 1.03 1.07 1.12 1.20 1.28 1.35 1.44 1.51 1.59 1.68 1.75 1.84 1.91 1.99 2.07 2.15 2.23 2.31 Electricity................... 3.14 3.28 3.40 3.43 3.46 3.51 3.54 3.58 3.61 3.65 3.70 3.74 3.79 3.84 3.89 3.94 3.98 4.03 4.08 4.13 4.18 Total....................... 10.22 10.58 11.10 11.07 11.08 11.10 11.13 11.17 11.22 11.27 11.33 11.39 11.47 11.54 11.61 11.68 11.75 11.82 11.90 11.98 12.06 Commercial Distillate Fuel............... 0.51 0.51 0.55 0.55 0.54 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.40 Kerosene...................... 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 Motor Gasoline ............... 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 Residual Fuel................. 0.21 0.22 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 Natural Gas................... 2.70 2.76 2.92 2.98 3.01 3.03 3.06 3.08 3.10 3.12 3.14 3.16 3.18 3.20 3.21 3.22 3.24 3.25 3.26 3.28 3.29 Other ........................ 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 Renewable Energy ............. 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.21 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.29 0.30 0.32 0.33 0.34 Electricity................... 2.87 2.92 3.03 3.07 3.13 3.20 3.27 3.34 3.41 3.49 3.56 3.64 3.72 3.80 3.89 3.98 4.07 4.16 4.25 4.34 4.44 Total....................... 6.68 6.81 7.10 7.17 7.25 7.34 7.43 7.53 7.63 7.73 7.83 7.93 8.00 8.10 8.20 8.30 8.40 8.51 8.61 8.71 8.82 Industrial Distillate Fuel............... 1.08 0.99 1.09 1.23 1.25 1.28 1.29 1.30 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.32 1.33 1.33 1.34 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.39 Liquefied Petroleum Gas....... 1.49 1.57 1.60 1.77 1.82 1.87 1.89 1.90 1.91 1.94 1.97 2.00 2.03 2.07 2.10 2.14 2.18 2.22 2.25 2.29 2.33 Motor Gasoline ............... 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 Petrochemical Feedstocks...... 1.09 1.06 1.10 1.10 1.12 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.26 1.28 1.31 1.34 1.36 1.40 1.43 1.46 1.49 1.52 1.55 Residual Fuel................. 0.58 0.60 0.53 0.76 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.70 Other Petroleum .............. 4.11 3.79 4.02 3.64 3.66 3.66 3.66 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.66 3.67 3.68 3.68 3.69 3.69 3.70 3.70 3.71 3.71 Natural Gas .................. 8.71 8.52 8.60 8.80 8.89 9.08 9.14 9.19 9.26 9.30 9.30 9.29 9.26 9.22 9.17 9.13 9.10 9.08 9.04 8.98 8.90 Metallurgical Coal............ 1.06 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.73 Steam Coal ................... 1.71 1.69 1.70 1.67 1.68 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.72 1.74 1.81 1.87 1.87 1.86 Net Coal Coke Imports......... 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.20 Renewable Energy ............. 2.01 2.06 2.15 2.19 2.21 2.25 2.26 2.27 2.29 2.31 2.32 2.33 2.33 2.35 2.37 2.40 2.41 2.43 2.45 2.47 2.50 Electricity................... 3.20 3.16 3.27 3.25 3.33 3.43 3.51 3.60 3.69 3.79 3.90 4.01 4.12 4.22 4.32 4.43 4.54 4.65 4.76 4.87 4.97 Total....................... 25.25 24.54 25.22 25.58 25.90 26.36 26.55 26.72 26.92 27.12 27.29 27.47 27.64 27.78 27.91 28.12 28.33 28.59 28.83 28.97 29.11 Transportation Distillate Fuel............... 3.74 3.67 3.87 3.99 4.10 4.21 4.27 4.32 4.38 4.46 4.54 4.66 4.75 4.83 4.90 4.97 5.06 5.15 5.23 5.31 5.39 Jet Fuel...................... 3.13 2.97 3.05 3.15 3.24 3.33 3.34 3.39 3.46 3.50 3.58 3.67 3.74 3.80 3.86 3.94 4.02 4.04 4.10 4.15 4.20 Motor Gasoline ............... 13.58 13.43 13.48 13.71 13.87 13.98 14.06 14.12 14.21 14.31 14.41 14.54 14.67 14.78 14.89 15.02 15.15 15.27 15.37 15.46 15.55 Residual Fuel................. 0.77 0.79 0.70 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.83 0.85 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.02 Other Petroleum .............. 0.26 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 Pipeline Fuel Natural Gas..... 0.59 0.61 0.60 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.73 Compressed Natural Gas........ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 Alcohol Fuels................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 Electricity................... 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 Total....................... 22.07 21.73 21.96 22.48 22.88 23.22 23.40 23.60 23.86 24.11 24.40 24.78 25.11 25.41 25.69 26.01 26.33 26.59 26.86 27.10 27.37 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A2. Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector and Source (Continued) (Quadrillion Btu per Year) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Sector and Source ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Electric Utilities .. Distillate Fuel............... 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.16 0.19 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.17 Residual Fuel................. 1.16 1.05 1.11 1.00 1.03 1.08 1.15 1.14 1.27 1.25 1.42 1.50 1.60 1.68 1.64 1.66 1.63 1.62 1.57 1.52 1.44 Natural Gas................... 2.88 2.78 2.85 3.05 3.17 3.39 3.47 3.85 4.07 4.26 4.49 4.83 5.21 5.49 5.67 5.86 5.85 5.83 5.79 5.77 5.71 Steam Coal ................... 16.16 16.36 16.97 16.81 16.94 17.12 17.33 17.47 17.61 17.78 18.04 18.27 18.41 18.59 18.98 19.37 19.92 20.50 21.13 21.79 22.54 Nuclear Power................. 6.19 6.25 6.23 6.43 6.55 6.54 6.71 6.75 6.79 7.00 6.97 7.05 7.07 7.07 7.09 7.06 7.09 7.08 7.07 7.01 6.92 Renewable Energy/Other ....... 3.54 3.91 4.12 4.05 4.20 4.37 4.47 4.54 4.63 4.71 4.81 4.88 4.97 5.06 5.15 5.29 5.36 5.42 5.49 5.55 5.62 Total....................... 30.02 30.44 31.36 31.41 31.98 32.63 33.26 33.94 34.54 35.19 35.94 36.73 37.45 38.08 38.71 39.41 40.02 40.62 41.21 41.80 42.39 Primary Energy Consumption Distillate Fuel............... 6.42 6.26 6.68 6.86 6.95 7.04 7.09 7.13 7.14 7.20 7.25 7.33 7.36 7.41 7.44 7.49 7.55 7.61 7.68 7.74 7.82 Kerosene...................... 0.14 0.13 0.14 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 Jet Fuel...................... 3.13 2.97 3.05 3.15 3.24 3.33 3.34 3.39 3.46 3.50 3.58 3.67 3.74 3.80 3.86 3.94 4.02 4.04 4.10 4.15 4.20 Liquefied Petroleum Gas....... 2.06 2.16 2.21 2.35 2.37 2.40 2.41 2.40 2.40 2.42 2.43 2.46 2.48 2.50 2.53 2.56 2.59 2.63 2.65 2.69 2.73 Motor Gasoline................ 13.87 13.73 13.77 14.04 14.20 14.32 14.41 14.47 14.56 14.67 14.77 14.91 15.04 15.16 15.27 15.41 15.54 15.66 15.77 15.86 15.96 Petrochemical Feedstocks...... 1.09 1.06 1.10 1.10 1.12 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.26 1.28 1.31 1.34 1.36 1.40 1.43 1.46 1.49 1.52 1.55 Residual Fuel................. 2.72 2.66 2.53 2.66 2.69 2.75 2.81 2.80 2.93 2.92 3.10 3.18 3.29 3.39 3.36 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.36 3.32 3.27 Other Petroleum .............. 4.35 4.02 4.26 3.88 3.90 3.91 3.91 3.91 3.92 3.92 3.93 3.94 3.95 3.96 3.97 3.98 3.99 4.01 4.02 4.02 4.03 Natural Gas................... 19.38 19.37 19.96 20.46 20.71 21.17 21.32 21.77 22.08 22.33 22.57 22.92 23.29 23.53 23.67 23.82 23.76 23.72 23.63 23.53 23.37 Metallurgical Coal............ 1.06 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.73 Steam Coal.................... 18.03 18.21 18.82 18.59 18.73 18.94 19.14 19.28 19.42 19.58 19.85 20.07 20.21 20.39 20.78 21.18 21.75 22.40 23.09 23.75 24.49 Net Coal Coke Imports......... 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.20 Nuclear Power................. 6.19 6.25 6.23 6.43 6.55 6.54 6.71 6.75 6.79 7.00 6.97 7.05 7.07 7.07 7.09 7.06 7.09 7.08 7.07 7.01 6.92 Renewable Energy/Other ....... 6.57 7.00 7.33 7.35 7.58 7.84 8.05 8.24 8.45 8.65 8.85 9.03 9.22 9.42 9.62 9.88 10.05 10.23 10.40 10.59 10.77 Alcohols...................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 Total....................... 85.02 84.73 87.03 87.96 89.15 90.49 91.43 92.43 93.44 94.48 95.61 96.89 98.02 99.0 100.0 101.2 102.2 103.2 104.3 105.2 106.1 Electricity Consumption (all sectors) ..................... 9.23 9.37 9.71 9.75 9.94 10.15 10.34 10.53 10.74 10.95 11.18 11.41 11.65 11.88 12.12 12.37 12.62 12.88 13.13 13.38 13.63 Industrial Electricity Gross Consumption........... 3.58 3.55 3.69 3.70 3.80 3.91 4.01 4.10 4.20 4.31 4.42 4.54 4.65 4.76 4.86 4.98 5.10 5.22 5.34 5.45 5.56 Self-generation - Own Use..... 0.39 0.40 0.43 0.46 0.47 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.50 0.52 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.54 0.55 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.58 0.59 Purchased Electricity......... 3.20 3.16 3.27 3.25 3.33 3.43 3.51 3.60 3.69 3.79 3.90 4.01 4.12 4.22 4.32 4.43 4.54 4.65 4.76 4.87 4.97 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A3. Energy Prices by End-Use Sector and Source (1990 Dollars per Million Btu) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Sector and Source ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Residential..................... 11.94 11.83 11.85 11.98 12.12 12.26 12.37 12.50 12.61 12.88 13.19 13.46 13.70 13.94 14.18 14.44 14.63 14.85 15.05 15.30 15.58 Primary Energy................ 6.28 5.97 6.10 6.24 6.29 6.39 6.47 6.58 6.72 6.92 7.11 7.30 7.50 7.68 7.84 8.02 8.15 8.30 8.45 8.69 8.90 Petroleum Products.......... 8.43 7.55 7.62 7.59 7.70 7.81 8.02 8.26 8.50 8.75 9.01 9.23 9.42 9.60 9.76 9.91 10.05 10.19 10.33 10.47 10.58 Distillate Fuel........... 7.66 6.80 6.90 6.86 6.98 7.11 7.30 7.51 7.72 7.95 8.18 8.37 8.54 8.69 8.82 8.95 9.06 9.17 9.28 9.40 9.48 Kerosene.................. 8.77 7.91 8.05 8.11 8.30 8.51 8.65 8.80 8.96 9.12 9.29 9.43 9.55 9.66 9.75 9.85 9.92 10.00 10.07 10.15 10.22 Liquefied Petroleum Gas... 10.02 9.04 9.07 9.05 9.09 9.13 9.38 9.65 9.92 10.22 10.51 10.75 10.97 11.17 11.35 11.52 11.67 11.83 11.98 12.13 12.27 Natural Gas................. 5.60 5.50 5.64 5.85 5.90 6.02 6.08 6.19 6.32 6.52 6.72 6.92 7.13 7.33 7.51 7.71 7.84 8.01 8.17 8.43 8.66 Steam Coal.................. 2.16 2.12 2.18 2.19 2.23 2.27 2.30 2.32 2.36 2.40 2.47 2.48 2.51 2.54 2.60 2.66 2.72 2.76 2.80 2.85 2.90 Electricity................... 22.96 23.15 23.18 23.05 23.12 23.10 23.03 22.96 22.80 22.96 23.24 23.42 23.51 23.62 23.77 23.94 24.03 24.14 24.22 24.31 24.49 Commercial...................... 12.23 12.13 12.15 12.14 12.30 12.36 12.40 12.46 12.61 12.81 13.06 13.28 13.46 13.66 13.85 14.08 14.26 14.44 14.62 14.83 15.09 Primary Energy................ 5.01 4.79 4.91 5.02 5.09 5.22 5.31 5.45 5.60 5.81 6.02 6.21 6.42 6.61 6.78 6.97 7.11 7.27 7.42 7.66 7.87 Petroleum Products.......... 5.72 5.10 5.27 5.29 5.44 5.61 5.83 6.06 6.30 6.55 6.81 7.03 7.24 7.42 7.58 7.75 7.89 8.03 8.18 8.31 8.43 Distillate Fuel........... 5.67 4.77 4.88 4.84 4.96 5.09 5.28 5.50 5.71 5.94 6.17 6.36 6.55 6.70 6.83 6.96 7.08 7.19 7.30 7.42 7.50 Residual Fuel............. 2.99 2.84 2.99 3.04 3.23 3.43 3.61 3.80 3.99 4.20 4.41 4.59 4.74 4.89 5.00 5.12 5.22 5.32 5.42 5.52 5.62 Kerosene.................. 