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FXUS04 KWBC 110818
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
318 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009
PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 11/1200 UTC THRU FEB 14/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
...WRN U.S....
VIGOROUS CLOSED UPPER LO NOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST IS FCST TO DROP
SEWD AND WEAKEN WITH TIME. DESPITE RATHER STRONG MID AND UPPER
LVL FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM...MSTR AVBLTY IS MARGINAL AND FOR THAT
REASON EXPECT GNLY LGT TO MDT PCPN TOTALS WITH THE SYSTEM. MODEL
QPFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND TOTALS THEREFORE
CHOSE TO STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
...CONCERNING THE EJECTION OF THE SRN PLAINS CLOSED UPPER LO...
MODELS QPFS ARE CLOSE BUT NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT HANDLING THE
SWATH OF HVY RNFL TOTALS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM FM THE MID MS
VLY NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN GNRL..MOST MODELS ARE IN
BTWN THE SRN MOST SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND THE NRN MOST SOLUTION
OF THE GEM REGIONAL. THE NAMS SOLUTION IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY
THE 10/1200 UTC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND CMC MODELS AS FAR AS THE
AXIS OF PCPN WAS CONCERNED. FOR NOW WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION
FOR THE PRELIM DAY1 QPF THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CAN FIND REASONS TO
SUPPORT BOTH THE MORE NRN AND MORE SRN SCENARIOS.
IN ADDITION...SHWRS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ASOCTD FRONTAL BAND AS
IT PRESSES EWD FM THE MID AND LWR MS VLY TO THE EAST COAST THRU
THE FCST PD. THE GFS AND GEM REGIONAL PLUS THE 10/1200 UTC ECMWF
AND CMC MODELS ALL ARGUE FOR WIDESPREAD LGT TO MDT PCPN WITH THIS
BNDRY BUT PICKING AREAS WHERE HEAVIER SHWRS COULD FOCUS IS AN IFFY
PROPOSITION AT BEST. THE NAM WAS THE DRIEST OF MODELS HERE WITH
JUST ABOUT EVERY OTHER MODELS FCSTG HEAVIER AMTS MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLING THE GFS SCENARIO AND LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE
MOMENT.
FINALLY...TRACK OF THE UPPER CNTR AND SFC LO WOULD SUGGEST
INTENSIFYING PCPN LATE IN THE PD OVR SRN NEW ENG AS ATLC MSTR
BECOMES INVOLVED.
DAY 2...
...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...
LGT/MDT AMTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH...FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS NRN
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENG...ARE EXPECTED AS THE H5 LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. A STRONG WLY FETCH WLY FETCH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BOLSTER THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY IN THE LEE OF
LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO. WITH THE NCEP MODELS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...A BLEND WAS USED FOR THE HPC FORECAST.
...CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
LGT AMTS OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE WRN CONUS ON DAY 1 WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES
EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THRU THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST...THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF DID NOT PRESENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS AND
THEREFORE A BLEND WAS FOLLOWED.
...OREGON/NRN CALIFORNIA...
YET ANOTHER MID/UPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP SEWD INTO THE
REGION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BRINGING LGT/MDT AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN A HALF INCH TO THE REGION. MODELS WERE ONCE AGAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND THEREFORE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF WAS
FOLLOWED.
DAY 3...
...CENTRAL PLAINS THRU THE MID MISSISSIPPI...
AS THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED SHRTWV CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN EMERGES ON
THE CTRL PLAINS ON DAY 3...A SWATH OF OF LGT/MDT AMTS...MAINLY ON
THE ORDER OF 0.25-0.75 INCH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT AMTS SHOULD FOCUS ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONG THETA-E
ADV AND LOW-MID LVL DEFORMATION. BEGAN TO DISCOUNT THE GFS AT
THIS POINT IN THE PERIOD AS IT BECOMES THE LONE OPERATIONAL MODEL
FROM THE 00Z GUIDANCE TO AMPLIFY THE H5 TROF.
...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT QPF SPREAD IN RELATION TO A
WEAK SHRTWV CROSSING THE GULF COAST STATES. OF THE 00Z MODELS THE
GFS SHOWED THE MOST ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH AN INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH FAVORABLE UPR DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A
SWATH OF MDT/HVY RAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH GENERALLY DEPICTED SPOTTY LIGHT
AMTS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED WETTER...BUT AMTS ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE SPREAD AND WEAK NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY
PARTICULAR SOLUTION AT THIS POINT AND THEREFORE TOOK AN ENS
APPROACH WITH AMTS.
