in-crop-weather State Indiana Crop Weather Week Ending Date November 4, 2007 Issue IN-CW442007 Agricultural Summary Favorable weather persisted during the week allowing many farmers to finish with harvest, according to the Indiana Field Office of USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. Soybean harvest is nearing completion with only scattered fields and some double cropped soybeans remaining. Emergence and growth of the winter wheat crop has been very good this fall. Other activities included fall tillage, cleaning and storing equipment, spreading dry fertilizer and lime, injecting anhydrous ammonia, applications of fall herbicides, stripping tobacco, hauling manure and taking care of livestock. Field Crops Report There were 6.3 days suitable for field work. Ninety-one percent of the corn acreage has been harvested compared with 62 percent last year and 77 percent for the 5-year average. By area, corn harvest is 86 percent complete in the north, 92 percent in the central region, and 97 percent in the south. Moisture content of harvested corn continues to average about 16 percent. Ninety-six percent of the soybean crop has been harvested compared with 84 percent last year and 92 percent for the 5-year average. By area, soybean harvest is 96 percent complete in the north, 97 percent in the central region, and 95 percent in the south. Moisture content of harvested soybeans averaged about 11.5 percent. Ninety-eight percent of the winter wheat has been seeded at this time compared with 92 percent last year and 93 percent for the 5-year average. Ninety-one percent of the winter wheat acreage has emerged compared with 58 percent last year and 74 percent for the 5-year average. Livestock, Pasture and Range Report Pastures have experienced some re-growth with recent rainfall and moderate temperatures. However, many producers continue to sell livestock due to short forage supplies. Livestock remain in mostly good condition. Crop Progress Table ------------------------------------------------------- : This : Last : Last : 5-Year Crop : Week : Week : Year : Avg ------------------------------------------------------- Percent Corn Harvested 91 81 62 77 Soybeans Harvested 96 91 84 92 Winter Wheat Planted 98 94 92 93 Winter Wheat Emerged 91 82 58 74 Crop Condition Table ----------------------------------------------------------- : Very : : : : Excel- Crop : Poor : Poor : Fair : Good : lent ----------------------------------------------------------- Percent Winter Wheat 0 2 20 63 15 Soil Moisture & Days Suitable for Fieldwork Table ---------------------------------------- : This : Last : Last : : Week : Week : Year : ---------------------------------------- Percent Topsoil Very Short 8 8 0 Short 19 19 1 Adequate 72 67 69 Surplus 1 6 30 Subsoil Very Short 21 22 0 Short 34 40 2 Adequate 44 38 76 Surplus 1 0 22 Days Suitable 6.3 3.5 4.8 --Greg Preston, Director --Andy Higgins, Agricultural Statistician E-Mail Address: nass-in@nass.usda.gov http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Indiana ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Other Agricultural Comments And News CORN PRICES AT MARKETING YEAR HIGH - October 29, 2007 Cash corn prices in some markets are at the highest level for the marketing year that began on September 1. The recent strength reflects higher futures prices and a stronger basis. The average cash corn price in central Illinois briefly dipped below $3.00 in mid-September and was just above $3.00 on October 8. That average, however, was at $3.47 on October 26. Since reaching a low of about $3.35 in early October, December 2007 corn futures settled at $3.72 on October 26. The average basis in central Illinois was extremely weak in the pre-harvest and early harvest period, with cash bids on September 20 averaging about $.50 under December futures. The weak basis pattern was widespread throughout the midwest. On October 26, the average central Illinois cash bid was $.25 under December futures, very close to a "normal" level. Higher futures prices and a stronger basis have developed in spite of an extremely large