AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 915 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2000 CURRENTLY A WARM FRONTAL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SOUTH FLORIDA IN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. A VORT MAX IS MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WELL WEST OF TAMPA. THE LASTEST RUC HAS THIS VORT MAX WEAKENING SOME LATE TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE MRH NORTH OF OUR AREA. 00Z SOUNDING STILL HAS DRY AIR ABOVE 815 MB. BELEIVE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY WHEN THE WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOW TOPPED SHOWERS WITH LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES. ALL IN ALL THE FAN POPS ARE NOT WORKING OUT SO THE NGM LOOKS MORE RELIABLE ATTM. FOR THE PM UPDATE...WILL DROP POPS TO <20 WESTERN PARTS AND 20% SOUTHEAST PARTS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLOUDYS ALONE. FOR THE TEMPS...WILL UP THEM A BIT ALL ZONES DUE TO TEMPS/DEWPTS CURRENTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND CLOUD COVER MOST OF NIGHT. BOUYS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST HAVE PICKED UP TO 20 KNOTS. WILL AMEND CWF FOR SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT. .MIA...SCA JUPITER INLET TO OCEAN REEF AND BISCAYNE BAY. fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 855 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2000 IN THE SHORT TERM...OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WITH SOME TWEAKING NEEDED. WITH MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...NO ADVISORIES OR WATCH ARE NEEDED. HOWEVER...PER DISCUSSIONS WITH JAX...FAR NE PARTS OF CWA IN GA...WHERE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL APPROACH NEAR FREEZING IN SPOTS...SOME SCATTERED FREEZING LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE. KAMG TEMP IN SE GA HAS STABILIZED AT 39 AS OVERCAST CLOUDS PRESENT. SOME WEAK CAA & EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA...BUT ATTM...BELIEVE IT WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS EAST OF CWA. ALSO...LATEST RUC FAVORS AREA TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING WITH SE FLOW & ALL THICKNESS INDICATORS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. LOW IN GULF MOVING EAST VERY SLOWLY. ALSO...RUC SHOWING A LULL IN PRECIP THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AS WELL AS IR SATELLITE IMAGES & AREA RADARS SHOWING PRECIP AREAS MORE NW & SE OF CWA. WILL UPDATE TO LOWER POPS A BIT. TEMPS LOOK GOOD. MARINE SCA STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH CURRENT BUOY DATA. .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...NONE. .FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 60 NM ALL MARINE ZONES. MCT fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 757 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2000 CURRENTLY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT EASTERLY FLOW HAS MODIFIED AIR MASS SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE PENINSULA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COASTAL TROUGH (WARM FRONT) FROM CANAVERAL NORTH. WEAK FRONT CURVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF. AREAS OF RAIN HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTHEAST...NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE BEST LIFT OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH HALF IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE GULF. MESO ETA SHOWS AREA OF RAIN OVER THE GULF DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH. LIKELY/GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA WILL HANDLE THIS OKAY IF IT MATERIALIZES. DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE ZONES. MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXIST OVER BOTH LEGS. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THE NEAR 20 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS...SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST MUCH... IF AT ALL. .MLB...SCA N OF COCOA. LASCODY fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1000 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2000 BANDED PCPN MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN THIRD OF FCST AREA ASSTD WITH INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORT WV AND DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILES. RUC SHOWS THIS WAVE QUITE WELL AND ALSO SHOWS A LUL IN MID LEVEL FORCING THIS AFTN. HOWEVER GUID KEEPS DECNET MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS AREA. CURRENT POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES TO THE N LOOKS GOOD AS 1ST BAND OF PCPN WL LKLY DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING MUCH PAST MLB. SECOND...RATHER WEAK...MID LEVEL