...WESTERN U.S....
MODELS SHOW ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS
CA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAKENING CTR
ACROSS ORE/NRN CA AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF LOWS APPROACHES THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LEANED MORE CLOSELY TOWARD THE
ECMWF/CMC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE UKMET ARE A
LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MEAN TROF THAN
THE NCEP MODELS.
KORTY/PEREIRA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 12/12Z
0.01 489667 484656 480645 478641 473638 472636 468634 466631
463630 458629 445631 439632 432635 427637 422639 408649
397660 386672 375686 368693 364699 354710 348718 340730
333742 327753 320766 314778 300801 294812 289824 283845
281852 279854 275857 270861 267866 267872 270877 275881
281881 282886 281893 280899 281903 283905 286906 290905
295902 297902 297905 296912 296918 296923 298926 301928
305929 313926 318923 325921 342915 349914 354915 358916
359919 361925 360939 358945 355953 350968 349971 348976
351983 356988 360990 365990 373988 379985 384982 388977
395967 399960 402952 406938 406934 408930 412925 421915
426908 430900 433894 437886 441886 445886 450889 453894
455902 455905 454910 448915 444921 443929 445937 447943
449944 451957 454969 456976 461983 469996 478007 486015
498022 503027 511027 514026 516022 520016 522011 522005
523991 526973 526966 525957 523943 518923 517912 515902
510893 508887 506881 504875 500865 496858 494845 493833
491821 491797 493781 494773 494763 495743 495726 495708
495703 494696 493685 489667
0.01 534215 533205 530198 526190 526187 528185 531179 531170
527164 522158 519153 514150 510148 507149 502145 484128
477124 472124 469130 467133 465132 457124 458107 456101
453095 450093 446093 439095 432092 427089 427096 425100
422100 414099 412099 414089 414084 414079 417074 418063
416060 413057 405053 400055 396060 390068 388074 390079
392087 395089 398088 401086 404085 405088 404093 403099
400102 398099 395098 392098 395109 392116 394121 390129
388132 385133 382135 377138 372142 369148 364152 363153
362157 366162 368167 370172 373176 371180 367177 360177
352180 342185 340189 340193 340199 342207 344213 350222
353226 358231 368237 373241 376246 379250 383252 387252
397257 404262 411266 423272 428270 433267 442257 449251
459243 460238 458235 452234 451229 455228 459225 463222
463216 455214 450213 442214 434211 426203 421198 413196
407195 407187 390187 391183 393182 398179 404178 408175
411178 414184 418187 422189 427188 429187 430184 435164
443170 447174 449179 449184 451186 457185 462179 462174
457170 458164 469166 472169 475169 480168 484169 489175
493176 497176 501179 506187 509192 512195 516200 518207
521213 527216 532217 534215
0.01 503159 502159 500154 497154 494158 491153 488152 486147
485147 483147 480146 482151 485152 488152 491153 493158
496158 499159 502159 503159
0.01 494212 496208 495207 492203 491202 490198 487197 484199
483200 480203 480204 480205 482209 483209 485211 488212
491213 494213 494212
0.01 422218 422216 420214 419217 418220 418223 420221 422219
422218
0.01 382753 381749 379749 375749 370751 365754 363757 358762
356765 353769 350773 351776 356774 362771 367768 372764
375761 378756 382753
0.25 477707 474699 472696 468696 465698 460703 455707 450709
446711 440711 437710 434706 432694 430686 427682 422680
420681 401696 396701 393705 387713 385718 390720 398718
405718 409719 412722 404767 400775 396782 384788 380792
376795 373798 371802 368808 367813 386813 389813 379819
363832 362832 358826 357817 353814 349814 343818 339823
334832 330840 333851 334857 331861 326867 325872 327875
329878 333884 333888 332892 330899 365901 372906 376909
377914 375924 371934 369940 365951 363959 362966 364969
370970 375967 382961 388953 392944 399928 406919 412913
417904 422893 427884 434876 443868 449862 456856 463849
467838 471826 474813 477802 478775 480753 480739 479725
