FXUS63 KJKL 090805 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004 .DISCUSSION... STATIONARY FRONT RUNS ACROSS I 80 WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PARADING ALONG THE FRONT. CLOSER TO HOME, WE HAD CLEAR SKIES WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF A GOOD TEN DEGREE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. OVER THE NEXT WEEK THE SUMMERLIKE SOUTHERN RIDGE OF LATE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IT FROM THE WEST...AND THEN LATER IN THE WEEK...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ENGULF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THE RESULT WILL BE ONE FINAL DAY TODAY WITH NO POPS AND TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. BY MON...BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR FLOW FROM THE GULF TO PROVIDE A STEADY SOURCE OF MOISTURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. META AND GFS BOTH ADVERTISING A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW MON GIVING US OUR FIRST DAY WITH A POTENTIAL LIFT MECH. THEREFORE...UPPED POPS TO 30 IN WESTERN ZONES. TUE NOT AS CLEAR THEREFORE LEFT SLT CHC POPS...DIURNAL SUMMER LIKE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH GFS/ETA DIFFERING ON UPPER WAVE TIMING/POSITIONING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST TODAY...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY A DEGREE WARMER. MON AND TUE WILL COME DOWN INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME SKY COVER. GRIDS WERE IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEAR TERM. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 1150 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2004 GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH ZONAL SUMMER LIKE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE PLAINS EAST ALONG THE I 90 CORRIDOR TO A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SW PA AND THEN FRONT EXTENDS S DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST. AS OF 3Z...VALLEY TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH JKL AND OTHER RIDGE TOP LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 70S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES...LOW TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE REACHABLE IN MOST AREAS AND DID NOT CHANGE THEM. HOWEVER...OVER THE FAR SW...DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. RAISED VALLEY LOW TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE SW. ALSO...REMOVED MIDNIGHT REFERENCES TO PATCHY FOG. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE SW...EXPECT THE MOST FOG THERE. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ARE ALREADY OUT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 355 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2004 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARP BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RUNNING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A FRONT CONNECTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATED KEEPING THE WEATHER CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WERE ALSO LOCATED UP ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN OF FAST FLOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ABOVE A BROAD...FLAT RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS ENERGY DRIFTS THROUGH IT FROM THE WEST. THE PATTERN BUCKLES THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH ROLLS THROUGH THE ROCKIES PUMPING THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AS A RESULT KENTUCKY WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK FOR MINOR WAVES ROLLING NEARBY. GIVEN THEIR WEAKNESS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ETA WAS USED FOR TIMING PURPOSES. THE WESTERN TROUGH THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST CROSSING THE LAKES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER 24 TO 48 HOURS OF PERSISTENT WEATHER...MEANING DRY...WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY SUNNY DAYTIME SKIES AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. THE WEAKENING HIGH AND SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUMP INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO EAST KENTUCKY HELPING TO SLOWLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MODERATE CAPES AND SUMMERTIME LIS IN THE -6 RANGE. WITH AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN PWS THROUGH THE WEEK...ANY OF THE STORMS COULD PUT DOWN BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON DOES LOOK COOLER IN THE FRONT/S WAKE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. NIGHTTIME RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS WILL BE THE RULE AS WELL WITH PATCHY...MAINLY VALLEY...FOG FROM JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK. MOS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WERE ALL VERY SIMILAR...JUST HAD TO CHERRY PICK MY PREFERRED VALUES BASED MAINLY ON PERSISTENCE AND POP CHANCES STARTING MONDAY. POPS WERE ALSO SIMILAR...KEPT THEM OUT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS WARRANTED... EFFECTIVELY SPLITTING THE MAV AND FWC NUMBERS. TRIED TO REPRESENT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS PEAKING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS FOR IFPS/GFE GRIDS...POPULATED WITH MY USUAL PROCEDURE FROM THE MESOETA FOR TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS THROUGH 60 HOURS. THESE CAME IN FAIRLY GOOD AND JUST HAD TO EXPAND THE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO SHAVED THE WINDS BACK A BIT. THE REST OF THE GRIDS WERE IN DECENT SHAPE SAVE FOR SOME FILL PATTERN SKY GRIDS I INHERITED MID FORECAST. ADJUSTED AND REDID THE SKY WHERE NECESSARY PER THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...HPC AND NDFD COLLABORATION. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ OUDEMAN