OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS March 12, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is published four times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. AES-13. Please note that this release does not contain the graphics contained in the printed version of OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #AES, $17/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 1997 AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST RAISED $1 BILLION TO $56.5 BILLION The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. agricultural exports is raised $1 billion to $56.5 billion, reflecting actual shipments to date and changed prospects since December. Stronger than expected export volume and prices of soybeans and cotton will more than offset reduced prospects of wheat and livestock exports. Forecast exports for soybeans and products and cotton are raised $800 million and $500 million, respectively, largely reflecting heavy shipments to China, the European Union, and Mexico. Forecast total export volume is reduced slightly to 145.4 million tons. U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1997 are expected at $34 billion, unchanged from the previous forecast. The coffee import value is higher than previously indicated, largely because of rising prices due to low stocks in consuming countries and uncertain South American supplies. Higher beef imports are offset by lower expected live animal imports. The fiscal 1997 agricultural trade surplus forecast is raised $1 billion to $22.5 billion. This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the February 12, 1997, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and released February 24, 1997. Contents Fiscal 1997 Agricultural Export Forecast Raised $1 Billion to $56.5 Billion Commodity Highlights Economic Outlook Regional Highlights U.S. Agricultural Export Programs Import Highlights Tables Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years 1992-97 Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1995-97 Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1995-97 Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1995-97 Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 1995-97 Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports: Volume by commodity, 1995-97 Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 1995-97 Coordinator (ERS): Joel Greene (202) 219-0816; Commercial Agriculture Division; Economic Research Service (ERS) Coordinators (FAS): Michael Dwyer (202) 720-3124; Ernest Carter (202) 720-2922; Office of Deputy Administrator Commodity and Marketing Programs; Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) U.S. Department of Agriculture; Washington, D.C. 20250. The forecasts in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports are based on information provided by the following analysts in the Commercial Agriculture division of the Economic Research Service and in the Commodity Divisions of the Foreign Agricultural Service. Editorial support is furnished by Martha R. Evans, Information Services Division, ERS. All telephone numbers are area code 202. ERS: Karen Ackerman (Export Programs, 501-8511); Ed Allen (Wheat and Coarse Grains, 219-0831); Mark Ash (Oilseeds, 219-0712); Nathan Childs (Rice, 501-8513); Mark Gehlhar (Imports, 501-8525); Ronald Gustafson (Beef, 219-0848); Mildred Haley (Pork, 219-0833); David Harvey (Poultry, 219-0839); John Love (Horticultural Products, 219-1268); Stephen MacDonald (Cotton, 219-1179); Stacey Rosen (Food Aid, 501-8445). FAS: Peter Burr (Tobacco and Seeds, 720-9497); Alan Holz (Oilseeds, 720-0143); Linda Kotschwar (Grains and Feeds, 690-4134); Dee Linse (Export Programs, 720-9847); Nancy Morrison (Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry, 720-8252); Debra Pumphrey (Horticultural and Tropical Products, 720-8899); Anita Regmi (Cotton, 720-9510). Regional information can be provided by the following analysts in the Commercial Agriculture Division, ERS: Chris Bolling (Brazil, 219-0668); Nancy Cochrane (Central and Eastern Europe, 219-0650); Hunter Colby (China, 219-0669); Frederick Crook (Hong Kong, 219-0002); John Dyck (Japan and South Korea, 219-0698); Anwarul Hoque (South Asia, 219-0665); Sophia Wu Huang (Taiwan, 219-0679); Elizabeth Jones (European Union, 