5.75 5.42 5.56 5.62 5.82 6.03 6.17 6.33 6.48 6.66 6.83 6.97 7.10 7.22 7.32 7.42 7.50 7.59 7.68 7.76 7.83 Other Petroleum .......... 9.08 8.62 8.75 8.77 8.87 9.04 9.30 9.58 9.87 10.16 10.46 10.72 10.93 11.14 11.32 11.55 11.70 11.85 12.02 12.17 12.30 Natural Gas................. 4.86 4.77 4.88 5.00 5.05 5.17 5.23 5.33 5.47 5.67 5.87 6.07 6.28 6.48 6.66 6.85 6.99 7.16 7.32 7.58 7.81 Steam Coal.................. 2.13 2.09 2.11 2.12 2.17 2.20 2.25 2.27 2.29 2.34 2.40 2.42 2.44 2.48 2.53 2.58 2.63 2.67 2.72 2.76 2.82 Electricity................... 21.67 21.78 21.71 21.47 21.55 21.35 21.16 20.95 20.93 20.94 21.09 21.16 21.12 21.15 21.21 21.32 21.37 21.43 21.46 21.52 21.65 Industrial...................... 5.41 5.28 5.41 5.39 5.50 5.63 5.76 5.90 6.08 6.30 6.54 6.75 6.95 7.14 7.32 7.51 7.65 7.80 7.93 8.12 8.30 Primary Energy................ 3.88 3.70 3.83 3.87 3.96 4.08 4.20 4.34 4.49 4.69 4.89 5.06 5.24 5.40 5.55 5.70 5.82 5.94 6.06 6.23 6.38 Petroleum Products.......... 5.43 5.09 5.22 5.17 5.32 5.47 5.65 5.86 6.06 6.29 6.51 6.69 6.86 7.01 7.14 7.27 7.38 7.49 7.60 7.71 7.81 Distillate Fuel........... 5.63 4.71 4.82 4.78 4.90 5.02 5.21 5.42 5.63 5.86 6.09 6.28 6.45 6.60 6.73 6.86 6.97 7.08 7.19 7.31 7.39 Liquefied Petroleum Gas... 5.71 5.21 5.25 5.29 5.34 5.36 5.61 5.88 6.15 6.44 6.73 6.97 7.19 7.38 7.55 7.72 7.87 8.02 8.16 8.32 8.45 Motor Gasoline ........... 9.36 8.96 9.18 9.12 9.23 9.48 9.73 9.99 10.27 10.56 10.85 11.10 11.29 11.49 11.66 11.90 12.03 12.17 12.34 12.47 12.59 Residual Fuel............. 2.69 2.63 2.78 2.84 3.03 3.24 3.41 3.60 3.80 4.00 4.22 4.39 4.55 4.69 4.81 4.93 5.03 5.13 5.23 5.33 5.42 Other Petroleum .......... 5.46 5.27 5.40 5.43 5.60 5.78 5.93 6.10 6.27 6.45 6.64 6.79 6.93 7.05 7.16 7.27 7.36 7.45 7.54 7.63 7.71 Natural Gas ................ 2.94 2.86 2.97 3.11 3.16 3.28 3.34 3.45 3.58 3.79 3.98 4.18 4.39 4.59 4.76 4.96 5.09 5.26 5.42 5.67 5.91 Metallurgical Coal.......... 1.78 1.83 1.85 1.86 1.92 1.96 2.00 2.03 2.07 2.12 2.17 2.19 2.21 2.24 2.29 2.33 2.36 2.41 2.46 2.51 2.56 Steam Coal.................. 1.50 1.61 1.63 1.65 1.68 1.70 1.73 1.73 1.76 1.79 1.83 1.85 1.88 1.90 1.93 1.97 2.01 2.04 2.08 2.12 2.16 Electricity................... 14.41 14.33 14.33 14.25 14.34 14.40 14.43 14.39 14.51 14.63 14.88 15.05 15.17 15.31 15.45 15.63 15.70 15.79 15.87 15.94 16.08 Transportation.................. 8.47 7.98 8.19 8.19 8.31 8.50 8.72 8.96 9.20 9.46 9.71 9.93 10.10 10.27 10.42 10.61 10.72 10.85 10.98 11.11 11.20 Primary Energy................ 8.46 7.97 8.18 8.18 8.30 8.49 8.71 8.95 9.19 9.45 9.70 9.92 10.09 10.26 10.41 10.59 10.71 10.83 10.97 11.09 11.18 Petroleum Products.......... 8.46 7.97 8.18 8.18 8.30 8.49 8.71 8.95 9.19 9.45 9.70 9.92 10.09 10.26 10.41 10.59 10.71 10.83 10.97 11.09 11.18 Distillate Fuel .......... 8.51 7.98 8.18 8.44 8.57 8.70 8.89 9.10 9.31 9.54 9.77 9.96 10.12 10.27 10.40 10.53 10.64 10.75 10.86 10.98 11.06 Jet Fuel ................. 5.69 4.52 4.61 4.57 4.69 4.82 5.02 5.23 5.45 5.69 5.92 6.12 6.29 6.45 6.58 6.71 6.83 6.94 7.06 7.17 7.26 Motor Gasoline ........... 9.34 8.97 9.20 9.14 9.26 9.50 9.75 10.02 10.30 10.58 10.87 11.12 11.31 11.51 11.68 11.92 12.05 12.19 12.35 12.49 12.61 Residual Fuel............. 3.03 2.46 2.65 2.75 2.98 3.22 3.36 3.52 3.68 3.85 4.04 4.18 4.31 4.43 4.52 4.62 4.70 4.79 4.87 4.95 4.99 Other Petroleum .......... 10.60 12.38 12.52 12.57 12.75 12.94 13.09 13.26 13.42 13.60 13.78 13.93 14.06 14.18 14.29 14.40 14.48 14.58 14.67 14.76 14.83 Natural Gas................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.27 5.32 5.44 5.50 5.60 5.73 5.94 6.13 6.33 6.54 6.75 6.92 7.12 7.26 7.43 7.59 7.84 8.08 Electricity................... 23.54 23.91 23.96 23.75 23.95 23.37 23.35 23.28 23.12 23.04 23.28 23.40 23.37 23.48 23.58 23.79 23.99 24.18 24.14 24.20 24.49 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A3. Energy Prices by End-Use Sector and Source (Continued) (1990 Dollars per Million Btu) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Sector and Source ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Total End-Use Energy............ 8.30 8.11 8.26 8.26 8.37 8.50 8.64 8.80 8.99 9.22 9.48 9.70 9.89 10.08 10.26 10.46 10.60 10.75 10.89 11.07 11.24 Primary Energy................ 6.22 5.90 6.06 6.10 6.20 6.35 6.51 6.69 6.89 7.12 7.36 7.57 7.76 7.94 8.10 8.28 8.41 8.55 8.69 8.85 9.00 Electricity................... 19.60 19.75 19.75 19.62 19.69 19.61 19.52 19.40 19.35 19.43 19.64 19.76 19.80 19.88 19.99 20.12 20.18 20.25 20.30 20.36 20.50 Electric Utilities Fossil Fuel Average........... 1.70 1.67 1.72 1.73 1.78 1.86 1.92 1.96 2.03 2.11 2.22 2.31 2.41 2.50 2.57 2.65 2.69 2.73 2.76 2.81 2.88 Petroleum Products.......... 3.42 3.16 3.32 3.35 3.56 3.84 4.04 4.21 4.39 4.60 4.76 4.92 5.06 5.19 5.31 5.43 5.54 5.64 5.74 5.83 6.17 Distillate Fuel........... 5.28 4.47 4.57 4.36 4.48 4.63 4.82 5.04 5.26 5.49 5.73 5.91 6.07 6.22 6.35 6.48 6.59 6.69 6.81 6.91 6.99 Residual Fuel............. 3.28 3.06 3.22 3.26 3.47 3.76 3.94 4.08 4.28 4.47 4.62 4.79 4.94 5.07 5.19 5.32 5.43 5.53 5.62 5.71 6.07 Natural Gas................. 2.33 2.13 2.29 2.30 2.38 2.51 2.58 2.69 2.83 3.04 3.27 3.49 3.73 3.97 4.18 4.39 4.55 4.73 4.89 5.14 5.44 Steam Coal.................. 1.45 1.49 1.52 1.52 1.56 1.59 1.63 1.62 1.65 1.68 1.74 1.75 1.77 1.79 1.82 1.86 1.89 1.91 1.93 1.96 2.00 Average Price to All Users .. Petroleum Products............ 7.42 6.98 7.15 7.16 7.28 7.46 7.66 7.89 8.12 8.37 8.59 8.80 8.97 9.12 9.28 9.45 9.57 9.70 9.83 9.96 10.07 Distillate Fuel ............ 7.62 6.96 7.10 7.22 7.35 7.48 7.68 7.89 8.12 8.35 8.59 8.80 9.00 9.17 9.31 9.45 9.58 9.71 9.83 9.95 10.05 Jet Fuel.................... 5.69 4.52 4.61 4.57 4.69 4.82 5.02 5.23 5.45 5.69 5.92 6.12 6.29 6.45 6.58 6.71 6.83 6.94 7.06 7.17 7.26 Kerosene.................... 7.68 7.01 7.15 7.31 7.48 7.65 7.77 7.89 8.01 8.15 8.29 8.39 8.49 8.57 8.63 8.69 8.74 8.78 8.83 8.88 8.92 Liquefied Petroleum Gas..... 6.83 6.22 6.26 6.18 6.18 6.17 6.40 6.64 6.89 7.16 7.43 7.64 7.84 8.02 8.17 8.32 8.45 8.58 8.72 8.85 8.97 Motor Gasoline ............. 9.34 8.97 9.20 9.14 9.25 9.50 9.75 10.02 10.30 10.58 10.87 11.12 11.31 11.51 11.68 11.92 12.05 12.19 12.35 12.49 12.61 Residual Fuel............... 3.06 2.77 2.95 2.99 3.20 3.45 3.63 3.79 3.99 4.17 4.36 4.53 4.68 4.82 4.93 5.04 5.14 5.23 5.31 5.40 5.58 Other Petroleum Products ... 5.70 5.61 5.73 5.79 5.97 6.15 6.31 6.48 6.66 6.84 7.03 7.19 7.33 7.46 7.57 7.68 7.78 7.87 7.96 8.06 8.14 Natural Gas................... 3.82 3.75 3.91 4.02 4.06 4.15 4.20 4.28 4.39 4.59 4.77 4.95 5.14 5.34 5.51 5.70 5.84 6.01 6.17 6.43 6.69 Coal.......................... 1.47 1.53 1.54 1.55 1.59 1.62 1.66 1.65 1.68 1.71 1.77 1.78 1.80 1.82 1.85 1.89 1.91 1.94 1.96 1.99 2.03 Electricity................... 19.60 19.75 19.75 19.62 19.69 19.61 19.52 19.40 19.35 19.43 19.64 19.76 19.80 19.88 19.99 20.12 20.18 20.25 20.30 20.36 20.50 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A4. Electricity Supply, Disposition, and Prices (Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Supply, Disposition, and Prices ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Electric Utilities Generation by Fuel Type Coal.......................... 1558 1573 1635 1621 1633 1651 1671 1685 1699 1714 1740 1762 1776 1794 1832 1867 1926 1981 2042 2108 2184 Petroleum..................... 117 106 113 102 106 112 118 123 133 135 152 159 169 176 172 173 170 168 163 158 152 Natural Gas................... 264 256 261 282 294 314 321 350 372 386 403 432 461 490 510 529 532 537 536 536 532 Nuclear Power................. 577 583 581 590 601 600 615 620 623 642 639 646 649 649 650 647 650 649 648 642 634 Pumped Storage Hydroelectric.. -9 -10 -10 -10 -10 -10 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -13 -13 -13 -13 -13 -13 -13 -13 -13 -13 Renewable Sources/Other ...... 300 313 323 314 316 318 320 322 325 327 330 331 333 335 337 340 341 342 342 343 344 Total....................... 2807 2822 2903 2898 2940 2985 3035 3089 3141 3194 3253 3318 3375 3431 3487 3542 3605 3663 3719 3775 3832 Net Imports..................... 2 18 22 28 33 40 43 44 44 44 44 46 47 48 49 53 54 56 58 60 62 Nonutilities .. Generation by Fuel Type Coal.......................... 35 36 40 43 47 51 52 52 53 53 53 54 54 54 55 58 66 82 99 116 133 Petroleum..................... 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 Natural Gas................... 115 121 136 149 152 153 155 157 165 177 181 187 197 207 219 226 230 231 232 233 233 Renewable Sources/Other ...... 76 82 88 96 105 113 119 124 129 136 143 149 156 162 169 177 181 186 190 194 199 Total....................... 230 244 268 293 308 322 331 339 353 371 384 396 413 430 448 468 484 506 528 550 572 Sales to Utilities ............. 115 127 143 159 170 180 187 193 205 218 230 241 256 271 287 305 319 339 360 380 400 Generation for Own Use ......... 115 116 125 135 138 142 144 145 148 152 154 155 157 159 161 162 164 166 168 170 172 Electricity Sales by Sector Residential..................... 922 962 996 1004 1015 1028 1038 1048 1059 1071 1084 1097 1111 1125 1139 1153 1167 1181 1195 1210 1225 Commercial/Other ............... 846 859 892 902 922 942 963 984 1005 1027 1050 1073 1098 1122 1148 1174 1201 1229 1256 1284 1313 Industrial...................... 938 925 957 951 976 1005 1030 1055 1082 1110 1142 1175 1206 1236 1265 1297 1330 1364 1396 1427 1458 Total......................... 2705 2746 2845 2858 2913 2975 3030 3087 3146 3209 3276 3345 3415 3483 3552 3625 3699 3774 3847 3921 3996 End-Use Prices .. (1990 cents per kilowatthour) Residential..................... 7.83 7.90 7.91 7.86 7.89 7.88 7.86 7.83 7.78 7.83 7.93 7.99 8.02 8.06 8.11 8.17 8.20 8.24 8.26 8.30 8.36 Commercial/Other ............... 7.40 7.43 7.41 7.33 7.36 7.29 7.22 7.15 7.14 7.15 7.20 7.22 7.21 7.22 7.24 7.28 7.30 7.32 7.33 7.35 7.40 Industrial ..................... 4.92 4.89 4.89 4.86 4.89 4.91 4.92 4.91 4.95 4.99 5.08 5.14 5.18 5.22 5.27 5.33 5.36 5.39 5.41 5.44 5.49 All Sectors Average........... 6.69 6.74 6.74 6.70 6.72 6.69 6.66 6.62 6.60 6.63 6.70 6.74 6.76 6.78 6.82 6.87 6.88 6.91 6.93 6.95 6.99 Price Components .. (1990 cents per kilowatthour) Capital Component............... 2.92 3.03 3.00 2.95 2.93 2.83 2.73 2.64 2.55 2.51 2.48 2.44 2.36 2.31 2.27 2.24 2.23 2.21 2.20 2.19 2.18 Fuel Component.................. 1.68 1.64 1.70 1.70 1.76 1.84 1.90 1.95 2.02 2.09 2.19 2.27 2.37 2.45 2.52 2.59 2.63 2.67 2.71 2.75 2.82 O&M Component................... 2.08 2.07 2.04 2.04 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.02 2.02 2.00 2.00 Total......................... 6.69 6.74 6.74 6.70 6.72 6.69 6.66 6.62 6.60 6.63 6.70 6.74 6.76 6.78 6.82 6.87 6.88 6.91 6.93 6.95 6.99 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A5. Electricity Generating Capability (Thousand Megawatts) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Summer Capability 1/ ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Electric Utilities Capability Coal Steam.................... 