477707
0.25 433249 432243 430239 423233 420230 417229 415226 414215
404209 397203 379192 376191 372191 371195 371198 373202
378210 381214 381218 378221 374221 372216 367218 379233
384242 388245 393247 416254 426255 431252 433249
0.25 363217 363214 362211 359209 358209 356208 353207 353208
353209 353211 355214 357216 358217 360218 363217
0.25 316860 314857 310857 307859 303864 301868 299872 299875
298881 298882 302885 305883 309879 311876 313872 315868
317863 316860
0.50 472740 470736 468733 460734 448734 437735 432735 429735
426738 444753 446761 445767 444771 442774 439776 435777
431772 428771 425773 421779 418785 420793 420798 419800
411812 408819 406826 402833 398837 394840 390841 385839
377841 371846 367859 364865 364868 365872 370877 372879
373883 372890 373895 377902 381910 380918 378925 368950
367957 368963 372963 377959 382954 385950 387943 391930
409908 421884 426878 431872 441863 447858 452853 456848
458842 464827 469811 471802 472795 473777 474757 473745
472740
0.50 426247 426243 423238 419234 414231 412223 409218 405215
402216 404220 404224 397226 391226 386224 382226 384230
389239 392242 397244 403246 408246 417248 423248 426247
0.50 391858 389855 388853 385853 383855 380858 378861 376864
376865 375868 377869 380869 382867 385865 387863 390860
391858
0.50 397211 394207 394206 392204 389203 387201 386201 384199
381199 380200 381201 381203 383206 385207 387209 388209
391211 393212 396211 397211
0.50 365882 362880 361879 358878 358877 355875 352876 349878
347881 345884 345885 345886 348887 349887 351887 354888
357888 360887 363886 365882
1.00 457821 458816 457811 454808 452807 446806 441810 435820
433825 431829 428830 423827 419827 416830 414834 407856
402869 396878 390887 387891 386898 387910 391913 394913
397912 402909 405904 411894 420875 424869 428864 435857
440852 444849 449843 451839 454836 456830 457821
1.00 386932 385928 382928 381929 379932 379933 378937 377938
376941 375944 375945 374949 376952 379951 382948 383944
384941 384940 385936 385934 386932
1.50 423846 421840 418840 416843 413854 409863 405873 400881
396889 393894 392900 395903 398901 401901 404899 406896
411886 416877 421867 423858 423846
24HR QP VT 13/12Z
0.01 487622 483616 480611 476606 471602 466600 462600 458601
454601 450603 444606 440610 435613 431616 427620 422625
418627 402638 389649 375662 368668 364674 353686 348693
342700 334710 328715 324721 310740 303752 299759 297765
294779 292795 291806 289816 284828 284833 287835 291831
295826 298819 303807 308794 314780 316774 319770 323758
331747 333745 335741 340738 345732 351727 366716 378706
387700 395696 406693 411692 413692 417697 421704 420712
419729 418735 415743 411749 409754 407759 407761 409767
411773 408778 396789 391793 385797 383800 382804 386810
388813 391814 396815 410818 414821 420826 424829 431834
435840 436846 435850 432852 432856 433862 438870 447877
454879 457887 456907 457917 460921 461924 462930 465935
469942 477955 482962 487967 494973 499981 504988 509994
515995 517987 520977 520970 520957 521954 523949 522941
518930 517920 513912 492881 485868 482861 479851 476837
475824 474817 474806 476798 478788 479768 480749 481727
483718 485711 488703 490697 491690 492678 493669 493660
493651 492638 487622
0.01 523173 523165 522161 521152 519147 512140 506131 503125
501121 491117 486115 482111 480103 480093 479085 477081
473078 468077 462075 455070 447065 442063 438060 439057
441048 443041 441034 436026 425010 420002 418998 417989
417983 419974 421962 421953 420941 416932 413929 409927
404927 397932 390938 386947 386953 386960 388974 388980
387984 384995 380004 379011 377015 376019 375023 376027
380038 382044 384049 385054 384058 380058 377057 372051
369049 364050 358055 355061 357068 361075 361079 360084
360090 361093 364097 369100 375103 378103 381102 384099
388097 390100 388104 386108 382109 378112 374115 372117
367116 362116 357114 352114 348118 348124 353132 358137
364142 366143 366147 361155 360161 362166 368173 376179
