FXUS66 KMFR 302145
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
240 PM PDT MON AUG 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM THE FORECAST ISSUES ARE STRATUS AT THE COAST AND 
CUMULUS BUILDUP IN THE MOUNTAINS. MESOETA SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 
BECOMING SOUTHERLY UP TO NEWPORT TONIGHT AND EXPECT STRATUS TO 
SPREAD THAT WAY ALONG THE COAST WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG. STRATUS WILL 
LIKELY HUG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COASTLINE ON TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...THE 
CUMULI LOOK VERY FLAT ON THE CRATER LAKE AND LAKEVIEW ROAD CAMS 
AND DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY. 
HOWEVER...GOES SOUNDER DOES SHOW A -1 L.I. ON THE HARNEY-LAKE COUNTY 
LINE AT THIS TIME SO MAY SEE BETTER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THIS 
AREA. 

ON TUESDAY THE GFS SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY AROUND CRATER LAKE 
NORTHWARD AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA FOR ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOISTURE STILL LACKING SO WILL HOLD OFF WITH 10 
PERCENT POPS IN THAT AREA. ALSO EXPECT CUMULUS BUILDUPS IN THE 
MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE GULF 
OF ALASKA UPPER LOW HEADS INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. IT LOOKS 
TO BE A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
WEST OF THE CASCADES. IF THE TIMING IS RIGHT THERE COULD BE 
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE FAR EAST SIDE WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON AND WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE.

IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE 
UPPER TROUGH NEARBY ALONG WITH GUSTIER WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS 
LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON THE EAST SIDE 
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY 
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 
MIXING. 

THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF 
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS. THE ENSEMBLES AND OTHER 
MODELS SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE BUT A RIDGE NONETHELESS. EXPECT WARMING 
AND DRYING TO COMMENCE ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ON THE 
WEST SIDE RIDGES AND MORE OF THE CHETCO EFFECT WITH VERY WARM 
TEMPERATURES FOR A DAY OR TWO THIS WEEKEND AT BROOKINGS. 

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

SANDLER