300.0 298.9 299.4 299.1 299.1 300.6 300.1 299.8 301.7 303.2 306.1 306.7 307.9 309.3 314.5 320.1 328.8 337.7 347.8 358.8 371.0 Other Fossil Steam ........... 144.4 142.4 142.4 141.1 139.9 138.3 137.1 136.0 135.4 133.6 131.8 130.4 129.0 128.3 126.8 124.7 123.7 123.1 122.2 121.4 120.9 Combined Cycle................ 6.0 6.0 6.3 7.5 8.1 8.4 8.8 9.9 11.4 11.9 12.1 14.5 17.6 24.4 30.4 35.1 39.3 42.6 44.3 45.9 47.3 Combustion Turbine/Diesel..... 46.2 47.4 48.3 48.8 50.0 53.4 55.7 58.0 59.9 63.9 65.7 67.0 68.0 69.5 70.6 72.7 73.7 75.3 76.8 78.9 80.5 Nuclear Power................. 99.6 99.6 99.6 100.8 101.9 101.9 103.1 103.1 104.3 104.3 104.2 105.4 105.4 105.4 105.4 105.4 105.4 105.0 105.0 103.0 101.7 Pumped Storage Hydroelectric.. 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.8 Renewable Sources/Other ...... 77.4 77.6 78.1 78.7 79.4 79.6 79.9 80.7 81.2 81.6 82.2 82.5 82.8 83.1 83.4 83.8 84.0 84.1 84.2 84.4 84.5 Total....................... 690.9 689.2 691.4 693.3 695.7 700.8 703.3 706.1 712.6 717.1 723.7 728.4 732.5 741.7 753.0 763.6 776.6 789.5 802.1 814.3 827.8 Cumulative Planned Additions .. Coal Steam.................... 2.99 3.78 4.28 4.28 5.05 7.86 8.71 9.88 12.78 15.27 18.62 19.26 20.24 20.24 20.24 21.36 21.72 21.72 21.72 21.72 21.72 Other Fossil Steam............ 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.58 0.58 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 Combined Cycle................ 0.13 0.14 0.46 1.71 2.28 2.54 2.93 3.81 4.70 5.28 5.43 5.70 5.70 5.83 5.96 5.96 5.96 5.96 5.96 5.96 5.96 Combustion Turbine/Diesel..... 0.65 1.86 2.76 3.57 4.79 6.56 7.99 9.66 11.09 12.71 13.88 14.14 14.16 14.24 14.32 14.38 14.44 14.44 14.44 14.44 14.44 Nuclear Power................. 2.30 2.30 2.30 3.45 4.62 4.62 5.79 5.79 7.00 7.00 7.00 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 Pumped Storage Hydroelectric.. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Renewable Sources/Other ...... 0.18 0.40 0.91 1.37 1.87 2.01 2.19 2.80 3.13 3.30 3.64 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 Total....................... 6.25 8.48 10.73 14.40 18.63 24.94 28.96 33.29 40.61 45.47 53.89 56.42 57.42 57.64 57.85 59.18 59.59 59.59 59.59 59.59 59.59 Cumulative Unplanned Additions .. Coal Steam.................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.56 1.11 1.67 3.89 10.00 15.00 23.89 33.33 43.89 55.56 68.33 Other Fossil Steam............ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Combined Cycle................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.83 0.83 0.83 3.06 6.11 12.78 18.61 23.33 27.50 30.83 32.50 34.17 35.56 Combustion Turbine/Diesel..... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.61 2.44 3.11 3.67 6.00 6.72 7.89 9.28 11.00 12.61 14.61 15.56 17.17 18.89 21.00 22.61 Nuclear Power................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Pumped Storage Hydroelectric.. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Renewable Sources/Other ...... 0.08 0.14 0.09 0.19 0.42 0.51 0.66 0.80 0.98 1.19 1.45 1.73 2.02 2.31 2.60 2.90 3.03 3.16 3.30 3.43 3.57 Total....................... 0.08 0.14 0.09 0.19 0.42 2.12 3.10 4.19 5.49 8.03 9.56 13.79 19.07 29.98 43.83 55.85 69.98 84.50 98.58 114.2 130.1 Cumulative Total Additions....... 6.33 8.62 10.81 14.59 19.05 27.06 32.07 37.48 46.09 53.50 63.45 70.21 76.50 87.61 101.7 115.0 129.6 144.1 158.2 173.7 189.7 Cumulative Retirements........... 1.54 5.55 5.61 7.41 9.48 12.42 14.90 17.55 19.63 22.56 25.89 27.98 30.20 32.02 34.83 37.54 39.14 40.72 42.27 45.66 48.06 Nonutilities .. Capability Coal.......................... 6.35 6.89 7.61 8.33 9.02 9.99 10.20 10.25 10.30 10.35 10.41 10.48 10.57 10.65 10.73 11.37 12.57 15.43 18.29 21.15 24.00 Petroleum..................... 1.16 1.24 1.53 1.65 1.69 1.73 1.77 1.81 1.85 1.88 1.92 1.97 2.01 2.06 2.11 2.16 2.21 2.27 2.33 2.39 2.45 Natural Gas................... 11.47 14.02 16.80 19.33 19.83 20.02 20.45 20.85 22.22 24.30 25.27 26.51 28.56 30.62 32.94 34.43 35.39 35.52 35.65 35.79 35.92 Renewable Sources/Other ...... 15.09 16.74 17.88 19.42 21.28 23.06 24.09 24.99 25.93 26.90 27.89 28.90 29.88 30.92 32.00 33.15 33.87 34.61 35.36 36.14 36.95 Total....................... 34.07 38.90 43.82 48.73 51.81 54.80 56.52 57.90 60.30 63.44 65.49 67.85 71.02 74.25 77.78 81.11 84.04 87.83 91.63 95.47 99.3 Cumulative Additions............. 5.94 10.77 15.69 20.61 23.68 26.67 28.39 29.77 32.17 35.32 37.37 39.73 42.89 46.13 49.65 52.98 55.92 59.70 63.50 67.34 71.19 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A6. Renewable Energy (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Electricity and Nonelectric ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Electricity Capability (gigawatts) Conventional Hydropower....... 75.76 76.28 76.79 77.30 77.82 78.33 78.35 78.38 78.40 78.43 78.46 78.46 78.46 78.46 78.46 78.46 78.47 78.48 78.49 78.51 78.52 Geothermal.................... 2.54 2.64 2.76 2.87 3.01 3.14 3.65 4.07 4.48 4.90 5.32 5.80 6.27 6.75 7.22 7.69 7.84 7.98 8.12 8.26 8.40 Municipal Solid Waste......... 2.36 2.76 3.11 3.70 4.43 5.21 5.66 6.12 6.62 7.17 7.76 8.29 8.85 9.45 10.10 10.78 11.18 11.59 12.01 12.45 12.91 Biomass/Other Waste........... 5.25 5.46 5.79 5.88 5.97 6.03 6.08 6.14 6.21 6.28 6.31 6.35 6.36 6.42 6.47 6.57 6.62 6.68 6.74 6.82 6.91 Solar Thermal................. 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.67 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.19 1.22 1.25 1.28 1.31 1.39 1.46 1.54 1.61 1.69 Solar Photovoltaic............ 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Wind.......................... 1.95 2.12 2.22 2.40 2.52 2.62 2.78 2.95 3.12 3.29 3.46 3.63 3.80 3.97 4.14 4.31 4.48 4.65 4.82 4.99 5.16 Total....................... 88.30 89.70 91.12 92.58 94.43 96.48 97.69 98.83 100.0 101.2 102.5 103.7 105.0 106.3 107.7 109.1 110.0 110.9 111.7 112.7 113.6 Generation (billion kilowatthrs) Conventional Hydropower....... 290.6 304.7 306.5 308.6 310.5 312.4 312.1 311.9 311.8 311.5 311.2 311.0 310.8 310.6 310.4 310.2 310.1 310.0 309.9 309.9 309.8 Geothermal.................... 14.13 14.62 15.53 16.24 17.19 18.03 21.43 24.37 27.31 30.40 33.95 37.45 40.96 44.46 47.97 53.83 54.91 56.00 57.09 58.18 59.27 Municipal Solid Waste......... 13.53 15.98 18.20 22.39 27.00 31.48 33.99 36.68 39.68 42.98 46.60 49.88 53.41 57.25 61.34 65.73 68.23 70.80 73.52 76.34 79.26 Biomass/Other Waste........... 26.08 26.72 28.60 29.33 30.20 31.51 32.60 33.57 34.72 35.84 36.23 36.81 37.49 38.17 38.84 39.36 40.16 41.41 41.97 42.57 43.46 Solar Thermal................. 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 1.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.31 2.26 2.81 2.89 2.97 3.05 3.13 3.18 3.38 3.58 3.78 3.98 4.18 Solar Photovoltaic............ 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Wind.......................... 2.84 3.06 3.24 3.53 3.72 3.87 4.15 4.43 4.70 5.06 7.06 7.45 7.85 8.25 8.65 9.26 9.68 10.09 10.51 10.92 11.34 Total....................... 347.9 365.9 372.8 380.9 389.9 399.6 406.6 413.2 420.5 428.1 437.9 445.5 453.5 461.8 470.3 481.5 486.5 491.9 496.8 501.9 507.3 Consumption/Displacement Conventional Hydropower....... 3.02 3.17 3.19 3.21 3.23 3.25 3.25 3.24 3.24 3.24 3.24 3.23 3.23 3.23 3.23 3.23 3.22 3.22 3.22 3.22 3.22 Geothermal.................... 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.22 0.25 0.28 0.32 0.35 0.39 0.43 0.46 0.50 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.60 0.62 Municipal Solid Waste......... 0.14 0.17 0.19 0.23 0.28 0.33 0.35 0.38 0.41 0.45 0.48 0.52 0.55 0.59 0.64 0.68 0.71 0.74 0.76 0.79 0.82 Biomass/Other Waste........... 0.27 0.27 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.45 Solar Thermal................. 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 Solar Photovoltaic............ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Wind.......................... 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.12 Total....................... 3.61 3.80 3.87 3.95 4.05 4.15 4.22 4.29 4.37 4.44 4.55 4.63 4.71 4.80 4.88 5.00 5.05 5.11 5.16 5.21 5.27 Nonelectric Renewable Energy Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Geothermal.................... 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.22 0.24 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.34 0.36 0.39 0.41 Biofuels...................... 2.70 2.73 2.84 2.90 2.95 3.03 3.08 3.13 3.18 3.24 3.29 3.34 3.38 3.44 3.49 3.56 3.61 3.67 3.72 3.79 3.84 Solar Thermal................. 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.12 0.14 0.18 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.28 0.30 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.39 0.41 0.44 0.46 Transportation Ethanol....................... 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.24 Total....................... 2.84 2.89 3.01 3.08 3.15 3.24 3.34 3.46 3.58 3.69 3.80 3.91 4.01 4.13 4.25 4.37 4.48 4.60 4.71 4.84 4.95 Total Renewable Energy............ 6.44 6.69 6.89 7.04 7.20 7.38 7.57 7.75 7.94 8.14 8.35 8.54 8.72 8.93 9.13 9.37 9.53 9.70 9.87 10.05 10.22 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A7. Macroeconomic Indicators (Billion 1982 Dollars, Unless Otherwise Noted) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ GNP Implicit Price Deflator (index 1982=1.000)................ 1.315 1.360 1.396 1.437 1.479 1.530 1.587 1.646 1.708 1.772 1.841 1.915 1.996 2.081 2.170 2.265 2.364 2.467 2.577 2.693 2.812 Real Gross National Product....... 4156 4153 4292 4416 4537 4650 4745 4841 4951 5074 5200 5331 5447 5561 5672 5804 5932 6060 6177 6287 6404 Real Disposable Personal Income... 2894 2881 2942 3024 3089 3147 3198 3246 3303 3367 3430 3503 3573 3643 3712 3785 3858 3928 3997 4061 4128 Index of Manufacturing Gross Output (index 1982=1.000)........ 1.218 1.192 1.262 1.303 1.342 1.381 1.415 1.448 1.489 1.536 1.585 1.634 1.675 1.713 1.752 1.800 1.848 1.894 1.934 1.969 2.008 AA Utility Bond Rate (percent).... 9.66 9.35 9.98 9.67 9.06 8.83 8.89 8.97 8.95 8.88 8.78 8.74 8.72 8.72 8.74 8.73 8.71 8.67 8.65 8.64 8.64 90-Day U.S. Government Treasury Bill Rate (percent)...... 7.49 5.92 7.08 6.51 5.72 5.56 5.66 5.75 5.73 5.67 5.61 5.56 5.53 5.51 5.49 5.46 5.43 5.40 5.38 5.38 5.38 Energy Intensity (thousand Btu per 1982 dollar of GNP)........... 20.46 20.40 20.28 19.92 19.65 19.46 19.27 19.09 18.87 18.62 18.39 18.17 17.99 17.81 17.63 17.43 17.23 17.04 16.88 16.73 16.57 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A8. Petroleum Supply and Disposition Balance (Million Barrels per Day, Unless Otherwise Noted) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Supply and Disposition ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ World Oil Price (1990 $/bbl) ... 