386182 388183 392182 394180 395176 394172 391168 390164
391160 394156 400151 402148 403142 400132 403129 408127
413122 416121 420122 421125 419130 416139 415148 410157
408161 409166 411172 412180 410187 408192 404196 400197
393195 384189 370181 363177 356177 349181 344185 341193
341203 343213 348222 345228 343233 344241 344246 346252
348257 350261 356263 362261 365260 367262 372268 380271
388271 397270 406275 412277 417278 434278 445279 456284
464286 473284 477281 479271 479265 477258 469240 467236
464234 459229 457227 460224 466222 470219 470214 466210
461210 456208 449203 446197 447189 446186 444182 439182
437186 437195 439202 440207 437209 433207 430204 429197
430190 428186 422178 425174 429173 431169 431165 427156
424148 425138 425131 428127 429125 431123 436123 440124
444129 450129 452131 450134 448142 445142 445133 442131
439132 436136 434142 433150 434153 436156 439157 444159
447162 450166 453164 455159 460157 468165 469167 472165
475164 478168 480171 485178 490179 495179 501181 505184
512186 517187 519182 523173
0.01 457126 459122 458119 455122 454126 455127 457126 457126
0.01 448088 447084 444081 440076 438073 436068 435067 433069
430073 427076 425078 421079 417079 415083 414091 414103
415107 417110 424103 427100 432096 437096 441094 447091
448088
0.01 422170 422169 421166 420163 417164 416165 414168 416172
419172 422173 422170
0.01 372205 371204 369201 366200 363198 361196 361195 358193
356191 353194 353197 354200 356201 357202 360204 362206
362207 365208 368208 371205 372205
0.01 337901 335892 332888 329886 324891 321896 317900 312898
308892 304883 300875 294871 291871 287872 288881 291890
293893 295898 294906 293911 293915 296922 301928 307930
316931 324929 332926 336919 337909 337901
0.25 479635 476627 473623 468618 462616 456616 450618 445623
436629 426635 405648 397654 393658 390665 390668 392671
396674 403672 412667 417666 422666 425667 429671 436682
443697 444706 443714 442723 447733 445739 442742 432748
430749 428755 427761 427768 426773 422779 418782 414788
413792 415799 418805 422806 425803 428797 432792 434785
434775 437771 442767 461755 466744 469734 472722 475708
478684 481657 482650 481643 479635
0.25 446249 443244 439240 435231 432227 429226 427228 426232
420230 416228 417224 416220 413216 408214 399208 396208
394211 396216 399219 395222 388220 384217 377216 371219
367222 365226 365229 370232 377232 381235 385238 389247
395254 415256 425256 434255 442252 446249
0.25 427056 427052 424049 422049 421048 418047 415047 413049
413053 415056 416057 418058 421059 424058 427057 427056
0.25 401072 398071 396072 395074 395072 393068 392068 391068
389069 388072 388076 388079 389081 392080 393079 395077
398077 400076 401072 401072
0.50 471642 470637 468632 465628 459625 453626 447633 441638
439641 439645 438653 440659 443667 449686 453696 457704
461710 464708 467704 468700 468694 469678 470669 471662
473654 472646 471642
0.50 440756 438755 435756 433760 437761 439759 440756
24HR QP VT 14/12Z
0.01 494656 491644 486638 480629 475627 473630 472636 472645
472653 471662 469670 466678 463688 459695 448709 448713
449719 454724 458723 462720 463717 464712 466708 470705
474704 478701 489686 493678 495667 494656
0.01 526947 526942 525939 521934 515927 511924 508919 503911
496903 493900 489898 471891 467888 464884 461881 457879
456883 456888 455892 453898 454905 459916 465923 471932
477938 486944 493947 503952 510956 515957 518957 521955
524951 526947
0.01 518186 517181 515175 516169 519163 522158 522153 520151
516138 510129 502123 499118 496114 490104 486094 481085
473078 471078 468080 465085 464095 464106 465111 467116
472127 476137 483146 489153 491157 496162 501171 506181
513187 518186
0.01 482213 479209 477207 471205 466206 458205 454203 452200
455193 457188 457183 455178 454173 451171 453160 450155
436144 435151 437156 440161 444162 446168 445170 446177
442178 438177 434164 426159 423154 422145 423136 422129
