FXUS04 KWBC 081936 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 335 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION VALID SEP 10/0000 UTC THRU SEP 11/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...MID ATLC STATES/UPR OH VLY NNEWD INTO NEW ENG... ALL MODELS CONT TO TAKE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FRANCES FROM WRN WV TO WRN AND NRN NY STATE DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. HVY RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BNDRY BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER ERN OH AND PA TO PORTIONS OF NY STATE. TO THE EAST OF THE FRANCES CIRCULATION...A STRONG INFLOW OF ATLC MOISTURE WITH A 50KT SLY 85H JET WILL BRING INCREASING PW VALUES OF OVER 2 INCHES INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENG...WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL BNDRYS EVIDENT ACROSS SRN NEW ENG. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ETA FCST...EXPECTING GENERALIZED 2-3 INCH RAIN AMTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST FROM ERN OH TO MAINE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ALONG THE TRACK OF FRANCES THROUGH WRN PA AND WRN NY....AND ACROSS THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF NRN NY AND NEW ENG. THE HIGHER GFS AMTS OVER NW PA AND WRN NY SEEM A LITTLE HIGH GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFS ACROSS MAINE WITH THE GFS FASTER TO SPREAD HVY AMTS ACROSS THE STATE ON THURS ALONG INVERTED TROF EXTENDING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. USED A COMPROMISE AS THE ETA APPEARS SOMEWHAT SLOW TO PROGRESS THE MOISTURE THRU MAINE IN THE STRONG WARM ADV PATTERN. ...PAC NW... PAC SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS B.C. WHERE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN. THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME LGT RNFL OVER THE OLYMPICS AND NRN CASCADES UNDER SOME MODEST HGT FALLS AND 20+ KTS OF WLY LOW LVL ONSHORE FLO. ...FL... AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WITH PWS AROUND 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF THE PENINSULA AND REMAIN NEARLY STNRY. ISOLD HVY AMTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN HRS. DAY 2... ...NORTHEASTERN U.S... MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT LIFTING THE SLOWLY WEAKENING REMNANTS OF FRANCES N...THEN NNE...JUST W OF THE SPINE OF THE CENTRAL /NRN APLCNS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT SHOULD COME DURING THE DAYTIME FRI AS FRANCES COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGHER LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF FRANCES WILL BE EXITING NRN NEW ENG EARLY FRI. HOWEVER...CONVECTION ALONG A TRAILING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE N ATLANTIC COAST IS LIKELY TO BE HEAVIER THAN PORTRAYED BY EITHER THE ETA OR GFS...CONSIDERING PRESENT RADAR IMAGERY. THE GFS SHOWS A LOW LEVEL JET AND 2 IN PWS JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTING THIS REASONING. ...S ATLANTIC COAST... THE ETA AND GFS ARE SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY 500MB HEIGHT FALL IN THIS REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES LIFTS NE FRI INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. ALSO...THEY SHOW THE WRN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE HANGING TOUGH. THEREFORE... HPC IS SLOWER TO CLEAR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THAN THE GFS. WE EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF PCPN THRU THE CAROLINAS...COASTAL GA...AND FL TO LOOK MORE LIKE THAT OF THE ETA BUT MORE CONCENTRATED THAN THE ETA ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS....EXTENDING SSW INTO W CENTRAL FL. ...S TX COAST... ETA/GFS MOVE SOME MOISTURE INTO FAR S TX BUT GFS APPEARS OVERDONE. IN HINDSIGHT...MAN GRAPHIC IS PROBABLY TOO WET ALSO. ....NRN PLAINS... MOISTURE RETURN AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT THE GFS PW FORECAST SUGGESTS ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING FOR SOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN ND INTO EXTREME NW MN. ...PAC NW... GFS/ETA IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE COASTAL RANGES OF WA FOR OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED HVY PCPN. MAN QPF LOOKS CLOSER TO THE GFS