21.78 18.40 18.90 18.90 19.80 20.80 21.80 22.90 24.00 25.20 26.40 27.40 28.30 29.10 29.80 30.50 31.10 31.70 32.30 32.90 33.40 Production Crude Oil .................... 7.35 7.37 7.17 6.99 6.89 6.68 6.45 6.28 6.16 6.06 5.91 5.79 5.71 5.66 5.64 5.62 5.63 5.62 5.55 5.52 5.51 Alaska...................... 1.77 1.79 1.70 1.57 1.46 1.33 1.22 1.15 1.08 1.02 0.93 0.84 0.79 0.73 0.71 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.70 0.73 0.78 Lower 48.................... 5.58 5.58 5.47 5.42 5.43 5.34 5.23 5.14 5.07 5.04 4.98 4.94 4.92 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.90 4.85 4.79 4.73 Natural Gas Plant Liquids..... 1.56 1.63 1.51 1.53 1.53 1.56 1.55 1.58 1.59 1.61 1.63 1.66 1.68 1.69 1.69 1.70 1.69 1.68 1.67 1.65 1.64 Other Domestic ............... 0.08 0.12 0.15 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.29 0.29 0.32 0.33 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.39 0.41 0.42 Processing Gain .............. 0.68 0.66 0.68 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.74 Total....................... 9.68 9.78 9.50 9.38 9.32 9.14 8.92 8.80 8.70 8.63 8.51 8.43 8.38 8.37 8.37 8.39 8.40 8.40 8.34 8.32 8.31 Imports (including SPR) .. Crude Oil..................... 5.89 5.76 5.64 5.95 6.11 6.39 6.67 6.94 7.20 7.38 7.68 8.03 8.20 8.39 8.43 8.59 8.58 8.59 8.66 8.70 8.71 Refined Products.............. 2.12 2.00 2.54 2.70 2.82 2.93 2.91 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.93 2.95 2.97 2.98 3.08 3.25 3.39 3.46 3.65 3.79 Total....................... 8.02 7.76 8.18 8.65 8.93 9.32 9.57 9.84 10.10 10.28 10.58 10.96 11.15 11.36 11.41 11.67 11.83 11.99 12.13 12.35 12.50 Exports Crude Oil..................... 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.08 Refined Products.............. 0.75 0.78 0.64 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.78 Total....................... 0.85 0.90 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.86 Net Imports (including SPR)..... 7.16 6.86 7.42 7.88 8.16 8.55 8.80 9.06 9.32 9.50 9.80 10.17 10.35 10.56 10.61 10.85 11.00 11.15 11.29 11.50 11.64 Primary Stock Changes Net Withdrawals .............. -0.09 -0.07 -0.05 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.03 -0.05 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 -0.04 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 SPR Fill Rate Additions(-) ... -0.02 0.05 0.00 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Primary Supply ........... 16.73 16.62 16.87 17.17 17.40 17.60 17.66 17.79 17.94 18.06 18.23 18.50 18.70 18.89 18.96 19.20 19.38 19.53 19.62 19.80 19.94 Unaccounted for Crude........... 0.26 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 Refined Petroleum Products Supplied Motor Gasoline ............... 7.23 7.16 7.16 7.32 7.41 7.47 7.49 7.55 7.59 7.65 7.68 7.77 7.84 7.91 7.94 8.04 8.10 8.17 8.20 8.27 8.32 Jet Fuel ..................... 1.52 1.45 1.48 1.53 1.58 1.62 1.62 1.65 1.69 1.71 1.74 1.79 1.82 1.85 1.88 1.92 1.96 1.97 1.99 2.02 2.05 Distillate Fuel............... 3.02 2.94 3.13 3.23 3.27 3.31 3.32 3.35 3.36 3.39 3.40 3.45 3.46 3.48 3.49 3.52 3.55 3.58 3.60 3.64 3.68 Residual Fuel................. 1.23 1.16 1.10 1.16 1.17 1.20 1.22 1.22 1.28 1.27 1.35 1.39 1.44 1.48 1.46 1.48 1.48 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.42 Other ........................ 3.98 4.03 4.19 4.13 4.16 4.20 4.20 4.22 4.22 4.25 4.26 4.30 4.34 4.37 4.39 4.45 4.49 4.54 4.57 4.62 4.66 Total....................... 16.99 16.74 17.07 17.37 17.59 17.80 17.86 17.99 18.14 18.26 18.43 18.70 18.90 19.09 19.16 19.40 19.58 19.73 19.81 20.00 20.13 Refined Petroleum Products Supplied Residential and Commercial.... 1.34 1.36 1.41 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.21 1.17 1.13 1.10 1.06 1.03 0.99 0.97 0.94 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.85 0.84 0.82 Industrial ................... 4.25 4.25 4.40 4.54 4.60 4.67 4.68 4.71 4.73 4.76 4.78 4.84 4.88 4.93 4.96 5.02 5.08 5.14 5.17 5.24 5.30 Transportation................ 10.81 10.64 10.73 11.01 11.19 11.35 11.41 11.53 11.65 11.77 11.87 12.09 12.24 12.38 12.47 12.66 12.81 12.93 13.03 13.18 13.31 Electric Utilities ........... 0.55 0.50 0.52 0.47 0.49 0.53 0.56 0.58 0.63 0.63 0.71 0.75 0.79 0.82 0.79 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.76 0.73 0.71 Total....................... 16.95 16.74 17.07 17.37 17.59 17.80 17.86 17.99 18.14 18.26 18.43 18.70 18.90 19.09 19.16 19.40 19.58 19.73 19.81 20.00 20.13 Discrepancy .................... 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net Disposition................. 16.99 16.82 17.07 17.37 17.60 17.80 17.86 17.99 18.14 18.26 18.43 18.70 18.90 19.09 19.16 19.40 19.58 19.73 19.82 20.00 20.14 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A9. Natural Gas Supply, Disposition, and Prices (Trillion Cubic Feet per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Supply, Disposition, and Prices ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Production Dry Gas Production ........... 17.61 17.43 17.69 17.95 18.00 18.29 18.27 18.51 18.75 18.97 19.19 19.48 19.78 19.91 19.90 19.99 19.82 19.73 19.60 19.50 19.30 Synthetic Natural Gas ........ 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 Net Imports..................... 1.41 1.48 1.62 1.88 2.08 2.25 2.41 2.56 2.68 2.70 2.72 2.76 2.84 2.92 3.05 3.10 3.20 3.25 3.30 3.30 3.31 Net Storage Withdrawals ........ -0.52 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Supply.................... 18.61 19.02 19.41 19.93 20.18 20.63 20.78 21.18 21.53 21.77 22.01 22.35 22.73 22.94 23.07 23.22 23.16 23.12 23.04 22.95 22.77 Consumption by Sector Residential................... 4.37 4.56 4.85 4.85 4.85 4.86 4.85 4.83 4.82 4.81 4.79 4.78 4.76 4.74 4.72 4.70 4.68 4.65 4.63 4.60 4.57 Commercial.................... 2.62 2.68 2.83 2.90 2.92 2.94 2.96 2.99 3.01 3.03 3.05 3.07 3.08 3.10 3.11 3.13 3.14 3.15 3.17 3.18 3.19 Industrial ................... 7.24 7.09 7.13 7.41 7.49 7.66 7.72 7.75 7.80 7.82 7.81 7.78 7.74 7.69 7.64 7.60 7.57 7.55 7.53 7.47 7.40 Electric Utilities ........... 2.79 2.70 2.76 2.96 3.08 3.29 3.37 3.74 3.95 4.14 4.36 4.69 5.05 5.32 5.50 5.69 5.67 5.66 5.62 5.60 5.54 Lease and Plant Fuel ......... 1.21 1.17 1.21 1.12 1.13 1.15 1.15 1.16 1.18 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.25 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.24 1.23 Pipeline Fuel................. 0.57 0.59 0.58 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 Transportation ............... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 Total....................... 18.80 18.79 19.36 19.84 20.08 20.53 20.68 21.12 21.42 21.66 21.89 22.23 22.59 22.82 22.95 23.10 23.05 23.00 22.92 22.82 22.67 Discrepancy .................... -0.19 0.23 0.05 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.06 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.14 0.12 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.10 Average Wellhead Price (1990 $ per thousand cubic feet)....... 1.72 1.63 1.74 1.86 1.91 2.02 2.08 2.19 2.32 2.52 2.72 2.91 3.12 3.32 3.50 3.70 3.83 4.00 4.16 4.42 4.65 Delivered Prices (1990 dollars per thousand cubic feet) Residential.................. 5.77 5.67 5.81 6.04 6.09 6.21 6.27 6.38 6.52 6.73 6.93 7.13 7.35 7.56 7.74 7.94 8.09 8.26 8.42 8.69 8.93 Commercial................... 5.01 4.92 5.03 5.16 5.21 5.33 5.39 5.50 5.64 5.85 6.05 6.25 6.47 6.68 6.86 7.07 7.21 7.38 7.55 7.81 8.06 Industrial................... 3.03 2.94 3.06 3.21 3.26 3.38 3.45 3.55 3.69 3.91 4.11 4.31 4.53 4.73 4.91 5.11 5.25 5.42 5.59 5.85 6.09 Electric Utilities........... 2.40 2.19 2.36 2.37 2.45 2.59 2.66 2.77 2.92 3.14 3.37 3.59 3.84 4.09 4.31 4.53 4.69 4.87 5.04 5.30 5.61 Transportation............... 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.44 5.49 5.61 5.67 5.78 5.91 6.12 6.32 6.53 6.75 6.95 7.14 7.34 7.48 7.66 7.82 8.09 8.33 Average .................. 3.94 3.87 4.03 4.14 4.18 4.28 4.33 4.41 4.53 4.73 4.92 5.10 5.30 5.50 5.68 5.88 6.02 6.20 6.37 6.63 6.89 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A10. Coal Supply, Disposition, and Prices (Million Short Tons per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Supply, Disposition, and Prices ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Production .. East of the Mississippi....... 630 619 640 639 648 656 658 658 659 663 671 674 677 686 705 723 755 783 813 840 869 West of the Mississippi....... 399 385 400 381 387 395 406 416 428 439 462 470 479 487 495 505 518 529 542 557 576 Total....................... 1029 1004 1040 1019 1034 1052 1064 1074 1087 1102 1133 1144 1156 1173 1201 1229 1272 1312 1355 1397 1445 Net Imports Imports........................ 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 Exports........................ 106 101 103 107 113 121 123 126 130 136 144 146 152 160 169 179 189 199 210 222 235 Total......................... -103 -98 -99 -103 -109 -116 -117 -120 -124 -130 -138 -139 -145 -152 -160 -170 -179 -189 -200 -211 -224 Net Storage Withdrawals ........ -26 -2 -7 2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -7 -8 -8 -8 Total Supply ................... 901 905 934 918 924 933 944 952 961 970 992 1002 1010 1019 1036 1054 1087 1116 1148 1178 1213 Consumption by Sector Residential and Commercial.... 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Industrial ................... 76 75 76 75 75 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 77 79 82 85 85 85 Coking Plants................. 40 34 34 34 34 35 34 34 33 32 32 31 31 31 30 30 29 29 28 28 27 Electric Utilities ........... 772 790 818 805 810 819 830 839 848 858 880 891 899 909 926 944 975 1002 1031 1062 1097 Total....................... 895 905 934 919 925 934 944 953 961 971 993 1003 1011 1020 1037 1055 1087 1116 1148 1178 1213 Discrepancy .................... 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 Average Minemouth Price .. (1990 dollars per short ton)... 21.76 22.21 22.37 22.57 23.27 24.01 24.99 24.61 25.33 25.93 26.64 27.03 27.47 27.29 28.00 28.71 29.10 29.70 30.35 30.92 31.63 Delivered Prices (1990 dollars per short ton) Residential and Commercial.... 48.39 50.71 51.47 52.23 53.30 53.70 54.56 55.17 56.08 57.18 57.85 58.37 59.12 60.30 61.70 63.01 63.92 65.09 65.68 66.89 67.83 Industrial.................... 33.59 36.01 36.54 36.83 37.42 38.20 38.86 38.83 39.60 40.18 40.89 41.37 41.74 42.37 43.14 43.88 44.46 45.06 45.78 46.43 47.39 Coking Plants................. 47.79 48.62 49.15 49.56 50.99 52.00 53.16 53.95 55.05 56.33 57.67 58.18 58.73 59.53 60.73 61.86 62.63 63.89 65.20 66.51 67.90 Electric Utilities............ 30.43 30.96 31.44 31.75 32.51 33.19 34.12 33.81 34.32 34.88 35.60 35.96 36.33 36.69 37.37 38.09 38.50 39.02 39.63 40.24 41.01 Average .................... 