crop, the need for corn to be stored in temporary facilities, and high transportation costs. The strength reflects a continuation of strong export demand, higher energy costs, concerns about U.S. acreage in 2008, and a slow down in the rate of farmer selling of the newly harvested crop. In addition, storage shortages may not have been as severe as generally expected. In Illinois, for example, the fall supply of crops (September 1 stocks plus 2007 production) totaled about three billion bushels. If storage capacity in 2007 was added at the same rate as in 2006, total capacity was about 350 million bushels less than the fall crop supply. That compares to the storage deficit of about 380 million bushels in 2004. Nationally, storage capacity was surplus by about 400 million bushels, assuming storage capacity was added in 2007 at the same rate as in 2006. The pace of U.S. corn exports during the first eight weeks of the 2007-08 marketing year has been similar to that of a year ago. Cumulative export inspections through October 25 totaled 345 million bushels, compared to 344 million during the first eight weeks of the 2006-07 marketing year. However, unshipped export sales as of October 28 were reported at 765 million bushels, compared to sales of only 425 million of a year ago. The demand for U.S. corn is being supported by less competition from Chinese corn, smaller world supplies of feed wheat, and a generally weak U.S. dollar. Exports are expected to remain strong through the winter months, although the recent pace of sales, averaging 69 million bushels per week from September 12 through October 18, cannot be sustained. In addition, a rebound in world wheat production would soften the demand for U.S. corn next summer. Higher energy prices, particularly crude oil prices, have raised expectations about ethanol demand and prices. The average price of ethanol at Iowa plants was well over $2.00 per gallon in the spring of 2007, but declined to about $1.50 in late September and early October. The low ethanol price, along with the recent increase in corn prices, pushed ethanol crush margins to very low levels. Using total estimated cost of production, margins were negative for some producers. Ethanol prices have increased about $.10 per gallon over the past 10 days. Further increases would keep operating margins for existing plants well in the black, supporting the domestic demand for corn. Concerns that corn acreage could decline in the U.S. in 2008 stem from the rising costs of corn production, high soybean prices, and ideas that winter wheat acreage has been increased. At this juncture, it is not clear how many acres of corn are needed in 2008. That calculation is a function of expectations about average yield, the level of year ending stocks of the 2007 crop, and expectations about the size of the U.S. corn market in 2008-09. However, with December corn futures well over $4.00 per bushel, corn production in much of the midwest is potentially more profitable than soybean production at the current level of 2008-09 marketing year soybean prices. If basis levels continue at more normal levels during the remainder of the marketing year, the market is currently offering about $.35 per bushel, in the form of basis improvement, to store corn into the spring of 2008. Stored corn that is hedged or sold on a hedged-to- arrive contract, will likely continue to earn a positive net return. Opportunities to price more of the 2007 crop may develop over the next few weeks. December 2007 futures above $3.90, however, might require some new fundamental information. On the supply side, the new USDA production forecast to be released on November 9 will be important. Issued by Darrel Good, Extension Economist, Dept. Of Agricultural & Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ The INDIANA CROP & WEATHER REPORT (USPS 675-770), (ISSN 0442-817X) is issued weekly April through November by the USDA, NASS, Indiana Field Office, 1435 Win Hentschel Blvd, Suite 110, West Lafayette IN 47906-4145. Second Class postage paid at Lafayette IN. For information on subscribing, send request to above address. POSTMASTER: Send address change to the USDA, NASS, Indiana Field Office, 1435 Win Hentschel Blvd, Suite 110, West Lafayette IN 47906-4145. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weather Information Table Week ending Sunday November 4, 2007 ----------------------------------------------------- | Past Week Weather Summary Data |--------------------------------- Station | Air | | Avg | Temperature | Precip. |4 in. |---------------|------------|Soil |Hi |Lo |Avg|DFN| Total|Days |Temp ----------------------------------------------------- Northwest (1) Chalmers_5W 67 28 45 -4 0.00 0 Francesville 64 28 45 -2 0.00 0 Valparaiso_AP_I 64 26 47 +0 0.00 0 Wanatah 65 22 44 -3 0.00 0 51 Winamac 64 28 45 -1 0.00 0 47 North Central(2) Plymouth 64 27 45 -3 0.00 0 South_Bend 63 28 47 +1 0.00 0 Young_America 66 29 46 -1 0.00 0 Northeast (3) Columbia_City 57 29 44 -2 0.00 0 49 Fort_Wayne 65 28 46 -2 0.00 0 West Central(4) Greencastle 68 26 44 -6 0.00 0 Perrysville 68 25 47 -2 0.00 0 51 Spencer_Ag 67 29 46 -3 0.00 0 Terre_Haute_AFB 68 27 47 -3 0.00 0 W_Lafayette_6NW 66 25 44 -3 0.00 0 51 Central (5) Eagle_Creek_AP 67 32 48 -2 0.00 0 Greenfield 67 30 45 -4 0.02 1 Indianapolis_AP 68 33 48 +0 0.00 0 Indianapolis_SE 66 29 45 -4 0.00 0 Tipton_Ag 66 30 46 +0 0.00 0 49 East Central(6) Farmland 66 24 44 -3 0.00 0 48 New_Castle 66 29 45 -3 0.00 0 Southwest (7) Evansville 71 33 50 -2 0.00 0 Freelandville 69 34 48 -2 0.00 0 Shoals 70 26 45 -5 0.00 0 Stendal 71 32 51 +1 0.00 0 Vincennes_5NE 71 31 49 -1 0.00 0 54 South Central(8) Leavenworth 68 31 48 -3 0.00 0 Oolitic 67 27 46 -3 0.00 0 49 Tell_City 71 36 51 -1 0.00 0 Southeast (9) Brookville 69 28 47 -1 0.00 0 Greensburg 66 31 47 -2 0.00 0 Scottsburg 69 26 46 -4 0.00 0 ---------------------------------------------------- Weather Information Table (Continued) Week ending Sunday November 4, 2007 ------------------------------------------------ Accumulation -------------------------------- April 1, 2007 thru Station November 4, 2007 -------------------------------- Precipitation |GDD Base 50oF -------------------------------- | | | | Total | DFN |Days|Total| DFN ------------------------------------------------- Northwest (1) | Chalmers_5W |23.84 -1.19 61 3534 +315 Francesville |28.65 +3.16 69 3374 +438 Valparaiso_AP_I |20.80 -6.86 56 3532 +587 Wanatah |27.04 +0.62 72 3211 +421 Winamac |27.73 +2.24 73 3434 +498 North Central(2)| Plymouth |33.06 +6.73 83 3329 +234 South_Bend |27.59 +1.85 67 3596 +696 Young_America |21.47 -3.40 67 3610 +578 Northeast (3) | Columbia_City |20.60 -4.21 76 3310 +546 Fort_Wayne |23.60 +0.86 72 3636 +588 West Central(4) | Greencastle |23.55 -5.03 58 3572 +110 Perrysville |21.43 -5.12 61 3948 +741 Spencer_Ag |28.53 -0.01 60 3760 +532 Terre_Haute_AFB |25.42 -1.49 58 3986 +551 W_Lafayette_6NW |25.21 +0.04 70 3656 +623 Central (5) | Eagle_Creek_AP |19.08 -6.12 64 4188 +789 Greenfield |19.78 -7.87 78 3792 +528 Indianapolis_AP |17.45 -7.75 61 4287 +888 Indianapolis_SE |21.91 -3.99 64 3784 +392 Tipton_Ag |21.47 -4.56 78 3560 +628 East Central(6) | Farmland |22.60 -2.18 70 3429 +571 New_Castle |21.77 -4.81 55 3517 +586 Southwest (7) | Evansville |18.88 -6.81 55 4727 +762 Freelandville |21.28 -5.38 58 4208 +656 Shoals |22.09 -6.81 51 3952 +508 Stendal |22.92 -5.59 60 4702 +983 Vincennes_5NE |24.07 -2.59 61 4416 +864 South Central(8)| Leavenworth |25.11 -3.98 71 4310 +891 Oolitic |20.65 -7.21 53 3909 +636 Tell_City |28.10 -0.99 49 4649 +803 Southeast (9) | Brookville |18.28 -8.44 48 4061 +964 Greensburg |20.73 -6.16 60 4102 +922 Scottsburg |25.16 -2.30 58 4130 +595 ------------------------------------------------------------------ DFN = Departure From Normal (Using 1961-90 Normals Period). GDD = Growing Degree Days. Precipitation (Rainfall or melted snow/ice) in inches. Precipitation Days = Days with precip of .01 inch or more. Air Temperatures in Degrees Fahrenheit. Copyright 2007: Agricultural Weather Information Service, Inc. All rights reserved. The above weather information is provided by AWIS, Inc. For detailed ag weather forecasts and data visit the AWIS home page at: www.awis.com