423125 426121 426115 421114 417114 415110 413102 412095
408092 405094 403099 401101 398099 396096 397091 399086
401083 403083 408082 412080 415080 421082 426078 436082
446077 448075 447068 442059 440053 443048 447041 447038
444032 441029 435022 431016 430009 429999 429988 431981
431972 432964 432956 432943 433935 434927 435922 437916
442904 444897 444890 443880 441871 436859 429849 423841
415835 408832 402826 396810 393800 389794 386790 381788
372788 367785 364782 357774 350765 343758 337753 329749
323748 319749 310755 307760 305765 303776 302787 302797
303803 301807 296820 291829 288832 287836 286846 284858
283868 270886 269891 270896 271902 275905 278909 279915
281925 284937 285946 285959 285966 288972 293974 298971
301967 304962 308952 313944 316941 320939 330938 343937
353939 357939 360937 362932 362926 357917 350907 348903
350899 355900 360902 367906 374912 377916 378918 375923
373928 371935 372942 373946 376952 378957 380964 381972
380980 378986 376999 376011 377017 380024 386032 389037
388040 383043 379043 372043 367045 364050 362061 364075
358100 363109 364114 359115 354113 351110 347106 345101
344096 338093 336097 336102 334105 334108 337131 336139
338143 343147 345150 346155 345158 342160 340160 337160
333159 328156 322155 315155 309156 307158 307163 311167
317170 321174 323179 322186 319192 315199 315203 317208
321211 326214 332215 332218 328223 327228 326234 328238
331241 337245 344245 347243 355240 358239 361240 368243
375249 382259 386264 391268 400274 441271 449268 456262
460256 461251 461246 458241 453238 446237 442236 436234
444232 456227 469217 473216 477216 482213
0.01 428785 428781 427780 424780 421781 418783 416786 415788
414789 413793 412795 412797 413801 414805 416808 419808
422806 424804 426800 427798 428795 428793 428789 429786
428785
0.01 379878 379874 377872 377871 374868 371868 370870 371873
372874 374876 376877 378878 379878 379878
0.01 381178 381174 378172 375173 374176 375177 378178 380178
381178
0.01 381065 381061 378060 375060 372061 375065 378066 381065
381065
0.25 425885 424874 421868 417863 414860 411860 407862 408867
411873 412882 410888 404892 399897 396903 395910 396921
394927 391932 390942 395961 396967 396975 392992 391998
391003 393009 396016 399021 404023 408024 411022 414017
416008 418993 421976 422958 423940 425922 425914 425903
424897 425887 425885
0.25 417248 419240 416235 413233 412228 411222 409219 406217
405211 402205 398202 390198 387195 378188 372185 365183
358182 352183 351187 355189 361192 365196 367200 367205
365207 362206 355203 352200 347195 345193 342196 342200
342204 345209 349218 353222 359226 373230 384237 391245
401252 408253 412252 417248
0.25 381152 380148 379141 378137 377130 376126 374124 371125
368128 366132 367138 368143 369147 372151 377154 381152
0.25 350818 349808 344800 337792 331787 327785 324784 320787
318793 320800 320808 319814 317820 306843 300852 297863
293876 292890 294903 298908 302911 305911 309909 312905
317900 322899 325898 329893 334881 337874 338868 340862
345858 347856 349852 350845 350833 350818
0.25 345185 345182 345178 344175 344174 342174 341175 340177
339181 340183 340184 342188 345185
0.25 361128 359127 357128 359129 361128
0.50 419923 418911 417908 414905 411904 408906 405912 405923
403930 399936 398940 398944 400951 401961 400970 400981
400000 402008 406009 408007 412999 414991 417975 417954
417943 418936 419923
0.50 408241 409237 408233 408232 405229 403232 402232 399232
396232 394233 393236 394241 394242 397244 400245 403245
405244 406243 408241
0.50 396211 393206 389203 386200 383196 379193 376191 371188
365188 365190 367193 369198 373202 377206 379208 385210
391212 396211
0.50 369219 369218 366217 364216 363214 361213 359213 360217
361217 363218 366219 369219 369219
0.50 341833 340822 336816 333815 327821 322826 320832 315845
312858 307872 308879 311885 315885 319884 324881 328874
331868 332861 332854 340841 341833
1.00 409976 408974 407977 408978 409976
$$