31.61 32.19 32.63 32.93 33.70 34.39 35.28 35.02 35.55 36.11 36.82 37.16 37.52 37.90 38.57 39.28 39.67 40.19 40.80 41.39 42.15 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A11. Yearly Supply and Disposition of Total Energy, Supply Detail (Quadrillion Btu per Year) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Total Supply ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ World Oil Price.................. 21.78 18.40 18.90 18.90 19.80 20.80 21.80 22.90 24.00 25.20 26.40 27.40 28.30 29.10 29.80 30.50 31.10 31.70 32.30 32.90 33.40 Domestic Production Oil............................ 17.90 18.11 17.63 17.24 17.10 16.70 16.30 15.98 15.76 15.61 15.40 15.16 15.05 15.01 15.03 15.00 15.02 15.01 14.93 14.85 14.83 Natural Gas.................... 18.27 18.07 18.34 18.62 18.66 18.96 18.94 19.19 19.43 19.66 19.89 20.19 20.50 20.64 20.64 20.74 20.58 20.49 20.35 20.26 20.06 Coal........................... 22.46 21.70 22.48 22.15 22.51 22.95 23.16 23.34 23.57 23.87 24.33 24.57 24.83 25.19 25.84 26.49 27.33 28.23 29.20 30.15 31.23 Nuclear Power.................. 6.19 6.25 6.23 6.43 6.55 6.54 6.71 6.75 6.79 7.00 6.97 7.05 7.07 7.07 7.09 7.06 7.09 7.08 7.07 7.01 6.92 Renewable Energy............... 6.62 6.89 7.20 7.15 7.34 7.52 7.70 7.90 8.10 8.30 8.51 8.68 8.87 9.07 9.28 9.51 9.67 9.85 10.01 10.19 10.36 Total Domestic Production.... 71.45 71.03 71.88 71.59 72.15 72.67 72.81 73.16 73.67 74.45 75.10 75.66 76.32 76.99 77.87 78.81 79.69 80.66 81.56 82.46 83.40 Imports Oil............................ 16.99 16.46 17.33 18.27 18.87 19.68 20.29 20.81 21.38 21.76 22.47 23.22 23.62 24.07 24.25 24.74 25.06 25.37 25.73 26.11 26.43 Natural Gas.................... 1.45 1.53 1.67 1.93 2.15 2.31 2.48 2.64 2.76 2.78 2.80 2.85 2.93 3.01 3.15 3.20 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.41 3.42 Coal........................... 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 Net Coal Coke Imports.......... 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.20 Electricity.................... 0.02 0.19 0.22 0.29 0.34 0.41 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.60 0.62 0.64 Alcohol Fuels.................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 Total Imports................ 18.53 18.28 19.38 20.68 21.53 22.61 23.43 24.14 24.85 25.27 26.02 26.87 27.39 27.96 28.32 28.91 29.38 29.78 30.24 30.66 31.03 Net Storage Withdrawals Oil............................ -0.19 -0.15 -0.10 -0.09 -0.07 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -0.06 -0.04 -0.06 -0.10 -0.07 -0.07 -0.02 -0.08 -0.04 -0.04 -0.02 -0.05 -0.04 Natural Gas.................... -0.54 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Coal........................... -0.56 -0.03 -0.15 0.05 -0.03 -0.05 -0.05 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.06 -0.05 -0.03 -0.04 -0.09 -0.10 -0.13 -0.15 -0.16 -0.16 -0.18 SPR Fill Rate Additions (-).... -0.03 0.10 0.00 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net Stock Withdrawals........ -1.32 -0.07 -0.25 -0.15 -0.21 -0.22 -0.18 -0.19 -0.20 -0.19 -0.23 -0.26 -0.10 -0.11 -0.12 -0.17 -0.18 -0.18 -0.18 -0.21 -0.21 Available Supply Oil............................ 34.70 34.42 34.86 35.43 35.89 36.32 36.57 36.74 37.08 37.33 37.81 38.29 38.60 39.01 39.26 39.66 40.03 40.34 40.64 40.92 41.23 Natural Gas.................... 19.19 19.61 20.01 20.55 20.80 21.27 21.42 21.84 22.19 22.44 22.69 23.04 23.43 23.65 23.78 23.94 23.88 23.84 23.75 23.66 23.47 Coal........................... 21.97 21.78 22.48 22.38 22.67 23.09 23.33 23.54 23.79 24.10 24.55 24.83 25.13 25.51 26.13 26.80 27.62 28.53 29.50 30.47 31.54 Nuclear Power.................. 6.19 6.25 6.23 6.43 6.55 6.54 6.71 6.75 6.79 7.00 6.97 7.05 7.07 7.07 7.09 7.06 7.09 7.08 7.07 7.01 6.92 Other Supply................... 6.65 7.08 7.42 7.44 7.67 7.94 8.15 8.35 8.56 8.76 8.98 9.17 9.37 9.59 9.81 10.09 10.27 10.47 10.66 10.86 11.06 SPR Fill Rate Additions (-).... -0.03 0.10 0.00 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Supply (before adjustments)................... 88.66 89.24 91.00 92.12 93.48 95.06 96.07 97.12 98.32 99.5 100.9 102.3 103.6 104.8 106.1 107.6 108.9 110.3 111.6 112.9 114.2 Adjustments.................... 0.93 0.04 0.34 0.26 0.24 0.22 0.20 0.21 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00 -0.03 -0.04 -0.08 -0.12 -0.18 -0.20 Total Supply..................... 89.59 89.28 91.35 92.38 93.72 95.28 96.26 97.33 98.46 99.7 101.0 102.3 103.6 104.8 106.1 107.5 108.8 110.2 111.5 112.7 114.0 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A12. Yearly Supply and Disposition of Total Energy, Disposition Detail (Quadrillion Btu per Year) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Total Disposition ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Exports Oil............................ 1.80 1.90 1.62 1.62 1.63 1.63 1.64 1.64 1.64 1.65 1.66 1.67 1.68 1.69 1.70 1.73 1.75 1.77 1.78 1.80 1.82 Coal........................... 2.77 2.65 2.70 2.79 2.94 3.15 3.19 3.26 3.38 3.53 3.72 3.78 3.94 4.14 4.38 4.64 4.89 5.16 5.44 5.75 6.09 Total Exports................ 4.57 4.55 4.32 4.41 4.57 4.79 4.83 4.90 5.02 5.18 5.38 5.45 5.62 5.83 6.08 6.37 6.64 6.92 7.22 7.54 7.90 Consumption Residential and Commercial Oil.......................... 2.52 2.54 2.65 2.54 2.44 2.35 2.27 2.19 2.12 2.05 1.99 1.93 1.86 1.80 1.76 1.71 1.67 1.63 1.59 1.55 1.52 Natural Gas.................. 7.20 7.46 7.92 7.98 8.01 8.04 8.05 8.06 8.07 8.08 8.08 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.08 8.07 8.06 8.05 8.04 8.02 8.00 Coal......................... 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 Renewable Energy............. 1.01 1.02 1.06 1.11 1.17 1.22 1.32 1.42 1.52 1.63 1.72 1.82 1.91 2.00 2.10 2.19 2.28 2.37 2.47 2.56 2.65 Electricity.................. 6.02 6.20 6.43 6.49 6.60 6.71 6.81 6.92 7.03 7.14 7.26 7.39 7.51 7.64 7.78 7.91 8.05 8.19 8.33 8.47 8.62 Total...................... 16.91 17.39 18.20 18.24 18.33 18.43 18.57 18.71 18.85 19.01 19.16 19.32 19.47 19.64 19.81 19.98 20.15 20.33 20.51 20.69 20.88 Industrial Oil.......................... 8.55 8.20 8.54 8.70 8.81 8.91 8.95 8.97 9.00 9.05 9.10 9.18 9.25 9.32 9.39 9.49 9.58 9.67 9.76 9.85 9.95 Natural Gas.................. 8.71 8.52 8.60 8.80 8.89 9.08 9.14 9.19 9.26 9.30 9.30 9.29 9.26 9.22 9.17 9.13 9.10 9.08 9.04 8.98 8.90 Coal......................... 2.77 2.59 2.61 2.58 2.60 2.62 2.61 2.59 2.58 2.56 2.55 2.54 2.53 2.51 2.50 2.51 2.52 2.57 2.62 2.60 2.59 Net Coal Coke Imports........ 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.20 Renewable Energy............. 2.01 2.06 2.15 2.19 2.21 2.25 2.26 2.27 2.29 2.31 2.32 2.33 2.33 2.35 2.37 2.40 2.41 2.43 2.45 2.47 2.50 Electricity.................. 3.20 3.16 3.27 3.25 3.33 3.43 3.51 3.60 3.69 3.79 3.90 4.01 4.12 4.22 4.32 4.43 4.54 4.65 4.76 4.87 4.97 Total...................... 25.25 24.54 25.22 25.58 25.90 26.36 26.55 26.72 26.92 27.12 27.29 27.47 27.64 27.78 27.91 28.12 28.33 28.59 28.83 28.97 29.11 Transportation Oil.......................... 21.47 21.11 21.35 21.84 22.23 22.55 22.72 22.91 23.16 23.40 23.68 24.04 24.34 24.63 24.89 25.20 25.51 25.76 26.03 26.26 26.52 Natural Gas.................. 0.59 0.61 0.60 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 Coal......................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Alcohols..................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 Electricity.................. 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 Total...................... 22.07 21.73 21.96 22.48 22.88 23.22 23.40 23.60 23.86 24.11 24.40 24.78 25.11 25.41 25.69 26.01 26.33 26.59 26.86 27.10 27.37 Total Non-Utility Consumption.. 64.23 63.67 65.38 66.31 67.11 68.01 68.52 69.03 69.63 70.24 70.85 71.58 72.21 72.82 73.41 74.11 74.81 75.51 76.20 76.77 77.36 Less Total Electricity Consumption.................... 9.23 9.37 9.71 9.75 9.94 10.15 10.34 10.53 10.74 10.95 11.18 11.41 11.65 11.88 12.12 12.37 12.62 12.88 13.13 13.38 13.63 Total Non-Utility Consumption (excluding electricity).... 55.00 54.30 55.67 56.55 57.17 57.86 58.18 58.49 58.90 59.29 59.67 60.16 60.56 60.94 61.29 61.74 62.19 62.63 63.07 63.39 63.72 Electric Utilities Oil............................ 1.25 1.13 1.20 1.08 1.12 1.20 1.29 1.32 1.43 1.44 1.63 1.70 1.79 1.87 1.82 1.83 1.81 1.78 1.74 1.68 1.61 Natural Gas.................... 2.88 2.78 2.85 3.05 3.17 3.39 3.47 3.85 4.07 4.26 4.49 4.83 5.21 5.49 5.67 5.86 5.85 5.83 5.79 5.77 5.71 Coal........................... 16.16 16.36 16.97 16.81 16.94 17.12 17.33 17.47 17.61 17.78 18.04 18.27 18.41 18.59 18.98 19.37 19.92 20.50 21.13 21.79 22.54 Nuclear Power.................. 6.19 6.25 6.23 6.43 6.55 6.54 6.71 6.75 6.79 7.00 6.97 7.05 7.07 7.07 7.09 7.06 7.09 7.08 7.07 7.01 6.92 Renewable Energy/Other......... 3.54 3.91 4.12 4.05 4.20 4.37 4.47 4.54 4.63 4.71 4.81 4.88 4.97 5.06 5.15 5.29 5.36 5.42 5.49 5.55 5.62 Total Utility Consumption.... 30.02 30.44 31.36 31.41 31.98 32.63 33.26 33.94 34.54 35.19 35.94 36.73 37.45 38.08 38.71 39.41 40.02 40.62 41.21 41.80 42.39 Total Disposition................ 89.59 89.28 91.35 92.38 93.72 95.28 96.26 97.33 98.46 99.7 101.0 102.3 103.6 104.8 106.1 107.5 108.8 110.2 111.5 112.7 114.0 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A13. Petroleum Product Prices (1990 Dollars per Barrel) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Sector and Fuel ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ World Oil Price................. 21.78 18.40 18.90 18.90 19.80 20.80 21.80 22.90 24.00 25.20 26.40 27.40 28.30 29.10 29.80 30.50 31.10 31.70 32.30 32.90 33.40 Delivered Sector Product Prices Residential and Commercial Distillate Fuel............... 40.67 35.59 36.21 35.84 36.43 37.05 38.07 39.21 40.34 41.58 42.85 43.87 44.93 45.74 46.42 47.13 47.72 48.32 48.92 49.53 49.99 Kerosene...................... 43.53 39.75 40.54 41.47 42.40 43.40 44.03 44.74 45.44 46.23 46.99 47.60 48.13 48.57 48.93 49.28 49.55 49.81 50.07 50.33 50.58 Motor Gasoline................ 49.10 47.15 48.31 48.01 48.59 49.89 51.19 52.60 54.07 55.57 57.08 58.39 59.40 60.43 61.33 62.59 63.31 64.04 64.89 65.61 66.23 Residual Fuel................. 18.81 17.87 18.78 19.09 20.28 21.57 22.68 23.86 25.10 26.39 27.73 28.83 29.83 30.72 31.45 32.21 32.84 33.48 34.09 34.72 35.34 Liquefied Petroleum Gas....... 35.88 32.54 32.68 32.63 32.80 32.93 33.83 34.81 35.80 36.88 37.95 38.83 39.64 40.37 41.01 41.65 42.20 42.77 43.32 43.90 44.40 Average..................... 37.83 33.50 34.30 34.11 34.64 35.20 36.16 37.23 38.30 39.46 40.65 41.61 42.54 43.31 43.96 44.63 45.19 45.76 46.33 46.92 47.39 Industrial Distillate Fuel............... 32.82 27.45 28.06 27.82 28.51 29.24 30.36 31.60 32.82 34.15 35.50 36.59 37.57 38.45 39.20 39.96 40.61 41.26 41.90 42.55 43.04 Motor Gasoline................ 