219-0619); Michael Kurtzig (North Africa and the Middle East, 219-0636); Daniel Plunkett (Mexico, 219-0670); Sharon Sheffield (Newly Independent States, 219-0019); Jim Stout (Canada, 219-0678); Gary Vocke (Southeast Asia, 501-5575). The Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports is published in February, May, August, and November/December. The next quarterly summary is scheduled for release on May 29, 1997. Commodity Highlights The fiscal 1997 volume forecast for U.S. wheat and flour exports is lowered from USDA's December estimate of 22 million tons to 21.1 million tons, and export value is reduced $300 million to $3.6 billion. Upward revisions in wheat production and export estimates for Argentina, Australia, and the European Union (EU-15), along with reduced import needs by China, translate into larger global supplies and a downward revision in world prices. Argentina and Australia have harvested what is expected to be their largest wheat crops on record. The EU-15 continues to use export subsidies to move some of its record 1996 wheat crop into foreign markets. The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. coarse grain shipments is lowered 1 million tons from December's forecast to 55 million tons, but value is unchanged at $7.3 billion. The corn export forecast is reduced $100 million to $6.4 billion, due to a 1-million-ton reduction in export volume to 48.5 million tons. The downward revision in U.S. corn shipments is due to greater than previously expected production and export competition from Argentina and China. The availability of foreign feed-quality wheat also continues to constrain U.S. export prospects. The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. rice exports is raised 100,000 tons and $100 million from the December forecast to 2.4 million tons valued at $1 billion. Export prices are revised upward due to very tight supplies of U.S. long grain rice, as well as the limited availability of high-quality international supplies. U.S. export volume is revised upward, largely due to an upward revision in Latin American and EU-15 import demand for long grain rice. The forecast for fiscal 1997 exports of U.S. oilseeds and products is raised 900,000 tons and $900 million from the December estimate to 33.6 million tons valued at $10.7 billion. This improved outlook is based on an upward revision in soybeans and soybean meal export volumes and prices. The forecast for soybean exports is raised 700,000 tons and $700 million to 24.4 million tons valued at $7.1 billion. The soybean meal forecast is raised 300,000 tons and $200 million to 6 million tons valued at $1.5 billion. Soybean and product prices are higher due to a downward revision in the U.S. soybean crop since December and an upward revision in foreign demand. Foreign demand for soybeans and products is raised due to an increased EU-15 soybean import forecast and a stronger than anticipated demand for soybeans and meal among Asian Pacific Rim countries. A substantial rise in China's imports of oilseeds and products is expected given its 1996 oilseed harvest is significantly below the previous year's record. The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. cotton exports is raised 100,000 tons and $500 million from the December forecast to 1.5 million tons valued at $2.6 billion. The improved outlook is mainly due to reduced competition from major foreign suppliers, and increased imports by Brazil and China. Production and export estimates for Central Asian suppliers and Pakistan were revised downward, and much of their available higher quality cotton has already been shipped. Argentina's production and exports were also reduced. World prices have risen since December, making U.S. cotton more competitive in the export market. The forecast for fiscal 1997 exports of U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry products is reduced $200 million from the December forecast but remains a record $12.2 billion. The U.S. beef and pork export forecast remains unchanged at a record 1.5 million tons, but export value is lowered $200 million from the December estimate to $4.7 billion. If the slowdown in beef sales to Japan continues, the annual increase in U.S. red meat sales to Japan in recent years cannot be sustained in 1997. The pace of Japan's beef imports from all