FXUS62 KEYW 110214 CCA
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST
940 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

CURRENTLY...
IR SATELLITE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WITH TS CLAUDETTE REMAINING SOUTH 
OF CUBA SO FAR...BUT BOTH SHEETS OF MID CLOUD WITH RAIN AS WELL AS 
SMALL SHOWER LINES HAVE FORMED AND MOVED NW INTO THE STRAITS SOUTH 
OF THE KEYS...ONLY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE KEYS. DIURNAL 
TSTMS WERE STRONG-LOOKING ON SATELLITE AND LONG-RANGE RADAR OVER 
EAST AND CENTRAL CUBA...BUT THESE SO FAR HAVE MOVED WEST OVER THE 
ISLAND OF CUBA. HOWEVER...AT THIS LATE HOUR...SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
STILL ARE ONGOING OVER CENTRAL CUBA...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY YET 
FORM OR STILL BE BEYOND RADAR DETECTION. THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS 
SPEWING FROM CLAUDETTE'S MAIN CONVECTION HAVE BLOWN OVER THE LOWER 
AND MID KEYS...AND ARE NOW MIGRATING EVEN TO THE UPPER KEYS. 
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN IN A SLIGHT LULL NEAR THE KEYS FROM LATE 
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...WITH C-MAN SITES REPORTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS 
10-15 KT FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT GUSTS 
EACH HOUR INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE...AND WINDS HAVE DEFINITELY PICKED 
UP A FEW KNOTS AT LOWER KEYS AND DRY TORTUGAS THE PAST HOUR OR SO...
RUNNING 17 KT AT DRY TORTUGAS AT LAST REPORT. DON'T HAVE ANY CURRENT 
QUICKSCAT WINDS NOR 00Z SHIP REPORTS IN THE STRAITS. 00Z KEY WEST 
SOUNDING HOWEVER MEASURED 1 AND 2 THSD FT WINDS EAST 19 AND 18 KT.
00Z KEY WEST SOUNDING SHOWS INCREASED MOISTURE...WITH PW UP TO 1.85 
INCH FROM THIS MORNINGS 1.66...MAINLY IT APPEARS DUE TO MID AND HIGH 
LEVEL MOISTURE. A DRY LAYER IS STILL SEEN BETWEEN 5 AND 12 THSD FT. 
MIAMI REMAINS EVEN DRIER. 


OVERNIGHT...
1030 PM COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WILL CONTAIN NO CHANGES FROM 
AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. 18Z MESOETA MODEL INDICATES A SLIGHT WIND 
INCREASE AT THE KEYS OVER NIGHT AS DID 12Z MODELS...AND ALL 
MODELS ARE REASONABLE IN PORTRAYING HIGHER WIND SPEEDS OUT IN THE 
STRAITS. SO...STRAITS AREAS WILL MAINTAIN A HEADLINE "SMALL CRAFT 
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION" FOR EXPECTATIONS OF E-SE WINDS 15-20 KT
AND SEAS 4-6 FT. PUBLIC ZONES WILL ONLY BE UPDATED TO REMOVE
MENTION OF "EVENING" WEATHER. I PROBABLY WILL NOT CHANGE THE 
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT POPS. IT'S TOO SOON NOT TO EXPECT SOME 
POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF EITHER CLAUDETTE FRINGES, OR CUBAN OUTFLOWS, OR 
SIMPLY THE NOCTURNALLY PREFERRED SHOWER-TIME BEFORE NIGHT IS OVER.


.EYW...NONE.

C.B.