49.16 47.06 48.21 47.91 48.49 49.79 51.09 52.50 53.97 55.47 56.98 58.30 59.31 60.33 61.24 62.50 63.22 63.95 64.80 65.53 66.14 Residual Fuel................. 16.90 16.54 17.45 17.88 19.07 20.36 21.46 22.65 23.88 25.16 26.50 27.60 28.60 29.49 30.22 30.98 31.61 32.24 32.86 33.48 34.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas....... 20.86 19.04 19.18 19.34 19.48 19.59 20.50 21.48 22.46 23.53 24.59 25.46 26.26 26.96 27.58 28.20 28.73 29.28 29.82 30.37 30.84 Petrochemical Feedstocks...... 26.09 26.52 26.88 26.58 27.14 27.74 28.85 30.06 31.28 32.58 33.91 34.98 35.96 36.82 37.56 38.31 38.94 39.58 40.21 40.84 41.30 Other Petroleum Products...... 34.34 32.85 33.69 34.08 35.26 36.52 37.39 38.35 39.30 40.34 41.38 42.25 43.04 43.73 44.34 44.95 45.47 45.99 46.51 47.04 47.47 Average..................... 29.90 27.89 28.69 28.18 28.98 29.80 30.77 31.83 32.90 34.03 35.18 36.11 36.95 37.69 38.32 38.96 39.50 40.04 40.59 41.13 41.56 Transportation Distillate Fuel............... 49.58 46.46 47.62 49.19 49.93 50.65 51.77 53.01 54.23 55.56 56.90 58.00 58.98 59.85 60.59 61.35 62.00 62.64 63.28 63.93 64.42 Motor Gasoline................ 49.08 47.13 48.31 48.02 48.62 49.91 51.21 52.62 54.09 55.59 57.10 58.41 59.42 60.44 61.34 62.60 63.32 64.05 64.90 65.62 66.23 Jet Fuel...................... 31.98 25.42 25.94 25.70 26.38 27.10 28.21 29.44 30.66 31.98 33.32 34.41 35.39 36.26 37.01 37.76 38.41 39.05 39.69 40.33 40.81 Residual Fuel................. 19.04 15.46 16.64 17.28 18.74 20.24 21.15 22.15 23.16 24.23 25.38 26.28 27.10 27.83 28.43 29.06 29.58 30.10 30.61 31.14 31.37 Liquefied Petroleum Gas....... 32.34 29.86 29.99 29.86 30.01 30.12 31.01 31.96 32.92 33.97 35.03 35.89 36.69 37.39 38.01 38.64 39.16 39.71 40.24 40.79 41.27 Other Petroleum Products...... 65.06 77.38 78.22 78.61 79.79 81.05 81.92 82.87 83.83 84.87 85.92 86.79 87.57 88.27 88.88 89.48 90.01 90.53 91.05 91.57 92.00 Average..................... 45.77 43.07 44.27 44.32 44.94 46.01 47.23 48.52 49.84 51.25 52.63 53.81 54.77 55.70 56.51 57.51 58.16 58.86 59.59 60.26 60.78 Electric Utilities Distillate Fuel............... 30.77 26.03 26.65 25.42 26.07 26.99 28.06 29.37 30.63 31.96 33.37 34.42 35.39 36.26 36.99 37.73 38.37 38.99 39.65 40.24 40.75 Residual Fuel................. 20.65 19.24 20.23 20.52 21.83 23.63 24.79 25.66 26.90 28.08 29.03 30.10 31.04 31.88 32.65 33.42 34.14 34.76 35.36 35.93 38.18 Average..................... 21.35 19.74 20.72 20.88 22.20 23.95 25.15 26.15 27.32 28.59 29.58 30.60 31.51 32.32 33.08 33.83 34.54 35.16 35.78 36.34 38.45 Refined Petroleum Product Prices Distillate Fuel............... 44.40 40.55 41.35 42.06 42.82 43.60 44.72 45.94 47.28 48.64 50.04 51.29 52.42 53.39 54.24 55.07 55.81 56.54 57.25 57.98 58.52 Kerosene...................... 43.53 39.75 40.54 41.47 42.40 43.40 44.03 44.74 45.44 46.23 46.99 47.60 48.13 48.57 48.93 49.28 49.55 49.81 50.07 50.33 50.58 Motor Gasoline................ 49.08 47.13 48.31 48.02 48.61 49.91 51.21 52.62 54.09 55.59 57.10 58.41 59.41 60.44 61.34 62.60 63.32 64.04 64.90 65.62 66.23 Jet Fuel...................... 31.98 25.42 25.94 25.70 26.38 27.10 28.21 29.44 30.66 31.98 33.32 34.41 35.39 36.26 37.01 37.76 38.41 39.05 39.69 40.33 40.81 Residual Fuel................. 19.26 17.39 18.54 18.79 20.11 21.69 22.81 23.81 25.06 26.21 27.41 28.47 29.44 30.29 30.97 31.69 32.30 32.88 33.41 33.94 35.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas....... 24.95 22.72 22.86 22.56 22.57 22.55 23.36 24.25 25.16 26.14 27.13 27.92 28.64 29.27 29.83 30.39 30.86 31.35 31.83 32.33 32.76 Petrochemical Feedstocks...... 26.09 26.52 26.88 26.58 27.14 27.74 28.85 30.06 31.28 32.58 33.91 34.98 35.96 36.82 37.56 38.31 38.94 39.58 40.21 40.84 41.30 Other Petroleum Products...... 36.05 35.33 36.17 36.86 38.09 39.38 40.30 41.29 42.29 43.39 44.48 45.39 46.22 46.96 47.62 48.27 48.84 49.41 49.97 50.54 51.02 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A14. Natural Gas Consumption by End-Use Sector and Region (Quadrillion Btu per Year) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER (Sector and Region) ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Residential New England................... 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 NY/NJ......................... 0.53 0.55 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.57 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.55 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.53 Mid-Atlantic.................. 0.44 0.46 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.46 South Atlantic................ 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.32 Midwest....................... 1.52 1.59 1.69 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.67 1.67 1.66 1.66 1.65 1.65 1.64 1.64 1.63 1.63 1.62 1.61 1.60 Southwest..................... 0.41 0.42 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.39 Central....................... 0.31 0.32 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 North Central................. 0.19 0.19 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 West.......................... 0.53 0.55 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 Northwest..................... 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 TOTAL....................... 4.50 4.70 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.01 5.00 4.98 4.97 4.95 4.94 4.92 4.91 4.89 4.87 4.85 4.82 4.80 4.77 4.74 4.71 Commercial New England................... 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 NY/NJ......................... 0.30 0.31 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 Mid-Atlantic.................. 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 South Atlantic................ 0.28 0.29 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 Midwest....................... 0.75 0.77 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.80 0.80 0.80 Southwest..................... 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.36 Central....................... 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 North Central................. 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 West.......................... 0.29 0.29 0.31 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42 Northwest..................... 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 TOTAL....................... 2.70 2.76 2.92 2.98 3.01 3.03 3.06 3.08 3.10 3.12 3.14 3.16 3.18 3.20 3.21 3.22 3.24 3.25 3.26 3.28 3.29 Industrial .. New England................... 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 NY/NJ......................... 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.20 Mid-Atlantic.................. 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.49 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.45 South Atlantic................ 0.78 0.76 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.75 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.72 0.72 0.71 Midwest....................... 1.26 1.23 1.22 1.24 1.26 1.27 1.29 1.30 1.30 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.31 1.30 Southwest..................... 3.47 3.40 3.36 3.40 3.43 3.45 3.47 3.47 3.47 3.45 3.44 3.41 3.38 3.35 3.32 3.30 3.28 3.27 3.25 3.22 3.19 Central....................... 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 North Central................. 0.16 0.16 0.18 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 West.......................... 0.49 0.48 0.54 0.62 0.63 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.73 Northwest..................... 0.26 0.25 0.28 0.32 0.33 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.38 0.38 TOTAL....................... 8.71 8.52 8.60 8.80 8.89 9.08 9.14 9.19 9.26 9.30 9.30 9.29 9.26 9.22 9.17 9.13 9.10 9.08 9.04 8.98 8.90 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A14. Natural Gas Consumption by End-Use Sector and Region (Continued) (Quadrillion Btu per Year) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER (Sector and Region) ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Electric Utilities .. New England................... 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.11 NY/NJ......................... 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.39 Mid-Atlantic.................. 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.13 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.22 South Atlantic................ 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.22 0.26 0.32 0.33 0.37 0.41 0.44 0.54 0.58 0.70 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.63 Midwest....................... 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.23 0.28 0.32 0.41 0.50 0.60 0.67 0.75 0.85 0.87 0.85 0.83 0.80 0.80 Southwest..................... 1.55 1.50 1.54 1.65 1.66 1.71 1.74 1.78 1.83 1.86 1.87 1.98 2.02 2.08 2.14 2.20 2.20 2.21 2.18 2.14 2.07 Central....................... 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.11 0.12 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.28 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 North Central................. 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.16 0.20 West.......................... 0.52 0.51 0.52 0.55 0.59 0.65 0.68 0.72 0.76 0.78 0.77 0.79 0.83 0.87 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.81 Northwest..................... 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.23 TOTAL....................... 2.88 2.78 2.85 3.05 3.17 3.39 3.47 3.85 4.07 4.26 4.49 4.83 5.21 5.49 5.67 5.86 5.85 5.83 5.79 5.77 5.71 All Sectors New England................... 0.41 0.42 0.44 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.50 0.51 NY/NJ......................... 1.31 1.32 1.37 1.42 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.42 1.43 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.51 1.49 1.49 1.49 Mid-Atlantic.................. 1.18 1.20 1.24 1.28 1.29 1.30 1.31 1.32 1.32 1.33 1.35 1.40 1.44 1.44 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 South Atlantic................ 1.68 1.68 1.71 1.67 1.72 1.79 1.80 1.83 1.88 1.90 1.99 2.03 2.13 2.21 2.17 2.15 2.10 2.08 2.07 2.05 2.01 Midwest....................... 3.58 3.64 3.77 3.75 3.78 3.81 3.82 4.02 4.07 4.14 4.22 4.31 4.40 4.46 4.53 4.62 4.63 4.61 4.57 4.53 4.50 Southwest..................... 5.72 5.63 5.67 5.83 5.87 5.94 5.99 6.03 6.08 6.10 6.09 6.16 6.18 6.20 6.23 6.26 6.25 6.24 6.19 6.12 6.01 Central....................... 0.88 0.88 0.91 0.99 1.02 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.15 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.18 1.20 1.17 1.17 1.16 1.16 1.16 North Central................. 0.49 0.49 0.53 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.61 0.63 0.63 0.66 0.68 0.68 0.72 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.75 0.79 0.83 West.......................... 1.82 1.83 1.95 2.08 2.14 2.27 2.32 2.37 2.44 2.48 2.48 2.51 2.55 2.59 2.64 2.63 2.62 2.59 2.60 2.59 2.56 Northwest..................... 