countries has slowed as a result of consumer concern over food safety issues; in particular, the BSE scare in the United Kingdom and Japan's outbreak of E. coli. Additionally, the dampening impact of Japan's import safeguard measures on pork shipments are expected to continue until the measures are lifted on July 1. The export forecast for poultry and products remains unchanged at a record $3 billion despite a slight upward revision in poultry meat export volume to 2.7 million tons. Somewhat lower prices for leg quarters are now expected. Russia, China, and Hong Kong underpin foreign demand for U.S. broiler parts. The forecast for fiscal 1997 exports of U.S. horticultural products remains unchanged at a record $10.5 billion. The outlook for fresh and processed fruit, vegetables, and tree nuts remains unchanged from the December forecast. Events to watch for in coming months include lower almond prices resulting from a larger domestic crop, and rising grapefruit shipments resulting from a large Florida citrus crop. The fiscal 1997 forecast for horticultural products, up 5 percent from 1996, is based on steady growth to key Asian Pacific Rim countries and Canada, and the expectation of continued sales recovery to Mexico. Export growth to Japan, the third largest horticultural export market after Canada and the EU-15, is expected to remain slow due to the relative strength of the dollar. Economic Outlook At a projected 2.7-percent growth rate, the outlook for 1997 world real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is slightly lower than previously expected in December. Much of the reduction is attributed to reduced expectations in Japan and the EU-15. Japan's economy is now expected to grow only 1.6 percent in 1997, compared with the estimate of 2.2 percent last quarter, as weak domestic demand slowed Japan's economy at the end of 1996, and tight fiscal policy is expected to further curb growth in 1997. Growth expectations for the EU-15 in 1997 have been lowered from 2.6 percent to 2.1 percent. Growth projections in Canada and Mexico are unchanged at 2.8 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively. East and Southeast Asia are expected to grow at 7.1 percent, slightly less than before, but China is expected to grow 9.4 percent, slightly higher than previously expected. Since the December forecast, the dollar has appreciated vis-a-vis the Japanese yen and the German mark, effectively raising the price of U.S.exports. However, lower commodity prices in 1997, especially for grains, should moderate some of the effects of the appreciating dollar. The dollar averaged 109 yen in 1996, 118 in January 1997, and has traded in the low 120's so far in February 1997. The dollar also appreciated about 5 percent against the German mark in 1996, averaging 1.5 marks per dollar. The January average was 1.6 marks per dollar, and has also traded higher in February. Regional Highlights The most significant export revisions for U.S. agricultural exports were to China, Mexico, and the EU-15, because of changes in the commodity outlook, particularly for soybeans and cotton. Exports to Canada and South Korea are raised $100 million each to $6.2 billion and $3.3 billion, respectively, to reflect the pace of U.S. exports so far in 1997. Exports to Japan are reduced $100 million to $11.4 billion because of low exports of consumer food items, especially red meats. Export forecasts to Africa and Southeast Asia are also reduced to $2.1 billion and $3 billion, respectively. Forecast exports to China are raised $600 million to $2 billion. Compared with a year ago, first-quarter exports rose 50 percent to $777 million. Increased demand for soybeans and products and improved prospects for cotton exports account for much of the expected gain. Cotton export forecasts were revised upward as expected import taxes and prohibitions developed into strong import purchases by joint-venture mills. Increased shipments of both red and poultry meats and horticultural products also raise expected exports to China. U.S. exports to Mexico are raised $400 million to $5.5 billion in 1997 as exports continue to expand in 1997. U.S. exports during October-December 1996 reached $1.4 billion, 42 percent more than a year earlier. Mexico is expected to import more soybeans and products and cotton, but much of