THAN THE ETA IN THIS AREA. HEDGE/FLOOD GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 10/00Z 0.01 503696 500686 497678 491665 484652 480645 476642 473640 467641 460634 456632 454633 446639 439650 435655 432662 426671 414677 408680 400687 386703 379711 373717 368721 362727 351732 335740 325747 318752 308759 302767 296775 289781 270789 258800 251807 249812 248816 246824 244833 241846 239857 239860 240865 260862 266861 270859 274853 282839 288831 296820 310812 324806 338798 341797 345795 348796 352797 356802 358806 357812 354832 357836 361836 369836 387836 397836 401835 408835 413833 418829 426822 430818 434813 438809 441807 455792 463783 470778 479773 489763 494756 498751 501746 504735 506725 506715 504706 503696 0.01 535220 538212 539203 539194 538190 533178 529169 524160 517153 510147 508145 507138 504127 502122 499120 493121 492125 491132 491139 489145 487151 485157 482160 481169 483172 486173 489179 489188 492193 499195 504198 509202 515209 522227 524232 528233 531230 533225 535220 0.01 520269 521264 522259 520253 516243 506221 500209 497205 495204 492205 474207 471206 468209 464213 458215 455215 452219 455224 459226 462228 465227 464231 460233 455235 454239 457243 463245 474248 479252 482256 488265 494273 499278 505279 509278 514277 520269 0.01 266974 263971 261968 257967 249969 242972 237974 234976 233979 232983 238987 244989 249990 254988 254983 256979 261975 266974 0.25 491701 489692 485683 479673 473665 468660 465657 457654 452655 448657 434674 400700 384722 368745 347761 327779 314794 323794 338782 350774 365771 376778 377783 378791 382798 384802 386808 388816 393827 397828 401828 408826 413824 420818 427811 435802 442793 454778 462768 470759 479750 485742 489731 492720 492707 491701 0.25 533210 533200 532193 530189 527182 522174 516167 511165 509165 504169 503171 503178 506183 511190 516197 521206 524212 528216 531214 533210 0.25 514266 516262 515257 513252 512246 510241 505229 503224 500219 496215 491214 485214 481216 482219 487223 490225 493230 497241 501252 503258 506263 510266 514266 0.25 285811 284807 281807 275805 268805 263806 258809 254815 254823 255829 258834 261837 264837 272834 278830 281825 284818 286813 285811 0.50 483697 481690 478683 472674 467668 460663 453663 448666 444670 439676 431683 414694 408699 405703 401708 398715 395724 391739 389744 386750 384753 384758 388765 391776 397794 396802 393811 393814 395821 401824 405824 409822 414820 418816 425809 431802 441788 454773 465758 480741 484732 486724 486715 485706 483697 0.50 509255 510249 508242 505237 503232 501227 499222 494221 495227 497232 500237 502243 504248 507254 509255 0.50 277821 276818 275817 273816 272815 269814 268814 266814 263814 260815 258818 258822 258825 260827 262830 265831 267831 268831 270830 273829 274828 275827 277824 277822 277821 1.00 470688 467681 461675 456674 449677 427697 419703 414707 410714 408720 403736 401748 400755 401766 405781 406792 405799 399812 400817 403819 406818 413815 418811 429799 436789 441782 447775 454765 465751 475740 479734 482729 482723 479714 474705 470688 1.50 464744 468740 468733 467730 461729 457727 454717 455711 458708 462703 463693 462687 458683 452682 445686 438693 429707 423714 418718 415722 413726 411734 410740 413747 420752 422757 416770 414779 412787 408800 404809 404814 407814 414810 418805 429792 439779 449767 457754 464744 2.00 457689 453687 450688 447689 444692 442695 441697 440698 439703 443704 444704 446704 448702 451700 453698 454696 455694 457689 2.00 426737 429739 433745 437749 442745 443734 445730 441724 435718 425722 421724 420725 420731 421734 426737 2.00 444767 448758 447753 443752 440755 433763 431764 426769 422775 417786 413795 409804 408808 411809 415804 421797 426790 433782 440771 444767 24HR QP VT 11/00Z 0.01 514670 510649 500623 490606 485602 479599 465605 453617 434643 426653 419662 415668 407675 401682 393689 374709 370714 350736 329760 314777 300792 285798 268796 259794 252796 246800 242804 235815 233820 232824 232828 234831 237832 241831 251827 250849 248885 247920 253934 266926 270899 273886 276873 283850 287844 291844 292848 293858 292864 292878 292888 293894 298892 305884 307879 308873 310846 311838 315833 327823 336813 347799 362779 372769 377763 383763 389764 391768 393773 393783 389789 379798 372805 369807 368811 370817 374815 388808 402800 413792 430782 439778 447774 454769 461767 471762 