FEATURE AND INCREASING UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE FROM COUPLED JET WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR PCPN TNT. MDLS IN DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH OF FORCING AND LOCATION OF MID LEVEL WAVE BUT POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF TRENDS MOVE TOWARDS ETA SOLUTION. TNX FOR COORD JAX. MARINE...LARGE GRADIENT IN WNDS SPEEDS N OF INVERTED SFC TROF/WAVE ALONG THE E COAST OF FL. SAUF REPORTING 20 TO 25KT WITH CANAVERAL BUOY LESS THAN 10KT. RUC/MESO-ETA SUGGESTS GRADIENT MAY TEND TO TIGHTEN OVER N WATERS AS INITIAL VORT PULLS OFF TO THE E. CURRENT FCST OF SCEC CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD. .MLB...NONE. BLOTTMAN fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 725 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2000 COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM WITH SPC OUTLOOKING THE FL PH AND SE AL IN DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK THROUGH 12Z. ALSO... OF MORE CONCERN IS WINTER WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALREADY HAVE RECIEIVED ISOLATED SLEET REPORTS FROM COFFEE COUNTY ALABAMA. ETA MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE HANDLED THE SFC SYNOPTIC FEATURES BEST AT 06Z AND ALSO ITS PRECIP AREAS. SO WILL LEAN TWD THAT MODEL. RUC AND ETA MODEL THICKNESS FIELDS FROM 850-700 MB SHOW WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA FROM 09Z TO 15Z. RUC AND ETA MODEL THICKNESS POINT TO PRECIP IN THE FROZEN VARIETY ACROSS OUR NRN AND NERN ZONES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND AREA REPORTS HOWEVER SUPPORT SLEET IN AREAS NOT COVERED BY EITHER RUC OR ETA MODEL FCST OF LOWER THICKNESSES. WILL GO WITH GROUND TRUTH ON THIS ONE...AND INCLUDE POSSIBLE SLEET MENTION IN MOST INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING. TONIGHT AND SAT...BIG FCST QUESTION IS WILL "WEDGE" HOLD IN OVER OUR XTRM NRN GA COUNTIES. WILL LEAN TWD YES AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE MORE S/W ENERGY ROTATE THOUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SO POPS WILL STAY FAIRLY HIGH. AT THE SFC...WARM FRONT NEVER QUITE MAKES A SOLID PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AND LOOKS LIKE OVERRUNNING WITH S/W ENERGY WILL CONT TO AFFECT THE FA. COORD WITH MOB AND ATL AND WILL LIKELY GO WITH WINTER WX ADVSIORY TODAY FOR PORTIONS SW GA. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR OUR NRN TIER OF GA COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF WEDGING HOLDING IN LONGER THAN ETA/NGM MODELS ELUDE TO. EXTENDED: WILL WAIT ON FMR NUMBERS FOR CHANGES. MARINE: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL MARINE ZONES. PRELIM... TLH 051/047 057/049 7765 PFN 054/047 061/051 6666 DHN 048/045 054/047 7776 ABY 043/037 050/045 7776 VLD 050/042 058/047 7766 .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY GENERALLY N OF A LINE FROM FT GAINES TO OCILLA/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING GENERALLY S OF A LINE FROM FT GAINES TO OCILLA. ...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT NORTH OF A LINE FROM FT GAINES TO OCILLA. .FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 60 NM ALL MARINE ZONES. MRV fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2000 WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN...MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INCLUDE MIN TEMPS AND HIGH CLOUDS. SFC HI PRES RDG ACRS WRN GRT LAKES REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVER UPR MI. IR LOOP SHOWED SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS NUDGING INTO WRN UPR MI WITH UPR LVL MOISTURE SQUEEZED BTWN CUTOFF LO OVER PLAINS AND H5 RDG OVER WRN LAKES. 03Z READINGS GENERALLY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO THE TEENS ALONG LK SUPERIOR. CLOUD TRENDS 00Z RUC FCST 300 RH SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY TO THE EAST...AFFECTING WEST HLF OF UPR MI. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIN CI DECK TO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT IMPACT RADIATIONAL COOLING. 00Z AREA SNDGS AND ETA/RUC FCST SNDGS AGAIN INDICATE VERY DRY LLVL MOISTURE PROFILE. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH CURRENT FCST ON TRACK...DO NOT PLAN ANY UPDATE. .MQT...NONE. JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1130 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2000 RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION NOT MIXING OUT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS EXTENDING ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM ABOUT PENTWATER TO SOUTH HAVEN... AND OTHER MISC PATCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MI. HARD TO FIND ANY REAL TREND TO THESE CLOUDS AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THEY WILL BEHAVE THIS AFTERNOON. RUC 925 MOISTURE PROG INDICATES THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE LAKESHORE...BUT WEAK SYNOPTIC WLY FLOW MAY PUSH THEM INLAND A BIT. UPDATED FCST TO GO WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BUT KEPT EVERYTHING ELSE AS IS. .GRR...NONE. MEADE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1120 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2000 MAIN PROBLEM ON UPDATE IS THE PERSISTENCE OF LAKE CLDS OVER THE FAR ERN COUNTIES IN NW FLOW AHD OF SFC-850 MB RDG. VIS SATL SHOWS REST OF UPR SUNNY...CENTERED UNDER RDG AXIS. 12Z SNDGS TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST INDICATE MASSIVE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE REACHING NR SFC WHILE APX SNDG SHOWS SUBSIDENCE INV JUST ABV 900 MB WITH TEMP AT BASE OF INV NR -13C. THIS LINGERING COLD AIR AROUND 900 MB PRODUCING INSTABILITY LAKE CLDS IN THE EAST. BELIEVE 12Z ETA AND RUC NOT RESOLVING COLDER POCKET OF AIR OVR ERN UPR TOO WELL THIS MORNING. THUS...CLDS PERSISTING LONGER THAN EXPECTED. YET...MODEL SNDGS DO INDICATE SUBSIDENCE INV CONTINUING TO LWR THRU AFT OVR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH ABUNDANT SUN...EXPECT CLDS TO GRADUALLY THIN. WL JUST HAVE TO ADJUST TIMING BACK A FEW HRS. MAX TEMPS NR 30 FM PREV FCST APPEAR ON TARGET BASED ON 12Z AREA SNDGS AND FCST GUIDANCE. THUS...WL ONLY UPDATE ERN COUNTIES FOR CLD WORDING. .MQT...NONE. VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1118 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2000 HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THE MOMENT...WITH INDIVIDUAL CENTERS OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. ADVANCING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY STRUGGLING TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE UPPER RIDGE...AND WE SHOULD NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT THESE CLOUDS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS NUDGES JUST EAST OF THE STATE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE THE CONCERN. HARD TO SEE SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS ON VISIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH THE SNOW FIELD IN PLACE...BUT THE CLOUDS ARE READILY SEEN ON THE FOG PRODUCT. PATCHES OF CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE 10 AM ALONG U.S. 27...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER THE THUMB AND SAGINAW BAY. WITH THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG INVERSION ABOUT 880MB...AND NOT A BIG WARMUP PLANNED FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO MIX OUT THESE CLOUDS. THE 06Z MESOETA AND 12Z RUC ACTUALLY CONTINUE WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE BELOW 900MB THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON OVER THE THUMB...WITH THIS MOISTURE PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON COURTESY OF THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THE 06Z MESOETA ALSO INDICATED A HINT OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SNEAKING INTO THE FAR WEST PART OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SAY FROM OWOSSO TO ADRIAN...BEFORE SWINGING BACK TOWARD THE WEST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES NORTH AND AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH THE SMATTERING OF CLOUDS OCCURRING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE TO DEVELOP OR MOVE IN EVEN FROM THE EAST OVER LAKE ERIE...WILL CALL FOR A PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE IN THE THUMB LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS BEFORE THE CLOUDS START TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME RISING FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DTX SOUNDING NOT SUPPORTING MUCH MORE THAN THE MID 20S. THANKS TO THE CLOUDS...PHN HAS RISEN TO 27 AS OF 11 AM... BUT THE CLIMB SHOULD BE LIMITED THERE...TOO. MID 20S SHOULD WORK NICELY...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THAT IN THE COLD AND WARM SPOTS...RESPECTIVELY. .DTX...NONE. DJF mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1000 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2000 TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THIS TIME THU AT MOST LOCATIONS...SO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS LOOK IN BALLPARK. DRY SELY FLOW AROUND STATIONARY HIGH PRES KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT TO SOUTH. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SLIGHTLY MORE HIGH LEVEL RH INTO SWRN PORTIONS WHICH TIES INTO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. WL ONLY UPDATE SW ZONES FOR NOW. .MSP...NONE KAVINSKY mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 907 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2000 ...ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE ICE BOX... TRENDS IN THE SFC AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AGAIN TONIGHT. A SECONDARY SFC HIGH PRES CENTER HAS DEVELOPED OVER ESTRN NC...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE SNOW PACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LGT-CALM AND REINFORCE THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 10-15 F RANGE. THE 00Z MHX SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY...INDICATIVE OF THE LARGE SCALE SUSBSIDENCE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEDGE OF DRY AIR IS KEEPING CLOUDS AT BAY AS THE LARGE AREA OF AC OVR SC HAS NOT MADE ANY PROGRESS NE. SOME CI IS STREAMING IN...BUT IT TOO WAS THINNING. RUC AND MESO-ETA RH FIELDS MATCH UP WELL WITH THESE OBSERVED TRENDS. SO WILL OPT FOR A MSTLY CLR FCST TONIGHT ALL BUT EXTREME SRN ZONES. WILL BREAK OUT A RANGE FOR MINS OVERNIGHT WITH BOTTOM END A CATEGORY BELOW CURRENT FCST. DO NOT HAVE MUCH TO ADD TO 3-4TH PERIOD FCST DILEMMA BUT FEEL THAT FCST OF A WINTRY MIX TO ALL RAIN ON SUNDAY LOOKS GOOD. AMOUNT OF QPF- DURATION OF ZR/PL MAIN QUESTIONS FOR MID SHIFT (AND HOPEFULLY) THE 00Z GUIDANCE TO ANSWER. STAY TUNED. BASED ON SFC PATTERN AND TREND IN MARINE OBS...A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FCST ARE IN ORDER. WILL BRING WINDS SPEEDS DOWN ABOUT 5 KNOTS ACROSS THE BOARD AS THE SFC HIGH HAS DECREASED P-GRAD. ALSO WILL CHANGE DIR NRN WATERS TO NW VS N. MHX...NONE. ELARDO nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC ISSUED BY NWS COLUMBIA SC 1000 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2000 SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD AND DRY HI PRES AT SFC BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS. VIS SHOWS MID LEVEL CLDS BLANKETING THE AREA. RUC KEEPS HIGH MID LEVEL RH THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT FCST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND WILL LET STAND PRETTY MUCH AS IS. .GSP...WINTER STORM WATCH NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065- SCZ001>007-010>012-047-GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. CAMMARATA sc SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 300 AM MST SAT JAN 29 2000 ...FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COVERAGE OF FOG... CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR PICTURES SHOWS SNOW HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRATUS DECK IS MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS REMAINING OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOG IS FILLING IN BEHIND CLEARING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING. QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD/DENSE WILL IT BE FOR THIS MORNING AND WILL IT WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AS OF 09Z...JUST ENOUGH WRAP AROUND STRATUS AND WEAK WEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ACCORDING TO VAD AND GRANADA PROFILER TO KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. WILL WATCH THIS EVOLUTION AS ZONE ISSUANCE TIME APPROACHES AND WILL MAKE ANY NECESSARY LAST MINUTE DECISIONS. FOR NOW...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE SHOULD SUFFICE...AND MAY MENTION DENSE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...LXV STILL REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW...PROBABLY A COMBINATION OF WEAK DYNAMICS AND WEAK UPSLOPE IN NORTHWEST FLOW. TODAY...WEST WINDS SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH RUC CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING MOISTURE SLOSHING OUT SOMETIME BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. SO FINALLY EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAY HAVE TO HANG ON TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN ZONES 58 AND 59 MAINLY THIS MORNING DUE TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE. FWC TEMPS LOOK TO COOL EVEN WITH FOR SNOW COVERED AREAS AND PLAN TO GO ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES...ONE ROTATING DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST WY INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER UNDER-CUTTING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH INTO SUNDAY WILL NOT BRING MUCH AFFECT EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT MOSTLY OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS...HOWEVER WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IT MAY BE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE. PLAN TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE ZONES FOR NOW AND LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THIS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLD TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT. THEN A REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH FWC TEMPS STILL LOOKING TOO COOL. EXTENDED... NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ENTER THE PICTURE MOVES IN OFF THE WEST COAST INTO WESTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OFF THE AVN SHOWS A PRETTY THICK MOIST LAYER WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING DECENT UPSLOPE TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. I WONDER HOW OVERDONE THIS MOISTURE MIGHT BE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MRF/ECMWF KEEPS THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY QUICK MOVING EXITING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO KEEPING THE PLAINS UNDER A DOWNSLOPE PATTERN. CURRENT EXTENDED LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES. .PUB...NONE. KT co WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 153 AM MST SAT JAN 29 2000 LARGE UPPER LOW OVER MIDWEST ROTATING WEAK VORT LOBES OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES CAUSING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SATELLITE SHOWS THESE DISSIPATING AND SLIDING SLOWLY EAST AS PER RUC MODEL. MAIN MODELS PROJECTING RELATIVELY DRY RIDGE OVER CWA SAT BEING QUICKLY UNDERCUT SAT NGT AND SUN BY REMNANTS OF SYSTEM NOW APPROACHING SRN CA COAST. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON WRN CO/ERN UT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AZ/NM. SLOW THICKNESS INCREASES IN ALL MODELS WITH LITTLE CLD COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND. END OF AVN AND MIDRANGE MODELS CLOSER TO CONSENSUS ON NEXT REGIONAL WEATHER CHANGE BEGINNING FIRST OF THE WEEK. STRONG JET TO CARRY WET BUT RELATIVELY WARM SYSTEM ASHORE SUNDAY...REACHING ERN UT BY SUN NGT AND WRN CO MON MORNING. THEN SEVERAL DISTURBANCE KEEP PCPN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SO WILL BE CHANGING THAT TONIGHT. FROM MON THRU FRI THE FLOW APPEARS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ZONAL AND WET. CUOCO WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORMAL LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY. .GJT...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 315 AM EST SAT JAN 29 2000 ...SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SRN LOWER BY NOON SUNDAY... MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. ACTUALLY THE AVN HAS DONE THE BEST OF THE CONTINUITY OF THE SFC AND UPPER AIR SYSTEM ASSOC WITH THIS SRN STREAM STORM SYSTEM. EVEN SO... THE AVN PRECIPITATION FIELDS LEAVE A LOT TO BE DESIRED. 00Z ETA PRECIPITATION FCST FOR 06Z DID THE BEST OF THE RUC...NGM...AVN AND ETA (SINCE SNOW WAS FALLING OVER CTNL IOWA AND ONLY THE ETA REALLY FORECAST THAT. SO NGM PCPN THROWN OUT AS OBNOXIOUS! ALSO THE AVN BRINGS THE PCPN INTO LWR MI TO FAST GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR FEEDING INTO THE LWR MI SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE EAST...THEN MOVES IT OUT TO FAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY CONSIDERING THE UPPER AIR SYSTEM IS STILL TO OUR SOUTH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY AND THERE IS STILL DEEP MOISTURE AROUND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON (ON THE AVN). THE DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST IS A TYPICAL PROBLEM. THE SYSTEM DOES HAVE OVER 1/2 INCH PWAT ASSOC WITH IT AND THE ISENTROPIC METHOD WOULD SUGGEST 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SRN COUNTIES. WITH 30 40 KNOTS OF 850 INFLOW FROM THE GULF... THIS WILL OVERCOME THAT PROBLEM OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY MID DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN MI WILL BE IN THE COLD CONVEYER BELT AREA OF THE SYSTEM AND ALSO BE IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE... WITH REASONABLE Q-G FORCING TO BOOT... COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES I-94 AREA SUNDAY AND 1 TO 3 INCHES I-94 TO I-96. AREAS NORTH OF THAT WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE BAND MOVES NWD AND DISSIPATES OVER NRN 1/3 OF LWR MI SUN AFTERNOON. TILL THEN...INCREASING CLOUDINESS TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO OUR EAST AND THE MOISTURE SLOWLY DEEPENS. NRN AREAS WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING... INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR MOS. TONIGHT... MOSTLY CLOUDY EVERYWHERE AND WILL HAVE LOWS NEAR MOS N AND ABOVE MOS SOUTH DUE TO THICK CLOUDS MOVING IN. COORDINATION WITH DTX AND APX. ZONES BY 345 AM. WDM EXTENDED DISCUSSION AVN/MRF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE ODD MODEL OUT. LOOKS LIKE SW LWR WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW MOVG UP THE EAST COAST WILL NOT BE A PLAYER IN OUR WX. HOWEVER, THE UPR LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL OVER THE ERN LAKES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY NITE/MON MORNING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW SUN NITE BUT LES SHOULDN'T BE A FACTOR WITH H8 TEMPS ONLY AROUND -8C. UPR RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL KEEP A GENERAL DRY NW FLOW OVER THE REGION MON-WED. SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER SW LOWER MONDAY AND TUES AND MOST OF WED BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SPREADS WAA CLOUDS OUR WAY LATE WED. WILL NOT CHANGE THE FCST MUCH. GOING TEMP FCST LOOKS OK. .