the gain is expected to be in high-value products. The United States is likely to ship more meat and horticultural products to Mexico, as export growth continues to surge ahead since mid-1996. Exports to the EU-15 are revised upward $200 million to $9 billion largely because of increased demand for soybeans and soybean products. U.S. agricultural exports through December were $2.9 billion, 5 percent higher than a year earlier. Shipments of poultry meat, fruit juice, pet food, and planting seeds have been strong during the first quarter of fiscal 1997, and higher valued almonds have boosted tree nut exports. U.S. Agricultural Export Programs Export Subsidy Programs Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) sales picked up in late 1996 and early 1997. In fiscal 1997, as of February 19, 1997, 809 tons of butterfat, 951 tons of cheese, 996 tons of whole milk, and 18,968 tons of nonfat dry milk were sold to countries in Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Central and South America, the Newly Independent States, and the Middle East. DEIP bonuses totaled $16.5 million for the same period. There continues to be no sales under the Export Enhancement Program in fiscal 1997. CCC Export Credit Guarantee Programs The value of country allocations under the fiscal 1997 Export Credit Guarantee Program (GSM-102) increased by $426 million from November 1996 through January 31, 1997. In addition, the GSM-102 allocation of $500 million for Mexico was increased by $300 million as the value of applications received rose to $480.4 million. Pakistan's GSM-102 allocation was increased by $100 million to $174 million. The value of GSM-102 guarantee applications received for Pakistan totaled $121.6 million as of January 31, 1997. Lastly, the original GSM-102 allocation to the Russian Federation of $30 million was increased by $20 million as Russian importers of chilled meat, processed meat products, and wheat and wheat flour boosted the value of applications received to $26.5 million. U.S. Food Aid Programs The U.S. Food for Peace program, or Public Law 480 (P.L. 480), uses appropriated funds to provide U.S. agricultural assistance to countries at different levels of economic development. The P.L. 480 program is comprised of three titles. Title I is administered by USDA, while Titles II and III are administered by the U.S. Agency for International Development (AID). The 1997 appropriation for Title I and Food for Progress programs funded with Title I funds totaled $240.8 million, marking a 24-percent cut from 1996. Appropriations for Title II increased slightly to $837 million, while those for Title III fell to $29.5 million. Preliminary allocations of $205 million for 21 countries have been announced for Title I (including the Food for Progress portion using Title I funds). This will provide approximately 564,000 tons of wheat, and smaller quantities of rice, vegetable oil, oilseed meal, and tallow. The countries with the largest allocations are Jordan and Georgia, with $21 million and $20 million, respectively. Currently, the countries expected to receive commodity donations under Food for Progress Title I funded programs for fiscal 1997 are Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, and Tajikistan. Import Highlights U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1997 are projected at $34 billion, unchanged from the December projection. A stronger U.S. dollar has supported the overall growth of imports in the first quarter. Year-to-date imports were up across all categories except for coffee and live animals. The total value of imports for the first quarter was $8.6 billion, $1.1 billion higher than a year ago. U.S. cattle liquidation continued through early 1997, providing ample supplies of slaughter cattle. Projected imports of live animals in fiscal 1997 are $1.6 billion, down $100 million from the December projection. Year-to-date red meat imports, consisting largely of lower grade meat, were up 8 percent from a year ago. Red meat imports are projected at $2.3 billion for fiscal 1997, up from the projected $2.2 billion in December. Total imports of animals and products are projected at $6.2 billion for 1997. Imports of most horticultural items have continued at an anticipated pace except for wine and beer which slowed in early fiscal 1997. Horticultural