FXUS63 KMKX 070915
AFDMKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 AM CST SUN MAR 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON WINDS TODAY AND THEN ON PCPN
CHCS INTO MID WEEK.

30 UNIT VORT MAX PER RUC/WATER VAPOR PLOWING THRU CNTRL WI THIS
MRNG. PCPN WITHIN CWA ASSOC W/TAIL OF VORT QUICKLY EXITING CWA...THO
VORT ITSELF WRAPPING PCPN SEWD TOWARDS CWA...SO STILL ANOTHER SHOT OF
PCPN YET THIS MRNG. CWA WILL THEN BE DRY SLOTTED. WILL HAVE A NE/SW
GRADIENT OF POPS TODAY....ESP SEEING H7 LOW CLOSE OFF IN LWR MI WITH
SECONDARY VV MAX ROTATE SEWD INTO NERN PTN CWA. AFTN SOUNDINGS MOIST
IN LOW LAYERS AND PROGGD CAPE NEXT TO NIL. ON THE PLUS SIDE IS H5
COLD POOL COMING ACRS WITH OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW AND DVLPMT OF E-W
ORIENTED SFC TROUGH. HIGHS ARE BEING ESTABLISHED THIS MRNG WITH SLUG
OF WAA AHEAD OF SFC LOW. WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS.

MAIN STORY TODAY LIKELY TO END UP BEING THE WINDS. IMPRESSIVE NVA AS
SYS PULLS AWAY TODAY. ALL MODELS SHOW 50KT AT H8 WITH SOME 40KT PLUS
WINDS BENEATH. BUFFY SOUNDINGS INDICATING A WELL MIXED COLUMN THRU
ALMOST 4K. AT THE VERY LEAST WILL HAVE 20-35 WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

WILL STICK WITH GOING FCST WRT PCPN ON MON. ETA AND GFS NOT THAT
DIFF WRT TIMING OF FORCING. ETA MUCH SLOWER TO MOISTEN UP COLUMN THAN
GFS...HOLDING OFF PCPN UNTIL MON NGT. ETA VV WOULD TEND TO FAVOR GFS
QPF TIMING. H8 TEMPS/1000-H5 THICKNESSES FAVOR SN AS PCPN TYPE OF
CHOICE...THO ETA SHOWING WARMER BL TEMPS...SO WILL KEEP IT AS
EITHER/OR FOR NOW.

YET ANOTHER CHC OF PCPN STILL ON TRACK FOR WED.

&&

.MKX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$