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 342 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2000 THE SECOND DAY OF CRNT MULTI DAY SNOWFALL EVENT IS BECMG A TEAM EFFORT IN TERMS OF NUMBER OF SMALL CONTRIBUTIONS FM VARIETY OF FORCING MECHANISMS. AS OF 0830 UTC 88-D INDICATES SVRL AREAS OF -SN ARND CWA. FIRST IN WRN ZNS ENHANCEMENT INCRG ALG STATE LN FM ATCHISON KS SWRD THRU KC METRO AND ALG HIGHWAY 71 TO BUTLER. 0600 UTC RUC DATA SUGGESTS WEAK AREA OF H7-H5 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALG AXIS OF MID LVL CAA. ALL MODELS BRING AXIS OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONTOGENESIS ACR WRN CWA BY 1800 UTC. TEMPTED TO FINESE FCST BY GOING WITH SN THIS AM THEN NO PCPN OR JUST FLURRIES THIS PM. HOWEVER WITH ANY BRKS IN SC DECK LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH TO IGNITE LCL CNVTV SNOWFALLL. WILL STAY WITH LIKELY POP ALL DAY WITH ADDITIONAL INCH ACCUMULATION PSBL. THINK THAT NW MO CAN GET BY WITH CHC POP FOR -SN AND LTL ACCUMULATION. ACR ERN ZNS WILL GO WITH SN ADVSY FOR TDY AND TNGT. ALL MODELS FCST PERSISTANT ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THIS EVNG. ETA MVS AREA OF H3 DVRGNC NWRD WITH SW FLW ALG E SIDE OF UPR LO WHICH SHLD ENHANCE PCPN. LATEST 88-D RETURNS SHW ENHANCEMENT ALG AND S OF 50 HIGHWAY WITH THIS FEATURE. MOST LOCATIONS ALREADY HAVE 1-3" ON THE GROUND AND VARIOUS EMPIRICAL RULES SUGGEST AN ADDITONAL 2" TDY. SO WILL POST 3-5" TOTAL ENDNING TNGT. INHERITED DRY FCST FOR TNGT AND SUN IN W. EVEN TOUGH FRONTOGENTIC FORCING AXIS FCST TO BE E OF ERN KS/WRN MO THIS EVNG WITH MENTIONED LAPSE RATES STILL CONCERNED ABT -SNSH ACTIVITY. MOST LIKELY WILL NOT INSERT POPS BUT WILL INSERT FLURRIES. MID TROPOSPHERIC WAA IN W ON SUN PORTENDS WELL FOR DRY FCST. IN E WILL BOOST POPS TNGT INTO LIKELY CATEGORY AS MODELS SUGGEST H7H3 CNVGNC OF Q-VECT LINGERING OVR NE MO. WILL KEEP LO POP IN E FOR SUN DUE TO PSBL CNVTV -SNSH UNDR UPR LO. WITH MOD TO STG CAA IN W AND SN THRU MUCH OF DAY IN E DO NOT XPCT MUCH TEMP RISE. WILL MOST LIKELY USE TEMPS HOLDING ARND 20 IN W AND 20-25 E. GUIDANCE TEMPS IN BALLPARK AND WILL NOT STRAY FAR FM THRU FCST PRD. QUICK PEAK AT 0000 UTC SEF CAN PSBL WAA PCPN EVENT ARND MIDWEEK. WILL MAKE NO CHGS. THANKS STL/TOP FOR COORDINATION .EAX... KS...NONE. MO...SN ADVSY TDY AND TNGT ZNS 7-8-16-17-24-25-32-33-39-40-45-46-54 BODNER mo NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR 230 PM PST FRI JAN 28 2000 LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE BASIN AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED THIS EVENING AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER SE WASHINGTON...ACCORDING TO THE RUC MODEL. EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD IN THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MOST PLACES DOWN TO SINGLE DIGITS. LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AREAL EXTENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ON SUNDAY. 12Z RUNS DIFFER ON POSITION OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE AND 850MB. ETA IS SLOWEST AND IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW. OVERALL EFFECT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN CENTRAL OREGON. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD A GHOST PERIOD TO THE EXTENDED. MODELS DO NOT SHOW STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE SO PRECIPIATION WILL FALL AS SNOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR CONTINUED THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW. SMITH PDT 0001 ALW 0001 PSC 0001 YKM 0001 .KPDT...WSR-88D...VCP 32/CSR 21...DOWN FOR PREVENTATIVE MAINTENANCE. .KPDT...NONE. or AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 925 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2000 NOT A LOT OF NEW INFORMATION YET. MESOETA LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO 12Z ETA. 21Z RUC IS FARTHERST S WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF BY 09Z. SOME HIGH CLDS HAVE MOVED INTO NW NC...EXPECT AC TO ARRIVE IN SW HALF OF CWA BETWEEN 06-12Z. LYH DROPPED OFF QUICKLY AT SUNSET. LYH/DAN/MTV ARE COLDER NOW THAN SAME TIME LAST NIGHT SO WL DROP LOWS IN THESE AREAS. NO CHANGES TO REST OF FCST. .RNK WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-WVZ 042>045 AMS