480756 484750 491744 494741 496737 499730 506716 511698 513687 514677 514670 0.01 559891 560840 552805 545800 530818 516843 502877 488917 483935 479950 477957 477964 474982 469012 468020 468024 470029 471035 474042 477048 479056 483071 488085 492090 497094 500095 502095 505091 511079 512072 514062 515044 515033 517024 518015 521010 527998 532985 536977 538968 544955 549941 550933 553925 554917 557907 559891 0.01 536216 538207 538197 536191 533179 519155 504145 495147 488154 484162 483169 484174 488187 487192 480196 476198 472199 465205 460212 458214 454216 452218 451222 453228 453231 448233 443237 440239 440242 443245 447247 446254 445258 442261 439265 438272 439276 441281 446288 450292 453295 461300 464300 468298 472297 477297 494303 498304 502304 506301 509298 511290 514286 517277 525252 531231 534220 536216 0.01 278968 277960 271948 262946 252957 250972 259987 269989 275980 277975 278968 0.25 510675 507652 500630 494618 487610 484607 481606 476608 472610 465617 458625 451635 445644 438655 433661 429665 414681 406689 397697 377718 343755 326777 315789 310795 298806 293808 288810 279810 264810 261814 262820 265829 263844 268843 273839 279837 285836 301833 308828 316822 328810 340796 350782 366756 377744 388735 403728 411725 415724 418726 421729 422736 422741 420747 416754 414759 413767 417770 425770 435767 442764 451758 463754 474748 479744 485739 491731 496721 501712 506700 508691 510675 0.25 553823 551820 548814 542820 536829 531838 513875 508886 504896 498915 493938 491948 489961 482006 482014 482024 485034 487038 491041 494042 498041 500037 502028 503017 504010 505005 509994 513984 517978 527959 532949 536939 540931 550900 551900 555877 555857 555846 554831 553823 0.25 532209 533202 531195 529189 524178 520172 514166 508164 503163 501164 499170 501176 506183 511189 515195 519205 522211 525214 529213 532209 0.25 517263 516256 515252 516248 516243 514238 509226 502216 497208 491206 491205 482206 474211 470213 465221 468224 468228 464230 459232 456233 454235 452239 460246 462250 460257 455265 452272 453279 457284 461287 470285 479286 490289 499291 504291 508288 510284 511278 512270 517263 0.25 267978 270974 271968 267963 264962 262962 260963 259963 257966 257967 256970 256973 258975 259975 261978 263978 264978 267978 0.50 505657 504648 501639 495626 491620 487616 484613 480613 471619 463628 455637 450647 448652 446657 441665 432674 424682 393710 384719 382722 380725 381728 385728 390726 398723 409718 418713 425709 431709 434711 434717 434724 432734 428742 426752 426757 427761 435760 440757 442754 448747 452744 457743 464745 468745 473744 478739 487729 493720 498712 502702 506688 507678 507666 505657 0.50 551830 550825 549822 549826 549831 551831 551830 0.50 523944 529933 542904 549885 551847 549834 544834 534850 530859 522875 516888 513894 509904 504919 500940 496962 497986 501988 509973 515964 518958 521950 523944 0.50 514262 512256 510250 508237 504225 499216 496212 491210 482211 475216 478219 484222 483225 480227 476229 471230 467232 462233 458235 457239 462242 465247 466259 468266 470268 477265 483264 486264 490266 494272 498282 500286 503287 505286 508282 508276 507263 514262 0.50 500251 499246 498246 497245 498246 500251 500251 0.50 349771 349767 347766 342769 337777 325790 312803 305810 296817 288821 279821 272819 270820 273822 285832 292831 296829 301828 306825 314819 321813 328806 334798 340790 344783 348775 349771 1.00 502655 500646 497640 495634 493631 490629 484627 479630 474634 467644 462652 457661 449671 445679 449686 453692 455698 460711 462718 465723 471726 479726 483724 488720 493711 498701 500692 502681 503670 502659 502655 1.00 505277 504266 498255 492244 490239 488237 484237 480235 476233 473233 469236 468239 469242 476251 484256 490260 492263 496268 499274 501280 504281 505277 1.00 503238 503235 503233 501228 499223 499222 496220 493221 493226 494230 495231 497236 499239 502239 503238 1.50 496650 493645 491641 487637 482639 476646 470658 470667 473676 473691 472706 473711 476712 480716 484715 487713 490706 496691 500678 500669 500664 498659 496650 1.50 495258 494253 492247 488242 486241 484243 481241 478237 473237 472241 475244 477247 482251 487256 490258 495258 2.00 497669 496665 494663 490661 487663 485667 484672 483681 484687 484691 487694 491692 494688 496681 497675 497669 2.00 490252 489249 486247 483249 485251 488252 490252 $$