0.47 0.47 0.51 0.63 0.63 0.67 0.69 0.72 0.75 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.82 0.83 0.83 0.84 TOTAL....................... 19.38 19.37 19.96 20.46 20.71 21.17 21.32 21.77 22.08 22.33 22.57 22.92 23.29 23.53 23.67 23.82 23.76 23.72 23.63 23.53 23.37 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A15. Natural Gas Delivered Prices by End-Use Sector and Region (1990 Dollars per Million Btu) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER (Sector and Region) ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Residential New England................... 7.15 7.04 7.19 7.44 7.49 7.61 7.67 7.78 7.92 8.13 8.33 8.54 8.75 8.96 9.15 9.35 9.49 9.67 9.83 10.10 10.34 NY/NJ......................... 6.82 6.71 6.86 7.10 7.15 7.27 7.33 7.44 7.58 7.79 7.99 8.19 8.41 8.62 8.80 9.00 9.15 9.32 9.49 9.75 10.00 Mid-Atlantic.................. 6.07 5.96 6.11 6.34 6.39 6.51 6.57 6.67 6.81 7.02 7.22 7.42 7.64 7.84 8.03 8.23 8.37 8.54 8.70 8.97 9.21 South Atlantic................ 5.88 5.78 5.92 6.14 6.19 6.31 6.37 6.47 6.60 6.80 7.00 7.20 7.41 7.61 7.78 7.98 8.12 8.28 8.44 8.70 8.94 Midwest....................... 5.17 5.07 5.21 5.42 5.47 5.58 5.64 5.75 5.88 6.09 6.28 6.48 6.70 6.90 7.08 7.28 7.42 7.58 7.75 8.01 8.25 Southwest..................... 5.37 5.27 5.41 5.62 5.67 5.78 5.84 5.94 6.07 6.27 6.46 6.66 6.86 7.06 7.23 7.43 7.56 7.73 7.89 8.14 8.37 Central....................... 4.56 4.47 4.60 4.80 4.85 4.96 5.02 5.13 5.26 5.46 5.66 5.86 6.07 6.27 6.44 6.64 6.78 6.95 7.11 7.36 7.60 North Central................. 4.75 4.66 4.79 4.99 5.04 5.15 5.21 5.31 5.44 5.64 5.84 6.03 6.24 6.44 6.61 6.81 6.94 7.11 7.27 7.52 7.76 West.......................... 5.61 5.50 5.65 5.87 5.92 6.04 6.10 6.20 6.34 6.55 6.75 6.95 7.17 7.37 7.56 7.76 7.90 8.07 8.24 8.50 8.74 Northwest..................... 5.39 5.32 5.44 5.61 5.63 5.71 5.74 5.80 5.89 6.03 6.16 6.29 6.42 6.55 6.66 6.78 6.85 6.94 7.03 7.18 7.32 TOTAL....................... 5.60 5.50 5.64 5.85 5.90 6.02 6.08 6.19 6.32 6.52 6.72 6.92 7.13 7.33 7.51 7.71 7.84 8.01 8.17 8.43 8.66 Commercial New England................... 6.07 5.98 6.10 6.22 6.27 6.39 6.45 6.56 6.69 6.90 7.11 7.31 7.53 7.74 7.92 8.13 8.27 8.44 8.61 8.87 9.12 NY/NJ......................... 5.54 5.45 5.57 5.69 5.74 5.86 5.92 6.03 6.16 6.37 6.57 6.78 7.00 7.20 7.39 7.59 7.73 7.90 8.07 8.33 8.58 Mid-Atlantic.................. 5.30 5.21 5.32 5.44 5.50 5.61 5.67 5.78 5.92 6.13 6.32 6.53 6.74 6.95 7.13 7.33 7.47 7.65 7.81 8.07 8.32 South Atlantic................ 5.14 5.05 5.16 5.28 5.32 5.44 5.50 5.60 5.73 5.94 6.13 6.33 6.54 6.74 6.92 7.11 7.25 7.41 7.58 7.83 8.07 Midwest....................... 4.74 4.65 4.76 4.88 4.93 5.05 5.11 5.21 5.34 5.55 5.75 5.95 6.16 6.36 6.54 6.74 6.88 7.05 7.21 7.47 7.71 Southwest..................... 4.38 4.30 4.41 4.52 4.57 4.68 4.74 4.84 4.97 5.17 5.36 5.56 5.77 5.96 6.14 6.33 6.47 6.63 6.79 7.04 7.27 Central....................... 3.82 3.73 3.84 3.96 4.01 4.12 4.18 4.28 4.42 4.62 4.82 5.01 5.22 5.43 5.60 5.80 5.94 6.10 6.27 6.52 6.76 North Central................. 4.27 4.18 4.29 4.40 4.45 4.56 4.62 4.73 4.86 5.06 5.25 5.45 5.65 5.85 6.03 6.22 6.36 6.52 6.68 6.93 7.17 West.......................... 5.04 4.95 5.06 5.18 5.23 5.35 5.41 5.52 5.65 5.86 6.06 6.26 6.48 6.69 6.87 7.07 7.21 7.38 7.55 7.81 8.06 Northwest..................... 4.34 4.27 4.37 4.47 4.51 4.59 4.63 4.71 4.81 4.96 5.11 5.25 5.41 5.56 5.69 5.83 5.93 6.05 6.16 6.35 6.52 TOTAL....................... 4.86 4.77 4.88 5.00 5.05 5.17 5.23 5.33 5.47 5.67 5.87 6.07 6.28 6.48 6.66 6.85 6.99 7.16 7.32 7.58 7.81 Industrial .. New England................... 4.32 4.24 4.35 4.47 4.52 4.64 4.70 4.81 4.95 5.16 5.36 5.56 5.78 5.99 6.18 6.38 6.52 6.69 6.86 7.13 7.37 NY/NJ......................... 4.42 4.33 4.44 4.56 4.62 4.73 4.79 4.90 5.04 5.25 5.45 5.66 5.87 6.08 6.26 6.47 6.61 6.78 6.95 7.21 7.46 Mid-Atlantic.................. 3.86 3.77 3.88 4.00 4.05 4.17 4.23 4.34 4.48 4.68 4.88 5.09 5.30 5.51 5.69 5.89 6.03 6.20 6.37 6.63 6.88 South Atlantic................ 3.36 3.28 3.39 3.50 3.55 3.67 3.72 3.83 3.96 4.16 4.36 4.56 4.77 4.97 5.14 5.34 5.48 5.64 5.80 6.06 6.30 Midwest....................... 3.96 3.87 3.98 4.10 4.15 4.27 4.33 4.43 4.57 4.77 4.97 5.17 5.38 5.59 5.76 5.96 6.10 6.27 6.43 6.69 6.93 Southwest..................... 2.11 2.03 2.14 2.25 2.30 2.41 2.47 2.57 2.70 2.90 3.09 3.29 3.50 3.69 3.87 4.06 4.20 4.36 4.52 4.77 5.00 Central....................... 3.14 3.05 3.16 3.28 3.33 3.44 3.50 3.61 3.74 3.94 4.14 4.34 4.55 4.75 4.93 5.12 5.26 5.43 5.59 5.85 6.08 North Central................. 3.24 3.16 3.27 3.38 3.43 3.54 3.60 3.71 3.84 4.04 4.23 4.43 4.63 4.83 5.01 5.20 5.34 5.50 5.66 5.91 6.15 West.......................... 3.75 3.66 3.77 3.89 3.94 4.06 4.12 4.23 4.36 4.57 4.77 4.98 5.19 5.40 5.58 5.78 5.92 6.09 6.26 6.52 6.77 Northwest..................... 2.75 2.66 2.81 2.98 3.01 3.16 3.20 3.28 3.40 3.56 3.70 3.85 4.00 4.14 4.27 4.40 4.50 4.61 4.72 4.90 5.06 TOTAL....................... 2.94 2.86 2.97 3.11 3.16 3.28 3.34 3.45 3.58 3.79 3.98 4.18 4.39 4.59 4.76 4.96 5.09 5.26 5.42 5.67 5.91 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A15. Natural Gas Delivered Prices by End-Use Sector and Region (Continued) (1990 Dollars per Million Btu) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER (Sector and Region) ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Electric Utilities New England................... 2.53 2.31 2.49 2.69 2.74 2.86 2.92 3.03 3.17 3.38 3.58 3.79 4.01 4.22 4.50 4.71 4.92 5.15 5.36 5.60 5.91 NY/NJ......................... 2.41 2.21 2.38 2.67 2.76 2.88 2.95 3.06 3.20 3.41 3.62 3.82 4.03 4.24 4.42 4.62 4.75 4.92 5.09 5.35 5.60 Mid-Atlantic.................. 2.53 2.32 2.50 3.07 3.13 3.27 3.36 3.47 3.60 3.82 3.99 4.25 4.50 4.70 4.89 5.09 5.24 5.42 5.59 5.85 6.10 South Atlantic................ 2.53 2.31 2.49 2.28 2.37 2.65 2.71 2.81 2.98 3.17 3.33 3.51 3.73 4.03 4.22 4.43 4.59 4.78 4.95 5.22 5.48 Midwest....................... 2.56 2.35 2.52 2.44 2.64 2.79 2.80 2.74 2.88 3.08 3.36 3.70 4.00 4.26 4.50 4.73 4.90 5.09 5.26 5.53 5.78 Southwest..................... 2.28 2.09 2.25 2.10 2.14 2.26 2.31 2.42 2.55 2.75 2.99 3.19 3.41 3.65 3.86 4.09 4.26 4.45 4.62 4.88 5.12 Central....................... 2.20 2.01 2.17 2.29 2.33 2.44 2.51 2.61 2.75 2.95 3.14 3.34 3.55 3.78 4.04 4.24 4.39 4.56 4.72 5.00 5.23 North Central................. 2.56 2.35 2.52 2.62 2.67 2.78 2.86 2.93 3.08 3.24 3.42 3.58 3.90 4.10 4.28 4.55 4.70 4.87 5.06 5.24 5.44 West.......................... 2.31 2.11 2.28 2.70 2.81 2.93 3.00 3.10 3.24 3.44 3.64 3.85 4.06 4.27 4.46 4.60 4.70 4.82 4.93 5.07 5.69 Northwest..................... 1.56 1.49 1.53 2.01 2.07 2.18 2.33 2.57 2.78 3.03 3.23 3.43 3.63 3.85 4.06 4.28 4.44 4.62 4.80 5.07 5.33 TOTAL....................... 2.33 2.13 2.29 2.30 2.38 2.51 2.58 2.69 2.83 3.04 3.27 3.49 3.73 3.97 4.18 4.39 4.55 4.73 4.89 5.14 5.44 All Sectors .. New England................... 5.71 5.65 5.82 6.00 6.05 6.19 6.26 6.37 6.50 6.71 6.93 7.15 7.37 7.58 7.71 7.91 7.99 8.10 8.21 8.47 8.67 NY/NJ......................... 5.22 5.15 5.32 5.50 5.57 5.72 5.78 5.87 5.98 6.17 6.36 6.55 6.75 6.93 7.09 7.26 7.36 7.49 7.68 7.94 8.16 Mid-Atlantic.................. 4.92 4.86 5.02 5.18 5.23 5.34 5.40 5.49 5.62 5.82 5.98 6.12 6.29 6.49 6.67 6.87 7.01 7.17 7.33 7.59 7.82 South Atlantic................ 4.03 3.96 4.12 4.28 4.28 4.35 4.40 4.47 4.57 4.74 4.85 5.01 5.14 5.32 5.52 5.73 5.90 6.07 6.24 6.50 6.77 Midwest....................... 4.62 4.54 4.68 4.85 4.89 5.00 5.06 5.04 5.15 5.32 5.48 5.65 5.83 6.01 6.17 6.34 6.48 6.65 6.82 7.09 7.33 Southwest..................... 2.51 2.41 2.56 2.60 2.64 2.75 2.80 2.90 3.03 3.22 3.43 3.62 3.83 4.03 4.22 4.42 4.57 4.74 4.90 5.16 5.40 Central....................... 3.76 3.68 3.82 3.84 3.87 3.90 3.95 4.04 4.15 4.34 4.52 4.70 4.91 5.11 5.29 5.46 5.63 5.80 5.96 6.22 6.46 North Central................. 4.08 4.01 4.12 4.18 4.21 4.31 4.37 4.44 4.58 4.72 4.88 5.08 5.24 5.45 5.63 5.83 5.97 6.14 6.26 6.43 6.60 West.......................... 4.08 3.99 4.14 4.33 4.37 4.44 4.48 4.57 4.68 4.87 5.08 5.28 5.47 5.66 5.83 6.02 6.16 6.33 6.48 6.71 7.10 Northwest..................... 3.38 3.33 3.44 3.41 3.45 3.55 3.59 3.66 3.77 3.93 4.09 4.24 4.41 4.57 4.71 4.87 4.97 5.10 5.22 5.43 5.61 TOTAL....................... 3.82 3.75 3.91 4.02 4.06 4.15 4.20 4.28 4.39 4.59 4.77 4.95 5.14 5.34 5.51 5.70 5.84 6.01 6.17 6.43 6.69 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A16. Residential Sector Key Indicators and End-Use Consumption (Quadrillion BTU per year, Unless otherwise noted) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Key Indicators and Consumption ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Key Indicators Total Housing (millions)......... 93.4 94.1 95.0 96.0 97.2 98.3 99.4 100.4 101.3 102.3 103.2 104.2 105.1 106.1 106.9 107.8 108.6 109.3 110.1 110.9 111.7 Energy Consumption per Household (MMBtu)............... 109.4 112.3 116.7 115.3 114.0 112.8 112.0 111.3 110.7 110.2 109.7 109.4 109.1 108.8 108.6 108.4 108.2 108.1 108.1 108.0 107.9 End-Use Consumption Distillate Space Heating................... 0.86 0.87 0.95 0.90 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.74 0.71 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.58 0.56 0.54 0.52 0.50 0.49 0.47 0.46 Other Uses...................... 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 Total Distillate.............. 1.00 1.00 1.07 1.01 0.96 0.91 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.74 0.70 0.67 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.48 Natural Gas Space Heating................... 3.14 3.27 3.47 3.46 3.46 3.45 3.43 3.42 3.40 3.38 3.37 3.35 3.34 3.32 3.31 3.29 3.27 3.25 3.23 3.21 3.19 Water Heating................... 1.06 1.12 1.20 1.22 1.24 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.29 1.29 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.29 1.29 1.28 1.27 1.27 1.26 Other Uses...................... 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 Total Natural Gas............. 4.50 4.70 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.01 5.00 4.98 4.97 4.95 4.94 4.92 4.91 4.89 4.87 4.85 4.82 4.80 4.77 4.74 4.71 Other Fuels....................... 0.61 0.63 0.61 0.58 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.47 0.46 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.35 Renewables........................ 0.96 0.96 0.99 1.03 1.07 1.12 1.20 1.28 1.35 1.44 1.51 1.59 1.68 1.75 1.84 1.91 1.99 2.07 2.15 2.23 2.31 Electricity Space Heating.................... 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 Cooling.......................... 0.51 0.53 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59 Water Heating.................... 