va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 200 PM MST FRI JAN 28 2000 WV IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW UPPER VORTEX MOVG SE INTO NERN CO. SFC HI BLDG OVR SWRN WY. CONDITIONS ATTM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY XCPT IN FAR EAST WHERE CLOUDS HANGING TUF. STLT SHOWS CLOUDS SLOWLY BRKG UP AS UPR SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOVING UPPER LOW E ACRS GRT PLAINS WHILE BRINGING IN W CST UPR RIDGE AND BLDG SFC HI OVR CWA. H5 FLO TO BECOME SPLIT AROUND WY HR48-60. LUKS TO BE A DRY AND SEASONBLY COLD WEEKEND. GENERALLY FOLLOWING FWC TEMPS THO MAY GO COLDER MINS AND SOME MAXES E OF DVD. RIW FWC MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN ERRATIC LAST SVRL DAYS AND DONT GIVIT MUCH CREDENCE. XTND...MRF MDL CONTINUES TREND OF SHORT RANGE MDLS AND DEVELOPS OMEGA "BLOCK" OVER NWRN US PLAINS AND SRN CANADA BY SUN/SUN NT WHICH DOESNT BLOCK BUT MOVES EAST THRU PD. MRF DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS TIL LAST 2 RUNS. HAVENT BEEN ABLE TO ACCESS OTHER MDLS...BUT LATEST PMDEPD TENDS TO LEAN TOWARD MRF DIGGING NEG TROF OVER WEST COAST AND THEN MVG E. MY CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRSV SPD OF SYSTEMS IS LACKING...BUT WL GNLY FOLLOW MRF WHICH MEANS UNSETTLED WX OVER WRN CWA DRG XNTD PD AND GENRLY DRY DOWNSLOPE WX EAST. .RIW...NONE. DZ wy AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 935 AM EST SAT JAN 29 2000 A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEARING S OF KPNS ALONG COLD FRONT...AND ALSO NE OF KMGM AHEAD OF WELL-DEFINED UPPER JET STREAK MOVING E OVER THE WRN GULF STATES AT THIS TIME. SURFACE DATA SHOW LOW JUST SW OF KPNS WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING N OVER THE ERN GULF TOWARD OUR COAST. THIS CURRENT POSITION OF LOW AND COLD FRONT IS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE TIMING OF THE MANUAL PROGS FROM LAST NIGHT/S MODEL RUNS. 12Z RUC PROGS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF WARM FRONT TODAY WHILE IT LIFTS N INTO THE CWA THANKS TO INDIRECT CIRCULATION AHEAD OF APPROACHING JET STREAK. LIFT FROM UPPER JET SUPPORT TO BE COMPLEMENTED BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN ZONES WHERE HIGHEST DEEP LAYER RH VALUES RESIDE. RADAR AND METARS ALREADY SUPPORT THIS WITH LIGHT RAIN OVER OUR NRN GA ZONES. ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST POPS COULD BE LOWERED OVER SOME OF OUR SRN ZONES...WILL WATCH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS A WHILE LONGER BEFORE ZONE UPDATES TO SEE IF WARM FRONTOGENESIS AND APPROACHING JET STREAK CAN INCREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE: SURFACE LOW PROGGED BY RUC TO OCCUPY OUR WRN COASTAL WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS. PENSACOLA SOUTH BUOY STILL SHOWS 7 FT SEAS...SO WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR WATERS W OF KAQQ. INPUT ALWAYS WELCOME. .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...NONE. .FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 60 NM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN. TJT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 853 AM MST SAT JAN 29 2000 88D SHOWS PRECIP WINDING DOWN AS WK VORT OVR WRN NE DRIFTS S. RUC SHOWS SECOND WK WV OVR SE SD MOVING SLOWLY W ALONG WITH ENHANCED CLD TOPS ON IR. LEFT -SN OVR ERN ZONES ALONG WITH FG...BUT DROPPED PRECIP TO FLURRIES IN WRN SD AND NONE IN NE WY. WNDS AND TEMPS STILL LOOKED IN THE BALL PARK...SO DIDN'T ADJUST THOSE. .UNR...NONE. BAILEY sd DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 955 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2000 CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS SOUNDING THIS MORNING INDICATED 20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERRIDING THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. RADAR IS FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW SOME VERY WEAK RETURNS UNDER 20 DBZ. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOWEVER ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE. IF THIS OCCURS WE WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 30S BECAUSE OF THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THE INCREASE IN RETURNS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING WEAK S/W TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS MEXICO. WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SOME MIDDLE 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. WILL ALSO LOWER WINDS A BIT AS MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS WIND SHOULD STAY IN THE 15 KNOT RANGE. WILL ALSO INCLUDE WORDING OF CURRENT WINDCHILLS. WILL KEEP THE SCEC UP FOR THE BAY AND OFFSHORE AS BUOY IS STILL IN THE 5 FOOT RANGE AND LATEST RUC AND ETA SHOW WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. 