product imports are expected to reach $12.5 billion in fiscal 1997, unchanged from the December forecast. Imported grain value was up 48 percent from a year ago in the first quarter. The grain import projection was revised upward from 3.9 million tons in December to 4.1 million tons. Feed and grain products were lower than expected in the first 3 months of 1997 and are projected at $2 billion for a yearend total, down from the projected $2.1 billion in December. Total grains and feed are projected at $2.7 billion for the year. Coffee prices are expected to rise in fiscal 1997 because of low stocks in consuming countries and uncertainty about the size of the South American coffee crop. Coffee imports are projected at 1.1 million tons and the import value is expected to reach $3.1 billion, a $200-million increase over the December forecast. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1992-1997 -- Year ending September 30 -- Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Forecast Item 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Fiscal 1997 Dec. Feb. -- Billion dollars -- Exports 42.5 42.7 43.9 54.6 59.8 55.5 56.5 Imports 24.3 24.5 26.4 29.6 32.4 34.0 34.0 Trade balance 18.2 18.2 17.5 25.0 27.4 21.5 22.5 -- Million metric tons -- Export volume 143.6 146.4 127.5 169.7 158.4 146.7 145.4 Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1995-97 October-December Fiscal Fiscal 1997 Commodity 1995 1996 1996 Forecast Dec. Feb. --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ 5.409 4.854 21.553 16.4 16.2 Wheat & flour 1.734 1.118 7.032 3.9 3.6 Rice .276 .304 1.004 .9 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ 2.318 2.339 9.338 7.3 7.3 Corn 2.058 2.093 8.369 6.5 6.4 Feeds and fodders .657 .670 2.627 2.7 2.7 Oilseeds and products 2.672 3.907 9.670 9.8 10.7 Soybeans 1.784 2.797 6.312 6.4 7.1 Soybean meal .271 .463 1.305 1.3 1.5 Soybean oil .105 .160 .272 .4 .5 Livestock products 2.127 1.890 8.067 8.7 8.5 Beef, pork & variety meats 1.115 .927 4.343 4.9 4.7 Hides & skins, incl. furs .399 .397 1.677 1.7 1.6 Poultry & products .714 .815 2.730 3.0 3.0 Dairy products .183 .174 .719 .7 .7 Tobacco, unmanufactured .434 .432 1.393 1.4 1.4 Cotton & linters .972 .684 3.028 2.1 2.6 Seeds .202 .282 .727 .8 .8 Horticultural products 2.614 2.781 10.029 10.5 10.5 Fruits & preparations .835 .813 3.319 3.5 3.5 Vegetables & preparations .598 .634 2.423 2.6 2.6 Tree nuts & preparations .463 .522 1.374 1.3 1.3 Sugar, tropical, and other .474 .535 1.888 2.0 2.1 Total 3/ 15.801 16.354 59.804 55.5 56.5 Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1995-97 October-December Fiscal Fiscal 1997 Commodity 1995 1996 1996 Forecast Dec. Feb. --Million metric tons-- Wheat 8.754 5.989 33.716 21.5 20.5 Wheat flour .132 .145 .470 .5 .6 Rice .773 .786 2.831 2.3 2.4 Coarse grains 2/ 16.872 16.290 58.656 56.0 55.0 Corn 15.074 14.571 52.681 49.5 48.5 Feeds & fodders 3.231 2.999 12.065 12.8 12.4 Oilseeds and products 9.144 12.706 30.759 32.7 33.6 Soybeans 6.873 10.067 22.372 23.7 24.4 Soybean meal 1.295 1.710 5.445 5.7 6.0 Soybean oil .168 .289 .450 .8 .8 Beef, pork & variety meats .349 .320 1.410 1.5 1.5 Poultry meat .606 .650 2.330 2.6 2.7 Animal fats .405 .261 1.376 1.6 1.4 Cotton & linters .543 .396 1.703 1.4 1.5 Horticultural products 1.838 1.829 7.139 7.5 7.5 Other 1.519 1.744 5.917 6.3 6.3 Total agriculture 44.166 44.078 158.372 146.7 145.4 Major bulk products 4/ 32.017 31.773 119.278 104.9 103.8 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1995-97 1/ October-December Fiscal Fiscal 1997 Region 1995 1996 1996 Forecast Dec. Feb. --Billion dollars-- Western Europe 2.867 3.018 9.533 9.1 9.3 European Union 2/ 2.768 2.902 9.171 8.8 9.0 Other Western Europe .099 .116 .362 .3 .3 Central and Eastern Europe .115 .144 .408 .4 .4 Newly Independent States 3/ .452 .530 1.667 1.9 1.9 Russia .331 .405 1.252 1.5 1.5 Asia 6.875 6.917 25.970 23.8 24.3 Japan 2.968 2.818 11.839 11.5 11.4 China .517 .777 1.829 1.4 2.0 Other East Asia 2.080 2.206 8.191 7.4 7.5 Taiwan .702 .735 2.928 2.6 2.6 South Korea .925 1.060 3.732 3.2 3.3 Hong Kong .453 .410 1.530 1.6 1.6 Southeast Asia 1.045 .929 3.381 3.1 3.0 Philippines .235 .221 .905 .7 .7 South Asia .264 .187 .564 .4 .4 Pakistan .156 .113 .394 .3 .3 Middle East .705 .622 2.593 2.1 2.1 Israel .146 .137 .626 .5 .5 Saudi Arabia .176 .146 .580 .5 .5 Africa .934 .614 3.192 2.3 2.1 North Africa .664 .387 2.259 1.5 1.4 Egypt .468 .251 1.533 1.0 1.0 Algeria .087 .073 .334 .3 .3 Sub-Saharan Africa .270 .227 .933 .8 .7 Latin America 2.274 2.771 9.973 9.4 9.8 Mexico .993 1.413 5.021 5.1 5.5 Other Latin America 1.281 1.358 4.952 4.3 4.3 Brazil .172 .169 .590 .5 .5 Venezuela .090 .123 .448 .4 .4 Canada 1.461 1.607 5.992 6.1 6.2 Oceania .119 .131 .476 .4 .4 Total 15.801 16.354 59.804 55.5 56.5 Developed countries 7.561 7.711 28.466 27.6 27.8 Developing countries 7.157 7.192 27.434 24.2 24.4 Other countries 1.083 1.452 3.904 3.7 4.3 1/ Country totals are adjusted for transshipments through Canada. 2/ Austria, Finland, and Sweden are included in the European Union. 3/ Newly Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU). Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 1995-97 October-December Fiscal Fiscal 1997 Commodity 1995 1996 1996 Forecast Dec. Feb. --Billion dollars-- Animals and products 1.467 1.617 5.907 6.2 6.2 Live animals .388 .382 1.551 1.7 1.6 Red meats .541 .585 2.251 2.2 2.3 Dairy products .324 .387 1.174 1.3 1.3 Horticultural products 2.636 3.031 11.643 12.5 12.5 Fruits, incl. juices .750 .958 3.810 4.2 4.2 Bananas and plantains .277 .283 1.177 1.3 1.3 Vegetables and preps. .734 .846 3.359 3.5 3.6 Nuts and preps. .140 .146 .530 .6 .6 Wine and malt beverages .712 .801 2.658 3.1 3.1 Nursery and cut flowers .228 .234 .946 1.1 1.1 Grains and feeds .679 .821 2.574 2.7 2.7 Grains .188 .279 .674 .6 .7 Feed and grain products .491 .542 1.900 2.1 2.0 Sugar and related products .268 .368 1.789 1.9 1.9 Oilseeds and products .481 .570 2.083 1.9 1.9 Tobacco, unmanufactured .165 .318 .770 .8 .8 Coffee, incl. products .763 .691 2.860 2.9 3.1 Cocoa, incl. products .318 .388 1.365 1.4 1.4 Rubber and allied gums .327 .354 1.441 1.5 1.5 Other products .405 .472 2.008 2.1 2.0 Total 7.509 8.630 32.440 34.0 34.0 Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports: Volume by commodity, 1995-97 October-December Fiscal Fiscal 1997 Commodity 1995 1996 1996 Forecast Dec. Feb. --Million metric tons-- Red meats .240 .255 1.024 1.0 1.0 Cheese and casein .073 .082 .243 .2 .2 Horticultural products 2.328 2.495 10.826 11.7 11.7 Fruits and preps. 1.417 1.489 6.695 7.0 7.0 Bananas and plantains .960 .953 4.007 4.1 4.1 Vegetables and preps. .853 .947 3.903 4.5 4.5 Nuts and preps. .058 .059 .194 .2 .2 Wine and malt beverages 1/ 4.179 4.546 17.795 20.3 20.3 Fruit juices 1/ 5.123 8.755 24.370 26.3 26.3 Grains and feeds 1.825 2.336 6.349 7.0 7.0 Grains 1.134 1.601 3.563 3.9 4.1 Feed and grain products .692 .735 2.786 3.1 2.9 Sugar, cane or beet 2/ .274 .433 2.733 2.7 2.7 Oilseeds and products .832 .923 3.345 3.6 3.6 Tobacco, unmanufactured .059 .103 .259 .3 .3 Coffee, incl. products .273 .288 1.109 1.2 1.1 Cocoa, incl. products .182 .212 .817 .9 .9 Rubber and allied gums .241 .276 .999 1.0 1.0 1/ Million hectoliters. Not included in horticultural totals. 2/ Imports for consumption, product weight. Includes imports of quota-exempt sugar. Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 1995-97 October-December Fiscal Fiscal 1997 Region 1995 1996 1996 Forecast Dec. Feb. --Billion dollars-- Western Europe 1.772 1.998 6.449 6.8 6.7 European Union 1/ 1.724 1.955 6.273 6.6 6.5 Other Western Europe .048 .042 .175 .2 .2 Central and Eastern Europe .080 .098 .223 .2 .2 Newly Independent States 2/ .012 .028 .180 .1 .1 Asia 1.238 1.417 5.372 5.7 5.7 Japan .078 .076 .284 .3 .3 China .113 .165 .545 .6 .6 Other East Asia .078 .092 .334 .4 .4 Southeast Asia .842 .942 3.589 3.8 3.8 South Asia .127 .142 .620 .7 .6 Middle East .113 .211 .420 .4 .4 Africa .163 .200 .850 .9 .9 North Africa .015 .017 .074 .1 .1 Sub-Saharan Africa .147 .182 .776 .8 .8 Latin America 2.260 2.461 10.839 11.5 11.7 Mexico .747 .794 3.716 3.9 3.9 Other Latin America 1.513 1.667 7.123 7.6 7.8 Brazil .260 .357 1.248 1.3 1.4 Chile .095 .150 .696 .7 .7 Canada 1.515 1.839 6.463 6.7 6.6 Oceania .357 .378 1.635 1.7 1.7 Total 7.509 8.630 32.440 34.0 34.0 Developed countries 3.722 4.290 14.830 15.5 15.3 Developing countries 3.583 4.048 16.652 17.6 17.8 Other countries .205 .291 .948 .9 .9 1/ Austria, Finland, and Sweden are included in the European Union. 2/ Newly Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU). 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