0.39 0.42 0.45 0.47 0.49 0.51 0.52 0.54 0.55 0.57 0.58 0.60 0.61 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.70 0.72 0.74 0.76 Other Uses....................... 1.92 1.99 2.06 2.07 2.09 2.11 2.13 2.16 2.18 2.20 2.23 2.25 2.28 2.31 2.34 2.36 2.39 2.41 2.44 2.47 2.50 Total Electricity.............. 3.14 3.28 3.40 3.43 3.46 3.51 3.54 3.58 3.61 3.65 3.70 3.74 3.79 3.84 3.89 3.94 3.98 4.03 4.08 4.13 4.18 Total Consumption................. 10.22 10.57 11.09 11.07 11.08 11.10 11.13 11.17 11.22 11.27 11.33 11.39 11.47 11.54 11.61 11.68 11.75 11.82 11.90 11.98 12.06 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A17. Commercial Sector Key Indicators and End-Use Consumption (Quadrillion BTU per year, Unless otherwise noted) _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Key Indicators and Consumption ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Key Indicators Total Employment (millions)...... 110.3 109.9 111.1 113.3 115.7 117.7 119.1 120.2 121.4 122.7 124.3 125.9 127.1 128.2 129.2 130.5 131.8 133.1 134.1 134.9 135.7 Total Floorspace (bill. sq. ft.). 62.9 64.1 65.3 66.5 67.8 69.0 70.3 71.6 73.0 74.3 75.6 77.0 78.4 79.7 81.1 82.5 83.9 85.3 86.7 88.2 89.6 Energy Consumption per Square Foot (MBtu).......... 106.3 106.2 108.8 107.8 107.0 106.3 105.7 105.1 104.6 104.1 103.6 103.0 102.2 101.6 101.1 100.5 100.1 99.7 99.2 98.8 98.4 End-Use Consumption Distillate Space Heating................... 0.47 0.47 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.43 0.42 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.38 Other Uses...................... 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Total Distillate............... 0.51 0.51 0.55 0.55 0.54 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.40 Natural Gas Space Heating................... 1.76 1.80 1.90 1.94 1.95 1.96 1.97 1.98 1.99 1.99 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.01 2.01 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.99 1.98 1.97 Cooling......................... 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 Other Uses...................... 0.73 0.75 0.80 0.82 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.01 1.02 1.03 Total Natural Gas.............. 2.70 2.76 2.92 2.98 3.01 3.03 3.06 3.08 3.10 3.12 3.14 3.16 3.18 3.20 3.21 3.22 3.24 3.25 3.26 3.28 3.29 Other Fuels...................... 0.54 0.55 0.53 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.36 0.36 Renewables....................... 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.21 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.29 0.30 0.32 0.33 0.34 Electricity Space Heating................... 0.53 0.54 0.56 0.57 0.59 0.60 0.62 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.70 0.72 0.74 0.77 0.80 0.83 0.86 0.89 0.93 0.96 1.00 Cooling......................... 0.74 0.75 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.83 0.85 0.87 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 Lighting........................ 1.13 1.14 1.18 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.26 1.28 1.30 1.32 1.35 1.37 1.39 1.42 1.44 1.47 1.49 1.51 1.54 1.56 1.59 Other Uses...................... 0.47 0.48 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.59 0.60 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.66 0.67 0.69 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.75 Total Electricity.............. 2.87 2.92 3.03 3.07 3.13 3.20 3.27 3.34 3.41 3.49 3.56 3.64 3.72 3.80 3.89 3.98 4.07 4.16 4.25 4.34 4.44 Total Consumption................. 6.68 6.81 7.10 7.17 7.25 7.34 7.43 7.53 7.63 7.73 7.83 7.93 8.00 8.10 8.20 8.30 8.40 8.51 8.61 8.71 8.82 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A18. Industrial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Key Indicators and Consumption ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Key Indicators Value of Gross Output (billion 1982 $) Manufacturing................... 2401 2350 2487 2568 2644 2721 2790 2853 2934 3027 3124 3219 3301 3375 3452 3548 3642 3732 3811 3879 3957 Non-manufacturing............... 830 813 837 870 901 926 938 946 959 974 989 1007 1023 1038 1048 1065 1078 1094 1109 1124 1140 Total.......................... 3231 3163 3325 3438 3545 3647 3728 3799 3893 4002 4114 4226 4324 4413 4501 4613 4719 4826 4920 5004 5096 Consumption Consumption per Unit Output (MBTU per 1982 dollars) Distillate...................... 0.34 0.31 0.33 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27 Liquefied Petroleum Gas......... 0.46 0.50 0.48 0.52 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 Petrochemical Feedstocks........ 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 Residual Fuel................... 0.18 0.19 0.16 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 Other Petroleum................. 1.27 1.20 1.21 1.06 1.03 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.73 Natural Gas..................... 2.69 2.69 2.60 2.56 2.51 2.49 2.45 2.42 2.38 2.32 2.26 2.20 2.14 2.09 2.04 1.98 1.93 1.88 1.84 1.79 1.75 Metallurgical Coal and Coke..... 0.33 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.18 Steam Coal...................... 0.53 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.39 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.37 0.37 Renewables...................... 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 Electricity..................... 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 Total......................... 7.81 7.76 7.60 7.44 7.31 7.23 7.12 7.03 6.92 6.78 6.63 6.50 6.39 6.29 6.20 6.10 6.00 5.92 5.86 5.79 5.71 Consumption (Quadrillion BTU per year) Distillate...................... 1.08 0.99 1.09 1.23 1.25 1.28 1.29 1.30 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.32 1.33 1.33 1.34 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.39 Liquefied Petroleum Gas......... 1.49 1.57 1.60 1.77 1.82 1.87 1.89 1.90 1.91 1.94 1.97 2.00 2.03 2.07 2.10 2.14 2.18 2.22 2.25 2.29 2.33 Motor Gasoline.................. 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 Petrochemical Feedstocks........ 1.09 1.06 1.10 1.10 1.12 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.26 1.28 1.31 1.34 1.36 1.40 1.43 1.46 1.49 1.52 1.55 Residual Fuel................... 0.58 0.60 0.53 0.76 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.70 Other Petroleum................. 4.11 3.79 4.02 3.64 3.66 3.66 3.66 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.66 3.67 3.68 3.68 3.69 3.69 3.70 3.70 3.71 3.71 Natural Gas..................... 8.71 8.52 8.60 8.80 8.89 9.08 9.14 9.19 9.26 9.30 9.30 9.29 9.26 9.22 9.17 9.13 9.10 9.08 9.04 8.98 8.90 Metallurgical Coal and Coke..... 1.07 0.92 0.96 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.93 Steam Coal...................... 1.71 1.69 1.70 1.67 1.68 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.72 1.74 1.81 1.87 1.87 1.86 Renewables...................... 2.01 2.06 2.15 2.19 2.21 2.25 2.26 2.27 2.29 2.31 2.32 2.33 2.33 2.35 2.37 2.40 2.41 2.43 2.45 2.47 2.50 Electricity..................... 3.20 3.16 3.27 3.25 3.33 3.43 3.51 3.60 3.69 3.79 3.90 4.01 4.12 4.22 4.32 4.43 4.54 4.65 4.76 4.87 4.97 Total.......................... 25.25 24.54 25.22 25.58 25.90 26.36 26.55 26.72 26.92 27.12 27.29 27.47 27.64 27.78 27.91 28.12 28.33 28.59 28.83 28.97 29.11 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Table A19. Transportation Sector Key Indicators and End-Use Consumption _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ AEO92B.D0923913 AEO92B REFERENCE CASE--RERUN OF REPORT WRITER Key Indicators and Consumption ³_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³ ³1990 ³1991 ³1992 ³1993 ³1994 ³1995 ³1996 ³1997 ³1998 ³1999 ³2000 ³2001 ³2002 ³2003 ³2004 ³2005 ³2006 ³2007 ³2008 ³2009 ³2010 ___________________________________³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____³_____ +_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Key Indicators Level of Travel Index (1989= 1.0) Light Duty Vehicles............. 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.11 1.13 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.22 1.24 1.26 1.29 1.31 1.34 1.36 1.38 1.40 Freight Trucks.................. 1.00 0.98 1.02 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.13 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.22 1.25 1.27 1.29 1.31 1.34 1.36 1.39 1.41 1.44 1.46 Air............................. 0.99 1.01 1.07 1.13 1.19 1.24 1.29 1.33 1.38 1.44 1.51 1.57 1.63 1.68 1.74 1.81 1.88 1.95 2.01 2.07 2.13 Rail............................ 1.00 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.17 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.25 1.26 1.28 1.30 Marine.......................... 0.99 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.17 1.19 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.25 Energy Efficiency Indicators New Car MPG...................... 28.10 28.32 28.53 28.74 28.97 29.19 29.71 30.23 30.76 31.28 31.80 32.35 32.88 33.42 33.93 34.44 34.88 35.33 35.78 36.23 36.68 New Light Truck MPG.............. 20.80 20.96 21.11 21.27 21.43 21.59 21.96 22.33 22.71 23.08 23.45 23.83 24.15 24.47 24.78 25.08 25.36 25.63 25.90 26.18 26.45 Light Duty Fleet MPG............. 18.58 18.73 18.87 19.01 19.15 19.29 19.43 19.59 19.75 19.93 20.11 20.31 20.51 20.71 20.92 21.12 21.33 21.53 21.73 21.93 22.13 Aircraft Efficiency Index........ 1.01 1.03 1.04 1.06 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.25 1.27 1.29 1.31 1.33 1.35 1.37 Freight Truck Efficiency Index... 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.13 1.13 Rail Efficiency Index............ 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.07 Domestic Shipping Efficiency Index........................... 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 Energy Use by Mode (Quadrillion Btu) Light Duty Vehicles.............. 11.55 11.50 11.53 11.74 11.88 11.99 12.07 12.14 12.23 12.33 12.42 12.54 12.66 12.77 12.88 12.99 13.11 13.22 13.31 13.40 13.49 Freight Trucks................... 4.93 4.79 4.97 5.10 5.21 5.31 5.37 5.40 5.46 5.53 5.60 5.72 5.81 5.90 5.97 6.05 6.14 6.24 6.32 6.40 6.49 Air.............................. 3.21 3.04 3.12 3.23 3.33 3.41 3.42 3.48 3.56 3.59 3.68 3.77 3.84 3.90 3.97 4.05 4.13 4.15 4.21 4.26 4.32 Rail............................. 0.48 0.47 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.59 Marine........................... 1.13 1.15 1.07 1.10 1.13 1.15 1.18 1.20 1.22 1.25 1.27 1.30 1.32 1.35 1.37 1.39 1.42 1.45 1.47 1.49 1.51 Pipeline Fuel.................... 0.59 0.61 0.60 0.63 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.73 Other............................ 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 Total........................... 22.07 21.73 21.96 22.48 22.88 23.22 23.40 23.60 23.86 24.11 24.40 24.78 25.11 25.41 25.69 26.01 26.33 26.59 26.86 27.10 27.37 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________