69 .BRO...NONE. tx TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 257 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2000 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO. WE WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE ON WHERE TO MENTION LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT LEAST MAKING IT THROUGH THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE PANHANDLES. NEXT SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT PACKS AS MUCH PUNCH AS EARLIER THOUGHT. THE VORTICITY WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO GETS CHANNELED WITHIN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLES. SO WE WILL BE TAKING OUT THE LOW POPS THAT WE HAVE IN THE FORECAST. WE WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES...BUT DO NOT THINK THAT THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE PANHANDLES WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM JET. NEXT SHORT OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND. THEN A MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE PANHANDLES WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW ON MONDAY. SO WE WILL NOT INSERT PRECIP FOR MONDAY...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM TO SEE IF COMES INTO THE COAST STRONGER THAN WHAT IS PROGGED. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE HEIGHTS START TO RISE OVER THE PANHANDLES. A FEW NUMBERS TO PONDER DHT 35/16 46/20 49 000 AMA 36/18 45/21 48 000 BVR 33/14 40/19 47 000 .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. GOEHRING tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 245 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2000 FORECAST CHALLENGE -- RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY -- WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH THE POLAR JET LOCATED OVER NRN CANADA AND A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE SRN STATES. AN UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO JETS IS VERY SLOWLY TRANSLATING E. EXIT REGION OF STRONG EWD-MOVING JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY OVER MS/AL. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN WELL REPRESENTED BY THE MODELS. RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO OUR COASTAL WATERS ALONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW SE OF KPNS. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF RAIN OVER OUR NRN ZONES IN AREA OF BEST LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. MANY METAR STATIONS OVER OUR CWA ARE REPORTING BR AND SEEING POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION AS WARM FRONT E OF LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT N. --FORECAST-- TONIGHT - WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING N THROUGH CWA WHILE UPPER VORT LOBE ROTATES NE AROUND UPPER LOW AWAY FROM CWA. LATEST RUC CONFINES PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL WATERS IN WARM SECTOR AND IN NRN GA ZONES N OF LIFTING WARM FRONT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN ZONES...WITH MENTION OF FOG MANY AREAS. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT - SURFACE LOW TO STRETCH NE WHILE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AREA. WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. EXPECT A VERY GRADUAL W-E DECREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ERN ZONES LIKELY STAYING CLOUDY ALL DAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING SHOULD FINALLY DRY OUT LOWER LEVELS. MONDAY - AM THINKING ABOUT LEFTOVER POPS EARLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE... FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS. AGREE WITH GUIDANCE ON MAKING THIS DAY COLDER THAN SUNDAY FOR EASTERN ZONES. MARINE - SURFACE LOW HAS ALREADY WEAKENED WINDS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE. AS THE PENSACOLA BUOY SHOWS WINDS AND SEAS STILL TRENDING DOWN...WILL KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION MENTIONED TONIGHT FOR FIRST PERIOD FOR OUTER WATERS W OF KAQQ. NEXT CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED -- (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) AFTER BRIEF RESPITE FROM MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG NEXT BATCH OF UPPER SUPPORT TO COME WITH AMPLIFYING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD CROSS CWA WED AND EXIT THURSDAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR END OF EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. THANKS FOR COORDINATION FFC. ADDITIONAL INPUT IS WELCOME. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... TLH 054/061 038/058 551- PFN 057/064 042/056 421- DHN 048/054 034/051 43-- ABY 043/054 035/051 5421 VLD 051/066 038/054 5421 .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...NONE. .FL...NONE. TJT fl